The Economy Is Weaker Than The Narrative Suggests | David Rosenberg

Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, shares his macroeconomic view of the economy and explains why he’s not throwing in the towel on his recession call.
Rosenberg highlights the importance of understanding the business cycle and the impact of interest rates. While many economists have thrown in the towel on their recession calls, Rosenberg remains in the recession camp, pointing out that the economy is weaker than the narrative suggests. He also emphasizes looking at the full picture, noting the divergences in various economic indicators.
Elsewhere, Rosenberg provides insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy and its implications for bond and equity markets. Rosenberg is bullish on bonds and explains how you could make a 20% total return in the 30-year Treasury.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction, welcome, macro picture
0:54 Economists throwing in the recession towel
2:55 State of the consumer
4:15 Fiscal stimulus
6:40 Bullish on bonds, sees equity-like returns
7:30 Recession call
10:30 Bifurcation and divergencies in the markets and economy
12:00 GDP and GDI
14:00 Growth in credit card usage, epic drawdown in personal savings
15:00 Employment
22:30 Fiscal policy likely to be a drag
24:30 Household balance sheets - auto loans and credit card delinquencies
26:30 GDP likely close to flat this year
28:30 Outlook for Federal Reserve rate policy, need to go to 2.5%
35:45 Yield curve, why you could make more than 20% total return in 30-year Treasury bond
38:20 Implications equity markets if Fed cuts rates
44:30 Stock market has become a bidding war
48:27 Equity risk premium
53:33 Bob Farrell's influence
57:44 Parting thoughts
#economy #recession #investing #podcast

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hey everyone! I hope you enjoy this conversation featuring David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research. Please join me in the comment section below. Also, viewers of The Julia La Roche Show can access a ✨free 30-day trial to Rosenberg Research at this link: hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trial ✨ Thank you so much for your support. 💙Julia

[@vfc1860]

He is the voice of reason and reality.

[@LeMAD22]

He's a useless hack. He's just predicting recessions every fucking year. He's your typical permabear who simply doesn't understand how anything works.

[@davidmckenzie4515]

I like her interview style she let's her guest talk without interrupting them.

[@kevinobrien9271]

You can’t interrupt Rosie once he gets rolling 😅

[@jeffreyzimel2546]

Have heard David numerous times. He’s a great listen. Knows his stuff! Thanks for getting him

[@993C2S]

Rosie is the best. Please invite him back as often as he is willing to come. Thank you.

[@fubarbrandon1345]

Thanks Julia...great guest and interview. Much appreciated.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Glad you enjoyed it!😊

[@williamblair2934]

As a gold guy, I can appreciate this honest “ techno peasant”.

[@RyanStronach]

Great interview! You actually sit back and listen to the person you're interviewing.

[@dave8212]

Thanks Julia - David is one of my favourites! 👍🏻💛

[@MrSteveCee]

Outstanding interview.

[@DrunkenXiGinPing]

Most of the talking heads just talk shit to get clients’ money. But this David guy talks sense ! Hats off to his wisdom. I enjoy his sights. Recession will come …. Because it will !

[@joeysocks5718]

Home run Julia! David is the best

[@abajaj1510]

Good interview as always, Julia

[@johnborrelli7944]

Great info, David

[@KM-kb8st]

Love him!

[@bdek68]

You are going to be right! 100%. Japan, Germany, UK, China even though they won’t declare it. Tick, tick, tick….

[@markphillips2648]

“ You always have to have a plan B” kept me alive more than once and what I instilled on my family and in my investments! Brilliant interview with a trusted soul !!!

[@biden-putin-stalin]

Rosenberg is brilliant. He really has the stats, and knows history. He is probably correct. However, the argument against his bet on lower bond yields is the supply of bonds that is coming in the market place. Trillions of supply, in excess of available investment funds, would normally result in higher bond yields. Time will tell. It is too bad that the path forward is not more clear. Gundlach, the smartest bond guy around, it looks like is not in the camp of low bond yields.

[@tenplus1025]

DR…the man!!

[@andrewsaporetti3614]

Great Interview Julia! 🙂 Thanks! Love this channel.

