Tesla Bot Will Leave Wall Street Speechless

[@FarzadMediaINC]

Follow Larry on X: x.com/TeslaLarry PS: Ignore the spam in the comments. YT comments are cancer.

What the heck is happening. 95% of the comments are scam/spam, unrelated bullshit. I guess it's another kind of bot army in the background... Sad and disappointing.

[@STMcK2009]

Reported dozen bots or so as spam

[@polarlight1369]

This spam problem really makes the comments useless ... Too bad that X is not addressing this issue to date ... Come on, Elon - fix this cancer!!!!

[@anthonylosego]

Buy the dip!!! lol

[@Tree.house424]

I try to do my bit by reporting when I can, but youtube are not pulling their weight and looking after their user's

[@groundedtexan]

Forget manufacturing. You get a robot that can cook and clean and I’d gladly pay $20-25k. We could easily see one in 20% of the households in a few years.

[@joezen1693]

Exactly, cook, clean, security, assist. Provide a data log of events. Easily in homes

[@GlenDenilson]

Sounds like another electric car market. Guess what guys, I have retic 😂 These robots are truly the most pathetic thing consumerism has come up with. These robots are just very silly being 😂😂

[@ViridianFlow]

Big big BIG unwritten "IF" there, but yeah if even half of what Elon promises is true then it's a major game changer. Let's see if he can deliver on his promises for once.

[@Chris-gs7cq]

Especially for seniors with limited mobility who need some help at home. Keeping people out of assisted living is extremely valuable.

[@ChimkenRiceNuggy]

You are silly being ​@@GlenDenilson

[@trampfossil]

Farzad I had to relate this FSD episode with you, to make it short I just bought my new model 3 and had to pick up in Denver, Traffic and weather were terrible, Snow and Ice were Dangerous and had the 12.5.2 version, which had issues dealing with the snow conditions. but other wise was ok but not fantastic. then I Stopped to charge 1/2 way home less than 100 miles on the car, then updated my FSD to 13.2 It was like I drive, not like the 12.5 which was not as good as I drove at 14 years old. But then in the second half or the trip home on 2 lane mountain highway the 13.2 version was AMAZING, not only did it out drive my normal preformance for that drive but with 0 interventions in a 100 mile journey at night it came up on a group of 3 ELK (The Giant ones) completely blocking the right side of the road at 55/mph and without a honk, or a flashing headlight it Smoothly breaked and passed them on the other side of the road and then past 2 more Elk and a deer (the small ones) without batting an eye and signaling as well!!! SOOO much better than I have ever done without trauma or accident or even breaking a sweat!!!! I"M SOLD 1000% so amazing and that last 100 mile road was normaly a Traumatic experiance waiting to happen. so I was alert and expecting it not frightened nor traumatized as usually the case. THANK YOU TESLA FSD 13.2!!! THE WORLD NEEDS IT!!!!

[@restonthewind]

I believe you. Now explain to me how FSD will do my laundry. Even if you could load FSD v13.2 into a robot with two eyes, two legs, and two arms with five-fingered hands, how would it know how do my laundry? I understand how it learned to drive your car, but driving a car is only one task that human beings routinely perform, and it's not even a very complex task. Driving a car essentially involves navigating a carefully designed maze, designed to be easy to navigate, with two degrees of freedom, left or right, faster or slower. You have more degrees of freedom in one finger. Shaking your willy without splattering pee on the toilet seat is more complex, and many men never even master this task with a neural network far more complex than Optimus will have in the foreseeable future. Tesla fans who imagine Optimus replacing millions of human workers have seen too much science fiction. Tesla is nowhere near selling us Mr. Data for the price of an SUV. We saw what Optimus can do at WeRobot. It wasn't very impressive, and Tesla's catalog of training data hasn't expanded much since. You know from personal experience that the software makes all the difference in the world, far more than any hardware upgrade could make, but there is no Optimus software v13. Version 1 barely exists. FSD v13 took the better part of a decade to develop. Optimus software can only take longer, much longer.

[@trampfossil]

@restonthewind Avoiding 8 foot tall Elk on the highway which their movements cannot be predicted and Dealing with this randomness is exactly how your laundry can get folded!!! as for the rest of your doubts I think you should practice shaking loose your issues and buy the dip!!!

