The Global Solvency Crisis | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv

This week Real Vision use Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at how a solvency crisis will emerge out of the hope phase of this economic shock, in a wide-ranging interview with Real Vision’s CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal. Government accommodation has helped to offset the initial liquidity shock, but balance sheets have been impaired at the household, corporate and government level.
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: refini.tv/2Tq42o2
Subscribe now for more videos like this one: rvtv.io/2OW3mqu
Become a member of Real Vision -- get started for 30 days for only $1: rvtv.io/membership
About Refinitiv:
For new insights on artificial intelligence (AI), digitalization, big data, risk management, compliance, fighting financial crime and the future of trading and investing, visit our insights hub - refinitiv.com/perspectives. Refinitiv is one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, serving over 40,000 institutions in approximately 190 countries. It provides leading data and insights, trading platforms, and open data and technology platforms that connect a thriving global financial markets community - driving performance in trading, investment, wealth management, regulatory compliance, market data management, enterprise risk and fighting financial crime. www.refinitiv.com
We invite you to join Refinitiv's social media communities:
/ refinitiv
/ refinitiv
/ refinitiv
/ refinitiv
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™.
Disclaimer:
The content and information (“Content”) in the video programs (“Video Programs”) is provided for informational purposes only and not investment advice. You should not construe any such Content, information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other professional advice nor does any such information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed. None of the Content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Refinitiv or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content is information of a general nature, is illustrative only and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Refinitiv is not a fiduciary by virtue of any person’s use of or access to the Video Programs or Content. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content in the Video Programs before making any decisions based on such information or other Content. In exchange for accessing and viewing the Video Programs and Content, you agree not to hold Refinitiv, its affiliates or any third party service provider liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information or other Content made available to you through the Video Programs. The Content and information in the Video Programs has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Refinitiv makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the Content. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in the Video Programs is subject to change without notice. Refinitiv does not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Refinitiv disclaims all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in Video Programs. Refinitiv does not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstances. Refinitiv does not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in the Video Programs and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive back less than originally invested and past performance is not necessarily reflective of future performance.

[@parabolic_33]

Raoul's bandwidth needs a bailout lol

[@ephphatha230]

That's what happens in a country without tax 😂

[@Tsubaki518]

Go look at Little Cayman on Google Maps, he's on satellite.

[@TheDNAGroup]

lol

[@oggeee96]

He has to wait for Elon to get Starlink online

[@peterk.5934]

5G ? LOL

[@JMnyJohns]

Amazing to watch a finance/econ channel like this where the host isn't an insecure, self-serving huckster. Clear, rational and helpful - this is what such channels should aspire to. Definite follow.

[@jimwolfe4286]

Rodger, Thank you for this wonderful interview with Raoul Pal. The macro analysis explained quite clearly how the " 4 D's" are correlated. ....Greatly appreciated.......Godspeed....

[@pedrorodrigueztube]

Beautiful deleveraging = Debt write off

[@81Sazerac]

Love hearing these two talk Macro! Great Macro Dialogue!

[@johnny-yi2oi]

I’m scared shitless now, thanks for that Raoul. Great analysis

[@K4n01]

I love Raoul Pal´s macro clarity.

[@kevinj5989]

Excellent! I love Raoul's ideas! Thank you!

[@jessicapae9642]

I love this particular interview. I watched it a few times. That's why I subscribed to the REAL VISION.

[@sinematographers3344]

Thank you for the update guys. Appreciated

[@MMTInvesting]

Thank you Rodger & Raoul. One of the only channels talking about the actual financial causes here 😁👍 I'm trying to get this data into my mathematical bubble wave cycle model. Click my face to check it out ✌️🐻

[@Newtorin]

Great interview! Can Raol Pal get a better webcam, please?

[@koma7778]

Karlis Treijs its crisis, everybody has financial teoubles

[@georgelindsey7370]

Outstanding Presentation, Thank you!

[@AbuSous2000PR]

brilliant session...the questions and the answers

[@probowie]

I've learned so much watching your videos. Why isn't this stuff taught in school? Thank you!!

