The End of the UK Property Market?

[@MattBrighton]

I have a property newsletter on my site www.propertyinvesting.io - feel free to join!

[@thesaltbaron2237]

Matt have you read “the great demographic reversal” by charles goodhart? He predicts that aging demographics will cause increased wage inflation & cause a secular rise in interest rates.

[@euniceyee9217]

Hi Matt, thank you for posting great content as well. This link doesn't work for me. Would there be another link to try?

[@ao4514]

@@euniceyee9217 The link doesn't work!

[@darrynmillward162]

Why does nobody talk about the money printing that happened during lockdown? That’s the real reason for inflation.

[@claudermiller]

Didn't you listen? He said the same cycle occurred over 200 years.

[@easytoassemble54321]

It wasn't the money printing, but where that money ended up. Check out Gary Stevenson's videos on this

[@stansheppard8929]

Everybody talks about it.

[@jamesworrall5717]

Everyone talks about it or talked about it (kinda old news now). It just depends on who you listen to.

[@spivvo]

It started in 2008 not 2021. QE.

[@Mogamishu]

In the UK if something is not taxable, it is probably illegal.

[@jockster5525]

Or came here in a boat from France

[@lindaseidel8121]

@@jockster5525 Just curious why don't you like immigrants?

[@233kosta]

Anyone who calls this country "capitalist" is completely deluded

[@potato1084]

@@233kosta It still is though? 😂 The UK *loves* free market capitalism. If you’re ordinary working class you suffer but if you’re lucky enough to stay on benefits and have shelter taken care of (quite rare nowadays) OR if you’re a multi millionaire you’re fine.

[@233kosta]

@@potato1084 How is that even remotely close to a *free* market?

[@darnellcapriccioso]

Well I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

[@tatianastarcic]

There is no greater freedom than handing back the key to a airbnb apartment knowing someone else has to maintain it. If you enjoy renovating and decorating then perhaps home ownership is for you. For me, property is another way we get tied down and outside of exceptional cases I'd rather invest in stocks to get exposure to real estate and other investment opportunities.

[@maiadazz]

@@tatianastarcic You are right! I diversified my 450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above 750k in net profit within 2 years across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.

[@richardhudson1243]

@@maiadazz Mind if I ask you to recommend how to reach this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out unlike the rest of us.

[@maiadazz]

@@richardhudson1243 I have stayed away from all of the issues that the erratic market presents. Today, reading, research, patience, and seeking guidance when necessary are the greatest ways to break into the market. I merely copy Nicole Joi Anderson, a CFA, whose actions I witnessed on Bloomberg Business News because I am unable to handle my portfolio owing to the nature of my profession. Ever since, everything has been easy.I recommend researching her credentials further.

[@stjepanhauser7595]

"From my perspective, this highlights the importance of having a competitive advantage as investors. Merely mirroring the market strategies of others is insufficient in achieving optimal results. I am currently grappling with the decision to invest in the current market, as it presents both uncertainty and opportunity. Could you share your insights on this matter?

[@doomplatoon3393]

The relentless demand for houses will keep this market up

[@marcingaladyk]

Good luck.

[@WtfTravellingJim]

Wages can't keep track, so it will have to crash

[@giantorres3352]

They said that in Spain 2008. Good luck.

[@SuzJim99]

Thank you, as a first time buyer we were truly shafted in the past 2 years, to the point where we had to pull out of 2 houses and we are still renting. However, we are looking strong for 24/25 if the charts hold up. Thanks for thee update and info on the 18 year cycle! Very interesting and I'll be doing further reading!

[@ollyole4560]

I'm in the same boat as you, it great to see houses stuck on the market and constant reductions in their price. Hopefully soon, they will be back within my budget and I can finally get on the housing ladder after 4 years of trying!

[@chrishart8548]

Don't be surprised if the people printing all the money and causing all this use the fake money to buy all the houses up when the time is write. I would love to see house prices drop to really low levels. I actually think owning a house is a burden. All the maintenance and responsibilities has put me off.

[@jameswilkinson150]

I’m an agent in the SE and we are seeing BIG drops in house prices however the same thing isn’t applicable to apartments which are largely holding their value. When it comes to houses though, that’s a different matter, we are projecting a drop in value of around 30% particularly for more expensive homes (those over 800k typically).

