Tried this a few times with my 2 euros coin. I gained 2, 2, 2, 8, 8, 16, 16, 128 and then lost my coin between the sofa cushions. So this game actually made me lose 2 euros without any reward.
@666-d5y3 жыл бұрын
i wonder why this comment hasnt "blown up"
@glowstonelovepad92943 жыл бұрын
mogus
@theman48843 жыл бұрын
I simulated it 10,000,000 times. The average win was 21.5 with the largest win being 2,097,152. So it looks to me that betting up to 20 would make sense.
@fos14513 жыл бұрын
@@theman4884 I feel like the outliner really does make a difference in the average, can you give us the median and the winning that shows up the most?
@ethanvon2223 жыл бұрын
@@fos1451 well the most common would be 2, duh, and median would be like 4 or 2
@Keyboardkat35 жыл бұрын
If I had a nickel for every time that i had a nickel, i'd have a lot of nickels
@griffin76705 жыл бұрын
Infinite nikle
@its_lucky25265 жыл бұрын
You’d have double the nickels
@okktok5 жыл бұрын
Keyboardkat3 you will have 2 nickels
@thefountainpendesk5 жыл бұрын
@@its_lucky2526 then you get a nickel for each of them nickels
@fluxion20495 жыл бұрын
You do have a nickel every time you have a nickel, therefore you have 1 nickel.
@orealis85765 жыл бұрын
"...And a person with $2 should spend $3.35..." *stonks*
@DarthMauldinOfficial5 жыл бұрын
*STONKS*
@bloroxcleach34395 жыл бұрын
*SKNOTS*
@maulwurf94145 жыл бұрын
*onskst*
@bloodlust_98905 жыл бұрын
SNOT
@amzwl16715 жыл бұрын
S
@reedphillips30833 жыл бұрын
“This game can’t exist!” *MrBeast enters the room*
@Rekdon3 жыл бұрын
Same
@ThePixelKid9033 жыл бұрын
What does same mean for this sentence?
@mrcrispybacon5783 жыл бұрын
It means he’s rich I guess
@barbmcelderry91643 жыл бұрын
*game shows enter the room*
@Rekdon3 жыл бұрын
Hi
@billmcneal22765 жыл бұрын
so this is where mr beast gets his money from
@yinyang12175 жыл бұрын
yh
@TheReplay3245 жыл бұрын
@@yinyang1217 Mr Beast wants to know your location.
@wildtangent68905 жыл бұрын
666 likes ;)
@nakiado5 жыл бұрын
He actually did a video similar to this, had random people pick between two cups with one holding like 50 bucks and then the player could go again for double the price until they wanted to cash in.
@TheEpicFace0075 жыл бұрын
@@wildtangent6890 ya boi
@SergioEduP5 жыл бұрын
Kevin: "what is a chance of infinite wealth worth for you?" Me: Idk, like 5$ maybe
@SergioEduP5 жыл бұрын
Okay I just flipped a coin a couple of times and would have walked away with 8$ so I stand by my previous comment.
@darkslayer86075 жыл бұрын
@@SergioEduP cool
@yinyang12175 жыл бұрын
@@SergioEduP cool
@benjaminwilkin29605 жыл бұрын
Cool
@LiamNebe5 жыл бұрын
Working backwards with Bernoulli's logarithmic equation then, looks like you've only got about $4.46 in the bank.
@adamtaurus78405 жыл бұрын
"If things go really well, things go really well" Ah yes, the floor here is made of floor
@kexek79755 жыл бұрын
😂😂😂
@negus92985 жыл бұрын
Hmm very interesting hypothesis
@slysamuel59025 жыл бұрын
Ah yes, O is the same letter as o.
@Alex_...345655 жыл бұрын
@@slysamuel5902 Omg I always thought it was y😱
@slysamuel59025 жыл бұрын
@Maria Koch Like, same dude.