[@asumamonsta]

even economy school doesnt teach it, you hv to be in it to know what is really going on.

[@michael53572]

school is to keep him rich and you poor

[@IngoBing]

Thanks Raul! Again!

[@mfer134]

I'm going to watch this again! Well done

[@sommi888]

💛💚💙🧡 Raoul is a beast. Long Bitcoin, Long Gold! Long live the Free Market 💛💚💙🧡

[@freedom5538]

Very informative discussion. Thank you!

[@dazzyduck3471]

Thank you guys - concise and amazingly informative

[@steventokeshi8847]

love the clarity in hedging both inflation and deflation. One caveat that I wish they would have hammered home more is time horizon- making sure to have enough liquidity to weather the storm, because both gold and bitcoin can easily go through periods sell off in order to meet liquidity requirements.

[@willr8915]

Exactly. I'm considering taking a short term cash position for this very reason. Inflation/deflation will not happen as quickly or as dramatically as a potential Bitcoin/Gold selloff, and you can multiply your position in the dip.

[@patrickw2836]

I've found myself in the smart part of KZbin.

[@delatroy]

No I’m still here

[@koma7778]

i thought it didnt exist

[@mitchtherighteous]

If that branding helps you by their services, sure why not?

[@postscript5549]

EXCELLENT presentation!! Thank you very much.

[@gogibo66]

Great conversation!

[@robinfaulkner9945]

Thank you for these videos! great stuff

[@BrendanMetcalfe]

Interesting takes, thanks!

[@johnl4469]

Always enjoy Raoul. Thanks gents.

[@BarberSrellyk]

Thank you gents!!

[@RommieKamzols]

Great conversation, thanks for sharing!

[@casabelavistabv3444]

Awesome thanks

[@mkelly1118]

Excellent. Thanks for sharing.

[@JESS-CH]

This was fantastic, Cheers Raoul 🍻

[@stef6279]

Just one word: great! Wonderful interview 👏 Keep it up boys

[@anpneale6227]

Really enjoyed this discussion guys, very informative, detailed yet succinct at the same time...A fantastic summary of where things are at in the financial world, great for experienced or novice traders/investors. Thank you Raoul and Rodger.

[@JosePerez-on7qs]

brutal podcast, terrific!

[@StephanePasquierThailand]

Simply amazing. Raoul is a Star.

[@dennismaddock]

Once again an excellent video. Much appreciated.

[@richardsharpe5878]

Thanks, RV for letting the common person in on this type of macro insight

[@mattsullivan8286]

Great interview thanks chaps

[@quacktuber1051]

Brilliant!

[@hosiecarmona9650]

Thank you for a clear explanation.

[@braden6992]

Once again the best analysis on the internet for what's going on and what will happen next!

[@bucheronix]

Gentlemen, an indication of the date each video was recorded would be much appreciated.

[@rond5323]

You can see that in the notes revealed if you touch the tiny 'pyramid' below the video on the right, when not in the full screen mode (on a pocket size screen). (Turn the pyramid upside down)

[@willjezewski5595]

Thanks to both of you, love Raoul... Real Vision has helped me so much, I'm gonna subscribe to plus going forward. This is a great expansion on Brent's 'Dollar Milkshake'. Think I'm going to be moving into Gold for primary, Silver, Bitcoin, and Dollar Forex for speculations. Have been accumulating hard assets for awhile but I want to get my money working for me again.

[@hederahelix622]

Raoul Pal is a warrior. The dude is not scared to take a trade

[@ernestorachitoff4122]

Great conversation and interview

[@JoaoLuissonhar]

excellent Raoul

[@ericweis9771]

Wow great perspective. Thanks!

[@ValerioDiNapoli]

If I could have a beer with any person in the world, Raoul Pal would probably be one of my first choices: he's not only smart and likable, but incredibly passionate, I mean look at the shine in his eyes while he's explaining monetary policies! Would be amazing to learn a thing or two from him.

[@nachannachle2706]

It gets a bit lonely in Caiman islands, even with a wife and a billion dollars net worth. Having an audience is what he craves, hence he started this channel. Plenty of YT-ers out there do the same because that's all they have left to feel "connected" to Humanity.