[@Big-Timbo]

As a first time homeowner, I would love the housing market to crash so all my family and friends would have the same oppertunities as me

[@Catthepunk]

This.

[@richardstokes2209]

If it crashes how would you buy a house unless you are a cash buyer the bank are not going to lend you any money to buy a house if the house market has crashed

[@Big-Timbo]

@@richardstokes2209 i own my house outright

[@zaraboycj]

In a crash everyone is affected sooner or later. The reason a crash happens is due to less people affording to buy and those who already bought a house end up loosing their jobs which leads to not being able to pay the mortgage so either them or the bank will try to sell the property. In that sort of environment only a few privileged are able to manage to buy a house. Although how things go many property firms have so much cash that individuals have nearly zero chance to secure a home. The only solution I can see to this problem is to limit the number of properties a company or individual can own. Or after a certain number of properties implement a higher taxation making sure that the profit it’s minimal. It’s not normal to have corporations owning thousands of houses and apartments which are empty. Those should be taxed even higher if nobody is living in them. The past decade everywhere I see luxury homes being built just to stay empty cos nobody can afford it. Why can they not build houses less luxurious which anyone who works hard can afford. I’m not a socialist but everything has a limit.

[@stegra5960]

The BoE has its hands tied somewhat on interest rates. If the Fed keep rates up then a drop in the UK will see currency investment move to the US leading to a fall in GBP and higher inflation. US unemployment figures released yesterday show a 53 year low meaning more buyers for a finite amount of goods and services. The Fed are likely to anticipate that this will lead to higher inflation and maintain or increase interest rates accordingly.

[@david99m]

The Rightmove data only includes the average asking prices of new properties coming to the market and not new instructions. This doesn't therefore include the 40% of new instructions that are reductions. Why wouldn't Rightmove include all those 5-15% reductions in their average prices I wonder? They also love to quote the year on year growth as it's the only positive metric that's left. Come next month that will also probably go negative too, so no doubt they will start quoting decade on decade growth and spin the fact that although your property has lost 20% in a year you are still 30% up overall compared to 2013 🤣

[@lucy8265]

Really happy I found this channel- I don't really understand the property market, so when I finally scraped together my deposit savings goal after three years in October 2022 I was miserable because I then realised I would need at least double my current savings to afford something in my area. I'm going to keep saving and keep learning so that when I do get the opportunity, I'll be ready!

[@conormckennaUK]

The old saying “Good things come to those who wait” is very true when it comes to property. Keep at it!

[@jmc6687]

the longer you wait the more expensive it becomes , it always was this way

[@niallmurray9725]

I hear you mate, I’m the same boat too!

[@ashleybryant305]

I’m in the same boat! Surrey prices are insane

[@bfcfan2739]

@@jmc6687not always

[@i-hsiuchiang8569]

This is the time when you target properties that are experiencing FOMO. If you know how to negotiate well, you can easily get properties below market values lol

[@Jaaammmbbbooo]

I wonder if area has played a factor with prices too. I live in Portsmouth which is crammed in, no space for more houses. If my house is good condition in a good area with good schools etc, surely, my house price won't fall as much as other areas? Does supply and demand still count?

[@honestcommenter8424]

I once commented on "Moving home with Charlie" channel about the increase in asking price on Rightmove. I think it is because of more expensive houses being listed on Rightmove than cheap houses, which is because of owners of expensive houses are starting to struggle to pay the monthly payment on their big mortgages as a result of the increase in interest rates, so this increase actually is an indication of the crash not the other way around.

[@cryptoexperience4446]

I agree somewhere where me and my partner want to move to there’s plenty of houses on the market for £400k and higher yet we want to downsize and there is nothing at £200k/£250k yet there was 2 years ago so I believe a lot of people are in trouble because they overstretched themselves 😮

[@honestcommenter8424]

@@cryptoexperience4446 exactly, thanks for confirming

[@ady6837]

True!

[@jimmydavis7587]

rm only include initial asking prices and ignore reductions so their results are skewed to prop up the appearance of high prices

[@lazyhazy7]

Supply and demand is definitely a big factor for inflation, but the QE from the US central banks is the leading cause. The US printed $3.3 trillion during 2020. That’s 1/5th of all dollars in circulation. The global reserve currency has been diluted year after year and we are all paying the price.

