The Black Sea & The Naval War in Ukraine - Drones, Grain, Blockades & the Bridge to Crimea

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Description:
While the hardest fighting in Ukraine takes place on land, the Black Sea front saw a stand-off through most of 2022 and early 2023. Russia's fleet was ranged away from the coast by AShMs, but continued to fire cruise missiles from afar.
As time has gone on, the fighting has evolved and new weapons have been deployed, including long range drones. At the same time, the deal which allowed millions of tonnes of foodstuffs to safely transit the Black Sea now seems to have ended, setting the stage for a potential escalation in fighting and a potential blockade.
In this episode, I look at the naval war in 2023, the strikes on the bridge, and the potentially vast implications of the end of the grain export deal.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats and corrections:
All standard caveats and comments apply
At one point I refer to Russia's reasons for 'remaining' in the grain deal. From context I hope it's clear I mean to refer to the decision to leave/not renew it.
Reporting & reading:
Relevant TASS Reporting:
tass.com/politics/1571451
tass.com/defense/1650349
tass.com/emergencies/1648153
tass.com/politics/1648201
tass.com/economy/1648647
tass.com/economy/1651875
tass.com/politics/1650421
tass.com/economy/1649315
tass.com/politics/1631649
Turkish efforts last year::
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1...
US claims of russian mine laying
news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russ...
Reporting on grain deal
www.politico.eu/article/the-b...
apnews.com/article/grain-impo... (grain import bans in EU)
www.reuters.com/world/russia-...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7...
www.rferl.org/a/russia-odesa-...
www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/wo...
www.ft.com/content/21065943-4...
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
apnews.com/article/black-sea-...
www.telegraph.co.uk/global-he...
The CNN video of UA naval drones
edition.cnn.com/2023/07/30/eu...
Reporting on Erdogan claiming the extension of the grain deal
www.dw.com/en/erdogan-claims-...
Reporting on AU and grain deal
www.politico.eu/article/afric...
Reporting on Sevastopol defences
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/...
Opinion piece by retired US admiral on the possibility of escorting navy ships
www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/...
Australian Exports:
www.agriculture.gov.au/about/...
Decline in UA production
www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/...
Ukraine drone attacks
www.aspistrategist.org.au/ukr...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1...
www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Marit...
International Law Studies Vol 64, The Law of Naval Operations
The Law of Submarine Warfare Today - Jon L. Jacobson
digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi...
Bridge attack:
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - The Black Sea
00:01:29 - What Am I Talking About?
00:03:42 - The Black Sea Campaign To 2023
00:10:39 - The Bridge
00:18:58 - The Grain Deal
00:24:19 - Cutting The Lifeline?
00:36:42 - Grain, Markets, Politics
00:42:40 - Impacting The Players?
00:50:23 - Alternative Options
00:56:51 - A New Theatre Of War?
00:59:00 - Conclusions
01:00:17 - Channel Update

[@PerunAU]

Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. Try Ground News today and get 30% off your subscription: ground.news/perun Sound quality should be back up to scratch this week, thanks for your patience whenever that gets difficult. I've only talked about the Naval war once in the past, and since then the combination of the Grain deal and the mutual stand-off has mostly kept the theatre relatively quiet compared to the vicious fighting on land. But for all the talks of 'stalemate,' this war is more defined by constant adaptation and change than it is by stasis. With new weapons evolving (including naval kamikaze drones), new tactics being developed and the immense geopolitical fallout around the end of the Grain Deal, it's entirely possible we're on the verge of a new stage of the war in the Black Sea. And so today, I wanted to talk about it.

[@charlesbrightman4237]

USV's: Single use subs: With a single let's just say 'device' onboard. No ship or port would be safe.

[@rocko7711]

🇺🇦

[@akumaking1]

Poopy Joe’s handlers put ads on your video.

[@NorroTaku]

actually it sounds worse on my end more digital robot ish voice normally its perfect maybe its my end tho

[@postron5649]

You forgot to include the y-axis with the chart at 20:45.

[@squireson]

This video, like many of Perun's, generates as many questions as it answers. I want to say that this is the only comments section where I feel comfortable posting some of those questions. Here I have actually received thoughtful and helpful answers. Thank you all for that.

[@LimabeanStudios]

Yes agreed, there is a general understanding that discussion about the war is done in good faith here which isn't very common online.

[@vic5015]

Just as well. I'm always skeptical of *anyone* who claims to have *all* of the answers on a topic as complex as the Ukraine war.

[@nielsharksen78]

The comment section of Perun's videos is considerably above average indeed. Knowledgeable posters, good questions, politeness and little reaction baiting. Quite remarkable for videos with 250k+ views on average.

[@09csr]

​@@nielsharksen78 Agreed, I feel it might be due to the nature of the content. I feel the powerpoint format along with Perun's open way lend itself to an environment what benefit a "discussy" atmosphere, and to some extent the content gels well with people who like to actually discuss and debate the content at hand in a polite way.

[@DeaconBlu]

After reading many comments and reply’s, I agree completely.

[@rknowling]

Perun, thankyou for your emphasis in this talk on the humanitarian dimension. For me, one of your harder-hitting presentations. Keep up the good work mate.

[@tarstarkusz]

The humanitarian angle is just a rhetorical framing device. Ukraine is not a charity. This grain is not free and it generates billions of Dollars for Ukraine to put toward its war effort. This framing is extremely dishonest.

[@dimas3829]

you are thaknign propagandist for his lies. "Humanitarian" grain went for already well-fed Europe. The grain deal was a joke in the first place and Africans didn't get 99.9999% of it.