[@PindarMOD]

Very clear and informative. Scary times ahead.

[@djbareshi6632]

great content - thanks !!! :)

[@oanagonzalez4653]

Thank you Raoul, I was trying to figure out which currencies will get weakened, since all major banks are printing but the FED is printing the most in absolute terms. You explained beautifully how the FED would need to print so much more than it is currently printing to weaken the dollar against the euro, sterling etc Your videos are the best!!

[@redhatt69]

Nice Toupe

[@fotouhi]

This is a very depressing clip yet educational. Thanks for the upload.

[@generalyan7084]

Raoul, let's play a game of pool/billiards and discuss the USD negative interest rates end game...I'll bring the beers. Cheers

[@kitaki2012]

Amazing work guys, so much info packed into this. Glad to see others are seeing Bitcoin as the future. Governments have shown time & time again they are not responsible enough to issue currency. Time for the separation of Money and State

[@darryllopes2243]

Great interview. Currency is where it is at, I earn dollars and convert it to South African rands based on the exchange rate.

[@marystilwell7418]

Raoul...what is your dog's name? Watched this vid more than once...excellent info as always!

[@warrenb2856]

Raul, I know you love the Caymans, but wish you could get a terabit connection.

[@honuk435]

gee, I wonder why he would love the caymans

[@henrybarnard644]

Rates are always the best indicator.

[@TheDustyfox]

Absolutely brilliant! The 4 Ds of Doom 😉

[@zernyx1224]

I agree.

[@nathanahtan96]

Any tips on going long dollar in forex in terms of how to manage leverage?

[@Rawdiswar]

Buy in with small increments and watch your margin %. Fx can move very quickly so time your entry as best you can, don't be afraid to take profit and for god's sake use your stop losses. That's all I got buddy.

[@escapefelicity2913]

In 25 words or less: we were sleepwalking toward a cliff; now we're sleepjogging.

[@user936]

and we sold out parachute for better sneakers

[@jamesmorton7881]

THE HAWKEY STICK - - - -NO RECOVERY COMING THIS IS - - NOT - - A BLACK SWAN, (EASY TO PREDICT & HIGH IMPACT) 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍

[@thomaskauser8978]

Steely Dan - everything most go.

[@jamesmorton7881]

@@thomaskauser8978 The four DAY work week, long over due.

[@dolganthecute]

2020- the year of hindsight

[@AndrePorter]

I have a degree in Finance. You guys know your stuff!

[@locaburg]

So, what I got out of this: Watch the Bond rates, Buy Gold and Bitcoin.

[@pimmeijer7589]

Hi Mark, My name is Pim. Could you tell me some more about the bonds? How exacly should I watch the bond rates? Will they spike and is that the moment to buy? Also which bonds? And where do i find them? Thanks :)

[@henrymakepeace]

@@pimmeijer7589 he was saying that if five and ten year bonds go zero then recession will take very long.

[@lazenbytim]

So my takeaway is they are going to have to move to UBI, or the whole house of cards comes crashing down.

[@stevewilliams846]

UBI is the house of cards having crashed.

[@shawnkalin9337]

Or a biowar that eliminates a billion people?

[@AndieBlack13]

@@shawnkalin9337 More likely, the virtual entire population will be "infected", and some 150 million will expire from this. The so-called "Old peoples homes", those medically supported places where octogenarians reside...those will be abandoned, devoid of occupants. All the benefits of the medical industry, that enabled our oldest of peoples to live longer...those progresses of the last one-hundred years, overtaken by the virus.

[@gaylewilliams4805]

Yes, but actually UBI is the least of it. Theres approximately 250 trillion in debt spread across the planet. The bulk of it is expressed in U.S. dollar denominations. This represents what Raoul is alluding to.

[@mcgugrah]

Gayle Williams Exeter’s pyramid. Quadrillion in derivatives. Eurodollar system has no reserves.

