The Bike Industry Just Broke The Used Market!

[@ShadLife]

I think people don't realize how quickly a bicycle depreciates in value once it's used. I always say, "Expect to get 1/2 or less of what you paid for it when you sell a used bike". For a short time a used bike was selling more than what you paid for it, just like used cars. That was simply because getting new bikes or cars that you wanted was almost impossible without a long wait. That was a short lived situation, so it is not surprising to see used prices drop back to where they should be.

[@-T90Vladimir]

In Hungary the market is still crazy as f*ck, bought my bike last year for about 700$, right now I could sell it for double of that. Only reason I don't is I love the bike, the geo is really really suited to me.

[@stevencole7331]

Correct . A bike like a car has generally not been a investment but a declining liability .

[@christopherwaller2798]

It varies - Brompton folding bicycles are known to retain their value well, but overall this is probably true, especially for mountain bikes where things move on faster than bikes aimed more for commuting.

[@ShadHolland]

@@christopherwaller2798 I am sure recumbents and unicycles do also...😉

[@chadwells7562]

Buy a good bike and keep it 5+ years and it won’t matter

[@jaycarneygiants]

I would say the "used market" has just been out of control. People are finally getting a well deserved wake up call.

[@DailyMTBRider]

I agree with you - things have been out of hand for a while and now all these unused COVID bikes are going to hit the market and oversaturate it.

[@guitarlessonsnow3431]

Pros Closet…take note.

[@WRBWRXWGN]

@@guitarlessonsnow3431 I've been watching certain bikes on that website for well over a year now. Finally, after 12+ months, they are starting to decrease prices. I suspect they are going to end up in the same situation as carvana and other used car sellers that spent way too much buying up inventories that they can no longer move. And I'm here for it.

[@bethrudolph2006]

@@guitarlessonsnow3431 Used prices on Pros Closet have been way too high! Just to note, I don't think they are buying used bikes anymore right now for cash, just store credit. I got a quote for them for what they would give me for my bike, and thats what they told me..store credit only. However, they would have paid me cash for my frame if I wanted to part it out.

[@brendanberry8852]

@@DailyMTBRider As I said in my post, many of those Garage Queens and wall hangers, still have finance on them and need paying off. People returned to their normal life style, realised that they do not look like top end riders shredding, shralping and pulling fat whips, also as one person I coached after their first big off said, and this really stuck in my head; "You guys know this stuff, you make it look and sound easy, what I don't do is practice and practice, you're out here in all weathers, I'm just out when I can and now I'm back in an office, I am not putting the miles and smiles in. "You ride to work every day, I get a train and underground, you maintain pedal fitness, Im grabbing when I can, winter forget it." You're out coaching in -3 and snow or torrential rain, Im sat in a cafe on a Saturday morning. Dude is right, my insta paints that all weathers, all year round riding every day. Like you say... "Ride your bike, everyday"

[@Antnerd]

I've only been mountain biking for a few years, but it still blows my mind how people expect to recoup their costs on non-essential LUXURY goods, treating them like investment properties "I'll buy full carbon super build this year because I'll sell it for 90% cost next year and get next years model for free! ;D" Luxury, niche items, in a recession. Surprise surprise.

[@WRBWRXWGN]

Get out of here with your economic fundamentals! 😂

[@GuyInPinkShirt]

I feel bad for anyone who bought a mountain bike as a investment. I’ve spent a lot of my hard earned money on good bike and have added components simply because they look nice and I’m into mountain biking as a whole. The bikes, the tech, the gear, and don’t regret it one bit. My investment is looking at my bike and enjoying the good time’s outside riding solo or with a group of riders equally in love with the sport/hobby

[@smithmax13]

The same thing happened with lots of high end toys like boats and planes. Some boat dealers were even guaranteeing buyback prices for people that wanted to upgrade to a new boat every year.

[@dudeonbike800]

"I've only been mountain biking for a few years..." And your perspective explains the rest of your post. This shortage of bikes and ability to resell a used bike near, at or even above MSRP has never happened before across the board in the bike biz. Never seen this happen since I became aware of the industry in the 70's. The pandemic created unique conditions that led to this happening. This is NOT "business as usual" in the bike biz. Nor in any other industry. A rare blip on the radar.

[@dudeonbike800]

@@GuyInPinkShirt No one bought a mountain bike as an investment! Some people bought them and flipped them quickly when they realized they could make a few bucks. But "investing" in mountain bikes? Nope.

[@TrailFeatures]

This could ripple into the next few years where bike brands really struggle to balance their budgets as people are selling used bikes/parts for cheap and tech has plateaued at the moment. This was something I saw people talking about online and I don't think they are wrong. We may see bike brands really struggle to weather this if they weren't smart during the massive boom in the '20-'22 eras. Could cause tech to stagnate, though we may also see some big innovations as brands fight to get people to buy new vs used.

[@adamnorton748]

At least they were able to eat up a lot of single location bike companies and LBS' during the pandemic- large companies can leverage that during their coming tribulations.

[@TrailFeatures]

@@adamnorton748 Capitalism: Screwing over the little people since the 16th century.

[@rotorloamer5329]

They will just be forced to innovate something or die out. The Herd will thin at this plateau point.

[@playgroundchooser]

Hello old friend! Hope you're doing great. I miss your vids. :)

[@dylan-5287]

This channel is becoming Bike Industry Market Watch and I'm all for it!

[@reggiefuentes4599]

I just recently took my bike off the used Market, with a couple of price drops because it wouldn't sell. It is in excellent condition, almost new condition. So I decided to make a couple of upgrades to it because my LBS had some good deals going on components Now I can't wait for riding season/springtime to ride it again

[@badagaioo]

VAT in Portugal for bikes (exclusively) just went down from 23% to 6%. Just imagine how crazy it is around here 😂

[@DoughtyWolf]

So they want you to buy new bikes in Portugal? 🤔 😱That must be amazing!🤩

[@sebastiaomartins5369]

🇵🇹🇵🇹🇵🇹

[@badagaioo]

@@DoughtyWolf yeah, and on top of that the vat also applies if you buy from from any other country inside the EU. Imagine being able to buy a new Radon Slide 7.0 for around 1900€. The issue here is how the used market hasn't balanced itself because used bikes/parts are sitting for months on marketplace and they simply don't move.

