The 4 Key Threats Facing The West | Niall Ferguson, Konstantin Kisin & Francis Foster

1. The ‘Axis of Upheaval’ - China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. These four nations, Niall Ferguson says, are working with increasing cooperation and coordination, threatening democracies the world over. “Ukraine is one, Israel's another, Taiwan is probably next.”
2. The one-sided arms race - The USA used to be the ‘arsenal of democracy’, Niall says, but now it has fallen well behind China. “China is now the ‘arsenal of autocracy’” and, in the event of a hot war with China, “the US would run out of precision missiles in about five days, more or less.”
3. China’s economic power - “China has much greater resources technologically than any previous rival that the United States and its allies faced. The Soviet Union never had more than about 42% of the USA’s GDP.” China’s is “certainly in the 80% range and is above 100% if you do a purchasing power parity calculation.”
4. The USA’s worryingly low economic resilience - US debt servicing costs are about to overtake defence spending. “With interest rates rising and the deficits in excess of 5% of GDP as far as the eye can see…the US isn't actually able to cope with three military crises at once.”
In this week’s ARC Off-Stage Conversation, historian Niall Ferguson meets Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster of TRIGGERnometry to discuss the future of Western civilisation. Konstantin and Niall discuss some of the major threats we are facing, but Niall reminds us that these are no worse than those faces 50 years ago. The 70s saw huge inflation problems, deteriorating geopolitics in many regions, and concern about morality. But by 1980, “Ronald Reagan is elected. Nine years later, the Berlin Wall comes down, and two years after that, the Soviet Union's gone.”
Yes, the West currently faces serious problems and threats, but decline is never inevitable. We must remember our history because, despite “the declinists’” obsession with crisis and collapse, there is always hope for renewal.
We hope you enjoy this fascinating discussion between 3 world-leading commentators.
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Konstantin Kisin is a political commentator, and TRIGGERnometry host.
Francis Foster is a writer, speaker, and TRIGGERnometry host.
Niall Ferguson is a renowned historian, Stanford and Harvard fellow, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
Watch the full conversation on TRIGGERnometry's channel: • Niall Ferguson: How Ci...
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00:00:00 Debunking Cyclical Theories of History
00:02:10 Comparing Today's Challenges with the Past
00:04:30 Niall’s 4 Threats Facing The West
00:07:55 Understanding How Civilisations Fall
00:11:30 Explaining the Nihilism of Younger Generations

[@australiasindustrialage689]

The diffference was 50 years ago that people in the west were united in the idea of nationhood. An Englishman understood what being British was, a Yank knew he was American, an Australian understood that he was Australian. Today, that is not the case. Young people despise their culture. If people hate their culutre, how can it survive?

[@lawsonspedding6136]

The ‘difference’ is that the young people are brain washed and indoctrinated by a political woke teaching base that insists that the western nations are evil and should be ashamed of their historical past ! These young people believe all that they are told, without a scintilla of intellectiual curiosity to check the factual truths and challenge with an alternate opinion !

[@horatioguderian4694]

50 years ago those countries were white, now they're "diverse". Diversity is a codeword for White GENOCIDE.

[@shankerram6076]

The so called "left democratic liberals" are freely aligning with islamic terrorists: why? Look at the British; they are NOT opposing sharia law!!!

[@botidobra6221]

99.99% of people are nationalists and some are Marxists(even most "Marxists" are Slovenian, Jewish, Palestinian, Turkish, Somali, Ukrainian nationalists in disguise)

[@botidobra6221]

In the US less than 50% of young people are white. Black, Arab and Hindu nationalists do not support Israel or Ukraine because they are "white" Demography is destiny. Just like in Ancient Rome or at the fall of the Soviet Union.

[@chriswong9158]

"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we lose our freedoms it will be because we have destroyed ourselves from within" - Abraham Lincoln.

[@Khan_is_mongol]

"Chris" Wong LOL. you must be from Hong Kong, ashamed of having Chinese name

[@henryburton6529]

Putin Xi and their troll farms: “hold my beer”

[@kevoreilly6557]

He was right, but what he meant republicans don’t understand

[@adamheld2971]

Lincoln did not know what hybrid war is. US is being hijacked by islamists powered by Iran and Qatar and leftists powered by Russia.

[@ricochet2977]

@@kevoreilly6557 He didn’t mean that at all! That’s just your interpretation of what he said and the continuation of division is what’s causing the problems, it doesn’t seem you learn anything from this discussion.

[@leahschatzki1387]

Young people are lonely. When they join crowds that loneliness goes away. That is a huge driver.

[@TTFN55]

OhhhMuhhhGosh! I think you have nailed it so soundly that I'm embarrassed I didn't think of it. Brilliant!! Of course you're right.

[@ricochet2977]

Just like street gangs craving attention? Probably better off getting a job!

[@Pincer88]

Crowds foster group think, so one best avoids them. Then again, if loneliness is such a problem, question is why? Is it the dominance of social media cultivation that has kept young people from engaging with other people, the fact that it takes two parents working 80 hours each a week to get the bills paid that makes them feel not seen and disconnected? Or even poverty and deprivation? I'd really dig that.