[@matthewg7702]

​@restonthewind Iterative improvement is the answer. Starting with simple tasks in controlled environments (i.e factory lines). More complex tasks will be fitted as we scale training data, improve hardware, improve energy efficiency, etc. So far there is no limit in algorithmically in scaling. Similarly to how CPUs started from thousands to billions of transistors today allowing for exponentially more complex computations. Optimus is being created at the assumption there is no limit. There are interviews with ilya sutskever that are a great listen. As for FSD v13 taking a decade, that includes developing the infrastructure which should be applied seamlessly towards humanoids. exciting times

[@tatata1543]

Based on a true story😂

[@edwardlinne2156]

@restonthewind I think people can train the robot at the factory home farm. This robot is trainable if they give you the capability to remote use it.

[@stvybaby]

Robots building robots. The machine making the machine making the machine.

[@ViridianFlow]

Venjent would be proud.

[@lidoz]

When sh*t hits the fan I come here for Tesla therapy

[@lidoz]

Also @Ferzad, for Tesla auto pilot updates, I think you can generate lots of views if you put a divider at the center console of a vehicle. Invite people to sit at the passenger seat… not being able to see if it is the car is self driving or not. And they would have to guess. Simple five minutes right and different riders. .. with each situation we get to see what’s the percentage of increase of people thinking it’s an actual human vs Ai

[@oasistobe]

This is the best channel for sticking head in sand for sure

[@SolarCleen]

@@oasistobe 🤣we voted for president EEELON AMIRITE?

[@thebestoffools]

Pump and dump channel.

[@lidoz]

@ we back up baby ;)

[@bennettera]

Sun Tzu: Don't let your enemies know they are doing wrong.

[@richpalmisano1740]

I remember when I went all in and this type of crap used to make me really nervous. Now, I just look at it as a buying opportunity. Buy...Hold...Repeat... Earnings are going to be great, the numbers for the quarter didn't meet WS expectations, but with all of the cost cutting, the increase in energy, we are going to beat.

[@Tien1million]

TSLA is back on sale guys.

[@ssing7113]

Were you buying at $95 a year ago

[@Tien1million]

@@ssing7113 I don't think it was ever $95 last year, maybe 3 years ago. I did buy it at that price point.

[@bruce7244]

It wasnt $95 a year ago​@ssing7113

[@MarcoNierop]

Happy New year Farzad and Larry!! That Wall Street doesn't get it gives us informed retailers a huge edge to buy more shares at a discount... With the big drop today I bought more shares today!

[@centuraxaum5951]

As most of the jobs get automated, new Jobs need to created almost at the same rate as they get replaced by the bots So that the industries don't suffer loss of revenue.

[@cybergigafactory]

I love your partnership with Larry! His posts are great and his knowledge should be spread though video! It’s much easier to understand like this. Thanks Larry for your time and work and thanks David/Farzad for getting this on your channel! Happy new year to y’all! 😅

[@peterjohn5834]

This is a very interesting and in-depth analysis from Larry. However, considering the closed shop and lobbying applied by OEMs to convince politicians to keep Chinese vehicles out. How will OEMs and Labour react to this possible future? Society may not be able to accept this rate of integration and change as the impacts will be massive.

[@Hakonhaarfagher]

this assumes that the demand for the products the bots will produce will remain the same despite the humans being replaced no longer has any income

[@205rider8]

Moral of the story is to ignore and quit engaging Gary Black. Nice guy but the analogy to Balmer is perfect!!

[@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck]

Ivy League rotted their 🧠🧠

[@markalan9368]

In 2020 I put a deposit on a cybertruck. The base model was supposed to be $39k. That didn't happen.

[@CarlLjungquist]

You are so correct! They still think it's just a car company. Hahaha....

[@Isaac-ev3nq]

Yeah not anymore, their sales are plunging in China and elsewhere.

[@t.w2000]

I think they know it isn’t, but Tesla is worth more then all other car companies combined. Elon is a genius, and a marketing genius. Tesla still extremely overvalued imo

[@t.w2000]

Tesla isn’t the only people making humanoid robots and they deffinetely aren’t the industry leader atm. Why are t the other robotic companies worth 500b-1 trillion usd

[@malax4013]

⁠​⁠@@Isaac-ev3nqWasnt it record quarter in China Q4 😂? Lower demand for Evs in Europe especially in german. Model Y refresh and cheaper model should help for demand but not seeing much growth for 2025.

[@johnslater7718]

They think is a car company with a p/e of 100.

