The Great Transformation [Part 3] - The

[@Biftizmo]

I been following tony for a decade..still feel like I’m one of the privileged few…I try to tell people but they still think I’m an alarmist ..🤦‍♂️ this revolution is gonna wake a lot of people up suddenly.. looking forward to this.nice one tony..👍👍👍

[@mgv7499]

Agreed. I was so happy to discover him on one of Steven Mark Riley’s videos. I tried to share, but people just aren’t interested. So disappointing, I could listen to him for hours

[@PauloSamurai]

Pessimism is ignorance

[@Biftizmo]

@@PauloSamurai ha I get accused of that often ..but I’ve always been optimistic it’s the way I am…

[@PatrikSteal]

@@mgv7499 who in gods name is Steven mark Riley lol

[@filmagnoli]

Love his talks, I try to share them with people that I know are interested and on various platforms

[@schonezukunft607]

Every single politician on the world should see this video. Period. Thank you for your great work!

[@markthomasson5077]

They have…..but they need the £££ from Big Oil to stay in power.

[@duffgaryduff]

Listening to Tony Seba talk back in 2015 was the reason I bet the family farm on Tesla. It is going to be a bright future…!

[@sk.n.9302]

Have been following Tony since 2016. So far, all on point.

[@danadurnfordkevinblanchdebunk]

Not a thing in this presentation was accurate. He completely falls flat on the storage issue, and without proper storage, solar is a major burden on the grid. Ask Germany and California.

[@MultiThibor]

@@danadurnfordkevinblanchdebunk You are absolute right, SWB is crap when you have to face a 'Dunkelflaute', 2 - 3 weeks in winter without sun and wind. No one would overbuild an energy system to meet such challenges. All these mega forecasts simply ignore basic principles of engineering and come from IT guys who compare the virtual world (where almost everything is possible) with the real world with physical limitations. The war in Ukraine, increased interest rates and expensive raw materials (cement and steel - needed in huge quantities for wind energy!) may cause the end for many subsidised energy projects. Poland and the Czech republic have installed phase shifting transformers on the grid coupling towards Germany to protect their 400 kV grid from German wind 'superpower' because these grids were never designed to cope with such loads. How long (and how much!) would it cost these countries to upgrade the 400 kV transmission system to handle the double or tripple load? 10 years? 15 years? 20 years? Germany has driven its 'Energiewende' for 23 years now and the results are quite disappointing. France: 50 to 80 g CO2/kWh Germany: 434 g CO2/kWh France is upgrading their older reactor to run up to 60, possibly up to 80 years! The amount of steel and cement is minimal compared to wind energy. Older windfarms are ready for decomission after the feed-in contract ends (after 20 years) and will meet a demolition master. They can't be operated with a profit if the electricity is sold at a market price. High energy prices, the rising AfD (alternative for Germany) and other issues will probably end the project 'Energiewende' (energy transition). Tony Seba will probably end like many future analysts - they disappear into oblivion. Prof. Philip Tetlock has analized 82.000 future predictions between 1987 and 2003 and found out: Future prediction does not work.

[@bobdyck8508]

What an amazing future we have. Thank you so very much for your fabulous presentation.

[@Ample17]

Only if you are rich. Otherwise you'll get the short end of the stick as always.

[@quiriousone8270]

@@Ample17 how so? It already costs $0 out of pocket to put solar on your home and you will save money every month.

[@Ample17]

@@quiriousone8270 ERM where I live it's very expensive. We are talking 25-50k I believe. Definatly far from zero. And the bureaucratic hurdles are insane.

[@quiriousone8270]

@@Ample17 I didn’t say it costs $0. It’s $0 out of pocket which means the solar company will pull permits, for the engineering blueprints, install and activate the system all before you make a payment. You just start paying a monthly fee until the loan is paid off. And your loan will be cheaper than your prior energy bill.

[@nickcruz8748]

Looking forward to part III more than I am Christmas

[@ramblerandy2397]

Tony Seba extrapolating and further extrapolating the details. Explaining the almost endless possibilities of when power becomes so cheap it's almost free. And practically none of it can be held hostage by oil companies, aggressive nations and inevitable wars. Isn't that a liberating thought and what we've been waiting for all along?

[@vikramganasen]

What we need is one of the G7 nation to be fully transform itself to be dependent on solar for its 100% energy needs and that would be a game changer and will bring forth the multiplier effect like how Tesla did with its BEV.

[@Biftizmo]

Defence from adversaries 👌

[@bjephcott1]

A groundbreaking and historic presentation that every politician, economist and entrepreneur should watch and understand. The first question they will ask is are the cost curve projections robust, so far everything Tony has predicted has been very accurate. The effects of intermittent but superabundant, marginal cost zero energy will be profound: power grids will soon become pointless outside city centres and heavy industry, in the long term for heavy industry too, which will tend to relocate to the sunniest or windiest places. New nuclear power projects with fixed cost contracts should all be abandoned. National priorities should be to secure a slice of battery production capacity at or near the cutting edge of falling costs, and scale up solar and wind capacity quickly. Desalination will transform coastal desert economies and ecosystems. Legislation controlling LED light pollution even more urgent as floodlights will be free. Mined cryptocurrency will boom. Electric scooters and bikes and autonomous frequent buses or battery-powered trams best transport solution for denser towns than cars, even robotaxis are space inefficient. Metro for inner cities, high speed rail for medium / long distance corridors. The congestion threat from marginal cost near zero EVs, autonomous or not, will need a policy response. The Netherlands already shows what you can do with bikes, they are going to get cheaper and hills won’t matter. The implications go on and on, and on. Food for thought.

[@josephlammardo]

Brilliant comments about not being held hostage.

[@tomcrouchman]

Genius. Nothing more to say.

[@cannonskier]

Definite Genius. I have been following Tony for a long time. He is a “Technology Nostradamus “

[@Naeddyr]

I know the purpose of this presentation isn't, and shouldn't be, to help with my mental health, but I've had my first real experiences with climate anxiety this year and I've been trying to find a way out of spiralling into despair, and watching these videos has really helped to give me hope for the future. Thank you.

