Tesla Cybertruck daily production numbers revealed

Tesla Cybertruck daily production numbers revealed
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#tesla #cybertruck #wrap #production #colors
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[@ArizVern]

I WAS 75 IN NOV 22, 2019. HOPING I'M LIVING TO GET MY CYBER TRUCK WHEN I'M 80 IN 2024.

[@edschultheis9537]

I'm certainly not in the market to buy a CT. But I am a mechanical design engineer and manufacturing consultant with over 35 years of experience. It would make no sense to ramp up production quantities until every single known bug is worked out of the design and production process. Assuming production is only 50 per day right now, they have a relatively small number to fix if they find a problem. If they force a ramp-up to 1000 or more per day before they are ready, then it will be a monumental mess to repair the many thousands in service if they discover a design or manufacturing problem. If a problem occurs at those production quantities, it could cause a shut-down of the entire assembly line until they get all the defective CTs fixed and the proper design/manufacturing fixes in place.

[@user-jh6vt8vx4v]

Well, then they shouldve stick with the old proven automotive iteratuon method. Building 10 to 50 engineering sample to test run and sort out engineering bug. Then, have 300 to 400 pre-production run to sort out production and Supply chain bug. Once the release day arrive, the production is ready to ramp up to full capacity. Model 3 and prior models skip pre production run. We all know what happened, tesla struggle for years before they can ramp up. The model 3 was the one almost break tesla, the fully automated assembily line was not even working when the line start moving. They have to call all hand to the floor to put the viechle together to so call ramp up. If it not ShangHai giga factory up and running with such absurb short time and support the model 3 sort out all the production issue, we may using pass tense to discussion subject relate to tesla right now. For the cyber truck case, it seems like model 3 and prior all over again. I guess they are having engineering issue get pushes to production phase and the production line is not even ready for delivery product at this point. If there are system level probelm, the may want to resort to test mute they made the engineering sample to at least the system is "clean" enough for the prototype viechle level prototype phase.

[@michaelsmithers4900]

Yeah I think they have learned a lot since 2017… but CT is completely new so one would expect surprises…

[@edschultheis9537]

@@user-jh6vt8vx4v We can speculate for days on what they should have or could have done in regards to ramping up production. But now the engineers, technicians, and managers just have to deal with what is, and make the best of it. Design and manufacturing processes are almost always at higher risk of problems if those stages are rushed too much.

[@robertfonovic3551]

She'll be right mate. In God ( Elon) We Trust. 😅

[@TheMagicJIZZ]

​@@user-jh6vt8vx4vyou just making stuff up You never mentioned the model y ramp..oh wait

[@jasontran8095]

Breaking news: Engine maker Cummins Inc. will recall 600,000 Ram trucks after using illegal software to cheat diesel emissions tests. The settlement includes a $1.675 billion civil penalty, the largest ever secured under the Clean Air Act.

[@stickynorth]

Never mind the countless de-tuned Rolling Coal Rams that are everywhere...

[@johnfrancis4401]

I wonder did VW the initiators of the cheat chip (that knew when the vehicle was being tested for its emissions) give the fix to Cummings?

[@Gunter_Custom]

Ouch . 😂

[@gregdean8441]

Who cares !

[@malcolmrickarby2313]

They have begun advertising heavily in Australia 🇦🇺 for the Ram 2500. Bragging about towing abilities. I hope that they are not just dumping their biggest polluting trucks here!🤬

[@stigbengtsson7026]

I think Tesla are doing a good job - It always takes some time to scale up - Go for it TESLA 👍😎👍 Best wh. from Sweden.

[@Dulc3B00kbyBrant0n]

u will buy the overpriced battery tonka toy that u can physically drive for now, then soon you will own nothing

[@dickritchie2596]

50 per day is an exceptional run rate given that it is a new thing. I would be impressed with 30. Each unit must pass QC before full ramp.

[@Nosaesoh]

I ordered my CT after the launch, and Tesla has reconfirmed the order (after being removed from the Australian order page) on the Australian Tesla page. So I hope to be one ooo the first deliveries in Australia... Definitely not canceling

[@tysonfinn1470]

Did you get the cyber beast

[@AndriasTravels]

Oh wow, won't everyone in Australia be looking at you.

[@robert7622]

Ill be on Mars before seeing a CT in Australia lol

[@TurnerRentz]

Good luck.

[@geoffgeoff3333]

Why are you bothering the FUDsters?! You know that being successful and optimistic triggers them. C'mon, man, show a bit of compassion for the galatically stoopid! 😂

[@MyGadgetsWorld]

I love my Cybertruck so much already

[@user-hb6kr5uw9d]

The great thing is in 5 years there still wont even be any truck quite as captivating..it will still be awesome...i mean it was announced 4 years ago...and now it still looks incredible

[@renegadezen7841]

Yep. Saw one in person and it was amazing.

[@benjacobs2560]

The disappointment with the Cybertruck is the range for the top spec. Everybody knew the price was going to go up because of crazy demand and inflation. When you say 500 miles range and the real world range ends up being half of that…people are going to complain.