[@jimlong2098]

The fact that Larry has to explain this for people like Gary to get a decent model speaks volumes.

[@80SWoods]

I can imagine the comparisons being similar back when automobiles were new while comparing the cost versus horses.

[@gregbrown7163]

Larry, did you include the employee costs of HR training, Heath care, 401k matches, etc?

[@darylfoster7944]

What if the bots go on strike and demand benefits?

[@macdolton7873]

Also consider that taxes to Uncle Sam will be different. But I’d expect the changes will be net the same. The company may still need to pay social security taxes for example. Or some “worker replacement” tax. Also local and state will need to get the taxes they usually take from our paycheck somehow. These will need to be added to the running cost for each bot.

[@darylfoster7944]

@@macdolton7873 Tesla will be paying massive amounts of income tax from bot profits, if there are actually millions of them. No need for specific bot taxes.

[@_cyber_dome_3986]

He also omitted massive cost for teams like Legal, Recruiting, Relations, Training, Janitorial, PTO (Paid Time Off lack of output), Industrial insurance + claims, Re-training, Turnover, and more.

[@kdungan100]

He listed fully loaded cost. That should include everything.

[@shanghaishebang1]

That's totally fine Wallstreet still don't get it.. It only adds more time to invest on the cheap!

[@anthonylosego]

That's probably the point of sandbagging. Ride the wave.

[@4D2M0T]

Oh they get it alright, the china bots will do everything Tesla bot can do for a fraction of price but they will most certainly contain spyware but most of the world don't care. Tesla is like apple. Most of us can't afford either

[@datamatters8]

Larry needs to include the tax on each robot for worker displacement. This is for retraining and supplemental worker support so they can afford to buy the products they used to produce. At the high rate at which workers are displaced this tax will happen as soon as these workers vote in an administration willing to levy this tax. As Cern Basher has noted there are many advantages of robots over humans even if the $ savings take longer to pay back. Namely, Robots Don't get injured or disabled No workers' compensation claims  Elimination of hiring, turnover, and training costs  Consistency/quality of work product  Can do all jobs, not just specific jobs  Can handle dangerous/hazardous tasks  No workplace harassment/discrimination  No awkward/drunk holiday parties  Less parking space needed  Less bathrooms, food service, and snack vending  Less middle-management  No labor-employer disputes  Don't need maternity/paternity leave  Can instruct them in any language  Bots continuously improve skills  Bots "happy" to work 22 hours / day

[@jonberrydotnet]

Humanoid bots will need a “face”. There are too many important reasons for immediate recognition where legions of Optimi walking around with no way to know which one to address will suck.

[@tnelly6588]

Optimus will take many years to get truly useful doing tasks requiring even just minimal complexity. When a bot can open a random box from Ikea and put together the contents (even using remote operations), I'll be convinced its ready for prime time.

[@dougm659]

Nope, it will not take many years…have you seen how fast FSD is improving? That is a guide to how fast Optimus will learn tasks!

[@theprofessor8219]

That's false. Minimal complexity is a lie. Building a table from instructions with physical accuracy isn't simple thats why most children can't until their teenage years. Look how it works now. It can mow the lawn TODAY. Fold clothes it can do so it's almost there lol😅

[@pr248]

@@dougm659 Both the hardware and software of these robots are primitive compared to what a human can do. Think about a simple task for a human to do, taking fresh ingredients out of a fridge and preparing those ingredients to cook a lasagne, this currently impossible for a humanoid robot. Take this simple task a step further, ask the robot to go to the shops to buy those ingredients and return home to put them in the fridge. You could have the smartest machine in the world, if it hasn't got a tool that can 100% replicate the function of a human hand then it is useless. Having anything that remotely resembles the functioning of a human hand is still many years away. Industrial robots are super specialised at what they are programmed to do and can repeat a single task with a frequency and precision that a human cannot and that a humanoid robot would be unable to do. Boston Dynamics have been making humanoid robots that are way more advanced than Tesla Bot for years and they still have no practical application for them. So it raises the question, what are these machines for? Why would you want to replace a human with something that is not as good as a human? It's not like we are short of humans.

