The Global Solvency Crisis | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv

[@JMnyJohns]

Amazing to watch a finance/econ channel like this where the host isn't an insecure, self-serving huckster. Clear, rational and helpful - this is what such channels should aspire to. Definite follow.

[@jimwolfe4286]

Rodger, Thank you for this wonderful interview with Raoul Pal. The macro analysis explained quite clearly how the " 4 D's" are correlated. ....Greatly appreciated.......Godspeed....

[@PRTube01]

Beautiful deleveraging = Debt write off

[@parabolic_33]

Raoul's bandwidth needs a bailout lol

[@ephphatha230]

That's what happens in a country without tax 😂

[@Tsubaki518]

Go look at Little Cayman on Google Maps, he's on satellite.

[@TheDNAGroup]

lol

[@oggeee96]

He has to wait for Elon to get Starlink online

[@peterk.5934]

5G ? LOL

[@jessicapae9642]

I love this particular interview. I watched it a few times. That's why I subscribed to the REAL VISION.

[@johnny-yi2oi]

I’m scared shitless now, thanks for that Raoul. Great analysis

[@81Sazerac]

Love hearing these two talk Macro! Great Macro Dialogue!

[@kevinj5989]

Excellent! I love Raoul's ideas! Thank you!

[@patrickw2836]

I've found myself in the smart part of KZbin.

[@delatroy]

No I’m still here

[@koma7778]

i thought it didnt exist

[@mitchtherighteous]

If that branding helps you by their services, sure why not?

[@edwinvanderhoeven]

absolutely fab interview. Great to look at the macro econ view. thanks so much

[@K4n01]

I love Raoul Pal´s macro clarity.

[@willjezewski5595]

Thanks to both of you, love Raoul... Real Vision has helped me so much, I'm gonna subscribe to plus going forward. This is a great expansion on Brent's 'Dollar Milkshake'. Think I'm going to be moving into Gold for primary, Silver, Bitcoin, and Dollar Forex for speculations. Have been accumulating hard assets for awhile but I want to get my money working for me again.

[@probowie]

I've learned so much watching your videos. Why isn't this stuff taught in school? Thank you!!

[@asumamonsta]

even economy school doesnt teach it, you hv to be in it to know what is really going on.

[@michael53572]

school is to keep him rich and you poor

[@anpneale6227]

Really enjoyed this discussion guys, very informative, detailed yet succinct at the same time...A fantastic summary of where things are at in the financial world, great for experienced or novice traders/investors. Thank you Raoul and Rodger.

[@steventokeshi8847]

love the clarity in hedging both inflation and deflation. One caveat that I wish they would have hammered home more is time horizon- making sure to have enough liquidity to weather the storm, because both gold and bitcoin can easily go through periods sell off in order to meet liquidity requirements.

[@willr8915]

Exactly. I'm considering taking a short term cash position for this very reason. Inflation/deflation will not happen as quickly or as dramatically as a potential Bitcoin/Gold selloff, and you can multiply your position in the dip.

[@georgelindsey7370]

Outstanding Presentation, Thank you!

[@sommi888]

💛💚💙🧡 Raoul is a beast. Long Bitcoin, Long Gold! Long live the Free Market 💛💚💙🧡

[@MMTInvesting]

Thank you Rodger & Raoul. One of the only channels talking about the actual financial causes here 😁👍 I'm trying to get this data into my mathematical bubble wave cycle model. Click my face to check it out ✌️🐻

[@johnl4469]

Always enjoy Raoul. Thanks gents.

[@sinematographers3344]

Thank you for the update guys. Appreciated

[@Newtorin]

Great interview! Can Raol Pal get a better webcam, please?