[@mikafiltenborg7572]

How many People drive 340 miles Non-stop? 😂😂

[@benjacobs2560]

@@mikafiltenborg7572 The real range of the Cybertruck is 254 miles at 70 mph with one person in the truck towing nothing. That’s from 100% battery to failure. This test was done by Out of Speck, you can see the test on KZbin if you’re interested. For a city car, that’s totally fine but for a work truck I’m not sure that’s going to be enough. The VW IDBuzz only got 159 miles with same exact test. The EPA range test is just really not accurate. Obviously, this will improve over time along with charging speed but right now this is how much range these cars get in the real world.

[@MsAjax409]

The real-world range would never have been 500 miles either.

[@jabberwolf7348]

500 was supposed to be their extra large battery. That being said... The regular large battery was supposed to be 340 and turned out to be 250 in good battery conditions. So yeah. Tesla promises more, and delivers less, as usual.

[@monkeysezbegood]

I think a long range 2wd would be popular and cheaper than the 4wd

[@doylewillis9587]

Camouflage rap looks awesome

[@SolveFixBuild]

180,000 trucks this year is about $13B in new revenue. I’m glad everyone is being negative because it will surprise analysts as Tesla beats expectations quarter over quarter before they finally start expecting the numbers.

[@user-jh6vt8vx4v]

Model 3 didnt turn the delivery hell till 2019. Taking a 3 years production run, which is half of production life span is not really beeting expectation.

[@allangibson8494]

And the Model 3 is back in production hell - they made a design change at the start of this year that means none of the vehicles produced since November last year comply with Australian design rules… structural rework is required.

[@user-qf4ok4eh7c]

Last I heard the run rate for 4680 was about 800,000 per week. That would be about 600 CT per week, so I doubt the 4680 cells are the current long pole in the tent. Plus they must have a sizeable buffer to work off of?

[@nickrd182]

Telsa will get to 300,000/yr rate by end of year, but the next year...they will hit probably 1,000,000! And by then, they will have 1 or 2 additional factories either spooling up or already built and producing. It will multiply exponentially to meet demand.

[@ISuperTed]

Nope, they’ll never get to 1M CT’s a year run rate because they won’t even try it. CT is not one of their mainstream volume products like 3/Y, it’s more like an S/X product. Sure it will sell well and they may eventually get to 250K which means it will always be in high demand and profitable by then, but never much more than that. It’s model 2 and future volume models they are focusing on for growth and they won’t invest in more CT capacity in front of that.

[@ssing7113]

What are you smoking. Put down the pipe son before you break your head

[@AndriasTravels]

Exactly, the way Amoebas do. You have a great future ahead. I'm certain Musk will hire you as Deputy Chief Bullshit Artist.

[@TurnerRentz]

This is possible. The key is battery production and casting. The fit and finish problems from casting, plus battery can be resolved to a 250k run rate as is - and no company would ignore an order book 2 million strong. We should remember the CT was and is a prototype for a better way to build an EV and the lessons learned will go into all other models.

[@jabberwolf7348]

Im predicting by 2026 a BILLION CTs a year, the whole planet will eventually own one for 10K - because of scales of economy. 🤣 Gotta love Tesa fan bois 🤪

[@soup-nazi6824]

I remember watching a release day factory tour video & part of the production line was missing a couple of robots-the railing was there but they were waiting on new robots to arrive-they could still make cars just a bottle neck untill everything was set up properly...

[@MathewBoorman]

Yes. Watching that really did explain why it the prediction from Tesla is 2 years to hit the full expected rate. They have to get all the presses and other manufacturing steps done first, including probably many tweaks to fine tune quality, waste etc, before they start putting parts in the automated parts handling equipment in. All that extra level of automation is not required up front, and you want the manual quality checks on the early parts before you can either eliminate the cause and automate the checking.

[@davidbrayshaw3529]

It was a set! There was no "production line" to speak of. Have you ever been in a car plant before?

[@iainmrodgers9991]

The CT production line in Texas looks amazing. I think one of the Tesla engineers told Sandy Monroe it could churn out 1 CT per minute. The CT itself seems to have undergone a huge amount of testing. I think the reason for the low run rate at present is perhaps to make sure they don't introduce flaws by going faster or perhaps because they don't have all the components from suppliers coming through quickly enough yet.

[@user-jh6vt8vx4v]

That debug shall be done in prototype and pre production run phase. So, when you rool into actual production run, the design is frozen, the line is prime. 1 mins pace is typical car assembly line run. That means they should have at least 250k capacity. However, due to the back log, they should have running duo or even quadriple line. So, their real annual capacity shall be at millions.

[@davidhancock91]

Sandy is on Elon’s Pay roll . He will just parrot a Elon’s BS.

[@davidelliott5843]

It takes time for the production workers to get up to speed. But so much is automated it should not take long.

[@linemanap]

I believe he corrected Sandys 60 run rate and said more like 40.

[@iainmrodgers9991]

@@linemanap now you mention it, I think you're right.

[@raymondhon4661]

I just ordered the Cyberbeast but I was told that Tesla is focused on the AWD at a ratio of 9:1 AWD:Tri-motor. Hopefully, Tesla can ramp up The Tri-motor sooner than later. I have been waiting for more than 4 years and still have to wait even more for the beast, no fun : (

[@jsten1147]

I was quoted $13,000 USD to wrap a cybertruck in the Mtn. West.

