The founder mindset you need - (Bill Gates’s lesson on time frame)

If you want to make something truly big, you'll realize you have to be a short term pessimist, and long term optimist. This is the opposite of what most would-be founders actually have. And that, I think, is why most startups fail.
Most founders pursue ideas that are very short term, and they're wildly optimistic about these short term goals. And they ignore obvious things in front of them that should cause them to change course. But as Bill Gates says, they wildly overestimate what can be done in one year, and wildly underestimate what can be done in 10.
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00:00 Intro
00:48 Short term pessimism
02:43 Short term optimism
05:30 Long term optimism
Watch my video on the Stockdale Paradox if you haven't seen it yet: • See reality as it is f...
Music - "Always Forward" - Instrumental by Homage - • [Free] J Cole Storytel...
I’m Garry Tan, venture capitalist and cofounder at Initialized Capital. We were earliest investors in billion dollar startups like Coinbase and Instacart, and I’m a Forbes Midas List Top 100 venture capitalist in the world. We want these videos to be about helping people build world-class teams and startups that touch a billion people. Our startups have gone on to create more than $40 billion in market value so far, and Initialized has over $770M in assets under management. I’m doing my own one man KZbin channel with no staff or crew - we're going for raw and unfiltered, not perfect.
For 2020 I’m donating all proceeds from my KZbin channel (Ads + affiliate links) to Code2040 to fight for racial equality in tech. Join me in donating at code2040.org
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[@Cassiearan]

"I owe my success to having listened respectfully to the very best advice, and then going away and doing the exact opposite." -G.K.Chesterton "All progress takes place outside the comfort zone." -Michael John Bobak

[@gantsuk]

What I’ve learned so far working two years in a hyper growth startup: Laser focus and execute. The dynamic of short term pessimism and long term optimism will thrive after execution and seeing your results.

[@GarryTan]

Truth

[@CheapSoda1]

I'm on this ride right now, my wife always says, "why are you always so pessimistic, when you just had a win" and I answered "because I'm already dealing with the next potential problems" 😂 didn't even know this was a thing. Thanks man.

[@supersancho]

Another great vid Garry. With my prior startups I learned to recognize the "trough of sorrow". Co-founders usually leave, interns find another job, people get discouraged... by now I know this passes as long as you kept moving forward but I never knew there was a name for it. This makes it real that you are not the only one going through these things. Thanks! Hope one day to have you on my cap table or board.

[@TinaLeder]

This is exactly what I discovered after *YEARS* summarized in one short video, well done.👏👏👏

[@henrylay4098]

Couldn't agree more Garry, a lot of my learnings, reflecting on my 20s has been too optumistic in the early stages of the businesses/startup I have attempted and never went anywhere. but thank you for sharing, its given me a sense of validation with where i am going in my career in tech in my 30s.

[@GarryTan]

Best wishes Henry!

[@a12n]

Believe in winning 🏆 but keep your eye 👁 on the ball. ⚾️

[@GarryTan]

Truth

[@3TimHarley]

Love it. Pairs well with "impatient with actions... patient with results"

[@gambaweb]

I was an addict of yCommbinator’s videos and when I discovered your channel, it was like wow wow this is a better version of YC videos. Short and organized per subject

[@GarryTan]

Former YC partner over here! :-) Love YC

[@julianbeing]

I like how your videos flow. It's not boring, it's digestible. The thing I like the most is that your advice is actionable. I can apply the learnings right away.

[@GarryTan]

Thanks! That’s what I’m going for.

[@naterush5019]

Really interesting. This mindset distinction came up between me + my co-founders in a meeting earlier this week. One co-founder feels like we're not optimistic enough about our retention numbers for the month - especially since we started onboarding/charging folks at the start of the month, and a reasonable holiday slump. Specifically, the way I was talking about our retention was making him feel more doom-and-gloom than improve-and-iterate. Even though my goal was getting us to focus on the numbers, as they aren't meeting our goals, the language I was using wasn't that productive in doing so! I think that the subpoint here (which might be in the vid - can't wait to watch :) ) is that pessimism can be productive or not productive. The goal of the pessimism, ultimately, is to drive positive improvements to product/processes that could be better. So I'm working on presenting my pessimism as that!

[@GarryTan]

Yes, being real with yourself can cause you to focus, but you don't want so much anxiety that you can't do the right things to succeed.