[@DoughtyWolf]

@@badagaioo Well that can be easily explained. People buy it at a certain price and use it for 1-3 months then cut 10-20% of its original price and put it on market and leave it there for 6-12 months expecting to get that price or around that price not knowing the new models come on market or the sales in shops for new bikes or parts are going down. That should not be an issue with someone who knows the prices or is actively searching and comparing with used and new in shops, online or markets since they can just talk to the seller and show him that his product is 1000$ new in shop and he sells it with 850$ used for 2-4 months when he bought it with 1200-1400$ and if he realises it then he will lower the price and you can get a good price value item, only a disadvantage to new comers to bikes and mtb industry will be confused and shocked since they don't know the real value of a new item like that or a similar item compared to what it should be in the used market. But yes in the end it still is a problem. Question about the lowered VAT does it apply to all countries in the EU? I ask since i bought my bike 4 months ago from a dealer in my country which is in EU but they also imported from Germany which is also in EU and I got it at same price as on the manufacturer, just curious if it only applies to Portugal or all EU countries?

[@giuseppegalilei6604]

​@@badagaioo which websites allow to benefit from this? assuming of buying from another european country

[@alexflosho]

I am hoping I'm not going to lose my bike shop job this year 🙃

[@galaxiax3284]

I need a bike at a low price 😊can you help?

[@alexflosho]

@@galaxiax3284 what kind of bike you shopping for?

[@galaxiax3284]

@@alexflosho small hybrid, comfortable not too many gears, was looking at the cannon sale quick 4 but they seem to aggressive on the handlebars but I like the cannondale app included that the cx don’t offer, any other suggestions or comments will be appreciated thanks.

[@alexflosho]

@@galaxiax3284 sure. A couple different coptions would be: Specialized Roll. Best-seller at my shop. I'm not sure it's quite what you're looking for, as you say you want a small hybrid, but it's worth a shot. They're very comfortable. Cannondale Adventure. Similar vein to the Roll, but from Cannondale. Specialized Crossroads. The Crossroads is a decent mix between a more fitness-y bike like a Quick and a comfort-y bike like a Roll. It's got the higher bars, but it's still got some thinner tires for better efficiency. Cannondale Quick. You mentioned this, but I might as well add that at many bike shops you will be able to get a new stem (the bit that connects the handlebars and the fork) that has a rise to it so you have higher bars. Specialized Sirrus: a very similar bike to the Quick, but from Specialized. Specialized Sirrus X: a more offroady bike. Very similar to the Sirrus. No matter what bike you end up looking at, definitely go into your local bike shop to shop around and get information on the different levels. I know that many of the Specialized bikes are on sale right now, and I don't know how long it's going to stay that way. I think a Crossroads is a solid choice for what you want, but if the app is important to you I'd see what you can do with the Quick with a riser stem.

[@galaxiax3284]

@@alexflosho thanks that was a very in-depth answer from you, what is the name of your store hat I may look into it.

[@GF-cb8rr]

Add in 8% to 9% sales tax on new and the discount on used is even deeper.

[@williamclark278]

I used to ride a Trek Road Bike , But at age 68 I gifted it to a 16 year old who would ride it more than me, due to my back pain at the time. I went to The Trek store the other day and Now the Trek bikes are $8, 000 mine was $2,500 when I got it and I put new stuff on it to Class it up. Now with my back problems and being a diabetic I will get a simple fun type of bike to Plow around the world in, to keep the blood moving.... Bill from Santa Rosa Many Blessings To All

[@reecenewton3097]

I've always ridden. Then in 1986 got a Nashbar LeTour road bike, cost about $360 IIRC, and rode a lot with a group, but quit when I was 50 (don't remember why) and hung the bike up for 30 years. This past spring I was convinced by a friend to get the bike down but it needed a lot of work after sitting. Tore it all down, redid all bearings, new derailleurs, drive components, tires and back on the road. The old computer only needed a new watch-type cell and it picked right up and worked! Bought a 2022 Marin Bobcat Trail 5 hardtail, and am having a lot of fun on road and now the new thrill of trail, at 80 y.o!

[@mattharding1969]

A customer of mine in Anacortes gave me a low miles 2008 Specialized Stumpjumper Elite FSR because they sold their house and had to bug out. It had been sitting for years because he busted the rear derailleur and bent the hanger. A good used XTR rear derailleur off eBay and new hanger and it was back on the trails. Yes, it has 26" wheels, but I'm pretty short and 29ers are unthinkable for me.

[@crane1bl]

Keep in mind that bike sales are seasonal and mid-winter is traditionally where prices drop to their lowest. Whether or not the spring sales rebound/ surge happens will forecast what the future holds IMO. Overall I agree with the prediction that the used market will cool off compared to a pandemic-era boom.

[@JoshAllenberg]

Yeah I don't understand why people are getting scared about bikes not selling in the winter. Like go outside and look at the weather, there's only a fraction of riders who ride in the rain and snow. I'm waiting to sell mine in April. Pair the weather with the components sales that happen on black friday and boxing week, and bike builds will be going on behind closed doors.

[@ericmoorecowbell]

I came here to say this very thing. It's like selling ski equipment in the summer. As soon as spring fever hits bikes and parts will sell. I think one of the reasons bikes are on the market for a long time is that people try and get a certain perceived value out of them. I think the bikes that are fairly priced get sold quickly. This is the same with cars.

[@ve2jgs]

@@ericmoorecowbell You do need a sufficient volume of buyers to keep sales moving. Car demand is steadier compared with the seasonality of bicycles.