[@alan8887]

Lets see what the consensus is regarding the Cyber-truck a year from now. Anything that ugly is a fad in my humble opinion, a desire to be closer to Elon by owning one of his trucks.

[@andrewvercillo6225]

50 per day is pretty good right now!! That’s more than Lightning or Hummer

[@danharold3087]

I was thinking about that too. But it is a different case. Elon said he expect the CT to be significantly profitable in 12 to 18 months from the deliver event. Ford and GM never expect to reach profitable scale on these. Ford said it was losing about 36K a truck. Maybe less now that the price is up.

[@lenm2857]

@@danharold3087 Ford sold about 12,000 in Q4 of last year, that's a lot more than 50 a day (maybe 150???). They had predicted (a couple of years ago) to still be losing money in 2024 and to break even in 2025. Not sure where their predictions are now, but they do plan on making money at some point.

[@danharold3087]

@@lenm2857Ford has halved Lightning production in 2024 due to falling demand. "Ford's next generation of EVs, which are currently under development, are expected to be more profitable than its current EV offerings." As I understand it. Ford dealer lots have a significant number of unsold Lighten pickups and Mach-e. Some dealers are still marking them up too much. To my knowledge Ford EVs are still running in a degraded mode to prevent a contactor from failing. I wish I could be more optimistic. I love the 1970s F150s. Have a stalled 1978 square headlight project truck. Nearly rust free.

[@wdbldr67]

I canceled my CT order. My place was 55,000. I need range for towing into the mountains. So now i will wait for either the Silverado or Denali and I'll wait for them to follow through with the NACS adoption. They may not be bullet resistant, but they have more utility than the CT ended up with and won't cost as much for 60 to 110 more miles of range.

[@danharold3087]

The dealer markup will more that eat the cost of a range extender. Check for yourself. Dealers have huge markup on trucks that don't sell and they do not seem to be lowering them. Checkout CarEdge.

[@alby2233]

I agree I don’t understand the negative attention and attitudes over nothing. It’s really sad so many people have fallen into this mindset over something they don’t own or like. Normally people would just move on.

[@davidblah-7215]

THANK YOU FOR THIS INFO

[@tysonfinn1470]

I already got my CYBRB5T plates sitting here to go on my cyber beast!!!

[@robert7622]

Yea why does the media only report on negatives like murders and crimes? Why not report on birthdays and parties?

[@JuanUsa-lw8tk]

Love watching this channel ❤️

[@mzrts9333]

I don't know man. I like how white cybertruck looks

[@halko1]

I’m going to guesstimate 40.000 CyberTrucks 2024 and 80.000 2025.

[@danharold3087]

What is your reasoning?

[@halko1]

@@danharold3087 I base my guesstimate on feelings. 😀

[@collegepros]

I’m predicting that I’ll get my Cybertruck by the end of 2027. 🤞 I’m about 750k on the waitlist. I’m also hoping they’ll be on gen 3 or 4 Cybercell by then. As I think about what’s holding back many ICE owners from thinking about switching, it’s the range. I’m specifically talking about my friends, and gf. They want more range for their road trips. After seeing the range test that ‘Out of Spec Reviews’ did from 100 to literally 0, it was only 254 miles. So disappointing. I need more than that to do the road trips I take.

[@airheart1]

No, you don’t. 150 miles will get you from super charger to super charger on just about every main highway in the US. Unless you’re towing, that range is plenty to travel. Even in worst case scenarios, it will work fine. The bigger issue is, that charge speed/ curve needs to be juiced up to reduce charge times. My guess is they are just being ultra conservative during the initial release, and it will improve significantly in the next.. maybe 6 months of data. I wouldn’t be surprised if they even up the range a bit with some software tweaking once they get more data from the motors. They did it with almost all the other cars when they were very new.. seems likely they will find further efficiencies

[@closrod335]

Get a vehicle with 80hp then … Driving a Tesla is similar to driving a v8 vehicle, similar HP and similar range …

[@collegepros]

@@airheart1 I agree. If they can get the charge time down significantly, then it’s doable. Right now, it would add about 2 hours extra to to the 800 mile highway distance on my road trips. That said, I still want my Cybertruck!

[@Nickolaughagus]

Trust me bud, most of the res holders will cancel due to the price hikes

[@verbal213]

@@airheart1I’m buying the Foundation Series AWD but you’re wrong when you say you don’t need more range. You say most major Highways but a lot of people like to drive on alternative highways or live in remote areas. Having more range without having to backtrack or take an alternative route is a nice luxury. If all you ever do is drive freeways then yeah it’s fine. But I prefer two lane rural highways for road trips. They are way more fun

[@andysmith5940]

I love stainless silver. I can't imagine putting a fragile, expensive wrap on my super tough truck.

[@autonomousworld9416]

Thank you for being positive about it

[@ThatOneScienceGuy]

I will say the truck is expensive however if you want to own a car for 3yrs and have it not only not depreciate but possibly appreciate in value during that time, buy a Cybertruck. It is going to be a big status symbol in the coming year(s) and will hold its value well as opposed to other cars which tend to depreciate in value relatively quickly.