@Byran-op7sf3 жыл бұрын
“if things go really well, things go really well” *every 60 seconds in africa, a minute passes*
@oswald0_3 жыл бұрын
*Spread the word*
@redcrewmate21013 жыл бұрын
ah yes the floor here is made out of floor
@Healthandwealth94223 жыл бұрын
Yes the wall is made out of wall
@Albert-yu1cg3 жыл бұрын
every 60 seconds in orbit, slightly less than a minute passes
@drewidlifestyle78833 жыл бұрын
Reduplication* *as described in VSauce- Is Cereal Soup
@jamesdickson42195 жыл бұрын
see yall in 6 years when this is in everyone's recommended
@lemonkes86185 жыл бұрын
Lmao
@iammrblue27745 жыл бұрын
Okay hope so
@tortistortis5 жыл бұрын
How is your life future me? I will answer this when it’s in my recommended again
@bingovalue5 жыл бұрын
Canadian Cookies Entertainment its in to nów tho
@angusb14345 жыл бұрын
Lol yeah
@SomeoneYouDontKnowOfficial5 жыл бұрын
"You aren't a logarithmic function." Bold of you to assume that.
@frostcrackle23744 жыл бұрын
Name checks out.
@acro97794 жыл бұрын
Name checks out.
@somerandomashellperson71304 жыл бұрын
But if you aren't someone I know you are now someone I know but still not someone I know, so what are you?
@danthedanator27654 жыл бұрын
You remind me of someone I don't know
@yulianairaisortizlira80784 жыл бұрын
Bold of you to assume that he is assuming that
@duchi8825 жыл бұрын
*"This game can't even exist"* I want 10 minutes of my life back
@idontunderstandjokes83085 жыл бұрын
Duchi so what did you do with those other 2 minutes
@marcopasta62745 жыл бұрын
@@idontunderstandjokes8308 Dying
@pidgeon7085 жыл бұрын
@@idontunderstandjokes8308 it was at 10 minutes when he said that.
@andrewjones95475 жыл бұрын
sooooo you dont enjoy him talking and educating you
@BboyKeny5 жыл бұрын
Lets play the game, I start as the dealer then you be the dealer. The price is the difference in amount won. So we cant reach infinite if we both reach infinite cause that would be 0
@GRLDT4 жыл бұрын
"Who would empty their bank account to play a game whe-" **Mr. Beast wants to know your location**
@ActuallyDaghen3 жыл бұрын
Its Michigan
@handsomehead13813 жыл бұрын
Its Washington
@RafaelMunizYT2 жыл бұрын
earth
@LSkipperGamerАй бұрын
*No Further Specification Available*, Java Island, Indonesia, Asia, Earth, Solar Solar System, Milky Way, Universe
@LSkipperGamerАй бұрын
The percentage i am correct is: 56.36%
@SJrad5 жыл бұрын
I’d pay $2, at worse I break even.
@Dragosmom.4 жыл бұрын
Im gonna offer this game at school for 3 bucks. They have a 25% chance to win 2 bucks and a 50% to lose 1 i wont make losses and the 12.5% chance for them to get 5 bucks back ahould draw them in.
@Buphido4 жыл бұрын
Mark Richard Hess Do it like this: tails ends the streak. Price for entry: 5$ 1 throw: 1$ 2 throws: 2$ 3 throws: 4$ 4 throws: 8$ 5 throws: 16$ 5 throws (5th is heads): 32$ The average winnings would be 3.5$, so you‘d make 1.5$ profit per player!
@Dragosmom.4 жыл бұрын
@@Buphido thanks ima try bbn it
@BananaWasTaken4 жыл бұрын
@@Dragosmom. how did it go
@artit913 жыл бұрын
@@BananaWasTaken never try to do it
@epic_gamerXD123455 жыл бұрын
but when u gonna talk about infinite water sources
@kraio-sfu5 жыл бұрын
*Nestle wants to know your location*
@stopstaringandsubscribe51895 жыл бұрын
You only need 2 water buckets and 2 by 2 1 depth hole and you are gtg
@bmxscape5 жыл бұрын
@@stopstaringandsubscribe5189 or a 3x1 hole, and gtg does not mean "good to go"
@stopstaringandsubscribe51895 жыл бұрын
@@bmxscape nice profile pic ... gtg means good to go / got to go ...