[@Stoddardian]

Decline? We've been declining for decades, maybe even for over a century. What we're seeing now is decay.

[@tensaijuusan4653]

Exactly! DEI is an advanced stage of "decay".

[@user-ni8gg3ms6j]

We have to fight.

[@sirrodneyffing1]

Deliberately managed decay.. apathetic neglect and decades of mismanagement.

[@user-ni8gg3ms6j]

@@sirrodneyffing1 We must resist the leftist paradigm. There is nothing free in the world. The left buys its supporters by promising them free things. "It is amazing that people who think we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, and medication somehow think that we can afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, medication and a government bureaucracy to administer." (Thomas Sowell)

[@akap_987]

It’s sad!

[@lawsonspedding6136]

I admire the learned Niall Ferguson ! I hope his new university in Austin, Texas, is a huge success - actually it WILL be a great success !

[@user-ef9eq8dk4i]

Really? Supporting Ukraine has driven the Russians into the arms of the Chinese, emboldened brics, and accelerated de-dollarisation. The West needs to learn the limits of its power or risk accelerating its decline. John Mearsheimer is who you need to take advice from, not a has been neocon like Ferguson.

[@Thichaou]

The woke university? That explains it!😂

[@lawsonspedding6136]

@@Thichaou WOKE ? Do you not understand or know anything about Niall Ferguson ? He despises WOKE and the left, the way the brains of our young have been indoctrinated with made up Marxist garbage ! His new Uni in Austin is based on learning and meritocracy !

[@ericchristen2623]

I applied to be a lecturer at Austin University. I am a multi talented award winning eclectic unwoke world traveler with 30 original publications, and after a month have not received a reply.

[@davidk6269]

Decline is not inevitable, but our leadership is so inept (and worse than inept, they are catastrophically misguided and unequal to the challenges facing us) that decline of the West is all but guaranteed. Our leaders are corrupt and lack the vision and the motivation to put in place the hard reforms that are needed to even slow the decline.

[@dixonpinfold2582]

People in any country with elections which are at least fairly clean and fall on time get the government they deserve. If we really merited much better we would know it deep down and not stand for the present nonsense. As things are, we quietly realize that there's really no reason that our leaders should be better than ourselves. The West since 1965 has been about little more than the chiselling out of one brick after another from the edifice of our civilization, largely (it would seem) to see what we could get away with, how much we can weaken it before it comes crashing down. It's not just out of laziness or stupidity either. Many actually get their kicks that way (as a glance around during the month of June will confirm). There's a profound soul-sickness in a society of people doing such a thing. Over-the-top liberalism is a problem. So is the massive experiment with irreligion and atheism. Solid people can get along fine without god by managing the risks; others are ill-advised to even try.

[@davidk6269]

@@dixonpinfold2582 I agree with you on some points, but not on all. For instance, I do not believe that organized religion would have prevented the decline of the US.

[@himalayanhealthhut6656]

It’s inevitable based n low birth rates versus high birth rates among Muslims. Demography is destiny.

[@hexagram531]

How glorious to have intelligence and knowledge, not filtered through any political agenda or ideological rubbish, just awareness of multiple aspects of reality.

[@arc_conference]

They are amazing people aren't they - so articulate and insightful!

[@Stoddardian]

No political agenda?

[@erazmuz]

Laughable, innit? ​@@Stoddardian

[@edilemma8052]

You are mistaken in thinking that they use their intellect outside of certain ideological constraints. Their hate of all things Soviet, as an example, makes them darlings of the West but completely devoid of balanced, scientific, if you will, position. Propagandists at best.

[@hexagram531]

@@edilemma8052 Christ. "Scientific", as in "paying attention to evidence and drawing logical conclusions", e.g. the evidence that Communism, under the Soviets, Mao and Stalin, led to over 100 million deaths in the 20th century, and was the most enormous social and economic bunch of errors, to put it politely, that humanity has ever experimented with?

[@rayhume1971]

"Decline is not inevitable. " And the universe just laughed and laughed and laughed.

[@steven2183]

It's like telling Frankenstein's monster as it realizes it's beginning to rot "don't worry, we have lotions for that."

[@Neo_Red_Pill]

There is a useful collaboration between Islamist activists and woke🙏

[@sdrc92126]

What organizations were originally started by Rudolf von Sebottendorf and what was his religion?

[@tensaijuusan4653]

They are both intolerant of free thought and speech, divisive, and racist with a victimhood mentality.

[@shankerram6076]

Why are you afraid to call them terrorists???

[@alanhat5252]

​@@shankerram6076afraid? no, it just doesn't fit. Those currently described as "terrorists" were named so by Israel, the country currently before the ICJ on charges of genocide.

[@TTFN55]

@@alanhat5252 - The UN has designated Hamas a terrorist organization.

[@iddles2o]

Kids of today are miserable because they are constantly being taught this country has an evil horrific past, nothing we have ever done is positive and their futures are screwed. Is it any wonder they feel this way. I grew up in the 70’s and 80’s and there was much to be fearful of however we were taught we had our own agency our countries past was mostly good and that we all had bright futures and I would argue the majority of kids were either neutral or positive!