[@koma7778]

Karlis Treijs its crisis, everybody has financial teoubles

[@hederahelix622]

Raoul Pal is a warrior. The dude is not scared to take a trade

[@JESS-CH]

This was fantastic, Cheers Raoul 🍻

[@robinfaulkner9945]

Thank you for these videos! great stuff

[@ValerioDiNapoli]

If I could have a beer with any person in the world, Raoul Pal would probably be one of my first choices: he's not only smart and likable, but incredibly passionate, I mean look at the shine in his eyes while he's explaining monetary policies! Would be amazing to learn a thing or two from him.

[@nachannachle2706]

It gets a bit lonely in Caiman islands, even with a wife and a billion dollars net worth. Having an audience is what he craves, hence he started this channel. Plenty of YT-ers out there do the same because that's all they have left to feel "connected" to Humanity.

[@richardsharpe5878]

Thanks, RV for letting the common person in on this type of macro insight

[@escapefelicity2913]

In 25 words or less: we were sleepwalking toward a cliff; now we're sleepjogging.

[@user936]

and we sold out parachute for better sneakers

[@jamesmorton7881]

THE HAWKEY STICK - - - -NO RECOVERY COMING THIS IS - - NOT - - A BLACK SWAN, (EASY TO PREDICT & HIGH IMPACT) 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍

[@thomaskauser8978]

Steely Dan - everything most go.

[@jamesmorton7881]

@@thomaskauser8978 The four DAY work week, long over due.

[@dolganthecute]

2020- the year of hindsight

[@IngoBing]

Thanks Raul! Again!

[@freedom5538]

Very informative discussion. Thank you!

[@braden6992]

Once again the best analysis on the internet for what's going on and what will happen next!

[@bxv5234]

Currently listening to "The Great Depression: A Diary" which is a diary written by a guy who lived through the depression. The scary part is that this guy and everybody around him was scared of inflation. There were these hard money maniacs everywhere and basically everybody was looking in the wrong direction - they were in the midst of a massive deflation yet all they could see was the dangers of "money printing" and "weak dollar" and "leaving the gold standard". Its fasciating to see how blindfolded everybody was back then.

[@oanagonzalez4653]

Thank you Raoul, I was trying to figure out which currencies will get weakened, since all major banks are printing but the FED is printing the most in absolute terms. You explained beautifully how the FED would need to print so much more than it is currently printing to weaken the dollar against the euro, sterling etc Your videos are the best!!

[@dazzyduck3471]

Thank you guys - concise and amazingly informative

[@gogibo66]

Great conversation!

[@ericweis9771]

Wow great perspective. Thanks!

[@mfer134]

I'm going to watch this again! Well done

[@dennismaddock]

Once again an excellent video. Much appreciated.

[@stef6279]

Just one word: great! Wonderful interview 👏 Keep it up boys

[@JosePerez-on7qs]

brutal podcast, terrific!

[@locaburg]

So, what I got out of this: Watch the Bond rates, Buy Gold and Bitcoin.

[@pimmeijer7589]

Hi Mark, My name is Pim. Could you tell me some more about the bonds? How exacly should I watch the bond rates? Will they spike and is that the moment to buy? Also which bonds? And where do i find them? Thanks :)

[@henrymakepeace]

@@pimmeijer7589 he was saying that if five and ten year bonds go zero then recession will take very long.

[@bucheronix]

Gentlemen, an indication of the date each video was recorded would be much appreciated.

[@rond5323]

You can see that in the notes revealed if you touch the tiny 'pyramid' below the video on the right, when not in the full screen mode (on a pocket size screen). (Turn the pyramid upside down)

[@AbuSous2000PR]

brilliant session...the questions and the answers

[@RommieKamzols]

Great conversation, thanks for sharing!

[@postscript5549]

EXCELLENT presentation!! Thank you very much.

[@BarberSrellyk]

Thank you gents!!

[@lazenbytim]

So my takeaway is they are going to have to move to UBI, or the whole house of cards comes crashing down.

[@stevewilliams846]

UBI is the house of cards having crashed.

[@shawnkalin9337]

Or a biowar that eliminates a billion people?