[@naterush5019]

@@GarryTan totally - and it's even more true when you've got cofounders, I think. I have different preferences (and expectations) for what I'm really trying to communicate when I'm "being a pessimist" vs. my cofounders, and it's important for alignment + morale that I actually communicate what I'm trying to. Which, btw, would love to hear more of your perspective on! I often feel like the startup-help space is so focused on "how can _you_ make a company' that it mostly sidesteps the team aspect, which in my experience is the ultimate in defining what the day-to-day looks/feels like. IMHO, that day-to-day with your team (and customers) really defines how you feel most of the time (and if you can maintain long-term optimism). The messaging on this sort of stuff seems kinda reductive to just like "uh u know have a good cofounder dawg" lol - would love to hear your thoughts in more detail! Btw, for context -- we're trymito.io - if you wanna check it. TL;DR: Edit a spreadsheet, generate Python code, automate your reports + processes :-0

[@terencelam4338]

The number of likes is about 10% of the views. This is such a high engagement ratio. Thanks Garry!

[@Justin-ax]

Well done once again Garry!!

[@mpk08540]

Your production is excellent. And the content is provocative. Good stuff, Garry!

[@PeopleCapital]

This is so good! Love your voice, Gary and the content is golden! 👌🏼

[@stevexie8511]

As always Garry, this is chicken soup for true founders’ soul. Hope it’s ok with you that I share on my LinkedIn 😊

[@GarryTan]

Yes please!

[@yashara257]

videos and content are incredible good plus it's a pleasure to listen to you!

[@dreusu732]

Thanks for sharing Garry! currently in trough of sorrow and will be pushing through it!

[@ousmaneyadely]

Hilarious scene. I like how you insert relevant clips of other videos to illustrate a point. Will definitely share your channel with my cofounder when I find one

[@asoftonight]

i like how you zoom in at important segments. it's like a for videos.

[@GarryTan]

Haha yeah KZbinr trick

[@hasnainabbasdilawar8832]

Being a programmer, I think you're the mentor I needed! Thank you!

[@waymanharris1284]

I love this video Gary, Great work once again!

[@ZayFai]

Makes a lot of sense why short term optimisim doesn't work. If you believe what you're doing is going to work immediately -- why would you work any harder/think critically? I think this beautifly exemplfies the dangers of complacency. When you are complacent, there's no incentive to improve or grow -- you need a "fire under your ass" (pessimism) to continue to work hard!

[@philippezevenberg1332]

my parents: "... why you not president astronaut yet? failure."

[@icloudtechnologies]

Thank you Garry! I needed this. While I'm saying this, my mind is 'connecting all the dots going backwards', what I have in mind for the future, and the things I'm working on to make that a reality.

[@desislavasheinova179]

Your videos actually put me back into the right mindset when I loose motivation or focus. Thank you.

[@andrewithoeft]

Garry, great content as always, tks for that. I'm having this thinking lately that business successes often come with lots of philosophy thinking behind it. You see in many great entrepreneurs these concepts like the one you shared from Andy Grove and so on. Also, you bring excellent references for us, this is amazing.

[@GarryTan]

Absolutely

[@faisalaliyounas]

Love your content Garry. Tons of helpful advice. Thanks.

[@GarryTan]

Glad to hear it

[@aaronalvarado7123]

Thanks for knowledge drop, this is amazingly timely for where I find myself at the moment. BTW - love the angle / depth you're shooting these videos at. Really makes it feel like you're talking 1:1

[@GarryTan]

Oh yeah it's my Zoom angle ha ha. I'm on Zoom 8 hours a day like this anyway.

[@GrowWithWill]

Rest in the end, not in the middle.

[@KingHonh]

Nice sharing .... Definitely will share it to our community

[@_lfaustoo]

Great video as always Garry! Very interesting insight. Time to reflect on this...

[@avazmatovabduvali6116]

Excellent work Garry

[@hiranga]

So much value!!

[@kwamelal2673]

Thank you Garry

[@OmerVexler]

Thank you so much for this video!

[@varakumar1778]

Gary, I 100% relate to your every video. Thank you, Brother. Keep it up.

[@mtikasoga3474]

Really great content man

[@cryptoflippodcast]

"Only the paranoid survive" ❤️

[@martinrandolph8220]

True but "Only the fearless Thrive"

[@GarryTan]

Yes both are true!

[@lifeofluba]

Great video as always! Love all the snippets of wisdoms and quotes to reflect on.

[@carloslfu]

Oh! Luba!