[@darpompie4354]

That is some bold advise. Considering articles coming out today from rental companies taking a huge hit on financials due to poor re-sale value on their Tesla's. Here is some better advise. If you are relying on making an investment that needs to make money, Please don't buy any vehicle. The CT is a Luxury and a trendful status symbol one at that. Trends, like fashion, can turn on a dime. Cybertrucks are for people who don't bat an eyelash at wasting 80k on a truck. Spending those funds doesn't affect their life in any meaningful way. If the difference of appreciation /depreciation is what you need to base a vehicle purchase on, that means an 80k cybertruck shouldn't even be in the picture. I would hate for someone to lose their life savings because they think a truck is going to make them money.

[@DC.409]

Given annual US sales are what around 11 million, it underscores the view the Cybertruck is a halo product which consumers gravitate towards.

[@jonpetter8921]

Will you say about how bad their EPA range is prior to the advertised range ?

[@dune7824]

These will be so cool in 20 years time.

[@allangibson8494]

The biggest bottleneck is apparently the battery pack production because of reliability issues with the 4680 batteries. They are limited to 2000 battery packs per month at the moment.

[@larzlarz1140]

Exactly. 2,000 battery packs per month. That is why they were only able to make 24,000 cars at giga factory Austin in 2023

[@AllDogsAreGoodDogs]

Get non-flammable batteries. Redesign the CT with these. Test, test, test, then produce like mad.

[@allangibson8494]

@@AllDogsAreGoodDogs Actually any stored energy source is an explosion risk - the risk is proportional to the energy stored. If you tried to get gasoline powered vehicles approved now the safety regulators would shudder. LPG vehicles make the complaints about electric vehicles look like a skate board.

[@AllDogsAreGoodDogs]

@@allangibson8494 That is true, but the type of battery is a scalar of the explosion risk. 4680's raise it; other battery types may reduce it. Scalars come in above-1 numbers and less-than-1 numbers, after all.

[@allangibson8494]

@@AllDogsAreGoodDogs The biggest problem with the 4680’s is errors in manufacturing - it is much easier to get a fold in a cell layer with a bigger diameter cell with a longer wrap internally. GM had this problem with their large prismatic cells.

[@ANDR_U]

Finalize my order on my foundation series. Cybertruck. Have a definite number of how many foundation series there are

[@conantdog]

I ordered a ct on 12/2020. What's your gas on my configuration and delivery time . Im in Boston Massachusetts. Thanks . I think the cybertruck because of the advertising is going to be a bullet magnet in the cities of the United States. I'm considering matte black with small bat insignia.

[@mrmawson2438]

Morning mate

[@denniscerletti2244]

Can't remember where i saw it but the Foundation series might be the only cyber truck being produced thru the end of March is what i remember.

[@kingmiura8138]

WOW! GET YOUR CLOWN TRUCK...LOOK AT THAT THING! EVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT?

[@truhartwood3170]

I'll bite. 50k built this year with a run rate approaching 150k/year by year's end. 200k/year by June/July `25. 250k by end of `25. I think they may start another production line at that point if demand is high enough, but it has yet to be seen what the ongoing, long-term demand will be.

[@ISuperTed]

That would be good but seriously doubt they will even try t get more than about 250K a year on the CT. Tesla are focused on Masterplan 3 and the huge volume of Model 2 and variants of that will take the investment money, along with Teslabots to make them. This is the only way they will get the massive growth needed to expand EV ownership, everything else is secondary.

[@ssing7113]

Someone realistic for once

[@danharold3087]

@@ISuperTed I would not say you are wrong or right. Let me take the other side. While the CT is a truck. It is far more efficient than ICE trucks. The new processes will take longer to ramp. But once ramped actual construction is far simpler. The lack of paint alone could make up for the additional cost of the stainless. An army of tradition 3D welding robots replaced by laser welding on nearly flat panels. The CT could turn into a cash cow.

[@dannyfought7525]

Ultra red!

[@chiplangowski3298]

The backlog of refundable deposits that Tesla has is about 3 years of actual truck sales for each of the Big-3 truck makers. The backlog really isn't that big of a deal when put into perspective.

[@jjamespacbell]

It's not the current rate of production that matters its the ramp up delta that's important. Like all production you don't go from 1 to 10 and then say ok now we will make 1,000 per day throw the switch. Their are 1,000's of components, hundreds of suppliers, people to staff the lines and process that have to be 100% in place and to specification. Let's not forget many of the components and process are new even if they all work correctly, it is easier to make improvements and changes in the early stages than when you have $100,000,000 of product per day going down the line.

[@ThatOneScienceGuy]

I don't even want to know what the insurance premium on this thing is.

[@Christopher-ui8xe]

I would say most people have 2 orders and mostly for the benefit of selling for a profit basically there are most likely only 1 million real preorders at most

[@thehonesttruth8808]

I think you are optimistic at 50%; however, even if 10% convert, that’s well over 200k orders…that’s at least two years of orders just to go through existing reservations. As more people see these on the road and the capability, the demand will skyrocket and municipalities will also be ordering these trucks for various reasons including as police vehicles

[@oldbloke204]

@@thehonesttruth8808 Why would the Police want/need them?