[@_cyber_dome_3986]

Larry, for humans, hourly labor is the smallest cost. With a more wholistic “total comp” (vs hourly only), plus Admin we see MASSIVE cost through: 1. Health insurance subsidy 2. HR staffing (massive! think recruiting teams, management, relations and legal teams, janitorial) 3. Skill and process re-training 4. Unionization? (take industry avg) 5. Turnover rate 6. Product defect rate 7. Paid Time Off (no value add to manuf.) 8. Industrial accident insurance and claims. What am I missing? (or am I muddying the waters or missing bigger picture?)

[@kdungan100]

That is why he listed the fully burdened rate, which is about twice the hourly labor rate.

[@_cyber_dome_3986]

@@kdungan100 Thank you so much for both reading my post and the thoughtful reply. I’ll read up about fully burdened rates. Have a great day!

[@maxmccammond8914]

Robo-taxi and Robots will both be money printers + energy

[@sylvainh2o]

Robots are def the future. Robo-Taxi is another story since only a single accident brought to court could end the industry. If you 100% not responsible for any accident then Tesla is 100% responsible for any damage, injuries and death incurred inside and out of their cars.

[@4D2M0T]

What if governments don't allow them, like Australia doesn't like musk good luck getting self driving robotaxi in Australia

[@jwstolk]

Energy storage business is indeed very good. The batteries can stand outside and the regulations are simpler than for autonomous cars. Tesla sells their Megapacks with a 2% annual subscription for software and monitoring. That's 20k/year for each Megapack, for as long as it's operational.

[@richardhunt4576]

I want a bot in my house to be a friend and assist us in our old age. Massive market.

[@darealberrygarcia]

That is definitely going to happen

[@RobShuttleworth]

Hourly rate for a robot is hard to deal with. It could work better pricing for the action or process and provide incentives to improve.

[@TeslaCiviliz8n]

Wow, imagine confusing cost and value. The bots will cost $20,000. Price will be set by supply and demand. Demand will be very, very, very high.

[@darealberrygarcia]

Total Recall here we come!!

[@clarkewegener9197]

Industrial robots live in cages. If you open the door, they shut down immediately. I’ll be interested to see the safety protocol for having humans in close proximity to humanoid robots.

[@darrell7847]

Wall Street Understands very well what Optimus is, however, if this robot is not marketed and making Money, then they don't care whether it's amazing or not.

[@jonmcdonough4307]

Exactly

[@80SWoods]

Plus you can depreciate the expense of the robot and even sell it if needed. This is an exciting time.

[@mlhutche]

Governments will assess huge taxes to pay for the displaced workers.

[@Cyberbeesty]

The stock is getting crushed. Way too far into the future to justify the stock price.

[@darylfoster7944]

That's what a high p/e means, that the current price has borrowed from future earnings. That's why stocks with high p/e typically underperform in the long run.

[@WizofOz65]

Thanks for presenting this... nice summary

[@michaelnurse9089]

Adapting a fleet of Optimus robots to an industrial business will have an training process followed by fine tuning AI training - this may be expensive initially, or less so after some years. Home use would the same thing in every house - clean, cook, laundry, tidy, DIY - it is all identical.

[@rtorcato]

I wish Tesla would come out with the roadster. high margin, low volume halo cars are always great for the brand.

[@royvarley]

I know you didn't include the commercial space but I think that will be huge - outstripping industrial. Think about services like cleaning, basic maintenance, food and beverage - there's a vast market there. So I think we could conservatively double your industrial bot demand...

[@alanpedrick1562]

Basic delivery services like beverage diatributors I can see using these bots.

[@daxmickelson6884]

In general, wouldn’t the lower paying jobs be more dirty? Meaning that there is a higher repair or maintenance cost associated. Even if it is taking into account, disposable clothes or more often replaceable parts due to sand or gravel or what not.

[@NilsFrederking]

these jobs will not be replaced soon, it is factory workers doing repetitive tasks, in automotive industry, warehouses, shops, bakeries, supermarkets.........and so on.

[@swarupguha3463]

Larry is absolute genius...Major salute Thanks Farzad for bringing him...such a great piece to start 2025

[@budhicks101]

I have a small vineyard that will take as much work as I can give it. I absolutely know what I would do with a bot.

[@ivoopletal203]

4:40 the first two columns cannot be correct if the third column is correct (Ranking 2017 Czech Republic 10th with density 119 but Austria 12th with density 167 the same with Slovenia, Switzerland, Netherlands, Italy, Canada) ...Rank 2017 Czech Republic must be further than 20th place due to density 2017

[@FreedomFinanceFun]

Not until it makes profit margins go way up and sales effect the Balance sheet

[@radicalradzik]

Happy New Year Farzad! TSLA still on sale.