[@dandrummond9154]

The way our brains handle scale is interesting. When people hear 87,000 Romans marched to Cannae and see battle lines on a page, they don't think 8 to 16 miles of people straight without siege equipment or baggage train. That's a lot. 400,000,000 getting their food from one place is absolutely bananas.

[@BigHenFor]

What is bananas about it? Is starvation bananas? Rome got its wheat from Egypt, as its own capacity for wheat production was limited by its geography, and it's elites poor land management strategy. Geography is destiny. Why do you think both the West and the East are like a pair pf dogs fighting over Ukraine like a rope toy? Starvation and/or Thirst has the potential to destroy civilisations too.

[@dimas3829]

yes, it is bananas cause it's a lie. Ukrainian grain went to already well-fed Europe which wrecked local farmers that are currently are rioting against their US'enslaved authorities to keep the UKrainian grain the fuck out of their markets to not ruin their own agriculture.

[@jaredl8590]

Cool so you dont understand supply and demand.

[@Michael-wo6ld]

​@@surgeon9039Did you watch the video at all? I mean, you sound like a Russian bot so probably not, but commodities like grain will rise in price if significant quantities are removed from supply.

[@weedwacker1716]

mmmmm bananas 🤤

[@fredrikrenstroem1661]

Unlike newspapers, this feels like an *actual* war update! Excellent work!

[@nhansemark]

I wish "Ukraine: The Latest" by The Telegraph interviewed Perun at some point

[@ngails]

Not entirely. He is very biased and not entirely accurate. It is not excellent but fair from Western perspective.

[@HALLish-jl5mo]

Unlike newspapers though, I think he's actually acquired information twice (interviews). Everything else is just analysis after the mainstream media gathered the actual information.

[@dpelpal]

@@ngails I think he's been more than fair. Russia has a very laughable army, and he has told the truth. If you can't handle that, don't call it inaccurate.

[@ngails]

@dpelpal daily I see the video from the front lines one shot one kill. The Russian artillery is excellent. We misunderstood our enemies for decades. USA Debt was just downgraded. It's a debt backed currency. I could go on. When our perspective is narrow we miss. IMF look up Russian debt to the IMF. Putin paid off all of Ukraines debt. He rescued Russia. He works 12 hrs a day for 20 years he does the work of US Presidents entire executive team himself. Watch Oliver stones interviews with him. I am not political. I am not ideological. But I have a superior understanding of the global zeitgeist and it is leaning away from western hegemony and toward multi polarity.

[@Galadonin]

You can't imagine how glad I am to watch your videos while traveling in a train for 5 hours, 1/5 of entertainment is guaranteed now

[@IsaakSpy]

Some quality time to relax and properly take in Perun's wisdom. Hope you have a great journey 😊

[@stc3145]

Fly next time

[@Galadonin]

@@stc3145 I'm trying to be eco friendly lol. Just cheaper and easier to take the train in western EU

[@Galadonin]

@@IsaakSpy Thanks mate ☺️

[@BTechUnited]

​@@Galadoninchiming in to also wish you a comfortable journey

[@TemplinInstitute]

I've been binging your channel for the last few weeks and I'm not sure any KZbin channel has taught me so much, so quickly. Phenomenal work!

[@u2beuser714]

Perun is the best ad for microsoft

[@Connor_Roush]

Remember, the Imperium of Man is Russia, Ukraine is Vraks. Lmao.

[@tylerandrews4375]

Ah templininstitute the fake fan

[@sam8742]

@@tylerandrews4375who hurt you lol

[@shaider1982]

Oh, I like your take on sci fi topics. The one on planetsry invasions and tanks in sci fi are my favorites👍

[@Kyzarc]

Learning that large numbers of Russian civilians were vacationing in Crimea this year a month or two back when the Russian Navy had to set up ferries to carry them all across was one of the starkest reminders to me just how disconnected Russian civil society is from reality.

[@donbalduf572]

Some sources have speculated that Putin wants numerous civilian vacationers in Crimea as a human shield against Ukrainian attacks. We can’t know, but it seems possible.

[@justadude8716]

I believe many of them really do see this as some small scale "special operation"

[@samuelbroad11]

they're russian speakers in the main in Crimea, which, not wanting to unpack that too much; does show how little russian citizens might know about the war.

[@jimmieraper5807]

Wonderful day to observe a lot of neat planes and tanks so shiny admire awesome technology. every day is May day what possibility could be better

[@donkeysaurusrex7881]

It needs to be noted that there are or were 2 million civilians living in Crimea in February 2022. As things get tenser more of these people will decide being further away from the war zone is more prudent. While there are still Russian tourists visiting Crimea, the coming of the war there has ruined the tourist industry which in turn means everything touristy is cheap. Much more affordable than Sochi, Egypt, or Turkey. The tourists going there are betting their lives on the bargain, but there aren’t really that many of them.

[@crashstarr6531]

It is entirely unreasonable how goddamn *funny* your delivery can be when discussing these tragic and sad events. Makes it a lot easier to stomach keeping up to date on things, thank you for all your great work!

[@Rob_F8F]

After Muscova, the Black Sea has fallen out of the news. Thanks for covering this front.

[@u2beuser714]

The Moskva wasnt sunk, you nato drones never understand. Its promoted to a submarine..

[@Rob_F8F]

@@u2beuser714 You are right, of course. I hear they're making a movie about it: The Hunt for Red October 2 - Electric Muscavoo

[@jdawg8487]

@@u2beuser714The sinking of the Moskva was a feint. Stop listening to Western propaganda.