[@danharold3087]

@@oldbloke204 List the things that make a good police vehicle.

[@jjamespacbell]

@@danharold3087 Why would the police want a CyberTruck? Acceleration ideal for chases and responding to emergency calls, Low maintenance and refueling costs Oracle already incorporating a large portion of the police vehicle computer and remote camera requirement using existing CT technology. The frunk and or "CyberVault" is a great place to store weapons, riot gear etc easy access probably set to remotely close and lock if officer leaves area. Also the cool factor as it already looks like a futuristic military vehicle. The Saudi police have large orders in place.

[@davidkoehler136]

almost not sound, could hear a thing

[@hvh377]

Where do you get that there is so much negativity around the Cybertruck? To me reactions seem pretty much universally positive. Sure, there is some criticism of certain aspects here and there, but that is completely normal for every new model. Show some evidence of negativity or stop inventing news. It's annoying when you do that.

[@kpop863]

its too early to worry about run rate. thaey havent even been building for that long. by end of 2024 they should be able to get north of 200,000. thats good enough for this build at one factory.

[@stickynorth]

I suspect both Texas and Mexico facilities will be pumping out Model A's and Cybertruck's a full speed soon enough because the demand for those vehicles in North America isn't going away anytime soon. And since Cybertruck's are BARELY legal anywhere due to their size and strength? I suspect the backlog will be cleared up by 2026 or 2027... Provided more people don't rush in and order it... But with it being the most polarizing vehicle on earth, I suspect it won't suddenly see another rush for orders like we did back in 2019... I personally love it but realistically and budget wise? I'm going to get a Vinfast VF3 to replace my Smart Fortwo here in Alberta...

[@howardandersen19]

Looks like Ford and GM are in big trouble and I’m ok with that 🔥

[@mahealanihawaii9830]

I'm holding out till the range is better. When I ordered one years ago, the range was stated at 500 miles. 257 miles seems to be the actual number. Tesla is working on a new battery. Fingers crossed.

[@AndriasTravels]

Tesla is not working on a new battery, the 4680 Pack they are using now has problems they can not solve.

[@docsnider8926]

Sandy Munro revealed that there is a lot of laser cutting to manufacture the stainless steel sheets. This is a slow process and difficult to scale. The slowest part in a production chain is the most important for speed. Gigacasting is fast, but brings no benefit.

[@FJBandtherest]

Maybe it is the green fire insurance for homeowners being canceled. They get fire hesitancy. If only someone could have first invented a fire extinguisher for thermal fires. How much damage is caused by one ev fire?

[@danielstapler4315]

Will Tesla go right thru the order list and offer everyone the option to buy a foundation series or have they said what the limit to the F series is?

[@thehonesttruth8808]

I think they go through all preorders and see who will bite on the higher price…I did and feel a bit dumb but I want my truck now

[@chiplangowski3298]

As with most "Limited" editions, they will limit sales to the absolute maximum number that people are willing to buy.

[@audience2]

50 per day sounds alright for this early stage of production.

[@rays2506]

It's all about the battery pack, 125 kWh capacity. The EPA range estimate is ~320 miles. Last week In Spec Reviews got 254 miles and 124 kWh used in their 70-mph range test in Austin, TX. kzbin.info/www/bejne/oWbIeKivmJiSiZY They also did charging tests in Austin and the resulting charging curve was disappointing. kzbin.info/www/bejne/iJ-oZGeeeqhpa6M Evidently, that 125 kWh battery pack with 4680 cells is being used in the early CTs to keep the price down and to maximize the number of units Tesla can produce per week with the present cell production rate. The battery situation is not critical (yet), but a lot of improvement needs to happen during the next 12 months.

[@h2rider953]

Ran rate will be as fast as Tesla can make them, hopefully it will out sell the Legacy Auto EV pick up trucks in 2024.

[@TheCostofAutism]

I think Tesla is aiming for Ford's crown and by the end of the year, they might be as high as 300,000 a yr. I think if the battery is to become an issue they're going to come out with a standard range model with Chinese batteries. Additionally once they work out the kinks in production, is it going to copy and paste production to Berlin, Shanghai, Mexico, Canada, India and Brazil. Sandy Monroe himself set the capex for building out production lines on cybertruck will be half if not 1/3 the cost of F-150 production lines CAPEX.. so if your cost per line is that cheap it makes sense to localize production everywhere. Maybe even in Australia. Tesla is not going to get production to 20 million per year until they massively scale up their production.

[@danharold3087]

Tesla has 3 other battery companies including Panasonic working on 4680 cells.

[@TheCostofAutism]

@@danharold3087 I know they have several other companies working on batteries but the way I see it is Tesla will probably rent production before those factories open.

[@danharold3087]

A bit monotonous repeating this so I am posting it at the top level. Tesla can build 4680 cells using 1 dry and 1 wet electrode. It simply cost more to have the 1 oven Less costly than a line with 2 ovens. 3 companies including Panasonic have 4680 pilot lines. Tesla has outside companies working on high nickel cathodes and more. The 4680 is a good battery format.