[@grahamhowland566]

Being someone that rides a much older but well maintained/upgraded bike (Norco Bigfoot from the early-mid 2000s) I have watched the bike industry become the monstrous thing that it is and I’m actually quite glad to possibly see the beginning of that bubble bursting, as you said the tech in the industry really does seem to have reached a point where unless you’re a semi pro rider or have a bottomless wallet and feel the need to be one up from your riding peers there is very little to be gained by upgrading to the latest model. As has been shown in countless KZbin videos the entry level bikes now are far more capable than they ever have been and with a used market becoming flooded with reasonably priced upgrades I can see many people choosing to upgrade what they have rather than buying new

[@TerrenceLP]

And funny 🤣 almost everything is back to a 4 bar link again!

[@justinwillms17]

I was going to foolishly sell my bike in the fall, knowing full well I would regret it (financial issues)…. I am actually glad I’m not “stuck” with it and will be able to enjoy my bike next season.

[@tonymighalls9667]

It’s frustrating cause it could see this was gonna happen, in the uk during covid everything just went crazy with bike, people were just buying any bike any size on credit no matter what the cost or if it even fit them, and now the market is flooded with nice bikes but everyone wants cash for then, nobody has got the cash to spend with the world the way it is at the moment. There mostly just gonna end up in a garage unused and the people who really would have used them will have lost out.

[@auzyauzborn]

That GX carbon Sentinel was $5500 new from Transition when it released in 2020. I didn't realize it got a 15%/$1000 bump jeez

[@neil78]

I'm hoping the car industry continues to head in this direction as well.

[@Moondoggy1941]

Usually when they run out of idiots the price will drop to a normal price.

[@jev2867]

Consumers are their own worst enemy.

[@ivanjerganoff280]

..and the 400cc motorcycles.

[@zurielsss]

Already there

[@edwardberra535]

Valid points. Can you maybe do a follow up video in April? Tough to assess the strength of a warm weather industry when we're about to get a foot of snow here in Denver. On the flip side my buddy sold his fat bike in less than a week 😁

[@Sasquatch322]

I was big into mountain biking 12 years ago and last year I got back into it. I got myself a new 2021 trek fuel ex7 (which has been an absolute dream of a bike) I was floored that an "entry level" dual suspension bike ran me for $4100 CAD plus tax!

[@treyton6892]

I got a trek remedy 8 ( one down from the top) with a ton of upgrades and only 10 rides on it for 2250 just a week ago 😂

[@mattcardarelli]

Yup, the whole scene needs a reset. This will be good for the everyday trail rider

[@Rockerrobin]

Yeah the prices are outrageously inflated. Back in 98 I got a norco Kathmandu for like $800 and it was a better built tougher bike than my 2019 norco fluid ht2 that coated me $1600 the derailer hanger has already bent out of place twice and I have barely used it vs my old bike that is still being used to this day without any parts being swapped or replaced yet.

[@somevids4187]

@@Rockerrobin my 2005 First Bike brand (no name I guess), dual suspension (spring) mtb with an aluminium frame, cost about 300 dollars adjusted for inflation, and I recently serviced it and the parts were sturdier than what you get on entry level bikes today. Even the bearings were solid.

[@Rockerrobin]

@@somevids4187 just like everything they charge us more and make them less durable so you rebuy more frequently.

[@frienduro24]

The other big problems is certain brands were over-priced before the pandemic and those same brands raised their prices a few times and higher than others. Specialized and Santa Cruz especially were vampires to riders.

[@labyrinth242]

I was a Santa Cruz customer before the pandemic when u could get a nice carbon build for 3k. Now everything is over 5k. I left the brand and moved to Kona since it was more affordable

[@reggiesanders1284]

Correct. Today’s sales prices are what normal prices should be.

[@christenrten]

I've made every possible wrong decision selling my bikes of late. Sold way too cheap at start of pandemic before we knew about the massive inventory shortage. And now I'm trying to sell a couple bikes I should have listed last season.

[@Vempire123]

You know the drill: buy high, sell low.

[@hahamasala]

The most annoying thing is when people list bikes and don't indicate the model year.

[@mblumenstein1]

I've been in the industry for decades. For years, PD, marketing and sales leadership have been jabbering about the aisles of Interbike as well as their own brand sales meetings about over production, model proliferation and so on. The "big 5" telling, demanding, buying out retailers in some cases...not asking...the best IBD's in the biz about consumer spending/buying habits and seasonal bicycles sales cycles, how and when to discount, 'utilize our co-op marketing spends'... IBD's pushed way back and voted with their pocket books or at least the goods ones did. So, in 2015-ishness, many brands went DTC, sold bikes to retailers who had no biz selling said bikes. Marketing/Leadership spun and lauded the omni-channel sales and distro. strategy while claiming to still protect the shops that largely build "XYZ bad ass bike brand" in the first place. It doesn't work and it was never going to work. Every button pushed to grow sales was done for the short run and gain. A pure money grab to satiate investors and in some cases Wall Street....no interest in the long term health of the category. Just wait til the E bike segment crashes and burns and it will. Nothing will change unfortunately. Taking a page right out of the ski industry's playbook. Pure definition of insanity.

[@PeterCPRail8748]

Can't blame the industry for this practice. You have too many IDIOTS making PISS POOR choices with their money. When Santa Cruz and Yeti are the coveted bike of most above average riders, and these companies have been selling average performing but nice looking bikes for insane prices for years. It was just a matter of time before all other manufacturers followed suit. Even Gaint, the best major brand for bang for the buck proposition, has gone crazy in pricing. I have seen this in paintball, an industry that is a fraction of what it was in the late 90s and early 2000s.

[@brendanberry8852]

100% been turning cranks probably as long as you. Seen this coming, call me cynical this was going to happen, we went pop back in about 03/04 ish. Now its happening again, problem is this time, bikes have priced themselves out of reach, finance options dont allow for those now struggling financially. The industry has always been just on the verge of dropping over the crest of the wave, but held its own. Now its a case of "Ah crap, we rolled the dice, created too many models, new types and now its bitten us." Like you say the eeb market will C and B, no matter what a brand manager or tech tells me at a bike show, Eebs are still not there technologically yet, they wear out, fry, short, kill drive trains. Yes they are so capable but no they are not robust enough. I have seen our hire fleet die, like worn out in 5 Late Autumn / Winter months in the forest. Our terrain is brutal, sharp sand, flint, mud, slop more wet sand and oh more slop. Totally mashes the bikes. Plus it the UK, it rains, like really rains, eebs and water do not mix!