[@jacknaneek1681]

Never right Rosie. Awesome.

[@brunomanco7529]

Theres stats to suport everyones theories. Thats why i listen to permabears and permabulls, they are both correct

[@nights5956]

Great content. Thank you !

[@davidkim8133]

Amazing interview! Thank you for letting the guest speak so freely! This was the best summary explanation of the basic bond math!

[@ashanesubasinha8313]

Thanks Julia. David will be proven correct in 2024 ! Macro cycles never change, they may get stretched only.

[@minhhoang1192]

Great content! Thanks!

[@johnnychoi6967]

Hello. Julia. Anytimes am super to watching your show. Got a learned in acknowledgment liked a School. Thank you. Julia

[@romeo20maypole68]

I 😁enjoyed this conversation

[@bingwu8146]

Great interview! Dr. Rosenberg presented very insightful view on macro economy.

[@issenvan1050]

How about gold equities during the recession?

[@harryharry3193]

I am Floored by the depth of your guests You have now. you should be proud of yourself Julia.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you 😊

[@tb6031]

Great Information! Julia you’re such a good interviewer/Host.

[@Rurik8118]

Rosey ! Thank you for the share 🌹

[@paulinechernick2537]

Excellent interview! Very informative.

[@michaelstock9351]

A wonderful interview from a genius

[@davidcoard1978]

Did'nt David Woo say that 1/3 of the recent GDP Could be accounted for by the creation of U.S government bureaucray jobs.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hi @Davidcoard1978, I just had David Woo on the show: kzbin.info/www/bejne/aqqtYXlqabBsncksi=mo_4EveL6yWIa95t

[@mjbucar]

I always enjoy listening to David Rosenberg's realistic perspectives.

[@issenvan1050]

He called for deflation before 9.1% CPI. 😎

[@anthonyferris8912]

Yeah, I didn't plan for or expect a Covid pandemic either.

[@issenvan1050]

@@anthonyferris8912 How is this relevant? He didn’t say that before covid. In the meantime, Steve Hanke nailed 9% peak CPI 1.5 years in advance (it was 9.1%) while these mavens were calling for deflation & telling people to buy bonds (who must have lost 40% at least)! This guy is like a broken record, but his recession call is accurate.

[@fg-sz9ci]

Thanks for bring this people to the chanal

[@mackakiwinz4353]

Love David not only super smart but as a kiwi I find his voice so pleasant and easy to listen to. Great interview thank you both a wonderful experienced guest Julia and brilliant interaction.

[@andrewbronson7159]

Canadian.

[@financialm3771]

Anyone else having a great time in this "economy"?

[@deseosuho]

The base case is absolutely that we do have a recession. 5 out of 6 times the Fed has completed a rate hiking cycle since 1987, an official NBER recession has followed within 1-2 years. Yes, it's always possible that we're in the 1/6 world, but the signs that we are in that "no-landing" world have not shown themselves. Those signs would be 1) freight recovering and expanding again. 2) Manufacturing new orders and hours worked bottom and start growing again. 3) Sales of existing homes bottom and start expanding again. All of those signs are going in the wrong direction.

[@jorge1170xyz]

If you're talking about 95 being the exception...we had the internet, cellphones and home computers all coming into the economy at roughly the same time. Call me crazy but I don't think AI, which is definitely going to be "a thing" carries the same punch as the telecommunications trio of the 90's. We will knkw in the next 24 months I guess.

[@joechan8549]

Ai claims they can make babies, no need for human, do you believe that, you should buy Tulips and London bridge.@@jorge1170xyz

[@rcstout6475]

@59:12 I outlasted David; I still have a blackberry.

[@sugarman08]

Love David mentioned C.R.E and multifamily never mind about the great housing statement

[@issenvan1050]

He should define “convexity.”

[@tennessee1828]

Great questions....and one the best economist I've ever listened too. 😊

[@SkipDulcet]

Rosie=great guy ever!

[@JeffSavage-co9ps]

Good

[@pete7674]

Fascinating, thank you.

[@issenvan1050]

DiMartino-Booths says the same thing: no full-time job openings.