[@beautifulgirl219]

I'll just estimate it may turn out to be twice whatever we think it will be, based on current estimating. Tesla is still a tech innovation company first and a manufacturer second. Innovation in every aspect of the business being their historical pattern, you don't know what will contribute to increasing production in an unanticipated way.

[@dylanthomas12321]

Wrong. The reinvented manufacturing. Why do you think everyone's copying them.? study history of manufacturing before spouting off.

[@litestuffllc7249]

yes Dan problem is Tesla announced Cybertruck with the 4680 4 years ago. They have quietely dumped the original 4680 w 16% higher energy density and supposedly fast charging for 10% more dense and not fast? KZbin videos indedently doc Cybertruck range 250miles flat ground 73f no load; time to charge 70% 1 hour. So this Tabless battery isn't achieving anything and they can't make them effeciently - they could have gone with regular cells - but - now they are stuck.

[@stevelouie5928]

When is 80k a reasonable price for a work truck?

[@martinbeaumier7172]

I think Tesla will need another production line for the cybertruck

[@noleftturns]

I was watching another KZbin where Tesla offered them a Mad Max truck if they wanted to buy one the guy said he was number 50,000 in the reservation line and that means 95% of the folks who have a reservation are telling Elon to take a hike This is not a good sign for the Mad Max...

[@TurnerRentz]

Agree. It's the battery, and the battery situation is looking better all across the EV world so I'm one vote this is a solvable problem. The Cybertruck is the model T of the 21st century. The model T launched at a low run rate in 1907, at a price point of over 850.00 per car, and it improved to a massive run rate at 250.00 per car. The casting techniques are already in use. However, overall agree with the viking - it's the battery - that battery is a bear, and there are new ones that are better and the architecture supports them well. 48v rocks.

[@jamessimmer725]

Demand for the Cybertruck far exceeds production. Classic economics says that Tesla should maximize profits, which means sell Cybertrucks at the highest price that sell all cars produced. From an economics perspective (which is the correct one), it is not proper to say the price is too high. Tesla/Musk has been textbook smart in lowering the price of its cars to the highest price that sells all of them--they should be commended (highly). As production ramps up, the price will fall according to this strategy. The high prices will motivate Tesla to ramp up production as fast as possible--while taking care that the job is done right. The Cybertruck is so desirable that it's going to take a lot of patience on everybody's part.

[@jstar1000]

I dissagree the matt white is my favorite color along with the gloss black. Tent those windows dark and man that white is the shit.

[@wayofflow955]

4680 production at 10million cell per quarter 2 lines 7812 cybertruck per quarter 86/day 607/week

[@Agent77X]

At least that good news for Tesla - 30 years!😊

[@peterwatts65]

From something I read recently they just can't make the 4680 cells at the rate Space Karen promised (oh what a surprise !) and of the ones they do make a significant proportion have to be scrapped either immediately or some time, maybe months, later (very worrying) If they solve this problem quickly then maybe they get to a run rate of 100k by the end of the year, if not then they will be lucky to do much more than they are doing now so say 25k which means people are gonna be waiting an awful long time for their over-priced, short-ranged, white-elephant metal monstrosities - you never know maybe the ones delivered in 2050 will even come with fully functional self drive 😁😁

[@danharold3087]

As Tesla ramps the truck they are increasing battery production by building more lines. 8 planned in Texas. Tesla keeps improving the 4680. One can pick and choose news to see anything you want. The bad stuff gets recycled. Not so much the good. Seems to be a concerted effort to ensure TSLA does not rise with the model 3 refresh release. My feeling is that social media milked the PR value of that car dry by the time it released. No fears on it having a impact on TSLA.

[@TurnerRentz]

Agree - at least a 100k run rate from what I'm seeing.

[@Beatles4Sale.]

Go visit Kyle and his thoughts on the 4680 and charging. Not good…Tesla has an interesting problem, ramping 4680 or gain more efficiency before ramping. While the 4680 has not turned out to be as good as what was presented at Investor Day (so far), I do think they’ve reached the point of feeling good about the ramp. They should have four lines by the middle of the year (4680). Possibly eight by the end of the year. That would be amazing.

[@paulkearsley9509]

Tesla dug their own grave with 4680 battery before digging their own grave with CT

[@royphillips7644]

Yeah, they’ve dug a lot of graves, but they’ve never jumped in.

[@Myrslokstok]

Whatever color because you will be pretty unik with it, and you could unwrap it later on! But raceinggreen is nice for a offroad sportscar I think!

[@cjs1948]

While I am an optimist on a lot of things, we can't wait too long for a full ramp. Some of us will have passed away. 😪 Although I suppose that would make the wait list shorter... 🥳

[@danharold3087]

If the waiting list does not collapse Tesla would logically duplicate the assembly line as required.

[@AndriasTravels]

I doubt many Boomers are on a waiting list for a CT, they are on the list for a CT scan.

[@nextechsolutions5955]

What’s the story with the Lithium Processing Plant they’re building in Texas?!?

[@muchdumb]

There are only 2 questions that needs answering. Will there be a right-hand drive version and will it be sold in Australia? All other questions are meaningless 🤣

[@oldbloke204]

Hopefully the answer to both is no.

