The Biden Stalemate Continues | 538 Politics Podcast

The purgatory continues. The number of lawmakers saying President Joe Biden should not run for reelection continues to tick up, while Biden’s answer - that he is staying in the race - remains the same. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at data on which lawmakers are calling on Biden to step aside and who is continuing to support him.
The RNC also released its proposed platform this week and we use a good or bad use of polling example to better understand whether former President Donald Trump’s (and Biden's) policies are popular.
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[@dannyarcher6370]

Has 538 done any polling on video vs audio-only podcasts?

[@adamhoover756]

Guys, get back to hosting a video with it. Your engagement has to be suffering from this.

[@inorite4553]

I totally ignore all their 3 min crap posts

[@ADPalF]

Why would a video matter?

[@TheFantamos]

@@ADPalFI’ve watched less, I think this is the first I’ve gotten 10 mins in, was about to drop out the video… This is KZbin, we expect video…it’s simply expectations…

[@brotherlos]

Agreed with that

[@nomadpurple6154]

It's weird because we know they have the kit (or did ABC steal it back and sell it on ebay). Overall the ABC changes have been bad. The 538 website was clean and clear, now it's an ABC mess and I can't find what I want to read.

[@j.s.c.4355]

I want an open primary. This is an unprecedented situation, so these people who keep saying it’s not the way it’s done are saying they can’t adjust to something they’ve never seen.

[@JayseabeeSTL]

Unless Biden willingly withdraws from the race, he would win an open primary. If he withdraws, then sure an open primary would be worth it, but most dems (the silent majority) know that the Biden/Harris ticket won in 2020 so it's our best shot of winning in 2024. Sure, I'd love to see a younger president, but all the best alternate candidates are either too progressive to stand a chance on the national stage, women or gay (which unfortunately still puts them at a disadvantage in 2024, at least electorally), or don't have enough name recognition to stand a real chance.

[@greenluxi]

Yep, they have to bring the democratic process back into this, the people need to be allowed to step in and save ourselves, no more cutting us out of the process! It's those shenanigans that got us in the current crisis.

[@shocker147]

The people democratically chose Joe Biden...

[@N1IA-4]

You will lose most African American voters if this is done. May as well leave Biden in if you do open primary. Kamala is the VP, that is what she is there for.

[@ijadrian]

The problem is no one else will run. Whitmer, Booker, and Beshear have all said they are not running. They know that running in a three month window, when you don't have access to the Biden/Harris money, is not a winning proposition because you never know what skeletons might pop out. They are smartly waiting for when they can run in 2028 when they have the time to properly build a campaign to gain name recognition and raise funds.

[@abdulrahmanabdulkadri4825]

Can we get your videos again? It was much more engaging and easier to follow.

[@jackkazinsky290]

video is missing

[@samuraijack1371]

Is this the “working from home”version of podcast. Why no video?

[@cassandratq9301]

95% of podcasters podcast video from home, so it's not even that.

[@ADPalF]

Why would a podcast need video?

[@steveyoung9687]

Because ABC is cheap. Just a cost cutting measure.

[@kish2934]

Bad inference on abortion polling data around the 27 min mark: host claimed ~50% people believed Trump would support a ban on abortion and therefore people’s views of Trump on abortion are sealed. Wrong. Very few people whose vote is up for grabs is in that 50% already. It consists almost entirely of *both* single-issue pro-choice and pro-life voters. If you don’t think Trump moderating his message affects views among some moderates and independents and even Republicans, you are probably living in a bubble.

[@JayseabeeSTL]

Completely agree. If Trump was honest and said that there's a real chance his administration will put in place a nationwide abortion ban, then the vote would swing hard toward Biden. Idk why so many people underestimate the impact and power that the female, and especially the moderate female vote holds. Biden already won about 57% of the female vote in 2020, if he can build on that lead and win 65% or more of the female vote, then that could be huge. Polling shows that about 65% or more of women want almost no restrictions on abortion in America.

[@WackadoodleMalarkey]

Abortion, porn, no fault divorce, and more, all put in a box together with one on/off switch

[@inorite4553]

What do you mean "4 episodes?" You only post one real length episode on YT so I completely ignore every other 3 min crap posts you make.