[@suicune2001]

You're not the only one. It's been rough for me the last few months. This has helped considerably.

[@MrZygmuncik]

Climate anxiety HAHAHAHAHAAHAHA, dont you have real problems there?

[@pd2152]

Don't be Woke and you won't have a made up anxietes

[@carlosm6036]

Such a positive message for humanity

[@sonnymoon9721]

The world is waking up thanks to you Tony. The turning point when enough people have this message clearly intact is approaching ! And there is no turning back thank God ! Generation On Demand !

[@chadwickyang7885]

I have just discovered Tony Seba today via and thanks to The Electric Viking. Such a great and valuable presentation !

[@johnnyfootball7658]

Mind blowing presentation, every politician/decision maker should be made aware of Tony Seba's presentation. Super Power is mind blowing, i.e. it will change the world for the better!!!

[@garymenezes6888]

Tony, you should have called the series "I told you so..."

[@rogerstarkey5390]

Should I point out the Tesla impact report? (Paraphrasing.... Page 5?) "Between 2012 and 202, Tesla Solar (sold?) Produced substantially more energy than was used by all Tesla factories, and all other Tesla facilities, *and* by all charging of all Tesla vehicles over that period" . It's a perfect demonstration of the fact. Tesla "Superpowered"

[@peterkratoska4524]

and yet, Solar City was unprofitable and needed to be bailed out by Musk using Tesla money (to the howls of investors) who is incidentally the cousin of Solar City founders.

[@jakubiskra523]

No, the energy produced and consumed is mostly equal.

[@tabbott429]

Ive had a 3.5KW DIY solar setup since 2014. Ive never been without power for my appliances when the grid goes down. I recently upgraded from Lead acid to LIFEPO batteries and get even better capacity. Solar just makes sense as its also near zero maintenance.

[@tabbott429]

@@денисбаженов-щ1б My batteries are indoors so they dont get cold.

[@ericdew2021]

Predictions from 2010: nailed it!

[@rogerstarkey5390]

Even allowing for geopolitical and "other" issues. Impressive.

[@jayrudo6280]

Had a guy come to my house to quote me on roof top solar. Said with financing it would be $80k to cover me for a $300 month electric bill. No batteries. Even with the subsidy it would take 20 years to pay for without any problems/repairs/degradation of panels. If someone could do it for 25K cash I would put panels on my house. 80k is crazy.

[@Kynareth6]

Crazy expensive. I don't know where you live, but it's not as expensive where I live.

[@solartime8983]

Best to think of building your own power plant using the forever free fuel source on your own property which Will pay for itself. Your utility Energy BillS will Never be paid off!! They will just Increase at utility rate Inflation...and the Bills will be due til you die. Owning a Solar PV system is the best investment for a biz or homeowner because it Eliminates rising utility electric costs. Once, it may be a decade+, yourowned plant install cost, is paid off PV power sys. will be PAYING YOU monthly (becomes a Positive Cash flow to you!) ...since the then even Higher utility bill you Would be paying...is Gone!! A hundred dollars not spent is a hundred $$$ Saved & that money still in your bank account🌻🌅🗽

[@aaronsinspirationdaily4896]

Same system in Australia would be $6k. With 40Wh of batteries still less than $40k. Time to move countries brother. You’d love it here.

[@ejbh3160]

Tony has been proven right time & time again. I first stumbled across his work about a decade ago & as someone already involved with a community energy project, the numbers immediately made sense to me... sadly my fellow project workers thought I was mad & even after watching him, they didn't get it. Yet here we are a decade later and everything he predicted back then, has happened on schedule.

[@shakti_pattanaik01]

These presentations are gold ❤

[@ment.4606]

Such a legendary presentation sir. This video, in the next 10 years will be even more legendary. A prior presentation a year ago about SWB super power is already amazing but given analyses of just 3 states of the U.S. may not meaningful enough in my opinion but analyses in a scale of countries like what you do now is very meaningful to me now. Good analogy on AWS too. The future of energy is clean energy, UNDOUBTEDLY.

[@nickcruz8748]

The absolute GOAT. Thank you for posting this series.

[@CharlieRickman]

Off-grid for 8 years solar batteries. Tony speaks facts here.

[@matter45]

Offgrid for 3 years. Loving it too!

[@grahamsargeant]

This presentation is clear SOLAR+ BATERIES will LOWER THE COST OF EVERY THING,

[@richardteychenne3950]

Beautiful Tony. While I have been following you for over a decade and you have said everything here before this is a really well paced extraction and presentation. What is so impressive is your earnest measured style without the use of technical words makes it understandable to a wide audience.👍

[@carydebest361]

Thank you Tony for showing the world the way to sustainable energy and prosperity for everyone

[@aknorth1053]

As an electrical engineer this is an exciting time, good job security

[@kurtniznik8116]

I'm curious. At the ~15m mark he is saying Germany can do it but currently Germany just went back to burning coal after their solar and wind capacity, rated at ~200% of peak demand needs, failed to supply the necessary power. Is the difference all down to storage?

[@Chainyanker007]

Most likely the answer is yes. There is not enough utility scale storage in many places including Germany. As battery prices keep dropping massive battery storage units will drop in price and also be able to hold more energy as energy density also increases in those newer batteries. Currently Tesla produces Megapacks at their new factory in Lathrop, California. They have a two year backlog. Tesla also recently announced they are building another Megapack factory in Shanghai due to start production in 4 qtr 2024 also with a 10,000 unit/year capacity like the Calif. factory.

[@hg6996]

Have you heard of the invasion into Ukraine and what it meant for the German gas supply?

[@albertmasserra643]

Thank you to you, Tony. You rock

[@UnterBlog]

Look at Germany, we are collapsing with Superpower 😢 The grid is one major factor. We have up to three weeks in winter without sun and without wind. Nobody can pay the batteries needed.

[@hg6996]

Actually wind is the strongest in winter, at least in Germany. There is also biofuel. Biofuel has to fill the gaps when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine.