[@gracemelody]

Yes more than useful, thank you. Been watching YT videos on this topic for years but your channel is by far the best, it's relevant for this generation!

[@KevinChee]

I run a start-up (or trying to) and even though I understand what I have to go through, it really is different when you're in it. A strong mindset and belief will go a long way.

[@Onesmo]

Every time, it's something very insightful. Thank you.

[@alysiawu3031]

Really enjoyed and learnt a lot from your videos! Keep up the good work Garry! Appreciate it very much 🙏

[@DrAndrey513]

I love your content. Thank you for taking your time to share such valuable knowledge and how to apply it.

[@minasithilindustries]

Your content has been truly valuable to me. Thank you 🙏🏼

[@mfundomkhize2337]

Took psychedelics and watched a Garry Tan videos, best decision of my life 🤯

[@brianyoon3400]

Great video! Sometimes having a pessimistic attitude drives you to have more grit and makes you work harder to compensate for your shortcomings

[@GarryTan]

Absolutely!

[@platypusandroid5513]

Garry your videos are always great, especially the ones where you talk facecam (the interviews are a bit too long imo). Keep it up and thanks a lot !

[@GarryTan]

Noted! Thanks for watching.

[@quirkyquester]

Love this content. It's an amazing point! Thank you Garry. I've been looking for some ideas. And I've been learning a lot from you. Thank you!

[@nat.serrano]

5:18 is THE advice we need to hear. Simple as that

[@carloslfu]

Great content! Thank you. It is very insightful 🙂

[@AverageAngel]

Excellent video you have a fountain of wisdom

[@DavidVossberg]

Thank you Gary for all the valuable content. You are always so clear and concise and you have a great delivery. Really appreciate you sharing your experience and knowledge.

[@GarryTan]

You are very welcome

[@jelliclesongs]

I hosted an improv night with my VC colleagues recently. I said all the same things you did!

[@benpurcell591]

Really enjoy your videos

[@GarryTan]

Thank you Ben!

[@ricardoseah5156]

Thanks for this Garry! Excellent advice and re-assurance. I thought it was just me being overly paranoid and pessimistic but I suppose it’s a good trait to have as a founder after all

[@GarryTan]

Well as long as it spurs real action that results in a better product or service or business model, you're in good shape. Complacency is dangerous.

[@victorrus01]

Amazing video!

[@o.h.w.6638]

This is brilliant 🙏 I needed this after a hell show if a day. Thank you

[@WaqasADay]

So good!

[@niyilivesinLondon-bm6ds]

Very useful contents thank you so much🙏

[@elrosspangue7443]

Thank you for the wonderful video good sir!!

[@ArjunKocher]

Shiiitt.. never knew you make videos too. Love your tweets bro ♥️

[@MrKaugaban]

Thanks Sifu

[@AhmadAdelHabib]

Love this channel

[@randonmortland7946]

Great explanation! I can totally see the benefits of short terms pessimist and long term optimist.

[@GarryTan]

Glad you liked it!

[@n8style]

A video on the average life-cycle of a startup would be super interesting... What steps does it usually goes through? What are the rough timelines of when it usually goes through them? You've mentioned 10 years a few times, how long would a short timeline or a long timeline be? Big fan!

[@jayyupinhu9146]

Your video contents are superb!

[@GarryTan]

I appreciate that!

[@herul7788]

Thanks!

[@GB-my3uw]

Thank u ❤

[@ToySeeker]

Glamorous Garry 😊

[@waltondornisch7662]

This is the best video...on a personal level, it spoke to me so succinctly. Ordering Grove's book now!

[@GarryTan]

Thanks Walton!

[@rjredom1761]

Thnx for the cool content 😊

[@GarryTan]

My pleasure 😊

[@orion.5611]

Great video

[@PeterPaulMasigan]

Watched this after binge watching rabbit hole after rabbit hole of KZbin... glad to end it on a positive note.

[@extravod3923]

Thanks for the feedback.....for more information *+1/3./2./0../2../1.../..6./..1../9../9../9.* W •H•A•T•S•A•P•P.••••M•E 🔅 💯

[@JosephDiazRamirez]

thank you

[@netrowex]

Great content as always (y)

[@GarryTan]

Appreciate that

[@xumx]

It’s worth discussing the spread of pessimism which can kill the team’s morale and momentum. While founders may have the resilience to stay for the long haul, most employees don’t. They are not going to stay around for 10 years. It’s natural (and rational) for employees to join other companies with more short term optimism. Sometimes even a hint of pessimism can cause a chain reaction of team exodus.