[@Tree.house424]

If they make it easy to buy them on a 5 to 8 year contract, then they will crush the market. Ppl will buy these like a phone, and ppl won't be able to live without one.

[@richb2229]

Larry has some good points, however analysts aren’t going to change until they can actually see Optimus in factories doing useful work. Demonstrations at parties isn’t enough for their spreadsheets. Also, they are going to need to see a business model case to complete those spreadsheets. To expect anything else is very Naive of Tesla Bulls.

[@pse2020]

The fact those robots where human operated did more harm then good.

[@brendan9698]

You know Tesla is not the only ones working on humanoid robots. They may not come out as the winners in this.

[@tarikviaer-mcclymont5762]

The thing is do retail investors wait until 2030 for alleged robots or do they take their money and and deploy their capital elsewhere.

[@liveslowsailfastonlanier1374]

Great insights and I like your thought process. As to Wall Street getting it or not, I am typically inclined to look at discounted cash flow. Tesla has great innovation and products but still needs to the business / cash flow model for this.

[@mathewherges397]

Another interesting point on the %change in robots from 2017 to 2023 is that, even though some of the change rate is negative, the amount of change is still positive. So, the robotics deployment market is growing. Gary stated it in a way, on Herberts show, that made is sound like a stagnant market.

[@michaelnurse9089]

Static robots are dangerous to humans and cannot move around - these are real drawbacks.

[@anthonylosego]

If you were going to invest, what would you say?

[@XXx-mk8dk]

Is it better than boston dynamics?

[@Kit_Bear]

The service and industrial sectors are going to be nothing compared to telepresence. When people are given the option of customization of their chosen robot then you are going to see loads of freaky custom jobs out there and that's what's going to make the most money for robotics companies. When people can choose to be an anime, animal, cartoon, celebrity, mythical or custom design robot then they are not just going to settle for just one, they will have many. When you can teleoperate one robot and have the others working in your home independently while you are "Away" that is going to be the highest in sales numbers and Elon knows it. Just think of the movie "Surrogates" for an example.

[@KaiGolf-b3c]

So this is how investors calculate ROI, really bean counting. 😅Obviously, I am not a financial guy. I wonder how they actually segment the market: humanoid robot vs. industrial robot? 🤔 Remember, humanoid robots also work in the service sector.

[@KaiGolf-b3c]

When it comes to humanoid robots, there are a lot more parameters in the equation than costs saving.

[@Haffy1952]

I just try to ignore all the FUD and buy more when it gets heavier. Thanks to all the Fudsters, LOL

[@mikeinsomerset]

I would like to see more videos of bots doing basic logistics tasks - picking packing etc

[@MarkPryor1]

I mean, I like that they don't. I was able to add on. I want it to go down further so I can buy more.

[@mikefendel]

Did I miss it or was there cost saving considerations for emplyee healthcare and other benefits? These savings could escalate the profits.

[@flottenheimer]

There is a huge difference between working on a ‘humanoid robot’ and having developed a fully working ‘humanoid robot’. Huge difference. There is no guarantee Tesla will succeed. Or when, if they do. All sane investors should factor that in.

[@nguyep4]

They are working on humandoid to be a fully working robot.. From the progress, the probability that Tesla succeed is higher than not. Investing is never a guarantee.

[@anthonylosego]

Fear is the mind killer. lol

[@laughinggas5281]

Do you think it's harder to create a functioning humanoid robot than it is to create a full self-driving vehicle? You might be surprised at the similarities

[@flottenheimer]

@@laughinggas5281yes, it is way harder.

[@Michael-jd5vf]

DCA is a good general strategy. But when it comes to Tesla, I have two recommendations: Never Sell, and Always wait to buy the DIP. There will always be a dip, just wait on the sideline, and snap a few when 10-20% drop. NAFA

[@chrismiller7661]

They will be only production constraint with respect to robots and same for cars (again) once FSD will be ready this year - not much later than AI5 release I guess. Supply chain analysis for Optimus might be interesting.

[@PaulSage]

They don’t get it - but thanks for another buying opportunity! 🎉

[@windowsdown3684]

U think $370 is a buying opportunity?

[@PaulSage]

@@windowsdown3684 compared to $480 (or $1,000)? Absolutely.