[@LifeLongLearner-om8jx]

The batteries at grid level are incredibly affordable. So if you’re having issues in Germany then blame your politicians for failing at their jobs

[@UnterBlog]

@@hg6996 Biofuel is just a mere drop in the ocean. I do not reject Superpower. We run three EVs, have two solar generators on the roof (27kWp, 22kWp) and run two house batteries @ 39kWh and 42kWh. But north of the 35th parallel you need nuclear power for the winter.

[@hg6996]

@@UnterBlog Bekanntermaßen ist die Atomkraft in Deutschland keine Option mehr. Überdies ist sie eine endliche Ressource, die so viele Nachteile birgt, dass sie niemand mehr will. Man muss ja nur nach Frankreich gucken. Flamanville ist dasselbe finanzielle Desaster wie es in Finnland Olkiluoto und in der UK Hinkley Point C sind.

[@Gary-ec4lc]

This is the reason I am fully invested with confidence in the renewable space many years ago , very happy with my selection….brilliant as usual , thanks

[@DaBooster]

Excellent video

[@CarComparos]

The only disappointment is only 84,000 humans have watched this video as on 28th January 2025

[@TwistedRF]

Could someone please help me answer the following questions: 1. What happened if there is no, or very little sun for many weeks? Caused by I.a a rare weather phenomenon or volcanic eruption? Would we need a fossil fuel back-up plant? 2. Has he considered the shortage of rare earth materials used for battery production which we are likely to meet around mid decade? Thanks

[@Tbell550]

You must have some base load power, coal, nat gas or nuclear. Large scale battery storage is not available yet.

[@RockyMountainTesla]

Not rare earths but battery metals: Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, Graphite, 100’s of mines needed. Expecting it to happen, but still waiting for the first BIG catalyst. Something like Tesla becoming a big time battery metals miner, as Musk just announced in an interview with Ron Barron.

[@inber]

I guess this would be the Alaska alternative. I live in Sweden, which have a climate similar to Alaska, and during a winter month such as December the output from my solar panels is less than 10 % of the summer output. It’s nothing. And often, there is no wind. I am an admirer of Tony Sheba’s work, but for other parts of the world than sunny Texas, I don’t see any realism in wind, solar and batteries only. The power system needs additional sources such as hydropower or nuclear power. Plus the stability that large, rotating, heavy turbines give which is essential to keep the frequency stable.

[@Gallardo6669]

Lets see if we ever get to spend only 1cent per kilowatt-hour. Maybe, but then 1$ on delivery and distribution 🤣🤣🤣😎 Our people in power always want to milk us!

[@Gallardo6669]

@@yomanyo327 i have more solar on the roof than others. I have ev's. Soon i pay tax per driven mile like everyone else... You get it?

[@justforthehackofit]

shout out to SMR who is sure to join us here

[@frankowot4]

Tony Seba: Texas can power itself Greg Abbott: but, but, but, oil...

[@alfs3]

So glad to see part 2 and 3 drop so quickly - thank you Tony!

[@MrDuncanBooth]

Thanks Tony

[@leesweehuat]

Why is electricity prices still going up tremendously during the past 6 months, when solar power is so cheap? What are the key reasons for this to happen? Expensive electricity storage required for solar power? Inadequate or expensive electricity storage? Monopoly by utilities? 3-5 fold excess solar & wind power with battery storage currently provide the least cost electricity generation, due to the current high cost electricity storage. The current high electricity prices, despite very low solar electricity cost is puzzling to me.

[@mozit6]

Maybe it's just greed, covid and war related supply chain factors raise prices of goods/services so Utility companies join the bandwagon without adequate reason or explanation.

[@biofueler]

Amazing!😊

[@radiobar1634]

Tony absolutely gets it.

[@manikandangovindarajan8930]

Thank You Sir for your insightfull analysis fVery very interesting information about full energy sector transfermation In the future to solar wind battery From your own words I add for US 90 hrs back up we can use the car fully charged electric car as backup For emergency travel use cheap taxi taxi for the few days of poor sunlight Or apply leave to office !!!!! Or work from home 🏠 We can charge the car also with the capitive power plant with zero running cost

[@Yanquetino]

Tony hits the nail on the head: we have the technology to mitigate the climate crisis, we only lack the political will to implement it. C'mon, world leaders: tell the petrol "pushers" what they can do with their "drug."

[@40watt_club]

Value per minute .... ty Tony you are gorgeous info

[@kbmblizz1940]

Tony post a vid, I drop everything, watch it at least twice. Annoy my friends by sharing, who cares, they'll thank me 5 yrs from now.

[@johnbirk843]

Here in Antigua Barbuda we have discovered that Sunshine is cheaper than gasoline and we have no shortage of sunshine. Scientia Non Domus, (Knowledge Has No Home) antiguajohn

[@reganovich]

peace from Ireland brother!

[@adamesd3699]

Man, I’ve only started watching Tony Seba. Now I’m binge-watching his presentations. I wish I had known about him earlier. Shout out to Electric Viking for clueing me onto Tony.

[@michaelmaag3098]

In Germany we are building new liquified gas infrastructure....

[@huck7finn]

If unsubsidized, solar is half the cost of coal, then why after shopping three companies, it's $55k cash (or $76k loan financed for 20 years) for a system (27.5kW size producing 28.9kW annually, NO battery storage) for which the sun will produce only 40% of my December consumption, while producing 250% in June. That is the system we ARE installing in early 2023. It provides a 4-6% IRR WITH the 30% credit -- a huge negative return without the credit, which is a terrible allocation of capital either way. We're doing it because we care about the environment. An entire region would be subjected to the same equation, because it gets the same sun, and wind in Kentucky is hardly capable of putting a dent into winter production, according to all the folks who sell turbines and tell me my production expectations in one of the most ideal locations should be very low. So my house scales to represent my region from a production-consumption standpoint (please explain if you think that is incorrect), which means, my house system would need to be 250% the size, AND require storage (our system would be about $175k cash, $241k financed). Our region therefore would need capacity to produce about 500-600% in our best months to cover our worst. So either Tony's claims are totally bogus/misrepresented, OR the immoral dirty energy companies are FAR more fair on pricing than clean energy companies. With battery backup, a self-sustaining system in this region is 400-500% times the cost of coal as an end consumer, not 50% LESS than the cost of coal as he claims. Someone has a lot of explaining to do if the costs should be 10-20% of what's being offered to home owners. That is a 500-1000% markup. A CASH price for the right sized system, installed, and serviced would cover 48.6 years of my dirty coal. Who wants to pay for a lifetime of energy, upfront??? Green washing? Or solar isn't ready yet?