[@tomyocom5886]

The #1 Automotive industry in America is TRUCKS. GAS and DIESEL trucks being number one they have to try to destroy competition rather than make fossil fuel trucks better.

[@Ohan1]

I was going to milk my current car 2006 dodge charger until my cybertruck order came through but I recently got rear ended and need a vehicle sooner than expected which is disappointing

[@WilliamtheWilliam718]

Lease a model 3 highland , you'll still get the tax incentive but won't be able to buy it af the end...

[@MikeKisil]

Could you do a telo ev truck California usa

[@yobesondieki1]

Tesla will scale and ramp up as they always do so no issue there and I’m happy to wait 3 or 4 years if that’s what it takes to receive a CT. Speaking selfishly from Australia though, I have just heard we’ll never be allowed to own a CT in Australia due to the bullet proof exoskeleton as it’s illegal in AU to own an “armoured” vehicle. Does anyone have any understanding of those legalities?

[@todd1771]

So they expect to 4x that rate by summer to get to 75,000/year.

[@jaimz33]

It reminds me of that heap Homer Simpson built in his brothers car factory

[@ouethojlkjn]

I remember hearing all this doom and gloom rubbish in the media when the model three first came out. it seems they have that working smoothly and the model Y. 1.8 million cars in a year. They will figure it out.

[@litestuffllc7249]

Well if the "run rate" is suppose to be 50 per day; they aren't producing that; to date you can watch every day's drone flight - on youtube total production is 225, as of 9 Jan 2025. After 4 years Tesla quietly dumped the origina 16% more energy dense 4680 and went to a different chemistry and 10%. Worse now you have independently documented range and charge time. Range 70mph 73f flat ground 250 miles empty. Charge time to 70% 1 hour. Tesla needs a totally new battery or go back to normal cells and increase production. Unlikely they will make 50,000 in 2024.

[@danharold3087]

Tesla has 3 other companies including Panasonic working on pilot lines for their version of the 4680. Other companies working on high nickel cathodes. And possibly other things we don't know about.

[@user-bz4we6ni3v]

I am hoping for 250,000 per year by the start of 2025, but that is likely optimistic. My order is around 1.3 million, about 50% drop out and I get my base model truck sometime around the end of 2025.

[@linemanap]

You'll be lucky if they are making non foundation series trimotors by that time.

[@tysonfinn1470]

If it aint a cyber beast it aint worth talkn bout

[@user-bz4we6ni3v]

I want the whole house battery@@tysonfinn1470

[@user-bz4we6ni3v]

Time will tell, with the steer by wire, 48 volt architecture, 40 Amp 220 volt home charging, 4680 batteries and four wheel steering there are lots of new technologies. If all goes well, those are also the reasons that I expect the ramp could go much faster then expected. @@linemanap

[@louis-philippeleblanc1570]

A third party should take over weak battery part. 500 watt/kg battery should give the truck it's tow range.

[@andreandre1051]

👍👍

[@xmanual]

I don’t mind the matte white. It looks like something a storm trooper would have in his garage.

[@billylanderos6227]

There is a vehicles channel that placed their deposit for the cyber truck. They asked someone in the company what their number in line was based on their receipt code given. They were around 49,000-50,000. They just contacted if they were still interested in having there truck made. So this tells me that not all people who put their money to be in line are actually getting the truck. So they should be able to make the truck for those actually interested.

[@westmaui]

Also should be faster if you are getting the higher end model

[@number1genoa]

If the early promising start continues perhaps new customers will keep the backlog high despite some deposits not being realised.

[@TheDarinseng]

@@westmaui Nope, I am in for a Tri Foundation Series and all of us (contacted) other Tri's have estimated delivery dates of Mid-Late 2024. Dual CT's I am seeing for Foundation are all going out early to April. As much as I want my CT (killing me), I am ok with waiting a bit so the production line can work out any bugs before I get mine.

[@ISuperTed]

Most people on the order list will never get one, but given how many there are on the list there’s still huge demand. When he base version is available to order there will be another surge. I suspect many ordered so they could flip for profit which is not going to work so will cancel and economics have changed hugely since 2019 so a lot more will drop.

[@tysonfinn1470]

​@@TheDarinsengive got my CYBRB5T plates ready to put on

[@DraftedByTheMan]

They should be making enough batteries (about 9 million) in January to produce 200 CT per day. By December 2024, they should get to 65 million batteries a month which would produce 1600 vehicles per day. I’m about 800,000 in line so that would get me my CT sometime in 2025.

[@ssing7113]

Elon already stated it will take years to even ramp to 250k a year.. You’re waiting 4-5 years

[@DraftedByTheMan]

@@ssing7113 He said it would take 18 months to ramp up to 250,000. Going by the battery production ramp up, I’d say he’s either sandbagging or being very conservative.

[@danharold3087]

@@ssing7113 Yeah and he also said we will make as many as people want.

[@nightshadowblade]

Your estimations seem overly optimistic. My estimations: 2024: Actual CTs: 30-40k EOY Rate: 60-70k 2025: Actual CTs: 90-100k EOY Rate: 160-180k 2026: Actual CTs: 205k EOY Rate: 230k 2027: Actual CTs: 240k EOY Rate: 260k

[@sparkysho-ze7nm]

We need ta b building batteries

[@treborheminway3814]

They can't scale up until They have a dbe cathode. Huge issue most overlook. All the bandaids they are currently using using won't scale. Why do you think they canceled the 4680 mY. It's not ready and you can't force it. They are in a tough spot.