[@Doug-zl8nb]

Hang on for the ride

[@kenomstead986]

Keep TRUE David......love your updates......

[@maryzhao7700]

Excellent guest with comprehensive interpretation on current economic situation

[@edmundlively8137]

Consumption is leveraged but production is not leveraged. got it ! 😊

[@TK-en2hq]

There's always "full employment" if everyone who isn't employed is removed from the labor pool.

[@DeFi-Macrodosing]

Let's all get together and shout at the tape, for the third consecutive year!

[@wobblergong]

Auto-credit issues may as well be comparable to housing when so many people are living in their cars now. What's next? A tent-credit bubble? An 'Under the Bridge' pylon credit bubble?

[@WeekendsOutsideFL]

I’ve thought about the various spots that homeless people use to panhandle. Things like major intersections and freeway off-ramp endings, there is likely competition for these posts in some areas

[@vitalsigns6403]

Dave has been calling for deflation and recession forever. Meanwhile S&P at all time high, home comp prices going back UP in most markets, free $ everywhere, dont have to pay your debt, unemployment low, deficit spending surging, ….no deflation, no crash, so far no recession and inflation very sticky high

[@ashtonarmstrong3082]

But we’re more than restrictive enough, didn’t you see the inflation numbers 🤣🤡

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@jaykraft9523]

Rosenberg's been saying the economy is weaker than people think for the last 25 years, has called 25 out of the last 2 recessions

[@bdek68]

You are clueless!! Go back to your video game

[@georgeholloway3981]

Which ETF represents the 30 year bond?

[@fsaldan1]

Not exactly the 30-year bond, but TLT invests in long duration Treasurys.

[@adriansmith7604]

Japan entered recess this week

[@stewart4711]

Julia reminds me of someone I once knew very sad we cant go for a walk sit in the sunshine eat barbeque chicken

[@adriansmith7604]

Japan entered recession this week

[@skillz4life360]

I think what people miss the most is massively deflationary tech! Corporations have admitted to laying off workers that are being replaced by ai. Then you have them going somewhere else and getting pt work. It's the technology

[@mktwatcher]

Love Rosie's Take. Hang in there Rosie. You sounded a little warn down buy the No Landing Cheerleaders. Just keep watching the day. We see Companies Laying Off Employees almost everyday now. The Financial Pundits are talking about a Productivity Surge. Well, yeah. When you cut workers and maintain the same output you just boosted your Productivity.

[@Justtryingtosurvive83]

Just a thought from an average layman. They also didn’t double the money supply back then.

[@hectorrodriguez2686]

Debt and defaults are the ultimate indicators. Overproduction and price collapse come next. The scarcity of cash is third. When all this happens then we will have a proper recession.

[@davidcolletti7136]

i thionk inflation is still gonna stay for awhile...Were still spending..food and energy will keep it high..even though ..job losses may decline...hard to put the jenie back in the bottle when you Printed trillions and borrow costs were CHEAP ..for over a decade..i remember when a mortage intrest on a home in the 80s and 90s were north of 9%..and that was considered GOOD..!!

[@jameswilke]

11:17 Rosenberg

[@freeroamer9146]

Buying into equities when they're at all time highs (led to a great degree by the "magnificent seven"), only makes my 5.4% t-bills look that much better! 😐

[@Yetified_Mayhem]

I'm sorry if I sound rude, but tiger teeth makes for the most gorgeous smile possible! I do think it helps with the great interviews. Love watching the channel grow!

[@deevee4994]

Lyn Alden's " Fiscal Dominance " theory is starting to seep into the concensus.

[@Anicetus56]

Yogi-ism ....... "We made to many wrong mistakes"😁 " A nickel isn't worth a dime anymore"

[@gabrielw7773]

What happens if the dollar breaks down and bond yields break down like what has been going on for the last 15 years? I am going to bet that the stock market goes up. There is no winter for a team that plays in a dome David. That dome can hold a lot of people too.

[@Severus39]

This show is so relaxing, you're the best Julia.

[@scrambaba]

Bonds have more fun!

[@Infinite_P]

My banker estimates 2 cuts.