[@BatCountryAdventures]

Evil past? What about invading Iraq on a lie? Did Blair get done for that? Making a mess of Afghanistan before bailing. Meanwhile Tiananmen Square was mentioned yet again on BBC... Something that happened in China 35 years ago gets aired out year after year while Blair remains a free man and the event never spoken of again. It's not only that! Millennials and Gen Z alike feels like they don't have a future because they feel Boomers are hoarding all the resources.

[@ShnNar1000x]

They are not being taught that at all, at least not in their schools. The entire attempt to bury the past and never come to terms with the reality of the US' brutal history is embodied in the effort to attack "critical race theory" (which is generally only taught in universities anyway). This attempt to hide from the truth means (at the very least) Americans have a deluded understanding of what has made their country successful and it feeds into the other nationalist myths that make the US dangerous to the entire world.

[@ngs4695]

Quite funny that Ferguson is sceptical towards a cyclical perspective on history, but during the whole interview is arguing in a way which assumes that history is progressing in cycles.

[@robertdlucas7418]

He is in a state of denial. Five-hundred years of hegemony by the west have inculcated a state of hubris in Ferguson.

[@crhu319]

Almost as if he's an idiot.

[@ngs4695]

@@crhu319Exactly @C H 😉🍌

[@lamson8349]

That’s how much absurd it gets when the agenda is to spin the facts to make a desired point. I admire his chauvinism but he is rather often a reactionary, which makes him come across as a hack.

[@RuneDrageon]

I think it comes across like that because he is trying to assuage the fears of imminent civilizational collapse that exist in public discourses as well as to prove that capable figures in the relevant fields have their eyes on the situation. That the feelings of concern are being taken serious by at least some people, who are trying to find the truth and thus be able to make recommendations to avert worse outcomes. It's a bit of a tight rope he is walking, to not suggest that there is a historical inevitably but down wards trends we can make changes to. Edit: spelling

[@RichardBrett899]

I have absolute confidence in the US prowess because of its overcapacity of propaganda.

[@csk4j]

Our schools have TAUGHT that central control is needed...ask young people what values they have..order, equality, conformity

[@1stGruhn]

exactly. the young don't remember what they have never been taught. Marxists own the teachers union and have distorted history teaching which is what socialists do best: propaganda.

[@alexanderhendry5819]

Order is important. Without order a society would be... disordered. I say this as a conservative.

[@tomguttmann9350]

@@alexanderhendry5819there are different types of order. Rules that people have to adhere to is not the same as the state ordering the citizens activity along all major topics of life. In one case order is used to protect the civic rights, while the other tramples on individual rights to serve „the greater good“

[@tylershannon6593]

The leftist infiltration of the education system is precisely responsible for the complete historical incompetence of their utopian ideals - which are unattainable whilst human nature remains human nature.

[@ericchristen2623]

And becoming billionaires by the time theyre 20, despite being totally uncreative...

[@jamescoates3382]

Keep up the good work folks

[@arc_conference]

We will! Thank you!

[@George-vf7ss]

If history doesn't have a cycle, it certainly rhymes.

[@LeeGee]

Humbling insights, a refreshingly almost-optimistic perspective -- thank you

[@arc_conference]

You are so welcome! There is always hope for renewal 🙌

[@speechnirvana]

These discussions are so important to have and for artists to bring it into our awareness

[@arc_conference]

Hear Hear!

[@jimluebke3869]

"If people want housing to be more affordable, you'd think they would be against green belts, instead of tying themselves to trees" No, most of them just start noticing that there's a housing shortage because of the millions of people being imported into Britain. But, when they object to that, the Establishment says "Racist!" or "lalalalala, not listening".

[@skylinefever]

Exactly. The establishment just wants their asset bubble at any cost.

[@Avidcomp]

I was in high school (state) 1979-84. Our history stopped after WW1. I asked why we didn't cover WW2 at the time and was merely told "we don't cover that".

[@Chris987-ew3qp]

Niall's wife (during her talk about Islam spreading like cancer) mentioned last week that she lives in the U.S., so she and Niall have already abandoned Europe because they see that the stage if set for sharia, which is why 95% of the invading migrants are young muslim men of military fighting age.

[@alanhat5252]

😮

[@GodsOwnPrototype]

That's not why they're coming in; traitors & insidious ingrate interlopers are why.

[@josephc.1776]

Agreed with Niall. I have thought, particularly recently as we watch the 'decline' of the West, that the democratic free enterprise West by its very foundational principles, has the capacity for repair and regeneration. Therefore the cyclical expected decline is not on. What we need to understand is that the ruling class in academia, media, NGOs, government administrations , politics have as an agenda their wealth power and prestige and are destroying everything with their narcissism and hubris.

[@grannyannie2948]

It is the myth of "democratic free enterprise," which got us here. We choose between two political parties, but they all represent the same global agreements so nothing changes whichever is in power. In my country's last census we see what decades of mass immigration the people didn't want does to democracy. If you are not a recent immigrant you are a minority and your vote doesn't matter. So our democracy is controlled by others and only goes as far as choosing between two globalist puppets.