[@aspencouloir761]

Thanks. This is an insightful discussion, but there is an important miss on inflation IMO. The CPI is a total scam number. It's regularly tweaked to make it look like there is no inflation, meanwhile large sectors of the US economy are seeing significant inflation (e.g. healthcare, education, food, housing). Perhaps gold is sniffing out that "they" will soon not be able to deceive enough people about how much inflation is really in the US.

sum it up : gold (platinum, silver...), bitcoin and some dollar

[@bxv5234]

Currently listening to "The Great Depression: A Diary" which is a diary written by a guy who lived through the depression. The scary part is that this guy and everybody around him was scared of inflation. There were these hard money maniacs everywhere and basically everybody was looking in the wrong direction - they were in the midst of a massive deflation yet all they could see was the dangers of "money printing" and "weak dollar" and "leaving the gold standard". Its fasciating to see how blindfolded everybody was back then.

[@cav4290]

Either Raul Pal lives in a bar in a Thailand or he urgently needs help with his interior design, Rodger on the other hand has pushed the envelope with his "room divider".

[@tcpwiz1]

I think it is Ash with the room divider 🙂

[@alexconnors1027]

I think if the room divider got a run in your vid analysis , I think you may of missed the key takeaway' s. Best Vid in 2020 guys!

[@0hkk]

congrats on the new shirt

[@theferaltaint5065]

It still baffles me when people conflate artificial demand with actual demand in the market. Injections of liquidity in the form of loans is not real demand especially in an over-leveraged market.

[@China2TXMan]

Lol, every conversation with Raoul ends up on gold and Bitcoin. Not saying I'm not agreeing, but man this guy is persistent.

[@billv4072]

Two real assets that can move around the world without being traced. Both are easily converted to local currency. Most other assets are either fixed in place, or can be frozen or traced.

[@mcgugrah]

Bill V bitcoin not perfectly anonymous but better than fiat.

[@AdamWoodhams]

How to watch bonds - what's the ticker?

[@ziggyelliott8094]

Brilliant gymnastics and monetary economics - but I got totally lost halfway :-) - digesting

[@MrsGondee]

They should record native from each person, allow them to talk via video chat, then piece them together in post. Perfect res even with poor internet

[@davidrankin3739]

Thanks Raoul, now I'm telling myself that I fear making to much money. We'll see if man's self-destructive nature sets in to make these fears a reality. Love the videos! LoL

[@kentnimmo7369]

that comment Raoul made about there being so many dollars in the world so the US is at a big disadvantage when it comes to devaluing. that is important to understand because it is an extremely important macro factor. it is easy to see the FED printing and US budget deficits and think that means weak dollar but the amount of dollars and assets prices in dollars need to be taken into account. the more assets that are priced in dollars the more potential for dollar deflation. this is such a simple idea but does not seem to be talked about enough. the more USD gets inflows of capital, and debt denominated in USD defaults, the stronger the dollar will get. This is a feedback loop that will cause more debt to default in places that are hurt by the stronger relative dollar. big moves are all about feedback loops. this is probably one that is coming.

[@skyoung419z]

Kenr Nimmo you nailed it. We’re facing a potential doom vortex. Could be profitable if not terrifying.

[@MMTInvesting]

How do you bet on bonds going negative?

[@JP-td5yx]

Excellent analysis. I love gold long term. The only problem is that gold always falls (short term) when equities crash. We saw this effect in March. So it’s not a true safe haven when the market crashes

[@felixgorrindo7471]

Does anyone know when this was filmed?

[@corwinwoody]

May 12, day after the bitcoin halving as Raoul said early on

[@plantpoweredguru]

What about the stagflation option ? How do we monitor this. Certainly in the developing world countries.

[@CyberSamuraiCA]

What generally happens to gold and silver in deflation?

[@rjlane3475]

20% in each: cash, bitcoin, gold, short-term bonds, short the Russell 2000

[@antonystringfellow5152]

@Cardinal Sin What's about to happen (within a week)?

[@ClaytonBigsby01]

@@antonystringfellow5152 nothing

[@ihtfp004]

Just buy some leap puts as they’re relatively cheap right now.

[@benfranklin9156]

I bought some silver in 1983. Spot is same price today. SIVR and switch to physical later.