@bmxscape5 жыл бұрын
@@stopstaringandsubscribe5189 thanks yours is pretty neat aswell. but i never heard anyone use gtg for good to go
@caleborg56885 жыл бұрын
Kevin in a previous attempt at recording this: in the end, you are you. *flips coin* coin: *false* Kevin: oh shoot
@davidj56425 жыл бұрын
Caleborg *reshoots video until coins lands on fact*
@mr.waffles53583 жыл бұрын
“1 piece of something is called an item, 64 items is called a stack”
@ishaankapoor9333 жыл бұрын
MineCraft
@XentriaNova3 жыл бұрын
Crafting and mining
@iranam10043 жыл бұрын
Haha funny cube game
@spocite2 жыл бұрын
Haha funny cube game
@colemyhre83324 жыл бұрын
Just wait until he finds out how much people spend on the lottery.
@thoryan30574 жыл бұрын
The expected value of lottery winnings is always less than what it costs to play. Even if a lottery cost $1 to play, the prize is $200 million, and the odds of winning is 1 in 100 million, the odds that there are multiple winners with that higher jackpot is higher and thus causes the overall expected value to still be less than $1. Every lottery has it's own apex (the highest expected value possible based on all possible jackpot amounts), but the apex is always less than the price to play. Casino games also have expected values less than the price to pay them, but these expected values are usually much closer to the price to play than the lottery. The way I see it, casinos and/or lotteries can be worth it to anyone, but those people need to have an economic demand for playing the game for the sake of it. So a person might spend $1 on a lottery with a $0.50 expected value, but have a $0.60 demand for the excitement of playing. In that case, their economic equilibrium is $1.10 and it actually would be worth them playing. However, if they were to buy two lottery tickets instead of one, their economic demand would be $1.60 even though it would cost them $2 to have two lottery tickets. Then, it would not be worth it to play.
@yeetyboix65954 жыл бұрын
@@thoryan3057 k
@ortherner4 жыл бұрын
@@thoryan3057 k
@noobiamyes48533 жыл бұрын
@@thoryan3057 k
@polyminutes87883 жыл бұрын
@@thoryan3057 k
@happyfakeboulder6445 жыл бұрын
"If things go really well ... then things could go _really well_ . [Wink]" -- Kevin, 2019
@mothlastname24135 жыл бұрын
Happy Fakeboulder I watched the same video you did no need to repeat it in the comments
@GDCilia5 жыл бұрын
@@mothlastname2413 They were emphasizing the second really well to play to dirty minded people, you human equivalent of a rotting cabbage with spilled spoiled milk on top mixed with flat diet coke and 2-year-old mentos
@man-throwing-thing5 жыл бұрын
Aurorain rare but innovative as well. Far more innovative than new iPhones...
@rahuldhali76815 жыл бұрын
How to make a Vsauce video : *put the word paradox in everything* .
@johntate65375 жыл бұрын
Everyparadoxthing
@Aerialyn5 жыл бұрын
The P O T A T O paradox
@fredwood61075 жыл бұрын
Water Paradox
@alessiobenvenuto51595 жыл бұрын
This is a paradox
@RobertoDeMundo5 жыл бұрын
The paradox paradox.