[@danharold3087]

The goal of the 4680 was to cut cell costs by 1/2. Tesla can easily build lines with one dbe and one wet electrode. Will be more economical than 2 wet electrode production. Panasonic, LG Energy Solutions and Samsung SDI have 4680 pilot lines. Tesla has tapped China's Ningbo Ronbay New Energy and Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing to help trim materials costs as it ramps up ... Also recall a cell manufacturer working on high nickel cathode for Tesla.

[@treborheminway3814]

@@danharold3087 it looks like that's what they will have to do, but that cuts the savings in half and 10x cathode factory equipment and floor space they didn't plan for. Not to mention the added solvent handling equipment and environmental and safety aspects. All that equipment doesn't just appear out of thin air. This is a major departure and while you spin it as still a good thing, I don't think it's great. The CATL MP3 or whatever they call it now looks to have many advantages in terms of charging and lifespan. I'd rather have that. Safer, charges faster, better cold weather, not structural or is it? ( Rumors of that coming fast) I don't mean to sound like it's terrible, but I'm surprised and disappointed in the lack of progress given the hype at battery day and all the products that hinge on it. I really hope they get a DBE cathode soon!

[@charlesgreen7408]

Matt black shows less wave in stainless steel

[@andrewroberthook3310]

They will build more factories

[@TechRyze]

TBH, I only want mine in 2 years time, when the bugs have been worked out, and these wars have been fought, giving the current high interest rates a chance to fall. For now - invest that money and be patient!

[@intellectualraven4411]

Im ready to wait 35 years for 35k usd cybertruck

[@danharold3087]

I don't expect to make it to 103. If I does I sure hope it come with FSD LOL.

[@donaldparry5157]

I'll be 110 in 35 years (self-driving CT with a 6'x2'x2' SS CT coffin option)!!?

[@intellectualraven4411]

Well in next 35 years robots will already have taken over us … maybe we will be the horse carriages for their chariots 😂😅

[@danharold3087]

@@intellectualraven4411 We can imagine all sorts of bad things regarding AI. But we can also imagine good things. Few people are doing that. It is unpopular to do so. AI is bad! Actually it's not.

[@danharold3087]

@@donaldparry5157 Cremation here. Less chance of being reanimated as a zombie or worse.

[@DavidSL64]

I don’t believe that number. If that was the case, basically all our Foundation series order holders would have their trucks or been told we would have them in the next couple of weeks, ie by end Jan latest. Rather, unless one is a Tesla employee or some how affiliated with Tesla, we’ve heard nothing. Furthermore, Tesla local sales people say they know nothing as well.

[@truhartwood3170]

Yes, I'm curious what the source of this info is. Like, maybe they built up a bunch in the factory over a few days and then brought them all out on the same day or something and people are calling that 50/day. I would be surprised if this is true. 50/week would sound a bit more reasonable. I won't be sharing this stat until there's more confirmation.

[@thehonesttruth8808]

Depends on how many Founder Series they are planning on building and how many battery packs they can produce to meet demand for their other vehicles domestically and internationally

[@linemanap]

Fifty per day sounds very reasonable. Modern car factories have run rates of around one per minute. Remember you fill the line and then it's just a matter of placing a few parts per station.

[@truhartwood3170]

@@linemanap None of that is new information. We're talking about getting a whole new production line of a very new vehicle up and running with tons of new, bespoke manufacturing equipment, processes, materials, electronics, etc. That's a whole different ball game. They're going to be going over almost every truck with a fine-tooth comb looking for any defects or things getting out of alignment and fixing those and relaying that back to the factory floor. It takes a long time to get everything dialed in properly.

[@rozonoemi9374]

At those price, $20k more than my reservation number is way to much. If price don't come down, sales will suffer.

[@danharold3087]

When people look at the out the door price for the other electric pickups that CT is priced about right. Maybe the better priced.

[@rozonoemi9374]

@@danharold3087 To much for me. I'll wait for the 2 WD Cybertruck which is more in line with my budget.

[@BlackBuck777]

I doubt Tesla will ever build CT in large numbers - say +50k/year - unless the price goes up massively. It's not going to be profitable enough compared to the 3, Y and proposed small car (A?) all of which can be built with fewer resources. It's great to have such a madly odd vehicle out there as a halo product and test bed for different things, but it'll never last. And I say all of that as a long time and very happy investor.

[@danharold3087]

As I said above. The new processes will take longer to ramp. But once ramped actual construction is far simpler. The lack of paint alone could make up for the additional cost of the stainless. An army of tradition 3D welding robots replaced by laser welding on nearly flat panels. The CT could turn into a cash cow.

[@BlackBuck777]

Agree the new construction processes simplify matters but I remain sceptical regarding the longevity of the project. I suppose I'm looking from a UK/EU perspective which doesn't account for the voracious need for this type of vehicle in the USA, as demonstrated by the F-150 (I think?)