The Future of Nuclear Proliferation After Ukraine

Speaker: Nicholas L. Miller
In the last few years, a number of analysts have warned that we may be on the brink of a more proliferated world, as the security environment deteriorates, concerns about U.S. reliability as a protector are on the rise, hostility between the great powers grows, and the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) seems to be under increasing stress. These fears were supercharged by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which appeared to demonstrate that nuclear weapons can facilitate conquest and that giving them up-as Ukraine did in the early 1990s-exposes states to terrible predation. How worried should we be about the nuclear club expanding in the coming decade? Drawing on lessons from nuclear history, I argue that while proliferation risks are growing, they are significantly more manageable than many analysts suggest. And while the odds of proliferation are increasing in both East Asia and the Middle East, we should be significantly more concerned about the latter.