@chefizzy22384 жыл бұрын
Knowing my luck I’d be the only person to win $0
@oslonicl62513 жыл бұрын
The coin lands on its side, meaning it is not heads so the game ends but it is not tails so you do not get the profits
@livedandletdie3 жыл бұрын
50% of people will lose on average whatever they'd bet on it, so no matter the prize, if 50% will always lose, then sure 50% will always win, let's say that the cost of playing is $2.1, then we get that in a game of 1000 players, all piling together $2100 500 of those would go home with $0, meanwhile 500 people would win a minimum of $2... Well we get that... for k players, the prize for playing has to be k/ln(12)^1.1 let's enter 1000 into that, and we get that each player needs to pay $367.5 to play and never let the prize pool reach zero. The price increases with the expected amount of players, by a lot for 2 players it's 73 cents per player. For 3 players it's $1.1 for 10 players it's $3.6... For a million players it's $367416.79...
@diamondking1693 жыл бұрын
@@livedandletdie just acknowledging your comment so you know it wasn't for nothing 🤣
@spazzwazzle3 жыл бұрын
I get it.
@mr.cheese56973 жыл бұрын
The are no such thing as luck. You just Loking at examples where you lose, ignoring all of them. It's permitic point of view, you should be more realistic, If you're not are teen go to a psychologist.
@Path-of-The-Believer5 жыл бұрын
My bank account has $12 dollars so yeah I’d empty it out for a chance to play
@vaszgul7365 жыл бұрын
But what if you're allergic to peanut butter
@elp41965 жыл бұрын
@@vaszgul736 thats true 🤔
@hittinghardtm85875 жыл бұрын
Mine has 3.04€ so you're set lol
@kmnakbonnnum59585 жыл бұрын
I have 17$
@mydickisincrediblytinyandi73804 жыл бұрын
Mine has 1500£ in right now but I wouldn't blow my wage on this game lmao
@6byrontenorio5 жыл бұрын
Editing this comment 'cause I sound edgy here lmao
@gabano13115 жыл бұрын
Well sheeeeeet
@Ernad15 жыл бұрын
Wow.
@renookami46515 жыл бұрын
Now that's a good conclusion to this experiment. Let's just cheat your way out, since you dont need cheats to win anyway.
@eternalreign23135 жыл бұрын
Can't you walk away when you want to or do you have to play until you get a flip wrong? You only need to get 20 in a row to win a million, and 30 to win a billion.
@samruddhi72625 жыл бұрын
I was the 222 like !!!! Im proud
@Corrupted5 жыл бұрын
Consecutively winning is a huge difference, why do so many people miss that lol
@thegamesuniverse3084 жыл бұрын
Egg
@denisdelinger32654 жыл бұрын
@@thegamesuniverse308 eggn't
@felixtt13294 жыл бұрын
It shouldn't matter , the real factor for the bet is whether the output of what you pay is less the the most likely input , the last part of the video covers this.
@schindy63854 жыл бұрын
Du hier? :O
@j.s.73354 жыл бұрын
Right on! I'm a bit on the poor side, but I'd pay maybe $300 to play this because it doesn't take a whole lot of flips before the cumulative payouts are in the $100s.
@natekoyle93563 жыл бұрын
Always love your videos. I always finish them with a feeling that lays somewhere in the middle of smarter/more empowered and completely dumbfounded about everything I’ve known. Which is for some reason why I love your content! Thanks Vsauce!
@BetweenTheLyons5 жыл бұрын
Is this the same paradox that Beavis and Butt-head used when they payed eachother $1 back and forth for the whole box of candy bars for the school fundraiser?
@idontunderstandjokes83085 жыл бұрын
White Templar and they ended up with a half dollar
@poppy38795 жыл бұрын
An you please link the episode or tell me the name
@PaulMeranda5 жыл бұрын
*i appreciated* your joke, Lyons. all bout that KingTurd Collection, cheggit out if you never heard of it.
@bmwolgas5 жыл бұрын
That is one of my favorite episodes of the series. "Hey Butthead, you want a candy bar?" "Uhhhhh....ok."