[@reecenewton3097]

@@brendanberry8852 Really off topic, but electricity and water and steam don't mix anywhere: avoid washing machines and dishwashers with fancy touch-screen controls and pretty flashing lights: a mechanical timer does the job and lasts. Perhaps we could add puddle water and sand, and expand this truth to the new electronic derailleurs: Question: who needs that trouble?

[@krsvbg1989]

I used Facebook marketplace to sell mine. It was a Canyon CF - I paid 4K, but I sold it for 2K. Unfortunately, people that have over 5K to spend on bikes, simply prefer to buy them new from the store so that 1) they know they haven't been ridden to death and 2) they get the warranty. Another reason for the slow sales is the season. It's Winter. Only few weirdos like us STILL ride outdoors. Many ether stop completely for hiking for skiing, or they just go to Zwift.

[@janeblogs324]

Exactly. Warranty, rich people, not having to message back and forth waiting around. People won't even drive 30kms to get a deal today

[@reecenewton3097]

Our Motto: "We ride in every month of the year." In Pennsylvania, no less!

[@jacklo325]

So nice to see you pumping out new videos every other days!

[@bigslacker666]

This is actually a good correction. It was just ridiculous for quite a few years. Also I need a new lightweight trail bike for the upcoming season so timing works out for me. ;)

[@ltdanyj]

The bike industry is going through a HUGE correction right now, that was originally supposed to happen 3 years ago... In the past couple months, several shops have closed in my area, and the ones that are open either are being bought by trek, or can't find people to work for them!

[@chadwells7562]

My heart bleeds for them

[@livinb450]

I had a store for 20 years that I sold just before the pandemic. i spent that year missing the best retail year ever, but now see that things are back to how it was before, except worse. These big bike companies expect growth every year year, and expect you to warehouse their bikes on your books. I'm so glad I'm not juggling, and stressing for a big bike company.

[@albertocastillo4572]

Great video Josh, since that last video I started checking out the marketplace for Ontario and the prices are still in Lockdown "bikes are the new Toilet paper mode" where you find a 10 year old poorly maintained 26 entry level bike trying to be sold at the original retail price. I work at a bike shop lucky for me we just do custom stuff, but so far no sale prices from any of our distributors maybe by spring we will see something. But I totally agree with your views and really hope that some stuff comes down in price.

[@MrDarkGhost]

For real! I have been looking at getting something new for me but FB marketplace in Ontario seems to be disconnected from reality. Dude posting a 2017 trek remedy for 3.2k Canadian Pesos...

[@ryan3194]

I just put my 2020 Giant Propel up on FB Marketplace also in Ontario. I priced it high, or at least I thought it was high just to have some room to work with. I then checked out what other people are asking for their Propels for similar bikes. Turns out my "higher" asking price is actually a bargain in comparison.

[@jerrodcoon6108]

I just bought a mint 2020 Stumpjumper Alloy with upgraded brakes, bars, stem, grips, pedals and air fork for $1000 US. It doesn’t even have a speck of dirt on it, tires still have the little nubs on them.

[@mattcameron9349]

Last week I bought a 2020 Cube Analog for £325. The previous owner bought it 18 months ago during lockdown for £799 on a bit of a whim, went out on it a total of 4 rides (all on a local country road) totaling "about 25 miles". Practically given away!!

[@tamastenhaaff2291]

Damn thats a steal, i recently bought a used 2017 cube ltd race for half price altought it had been well used

[@cream8701]

?

[@bmherbst9895]

Hey Josh, I'm sitting up in Powell RIver, B.C., Canada in the PNW. I got into MTB more seriously about 5 years ago. I'm doing the BC Bike race this year...if I can get my fitness up! After I learned some basic mechanic skills, I will never buy a complete bike again. So I bought a Nukeproof Reactor frame new, off of Chainreactioncycles. Just over C$2000, full carbon, factory shock. I took my components from my custom Scott Genius, put them on the Nukeproof, sold the frame for about $1600, now I am good to go for the race. Online websites ALWAYS have awesome sales end of year, I have been able to afford this sport by shopping great specials which has been around since I started. I have bought and sold LOTS of stuff on pinkbike as well. My point?...If Yeti (and others) are asking $5000 for a frame, people will realize this is a cash grab and they are now going to suffer for it. You can build a top tier custom bike for $5000-$6000 if you are just a bit savvy with some self educated skills.

[@jaredrude431]

Bike shops in NC are packed full of inventory and have been for a long time and used market bikes are sitting for sale here as well. I'm kicking myself that I bought my 12YO a new SJ Evo frame when Specialized had the 25% off black Friday sale, I could have waited a couple months and bought a whole bike for only a little more. 😲 This summer is going to be ugly for sellers.

[@thebeatclinic9000]

The most desirable bikes have priced themselves out of the market. Who wants to spend £6000 (GBP) on a new bike when you can get a used bike, a year or two older, that's almost the same spec for half the price or sometimes less. Economics in action. Most people just aren't willing to spend used car money on a new mountain bike and mountain bike companies will learn that the hard way.

[@pauldelarzac615]

Great video. I offered a guy on PB $2700 for a $3000 frame in October. He said no, and here we are in January and it’s still listed. Today I would not offer more than $2000. The market is balancing out, but sellers are still thinking it’s 2021. Lol.

[@Jean-jk4zv]

I'm watching a bike on an aftermarket site for 3 months, went from 2500 to 2050 as of today... droppin' !

[@BartAnderson_writer]

The lower end of the used bike market is slowing too. I watch vintage road bikes and some sit on the online markets for a long time.

[@lihtan]

I have a very mint Bianchi that I've had listed for year. I've had a couple nibbles, but it's still for sale despite two price reductions.

[@christianpeters6579]

I’m planning on flying to Whistler in late august from Manitoba, buying a bike used, and shipping it home in a hockey bag.