[@FilmBooth]

Cheers Matt, very helpful

[@garyw.1643]

I'm not too sure about the interest and capital figures you gave as an example. As far as I know more interest is paid in the first years. Something like 90% interest and 10% capital payments per month. And it decreases progressively over the years.

[@SalsaKingoftheApes]

Before the coronavirus madness, the 18 year property market predicted a winners curse from 2024 to 2026. Maybe timings have changed as a result of the massive QE stimulus during the covid pandemic. However I’m sitting on my deposit until the current uncertainty is over. At the moment economies seem quite robust in the US and UK, however should that change (with rising unemployment) then we could be facing a painful few years in the house market; something the UK actually needs.

[@MrGlobalcarrot]

Great video as per! The only bit I’d say you missed in interest rates/inflation was that the Bank of England have stated that interest will go up to 4.5% and won’t go down to 3.25% till 2026.

[@billcarson9565]

never going back down, you will own nothing and be happy!

[@jockster5525]

@@billcarson9565 cook my sock you clown

[@arakassabian5879]

@@billcarson9565 Yes, The Davos billionaires, sorry, I meant the Davos Nuvo-Communists, Capitalist in disguise

[@billcarson9565]

@@jockster5525 you can sack my cook and hold my calls.

[@billcarson9565]

@@arakassabian5879 Yeh, its rolling in fast, and most people are still asleep.

[@chrishusband3539]

In essence the best strategy right now is offer at least 10% below the asking price if your buying a house. Or wait for the market to correct itself!

[@moarif9139]

Question, when prices of everything go up (food, services) when everything settles down, do those same prices stay the same? i'm noticing shop/food/fast food prices have increased everywhere. When the economy stablises, do these prices stay the same?

[@jamiekenleyuk]

Yes in a nutshell

[@moarif9139]

@Jamie Kenley that's terrible not to mention somewhat of a rip-off 😢 such things need to be regulated/monitored. I'm not a finance guy but always wondered this.

[@kubhlaikhan2015]

How much SHOULD a house cost? When you buy most other products, you are mainly paying for the manufacturing cost, that makes sense. But much of Britain's housing stock is 100 years old. The building cost has been repaid dozens of times over, so how much should it cost - surely just enough to cover the maintenance work done on it? 50 years ago this was often the case, you could buy some properties for as little as £2000. The same USED to be true in our rental sector - most owners with a spare house just wanted an income to cover the property's upkeep. Houses were kept mostly as a nest-egg, a good way to save capital, not as a means to enslave the tenants and live off their backs. Historically, the current hugely-inflated property market is not a normal state of affairs - we are being shafted by prices that are not set by "the property market" at all - they are set by the financial markets. Property has been inflated by the inflow of vast amounts of property investment capital, a lot of it with dodgy origins abroad, and the "owners: concealed by layers of anonymity by London investment agencies and pseudo-estate agents like Countrywide. The truth is, it is a global money laundering operation. If we weren't paying thousands of pounds a year to these crooks where would that money go? We would spend it on local goods and services - boosting the economy. We would be able to afford children instead of becoming a nation of old age pensioners. The property market is THE reason for the destruction of this country and western civilisation in general. That's how wicked this is.

[@Ivor60]

One thing people get mix on is your house goes up but the better house goes up as well so high prices don't help you climb to a better house in fact it makes it more difficult as any money you save don't goes as far now your house drop in price so does the better more expensive house and your savings money then goes further and it less expensive to move up to a better house.

[@Scott-melker]

✍🏻Tʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴡᴀᴛᴄʜɪɴɢ Sᴇɴᴅ ᴀ ᴍᴇssᴀɢᴇ ✙𝟰𝟰𝟳𝟰𝟰𝟮𝟲𝟭𝟳𝟵𝟴𝟲📈📈.

[@stevensimms7014]

15-20 year cycles are correct but I will say that it ignores two fundamental mitigants: (1) 3 million more buyers in the market vs 2008 with poor availability of housing stock, and, (2) the cultural aspirations of UK residents wanting to own their own home where other economies quite happily rent for life. This creates an incredibly resilient market, but is dependent on real wage growth (very high at present) and inflation (also very high). The market will decrease but certainly not collapse.

[@helenbostock2350]

Great information about the house market. The problem is that borrowing in a resection is harder.

[@lluke18]

I bought a 110k house with 20% deposit on a 5 year fixed at 2% I’ve upped my payment extra 100 pretending my rates are more 4 years left

[@nikkion2140]

Smart move. Indeed, the loan has to be paid off eventually so extra payments allow you to finish off a few years ealier which is good.