[@MrPEIcanada]

Biden being the story isnt so bad... its stopped the endless drivel about Trump. And if it results in getting a better candidate vs Trump so be it. I doubt any replacement of Biden would lose a single vote to Trump and would likely pick up quite a few from the "none of the Above" category of voter.

[@Lord-Omicron]

One thing that catches my attention is that, since the debate, every network is saying that Biden is in huge trouble, that Trump leads him nationwide and in the swing states, yet FiveThirtyEight forecast has Trump and Biden virtually tied.

[@schroederscurrentevents3844]

Before the debate 538 had Biden gaining on trump and above him by 1 and a half points for the first time in the canpaign. After the debate that switched to Biden down 2. That’s a 3 and a half point shift; devastating for the Biden campaign It’s more devastating because Biden barely won last time with a 5 point lead in the popular vote, if he loses the popular vote he has no chance.

[@immortalblue7315]

This is insane. Do the voters not have a choice in the nomination?

[@anyonelk]

feels like this podcast has lacked insight for a while. its become just readin polls and saying none of it matters people have already decided. case in point the podcasts view of the chances of biden not being the nominee a few weeks back

[@big1dog23]

Comes across as unable to serve another 4 years. Pretty simple. Also, he will not inspire voter turn out, which is the key. Kamala needs to be the Gal.

[@TysonQuick]

She’s the VP already

[@Metal_seer]

When is the deadline for a change? It must be getting close.

[@tomhenderson2430]

Sound only. No thanks

[@TheHSIHP]

The Dems have a golden opportunity and they are going to blow it.

[@paulhenry8174]

That’s the point Trump picks a vp. Biden throws open the convention promising to endorse the winner. Our candidates flood the cycle with new positions and powerful speeches. This gives voters the best contrast between the parties. And we, the democrats get to see all our candidates at their best so we can make an informed decision. Losing is easy. Just stay on the tracks.

[@dannyarcher6370]

You're confused. Trump is already Biden's VP.

[@TheRussianWookie]

Not how the real world works and not gonna happen!

[@nassimghrayeb2005]

Lol, trying to make sense of complete nonsense, I commend you on your persistence, it's entertaining.

[@eriktorgler7748]

That was an extremely charitable reading of Project 2025. It completely left out some of the more inflammatory things in the document, such as banning pornography and re-criminalizing gay marriage.

[@thequixoticangler3364]

It makes being female a crime. That's all in the introduction, too. It's beyond dystopian.

[@dannyarcher6370]

And none of it means anything. Orange Man doesn't know anything about it.

[@shannonjane7373]

Trump hasn't read it or endorsed it. It's like saying Biden is Catholic and the Pope is against abortion. Just a talking point for the Dems in this case.

[@nomadpurple6154]

I see the bots are out with the talking points. Project 2025 is written by the people who will have top positions in Trumps government. They will be able to enact it, just like they did with judge appointments to destroy abortion access to dying mothers. We know DT didn't read it, he doesn't read much. We know he lies so whether he endorses it makes no difference, he can't be trusted.

[@SicilianDefence]

Where is the videos? No more, but just sound?

[@nadademamaditas]

they did ma boi Joe dirty with that thumbnail

[@tiffanyjones14]

How so? That's how he looks. Atleast it isnt his side profile with his mouth hanging open.

[@jeffreylynch9646]

Agreed.

[@nathant2309]

Maybe I'll see you in Milwaukee Galen!

[@justinleemiller]

Drop out before the RNC. They will have no one to attack for 4 days

[@denniskeister2070]

I think:1) Biden shouldn't withdrawn until after the Republican convention, 2) Old politicians (Pelosi) won't force Biden out because they would then be in line to be forced out, 3) Biden will agree to withdraw IF he is replaced by Harris.

[@nomadpurple6154]

Pelosi left her speaker role voluntarily a while back. she is one of the people putting pressure on Biden to step down.

[@chri6393]

Biden has only talked about Ukraine and Trump. I'm a Biden voter and this is the 1st I heard about his economic plans

[@ijadrian]

Agree. Talking about what he's doing is Biden's biggest weakness.

[@inorite4553]

Then you haven't been paying attention. You also should join me and demand that Biden step down

[@matthewcasady6276]

What makes anyone think changing a nominee at this late of date is a good idea I'm not sure. I guess I can't prove it, but my feeling is the president next year will be either Biden or Trump. Democrats changeing nominees at this time will just result in that being Trump.