[@bluebiplane]

The unsubsidized solar is a utility scale calculation, not residential rooftop/groundmount financials based. I think the assumption that 'An entire region would be subject to the same equation..." may therefore be inaccurate. Check your numbers re '27.5kw producing 28.5kw annually' as they don't seem to make sense. Production is in kWh not kw. Our 16.6kw system produced 56.8kWh in just one November day last week. I expect you know of and will be benefiting from Net-metering. If so, the grid is acting as your energy 'bank' except during grid outages. Your 250% June production will be supporting your 40% Dec production. It's almost like having an off-site battery but not quite. Your solar production, regardless of the time of year, is ultimately benefiting the grid. Is your system sized to include annual energy needed for EVs? The pay off is greatly accelerated when marrying solar and EVs. Our 16.6kw system has already paid for itself in just a few years' time, we are not subject to energy or gasoline price fluctuations and the system has another 20+ years of free service. One could say we paid for our energy upfront and we are also reaping the benefits financially while contributing to the clean energy disruption future.

[@huck7finn]

@@bluebiplane thanks for the response! I'll response to your points/questions 1. Good call on the system size and production, I had mistakes on it. Our system size will be 23.4 kW and it is predicted to produce 28,873 kW hours (kWh). That's an average of 79.1 kWh per day . . . probably 110 kWh/day in the summer and 50 kWh/day in winter. This is in Kentucky, with a completely unobstructed ground mount. Where are you located? Your array size to production is more favorable. 2. Totally understand the net metering. Again, with 30% credit (which will take me two years) and a 15 year 0.99% financing, the IRR is between 4 and 6%. If I paid cash, my payback period would be 13+ years. Hardly a responsible financial investment, especially considering this is not a risk-free investment. A 10-15% hurdle would be more appropriate. This works because of creative financing gimmicks. It only makes sense to me, because I intend to pocket the credits, which means I'm borrowing money for 15 years at 0.99% -- that's a no brainer. Without that, this is basically a wash and a donation to cleaner air. By the way, my assumption assumes my net metering is $1 for $1 (practically unheard of), so the most favorable scenario. There is risk that that does not sustain, which makes sense, because someone has to pay to upkeep the grid since my huge investment is far too small to be self-sustaining. The angle I'm approaching this from is questioning Tony's 100% claim, which means net metering doesn't apply exactly the same -- there's no coal to subsidize the system at night and in the winter, which is why net metering works. Coal produces consistently and predictably every day of the year. If every consumer did what I did, and created a 100% solar grid, we'd only have 40% of the power we needed in December. Every consumer in my region is subjected to the same production-consumption calculation, and the array must cover the dynamic in December, when consumption is twice as high and production is twice as low than in June. This means there must exist 58.5 kW in the grid, plus storage to cover fluctations, to provide for my needs in December. That array is 250% larger than the one I am about to purchase, PLUS, battery storage (Tony says 30-90 hours -- I say he's never experienced a week of rain). Since every consumer in my region has the same sun, my array production is a proxy model that can be scaled for any size and any number of consumers in it -- in December, there is not excess production anywhere, because there's no extra sun anywhere, and we can't store the excess from June, the way a credit on my bill from summer solar production can purchase kWh of coal production in the winter. [Based on my research, wind is not a big enough factor in my region (2-5%), so let's just focus on solar and battery only.] If (big IF?) the regional system has the same pricing that I do, this model is prohibitively expensive, and inefficient -- where does all the excess summer energy go when we only have 1-3 days of storage and we're producing multiples of what we need? So from a practical, boots on the ground perspective, how is the claim being made that solar is 1/2 the cost of coal, when the economics being subjected to consumers suggest that a 100% independent system would be twice the cost of coal, and wind can't explain this 400% discrepancy. I'm very curious to see the details and assumptions behind Tony's calculations per kWh. Something is not translating to the real world. If this were true, the demand for solar would be spiking . . . and we'd quickly create a supply imbalance until prices closed in on the competing resources (in which case, he claim could never really be true). Right now, I posture that prices are TWICE that of coal for a consumer -- they are for me. So something in Tony's figures is vastly different as an end consumer, and end consumers make the decisions. If it's not true for us, then it's not true. Maybe this is like arguing mass vs weight with a physicist -- they say it's different, but for people on Earth, it's not. If Tony is correct at some theoretical level, then my suspicion is the financers and installers are inflating prices to create a 10, 15 or 20-year model that makes consumers save a bit more than their monthly bill, bundle it with the summation of 30 years of savings and lots of pretty pictures and it sounds like a deal -- net metering is quite a used-car salesmen business. The value of my savings in year 30 has an NPV of about $0. Why else would a cash price be $50k to the installer and a financed price be $75k to the installer. Huh??? . . . someone's getting a kickback? If Tony is stating facts at some level, then some entities are really sticking to early adopters, who in my region must rely on coal, and the % of solar cannot exceed 20% of the grid, because anything over that amount and there's nothing left for the energy company to buy from you in June and not enough production in the winter without scaling the coal. 3. We have not gone to EV yet. I'm not sure when we'll get to that point -- I haven't done that math in about 10 years when gas was about $2/gal, but imagine it's a lot different with diesel at $5/gal and gas at $4/gal. We drive about 30k miles per year, averaging about 25 mpg, so figure we buy 1,200 gallons . . . which is about $300-400/month (in comparison, our electricity bill avgs about $300). The EPA says a gallon of gas is 33.7 kWh. I'd have to produce 40,440 more kWh (on top of 28,873) . . . that sounds like a razor thin return. Although, I don't know if 1,200 gallons from old cars translates 1:1 to new EVs. If I used 30 mpg or 35 mpg things look better . . . on the margin, higher returns than I can get from the system I'm buying for the house. 4. Bonus material: :) All the experts and salespeople say a wind turbine is a waste of my money here at the top of a hill in KY, but I will be getting one anyway . . . in the name of science and curiosity, but my expectations are that I'll be throwing money away.