[@chrispudleiner4908]

I’ve been telling all my buddies who need to upgrade, now or in the next few months is a great time to find the bike you want. It’s a buyers market.

[@sergiolandz6056]

good the price of pedal bikes need to come down, it makes no sense to pay 5k for mid range.

[@leomman0913]

If you live in an area where there is a high amount of riders, there will be an over saturation of the market. So for people living in a more lukewarm market we would have to travel or deal with the hassle of getting it shipped

[@leomman0913]

I have been looking for a gravel bike local one somewhat modern. Not seeing any good options

[@mmodtomic7119]

Zero warranty on used bikes and parts. Even at half off, if you didn't notice that crack in the carbon frame until After cash was exchanged...was it worth it?

[@johnlewis8168]

Good! High End regular and ebikes at £8-12k are taking the pish! Been eyeballing Specialized Turbo Levo Comps for around £3-3.5k on BookFace Marketplace.

[@mushieslushie]

I think brands will have to lower their prices. They raised them due to the increased demand (and probably also increased costs) but they need to start lowering them back down. I got a 2019 Spectral in 2020 right at the start of the pandemic and it was an absolute steal. Couldn't be happier.

[@harryls1283]

Dude, those are really good prices but not in my area (Dallas, TX)

[@coopersharp2921]

As a kid who barely has any money, I've been looking for a decent mountain bike (above walmart quality) on many different apps, and it is just hard to find anything good below $500. I got bitten by the mtb bug, but It tears me apart every day when I wake up to realize I am not "there" yet. I hope to get a job soon, but I hope prices go down so I can at least get out and have a great ride.

[@Jean-jk4zv]

Wish you luck for you job, you'll enjoy your bike so much, be warry, buy cheap, buy twice. better work twice as much and get a really decent build

[@JerryHazard]

The Market is going to have a rough year, people IN the industry are even in agreement. That said, MTB prices have been too high for over a decade (yeah, I'm that guy), so maybe this will be an equalizer. Maybe companies will now have to figure out how to produce affordable bikes, instead of trying to market hype the lifestyle so hard. I get that material costs go up, and shipping too, especially post Covid. But prices have been nuts since long before supply chain excuses. The industry needs a reset. A bike shouldn't be a financial "investment", and resale value should be far lower down the priority scale than it is. The status of the used market is a great example. And the host said it perfect: bike tech hasn't really increased in say the last 5 years (I'd say 10, but...) Yet prices just go up in kind as if the new "advancements" are the reason. It's a difficult point to see, especially if one is immersed deep in the culture, but is no less valid.

[@Photo.photo1]

you have a very good point i was looking for a second hand bike but the reason i didnt buy one was because the warranty doesn't aply for the sencond owner on the canyon touque al

[@alexisonbike3652]

Totally not happening yet at home =\ Maybe because it's winter here and people are waiting for spring to put their bikes on the market

[@TheAngryHusky]

I have a garage full of bikes that I guess I'll be keeping now. I don't plan on buying anything that I don't absolutely need in 2023. This applies to everything, not just bike stuff.

[@spicymtbchannel]

It’s winter time genius this happens every year. The price of cold weather gear goes up and summer gear goes down…

[@CharlieMetcalf]

Location is also a factor, you live in a prime biking state. I live in South Carolina. We have "left in the yard and rusted" Walmart bikes trying to be sold for 300. Very few high end stuff being sold.

[@MrSEANDEERE]

You should do an update video around the end of march/April when the bike season really picks up in North America.

[@matthewnorris203]

Now that’s what I’m talking about. Damn great video and perspective on the market. Thank you!

[@rodrigopages1054]

For actual riders this is heaven if you’re looking to upgrade your bike either parts of it or the whole thing

[@horusgarcia1]

All the specialized base models went down. I remember when my new 2013 Rockhopper Sport cost me $780 on sale and now it's $565. It's a good time for beginners.

[@sprousaTM]

I used to buy barely used bike parts here in germany over consumer marketplaces and build up bikes to sell again. Could make some profit, up to 50% more than the parts did cost. But the market has crashed so hard in the last months. Lots of bikes available for incredible prices NEW. Noone buys "good" bikes from private persons anymore. 6 months ago there were hardly any good specced complete bikes available in medium and large sizes, hence the good used market. I gave up building bikes. Too bad, I could upgrade all of my own bikes with the profits of the sold bikes and did not have to spend a penny of my salary ;)

[@julianrime8544]

Just bought a mint transition sentinel alloy gx build used and it was 2300 less than retail, with one up bars and stamp 3 pedals included!

[@brianhely3910]

This is one of the most fun parts of the sport, is finding value in things that are subjectively undervalued, or otherwise disproportionately unappreciated by faulty "common knowledge". There's lot of great technology out there, finding what works best, holds up, and fits your aesthetic preferences is an rewarding aspect of the sport. Definitely the flip side of this is miscalculating as a consumer and buying something not backed by warranty that fails, or overpaying for something, or just realizing something doesn't suit you and then having to sell it... there's a zen approach to this stuff, and who can feel at peace when their bike is not working and making a lot noise?

[@hahayeah3159]

I think something that is overlooked is the frame color. I’ve watched other videos where oversupply or inflated prices are often mentioned, but the eye appeal of colors should also be considered. I can’t speak for everyone, but when I was purchasing a bike in 2020, I wanted more than just a black or white frame. If I’m going to spend that amount of money, new or used, the frame color needs to be exactly as I imagined.