[@Lord_Foxy13]

​@@Rob_F8FA shame they can't reincarnate Sean Connery for it

[@badluck5647]

Zelenskyy visited Snake Island just to keep the story in the news.

[@fencserx9423]

“Buy with their sign on enlistment bonus, put in the garage and never use” I feel personally attacked

[@terrynewsome6698]

I think Ukraine looks at your videos and says "hold my beer", when planning out the next major operation.

[@user-gr7ld4op9p]

I've been watching this extensively for the last month. One of the best discoveries on KZbin for me. Perun, you do an excellent and tremendous job on this channel, uncovering the fog of war and putting everything about this war on the bigger picture for the wider world. And your constant reminders about the fact that there are human lives and human tragedy behind cold numbers of war mean world. As for a guy from the Ukrainian military, I do really appreciate that

[@Stepheno0125]

He really does a good job doesn’t he? Also, best of luck from the USA. I really wish we were giving y’all more. Lift the ban on striking Russian territory with western weapons. If they didnt want to have missiles hitting Russian territory they shouldn’t have invaded. Send ATAKEMs, F-16 with volunteer pilots and crews, more M1A1s, long range cruise missiles and whatever else will help and can be fielded short-medium term. People talk about depleting stocks needed for a hypothetical war, but these weapons were made to stop the ruzzians in the event of war and any war with China is likely to be mainly a naval/air war, so 2000 abrams sitting in the desert arnt going to be missed. Neither are the high flight hour but well maintained F16s that are being replaced with F35. Ukraine will be victorious with proper support. Y’all have balls of steel and hearts of iron. Keep up the fight! Victory will come! Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦

[@Macto5]

Good luck from Australia, warrior. I wish we were doing more to help like our US friend said above. Slava Ukraine!

[@oddsends6048]

@@Stepheno0125 Can you imagine being the USA. You get to fight an old foe. You get to weaken them nearly to the point of collapse. You fight them with weapons you're going to throw away anyways because they are past their best before date. And, best of all, you get to fight them without sending any of your own people into battle. BEST. DEAL. EVER.

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

Yes, he is great isn't he. I used to write long, flowery praises in PERUNs honour for the first year. Now I just say that we, his audience, we few, we happy few, are spoiled rotten.

[@Seraphus87]

I work on the Rhine, water levels are getting cripplingly low again. If we move the grain up the Danube, we'll then need to get it through the Rhein/Main/Donau canal and then down the Rhine and out through Antwerp or Rotterdam. With the unreliable water levels throughout late summer, the movable quantity will be less than satisfactory. My second thought would be using the rail network to get the grain to European ports, but Ukraine's rail network has a different gauge than the European one, so we'd need infrastructure for the transfer of grain from one rail system to an other. That infrastructure is extremely limited and any expansion would likely be targeted by the gremlins in the Kremlin. Trucks could work but are horribly inefficient compared to ships and trains. The best way to solve this situation is for the world to collectively pressure Ivan the terrible to back down and behave.

[@knoll9812]

Alternative transportation is available but much more expensive for a heavy low value crop. One of the reasons why Ukraine exports so much is that it floats grain downriver and puts on ships.

[@olenickel6013]

I think an obvious first step would be to step in as a state and offer insurance to shipping that can't get it on the private market right now due to Russian threats. If Russian hope really is to cause a de facto blockade without needing to enforce it, make it harder for them to do so.

[@hedgehog3180]

tbf you could just build the infrastructure for transferring grain on the other side of the border to make it essentially untouchable. Like build it in Poland and Romania and there's nothing Russia can do. Extending Ukrainian railways a few km into those countries wouldn't be a huge undertaking and can be done pretty quickly.

[@SatanicBunny666]

Hey, logistics major here, you raise good points, but as for the gauge issue: we can solve that with enough capital and political will with a simple workaround: you extend the ukrainian gauge by a few miles into a neighboring country and then you build the railyard aimed at doing nothing but transfering rolling stock from one gauge to another in that country, say Poland. This way the railyard itself will be protected by NATO and out of reach for the Russian military, althougb Ukraine will still have to do the hard job of defending the rail connection from their side, but that's gonna be the case in any scenario. Note that it won't be cheap, but if the EU funds this in collaboration with Ukraine, it can be done, although it will obviously take a while.

[@pieter3525]

@@SatanicBunny666 Indeed! Rolling stock with an ability to shorten/widen the axles do exist! Spain France for example.

[@sjoerdglaser2794]

To highlight the logistical problems of getting grain from Ukraine to Croatia (and its ports). The passenger train route between Odessa and Zagreb goes via Krakow (southern Poland), Czechia, Vienna, Salzburg (On the Austrian German border) and then through Slovenia. That's an expensive and cumbersome route to take.

[@zbigniewmalec4816]

How many times do you need to change gauge or locos due to the different electricity and steering requirements?

[@Jfk2Mr]

​​@@zbigniewmalec4816AFAIK, only once, at Polish-Ukraine border, because gauge

[@cpt_nordbart]

Yeah I thought about mainland transport. Unfortunately boats are great in moving huge quantities at once. Trains go a distant second place I assume. Trucking and airlift is ridiculously expensive and inefficient. I guess we need a hyper loop to Ukraine. Get Elon at it at once!

[@chezmoi42]

@@cpt_nordbart He's awfully busy killing a bird right now...