[@jarnorajahalme28]

EVs are about 5x more efficient, so your car energy use would be closer to 8000 kWH.

[@my2cents395]

The Greedy are not going to share. On energy bills now there are charges that are not for energy. In the summer my gas bill is 80% non gas charges and 20% gas. If electricity was free people would not use other polluting types of energy. Places that import oil and gas have the most to gain by going Solar.

[@GershonBenYitzhak]

$.01/kwh is insane. That's like filling up your Tesla for half a dollar.

[@allblooz]

You're right, it is insane, because it will never happen. I'm old enough to remember when nuclear energy was promoted as being able to provide power that would be too cheap to meter.

[@olepetersen3554]

Here in Denmark we have periods, when wind and solar delivers so much energy, the the cost for the actual kWh is negative. So expanding that capacity as Tony describes seems like a no-brainer. Excellent video. Using batteries is not the only way to store the excess energy. I got the following off ChatGPT: Flow batteries, also known as redox flow batteries, are a type of rechargeable battery that stores energy in two separate liquid electrolytes. Here's a detailed explanation of how they work: ### Components and Structure 1. **Two separate electrolyte tanks:** - Flow batteries have two separate tanks, each filled with a liquid electrolyte. One tank contains an electrolyte with a positively charged redox pair (e.g., Vanadium(V)), while the other contains an electrolyte with a negatively charged redox pair (e.g., Vanadium(II)). 2. **Electrolyte cells:** - Between the two tanks, there are a series of cells where the energy conversion takes place. These cells consist of two halves separated by an ion-selective membrane. 3. **Ion-selective membrane:** - The membrane allows specific ions to pass through, maintaining the charge balance while keeping the two electrolytes separated. 4. **Pumps:** - Pumps are used to circulate the liquid electrolytes from the tanks through the cells and back to the tanks. ### Operating Principle 1. **Charging:** - During charging, an electric current is passed through the cells, causing a redox reaction in the electrolytes. This reaction changes the chemical energy in the electrolytes to electrical energy. The positive electrolyte is oxidized, and the negative electrolyte is reduced. 2. **Discharging:** - During discharging, the reverse process occurs. Electrolytes are pumped again through the cells, but this time, the stored chemical energy is released as electrical energy. The positive electrolyte is reduced, and the negative electrolyte is oxidized. ### Advantages of Flow Batteries - **Scalability:** - The energy capacity can be easily scaled by increasing the size of the electrolyte tanks without changing the number or size of the cells. This makes flow batteries ideal for large-scale energy storage. - **Long lifespan:** - Flow batteries can have very long lifespans because the chemical reactions occur in the liquid electrolytes, which can be easily replaced or regenerated. - **Safety:** - Since the energy is stored in liquid form outside the cells, the risk of thermal runaway or fire is much lower compared to traditional batteries. - **Quick response:** - They can respond quickly to changes in load and can deliver large amounts of energy in a short time. ### Challenges - **Complexity:** - The system requires pumps and pipes to circulate the electrolytes, which can make installation and maintenance more complex. - **Cost:** - The costs of materials and system components can be high, although the cost per energy unit can be lower on a large scale. Flow batteries represent a promising technology for future energy storage, especially in grids with a high share of renewable energy sources, where flexibility and large energy capacity are crucial.

[@prins424]

Solar capacity in winter is very low. You need months of storage, not a couple of days. Or maybe that was somehow accounted for in your calculations in which case it is rather strange that you didn't discuss it. Either way, it makes this proposal very dubious at best.

[@gilian2587]

I'm not quite sure that it makes sense given my understanding of the cost of energy storage either. The cost of energy storage is very high.

[@prins424]

@@gilian2587 Exactly, so might be worth mentioning it in this talk. He did talk about it in other presentations, but I don't remember it being convincing.

[@gilian2587]

@@prins424 I have seen charts that show the cost of Lithium Ion Battery storage went from $7500 per kWh in 1991 down to it's current value of $151 per kWh in 2023. If it drops to be less than $10 per kWh -- that would be a breakpoint where wind-solar-battery storage systems will start to be cost competitive with coal, natural gas, and nuclear power.

[@sonnymoon6465]

Thank you so much Tony ! Of course you know this, but, I promise that everything you say here will be exceeded and the line will be much steeper than even what we've fathomed so far ! First time in history and may it be forever this time. And of course, it will be !

[@qwazy01]

Ty for this and your other series on disruption Seba. Can you share any information on the impact upcoming labour disruption (bots) will have and what the timelines for this may take place? My concern is, if the past is any indicator, ie. cars replacing horses. Then I'm wondering what is to become of people when bots replace humans in a meaningful capacity to the economy, ie. 80%+ of all work is performed by bots. I will be very interested to hear your take on this disruption inparticular as it seems to be approaching fast from the horizon.

[@jamespkinsella5018]

Yes, it's amazing and the government's have to weaned off the perks for not doing. The planning laws designed and forced by the corporations would have to change. And stop subsiding oil, that's still happening in tricky ways. So individual house owners can start and not on roofs if possible as then there's maintenance costs.

[@VRVitaly]

this could be the greatest video ever.

[@runeoveras3966]

Thank you Tony. 🙏🏻

[@McClarinJ]

Hi Tony, There's a problem. An average solar panel of two square meters in size is said to use about 20 grams of silver. It has been estimated that a solar panel field 100 miles square would be needed to supply just the United States with 100% solar energy. There are 1,609.34 meters in a mile so, doing the math, that much solar panel area would require 258,997.52 tonnes of silver. However, global annual production of silver is only 26,900 tonnes. This tells me we will need to replace silver as a solar panel conductor with something else. Graphene comes to mind but we are years away from having cheap graphene produced at scale.