[@PaulSage]

@ compared to $480 or $1,000+?

[@anthonylosego]

@@windowsdown3684 Totally.

[@windowsdown3684]

@@PaulSage when do you think the rubber will meet the road with FSD Robo launching? It’s gonna pop fast when (probably not IF) that happens

[@arleneallen8809]

It seems like that the variable with considerable range would be the task specific training. Assuming that the bot comes with a complete physics model for interoperating with the real world, individual tasks might be easily trained via teleoperation or, better yet, bot observation of a human performing it. If the physics model is incomplete, i.e. the bot doesn't have the full range of weight, balance and proprioception for all that it is engineered to handle, the training would be much longer. I think your conservative maintenance views are spot on. Might even be greater since this is a large assembly of moving parts. I would hope that Tesla would have a comprehensive maintenance training and parts distribution such that companies could self-maintain. It would also be good to have predictive failure guidance for the various high wear parts so that companies could do preventative maintenance. Seems like this would all take as much as 5 years for high confidence. Here come the bots.

[@jack29816]

1:6 ratio for support is interesting. Why not have a bot to support higher number of bots?

[@garn5341]

I could be off here, but when Larry mentions China’s “four fold in 5 years” (@5:44)... I hope he meant to say times, not fold. A fold per year over 4 years would be 1,552 not 470… Unless “fold” no longer means what it once did.

[@pawelczubinski6413]

stock valuation only follow earnings, everybody know what's gonna happen, but too many investors aim at much shorter timelines

[@jonm.3173]

Larry is making an argument that looks at the sales opportunities that robots present. Sales projections, however, are not the only component in evaluating profit opportunity. The macro environment must be considered. His analysis does not include the long term impact that replacing workers with robots will have on the economy. When workers are replaced by robots, unemployment will go up. Higher unemployment means lower consumer spending. Lower consumer spending means less need for production, which means less need for robots. Robots on the scale that is projected will disappear the amount that is available for consumer spending by trillions of dollars. Robust employment levels drive the consumer economy, which drives corporate profitability. When money goes around, it comes around.

[@NoelRojas]

Great video man.

[@nolimit7185]

Loved this breakdown and very insipiring. Hopefully, the fluctuation in the currency would be minor since, i would also factor that in. It would be so cool to see how much money/time it would save for a middle class family with an annual income of $100k to justify that potential pricetag of $15-25KUSD.

[@robertboudreau8935]

The only thing I don’t agree with for Larry’s analysis is that he has the same cost for training for low level jobs and high level supervision jobs.

[@williebrits6272]

$25 000 is a lot of money in south Africa

[@Patriots2004]

great content

[@nickmcconnell1291]

Unfortunately Wallstreet will always discount TSLA stock. They are incapable of understanding what's coming. The stock will languish until multi-billions start pouring into the bottom line and then the stock price will go to the moon but only because institutions will want in and will be buying massive amounts of the stock. However even when it does Wallstreet still will underrate it. They are mentally incapable handling this change. This is why Gary Black is a useless barometer. He is part of the people not getting it.

[@anthonylosego]

Which is good for buying the dip. It's probably not so naive. Honestly, I think he sees it but wants to drive it down to buy more. I'd think that's a good strategy for making money.

[@johnslater7718]

It's p/e its 100, hows that discounted

[@darylfoster7944]

P/E is 115 as of today. That's hardly a discount. How many years of future earnings should be priced into the stock today?

[@nickmcconnell1291]

@ If they are pulling in multiple Trillions in profit every year by 2035 how much do you think that's worth? I would refer you to CernBashers appearances on this channel and on Brighter With Herbert for a full spectrum profit breakdown.

[@Nas_Atlas]

Once you've replaced all the workers with robots the management can all be fired lol. Conclusion: Humanoid robots are the ultimate disruption.

[@ChrisCoIe]

The real question is when will we get an irl codsworth??

[@martink6254]

I don’t disagree but someone please explain what will these bots be manufacturing or should I say for who when the whole premise is to make as many people unemployed and as a side effect homeless. It is a conundrum I can’t quite resolve in my head.

[@JoeVirella]

Gary Black is more noise than signal tbh

[@ssing7113]

Not really. Wasn’t he right in 21’ saying it’s going down……. No one else besides Gordon said that. No one listened. You have a huge issue when you try to write off the guy speaking sense 😂😂😂

[@JoeVirella]

@ lol everything in 21 went down. It was an overall market bubble. He got lucky that his comments aligned with overall market sentiment. Also, what about now? We hit all time highs as he sold of almost all of it in spring. His performance is abismal.