[@hedgehog3180]

Maybe we can use it to finally get some proper investment in railway infrastructure.

[@DanielLopez-up6os]

The Humour of Perun always keeps me engaged. The "Sufficiently stiff drink" joke was great.

[@siechamontillado]

Perun, you are an amazing breath of fresh air - erudite, methodical, and with a fresh perspective. I'm so glad that you decided to become a KZbinr since I (and I know I'm not the only one) feel that I have a deeper appreciation about the situation in Ukraine, and the military complex in general, thanks to you. Thank you good sir for being you and doing what you do!

[@deepbluedivingexploration]

Perun, I'm sure it's not just me by saying: Thanks to the excellent presentation content, the apparent dip in audio quality was not what I was measuring last week's video on. In other words, please keep rather posting a video recorded under a blanket than skipping in search for a recording studio; everything short of a recording under the shower is probably fine.

[@Zei33]

How is it that you keep putting out consistently top quality content every week. The last month has been excellent episode after excellent episode. Enjoyed every one. Thanks from the Sunshine Coast!

[@oneangrylion9697]

I second this. Also from the Sunshine Coast, lol.

[@adenkyramud5005]

Absolutely agree. Not from the sunshine coast tho, but currently near lake constance aka the swabian ocean 😂 (big lake on the south end of bratwurstland, very beautiful!)

[@NOPEFROG]

​@@adenkyramud5005East Bratwurstistan alhamdulillah

[@Srfingfreak]

Lol Perun always with the timely videos

[@DJToMyHits]

Boy this aged incredibly well.

[@BobfromSydney]

I'm hoping the Ukrainians will be able to get ever more effective with their sea-drones.

[@krissteel4074]

I'm sure of one thing, they can make a lot more drones than Russia can make bridges and warships

[@bigal3055]

They will. To be honest, I'm surprised that they haven't tried to dronify a Nimitz carrier yet.

[@user-ot3wq2ru5d]

very unlikely, the blockade seriosly limits their ability to launch attacks.

[@flickthenick]

​@@bigal3055😅

[@Adv-vr1uh]

We will. Thank you!

[@SeamusCameron]

I feel like many facets of Turkey could be described with the phrase "It's complicated". Definitely looking forward to that video!

[@boobah5643]

"It's complicated" is as all-encompassing (and useless) as "A wizard did it." It's signage for an off-ramp into a different hour-plus power point presentation.

[@grahamstrouse1165]

Turkey is a complicated country…

[@victors4333]

Clarification: Constanta is a large port, but it is not on the Danube. You mentioned it in the context of alternative Danube river options. Yes, it is an option to load up smaller ships under non-ukrainian flags and take them down the river to the Black Sea, then into Constanta, where grains can be transfered onto larger ships. But Constanta in my estimation, is fed ukrainian grains mainly by truck, from Ukraine into Romania and towards Constanta. There are witness accounts of miles long trucks heading to Constanta as I described. Constanta is a Black Sea alternative in its own right, the Danube river notwithstanding.

[@HisameArtwork]

In Magurele (near Bucharest) we've seen quite a few fuel trucks with Ukranian flags. I don't know where they were from but they were heading N-E by the looks of it. And of course the usual trains with tanks and fuel and who knows, can't really tell the carts apart. For the past years, not as much as at the start.

[@Winnas]

There is a canal connection from Constanta to the Danube.

[@victors4333]

@@Winnas Yes, there is, not very deep, not sure what the clearance is. Mostly for barges, would be my guess.

[@andrewmcalister3462]

Interesting. Your post has had me diving into maps to understand it a bit better. The geography of river deltas is never simple!! Thanks for posting.

[@deepinthewoods8078]

6 days later... and the Black Sea fleet keeps on shrinking...

[@hiturbine]

The Black Sea surface fleet is being "modified" into submarines.

[@joknaepkens]

These drone boats are basically modern equivalents of fire ships

[@JABN97]

Much cheaper then a fire ship though. Proper fire ships were often big ships. Maybe a fire boat, as in converted rowing boat?

[@lamwen03]

Ninja

[@Destroyer_V0]

And better, in the sense you don't have to loose good sailors to make em work.

[@JABN97]

@@Destroyer_V0 didn’t need to lose sailors in a fireship. They would use the wind and the tide to let them float slowly towards the enemy, or they’d set sails, bind the wheel to a course for an enemy fleet, then set the ship ablaze and leave for the small rowing boat taken along for that purpose. Usually fireships were used on fleets on anchor, or ones that were otherwise non-mobile. Very few sailors would willingly join a suicide mission with zero chance of survival

[@zanzastrow5600]

I appreciate your continuing emphasis on the humanitarian disaster that is this war - and the ripple effects spreading the tragedy into other countries. So much coverage treats this conflict as if it’s a video game with daily installments, giving equipment/manpower scorecards on losses, as we wait for one side to level up. A large part of the viewing audience has no experience of true war (most of us are lucky enough to live mostly peaceful lives), but we all need to remember that war destroys more than tanks. Thank you for your frequent reminders that this conflict has a deep and widening cost for millions of innocent people.

[@jakeaurod]

But think of the humanitarian benefits... one guy with a serious illness got an ego boost for a few weeks.

[@zanzastrow5600]

Touché!