[@grannyannie2948]

I tried to reply it might come back

[@grannyannie2948]

I see two problems in my country with "democratic free enterprise." The first is that voting means choosing between two parties with the same policies, so nothing really changes, they've all made the same global agreements which is what really matters to them.

[@grannyannie2948]

The second is the long term effects of mass immigration on democracy. Our census shows that if you are not a recent immigrant your vote doesn't matter, as you are now a statistical minority.

[@Lee-Van-Cle]

Your enterprises neither regenerate nor repair. They sustain because of the government debt. They can't even keep the EV industry ahead.

[@donaldflett1504]

Great discussion. I have a comment relative to young (and many older) people not really knowing what unfreedom is. I am a 76 year old American living in Kherson, Ukraine throughout the war. This has included the initial battle for the city, Russian military occupation, a stint in military detention and interrogation, liberation and the subsequent 18 months of daily bombardment from the Russians on the left bank. I agree with Mr. Ferguston that we (Americans, British, etc.) are not fully appreciative of the freedoms (not perfect or really that good in many respects) that we have by world or historical standards. Again, great discussion and keep up the good work.

[@TTFN55]

I've become a huge fan of Dr. Ferguson and am watching with great interest in the new university, UATX, in which he is a founding professor.

[@waynegore5291]

No. West is forever! This is the end of history. LOL.

[@alimirzamani979]

"...it's not particularly a cheerful moment in world history", but considering the real world, not just the West, for many it seems it is.

[@vuyonkosi209]

The fact that we're speaking about it, means that theres something wrong‼️

[@sbain844]

5:09 ROFLMAO, no major economic problems, none whatsoever... thanks for stating this so early, saved me from wasting time on the rest of this nonsense.

[@lisaschuster686]

“Historians are notoriously bad at predicting the future.” - Marshall Eakin at Vanderbilt University.

[@Orson2u]

VERY. My European and German history prof predicted the return and resurgence of antisemitism and Jew Hate...from the Right!

[@louisetaylor2131]

Soft soaping the issues we are facing

[@nicholashughes8214]

The West is facing decline because of what the West is doing. Its nothing to do with other countries somehow conspiring in an Axis of whatever The state of the West is down to Western Culture Western ideology and the Socioeconomic political system it has spawned. It was the West that allowed itself to be over run by immigrants, its the West that decided it had to do Net Zero, its the West that suddenly decided that Men could become Women and anyone who disagreed was a bigot and it was the West that decided banking and finance was more important that actually making real things and service and it was the West that decided to export all its manufacturing off shore and thereby destroy its own industrial scientific and technology base. The West Buttfracked itself no one else

[@GodsOwnPrototype]

Cuckoos in the Nest.

[@dixonpinfold2582]

Why not both? Seriously. Even if we stopped all our own nonsense on a dime starting tomorrow morning, we would still be under attack. See _World, history of._

[@vich1393]

An excellent discussion indeed. Remembering 1973 having hitchhiked across the United States and flown Icelandic to Europe, I recall the marvelous attitudes of the people I encountered the whole way across. Every night was a new adventure and one that impressed me as to the common sense of life and purposed Americans had. I had lived outside of the country for the 4 years prior, and realized quickly upon returning what a false image the media had painted of the country in those days.

[@michaeltse321]

global world debt to gdp in 1973 was 20% and now its over 300%...

[@shankerram6076]

Yes, and the one that will bring the US down.

[@thomasbentele2468]

Would our debt be a problem, when we created the fresh money/credit ourselves, borrowed it by our selves, payed it back to our selves and payed the interest to our selves, like we did in so much glorious times and countries? OK, most of these brilliant, people-loving leaders (f.ex.Qaddafi) were assassinated or/and their countries destroyed, so that our politicians tend to follow the brutal rules of the money-masters, without questioning their dictatorship.

[@alexdetrojan4534]

Coincided with the US coming of of gold backed currency...

[@Bookhermit]

We're not facing "decline", we're facing COLLAPSE. Either by war or by economics - most likely both.

[@bobSeigar]

Pedantism. One does not "Collapse" upwards.

[@alanhat5252]

...and all the hedgefunds will make their fortunes.

[@philipwilkie3239]

The West has any number of things it needs to improve - we fall so sort of our professed ideals in so many ways. But this never meant that out autocratic opponents, those who envy and fear the democratic accountability, the transparency and human rights we aspire to - are in any fashion better than us.

[@user-qq4xb5dl3w]

Well, I don't agree. It's about taking responsibility. How is, that so many young people grow up in a very difficult circumstances and still overcome fear and doubt, and overwin huge obstacles? And make a world to a better place. For themselves and for others.

[@householdone7559]

Didn't think the USA had any 'allies' these days.... they seem to be more 'slaves' or countries that have been coerced. And whose fault is it that China has grown so much? I was asking this exact question to my dad about 30 years ago.....