[@mr_cold-187]

Wouldn't the biggest key be in the training of the bots?

[@MarcoTrillion]

Gary is gonna block you Larry. What a knockout!! 👊👊

[@savagecub]

I will be impressed when I see Optimus thread a needle and sew a button on a shirt !

[@ssing7113]

I’ll get excited when I see a bot pickup a 90 pound wheel and change the flat… Before that, this thing is worthless.

[@Drew-wb2jo]

That’s definitely not happening, they are only able to lift around 45lbs and that won’t be changing

[@Dennis0824]

How often do you change a flat compared to how often you have to cut your grass or take your garbage out ? Get real!

[@darealberrygarcia]

And the battery will drain faster the more the strenuous of labor

[@Dennis0824]

@@darealberrygarcia With current battery technology that could be a problem but Musk is working on that as well.

[@Chris-gs7cq]

I'd rather change a tyre than clean the shower or weed garden beds. Lots of small regular annoying chores it could do.

[@Buran01]

Tesla car sales entirely stagnated in 2024, and as happens with the legacy automakers, is utterly unable to compete against affordable Chinese EVs. Good luck imploding in 2025, happy new year!

[@Dennis0824]

The mistake you and so many people make is defining Tesla as a car company. It is not. It is a tech company. Look beyond the number of cars that Tesla sells every year. Combine the potential of Optimus, Starlink, and SpaceX, as well as Musk's plans for X and you have an entirely different picture. Add to that, Grok 3.0 will likely become the no. 1 AI company in the world this year (also part of Tesla).

[@Buran01]

@@Dennis0824 Part by part: SpaceX is essentially bankrupt and survives through burning money from investors; they never made the Falcon rehusable sooner than 3 weeks, Spaceship never reached high orbit and has 0 cargo capabilities and the Moon mission is essentially dead (they already wasted all the NASA money). Autopilot will never reach level 5 autonomy (not without lidar or IR cams, and is lagging behind the Chinese brands, anyway) and finally about the AI: EVERY AI program is losing money, the developers are unable to find real world aplications which justify the insane energy expenses, Apple already did give up, and Chat GPT and the Meta and Google programs are all just money sinks in a giant buble which is going to crash and bur soon. Optimus having any chance of success is orders of magnitude MORE DELUSIONAL than Cybertruck ever was, and as we are seing (and some of us predicted) most of Felon projects are just a house of cards orchestrated by a oilsnake seller to get free money and flee away before it collapses...

[@babyUFO.]

No, Wall Street "gets it" while you do not. Right now, Optimus is nothing but another big expense.

[@bardz0sz]

Short term thinking

[@michaelsullivan3553]

Extremely

[@pse2020]

U cant invest in something that has not been proven yet... So far we have only seen human operated bots from tesla. So far it is a dream... Nothing says they will make it work as intended. Just like the robotaxi... Sure it has improved but not even close to the level we thought it would at this stage. So yes Wall street knows whats up.

[@Lerppunen]

The stock is almost double where it was a few months ago. Not sure if Wall Street is getting it.

[@daviddenley3512]

Thank you for making my eyes pop out on more than one occasion! 😳

[@SkitterB.Unibrow]

FarZad.... What will be more economical?......... Buying a Tesla and paying for FSD to taxi people around...... or buying a Tesla Optimus, and letting it drive an old 15 person Van or $2000 beater for taxi service (if Optimus is $15k)?

[@vsanden]

The graph at 7:59 seems very misleading or at least China has manny more workers than other countries so the density seems bigger there but the total must be WAY bigger than it looks like !

[@Raptorman0909]

We've been using robots for over 60 years, what Musk is pushing is a novelty. These robots will NOT be working in factories because they are WAY TOO SLOW and inadequately sensorized. Watch how it places things down on a table -- it doesn't place things down on a table it gets close then drops it. Sorry, robotics companies have had the solution to that problem for about 50 years. If you watch actual robots doing actual work you notice they are almost all based on the 5-6 axis anthropomorphic arms. What Farzad and the other Tesla Pumpers feed you is 100% BS! Trust what this pumper says at your peril.

[@Lerppunen]

Tons of humans work in factories, and robots will absolutely replace most of them.