[@AndieBlack13]

@@shawnkalin9337 More likely, the virtual entire population will be "infected", and some 150 million will expire from this. The so-called "Old peoples homes", those medically supported places where octogenarians reside...those will be abandoned, devoid of occupants. All the benefits of the medical industry, that enabled our oldest of peoples to live longer...those progresses of the last one-hundred years, overtaken by the virus.

[@gaylewilliams4805]

Yes, but actually UBI is the least of it. Theres approximately 250 trillion in debt spread across the planet. The bulk of it is expressed in U.S. dollar denominations. This represents what Raoul is alluding to.

[@mcgugrah]

Gayle Williams Exeter’s pyramid. Quadrillion in derivatives. Eurodollar system has no reserves.

[@djbareshi6632]

great content - thanks !!! :)

[@generalyan7084]

Raoul, let's play a game of pool/billiards and discuss the USD negative interest rates end game...I'll bring the beers. Cheers

[@StephanePasquierThailand]

Simply amazing. Raoul is a Star.

[@JoaoLuissonhar]

excellent Raoul

[@theferaltaint5065]

It still baffles me when people conflate artificial demand with actual demand in the market. Injections of liquidity in the form of loans is not real demand especially in an over-leveraged market.

[@AdamWoodhams]

How to watch bonds - what's the ticker?

[@henrybarnard644]

Rates are always the best indicator.

[@bernardwatts5339]

I don't need to buy many clothes, hardware etc for the next 20 years. We've bought enough Chinese plastic. I can repair their stuff that's broken and have something better than new. Convince me that I need to buy new stuff. Convince me that my frugality is wrong; once it was a virtue.

[@kitaki2012]

Amazing work guys, so much info packed into this. Glad to see others are seeing Bitcoin as the future. Governments have shown time & time again they are not responsible enough to issue currency. Time for the separation of Money and State

[@PindarMOD]

Very clear and informative. Scary times ahead.

[@AndrePorter]

I have a degree in Finance. You guys know your stuff!

[@RussUmp24]

Thank you for a clear explanation.

[@BrendanMetcalfe]

Interesting takes, thanks!

[@mahernajjar1255]

What he says is contradictory. If you have the dollar getting stronger vs assets and deflationary pressured then why would gold prices increase?

[@josehawkins4276]

It's not the spending, it's the productive capacity.

sum it up : gold (platinum, silver...), bitcoin and some dollar

[@cav4290]

Either Raul Pal lives in a bar in a Thailand or he urgently needs help with his interior design, Rodger on the other hand has pushed the envelope with his "room divider".

[@tcpwiz1]

I think it is Ash with the room divider 🙂

[@alexconnors1027]

I think if the room divider got a run in your vid analysis , I think you may of missed the key takeaway' s. Best Vid in 2020 guys!

[@aspencouloir761]

Thanks. This is an insightful discussion, but there is an important miss on inflation IMO. The CPI is a total scam number. It's regularly tweaked to make it look like there is no inflation, meanwhile large sectors of the US economy are seeing significant inflation (e.g. healthcare, education, food, housing). Perhaps gold is sniffing out that "they" will soon not be able to deceive enough people about how much inflation is really in the US.

[@warrenb2856]

Raul, I know you love the Caymans, but wish you could get a terabit connection.

[@honuk435]

gee, I wonder why he would love the caymans

[@mkelly1118]

Excellent. Thanks for sharing.

[@martainroth2588]

I've been asking people for months, what happens when global debt becomes higher then global income. Revolution usually happen when people realize they don't have anything to lose any more. The next revolution happens when people break into banks to destroy servers that control debt.

[@mattsullivan8286]

Great interview thanks chaps

[@marystilwell7418]

Raoul...what is your dog's name? Watched this vid more than once...excellent info as always!

[@quacktuber1051]

Brilliant!