[@danwelterweight4137]

China has grown because of the hard work and sacrifices of its people combined with the good governance of its government. China used to be the richest nation on earth for thousands of years up until the British showed up and f Ed them up in the Opium wars, following by a bunch of other Western Imperialist countries who showed up like locusts and gang graped China for 100 years up until 1947. Now they are just going back to their natural place in human history, the top, followed by India which also used to be one of the richest regions on earth for millenniums It is Western hegemony that is an aberration in human history and now History and Nature is auto correcting itself

[@davidball5002]

@@danwelterweight4137What a bunch of crap? China’s growth has been handed to it on a silver platter by the West.

[@householdone7559]

@@danwelterweight4137 You just described how every economy "grows" using the economic system we have. Hard work and sacrifices. Yes The west, however, has been the greatest innovator and it grew massively for ages because they/we were so so far ahead of the rest of the world. Western hegemony was achieved through that AND hard work. No aberration at all. The west has been fantastic and deserved hegemony 100%. China didn't. They did not innovate for so so long and were always extremely protecive in terms of keeping everything within China. Ergo, they fell behind. Then a few decades ago, they opened themselves up. So with western company greed and costs spiralling because things had gotten so good, and in an aim to get the most out of the littlest amount put in, they opened up trade with the world (globalisation) and primarily China. They took advantage of the really cheap labour and production costs. Moving almost ALL production to China they did away with the fundamentals of a real growing economy... Production and underconsumption. Western countries stopped producing and carried on consuming. And to top it off they thought that fuelling it all by debt would be a good idea... which it clearly isn't... but try telling some economists that. Doing this should have been obvious from very early on. Put simply, had the west been more restricted on their "globalisation" and not made China the "workshop of the world", China's economy would not have been able to explode the way they did. There is no "rightful place" and China too will follow the exact same path and decline at some point. NOW is just their time to be on top. So to go back to my original point.... it's the west that unrestrictedly let China out of the box and it was clear from early on... so it's stupid for the west to complain.

[@alanhat5252]

​@@danwelterweight4137Persia similarly was a "great power" for a very long time. These countries have very long histories of science, mathematics, medicine & trade which the West has taken & claimed as its own.

[@FilipJDT]

I'd recommend podcast with prof. Richard Wolff (economic updates/ global capitalism) where you'll find out answers to your questions and more, if you're interested in geopolitics and global economy.

[@MRTY323]

Major wars are completely random. Really?!

[@wendyandrew2427]

I'm definitely with No all rather than the doom mongers who I'm really bored with. They really can't know how bad other countries are. If people can't buy houses, it's not ok but not the end of the world. Other things need to change and can change.

[@peterwright997]

Freedom isn't free a wise man opined!

[@sirrodneyffing1]

Nobody "rigged" the housing market. The planning system + immigration did that slowly over 50 years.

[@shankerram6076]

What about the Banksters??

[@user-ni8gg3ms6j]

the housing market - this is an inflated financial bubble

[@sirrodneyffing1]

@@shankerram6076 As you oblivious to reality and love silly labels that prevent anyone dealing with anything seriously; the "banksters" are not the problem. The "banksters" are a product of the fractional reserve banking system, Govt. fiat currency, Govt. national debt issuance and Central banks fiddling with interest rates. Put food out for rats and you get rats.

[@sirrodneyffing1]

@@user-ni8gg3ms6j No it isn't. It's 70 years of undersupply because of Government regulation through the Town and Country Planning Act, central planning and environmentalism which is the silent thief that has stolen away millions of peoples chance to own affordable homes.

[@alanhat5252]

You don't think manipulating the planning system is rigging the housing market?

[@thomasbentele2468]

I hate the idea, that societies cyclically go down. But there are old sayings like: "A new war normally can only start, when most of the participants of the last war died of." or, "Bad times make good men, good men make good times, good times make bad men bad men make bad times."

[@petervandenengel1208]

9:17 The Roman empire in the west collapsed very quickly because their elites no longer believed in their generals occupying northern Europe. It kept costing more money than retreived from it. Then Constantin decide to move the capital to Byzantium. Later named after him. They simply did not receive money anymore to support their armies. And ruling from Rome no longer was applicable.

[@Orson2u]

The new power Islam controlled paper. And Rome ran on laws written on papyrus that was no longer available. Ergo, unlike the Byzantines, Rome fell to Islam -- until their fates reversed most of a millennium later.

[@petervandenengel1208]

No, it was about trade in general. Constantinopel was right in de middle of trade on the Mediterranian. Byzantine also controled Egypt, so the papyrus narrative does not hold ground. Pure fantasy. Constantin already adopted Christianity. So also the religious argument involving a millenium does not hold ground. Constantin wanted to upgrade the barbarian cultures in the north using Christianity. Which was a peace culture and not one of revenge like Islam. Because their culture did not even involve money or well organized trade. By itself religion had nothing to do with it. The Romans were technocrats.

[@rdf098311]

@@Orson2uRome fell well before Islam was ever a thing.

[@tomguttmann9350]

@@Orson2uthe split of Rome predates Islam. Read a book!