[@chadwells7562]

Spot on. You’re going to have the bike for many years, no reason to get anything that’s not 100% what you want

[@OverTheHillMTB]

Couple of things, Forks are probably the most tricky to sell bc of varying steer tube lengths; so if yours is cut a for your current bike it is sometimes difficult to find the right buyer, i have sold probably 3 forks the last 3-4yrs and i haven't noticed the discount going up or down, it's usually pretty steep though especially if its already been cut. On the bike part, i am confused as to what economic model you are using other than "eyeballing" current data w/o any graphs showing a trend line. Of course you would buy used (don't forget about shipping off Pinkbike or some other site into your used price) if you were getting a $1400-1600 discount on used v new and didn't mind used (i will come back to that)--i don't really see those as huge discounts btw, seem normal to a little short given the value of a bike generally drops 20% after it hits dirt or tarmac the first time. but again its two data points in one timeframe, the conclusions are flawed by a lack of data--you still could be right, but i wouldn't take you to Vegas w. me. The other questions affecting the used market both price and time available are 1) how used? That's when the buyer upon closer inspection looks at that used bike and says "wow its not Like New!" 2) And how available is new? With new being stocked on many brands sites, i know this is counterintuitive but that supply can and often will push used prices down compared to a year or more ago when you couldn't get new to save your life or at least extend the bikes time on Pinkbike resell--they really would have data to crunch btw. The silent hand in all of this is The Psychology of Consumption whereby ppl like new, they like the satisfaction of new, they will power through buyers remorse for new, and so w/ that you may also see used sitting on a site longer given the availability of new. I do think bc of New being in greater supply you of course will see new prices come down and come closer to used, which means the big loser in all of this and perhaps this is what you were saying is the Used market seller. Okay i am done.

[@jasper_of_puppets]

Please learn to use paragraph breaks to separate ideas and make your writing easier to read. A long, run-on paragraph is uninviting and painful to look at.

[@OverTheHillMTB]

​@@jasper_of_puppets good pt, i will do better.

[@jasper_of_puppets]

@@OverTheHillMTB 👍

[@icantgivecredit871]

I was thinking the same thing, regarding new bikes: it's flawed to assume that most -- or even many -- people would prefer a used bike for even significantly less than an equivalent new bike's MSRP. There's undeniable value placed on items that are brand new. Some of these reasons are purely psychological, but many of them are practical. Getting a brand-new bike gets you a receipt of purchase; it gives you a fresh warranty; it gives you a break-in tune-up; it gives you the peace of mind of knowing that your bike has no prior riding history; it can help you build your credit score, and the list goes on. I understand that the point of the video was to highlight the slumping new-bike market by sharing the assertion that even used bikes aren't being moved... but I don't think that any one entity is at fault. The problem is that new supply is returning to normal, making both used and new bikes into commodities no longer comparatively rare. With new bikes, it's because supply chain management is beginning to improve; with used bikes, the issue is that the market is now saturated with "pandemic bikes." If the new bike market is bad enough to where it's conclusively suffering, it's for a separate number of reasons -- the one explicitly mentioned being that bike geometry and design has reached a point of maturity and will remain fairly stagnant for the foreseeable future; the other two being that we now have big-box bikes that are giving entry-level LBS bikes a run for their money, and that -- just perhaps -- those who badly wanted a good bike had already found theirs and are not in a position to sell it (and would be hard-pressed finding a buyer anyway). All of these issues are intertwined, so I don't see a straightforward causal relationship anywhere. The most that can be said is based on an observation of simply what is happening.

[@Jean-jk4zv]

It's kinda stupid (not you) cause you can replace the tubes for cheap.

[@michaelglidewell1524]

The manager of my local bike store predicted this just before Thanksgiving last year. There's also an owner of a bike store talking about this on KZbin about a month ago. Same kind of thing is happening in the automobile market.

[@barrettpdx]

Great video. Here I am in July 23’ and found your video because I listed some race bikes I no longer used. I wasn’t getting any hits, so I searched the market and damn! used Prices are rock bottom. Good insight because your predictions are right on 😢

[@mrupholsteryman]

I bought a bike that rode great! My first full suspension! I was stoked! For 300! Rode it in the parking lot. Shifted great. Took it to the trails...realized it was too big a bike for me. I spent another 100 on shorter stem and a shallower seat in attempt to make it closer for me.... and I was offered (after the upgrades) 50 bucks at a bike shop. I had it online offered for a while. I ended up giving the bike to a neighbor...it fit him. Buyer's remorse? Not so much now. But for a while I was so frustrated over the fact that while it was 2021 and I got a 1999 FSR for a fraction of what it cost new and was (with the exception of the plastic pedals and a much larger frame than fit my body well) I was very excited! I heard this bike was 1000 new! And in the "evolution" of new technology and fads and bike snobbery (and my lack of discernment) my experience was...that there is a buyer for most seats until those seats don't have droppers...in which case you can't give it away...(so I did) now I'm starting over with a Wal-Mart Walgoose Ledge X1 and will upgrade with better parts and maybe when I'm done... I'll have spent less than what a new super name brand will get due to popularity or marketing or other sales tactics where they sell you the sizzle and not the steak.... I'm no dentist and I enjoy riding and I'm sorry if I come across negative as I truly love the community of people that ride together...but there are times where I think that the industry seems to think everyone is made of more money than our gov't has....(and they right fake money)....

[@timothyandersen1533]

That stumpjumper is now 2000 new!

[@at20rule]

This bikes S-SJ MSRP was $2200 when they purchased it in the last couple years. Specialized prices went up. Also Marin, polygon, and factory direct still are better buys at lower prices.

[@andrewrowe5668]

By all means keep doing the vids, as it great advice etc, thanx!

[@zedddddful]

Makes more sense now to just upgrade your current ride it's what I did really happy with it and it's less wasteful.

[@zoomzoom8704]

You also have companies like Pacific cycle really stepping it up. I've got a schwinnaxum DP and for less than $500 including tax, it came with tubeless ready 29x3.5(I might be wrong on that width) wheels and tires an internally routed dropper post, tapered head tube, 1x8 narrow wide with a clutch derailleur (axe branded but identical to box components) and a decent air fork with a lockout. The air fork is definitely the weakest part of the whole kit, It's a decent entry level. Fort and we'll do fine as long as you're not taking giant jumps. The fork is really soft and while being able to bounce off of things might give a new writer confidence with experience it feels imprecise and really wallow on banked corners or jumps. It's also a straight shaft with an adapter to fit the tapered head tube in the frame. It is kind of nice that you can reuse the adapter so that you can use basically any aftermarket fork with the bike, but it's also really the only drawback compared to what specialized is offering.