[@christianweibrecht6555]

Poor countries are starting to realize that putin would let them starve and/or go broke just to gain an advantage in their war

[@christianweibrecht6555]

Honestly, I suspect russia wants a famine because that would cause allot more people to try to enter Europe

[@DigitalNeb]

You're videos are a reminder to me of how important an expert opinion is on making sense of the world today. It's amazing to me that geopolitics can effect me here in the middle of Florida, where rules don't technically exist, but time and again your analysis has helped me to understand why things are happening right here at home. How odd it is that someone from under-Narnia could make sense off the world for a swamp dweller like me. Cheers from the mosquito infested hell that is North-Central Florida.

[@brandonblackfyre5783]

Fuck it still blows my mind that i found this channel when it only had like 30,000 subscribers and was still a gaming channel. To see the support and the views and subscribers blow up on this channel is a great thing to see because Perun deserves it. Perun went from a gaming channel that barely anyone knew about to one of the most relevant and important channels covering this crazy war in Ukraine.

[@verySharkey]

I just cant fathom how blessed we are with your content Thanks Perun

[@WayneTheSeine]

Though I laughed hard at the significance of the Ukrainian raccoon, some emotion swelled inside me. The love for that one cute raccoon symbolizes the goodness of the Ukrainian people. Most of us have seen the videos of Ukrainian troops feeding trench mice, squirrels and the rescue of beavers and marbled poll cats. There is even a video of a mouse riding atop a BMP and Ukrainian soldiers laughing while watching it. The gut punch to the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be the sinking of a Russian submarine....crew and all. Count on it, it is coming.

[@vivienclogger]

This👆

[@SerenityMae11]

x2

[@First-Last_name]

Meanwhile in russia, search "russian man punches camel" He suckered punches it. Tries again and the camel literally kills him.

[@Zephaeon]

There was a Ukrainian fellow in a DC server I'm on who got conscripted and he'd often update us on what was going on, how he was, and he posted a picture once of rescuing a cat trapped in a vineyard. One of his last messages was November of last year, saying he'd been in the middle of an intense warzone for a couple weeks. He's been silent since then. Sometimes I think about all the other small interactions that people have with those caught up in this and the sudden loss of contact and how much this fighting has affected everyone. I hope that all this fighting will end as soon as possible so everyone can go home, rebuild, and reunite with their friends and family.

[@dx-ek4vr]

Sinking a Russian sub will be easier said than done, assuming they don't manage to catch it by surprise. Ukrainians will need something with ASW capability. Perhaps a dedicated ASW helicopter or something, but then they'll need to protect it as well...

[@flyboy1081]

Hello Perun! As always we all really appreciate the in-depth and well researched breakdown of the situation. Keep up the excellent work! As for audio quality, while I noticed the changes in audio last video, none of it sounded bad at all. I’m not an audiophile so maybe I just can’t tell what “bad” audio is, but for the entire video you were clear and easy to understand. Don’t sweat it

[@laurencehastings7473]

Thank you. Yet another brilliant and humerous analysis of the situation. Clearly defined in a narrative that even the most simple (me!) can clearly understand. You take one topic, break it down, suggest options, offer solutions and divulge the possible dangers.

[@xchazz86]

Perun: "There will be no sleep for my audience in Australia."

[@tonybooth4]

I am watching the Oval test so have to decide to run it in the background

[@BTechUnited]

A blessing to those of us oncall.

[@suem5082]

Thank you Perun for covering the Black Sea and grain topics. This is a very interesting but heart breaking issue.

[@tomprice6918]

It’s hard too believe I’ve spent over a week and a half of my life literally just listening to your videos

[@michaelwulff4242]

This is exactly what geopolitics is: an in-depth presentation about the Black Sea. Brilliant!

[@AvengeLaika]

I am a simple man: Perun uploads, I just leave everything I am doing and watch the video.

[@FLUFFYCAT_PNW]

Happy Perun Day to us! These videos are such an absolute treat. Thank you for taking the time to share your analysis with us. It's greatly increased my ability to understand what's happening in Ukraine, and in wars in general. I hope you're well. So long as you make these videos, you have a fan in me, and many others I know.

[@martinlye2748]

As a Canadian sailor we always shuffled our ship around in Thunder Bay to get a load of the proper grains , at maximum 35,000 tons. We were restricted by he locks and a ocean going ship usually took 3 of us. Most gain moved east ( I think ) due to cost.

[@mattbrown5511]

We all appreciate the efforts you go through to bring us your presentations. Thank you very much Perun.

[@Thefly142]

My absolute favorite weekly power point presentation

[@Billy01113]

You have one of the best communities out there, because you deliver some of the best and most comprehensive content in your field (in a entertaining and often funny manner, few other conent creators are matching, when it comes to these topics). And while a lot of your followers watch your video within minutes or hours to your release, I hope more will eventually reward your videos with likes to boost the algorithm! At time of watching less than 10% of people watching have liked the video, come on guys, show some love.

[@JessSimpson1313]

As always the weekly video is the highlight of my day. Id never thought id enjoy power point presentations on military and procurement, yet every Sunday i wake up giddy to watch your next video.

[@marcomadella863]

Your weekly videos have become for me something I don’t want to miss at all costs I also enjoy the dry sense of humor that you sprinkle here and there in the narrative. Thanks again for your work and see you next Monday!

[@shingshongshamalama]

Never mind poorer states, _everyone_ is affected by a sudden enormous drop in the global supply of wheat. If Ukraine's exports are suddenly blocked by Russia, that means the price of those exports on the global market goes up as supply falls. When we're talking about wheat, that affects damn near *everything* in the food industry, directly or indirectly.