[@ao4514]

Hi Matt, interesting content you got here! Where do you think is the cheapest place to buy a house outside of London (within commuting distance ?

[@billybobhouse9559]

Swindon.

[@GF-hu2gq]

Great video/insight. Thank you. 👍🏻

[@garychurchill8685]

Well where I am on the South Coast prices that dropped around 5% are now all sold. The ones still asking for the initial price are slowing being bought too. No slow down in the south, maybe different elsewhere

[@robertdavies9957]

I've been renting in London for 10+ years, am planning on buying a property in Zone 4 for 15k under the asking price and living there for ~5-10 years on a tracker mortgage. Considering that rents are also going in lock-step with the BOE base rate (due to Landlords semi-understandably passing on said cost) paired with local historical data, it still looks to me that the best time to buy for first-time buyers is always now.. as long as you don't have an insanely small amount of equity or you live in a region of the UK that's seen a crazy surge in prices which is begging for a bust

[@SyKot]

40k how much % was that? And would low equity be? We are thinking of going 85LTV

[@Scott-melker]

✍🏻Tʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴡᴀᴛᴄʜɪɴɢ Sᴇɴᴅ ᴀ ᴍᴇssᴀɢᴇ ✙𝟰𝟰𝟳𝟰𝟰𝟮𝟲𝟭𝟳𝟵𝟴𝟲📈📈.

[@robertdavies9957]

@@sparkymmilarky if interested mine is a 3-bed flat in Beckenham with an offer accepted of 435k (down from 450k), 45k deposit, 390k mortgage (~89.5 LTV) and its literally next door to my current rental; a major contributing factor to my purchase. P. S. By "insanely small amount of equity" I was more thinking of folks unfortunate enough to be left with the only recourse of choosing a 95% LTV, potentially with a help to buy loan on top..

[@robertdavies9957]

@@sparkymmilarky that was my thinking

[@potato1084]

Rent is such a waste tbh but the only way you can get a property in London is living with parents.

[@quavor1]

Surely there’s no way interest rates will go below 4% this year, the base rate has hit 4% and is probably gonna finish the year at 4.5%

[@richlee509]

Some rates are already below 4 percent dyor

[@stanleyfamUK]

Hi great video, again! I purchased my first home in the late 80’s and since then have bought and sold in peaks and troughs, never ever being fortunate enough to get the timing perfect BUT I have also ensured I had a 20% min deposit. Also, when I once sold in a huge drop in value, the property I purchased had also dropped enormously, in a sense it was all relative, so I have never been to concerned provided I was buying a place I liked, not for investment - does that makes sense?

[@ssuwandi3240]

Yes. Liverpool Liver Bird ex UNESCO

[@johnristheanswer]

Correct. People forget if your house goes down , there's a good chance the one you buy has also depreciated. Buy a home, not a house.

[@matthewhunty]

Nice video. House prices are a series of micro markets. You only care about yours market. Last year over the whole year January to January house prices went up 7%. I know in the last few months they have gone down by about 5% but they where up over 13%. So what’s going to happen this year. In my opinion we are going to be up down about 10% over the year. I’m working this out because every time interest rates changed by 1% houses go up or down by 10%. Interest rates have gone up 3% so we should be looking at 30% drop. So why do I believe it’s only going to be 10%. Well inflation is running at least 10% interest rates are likely to go higher. Then interest rates Are likely to come down towards the end of the year. So I am guessing rate at 3%. That a 20% drop minus inflation at 10%. That’s a big drop still Less than selling your BTL and buying it again and in good times

[@harrylong2796]

On the inflation front - the reason it seems like a rat maze is because money is being sucked out of the economy by people who don't spend it. If your dentist needs a pay increase the owner of the business needs to charge more because he needs to pay his rent to someone who OWNS the property maybe this guy is at the top but likely he has mortgages on those properties which he pays to the people who are the actual problem

[@quadq6598]

Not happening yet in Liverpool, neighbor just last week had house on market 2 days multiple offers over £420K asking price & sold, 3 bed 1930's semi good area. I appreciate the market is turning down but just not seeing it yet here in the North West.