[@gilian2587]

Copper?

[@trent_carter]

Brilliant as always. I’m not sure you need to pat yourself on the back so often, but it is deserved.

[@larsnystrom6698]

The price of electrisity would fall as the production increases. That means the investments becomes less profitable. At some point the investments become negligible. I think that point is well below super-capacity! Battery storage is the bottleneck. The build up will therefore take longer than a rough calculation says. And theres a competition with BEVs for batteries. Battery prices therefore won't fall as predicted. One way to get overcapacity, especially in battery storage, would be to price electricity higher when battery capacity is diminished.

[@richardstubbs6484]

Surplus electricity can be used for heating buildings (heat pumps)

[@eclecticcyclist]

This of course applies only to electricit production, grid electriciy prices are a completely different field. Wholesale grid price is dependant on the most expensive poducer on the grid at any time. the instantaneous grid pice is raied untill enough producers find it economic to switch on and everyone gets that price so cheap solar is raking in the money during those periods and the consumers pay the sku high price. It will not be until enough cheap reneables are produced to keep ethe expensive producers off the grid that peak periods with high prices shorten that consumers will see a reduction in their bills.

[@ericinboden2430]

Lets go

[@pathfollower]

I have been trying to do this math for my state of Georgia for a while. Georgia has 4.3 gigawatts of production but uses more than it produces. It buys about 15% of its electricity. If we built about 3 times that in solar that would be say 14 gigawatts of solar farm. Three times may be overkill since we already get 70% of power from hydro, but we'll go with that. New solar farms around here average about to 11 or 12 acres per megawatt of installed capacity. But if we accept industry standard of 15 acres per megawatt that would be 210,000 acres of solar. Yeah that sounds like a lot. Its about 330 square miles. But actually its just a little more than ½ of 1% of Georgia's land area. The current cost of solar farms are about $1 a watt, so $14 billion for 14 gigawatts of solar farm. Georgia has two new nuclear plants being built at plant Vogal that are years and years behind schedule and way over budget. They are currently looking to cost twice the amount of such a solar farm or about $30 billion. Of course with solar we still need to buy batteries, about another 4 billion for a three day backup. Interesting stuff. PS. We have cheap power now,... about 10.5 cents per Kilowatt hour. But I bet it goes way up the minute they fire up those 2 new nuclear plants. Can finally start charging us for them.

[@cjonesplay1]

This guy is Like the Moses of Renewable Energy. Wow.

[@Charvak-Atheist]

At what battery cost per KWh, the solar energy (production + storage) becomes cheeper than traditional energy ? Currently Solar energy is already cheaper when when you add storage to it, its littel higher. That is why Coal fired plant is still running (purticularly during evening and night)

[@Brian-dt4hw]

Besides investing in Tesla, where can we invest our $$$$ to get in front of this disruption?

[@rogerstarkey5390]

Warren Buffet had recently invested in Wind.... Just saying. Batteries.... You could hit a 1000x company, but it's a lottery (maybe) Solar? I suppose if you put "$1" into 50 companies and a couple make it big, you're laughing?

[@lewisbowes4921]

Battery recycling

[@PassportGaming]

@@lewisbowes4921 Tesla already does that. Also redwood materials isn't a public company

[@duffgaryduff]

You don’t need any other than Tesla to capitalise on this movement. They are a powerhouse company and mission driven.

[@lewisbowes4921]

@@PassportGaming Absolutely, but there will probably be multiple companies operating in that space. American Battery Technology Company is publicly traded.

[@exponentialflow1895]

It's interesting why this isn't being converted into real energy projects by real entities like countries, states or energy companies. Yes the incumbent mindset is real and part of human nature. But you would think someone would take a lead on this and demonstrate the viability of this thinking at a viable scale to demonstrate a copy-paste potential. What Tesla Energy is kind of illustrates the potential yet the bottleneck is the battery supply. It just shows how hard it is to realise this new thinking. Not everywhere it will be possible at once. We need pioneers who will embrace and prove this works. 2030s will be so amazing to live in (that's if the US and China don't go to war beforehand😮)

[@Kynareth6]

What when solar panels are covered with snow? Snow-melting solar panels would have to be used. Everyone around me uses normal solar panels without the snow-melting feature.

[@pierreblattner4527]

You could do it Florida also but GOP don't want!!!

[@dougj8000]

I've been a big fan of Tony Seba. However, I'm troubled by these two assertions (at around 4:35): 1) solar panels can be used in place of structural plywood 2) solar panels are already less expensive than structural plywood Any links to this project in Australia?

[@Relentlessambitionawareness]

Incredible as always! I think he would benefit from updating his charts and graphs in terms of readability like they do on visual capitalist, as his ones takes awhile to process and look dated

[@cryptocoinkiwi8272]

I would invest the shit out of X and SpaceX if I had the chance!

[@TeNgaere]

So, what this means, there is no need to build solar(fusion) power at a huge cost as we already have it with solar panels!!! Think about it.

[@barrysherwood5089]

would like to see some backup references/calculations etc to be armed with responses to the incumbent nay-sayers

[@douglachman7330]

Storage may need to cope with flood or other natural systemic problems. Requiring long infrastructural recovery times that batteries can cover.

[@christianvanderstap6257]

Highest cost for a data center is energy. Biggest growth sector is IT. Make energy cheap/free and the economy will follow

[@alsjogren7890]

Does existing hydroelectric fit into the future? Seattle has lots of hydro, but not much solar nor strong frequent wind. I agree that new generation should be solar, wind, and energy storage.

[@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck]

Tony is an HHGG time traveller. Don’t you think he looks like a Golgafrincham?

[@YukonJack88]

You have to account for push back to disruptive tendencies.... You think all these utilities are going just rollover? Don Sadoway, of Ambri stated that there was serious resistance to the adoption of his cutting edge Grid storage solution... which is a game changer.