[@Grizabeebles]

Russia ending the grain deal could be less about actually blocking exports and more about controlling prices. If memory serves, the grain deal came about because a huge amount of grain was trapped in Odessa and the Ukrainians were on the verge of taking in a harvest with nowhere to put it. Recreating that problem means Russia can time high grain prices to coincide with the Russian harvest while also hurting Ukraine by forcing them to flood the market whenever the black sea ports open again.

[@pechudin9086]

​@@GrizabeeblesSo, short term gain? I cannot imagine the world looking favorably on what amounts to keeping food to ransom.

[@Grizabeebles]

@@pechudin9086 -- It's war. Russia already blew up the Kakhovka dam and compromised Crimea's water supply for *YEARS* in order to delay a Ukranian assault across the Dnipro river for 2-3 months. This is just more of the same. Over 90% of Ukranian wheat is harvested during July and August. Like it or not, Russia needs to delay that income if it wants to undermine Ukraine's warfighting ability.

[@daiakunin]

The Russian government encouraging tourism in an active warzone is a sad indication of its callous disregard for human life, even that of its own citizens.

[@zbigniewmalec4816]

Oh common. Lots of crimean resorts are owned by the oligarchs. Ofc Putin don't want them to have any losses.

[@MariusDone]

... or their desperation in pretending that everything is fine. Because to stop the tourism, they'd have to acknowledge that a problem exists.

[@henryburby6077]

What is up, fellow beau peep?

[@daiakunin]

@@henryburby6077 well howdy there internet person

[@advancetotabletop5328]

The Enforcer went over the multitude of steps Russian vacationers have to go through to reach Crimea (eg. passports, and they can “have a snack”) with the bridge gone. It‘s smh to believe any Russian traveller would actually go through the Russian equivalent of a Chevy Chase Family Vacation. :O

[@nhansemark]

"Blanket over my head" - Your a champ, thank you for your hard work :)

[@PanicProvisions]

This was incredibly important information - I had no idea how dire the food situation was. Thank you. 10/10 video, as usual, no notes.

[@gikigill788]

My Sunday night fix 😊 Regards from Adelaide

[@waynesworldofsci-tech]

Ah yes! Actually I’ve considered the Black Sea to be the crucial front from the start. Edited to add: Ukraine has been dredging the Danube. I forget how many feet deeper they’ve made it, but it is significant, allowing heavier loads to transit up to the Rhine. They’ve also been frantically upgrading Danube port infrastructure to handle more material. I have no data on how much extra can be shipped this way.

[@joetaylor486]

Great information! It makes a lot of sense for the Ukrainians to be doing this.

[@dgiulio2677]

Danube ports were also bombed few days ago

[@waynesworldofsci-tech]

@@dgiulio2677 Yes, they were. It is going to depend on how Ukraine deploys its air defence assets.

[@samuelpaik]

Reallifelore released a video just on this a few days ago

[@waynesworldofsci-tech]

@@samuelpaik Yes, saw it. Also Zeihan mentioned it.

[@yavorrazboinikov9396]

Thank you, Perun! Your work is beyond amazing!

[@Sithman1776]

Thank you, Perun, for yet another engaging video. I don’t know where you find the time to make these and still have a regular life (job, family,/friends, etc) but I sure do appreciate it!

[@przemeks4984]

I love your videos! Does making them occupy all of your time throughout the week?

[@PerunAU]

thanks mate. I don't think I've had any real spare time since March 2022 but I'm not complaining. It's a privilege to be able to do this and other related work.

[@JB-pu8ik]

​​@@PerunAUdon't burn out. Seriously, take a week or two and get some rest when you need it. The war will still be there. Fascinating issues relating to procurement and defense economics will still be there. The legions of thirsty PowerPoint nerds will still be there. You don't really do hot takes anyway (This is a good thing). Perhaps plan some time off around a particularly thorny subject that requires some extra time for information sources to mature? Either way, anither fantastic hour this week. Thank you.

[@fishbaitx]

Next time you go swimming with the dolphins keep in mind flippers distant cousin might be in Russian military service 😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️ This is one pf many reasons i love peruns presentations his dry sense of humor is always on point

[@ojami7370]

i love how you make a video and then more things happen the next week

[@terryredmond6855]

Great to see a fellow Aussie doing so well with consistenly insightful commentry on the Russo-Ukranian war. Well done mate!!!

[@quedtion_marks_kirby_modding]

Perun's videos are so good, i wish Australia was real.

[@MeeesterBond17]

Emutopia, on the other hand, is. All hail the glorious flightless empire! ✊

[@DanielXStaub]

Quote of the day - "It's not a chess move, it's a dick move".

[@benjaminklaassen1784]

I really appreciate the work that you do. You always find a way to keep it interesting, up to date and intelligent. I look forward to seeing your latest every week. Thank you!!!

[@ahtoshkaa]

Thank you for the video Perun. You are awesome!

[@matthewharris7012]

How do you have such in depth videos to the questions I just start asking? I literally just learned yesterday of Ukraine's remote controlled naval drones, outside of some combat video from a year ago I think. I'm hoping this is addressed in the video but if not, you can only do so much, lol. Anyways, as always, thank you for the constant stream of amazing content! It truly is appreciated.

[@bigal3055]

If you go back through Perun's videos, he did an excellent one on the sinking of the Moskva and the overall state of Russia's navy not long after she was sunk.

[@maryannedouglas]

An absolute master class once again Perun 👍 I still cannot quite believe that I look forward every week to a damned hour long powerpoint presentation, but every single week, here i am. And I've convinced family and friends to watch along as well. Call me crazy 💋 💋💋

[@dakov2498]

Another brilliant piece of work! Thanks again for sharing your expertise Perun!