[@michael53572]

33 cash 33 gold 33 bitcoin.....forget the bonds

[@NonPremiumID]

Fast-Forward, to the year 2022. ☠

[@richardchua8006]

What’s his viewpoint on currency- dollar , and euro will go higher ? Emerging markets lower ?

[@martainroth2588]

I've been asking people for months, what happens when global debt becomes higher then global income. Revolution usually happen when people realize they don't have anything to lose any more. The next revolution happens when people break into banks to destroy servers that control debt.

[@fudogwhisperer3590]

Isn't access to capitol and access to cash flow the same thing?? Aren't they both a liquidity problem?? If not explain how its different, I don't understand.

[@ralphelliot1840]

His conceptual approach IMHO is spot on. Though why he has not mentioned US Treasury principal zero bonds baffles me. Having been in the UK US Euro zero bond markets since the 1980s its always surprised me how so few retail investors have cottoned on. I remember my first trade buying CATs at 8 and selling at 98 on a YTM of 9% add fx cross rate and the compound growth rate was 15%. The secular trend has been down ever since yes we are approaching the end game but if you have a broker and enough funds it's one area to consider again you heed, to understand how they work and have deep pockets

[@jason5327]

What does a strong dollar mean for housing market in the US?

[@MoneyEducator]

Thank you. Great conversation. Both the host and guest weaved through macro investment options in a very methodical and understandable way. Even after having an MBA in international finance from Columbia I was not able to understand, until after reading Richebacher letters from several years and reading Doug Noland Credit Bubble Bulletin for over 15 years. As a Muslim we can't invest in interest-bearing instruments, like bonds, options and futures. Instead, I invested on real stuff like Gold, silver, cash, and agricultural land since 2003, expecting that we will go into a dollar crisis in 2008. Now I have a fresh on USD's new lease on life.

[@lessonsfromvillagelife]

You can't invest in bonds because you are a Muslim, well than invest in holy war fought by Taliban in Afghanistan.

[@mahernajjar1255]

What he says is contradictory. If you have the dollar getting stronger vs assets and deflationary pressured then why would gold prices increase?

[@HKHasty]

I understand the asymmetric strength of the US dollar not allowing money printing to catch up. There’s an important factor that differentiates EUR/JPY/GBP from BRL and TRY -> Fed swap lines! Surprised there was no mention of that here whatsoever and the impact that has on controlling the relative strength of those currencies

[@lazenbytim]

Everyone needs to read the Price of Tomorrow by Jim Booth.

[@shawnkalin9337]

Can you point out some relevance to this fiasco we're in? Thanks.

[@terrillmel]

Just finished it. Prior to my reading UBI seemed like the only answer. I still think UBI is where were heading, but if deflation could be adopted that would be best. Great book. Everything sounds like fluff now. We address the 3rd and 4th order consequences but the root cause is inflation policies in the midst of technology ever driving deflation.

[@dominicspagnuolo2837]

In australia - there are people saying that the government is looking at given people $100K - regardless of what value you had... what would it do if 13.5M got $100K - what would happen to Australia?

[@AllThingsFunny77]

They also use borrowed money to buy stock. They are not using earnings. In nost cases dont earn nearly enough.

[@nigellim4851]

Great info could use better audio quality though.

[@josehawkins4276]

It's not the spending, it's the productive capacity.

[@redarmanino1513]

Amazing content, can Raoul use a better mic tho?!

[@James-il3tq]

And cam.

[@johnwinchester2428]

Markets already pricing in zero interest rates! Fed is trapped.

[@koma7778]

john winchester this

[@tcpwiz1]

So the question is: Will the US equity market roll over and follow precedent, or, will it continue to pump higher due to Fed monetary actions?

[@StephanePasquierThailand]

Crash -90%, like in 1929. The roadmap is clear.

[@mcgugrah]

Mike Roche QE did nothing for Japan stocks.

[@chrisdoe6890]

The US market will be the only global ship still floating . Then the world will be chasing a return on their money so money goes where it gets best return . The demand for dollars and a means to invest says were in for a roaring 20’s . 2021 according to Martin Armstrong shows a boom in equities but hinges on this bogus lockdown ending soon.