[@ADPalF]

People outside of the democrat loyal base don't actually like Biden very much. Like, I know the loyalists have done a lot to build an echo chamber for themselves so they don't encounter people who don't believe exactly like they do, but he really is not a popular president and the current political era with democratic nations around the globe the past two years has been incumbents are punished by voters. Not rewarded.

[@tiffanyjones14]

Its definitely going to be a "W" for Trump if Biden stays in.

[@chengalvalavenkata2401]

I like your factual news reporting and lack of extreme bias. :)

[@AntiContradiction]

They never claimed to be unbiased

[@Lennybird91]

In before Joe Manchin is Trump's VP. Gabbard? Sinema?

[@dannyarcher6370]

Orange Overalls Man 2024!

[@Hotchuckieboy]

No nate no listen

[@jeffreylynch9646]

Hard to take this seriously with the thumbnail you used.

[@flywithme7]

Trump should be the one that has to go.

[@marscrumbs]

There is no magical sparkle pony coming in to replace Biden. But see how amazing Biden is and get back in the game.

[@TheHSIHP]

Biden is going to lose.

[@that1guy335]

One of the presenters: _I don't know if the debate will effect the election longterm..._ 30 seconds later: _How are we going to talk about the RNC next week with the Biden story is still ongoing..._ 🙄

[@alexanderclaylavin]

this is noy insightful

[@roger_is_red]

Why are we dependent on the president's good days? Too old. The Dems need to come down from Mt Olympus and get real, we have to beat a dictator. They could try asking the people/voters who they want to run, for a change of pace. Jeannine

[@no_rubbernecking]

They did, it was called primaries and caucuses.

[@JayseabeeSTL]

They did in the primaries, and they voted for Biden. He got 87% of all votes in the primaries, even considering that half of the states had options for write-ins or "uncommitted". I'd say a realistic figure would be that 25% of democrat voters honestly want someone else on the ticket besides Biden, but the other 75% or so know Biden is our best shot and we have to accept that.

[@peterrobinson1041]

the dem voters vited for biden!!!!

[@WriteInAaronBushnell]

Against who?​@@peterrobinson1041

[@WriteInAaronBushnell]

​@@JayseabeeSTLthe dnc primary was as democratic as the Russian election; only approved opposition candidates were allowed to run against them

[@DanielDeveronBaker]

Regarding Joe Biden Age Concerns… One solution might be swapping positions on the Democratic ticket.. Instead of a Biden/Harris ticket, switch to a Harris/Biden ticket. Joe Biden could retire before his term is over, and Vice President Harris would become the first woman President. History would be made! Then President Kamala Harris could call Joe Biden out of retirement to run as her vice presidential pick. What do you think?

[@IllusAuthor]

There is no way Biden's ego would allow him to do this.

[@itsallfunandgames723]

I'm beginning to think 3 semesters of common sense classes would have done them so much more than 3 semesters of statistics.

[@gretakaim7616]

I support Biden 💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙!!!!

[@zachariahlacy2944]

Right to an abortion is an interesting term for infanticide.

[@AntiContradiction]

Right to abortion. Roe v Wade

[@ADPalF]

Do you think the government should legally have the ability to force people into being organ donors? Not just the deceased either. I mean, people have two kidneys. The liver can self-repair.

[@zachariahlacy2944]

@ADPalF This is a false equivalency. There's a fundamental difference between an action taken to save a life and one undertaken to end one. A theoretical law to force organ donation would be an act of tyranny to potentially save lives. However, banning abortion stops the action of killing innocent people. The second isn't an act of tyranny because that is already one of the duties of the government. They've only refused that responsibility because infants in the wonb have been stripped of their humanity.

[@dannyarcher6370]

@@ADPalF As Zack said, false equivalency.

[@frankwolftown]

We need every major donor telling them they won't support Biden if he stays in the race.

[@JayseabeeSTL]

Do you realistically think that any other democratic candidate with enough name recognition to be considered has a shot at winning? The only options would be Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, or Buttigieg, and of those, the only REAL option is Harris. Remember, we're talking about winning the election, not just winning the popular vote by dominating urban progressive areas. We have to play in the system we are in, and hope to change it later to be more representative of the people. Harris is the best option and she's both black and a woman, which could both massively hurt her chances in certain states where Biden won... Newsom doesn't stand a chance because everyone knows him as the California guy. Whitmer will face the challenges of running as a woman as well, and Buttigieg will face challenges due to being gay. It's obviously not an ideal situation, but the Biden/Harris ticket won the election in 2020, and it's our best shot of winning again in 2024...