[@michaelcorner3861]

Fiscal problems are fixable. It's interesting that Ferguson, who certainly knows this, doesn't really talk about it...raising taxes on corporations and hyper wealthy individuals.

[@dickjivas5996]

if you think we can tax our way out of spending problems, you don't understand basic economics very well.

[@sanniepstein4835]

The top 10% already pay 90%. Perhaps strong borders, good trade deals, and a smaller, less corrupt government would be better.

[@MourningConstitution]

Thanks!

[@csk4j]

Talks like this and Steve Bannon(Gbn interview) really help a lot to cast vision vs despair

[@alanhat5252]

Did you know that Steve Bannon has an employer? He is gofer for Robert Mercer, the hedgefund owner behind Cambridge Analytica, Brexit & Trump.

[@wolfvillenow]

"Not a particularly cheerful moment" is a delightful smile inducing comment.

[@Scarletpimpanel73]

Finally someone talking about the looming fiscal crisis!

[@jamesbaxter8794]

When I see TV shows like 'Home Town' on HGTV I see hope. Displaying good family values and strong male role models supporting their partners and community.

[@seanlander9321]

Unity is important, which makes the economic war the Europeans have waged against Australia with their punitive trade embargo all the more perplexing. Just what is the intellectual deficit in Europe that insists on their trading with Russia but prohibits trading with Australia for the same products?

[@iangeraldking]

Alternatively, why not extend the Five Eyes beyond military security into the economic sphere? Within the West, it’s the Anglosphere and the Continentals that are the two main blocs. We might as well consolidate our own faction.

[@seanlander9321]

@@iangeraldking Exactly. The Europeans are beneath our contempt, and as disunity is what they want, let them have it.

[@angrytedtalks]

Good points, articulated accurately and succinctly. Time for a positive message for youngsters to commit to with passion and resolve; purpose and vision.

[@miraabel7012]

In my view the reason why Gen Z are so passive in politics is the fact that a lot of the young dwell on the wealth and support of their families... If they were hungry and desparate, then they would revolt...

[@IK-wc4od]

Anytime any of these people say "we" what they mean is other people and their money.

[@steelcrown7130]

Ho ho ho.

[@grannyannie2948]

Not to mention global agreements

[@csk4j]

Im worried that democracy allows venting of anger but it seems that is being undermined by corrupting the election process

[@Robert-xs2mv]

Seems? There is not a shadow of doubt that elections are corrupted!

[@korenmoscovich4681]

Such a great historian

[@369noahtilley]

Any chance of ARC putting its talks like this onto a podcast for easier listening.

[@steelcrown7130]

The thumbnail says "Decline is not Inevitable". Sadly that statement is too late - decline commenced years ago. The job is to stop it, and reverse it.

[@Chris987-ew3qp]

Artificially increasing the population via mass migration ruins the environment and the economy (too many consumers chasing too few resources). After the Great Plague of the Middle Ages, which reduced the total population of Europe by a massive 1/3, living standards for the poor improved and workers were able to organize trade unions for the first time ever! If the total population in Britain was 1 million native Brits, each Brit would enjoy an extremely high standard of living! Britain is heading towards massive pollution and overpopulation, incl. housing & food shortages.

[@grannyannie2948]

I have seen environmental damage in Australia from the same cause. I grew up thirty minutes drive from a capital city. We lived on dirt roads with acre yards. The yards had koalas, echidnas, possums and all sorts of reptiles everywhere, living quite happily. Due to immigration today it is four lanes of asphalt and a concrete jungle of high density housing. The koala is officially extinct in the wild in the region, and the other animals are gone.

[@margaretelmajed2335]

It’s all crumbling before our eyes. What you have now is lawlessness.

[@paulbadics3500]

Most young people are not far left enviro crazy hamas supporters..only the privileged ones

[@epicphailure88]

Most young people will move left because their generation holds very little wealth in society. Think French Revolution vibes.

[@Allen1029]

The question for Niall is how does he map his seasonal beard cycle.

[@Nova2Yung]

Im currently reading Niall fergusons book, the ascent of money , it's a captivating read

[@alanhat5252]

that's worrying

[@Nova2Yung]

@@alanhat5252 why would that be worrying? Its a book on the history of money , and its quite interesting

[@GodsOwnPrototype]

The Documentary show he did of it was as well

[@csk4j]

How can we prosper and defend with green obsession.. oil and steel makes industry and weapons

[@grannyannie2948]

Good about time that nonsense got put aside.

[@michaeltse321]

While the contexts differ vastly, the Ming dynasty's demise due to peasant uprisings fueled by grievances, external threats from Manchu invaders, eroding central authority, economic woes like inflation and debt, as well as military weaknesses parallels some of the challenges the U.S. currently faces - from social unrest driven by inequality and polarization, to geopolitical rivalries, concerns about government gridlock and national debt, supply chain disruptions and inflation, as well as the need for military modernization. The Ming's collapse serves as a historical example of how internal divisions, external pressures, institutional decline, fiscal issues, and military vulnerabilities, if left unaddressed, can potentially undermine even the mightiest of powers.