[@ty-wjc]

Could you provide the website(s) where you obtain your graphs from? Thanks

[@ChaosNebulai]

The cardboard box really adds to the scene, my favourite set piece by far

[@MattBrighton]

Joys of moving house. They’ll stay there for the next 12 months

[@detritiv0re144]

For too many people a cardboard box might be all they have to call home.

[@alm9707]

Awesome summary! Well done!

[@stevep9221]

House price inflation was 10% a year ago it is already down to 1.9. THAT IS A DROP OF 8.2%. Inflation is 10.2% but instead of going up by inflation they have gone down by 8.2%. A drop of 18.4% in real terms. Interest paid on mortgages has trebled. My sons £180,000 mortgage has gone up from £800 to £1500. His gas and electric £100 to £200. Houses have already crashed 18.4% and anyone who does not get a 30% discount is a fool because with inflation and further drops they are going down by a lot more - I would say a minimum of 30%. I have been waiting for this for 26 years as I lost over 30% in 1997 when I sold (I was serviceman, got divorced and got drafted - no buy to let mortgages then - and lost £10,000 cash deposit. Scaled up that would be someone with a £300,000 thousand pound house losing £100,000 today. Also, the ONS HPI is a conman's Ponzi charter. They only include less than 40% of sales (factcheck that and tell the truth) in the initial monthly figure and then only include the percentage of sales that do not affect it that much - less than 80% and leave out all sales they think will make the figures look bad. Also, They include a new sale of one new house in three different monthly figures . It is a con and part of the Ponzi fraudulent scheme that they have run to make the rich people richer.

[@Mark-ml3nv]

I got lucky and moved to Ireland where Ireland has a property curve that is out of phase with UK, so I came from a high price UK market to hit the end of the crash in Ireland and now that is reversed, prices are still going up here and UK is on the way down.

[@emmanouilachladiotis5272]

They say this crash is gonna last much much longer. When we say something not seen before ..is 18 month something possible? Heard somewhere. Cause they say not a recession is coming but a depression

[@GL-jo4bk]

Inflation is linked to increase in money supply. EU, UK and USA went on a mad money printing run. Has a huge effect on inflation

[@paulkeenan2691]

A good data logical presentation- including QE ( quanitative easing) and saving in physical gold would establish a mature lateral view.

[@oanalesnic79]

I am seeing properties going up again in London... Difficult to imagine a real crash here.

[@marcingaladyk]

Londonistan will house all Middle East elites soon enough.

[@kubamichal4598]

Does your credit score impact mortgages in any way ? foe example can i get a lower interest rate with a excellent credit score or no?

[@connorcameronjaggs]

Me and my partner just met with a mortgage broker. We both have "great" credit scores and apparently it makes no difference. IE in the bank wants you to fail 🤷

[@ashishanand4mech]

This can't be true now. Current situation is a classic scenario of a crisis where thieves (the rich who got richer in the last 3 years) will stock up while the poor will suffer property famine.

[@accadoza]

No chance too people many in the UK not enough property supply and demand👍

[@ThatAnnoyingStepdad]

Don't buy with a mortgage, your capital can be put to better use elsewhere. Grow your capital and compound then buy for cash later down the line

[@Ratgibbon]

I wonder how the minimum EPC rating for rentals becoming C in 2025 is going to affect the market? I'd imagine a lot of landlords (especially the rogue ones) will sell their properties, because it's just not going to make economical sense to upgrade their assets with the expected market conditions we'll have in the next few years. So this might become another downward pressure on house prices. But perhaps I'm just too hopeful, I'm planning on buying my first home in the near future. We'll see.

[@waqasahmed939]

I think I'm sadly in the "winners curse" however I've got a 5 year fixed and it isn't 95% LTV Japan is a market to constantly watch for. Every country eventually goes the same way as Japan. Unlimited growth is impossible I do kinda want my house for a long time however

[@ady6837]

Good luck!👍👍

[@DragonXDrei]

Just stick some Solar Panels and you get an A rating😜

[@battmarn]

It should be A

[@johnwhitcher4761]

People that have entered the property market in the last 5 years Will suffer most the intrest rise has not helped but supply & demand Will help protect the prices. People will stop moving for a while But prices are to high so a reasonable drop might help.

[@teaformulamaths]

How many hours a week does it take you to run your YT channel and do you mange other hobbies too?

[@TheMrgrafixable]

Great video Matt, but lets be real here. Landlords aren't doing anybody any favours.