[@luc_libv_verhaegen]

210GW of solar, 180GW of onshore wind do not cut it for germany. Not if you run that over the S.M.A.R.D data production and consumption data (which is available for the last 8 years). And even then, if we are to offset methane and heating oil demand, electricity demand would at least double (even when we 3x the efficiency)

[@rolfwester863]

I don't understand the numbers for Germany (time: 19:50). 210 GW peak solar and 180 GW peak wind will generate about 500 TWh electrical energy/year. That is about the current demand. What does the factor of 5.0 mean then? Does that mean solar: 210 x 5 and wind 180 x 5? Is this correct or am I misinterpreting the numbers? I would be very grateful for an answer.

[@prins424]

Agreed it is not clear. I guess it is about 5X the current solar + wind generation?

[@johannesmuller3294]

Intersting perspective. Though, when projecting 3 to 6 TWh of battery capacity for Germany, did you consider the cost effectiveness of seasonal long term hydrogen storage and CCGT re-electrification? Hydrogen is shitty for short term, but excels great if you only do 1 - 10 cycles per year for part of your storage requirements => short (battery) plus long (hydrogen) storage combo reduces cost especially for northern-seasonal countries and reduces battery need...

[@stefanscheinert1471]

maybe you did not get it; you won't need a seasonal storage. If you overproduce you will need less batteries. you only need 110 of storage.

[@MultiThibor]

Man braucht eigentlich immer einen saisonalen Langzeitspeicher, zu lange sind Dunkelflauten und letztlich haben wir ja auch noch Gasverbraucher. Der Vortrag vereinfacht vieles, Problemstellungen die in der Realität einfach nicht zu unterschätzen sind. 1. Die Gebäudebeheizung. Hier sind viele Häuser, vor allem ältere Mehrfamilienhäuser, nicht wirklich für den reinen Wärmepumpenbetrieb ausgelegt. Zu hoch sind die Vorlauftemperaturen (oft Einrohrheizung) und die Trinkwassererwärmung verlangt ein Hygienekonzept mit recht hohen Temperaturen um einem Legionellenbefall vorzubeugen. Was soll hier außer Gas sinnvoll eingesetzt werden? Höchstens ein Hybridsystem, WP für die Übergangszeit und Gas für den Kernwinter. 2. Ortsnetze (0,4 und 20 kV) sind nicht für den flächigen Wärmepumpeneinsatz ausgelegt. Die eigene PV liefert im Winter fast nichts, der Strom muss von außen durch das Nadelöhr des Ortsnetzes gehen. Das zeitig umzubauen gleicht purem Wunschdenken. Gas als Brennstoff wird auch hier noch lange dominieren. 3. Fernwärmenetze werden über Heizkraftwerke betrieben die natürlich einen Brennstoff benötigen. Viele größere Städte haben solche historisch gewachsenen Netze mit einer Vielzahl an Fernwärmekunden. Auch hier ist der Gebäudebestand alt, die Systemtemperaturen hoch und die Anforderung an hygienisch einwandfreies Trinkwarmwasser muss sowieso immer erfüllt werden. Was geht einfach? PV über die Nacht bringen mit einem Batteriespeicher, ich rüste gerade einen nach. Warmwasser über Brauchwasserwärmepumpe und die Beheizung in der Übergangszeit mit Klima-Splitgeräten. Mehr als 50% des jährlichen Gasverbrauchs lässt sich so im Bestand (je nach Gegebenheiten) locker einsparen. Windenergie werden wir auch noch massiv ausbauen und die Kurzzeitspeicherung über Batterien realisieren. Überschüsse, vor allem aus der PV im Sommer, werden wir über eine Methansynthese für das Winterhalbjahr speichern müssen. Was dann dennoch einem exponentiellem Wachstum entgegensteht: PV und Wind sind keine Smartphone-Apps oder soziale Medien mit entsprechend schneller Marktpenetrierung sondern reale, physische Systeme. Sie müssen geplant (Personal), gefertigt (Personal) und errichtet (Personal) werden. Wo soll das auf die Schnelle herkommen? Gewiss, die Automobilzulieferer werden durch den Übergang zur Elektromobilität heftig schrumpfen und Überkapazitäten können umgeleitet werden aber dennoch stockt das in Realität eher. Leute, die das wie ich selbst installieren sind eher die Ausnahme. Zu wenig technikaffin sind weite Teile der Bevölkerung und Handwerker rar. Hinzu kommt auch noch ein Gewisser Akzeptanzfaktor. Hier im konservativen Bayern lehnen viele Windkraftanlagen ab einem gewissen Ausbaupunkt einfach ab. "Zu viel, verschandelt die Landschaft, wieso gerade hier...", die klassischen NIMBY eben. Was will man da tun? Hier ist das eher ein Generationenproblem. Politik als solches ist auch eher hinderlich. Für den Juristen sind kWh Güter die wie alle anderen Güter mit bürokratischem Aufwand entsprechend bilanziert, abgerechnet und besteuert werden. Für mich als Ingenieur ist eine PV-Anlage primär ein "Grenzkosten-Null"-System, jede kWh ist so günstig das nicht einmal die Bürokratie darauf etwas wert ist. Energieversorger sind je nach Kraftwerkspark auch kein großer Freund von PV und Wind mit Batteriespeichern. Alte Braunkohlekraftwerke und viele alte Kernkraftwerke sind nicht gut Lastfolgefähig da das damals auch nicht benötigt wurde, Deutschland ist hier durch den Atomausstiegt im Vorteil der besseren "Anpassungsfähigkeit", die Ukraine als Beispiel mit ihren WWER-Reaktoren sowjetischer Bauart dürfte da irgendwann Probleme bekommen. Sie haben im Vergleich zu westlichen Anlagen aus Sicht einer Sicherheitsphilosophie einen großen Wasserinhalt im Primärkreislauf der bei verstärkter Nutzung volatiler Energiequellen oder höheren Autarkiegraden im Sommer (PV+Speicher) hier Probleme durch eine hohe Anlageträgheit und wahrscheinlich schlechterer Lastfolgefähigkeit (ausgedrückt in MW/min). Solche Anlagen gehen dadurch wahrscheinlich schneller "kaputt", thermomechanisch ermüdet. Dieses Defizit muss durch Steinkohle- oder besser Gaskraftwerke abgefedert werden. Wer schlachtet jetzt was? Alte, abgeschriebene Kernkraftwerke (mit einer Laufzeitverlängerung auf 60 Jahre) zugunsten von Wind, PV und Speichern opfern? Vom Hörensagen habe ich hier vor dem Krieg (Russland-Ukraine) erfahren dass das Anlaufen der "Dagegenlobby" in voller Fahrt war, stellenweise wurden Solarparks absichtlich zerstört. Das war ein langer Kommentar, ich hoffe er hilft etwas Verständnis aufzubauen. Ich schätze Tony Seba sehr, man merkt allerdings das er aus der Welt der IT kommt. Vieles ist aus ingenieurmäßiger Sicht dann doch stark vereinfacht. Gewiss, bis zu 50, 60% der elektrischen Energie lassen sich vergleichsweise einfach einspeisen (bei gegebenem Netzausbau und Kraftwerkspark), die großen Aufgaben, Methanisierung, Langzeitspeicherung, Totalersatz aller ungeeigneten Kraftwerke kommt dann aber später noch hinzu. Das ist auch der Hauptgrund warum es dann am Ende länger dauern wird selbst wenn Lobbygruppen (Kernkraftwerksbetreiber, Kohlekraftwerksbetreiber, Energieversorger, inkompetente Politik und wahnsinnige Bürokraten) ausgeschaltet werden. Die USA werden sich einfacher tun, mehr wohnen in Einfamilienhäusern mit viel Dachfläche pro Person. Geheizt wird mit einer Luft/Luft-Wärmepumpe (reversible Klimaanlage) und es ist theoretisch mehr Platz für Windkraftanlagen verfügbar. Dagegen sprechen allerdings viele Republikaner. In Texas werden (wurden?) Gebäude mit PV stärker besteuert. Theorie und Praxis eben.