[@kanesoban]

I would be curious to see your view on the role of static defenses and fortifications historically and in this war. How each side uses them, their impact, how to breach them, etc. It seems like a very topical subject.

[@michaeljohnston6811]

Will love to see the one on Turkey. My sense is that it has been tapdancing (randomly? expertly? certainly interestingly) with its many partners, allies and potential adversaries on the geopolitical stage and it would be interesting to see where its military is positioned in that. I think they are using a lot of soft power (position, foot in two camps geographically and religiously and "principle") to obtain advantage from the current chaos around them. I don't have any clear view on what their aims are or might be but it certainly isn't boring.

[@hedgehog3180]

It seems like it's a rule that NATO must have at least one member state that's always getting up to some shenanigans. It used to be France but now Turkey has taken over that role.

[@JosephKano]

​@@hedgehog3180they are being Furkey? Or Turrance?

[@titaniumteddybear]

Excellently structured, comprehensive, and informative video. Thank you.

[@DeaconBlu]

Fantastic video! Very well done. Recent subscriber and I am a Fan! For sure. Keep it coming I love the balance, the analytics & the general format. Informed but not over the top. (The humor is spot on as well 😂) Thanks mate! Well done.

[@calebbearup4282]

I would love to see a Greek Taiwanese, and Ukrainian partnership that develops Sea drone warfare over the next decade.

[@badluck5647]

I'm amazed that Iran doesn't have thousands of these.

[@SpringIsBACK]

I strongly suspect the South Korean will want to be in on that, from a development & sales standpoint at least.

[@graceliu8839]

I understand that Ancient Greece is seafaring merchant civilization and Greece has inherited traditional cargo shipping in the 21th century. But testing grounds and needs between the Mediterranean versus the West Pacific is very different, the seas are harsher here. Last week, there was Typhoon Talim, Typhoon Doksuri this week, and next week might be typhoon Khanun.

[@JB-pu8ik]

​@@badluck5647They kinda do. Speedboats filled with explosives are something that they've worked with, at least in theory to fend off US warships.

[@tonysu8860]

I could imagine Taiwan right now buying up all the jet skis it can find. But I imagine that Chinese detection of tiny surface craft is better than the Russians. But maybe not, who knows... China's emphasis on building a numerically large navy of tiny boats might mean that each and every boat has minimal if any defense.

[@jonson856]

Imo we should take Medvedev's statement totally seriously. So much so that one day when we get our hands on him, we shall apply to him what he advocated for all this time. Feed him his own medicine.

[@JB-pu8ik]

Novichok?

[@SianaGearz]

@@JB-pu8ik From what we know, he self-medicates with copious amounts of wheat ethanol.

[@jimb4779]

Perun, so glad you had an opportunity to touch on all these topics. I was interested how the grain deal was going to impact the war, global politics, and African nations when it was originally announced. Whether by design or not, waiting until the deal fell apart and including the related topics was great. Look forward to my weekly dose of Defense Economics.

[@lifelearner47]

Perfect timing for this brilliant in depth look at The Black Sea Grain Deal. I always finish your videos, Perun, feeling much wiser than when I started them. 😉

[@steves8482]

Excellent again as ever, thanks - glad you can start to make sense of a complex situation and explain things in the way you do.

[@jacobno7400]

Love the video! Amazing quality as always and a fantastic start to the week.

[@antonSugar]

My favorite part of the weekend. Thanks for all you do!

[@karrackhalcyon8826]

Thank you Perun, exceptional work and quality as always. We appreciate your dedication

[@leoniewilliamson2811]

Brilliant show, thank you for explaining these very difficult circumstances to us ordinary people. ❤❤❤

[@grfrjiglstan]

I’d like to see a video on “trump cards” - big red buttons Russia can still push to make things a lot more difficult for Ukraine, but also themselves. After blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam, failing to blow up the nuclear power plant, and pulling out of the grain deal for realsies, I can’t help but think they might be running out.

[@nvelsen1975]

Well, one scenario is Belarus is colonised more thoroughly and combined with Wagner to become a northern front against Ukraine, full of disposable people who can be sent to their deaths because they're not Russians anyway, or they're supposed 'traitor mercenaries'. The Belarus army is a joke and not a particularly funny one either, but if they begin conscripting and training (with Wagner help) you can easily field 50K conscripts in 3-6 months from now. I suppose they could also commit suicide by using WMDs, but the consequences of that would be severe to Russia-ending in nature. People didn't mind when Russia gassed a bunch of Arab villagers in Syria, but dropping poison gas on Kiyv will elicit a much more fierce response. Their worst-case scenario would probably be a naval blockade of Russia, or their Indian bootlickers bowing out.

[@diametheuslambda]

​@@nvelsen1975Arming the Belarusian population almost certainly leads to them overthrowing their own government. They seem a lot more politicised and a lot less fatalistic than, say, the Russian population.

[@matteocesa9017]

The way I see it they have very few options left: -the less likely is a nuclear strike on kiyv. Big gamble, probably nato would intervene directly, but there is a chance ukraine would surrender. -Securing china's support somehow, also not very likely considering china has its own problems, strong economic ties with the west and very little to gain from helping russia to that degree. -putting pressure on energy exporting countries and try to choke off europe, hard to do considering the USA is one of them and europe has some indigenous production, but potentially could force the EU to negotiate. -dial up the info war, in particular in the US, bribe a few politicians and influence public opinion to make them pull the plug on support for ukraine. This has likely been happening the whole time, the fact russia adopted "questionable" military strategies sabotages somewhat their effort, but if successful it would change things a lot. -the last trump card is complete transition to a war economy and mass mobilization, probably the most likely, effective and safe option, still potentially dangerous for the regime though

[@nvelsen1975]

@@diametheuslambda It would eventually lead to overthrowing Lukashenko yes, but that's not Putin's problem, which is why he might use the Belarussians as cannon fodder.