[@WongPeter-tx7qq]

You explain why the demise of the Ming dynasty but the subject matter is why civilization falls. China dynasties came and gone but the Chinese civilization continues - it is essential to differentiate between dynasty and civilization. Niall has not explained the reasons for the continuation of the Chinese civilization.

[@michaelmurvihill8813]

You can't oppose something with nothing. I wrote an essay "Systematic Individualism" which explains why Individualism is the only just basis of society. The more freedom (less government regulation) individuals enjoy, the more just is society. All decisions must be based upon mutual individual consent (will) for society to be just.The true sociological/measurement is individualism vs. elitism. Left vs. Right is an artificial constuct developed for the benefit of the left (collectivists.)

[@yaoypl]

Decline is never inevitable? No Empire lasts forever. Niall Ferguson keeps drinking the Kool-Aid.

[@andimandi-ip8yq]

Which empire are you talking about?

[@epicphailure88]

​@@andimandi-ip8yq Any empire big or small has always fallen. Even Charlie Munger said we should accept China's rise as inevitable.

[@sanniepstein4835]

​@@epicphailure88why?

[@robwindridge7804]

Civilisations fall due to economic factors , and a failure by leaders to do anything about it soon enough. Also a lack of vision and falling apart of what empires used to stand for in their hay days.

[@alanhat5252]

You've piqued my curiosity, what did empires stand for in their heydays? Can you distinguish a few specific examples of empires?

[@xchazz86]

Young people are concerned, they are just powerless to do anything about it. The top down corruption is so systemic an dentrenched that there are nolonger any avenues for recourse.

[@user-qq4xb5dl3w]

Well, the most important thing is, I think, communication. At the end, it's allways growing disturbances of any kind, whatever, who smash the biggest, in the need of better word, "social machineries", "social constructions". It starts in the families.

[@hakerem]

He excludes the key to insight: Human nature does not change. Culture changes, economy changes and much more. Yet human nature endures, actualizing in each and every context. This is why many are able to see over the horizon.

[@ronkrate609]

Fergy has been drifting even further right

[@sptreimer]

That's because the Left are slowly undermining our values and making the youth cynical of everything we do

[@LordMagiru]

He is still a neoliberal though.

[@jiahan3849]

Thanks for the discussion. Agree with misleading ideology.

[@NorfolkSceptic]

Too many young people have studied unproductive subjects, so the national wealth isn't there to share, and it cannot be regained: the time, the opportunity, has been missed but, according to them, they have better thinking. That needs to be included in their assessment of their assets. Shame on those encouraging them to do that, rd without explaining all the choices available.

[@bearowen5480]

US national debt to GDP ratio is currently 125%. Hasn't been over 100% since the end of WWII when it was briefly 105% (for obvious reasons). For context, Japan's current debt to GDP ratio is 263% and and may be largely responsible for the country's chronic economic stagnation.

[@alanhat5252]

Japan's debt:GDP has been around 250% for many decades, it's irrelevant.

[@nuqwestr]

Cost of just Diabetes "The total estimated cost of diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. in 2022 is $412.9 billion, including $306.6 billion in direct medical costs and $106.3 billion in indirect costs attributable to diabetes. For cost categories analyzed, care for people diagnosed with diabetes accounts for 1 in 4 health care dollars in the U.S., 61% of which are attributable to diabetes." - NIH

[@alanhat5252]

And the causes & contributing factors leading to diabetes? Your solutions, please?

[@nuqwestr]

@@alanhat5252 For the majority, factors well known, lifestyle choices. My family is genetically susceptible to type 1, but my brother and mother had type 2 because of obesity.

[@GodsOwnPrototype]

The Primary cause of most preventable problems are a surfeit of vices & a dearth of virtues; obesity & diabetes are a clear example.

[@darkcircles1313]

Not inevitable but probable

[@NealeTurner]

He's looking at the wrong history books.

[@ch1m1ch0nga]

Konstantin is a comedian??? Really? How, er, is that career path going? Semper Fi

[@zwatwashdc]

I have always taken cyclical to mean things rise and fall in (retrospectively) somewhat predictable patterns, like inflation trends up for a while, then down, repeat. Or population goes up, them down, repeat, and so on. Not sure Niall refutes this. It is certainly not linear or progressive.

[@lance4337]

Its hard to remove current events with history. We're lost , couple generations might change it.

[@1stGruhn]

US debt servicing has overtaken US defense spending: For the first seven months of fiscal year 2024, which began last October, net interest payments totaled $514 billion, outpacing defense by $20 billion. Budget analysts think that trend will continue, making 2024 the first year ever that the United States will spend more on interest payments than on national defense

[@user-qq4xb5dl3w]

The "mindpower" on earth is growing. And better and better connecting. On the other side, there were probably never so many individuals, where stupidity seems to be endless. As Einstein said.

[@dixonpinfold2582]

🤨I almost can't believe Niall Ferguson said Gen Z didn't get the message about why Hilter was bad. If they didn't, why do they never tire of calling people who want to discuss whether the current immigration levels are appropriate "fascists" and "Na--s"?