[@lukasvrana6388]

I bought enduro ebike last year.... this year the price jumped around 2000USD up ... market is going bananas.

[@determinedskeptic]

The market for used bikes is definitely slowing...friend of mine just sold a 2021 S-Works SJ Evo with just a few paint chips (the usual) for $4k...it was a $10k bike new! Someone got a massive bargain in that sale

[@KurtisPape]

5 years ago I purchased a 2017 Cannondale Jeykll discounted from $9500 to $4400 because it had a couple rock chips. I upgraded the bike to XX1 eagle, new wheelset and tires then went to sell it for $4500, well it didn't sell until I dropped the price to $3500, I agreed to sell it at $3250 and last minute cancelled as I loved the bike. Kept it ever since and it has been a really good bike and wouldn't have been worth virtually giving it away.

[@KurtisPape]

AUD that is

[@noredcr]

Could it be too that the market is correcting itself. New bike prices were out of control and people are finally waking up.

[@lukewalker5111]

I saw this situation in the used bike market and feel i got the deal of the century when I bought a 2yr old trek Slash 9.8 with fox 36, fox X2, dt swisse hubs, RSC brakes, drive train upgrade, carbon bars and stem upgraded and carbon wheels for 4k. There's some deals to be found for sure.

[@Jean-jk4zv]

Interesting video, i live in France, and for the past two years, selling used bikes over 1000$ became really hard. People have lost interest in cycling, the cost of life is increasing, common people with money will prefer eBikes. So I'm not surprised there will be tons of bargains on the aftermarket. Cannot wait to see what happens in 2024 with manufacturers stock side. 💣

[@MMcG25]

I wonder how much shipping is playing a part in bikes sitting for so long on the used market. For example Pinkbike - it's so damned expensive to ship at the moment people may not be interested in a particular bike because it also means an additional $200 or $250 for it to be packed up and shipped (rough estimates).

[@metalmavenmike80]

I'm still blown away how a $1,300 bike is beginner. When I rode BMX professionally in the 90s, a $600 bike was full tilt. I can damn near get a dirt motorcycle for the same price of a transition. Sad to think my $1,200 2012 Camber Comp pro 26 i got used during covid for $500 I thought was a steal, shows me how much of a "size competition" MTB seems to be behind scenes.

[@stevencole7331]

My son and daughter bought me a 2021 used Cannondale Scaple for 4k used a year ago from the owner of a bike shop who rode it lightly for 8 months . The bike prices in at 6k new . So this may have begun a bit earlier in the used market . Now I don't see any price drops for new components and you still find low levels of inventory probably maintaining that higher price point . So yes Josh the used market maybe a better place to go for price but we must remember you never know what you get buying online used without a warranty and basically sold as is .

[@growlith6969]

I always thought it was weird that bike people didn't think their bikes should depreciate heavily. They aren't a Ferrari, they are more like dirt bike. They get heavily used off-road, you can't tell how many times the previous owner stuffed it, and they usually want more for a modified bike when virtually everyone wants to buy something stock. Take it from someone in the car world, you don't get extra for your extras, you get less because you screwed with it. And besides that, it's normally young professionals that buy expensive mountain bikes for weekend warrior activities and they are getting laid off in record numbers right now. The money conveyor belt is over for the tech crowd, the suck is in. Also another bit of advice, I'm in the market to buy right now, you can have my money, but the ads SUCK. I don't know every make and model and I'm not going to Google every bike with a 2-5k price tag on marketplace to see if your price is insane or not, I don't know what your mods are supposed to be worth, and I don't even know if your mods actually work better than what it came with. Have a sense of reality here, take some time and market to your audience, because if they are a bike geek they already have the bike they want, so you are selling most often to passively motivated buyers.

[@mikagami69]

Man I miss the 'ham! The Reno/Tahoe market is still out of control, but it is getting better. I think the easy availability of cash down here props prices up a bit more, unfortunately. Maybe I can start getting a decent price by summer? It's hard to keep 5 kids riding to school, on trails and in the snow, hahaha. Thanks for the content!

[@JamesBriano]

Not at all surprising. In summer 2020 I was outraged by the prices and availability. I told everyone who would listen: Just wait three years-the market will be FLOODED with "rode only once" mint-condition used bikes.

[@boydcrowder4436]

I concur with your thinking, However, I will tell you from experience that some sellers on FB or similar market places DO NOT always remove the item once it has sold. The bike you mentioned being listed since August...I'd bet dollars to donuts that it sold at some point and seller never pulled it down.

[@Jean-jk4zv]

absolutely, there are even people posting items not intending to sell them, only to pass time and watch people asking for them.

[@b5454]

It's still a stalemate both sellers and buyers can just wait till biking season starts. If they don't sell by summer that's when we'll see actual price cuts.

[@TwowheeledadventureVT]

I bought and sold high end bikes during the pandemic, it's SUCH a different market now. I'm curious how the boutique brands will do trying sell their high priced bikes this year....

[@reggiesanders1284]

Um, hello? Devoted cyclist here. The problem I see is this. As a kid I used to go to the Hardware Store with my Dad. There he could kick around ideas he had for home improvement. Other neighbors circulated through as well. He spent real money on product but the real reason he was there was the relationship with store owners. Five years ago bike shops operated similarly - bikes, purchases, service, ideas. Like it or not it was a gathering place for cyclists and others wanting same. We too and do spend real dollars. Now it’s all about marketing, promotion and sales of the next new thing - the thing(s) we don’t need. You’ve lost us! Bring back the bike dudes and gals. You’ve lost your way! 😢

[@themeatnpotatoes]

In my area I saw a lot of new mountain bikers when Covid hit, seemed like everyone ran out and bought bikes to be outside. Outdoor sports definitely blew up, but now getting back to normal a lot of people became uninterested and are selling all this outdoor equipment ie bikes. Meh my 2 cents anyway 🤷🏽‍♂️

[@dcv9460]

Awesome INSIGHT 💯👍 Thank you

[@1xbikes]

That Stumpjumper alloy is now reduced on Specialized's own website, to 2099 usd as of the 27 of January. Good luck selling the used one for 1700 usd.