[@Nobumblegumforyou]

Rightmove talking cr*p with massive conflict of interest. Sold prices coming down. 30-50% correction by mid 2024 and interest rates likely not coming down until 2024 due to inflation being sticky as per employment data since last week.

[@SoloSi2024]

With the capitol gains tax threshold going down, I'm now unlikely to sell. That could mean less property available to buy. My current low interest rate mortgage deal lasts for another 4 years, so I'll sit tight.

[@ianmatthews5566]

When you get a mortgage, the bank creates the money to lend you, it hasnt got that money until you request it!!!

[@stevep9221]

My figures in 1997. Bought for £37,500 in 1990 with a £7,500 deposit and sold for £22,750 in 1997. I had to sell due to divorce and being drafted in the Royal Marines. There were no buy to let mortgages then! The ponzi free cash for the rich kicked in later and the first buy to let mortgage in 1998. That was a £10,000 cash los to me and works out at over 30%. Scale that up to today = £375,000 , £75,000 deposit and a selling price of £227,500 and a loss of £100,000 cash. I am telling you mortgages are already 30% more expensive and that will get worst. Mortgage rates have not peaked. Legislation now states that if inflation is higher than 2% then they must put interest rates up - they experimented with quantitive easing instead and if they do that again civil unrest will break out. You want to sell now 30% off asking price or do not bother. Also HPI by ONS is a conman's charter. They manipulated that so if they pumped 200 billion into the economy they made sure house prices went up by 200 billion. They used to include 90% of sales but now 75% so that the houses that did not increase are not included. Government inquiry please.

[@garethedwards2883]

It would help the millions of people with mortgages if everyone would stop using the word "CRASH" as it is just a market correction due to higher interest rates due to inflation ( Some of the fault of the Liz Truss government).

[@Scott-melker]

✍🏻Tʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴡᴀᴛᴄʜɪɴɢ Sᴇɴᴅ ᴀ ᴍᴇssᴀɢᴇ ✙𝟰𝟰𝟳𝟰𝟰𝟮𝟲𝟭𝟳𝟵𝟴𝟲📈📈.

[@alanbone5512]

Very well explained, but, the bank of england must cut interest. Rates, like the bank of england did to counter inflation wages, etc in the mid 2006/20010, otherwise house price drop will continue, and savings will dwindle, so another big crash coming.

[@superk6487]

It’s only sellers that lose in a downturn! The buyers always pay the same or should I say it’s better to buy now. You will always pay the same monthly amount because that’s your budget for the mortgage ie all that changes is who’s pocket it goes into..The Bank of England or the seller.Right now the house price needs to come down to meet the extra interest..This means you will be better off in say 3 years when there’s cheaper money available..If there’s cheap money available then you pay more to the seller..So it’s actually better to buy in a down turn as long as you wait for sellers to be realistic with their prices.. The sellers and agents will have no choice but to adjust expectations if people make appropriate bids..ie don’t over pay

[@lijie2511]

I’ve been viewing houses for about 2 months, good houses went fast, the houses need work go very slow. That’s the extreme. A house with ground instability (subsidence), radon issues just got sold for 450k in an auction this morning, 3 weeks completion, 3% additional agency fee etc. I am also not sure if it is the agencies’s manipulation, some houses appeared sold came to the market quickly again.

[@SuperKiller374]

DONT FORGOT - wef "you will own nothing and be happy"

[@opentrail]

Thanks for the report. Not really related to the 18-year cycle, more to do with the impact of war and going from global manufacturing back to local as best we can. I don't believe inflation will come down as quickly as predicted. Conversely increasing interest rates will have no effect so I think we have reached the ceiling. The 10% CPI isn't a true reflection - just look around. Builder projects, particularly materials alone, have doubled and trebled. Supply is restricted further increasing prices. A lot of German companies are moving to countries where they can source raw materials and energy more easily, for example BASF, and this all adds up to further price increases. It's an escalating war due to a lack of decision in the West to engage, which will send commodity and energy prices higher. Doesn't leave Europe and the UK in a good position at all. If anything would be better to invest in BRICS+ related countries, currencies and stocks unless Nato finally decides to cripple Russia, think Oil and Gas, and send a clear message to China. If hypersonic missiles were any use they could have already mounted a surprise attack rather than just threaten to use them. So yes I think house prices will be subdued when people understand and when GDP diminishes.