[@John-bravooo]

It's a slur. But they don't understand Hitler. They call Jews Nazis.

[@MasteringGeopolitics]

By thinking in a simplistic, reductionist dual manner-us, the democracies, and them, the autocracies-Niall Ferguson seems unable to engage in meaningful theorizing within the evolving context of our contemporary world. Moreover, it appears he ideologically refuses to acknowledge the new world order emerging before our eyes. Consequently, he is a historian who is outdated by history.

[@cadelelon]

Wait. That's the old 2 Bears studio in LA, isn't it?

[@namelesswarrior4760]

It is not inevitable. But it sure looks like heading that way for the West. Who has the power to force change in the way that western governments are run atm? Especially, in the US. Where the government is beholden to big corps, military industrial complex and major donors.

[@utubeuser5312]

China more original tech than Soviet Union? Nope…

[@ericmetts2289]

Is History linear, cyclical or random? Me: Yes

[@asirnewazkhan4172]

Short answer: yes Long answer: y e s Because that's longer

[@CatherineMcdowall-od2ye]

Much of this concerns the repudiation of valour

[@ChristopherLecky]

Dynamic expansion and contraction is essential for all living systems to sustain,,,,,,, Do you have the level of understanding necessary to decipher why this is the case??

[@jiminverness]

Re Black and White movies, one good thing to Niall's point is that there is a slow move to colorize.

[@callumlegg3304]

I have two thoughts to add. When it comes to the fall of an empire, I believe it happens when there is an ossification in its society where the elite interest groups hoard all the wealth and power but also when there is no way up the social ladder for those at the bottom which leads to stagnation and corruption leaving an empire weak to external crises'. When it comes to why young people don't support building more houses, that presumes they fully understand the situation they are in. They may kbow that it's hard to get by in society at the moment, but they may not have a previous 'prosperous era' to compare it to. All they will think is that life in this society is difficult and meaningless and find their meaning in social justice movements both out of a search for purpose, but also out of a resentment towards those who have suceeded in society.

[@grannyannie2948]

Then how did the Middle Ages and the feudal system last so long ?

[@callumlegg3304]

@@grannyannie2948 simple, they kept killing each other preventing interest groups from staying in power for a long enough time. The fall of a noble/royal bloodline happened repeatedly during that era.

[@RedOctober2011]

Niall says at Time Mark: 2:13 that the empire of Rome took 1,000 years to collapse, but at Time Mark: 9:08 he says that the Roman empire fell apart "very fast". Which is correct? Which does he believe? We can gain nothing by just being presented with opposing views we can already find for ourselves. Also, a highly respected professional economic analyst Peter Zeihan disagrees with your guest about the military capabilities of the USA versus that of China. (Just search on KZbin for his name and the word "China")

[@elminster8149]

He's an historian, 1000 years is not a long time.

[@nevbarnes1034]

Gibbon regarded it as a long process, but Niall then quoted a more contemporary historian who saw it as faster.

[@lawsonspedding6136]

The Roman Empire fell apart very quickly ! That isn’t contrary to its length of existence ! Get a grip !

[@grannyannie2948]

​@@nevbarnes1034Exactly.

[@user-qq4xb5dl3w]

Why is NASA and ESA capable to send the "New Horizon" beyond Pluto and find Ultima Thule?

[@joannzhou4843]

He is so right. I can link myself wirh what he said as a Chinese moved to this country in my later 20s. Both my children were Gen Z, born and grown up here. I kept telling them UK is one of most equal, tolerance and kind society in the world. While they want this society better, do not loss sight of a bigger picture. Those dictators are happy to see democratic coutries weaker.

[@jameskamotho7513]

I share in his view about history not being linear...or the oft repeated phrase of "history rhymes".

[@rodneyblackwell7477]

Threat #1 the state, threat#2 the state, threat#3 the state, threat #4 .. see above

[@GodsOwnPrototype]

I think you missed Idealogues, but then from your list that's expected.

[@glennmitchell9107]

It's almost as if a culture needs its identity and purpose to be constrained by conflict and struggle. Lacking those guide rails it wanders off into ennui and delusion.

[@larrysherk]

All empires that have existed have eventually collapsed, and we're next.

[@petervandenengel1208]

3:41 The DDR which led to the collapse of trust leading to the fall of the USSR was surrected around 1947 and did collapse almost exactly 50 years later in 1989.

[@oliveoil7642]

What welfare State? As a Canadian Boomer I contributed to my company pension quite significantly (35 years) and the CPP Canadian Pension Plan as well for 35 years! You cannot receive CPP unless you have worked and contributed and the amount you receive depends on your contributions! The monthly CPP will barely pay for groceries with the inflation rate brought on by crazy government spending. I also paid for my children’s post secondary education and helped with their down payments on their first homes. BTW the only so called “welfare” we Boomers receive is Old Age Security, a whopping $ 685 per month! Again with the inflation it’s barely helping to pay for the large increases in groceries, heating , fuel, ……..

[@Seven.Heavenly.Sins.666]

Even dinosaurs became extinct.😢😮