[@GarryTan]

Oh good point - the pessimism is not great to share broadly across the team per se. You do need it at the highest levels in order to focus you though.

[@ShaneBurns]

Super interesting and important. Founder psychology is one of the most underrated areas of focus, but when you listen to people like Ben Hortwitz in the Hard thing about Hard things, is one of the most defining, for better or worse.

[@GarryTan]

Totally agree! That is a great book.

[@justY10]

A great lesson

[@thabsheerhussain457]

Persistence is the key

[@DaniyalSaghirDani]

It's actually a good way to find an alternative solution for a current solution so you can always have something in back-up. Thank You Garry for sharing.

[@GarryTan]

Thanks for watching!

[@hitheshshaji8376]

Hey Garry, Interesting points. I think there is a difference between being positive and being optimistic. To me, being positive means that you are thinking things are great even if it isn't. Whereas optimism is telling yourself no matter what the situation is right now, the future can be better. In this case isn't it better to avoid being positive and start being optimistic, both in the short term and long term? Maybe it is a case of semantics. To me optimism is about your confidence for the future. What you are describing such as competition can be thought of as being positive in a scenario where reality and your perception of reality differs i.e. thinking things are going great when the competition is outperforming you. I think for me short term pessimism would lead to unhappiness which in turn leads to unsustainable productivity/a lack thererof. But maybe for some people this works. Nevertheless enjoyed the video.

[@coolthought8456]

I think there is a difference between the optimist who succeed and the 30% who failed. Those optimist who succeed probably are more grounded and thorough. Personally I think both optimist and pessimist are on the extreme end and taking a middle way of both is probably better. Maybe a realist with long term vision and well grounded with deep insight of the subject. PS. I'm really amazed with your rate of production of such amazing contents.

[@GarryTan]

Thanks! Yes it’s a tricky mix

[@p.s_kev.in96]

Thanks for the vid , people tell me I'm an optimist and personally try to learn from bad experiences, although trying to be optimistic for a long term as such 👍

[@GarryTan]

You can do it!

[@GrowWithWill]

I've found you've got to make it through at least three troughs of sorrow. Those troughs will certainly teach you a thing or two about being too optimistic.

[@MyAkachi]

that guy's face when the dude says jump to conclusions mat, lmfao

[@chrisdavey3113]

Good to great ☺️

[@husainzaidi]

Hey Garry. Amazing video as always. Lovely blast of insight. Would be interesting if you can have an interview with Knowable CEO Warren. I would love to know about his time as a 2x founder and the things he learnt throughout the way. (Particularly had he navigated the trough of sorrow of Vidme?)

[@GarryTan]

Great idea. I will do that.

[@JohnnyQuach]

What camera are you using Gary? Quality looks great.

[@GarryTan]

kit.co/garrytan

[@SuperMario5912]

the grind isn't always sunshine and butterflies, sometimes you just gotta accept the fact that the grind is gonna fuckin suck but you're gonna do it anyway. do the work, and take it step by step. filter out all the nonsense, don't keep actively participating in things that aren't going to push you forward.

[@NielsRask-tillsammans]

Strict upbringing or not, Garry Tan is awesome.

[@GarryTan]

Appreciate you!

[@alexbycroft6330]

where is that video clip from? which tv show?

[@tusharavadhani3707]

Just what I needed to watch rn. I realised I have a tendency of being extra optimistic in the short term, and sometimes favour power over persistence/patience. Keep making these value adding videos man. People like me find them vv useful!

[@GarryTan]

Glad I could help!

[@peterchew846]

May God bless you and your family 🙏🙏🙏 amen

[@rdrocketandduck3573]

Criticism is very rare as friends are being nice. But important. So launch, and do user research

[@_-6912]

What’s the intro music?

[@ashish9136]

very informative video as always. Gary is there a way to get in touch with you ? Would love to have your opinion on a product we are working on.

[@IdowuObadeyi]

Abso-fucking-lutely brilliant!

[@rishikeshjha1357]

I am one of your first subscribers Garry. I am working on the prototype of my idea, Can I apply for the funding at Initialized capital once I get done or should I wait till getting product market fit?

[@GarryTan]

I'm chatting with folks about their ideas on my Instagram.

[@rishikeshjha1357]

Beautiful 💙 Thank you so much, You will see me in your DMs soon.

[@cookinggenius7640]

Love your content - don’t think the music fits this content really well tho