[@doctordoggo8604]

I thought the dam was destroyed through neglect? IE the Russian soldiers capturing it and then not knowing how to maintain it(leaving the gates closed and building up water, causing a collapse).

[@MMMMMY1SS]

Hey Perun! Love the video, very informative and refreshing to see more information on the naval aspect of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Have you considered perhaps posting the manuscripts of these long-form video as articles? I am a large fan of your content and enjoy watching, but at times I prefer having text-based information to look back onto and find information I want to highlight. This would be incredibly appreciated, I hope you take it into consideration, if it's not too much of a large workload for you. Best Regards, Mildred

[@lisinsignage]

Excellent as usual. Thanks for taking an explicit personal position on this topic while keeping the whole video as factual as possible.

[@EvoV1]

Thanks so much for the video commentaries that you have put out over the past year. It has been very insightful and informative, and it makes for a great listening partner while drawing.

[@chrish1645]

Absolutely top notch video. All of your videos are great, but this one was especially interesting. Loved hearing the break down of the different options available to the various combatants and what they might mean.

[@honjohorikoshi]

As always I appreciate your thorough research and updates on what is going on in both Ukraine and other major countries. Your videos are important and helpful so I thank you again for your continued work on the channel. Also I must always mention that your jokes in the videos are phenomenal.

[@fragmentofself]

If there is one thing about this war that I can't help but chuckle at is how not only is Ukraine holding their own like champs, but they seem to go out of their way to actively troll Russia whenever they get the chance. U gotta love it

[@NathansHVAC]

Yep. War in the age of social media.

[@theecat3689]

The loss of the grain deal honestly depresses me. I work in an agricultural country and have family and friends in the agricultural sector. We have been projecting food shortage due to low production due to increased weather problems and decrease in interest in agri by new generations. The additional stress on food supply is going to choke us. I am earning good money but it's fast getting runover by inflation. This salary 1 yr ago would have been godly. Now it's just enough. I'm fucking depressed.

[@SpringIsBACK]

Try being retired (or mostly so) and essentially on a fixed income... 😞

[@theecat3689]

@@SpringIsBACK My parents' retirement income was projected to be enough for them to live on but now the family is talking about how much we can contribute from our salaries to keep our parents comfortable... depressing as hell. I really cannot see how I could even plan on living to old age in this economy 😔 Good luck to us.

[@teresabenson3385]

I would think that food shortages work to your advantage, as prices for your product will go up. Unless you are experiencing a serious decline in yield as well.

[@theecat3689]

@@teresabenson3385 Sadly, we are. Prolonged droughts followed by super typhoons cause a significant decline in yield and consistency. This is on top of inflating costs of operation so yeah. Profit margins are either slim or negative even with price increases to match market prices. It's depressing. 🥲

[@galaxymini172]

​@@teresabenson3385I think he indicated that he earned a salary, so not an owner of a farm I guess.

[@AirForceJuan747]

Thanks! I was waiting for this to drop so I have something to listen to while I do my chores. My gf was getting impatient.

[@Am_Yeff]

Your name is great

[@martindice5424]

Another insightful vid mate. Keep it up. 👍👍

[@wespeakforthetrees]

Great job mate. Thanks for all your hard work.

[@Ninque]

This is perfect...I just listened to the previous episode (again) about the black sea fleet. ❤

[@disbeafakename167]

Youre doing great man, keep up the great work! Blankets or studio, we're not here for the production quality, but the excellent analysis.

[@fat_biker]

If the Russians start sinking vessels in the black sea, Ukraine should _definitely_ consider issuing letters of marque & retaliation world wide, permitting seizure of Russian flagged vessels on the high sea...

[@grahamstrouse1165]

@@cancermcaids7688I think at this point Ukraine can argue pretty persuasively that they’re not a successor state to Imperial Russia. 🙂

[@fat_biker]

@@cancermcaids7688 An interesting point of international law. But also, did not Russia abrogate the Treaty of 1856 at some point? Did that not technically include the bit about letters of marque etc? Did the Russian Empire ever issue letters of marque?

[@fat_biker]

@@cancermcaids7688 It will be interesting to see whether Russia sinks ships under other than Ukrainian flags in the Black Sea... that sort of lawlessness probably justifies much of what Ukraine might do in response...

[@Weak1987]

Perus videos are the only ones I have no problem watching thr whole lecture at one go.

[@TS-bj8my]

Another great show! Keep up the good work Perun!

[@max-imal8588]

Never was so early to a Perun video!

[@mathcamel]

Thank you for covering this and giving us all more context.

[@nickd2575]

Great video, Perun. Awesome insight as always. I look forward to your Turkey analysis in the near future.

[@sharonvangorder]

Thank you for such an informative presentation. I learned a great deal.

[@timecoot]

Again, informative and interesting. Thank you for providing your time to make this content.

[@arts2412]

Thank you Perun, listening to you is a great way to start the week

[@MrJugsstein]

I really enjoyed your analysis so much. A clear explanation of such a complercated set of factors and on going situations Thank you for your time and attention to us.