[@peterrobinson1041]

f the donor's

[@no_rubbernecking]

The votes have already been cast and counted! Where do you guys stand on the issue of democracy?

[@JayseabeeSTL]

Referring to the 3 months of primary voting that made Biden the presumptive nominee?

[@no_rubbernecking]

@@JayseabeeSTL Of course. This is not the election to be doing this, because of donald's position on 2020 and insurrection, dictatorship, revenge, etc., all the anti-democracy stuff. This hypocrisy will make us lose no matter whom we run. And if people believe he's unfit to be president now, they need to be saying so and calling on him to resign the presidency. That or the 25th Amendment are the only valid and the only democratic methods to nominate someone else at this point. We must have moral superiority on the issue of democracy or we _will_ lose, and this is the one we simply can't lose.

[@no_rubbernecking]

@@JayseabeeSTL Yes and i can't believe these people just deleted my first reply to you. This bull is what’s going to make us lose, if we lose.

[@AntiContradiction]

Parties are not obligated to nominate the nominee with the most votes. In fact, the parties aren't even obligated to run "fair" elections. Only the general election does that matter

[@no_rubbernecking]

@@AntiContradiction Where do you think i said they were? I said that is anti-democracy. The question is not whether they can, but where they (and you) stand on the question of whether they should in this year. I went into much more detail about the better way forward in my first reply to @JayseabeeSTL above. It saw the light of day for about one minute before the channel you're defending here vaporized it. I don't know why you'd choose to defend overturning an election that's already happened in this year of all years, if indeed you support the Democratic ticket. This is what will make us lose!

[@TysonQuick]

We’re going with Biden

[@covenant11]

So move on already to what actually matters...ffs

[@feedjake9995]

MAGA!

[@denvan3143]

This is hilarious. Democrats lost their minds when Trump won in 2016 and then never found them. What did they think they were going to get with Biden as president and Kamala as his VP? 😄

[@JayseabeeSTL]

I thought he had a fantastic performance yesterday, especially during the unscripted questions portion. He demonstrated his decades of foreign policy experience, the relationships he has built over the years, etc. It's clear that when policy is actually being discussed, he can easily run circles around Trump, who has little to no knowledge or expertise on any policy whatsoever. Biden just needs to stick to his guns and keep his speeches simple and centered on his key strengths like the economy, NATO, CHIPS Act, Inflation reduction act, etc. Biden is a transitional candidate, and he's the best chance the dems have at beating Trump. I'm ridin with Biden, but if he steps down or is replaced I'll still vote blue in November. In an ideal world, Biden beats Trump, has another massively successful 4 year term, and then hands off the reigns to a much younger president in 2028 to continue the mission of saving America from the death grips of white Christian nationalists who want to install Dictator Trump into power.

[@GamerSlayer5000]

I'm a Trump supporter and agree it couldn't have gone better, it's like he's just trying to give Trump the office LOL

[@TrentSLucas]

Biden is refusing to step down despite the vast majority of Americans wanting him to. Doesn’t that make him the dictator? Is Biden going to leave office in January if The Lord Almighty doesn’t come back and ask him to?

[@JayseabeeSTL]

@@GamerSlayer5000 I'm genuinely curious, not judging at all. What is the main reason that you think Trump is a better candidate to lead our nation? Is it simply because "he's an outsider" and you want things to be shaken up, or do you specifically like his policies that he has in mind? What was your favorite thing he did during his presidency?

[@kevinwoolley7960]

He fumbled the name of his VP. He used a weird creepy whisper near the end. His discussion of Israel was meandering and had no coherence. He frequently lost his train of thought and dissembled. He got weirdly and fakely angry talking about gun violence. He has to call on people from a pre selected list. Sure, it was better than his debate, but it was not at all normal and not remotely reassuring.

[@IllusAuthor]

@@JayseabeeSTL @GameSlayer5000 just likes that Trump hates who he hates.

[@ryanlasalle4414]

Come on. All trump has to do is show the 10 seconds of Biden leaving the debate stage looking terrified to walk down two steps. Hello!!!!