[@Dennis0824]

Tesla has already 10,000 Optimus 2.0 robots working in its factories. While doing the work, engineers are analyzing and improving their functionality. Those improvements will be implemented in Optimus 3. For example, Optimus 2.0 hands has 13 degrees of articulation, where Optimus 3.0 has 24 degrees of articulation. Compare that to a human hand which has 27 degrees of articulation.

[@davidsc4680]

I think Optimus will first invade the domestic market. You don't need as much efficiency as an industrial application would require. Domestic bots can do a lot of things in a house, or even a hotel, more slowly, but almost non-stop. And many people are going to want one of these toys at home. At some point, the efficiency of the bot will be enough and the industrial market will be invaded as well.

[@martinmilne5275]

Cost of labour in China appreciated quickly during that period. Perhaps the tipping point for robots in China! Combined with declining population they need them for GDP growth.

[@danielbrowniel]

If I were rich I would want 10 to do my lawn and clean my house so I don't need to hire humans who could be evil and steal from me or hurt me.

[@mcdonnellpadraic]

This guy is awesome 🎉

[@willnurss4702]

Optimus bot costs: 1 per per 6 bots so that number should be divided by 6

[@gowanduff7501]

Great analysis and a way of thinking about the potential of humanoid robots. In Asia they are concerned with the economics of their demographic decline, so are motivated to use humanoid robots for production.

[@Linkinpark4life333]

Bought the dip ez

[@charlesrovira5707]

@10:01 _Soit-disant_ experts don't see the *_opportunities_* that humanoid robots when tied with LLMs (+Task Specific LLMs) represent. Combine that with point/point-out and trigger interfaces in vehicle control and the possibilities become overwhelming.

[@alwanig1able]

Whenever my wife nags and calls me names, I am glad I have Tesla, she he won't fail me.Thank you Farzad

[@jankohrasko5744]

I'm not worried about China taking action against Tesla (like closing its factory or changing laws) because of the bot. They know it represents the next industrial revolution-a force so transformative that a relatively small island nation like Britain could, by being first, build an empire and at one point account for a massive percentage of global manufacturing, despite having a much smaller population. This is a historical lesson the Chinese remember and frequently discuss to this day. Falling behind in this would be catastrophic, massively weakening them compared to bot-adopting nations.

[@MokeAnit]

You just explained exactly why China WON'T mess with Tesla

[@pse2020]

I am more worried china will outsell teslas bot with their own bots.. its poping out new robo companys in china every month now. Just like with evs.. they will outsell them.

[@jankohrasko5744]

@pse2020 if they do then they are the better civilization and will be on top for the next few decades.... and they would deserve it.

[@MokeAnit]

@@pse2020 even if they sell more, the demand for bots is several billions. Tesla & all decent bot manufacturers will be sold out for years

[@pse2020]

@jankohrasko5744 they already are the better civilization. The fact they already have more advanced tech implemented in their society and yet keep pushing for more advancement while we in the west have stoped inovating when it comes to society and its functions.

[@gbr562]

How many edits?? Like watching stop motion…

[@jonmcdonough4307]

I noticed that too, this video has more edits than words, which means they are trying really hard to make us see something that's not really there, or here, yet... all bullshit

[@mikahundin]

This is nonsense. Wallstreet has a better understanding of Tesla than Tesla fanboys.

[@colinkeizer7353]

Hi , Larry and Farzad. I would bet my own dollar that Gary copied the Industrial Robots row out of an existing spreadsheet, pasted it into his TESLA model spreadsheet, changed the name of the copy to Optimus Robots and eyeballed the formulas to make sure they all linked properly then called it good and moved on to whatever work he needed to do on the next company he covers. We are fooling ourselves if we try to convince ourselves the man has time for in-depth research like Larry or Cern would perform. He won't spend that kind of time or mindshare until somebody explicitly pays him to do so, or events force him to do so. That depth of work is simply not part of his business model. What do you think? Am I completely wrong?

[@colinkeizer7353]

If I'm NOT completely wrong, imagine what is happening right now behind the curtains on Wall Street as analysts begin using AI to supercharge their research. Soon, they will ALL have to compete at something approaching the intellectual level of Larry and Cern and Randy and Warren.

[@jonmcdonough4307]

@@colinkeizer7353 Yes, I think you are spot on.

[@palam012]

Pls don’t mention wall street in video title, better not to wake them up as we need to load more 😂