The Goldilocks Economy & The Biggest Risk to the Market Right Now - with Josh Brown | Prof G Markets

This week on Prof G Markets, Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth, returns to the show to discuss what’s driving the current bull market and how he’s managing portfolios accordingly. He discusses whether an AI bubble could trigger a recession, and shares why he thinks we’re on the verge of creating more millionaire households than ever before.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Today's number
01:17 - Fundrise ad
01:18 - Today's episode
04:15 - Headlines
16:17 - Fundrise ad
16:19 - The Goldilocks Economy & The Biggest Risk to the Market Right Now - with Josh Brown
16:28 - What is your general read on investor sentiment?
18:15 - Does the market rally have to do with inflation or interest rate cuts?
20:02 - How much do Fed rate cuts matter?
22:39 - Do you see this market rally as cyclical or structural?
26:04 - What do you think of bonds as an investment right now?
29:18 - Have you changed your ratio of stocks to bonds?
30:58 - Is Nvidia’s valuation an indication of a bubble as Cisco was in the late 1990s?
35:25 - Do you see a possibility of a bubble if AI doesn't prove to have the return on investment that companies expect it to?
40:40 - Fundrise ad
40:44 - Could companies’ cutback on labor be the exogenous event that leads to a recession?
45:30 - What is your take on meme stocks and the recent run on GameStop?
48:55 - What do you think the media is missing in the investment markets?
51:28 - What is your advice to graduating seniors?
53:42 - Algebra of Wealth
59:24 - Fundrise ad
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#business #news #tech #finance #stockmarket #profg #scottgalloway #profgmarkets #ai #earnings #stocks #ritholtzwealth #marketportfolio #bullmarket #recession

[@steadfastanddomino]

Josh's advice to make yourself useful is absolutely, 100% right on the nose. If you remember nothing else from this episode, remember that.

[@Unbedingt0815]

I agree it‘s great advice but should come with the addition to always look for more responsibility and knowing your value in negotiations. There are tons of people who got stuck with the shitty tasks.

[@patrickboyer4688]

Wow, Josh was on fire. Love both your shows and especially the collaborations.

[@richardcurley1729]

Josh Brown at his best in this interview, IMHO. Credit to Josh and to the interviewers for that. I will rewatch this in a week or so there are so many good points made.

[@LevelofClarity]

Two videos a week with Prof G and Ed is excellent. Keep up the great work, guys!

[@usazar]

The Compound and Prof. G is a venn diagram of all my financial media consumption

[@Debbie.Burton]

I began working at 18, strived and grew my portfolio to $600k by 33. Recently, lost over 30% and want to mitigate risks. Also, planning to buy a home soon and want my portfolio to grow to a 7-figure ball park i can retire in 9 years. What should I do?

[@HarrisRyan-oy8eo]

I don't think here is the place for personalized investment guidance. However, I suggest consulting with a reliable advisor like Azul to ensure appropriate retirement planning.

[@benitabussell5053]

Adding JEPI and JEPQ is smart for retirement. As for staying committed to low-risk investments, it's all about balancing your risk tolerance with your long-term goals.

[@A_francis]

De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.

[@BenTodd-fl8nv]

I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?

[@A_francis]

*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find her webpage and necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@bradmtb1]

Josh & Scott together...I could listen to them for hours.

[@Gola2844]

Josh is great. Glad to see him in this channel! Thanks guys!!!

[@TUBEDOUT07]

Great point Josh on difference between Nvidia from Cisco stocks! Wow Josh has great market history knowledge!

[@drakeblessum3466]

The #ProfG team is rolling! Keep the videos coming Ed and Scott🎉

[@AsifurRahman957]

Josh has amazing insights

[@5sssnakeee3]

Josh Brown is the most refreshing analyst in the industry. Always real talk.

[@jet4tv]

Josh is a ROCKSTAR!!! Amazing Info and interview guys!!!

[@TordeanRivera]

Always

[@mt5670]

Josh is one of the best and brightest minds on the street. Throws it down Long Island style

[@JongGoh]

Downtown Josh on Prof G? Let me get my cuppa of coffee.

[@haydenr2229]

Great video guys. Loving the substantive discussion and hot takes all around

[@mattinterweb]

Great episode this one.