[@cleanthinking]

If Germany creates 600 TWh super power, it will need this energy to provide the steel and the chemical industry with green hydrogen from electrolysis, right? The chemical industry in Germany alone needs 600 TWh electricity for hydrogen creation.

[@michaelquyenthomas8927]

Could you please explain how the disruption to the energy industry will affect the utility companies going forward?

[@alb9472]

When is the right time to invest in solar? with this big falls in prices, what are the optimal time?

[@GM4ThePeople]

Well, I wish I was in the Land of Seba

[@santiagoangulo]

@tonyseba Honest question: Would the world be able to produce enough solar panels, wind generators and battery storage in the next 10 years without pushing the limits of current industrial output, energy needs and mining capacity existing today. I would love a video where these can be clarified. Thanks!

[@hansay8511]

I have similiar question and I think the answer should be “no”. Soalr panels can be this cheap because China has heen producing them like crazy without nearly zero care about their environments and dumping those on the market

[@davestagner]

There’s a misguided belief that solar panels are made with rare, exotic materials. They are not. They’re basically just spicy windows. It’s a pane of glass with an aluminum/plastic frame, a thin layer of doped silicon, and some wire. The most expensive material by far is silver for the wiring (about $20 worth in a 100w solar panel). There’s another misguided belief that we mine every bit of known available ore. We don’t. Instead, we mine to meet market demand, and overproduction is avoided because it makes the market (and profitability) collapse. So as demand rises, production follows pretty rapidly. And there’s yet another misguided belief that lithium is the only viable battery for this disruption. But for grid storage, other technologies make more sense - flow batteries, iron-air, etc. They’re much more massive, but also much cheaper and longer-lasting. Yeah, we can do this.

[@justforthehackofit]

great manga intro :D

[@RebelWriter6]

Nothing is free; taxpayers are paying for Natural Gas Plants. Taxpayers should have the choice, not the government. Energy will always be needed, but depending on where one lives, energy costs will be different. Imagine if all Box Stores had solar on their roofs, malls, education facilities and hospitals. We need to invest in renewables because the ROI is better eventually, and less chance of being affected by severe storms.

[@PascalMeienberg]

so we could use the extra electricity to produce fuel, from water hydrolosis

[@grantguy8933]

It makes me wonder did cathe wood borrow Tony’s idea from day one on tesla and everything else all failed especially he did not mention crypto at all?

[@michaelkim3432]

Must...move...faster!!

[@beniaminosani2719]

you can't really measure solar in GW. A GW of solar will produce a quarter of a GW of nuclear. 74GW of gas can produce on demand as like 200GW+ of non programmable pv.

[@mrspeigle1]

Just want to point out one potential blip in the data here, has Tony's team factored the electrifacation of transportations impact on grid demand? 1 tesla semi needs a megawatt to charge its battery push that out to every day times the 1 million trucks in the United states?

[@ken-mb5cp]

There is no gravity. The earth just sucks😊.

[@TedKidd]

17:00 overcapacity can be economical

[@macrumpton]

We will have so much excess energy we will be able to afford to suck the carbon out of the atmosphere to avoid the worst of the climate catastrophe. An army of solar powered AI controlled robots will roam the earth cleaning and fixing the mess we have been making for the last 100 years. 40 years from now earth will be a paradise.

[@jjackson3240]

Late to the party here but I have been trying to figure out for the last year how this translates to individual residents. Say I have an average use of 20kwh/day. Would I need 4 times that capacity plus storage? That would mean I would need to have 15kw worth of panels on my roof to generate 80kwh on an average day. Then I would need about 60kwh(3 days) worth of storage plus the inverter. I'm assuming no feedback to the grid in my calculations. I can currently buy a system that size for about $32,000 uninstalled. Except here in California we are currently limited to 10kw rooftop systems. Anyone out there know if these are how Mr.Seba's calculations work?