[@casabelavistabv3444]

Awesome thanks

[@rjlane3475]

20% in each: cash, bitcoin, gold, short-term bonds, short the Russell 2000

[@antonystringfellow5152]

@Cardinal Sin What's about to happen (within a week)?

[@ClaytonBigsby01]

@@antonystringfellow5152 nothing

[@ihtfp004]

Just buy some leap puts as they’re relatively cheap right now.

[@benfranklin9156]

I bought some silver in 1983. Spot is same price today. SIVR and switch to physical later.

[@michael53572]

33 cash 33 gold 33 bitcoin.....forget the bonds

[@fudogwhisperer3590]

Isn't access to capitol and access to cash flow the same thing?? Aren't they both a liquidity problem?? If not explain how its different, I don't understand.

[@JP-td5yx]

Excellent analysis. I love gold long term. The only problem is that gold always falls (short term) when equities crash. We saw this effect in March. So it’s not a true safe haven when the market crashes

[@MrsGondee]

They should record native from each person, allow them to talk via video chat, then piece them together in post. Perfect res even with poor internet

[@DonFather]

The European Union is essentially if you took a family of brothers and sisters who all made different amounts of income, have different amounts of debt, and asked them all to pool some of their money together to "look out for each other." There will always, ALWAYS be those who make less and spend like no tomorrow. And then there will ALWAYS be those who save all their money and penny pinch. What do you think will happen to that family? This Union should just break apart, but they can't because the top dog penny pinchers also act like mob bosses that say "You can join, but you cannot leave or there WILL be consequences."

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Funny, and oh so true!

[@davidrankin3739]

Thanks Raoul, now I'm telling myself that I fear making to much money. We'll see if man's self-destructive nature sets in to make these fears a reality. Love the videos! LoL

[@kentnimmo]

that comment Raoul made about there being so many dollars in the world so the US is at a big disadvantage when it comes to devaluing. that is important to understand because it is an extremely important macro factor. it is easy to see the FED printing and US budget deficits and think that means weak dollar but the amount of dollars and assets prices in dollars need to be taken into account. the more assets that are priced in dollars the more potential for dollar deflation. this is such a simple idea but does not seem to be talked about enough. the more USD gets inflows of capital, and debt denominated in USD defaults, the stronger the dollar will get. This is a feedback loop that will cause more debt to default in places that are hurt by the stronger relative dollar. big moves are all about feedback loops. this is probably one that is coming.

[@skyoung419z]

Kenr Nimmo you nailed it. We’re facing a potential doom vortex. Could be profitable if not terrifying.

[@MMTInvesting]

How do you bet on bonds going negative?

[@China2TXMan]

Lol, every conversation with Raoul ends up on gold and Bitcoin. Not saying I'm not agreeing, but man this guy is persistent.

[@billv4072]

Two real assets that can move around the world without being traced. Both are easily converted to local currency. Most other assets are either fixed in place, or can be frozen or traced.

[@mcgugrah]

Bill V bitcoin not perfectly anonymous but better than fiat.

[@ralphelliot1840]

His conceptual approach IMHO is spot on. Though why he has not mentioned US Treasury principal zero bonds baffles me. Having been in the UK US Euro zero bond markets since the 1980s its always surprised me how so few retail investors have cottoned on. I remember my first trade buying CATs at 8 and selling at 98 on a YTM of 9% add fx cross rate and the compound growth rate was 15%. The secular trend has been down ever since yes we are approaching the end game but if you have a broker and enough funds it's one area to consider again you heed, to understand how they work and have deep pockets

[@fotouhi]

This is a very depressing clip yet educational. Thanks for the upload.

[@dominicspagnuolo2837]

In australia - there are people saying that the government is looking at given people $100K - regardless of what value you had... what would it do if 13.5M got $100K - what would happen to Australia?

[@Hermod_Hermit]

Meanwhile, people keep paying Netflix and are watching KZbin videos with Pewdiepie and Rihanna. The insight has not really hit home yet, and tbh it is a fantastic time to take financial advantage.