[@birsha3986]

Rosie talks a lot. It would be more impactful if he showed some charts and graph.

[@bpb5541]

We are getting ready to have a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis. Everything is going to go down, the stock market, gold, silver, BTC, housing prices, car prices .... all of it. The only thing that will most likely do well is commodities, and the middle to long end treasuries. I am saying that middle to long end treasury yields are going to go up not down. If that is true than TLT price is going to go down not up. I think most people are confused with bonds and why and how they work and what actually causes price appreciation. Usually during a recession yeilds drop. Why? The government needs to drop the front end (fed funds rate) to stimulate. Usually the middle and long end rates follow. I don't think this will happen this time. Reason. The debt level it too high. If the government is cutting and doing QE they will need more money. This will cause the debt levels to go much higher. During every recession the government's balance sheet goes up not down. At some point folks (bond traders) are going to reject lower yields to take on this added risk of the US government defaulting or the dollar's purchasing power crashing. This will cause middle to long end bond auction failures. If the government wants to take on more debt they are go to have to attract folks with a higher yield. We saw this in the 70's and 80s and the debt then was no where near where it is now. WE also saw this when the bond vigilanties came out in Oct 2023. We have broken out of the 40 year downtrend in the 10 year yield. Which means we go up for the next 40 years not down. This is what is going to catch almost everyone off sides. Folks think the FED has power over the bond market. This is false. The FED follows the bond market. To be specific the FED follows the 2 year yield. THEY HAVE NO control over the middle to long end of the curve. Bond traders have that power... even if the FED would like you to think they do. The best thing really would to be to just get rid of the FED... They just screw things up. Real capitalism lets market decide price ... America hasn't been capitalistic since 1913. We have been socialist under the guise of capatialism. Last thing capitalism ALWAYS turns into socialism ALWAYS. Why? Class inequity. I wish it were not so but we can't change human behavior and more specifically human corruption, deceit, and the unbelievable willingness to steal from others.

[@christinahames90]

There is a lot more on the sick

[@sugarman08]

You are not going to eat your words. All I hear is the voice of REALITY its coming no matter how much you close your eyes😂

[@issenvan1050]

BTFD!

[@issenvan1050]

Perma-bond-bull

[@brianponcelet3529]

Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg has little doubt growth will turn negative in 2019 as the stock market flounders. "We're going into a recession," the firm's chief economist and strategist said Wednesday on CNBC's " Trading Nation ." "I think it will be this coming year." Every year it’s a new prediction.

[@johndunham9979]

Jobs are up because workerw were redefined

[@klmn2000]

Rosenberg is excellent. This is Julia's best interviewee of the last 12 months - perhaps longer. He really knows his stuff and backs up what he says while conveying it in a balanced way.

[@johndunham9979]

Thank you. Gdp is nonsense. Spending is not production. Gdp should measure production

[@osamahalsudais1263]

Just shout up, i would love to have another interview if there is no recession, i hate when someone claims to know the future. Please upgrade your interviews with your guests

[@fillmorehillmore8239]

ZIRP is inevitable. Look at the 30 year trend.

[@kimpinkham5804]

Canada 2015 debt 500,billion Canada 2024 debt 1.2 trillion good job deputy dawg

[@qake2021]

👍👍👍🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦➕️👏👏👏✌️

[@beamerM5]

Dave, being early is being wrong. A recession will eventually come, but it will not make you right.

[@jhull5870]

David's narrative on the economy has been so wrong for a very long time. Take what he says with caution.

[@prolific1518]

Global recession has already started. US has been in recession since October.

[@erniekeller1093]

How brave it is to say there will be a recession Some Day! Even braver is to contrast this with a narrative that says it won't, even if no one says it. Also, something something "mainstream". 😃

[@JorgeOrpinel]

David is starting to sound like Harry Dent. Clinging on...

[@jasongrig]

the same again and again. Isn't he tired of being proven wrong?

[@tomyi4177]

This guys dead wrong for so long

[@brianborse3555]

Rosie claims to be a contrarian but expects the bond market to respond to a recession "just like it always has" 🤔🖨