[@tonyreah9805]

First time buyers, more than others, face a bigger oblm than just higher interest. Inflaion affects the lenders "stress test" which assesses affordability. Mortgage offers have been reduced by 30%. So he cannot offer more than hei lender will advance when they need a 90% LTV.

[@tonyreah9805]

Don't have WhatsApp. An example though. My daughter was offered £97000 mortgage offer last July 10 Yr fixed at about 2% by Nationwide, About 50% LTV. Now it's £59000 at 5% 10 Yr fixed. A £38000 reduction. Most of that S due to the "stress test".

[@babyfreezer]

literally any timeline from the last 10 years can turn into that graph if you just change the numbers

[@jaseperi]

excellent video, very informative and put straight forward and simple, thanks 👊

[@AlamalwebTV]

I'm a first time buyer , hopefully I can find anything reasonable 😅.by following your video I think it would be better to wait a little bit more ! Thanks for sharing.

[@MA89.]

Another great assessment Matt. All makes a lot of sense. Im holding fire 12 months before going up the ladder I think.

[@MA89.]

@Gareth Mathew yes, how did you know?

[@mabrukreza5456]

For house price to come down you need to look to few factors First you need land to build on second you need planning rules to ease up third material price to come down fourth you need labour price to drop fifth you needs skilled labour's In addition rent going crazy just deluded people believe the house price will drop

[@stevefaust3532]

I've been tracking this one particular house which has been on the market since October 2022, changed estate agents twice, no offers, not sold. How cheeky does one get with an offer?

[@mundokabaso9240]

As low as you want; the worst that can happen is they say no, then you can up your offer. Don't be nervous. Just go for it. Good luck!

[@cockpiss9260]

No such thing as a cheeky offer. Not all buyers are equal so outline your strengths such as mortgage/cash in place, flexibility of purchase date. Have the seller check their contract with the agent. Can they cut them out and you make them an offer directly thus they avoid commission fees?

[@MattBrighton]

Agree with the above comments. I wouldn’t call it a cheeky offer if it’s a fair market price. They might have put up a cheeky asking price 😉

[@naila249]

Indeed the word “interest” is very interesting 🧐

[@anarchodandyist]

Great video Matt. Really appreciate it as a soon to be 1st time buyer. Still can’t make me feel sorry for landlords tho 😂

[@chrishart8548]

I've paid almost £180,000 to landlords in rent over the last 15 years how could I possibly feel sorry for them.

[@JohnSmith-ei2pz]

Buying a house is a 25 year journey, do not be so alarmist!

[@deanwhittle1301]

my council house is worth 130k ish right to buy 50500 but i had bad credit to buy house so i am building credit score up for few months or so then trying again with around 12k ish deposit

[@The_Unintelligent_Speculator]

You can buy a castle near me with the current average house price. Crezy.

[@AlexSavage]

Great video Matt! Keep em coming..

[@MattBrighton]

More to come!

[@jamest5149]

If this happens, it won’t be as bad or long as previous ‘cycles’, housing stock availability from the lack of building new stock has got worse year on year for decades, going back to late 40’s. It is so bad that there are always going to be people who want and can find away to buy so the price decrease will be small and short lived. This is made even worse by resent occurrence, lack of rental stock availability and high rental prices due to recent tax and legal changes for landlords and mortgage buy to let availability and costs.

[@rhysshepherd9006]

Anther great video and good info for FTBs, thanks Matt!

[@MattBrighton]

Glad you enjoyed!

[@jimmydavis7587]

Great video Matt, do you think prices will lower in the North and Scotland where housing is cheaper?

[@Scott-melker]

✍🏻Tʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴡᴀᴛᴄʜɪɴɢ Sᴇɴᴅ ᴀ ᴍᴇssᴀɢᴇ ✙𝟰𝟰𝟳𝟰𝟰𝟮𝟲𝟭𝟳𝟵𝟴𝟲📈📈.

[@jobloggs7275]

If 2022 was the peak in the 18 year property prices are we then looking forward to falling property prices right upto 2026?

[@joshuaa3970]

Think I speak for all of Gen Z when I say bring it on!

[@spivvo]

But the home you want to live in. Falling house prices are great news for young people. We older folk can just carry on living in our homes as the prices decline. Rehoice young people.