[@ernestorachitoff4122]

Great conversation and interview

[@darryllopes2243]

Great interview. Currency is where it is at, I earn dollars and convert it to South African rands based on the exchange rate.

[@CyberSamuraiCA]

What generally happens to gold and silver in deflation?

[@nathanahtan96]

Any tips on going long dollar in forex in terms of how to manage leverage?

[@Rawdiswar]

Buy in with small increments and watch your margin %. Fx can move very quickly so time your entry as best you can, don't be afraid to take profit and for god's sake use your stop losses. That's all I got buddy.

[@TheDustyfox]

Absolutely brilliant! The 4 Ds of Doom 😉

[@HKHasty]

I understand the asymmetric strength of the US dollar not allowing money printing to catch up. There’s an important factor that differentiates EUR/JPY/GBP from BRL and TRY -> Fed swap lines! Surprised there was no mention of that here whatsoever and the impact that has on controlling the relative strength of those currencies

[@DonFather]

In a typical war, the economy is shifted into high gear. In this war, there is only uncertainty, fear, contraction, recession, and an invisible enemy. The enemy is so sly that it's the only war in history where the US has no reason to fight back, or risk world wide backlash, even tho it has all that military might. This was the smarter than any smartbomb or any high tech gadget that the anyone could even think of building.

[@zSkandal]

Speaking of China?

[@NonPremiumID]

Fast-Forward, to the year 2022. ☠

[@AllThingsFunny77]

They also use borrowed money to buy stock. They are not using earnings. In nost cases dont earn nearly enough.

[@jason5327]

What does a strong dollar mean for housing market in the US?

[@plantpoweredguru]

What about the stagflation option ? How do we monitor this. Certainly in the developing world countries.

[@johnwinchester2428]

Markets already pricing in zero interest rates! Fed is trapped.

[@koma7778]

john winchester this

[@richardchua8006]

What’s his viewpoint on currency- dollar , and euro will go higher ? Emerging markets lower ?

[@jorgegomez524]

I will tell you how the world will be in the next 10 years. Imagine doing Macro analysis in the economy of Italian-states of the XIV on a day by day basis. Nothing will make sense...nobody will figure this out.

[@gorthorki]

Who print the money necessary to pay for the money printing? 🤔

[@James-il3tq]

No one, it's digital.

[@continuousminer]

Its a number on a screen

[@michaels4255]

@@continuousminer How easy would it be to "counterfeit" those digital dollars??? Could China, for example, "print" its own digital dollars? How does the Fed prevent counterfeit electrons? I have been trying to find an answer to this question for a while now.

[@emerson88ify]

@@michaels4255 I've only just thought of that, what's to stop them double (or more) spending every dollar?

[@mcgugrah]

michael s blockchain.

[@michaels4255]

The comparison of the USD today with gold in the GD would be apt if countries today were maintaining artificially high interest rates in order to attract more USD into their economies, or to prevent the outflow of USD, but is any country actually doing this?

[@kirstinstrand6292]

Nope. Not yet.

[@ziggyelliott8094]

Brilliant gymnastics and monetary economics - but I got totally lost halfway :-) - digesting

[@MoneyEducator]

Thank you. Great conversation. Both the host and guest weaved through macro investment options in a very methodical and understandable way. Even after having an MBA in international finance from Columbia I was not able to understand, until after reading Richebacher letters from several years and reading Doug Noland Credit Bubble Bulletin for over 15 years. As a Muslim we can't invest in interest-bearing instruments, like bonds, options and futures. Instead, I invested on real stuff like Gold, silver, cash, and agricultural land since 2003, expecting that we will go into a dollar crisis in 2008. Now I have a fresh on USD's new lease on life.

[@lessonsfromvillagelife]

You can't invest in bonds because you are a Muslim, well than invest in holy war fought by Taliban in Afghanistan.