The Horne Section - Flies Undone

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[@emilysykes8507]

Which episode is this from?

[@evegasse6999]

It's from the Pat Cahill episode.

[@15schaa]

This one bothers me for its logical inaccuracy. It does not follow that there is always one member with their flies undone - in fact there is a 7.8% chance that noone has their flies undone. The only way to guarantee that there is always at least one person has their flies undone is for one person to perpetually have their flies undone, 100% of the time.

[@evegasse6999]

I guess that's why they're musicians and not statisticians / mathematicians!

[@iriscreighton739]

This is assuming that they are independent events.

[@15schaa]

@@iriscreighton739 I think that's fair to assume - they list their probabilities independently, and never imply that the probabilities change based on the flies of the other band members.

[@iriscreighton739]

@@15schaa Their claim that one of them always has their flies undone explicitly states that the events are not independent, as you have outlined. Moreover, they only tell us the proportions of the durations of having their flies done or undone- it is possible that they all used to have their flies done and now always have their flies undone.

[@15schaa]

@@iriscreighton739 even regardless of whether or not they're independent, the fact you've pointed out they say "of my life" rather than "of the time" as I'd assumed (I've only just relistened to the song) opens up a new problem - they don't say anything about their future fly habits. These are not probabilities, they're running totals, and only give us information about the past - we can't make any predictions about the future or the present.