[@Grandude77]

An overly simplistic chat on wage price inflation, clearly all the wage strikes RN are public sector and public sector wages are not inflationary. Increasing a nurses salary does not increase the price of free healthcare.

[@mustafamajid7794]

When you talk UK can you please put a disclaimer not Central and NW London

[@haydenharris3059]

Your not buying a house, the motgage lender is lending you a house until you have given them one and three quarters its value. It's a total rip off.

[@Evermoregreen23451]

The only way the property market will fail is an oversupply of property. We are not in that situation

[@hanvyj2]

Yey to me for buying at the peak of the market :(

[@claudermiller]

I'm 66 and I've seen booms and busts. I generally assume by time I'm hearing there's a boom we're nearing the end and that all the best deals have been made a few years earlier. The rich aren't going to share information with me until it's too late. 😆.

[@Bododolive]

How tf is it it not illegal to be paying £1200 on interest and £300 on your actual house a month? This is worse than mafia loansharking

[@enochpowelghost]

Charts mean nothing unless you look into causes, the graph is echoing interest rates, fall in interest rates means houses go up in price. This is nothing new really , there will be many now starting to be in negative equity especially in the expensive south. The north east will be ok ,due to the houses being far more affordable even if interest goes up further. Its all down to wages and interest rates. History is a good indicator of the future us baby boomers had a rough time when interest rates were like 16% so expect the same, also expect the 3-4 time wages to buy the house in this example using 16% benchmark. (3-4 times wages 1980,s standard). The above just shows you all how prices need to come down and i mean well down, to match the 3-4 times wages of both partners etc.

[@areyoutubed]

London property market would crash next year after Sadik would expand the ULEZ to the whole city. Not everyone would be ready to buy a new car. Maybe the landlord would buy a new car, but most of the tenants would just have to leave the house empty

[@glittersunflower9460]

I know the housing crash is happening not a fast rate houses have sold then gone back on the market. Its a bad to buy.

[@ebzZzZ]

and the affects of money printing on the value of it

[@williamhancox860]

The principal may be correct but the % loss is not sharp at all. An exaggerated view backed with poor statical evidence

[@DragonXDrei]

We've just entered into a transaction of £625k, that 10% is gonna be our deposit lost just like that in a few months. Wonder if we should wait... we tried to offer £615k but didn't go for it.

[@Scott-melker]

✍🏻Tʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴡᴀᴛᴄʜɪɴɢ Sᴇɴᴅ ᴀ ᴍᴇssᴀɢᴇ ✙𝟰𝟰𝟳𝟰𝟰𝟮𝟲𝟭𝟳𝟵𝟴𝟲📈📈.

[@midlifecarsis6420]

Depends on your situation. Are you a FTB? Do you plan to live in the house long term? Is it your perfect house or are you prepared to lose the sale?

[@jamiekenleyuk]

Happy we locked in 1.9% during pandemic until 2025. Overpayed too getting us down to £212 per month. Will now be considering more overpayment depending on the onterest rates that i believe will be higher than estimated. One tip for people is ignore all the doom and gloom, its always been the same since i originaly started saving to buy a home in 2010

[@janeyann8316]

I think there could be deflation starting some time this year. That means falling prices, falling inflation, falling interest rates, but with inflation falling faster than interest rates, and interest rates can't fall below zero, so real interest rates could skyrocket while nominal interest rates are falling. It does look like the powers that be are aware of the likelihood of deflation, though they seem to be underestimating the extent or not making this public knowledge. I think the general economy could recover faster than the housing market, a bit like after the 1987 stock market crash where the stock market recovered within the year but the housing market didn't recover until the mid 1990's, but on a larger fractal. New scientific and technological discoveries could fuel a recovering and thriving stock market, maybe. These are just guesses. I think falling interest rates, deflation falling faster than interest rates, falling house prices and initial stock market crash followed by a stock market recovery. Personally and for people I know, I hope rents fall.

[@paulamckie9004]

Good for me looking to buy later this year

[@fiziparadise7808]

Fact - whenever in any circumstances you find your dream house (not planning to move out) that you can afford grab it!!! Overall, media is informative, but it can sometime be biased! Live for nothing or die for something.

[@FlyingFun.]

You can afford it now but can you afford it if rates go higher or you lose your job? I was paying 17.5% on my mortgage back in the 90s.

[@iangillon6981]

Just Sold. Knew it was coming.