[@theProfgShowscottgalloway]

Thanks! Take a glimpse at clips and highlights as well.

[@michaelskyros8803]

Just keep buying, DCA for the win.

[@Aziz__0]

is it really worth investing in stocks in 2024, I’ve been on the sidelines watching the market for awhile and it seems to be pretty stagnant to me not that it matters because I’m in it for the long run, but how can one generate actual profit in this current market?

[@leehettig]

Love to 2x week guys. Thank you. Don't love the advertising plugs throughout. One at the beginning, one at the end. fair. But sprinkled throughout is super F**ing annoying. "you can just forward past them" Thing is, so many of us listen to this walking, working, driving etc and cannot easily pull our phone out to just skip past. I really hate that I pay for youtube premium only to get force fed adds by content creators. On the flip side, I could just stop listening to Prog G. So cry me a river I get it. I'll keep listening until the resentment gets too big. Still love the show. Just wish there was another way to monetize.

[@LaRafa7]

Prof G is a GOOONER! Let’s goo!!!

[@robnicholls5827]

Someone has to be...

[@TordeanRivera]

Josh brown never fails to

[@shalombethefire]

Great show and valuable discussions around the market, thanks Scott.

[@sameluckyguy]

Two of my favorites Prof G, DJB

[@kevinl20082008]

DTJB rocks on 🔥

[@SamEbby]

I love Josh Brown

[@missyleger]

Great conversation with Josh!

[@dianedean4170]

🎉💥💫Scott hits the bullseye when he describes the corporate perspective as risk return and take it or leave it when you are at bat for your team.🎉😂❤ I really appreciate Ed's interview skills. Ed is a terrific role model for how to learn and earn🎉😮❤ Josh is describing signals v. noise and we are part of a global network. Americans have a very strong tendency to approach tasks with an athletic push and pull drive including where they can store their money. Investing is a contact sport and other countries are implementing more athletic practices. 😊🎉❤

[@soysauceboy2023]

Josh is the best

[@jonjansky]

Well done, thank you.

[@user-fd1qi2hp4t]

Great content as always

[@sameluckyguy]

Great discussion

[@regi7087]

Prof G is an Arsenal fan, go gunners

[@duskrider1724]

Had anyone beaten the S&P 500 by investing in Fundrise?

[@Wizrady]

Doubt it

[@kyleolson9636]

Of course they have. Plenty of active fund managers have beat the S&P 500, just like plenty of people have won the lottery. A better question would be what are the average returns of fundrise customers. Give all other research on the topic I sincerely doubt they have beaten the S&P 500, especially after fees.

[@NichoD3]

I looked into it about 2 years ago, it never made sense to me and i felt like i could get much better results elsewhere.

[@christianfleury1522]

Statistically 50% should have beaten the average 😊.

[@kyleolson9636]

​@@christianfleury1522 Only if results are normally distributed. If 3 people make $1 and 1 person makes $10, only 25% of them beat the average. And stock market returns are rarely normally distributed. In 2023 72% of S&P 500 companies underperformed the index. The Magnificent 7 tech stocks represented nearly 70% of the entire S&P 500's gains.

[@MrChuckshick]

Great job Josh.

[@donaldjohnson-ow3kq]

Always wondered when shareholders might ask about the role of a CEO who is also CEO of other companies. It would be interesting to see what types of language is in the employee agreements for Tesla that prevents regular workers from moonlighting.

[@LouiseMurray-hy6ek]

Great video guys.

[@joealtamuro]

I like that Josh referenced the Greenspan Briefcase! They would play the song “Mr Big Stuff” while showing him entering the building 😀

[@andrewhart6200]

I hope you will speak on Biden criticizing JP Morgan and the Hidden Fees nonsense - Godspeed to the kids Uncle doing the RIGHT THING!

[@user-io4ud8ke8c]

A great show! love me some Downtown Josh Brown

[@dshephardcomposer]

"Aliens" was a great movie. A thrilling action movie. No doubt at all. However, I disagree with Scott saying it was better than "Alien." The first "Alien" movie was a visionary film that SHOCKED audiences with its terror, its art design, its visuals, its production and of course its directing and cinematography. It was a watershed moment in cinematic history. The scene where John Hurt dies while eating spaghetti still haunts every viewer (including this viewer) to this day. It introduced audiences, for the first time, to one of the greatest "villains" in all of fiction - the alien, the most perfect and terrifying predator imaginable. "Aliens" was a thrilling roller-coaster ride. "Alien" changed cinema forever.