[@BasicBeachCommunity1]

It's awesome I've seen bikes on sale I'm so excited 🌴🌴🌴

[@willbros1499]

If it's like here in Arkansas, a big driver of the used market is from people wanting to move to an eBike. There's an abundance of available used "Amish" bikes, and I think it's in large part due to the proliferation of eBikes. A reasonably priced eBike will typically sell in a matter of hours, or even minutes, just on a local Facebook page. I guess that will drive down the price of "Amish" bikes, but I don't know that it will affect prices of new eBikes. They still seem to be selling really well locally, so I think at least a part of it is a migration to pedal assist eBikes. I guess we'll see....

[@DHOBSESSIONS]

Bro it’s been like that since 2018, I’ve been doing the pink bike used market since 2012, I could never afford over 3k for a new bike.... and yes since 2015 only the boost spacing has been changed, over all the mtb market is so way over priced, it’s all most like dirt bikes prices

[@Budschidau]

Got a Focus Sam2 with EP8 for 2999 EUR. Solid specs like Yari, GX Eagle, 200mm Shimano 4 piston, etc. Great bike

[@bethrudolph2006]

Prices are all over the place in the used market right now, and good deals on good bikes are just sitting there with no interest. I've seen people listing their bikes at stupid high prices, not willing to negotiate and others priced to sell. I picked up a great deal on a like new C 30 (base model) 2022 Rocky Mountain Element. I have a longer travel trail bike which I love, but most of my riding is more XC/trail focused and I like to do marathon races occasionally so I thought a short travel trail bike would be a better fit for me overall. However, now I am trying to sell my 2 year old Pivot Switchblade with a nice upgraded carbon wheelset in great condition and I am getting no bites at all with it listed at less than half of what I paid and put into it! I've dropped the price twice already, its the lowest priced one now on Pinkbike, especially with its build and upgrades, and been sitting there for almost 2 months! I've sold many mountain bikes over the years, and have a pretty good idea of what things actually sell for used, and I've always priced mine very fair and reasonable.. blows my mind sometimes what people expect to get for their used bikes! I have a friend who may buy it, I hope, lol.. But if she doesn't, I think I'll just keep it. I could use the cash for sure right now, but its still a great bike that I will definitely ride and I'm not willing to take more of a loss than that in selling it. I was hoping I could sell it and use part of those funds to upgrade the Element, but it's beginning to look like I might be stuck with a 3 bike quiver instead of 2, which in the end is not such a bad problem to have😜

[@jimmyaugustine4181]

Bikes are WAAAAY to expensive now days.....because people pay. Will be interesting to see where this goes. I got my popcorn 🍿.

[@TheRicardoSanchez]

As much as it would hurt me in a resale circumstance, the bike industry has taken egregious advantage of the consumer over past couple years with absolutely stooooopid prices for everything..... so retail price-slashing is more than welcome and overdue. The consumer has been getting absolutely abused and aggressed..... downright assaulted. Same with everything, not just bikes. And no it's not just inflation due to $$ printing. Wholesalers and retailers in every industry have been assaulting consumers for a few years now - because consumers enabled them to. A major correction is overdue. I will take a loss on my still-great 2021 whip to get a big break on brand new. It all washes.

[@letour32rr]

Yup, used market is toast. Just sold my 2020 RSD Middlechild with Fox 34 Factory, NX Eagle Drivetrain, and Zee brakes for $1300 after sitting on marketplace for nearly a month.

[@samharris82]

It started around 12 weeks ago and was like flipping a switch. I save stuff I like or similar to what I have and NONE of them have sold in 12 weeks meanwhile everything listed more than 12 weeks ago was sold.

[@alexandrucovaliov8989]

It's funny that you guys have these prices. The used bikes here in Canada are close to the price in the shops. Many owners want their money back claiming upgrades they made. And the prices for the bikes, used or new are is the price of a brand new car.

[@peterk2455]

The wife and I own 6 bikes, 2 foldies we keep in our lsa, 2 big wheels and 2 urban bikes. All of them Giant, retail total over $4k.. We got them used, not a spot of rust on chains. We PAID a total of $82 for ALL of them.

[@therealphilistein]

Used market in the UK is screwed too. We have a thing called the “cycle to work” scheme, which has made the situation worse because people have been buying bikes through the scheme for effectively less and are therefore willing to sell them for less. That’s compounded things on top. It’s a good time to find a barely used bargain for sure.

[@Stevo_YouTube]

That's interesting that you say lots of people are selling C2W bikes. I know the schemes vary but on the one I'm on I can't legally sell it as it's not mine. It's on a free extended lease for many years after I initially paid it off. I know some schemes let you buy it out at the end of the initial term though.

[@therealphilistein]

@@Stevo_KZbin people are selling them before they're even paid off mate. It's madness.

[@Gabesafish]

MTB’s are basically luxury items considering what they cost these days. What you are noticing in terms of a stall in new bike sales as well as used, is also happening across all similar luxury goods market’s as we are entering a recession at the same time as inflation in many areas is accelerating. People are not comfortable to spend right now on these sorts of things. Others are already so financially impacted that they are having to sell off their equipment to make ends meet. Another factor…it’s the middle of winter…sales always slow during this season. 2023 will be a doozy.

[@Peanutdenver]

Agreed. I was shopping around for a new watch and both the Omega and Breitling watches are dropping in price rather quickly. Both new and used luxury items are on a slide as inflation is slapping everyone in the face as we enter a recession.

[@raupenimmersatt6906]

@@Peanutdenver Omega will up their prices in coming time- so 2x Times on like 6 months- they wont get cheaper sadly when bought new

[@Peanutdenver]

@@raupenimmersatt6906 I agree with and acted accordingly.

[@hambo76]

Perhaps brands could use some of their marketing money to help build more trails, and more transport facilities to get more people riding. It would help soak up a lot of new and used stock if people re-engaged with mountain biking or even gravel riding. The US is so car centric that people have to drive hours to get somewhere interesting.

[@photorockbar471]

governments have to give permits to build trails if not on private land. Where are you talking about?