The Anatomy of Cyclical Bear Markets | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (06.23.22)

[@s.fujita5271]

Long years experiences, historical data collection and analysis....Amazing....I remember your call on market top of 2021 was almost exact!!!

[@Namzes]

It’s refreshing to listen to someone who looks at facts and not perma anything

[@LoquarTree1001]

Tom, you are a master mkt technician. Your work is evidence based and objective. Priceless! Thank you.

[@jamesragsdale8851]

I'm really beginning to appriciate your divergence info. Thanks.

[@gianmariamalmesi4133]

Great historical analysis. I actually have the feeling that we are turning to "normality", US indexes outperforming Europeans, Asia and some EM rallying. Let's see how it turns out, I basically floated the past 6 months with some short term trades here and there but mainly stayed full invested, that caused some significant losses but I am pretty sure they'll be recovered in the long term

[@dfrank2044]

It seem you have a crystal ball Tom. Great TA analysis. Thanks

[@8825able1]

In one of your previous posts, you stated that you loved to teach. And what a fine teacher you are at that! After viewing this piece it dawned on me that I need to not miss a single email of yours anymore to help me make better-informed decisions. Appreciate you going in as to why you wrote what you wrote in previous articles. Another reason to keep up with your emails. Along with your explanations and charts. It would be so nice to know personaly!

[@oscarcastro7044]

Excellent video! Thanks Tom

[@marcobau3459]

Thank you, Tom, Amazing, very good analysis.

[@winstonvinay613]

When you look at 100 yr charts .. the current drop down is just like a blip … amazing insight … that gives us some hope in this bear market

[@gianmariamalmesi4133]

A very costly dip, some people literally got washed out and will never get back to markets. As we all know the big fish eat the small one, or looking at it in a Darwinian perspective, only the strongest survive

[@DavidGarcia-kw4sf]

@@gianmariamalmesi4133 The drop in 2008 was twice as big. This decline from January to this month was about 25% or so. And if you pulled out in January, as I did, you avoided at least 20% of that decline.

[@gianmariamalmesi4133]

@@DavidGarcia-kw4sf do you know that for the first time in history, last week, we had 5 consecutive days when 95% of the S&P stocks where down? Not all bear markets are the same, actually they are all very different from each other, the past 7 month have been catastrophic for some portfolio in such a bigger way than in 2008, for different reasons, tech has been leading the bear market first of all, then we've seen all different sectors going down, one after the other so many investors got trapped. Oh! Let's invest in agricultural outputs, they're up this year and boom, down 20%, the same with banks, materials, discretionary, I guess some low diversified, undercapitalized and unexperienced traders jumped from one sector to the other losing in most of them. So many new investors started putting their capital at work in the last two years. Fortunately I've been around for enough time to still appreciate the qualities of diversification, when everything seemed to go wrong I had those 4 or 5 stocks that underperformed forever that suddenly where up. Bayer, Eni, , Shell, Corteva just to mention some. I have a pretty well diversified portfolio with stocks in four different continents and a very small exposure to bonds ( about 1.15%). When you have 60 to 80 securities in your portfolio is not that easy to pull out you know? I pulled out about 10% of my portfolio in January.

[@stkhnds]

Very good

[@davesuarez9793]

Thank you

[@michaelwhitehead1373]

Tom, excellent presentation concerning cyclical bear markets. However, stagflation (recession w/inflation) along with global conflict along the line of the Arch Duke Ferdinand assignation moment with Russia and China, and market distortions, and supply chain dislocations, and food shortages, ... are just a few catalyst that can make this a REAL BEAR market. :.)

[@1057jgs]

AWESOME

[@vembarranganathan3640]

While I enjoyed Bowley's Cyclical bear markets, I wish he has a far more conclusive statement about the current bear market.

[@edwinbab705]

I bought oxy xom cop high price will they come ba k

[@radiantonion8615]

Cyclical or Secular Bear Market? and current issues. Going back over the last 22 years - Secular Bear Markets as defined by Monthly Ichimoku cloud analysis are - 2000-03, 2008-09. Cyclical Bears as defined by Weekly Ichimoku cloud analysis are - 2011, 2015-16, 2018, and 2020. We are at the moment (though SPX has declined by >20% in the first half of the year which is GREATER than any first half decline in DECADES) in a Cyclical Bear as defined by Ichimoku cloud analysis. The PROBLEM with this one is that SPX was very OVER VALUED TO START AND THUS THE EXCEPTIONALLY LARGE PULLBACK. HOWEVER, looking at a Monthly SPX, STO 5,2 , we have a bullish SL crossover which looks very promising and corresponds to Tom's call of a bottom on Jun 16. Cyclical Bear yrs 1st 5 Days of July returns after July 4th - 2011 +0.31%, 2015 -0.01%, 2018 +2.24%, 2020 +1.76%. 1st Full Week after July 4th returns - 2011 - 2.06%, 2015 -0.01%, 2018 +1.50%, 2020 +1.76%. July full month returns - 2011 -3.54%, 2015 +1.30%, 2018 +3.60%, 2020 +4.51%. Monthly STO 5,2 conditions for July 2011 - still declining, 2015 - still declining, 2018 - rising, 2020 - rising. NOTE that during Monthly rising STO Cyclical bear market situations of 2018 and 2020 the July % returns have been the greatest. Seeing that the Monthly STO RIGHT NOW HAS TURNED BULLISH there's a very good chance of a +% July return in the 1 - 5% range.

[@replyxf]

You assumption about the cyclical bear market is most likely wrong

[@jimmyjoyner328]

I enjoy your presentations but I have a hard time believing the bear market is over. How can we have a bull market while the Fed is practicing quantitative tightening. I believe we get a rally and the market will roll over. Will be happy to be wrong.

[@thealternativecontrarian9936]

we won't see all time highs again for several years. Do not deny the massive size of this bubble. It is going to take 5-10 years to resume that level and our economy will be sluggish for ten years. This will be a sluggish decade.

[@DrunkenXiGinPing]

If the markets go down further in a few months, will you do the show and tell everyone how wrong you were ?

[@davidscher1620]

One thing about Tom after years of watching.. he's eats his crow when served. Sign of a humble guy. Which is why I continue to follow him. We don't agree on many things right now. But, keeping honest people in your network of research is always the best bet. IMO.