[@kaifjamal6265]

COYG we got PROF G backing us now! Let's win it next season

[@Qambar44]

That line about asking about the dog, and being called one online gave me a good chuckle 😂

[@1daves]

This is brilliant advice from Josh. I genuinely worry about my peers who haven’t got this message; become owners of assets as fast as you can or be left behind. It’s an emergency.

[@kolakowski345]

Succinct description of Teslas response there Ed 😂

[@kurtnunn6116]

I thought Cisco was bulletproof back then

[@alexanderm7076]

Great choice in football as well! Big up, Prof G.

[@sandiloumac2778]

Best quote: "Chris Hemsworth. He’s really handsome. They brought up the entire cast in front of the audience. Standing next to him they all looked like defects. They all looked like the factory is supposed to produce “him”. And they produce these things that you have to send back to the factory."

[@JeffreyGSmith]

What microphones do you two use? Thanks.

[@user-si2jt2nk7g]

If you're looking for short term opportunities i would recommend you speak with Sam an advisor who has a good idea of stocks.

[@JoeDoe2]

Grandmothers can't watch this video due to the potty mouths.

[@jreynoso91]

"Sooo, what movies did you see, Scott." 😂

[@arod2050]

Fundrise should reconsider supporting this episode 😂

[@nocheesecheesy6096]

How was the DJ show?

[@ACPeoples]

11:38 Those openAi deals are legal settlements pretending to be partnerships

[@VegasVaron]

Few people remember that Alan Greenspan triggered the Dot Com bust by hiking interest rates beyond what was called for. This is hindsight of course, but Greenspan should have known better.

[@charles14153]

Not sure why the market professionals have no love for forward guidance. Markets are much calmer when we know what’s coming and how the Fed intends to move.

[@hellofranky99]

Hold up. Y2K problems were only averted because companies spent many many millions of dollars updating their system and code base to account for the timestamp problem.

[@yoda6051]

Great Guest, but AMC took 4-5 months to unfold in 2021

[@IanJames56]

Pay me to watch boys!

[@vishalontheline]

Quite the roundabout way of calling dogs unattractive 😂... only kidding. Great show! Thank you!

[@achinj]

was Josh reading the responses?

[@polish2x91]

So price moves by what, if sentiment doesn’t lead? Makes no sense we’d either follow price to 0 or infinity

[@Sumonebody]

It doesn’t matter rooting for the economy or not. It won’t listen!

[@LumenMichaelOne]

17:54 ... Palo Alto. Something about billings rather than guidance, but they took one on the chin kinda like that.

[@renatoforenza3199]

yes 20:30

[@Brayness]

EWZ (MSCI Brazil ETF) is down 11.5% YTD

[@donaldjohnson-ow3kq]

I thought $11600 was going to be mentioned as the price of a 1st class ticket on the upper deck of a Lufthansa 747 between the U.S. and London.

[@guyinshirt_]

#freecharles!!!!

[@chrism.1131]

51:40 just for the record… Scott's advice is to buy Cisco.😂

[@barfly1984]

So nifty language apps and chat bots in't a bubble?

[@S1rrus]

Why this market is perhaps an incestual perpetual motion machine is precisely why I follow this 🤣Josh out-Scott-ed Scott on this one.

[@seunjoong]

AI - seriously it's the SAME THING every time, and EVERY TIME they say it's different.

[@varunkannan-er2vl]

Vc scheme game was BSD

[@mikeh7515]

Boo ads for YT premium. Boooooo

[@SamHoustonSF]

How do you expect them to make money with no ads?

[@ChrisBrennanNJ]

LOL! Ed, just so you know-- you're role here is to ask more about *Scott!*

[@MichaelLaFrance1]

The exogenous market-rocking shock could be a CCP invasion of Taiwan, which would wipe out advanced chip manufacturing, along with Nvidia. edit: I didn't realize when I wrote this comment that China conducted a full-scale invasion exercise, without warning, on Taiwan this morning. Hopefully they limit their efforts in the near and midterm to saber-rattling. Losing advanced chips would seriously damage the US economy.

[@makaveli3900]

It’s shocking that people who spend this much time monitoring markets and the economy make no reference to the ongoing debt spiral and wartime level spending despite full employment. Really it makes no sense to soften monetary policy as trillions in federal debt rolls over at higher rates? At least give the complete picture

[@JaneDoe-rn4tm]

josh is fucking awesome

[@Poochie1]

Professor, Brazil is the only market down YTD......

[@Poochie1]

Also, smart money is underweight bonds. It will be a bad investment for the next decade.

[@Poochie1]

Also Josh is wrong about that Y2K. Everybody needed servers because of the internet boom. Today everybody needs chips because of the AI boom. Its exactly the same capex bubble ffs.

[@user-kg1od9es5d]

@@Poochie1 yep

[@richardjones2168]

So let’s see, less and less firms are going or staying public …but everyone’s got to be an owner …seems to be a bit of a disconnect on that one

[@Traderbear]

Why can’t we look at the horrible job tech has done with social media and demand better from AI guard rails.

[@forklaundry]

Why wasn't I listening to this 20 years ago?

[@rburnettcpa]

My wingman used to tell me NOT to be myself on a first date. Also Huberman says get dopamine from doing the hard work, not the result.

[@justinewert2166]

What a great combo 👏👏👏

[@andrewhart6200]

Comon the Chels!!!!!!!!! COMON YOU BLUES!

[@winddude9]

Josh Brown, not too bright on sentiment is he, or not looking at the right sentiment.

[@bondi5000]

Only $11,600 per year?? Try Australia at AUD35,000!!!

[@endofquoterepeattheline7516]

You understand the currencies aren’t 1-1 right? Lol

[@JoeDoe2]

There's no such thing as an 'air pocket' but he keeps using that term as if there is.

[@andrewhart6200]

How many of the podcasts(1.7 million) are profitable - but also...how many of the 1.7 million podcasts are in the United States....slight market saturation....

[@a0abes]

I'd like to challenge Josh... having been in the 00's crash (and got laid off). I propose that: If there's sufficient employment and/or state tax revenue tied to the AI boom (think prompt engineers...) then an nvidia triggered stock/valuation crash can have drastic effects on real economy. Some supporting evidence: see CA's budget surplus melt away in '22 and NYC's in '23.... true, that partly was triggered by real economy, but also due to slumping tax revenue on the incomes from high tech(CA) or finance(NYC) employees Prove me wrong!

[@a0abes]

to be clear - I love Josh's perspective and appreciate it whenever and wherever I can get it (e.g. cnbc)

[@user-kg1od9es5d]

No youre missing a bigger point. AI is an efficiency innovation - what happens to all the folks who jobs now get replaced by AI? Lol. Disruption creates jobs. Efficiency destroys them! There has to be a disruptive innovation to counter the efficiency or all hell will break loose.

[@BaccaratDegen]

I remember y2k like it was yesterday because it was my HS graduation year. I remember the panic and fear around the markets and it probably steered me away from finance because of it. And then there was (911).

[@JeffreyGillespie]

I’m Gen X. $11,600 a year is more than my entire condo mortgage and property taxes in Albuquerque NM. I just don’t know how people afford children anymore.

[@mrpross]

Greenspan said the size of his briefcase just depended on whether or not he brought lunch from him that day.

[@ZeCarlosBr]

Brazil is not in a rally. Much the other way around... goint to a quite deep hole...

[@donaldjohnson-ow3kq]

GDP includes imputed rent. If you own your home but were paying yourself rent or renting it out, this is the amount you would charge. As home prices increase, that amount increases. People may not care, but GDP includes that magical amount as fake economic activity. Which is why there is an increasing disconnect between GDP and the real economy.

[@louiseobrien2010]

The Federal Reserve will cut rates 25 basis point in December 2024.

[@dosesandmimoses]

Are LLMs protected by the first amendment? Why is no one directly asking that question? Also, Prof, try a blended Miami Vice… delicious drink!

[@neilmoran9988]

A megalomaniac who isn't a good person, Elon can't silence you Scott. ED, great to see that your Uncle has integrity, remember this for future Ed.

[@JoeDoe2]

Scott would make a good guitar player cause his fingers are so long and skinny.