@flegmatika57585 жыл бұрын
Infinite... yawn. Me: *YAWNS*
@exotrrc16365 жыл бұрын
@Orion D. Hunter the infinity yawn
@asterix_knut5 жыл бұрын
Why did I yawn at this comment, wtf
@griffin76705 жыл бұрын
Great. Now we have another thing Kevin can mansplain Jk I love kevin
@thefountainpendesk5 жыл бұрын
I yawned at this comment
@certifiedfurry5 жыл бұрын
@@asterix_knut why did i yawn at your reply
@Slayer-Knight5 жыл бұрын
Dammit, Kevin. You are now the sole survivor of the three Vsauce channels... It's actually pretty sad...
@sylveon_gaming5 жыл бұрын
?
@aspiringcloudexpert51275 жыл бұрын
???
@GauravSharma-dy8xv5 жыл бұрын
????
@Jake285 жыл бұрын
?????
@rakeshsharma-ps7oo5 жыл бұрын
??????
@DavidPysnik3 жыл бұрын
The issue here is that you literally need to play the game an infinite amount of times for the infinite expected value to be valid, and that isn't possible. The better way to think of it is that the expected value can become as large as you want as long as you are willing to play a sufficiently high number of times. The question of what is good to pay is then tied to how many times you will play. It's intuitive not to pay too much to play because you know you are probably not going to get a long string of "fact" flips unless you play a ridiculous amount of times, and you know you aren't going to play a ridiculous amount of times. There is really no paradox here, so I will go back to being a logarithmic function now.
@flatfingertuning7272 жыл бұрын
The expected value is dependent upon how large a payout one would be able to collect if one were to win it. If winning ten times would result in the opponent defaulting the portion of on any prize value over $1,000, then no upside over $1000 should count toward the EV.
@abdulmasaiev90242 жыл бұрын
Well, not really. Imagine a modification of this game where after 100 rounds the game stops no matter what the toss result is and you just get an infinity dollars. You can now in fact realistically get to the infinite reward in about an hour and a half, assuming a very leisurely rate of 1 coin toss per minute. Are you now willing to pay any price to play this game, or is it still something you'd spend maybe like $20 tops on, if that? The actual explanation is what's in the video. There's pretty much no practical difference between having 1 quadrillion and 1 quintillion dollars, even though numerically they're extremely different. The expected numerical value of this game is infinite, but its expected utility is not and in fact it falls off pretty quickly.
@joanaguadomedina30602 жыл бұрын
yes
@Anonymous-df8it2 жыл бұрын
Except that you need to play infinitely many times for *_any_* expected value to be valid. How is this any different?
@jaketerpening3284 Жыл бұрын
@@Anonymous-df8it That's not necessarily true. If we were to toss a coin 100 times, we could be fairly confident that we would probably get between 40 or 60 heads, pretty close to an expected value of 50 heads. Sure the chance of ending up with exactly our expected value is pretty small, but because our variance isn't that big, we can use an expected value for this type of game to judge on if it's a good bet or not. However in the infinite value game, our variance is also infinite so the expected value isn't useful for even large sample sizes like 1000 games played.
@nashvilletennessee43914 жыл бұрын
“If someone allergic to peanuts won them, they would be... kil-less thrilled”
@emilior9344 жыл бұрын
Or he could start his sandwich business!
@mayoraldrinzon48474 жыл бұрын
Haha very nice pun there haha please kill me
@nashvilletennessee43914 жыл бұрын
invalid user 👌🔪
@greywolf75774 жыл бұрын
Just sell the sandwiches.
@realbignoob18864 жыл бұрын
@@greywolf7577 yeah
@verachoi93625 жыл бұрын
vsauce: YOU are MORE than an expected value me, tearing up: THANKS FOR VALIDATING ME KEVIN
@THElarry275 жыл бұрын
alternative universe: coin: *f a l s e*
@flowtr24 жыл бұрын
chuuya is worth the most
@DhirC354 жыл бұрын
Meh suicide is still the answer
@TheOne_611 ай бұрын
party tiem
@thelifeofapenguin21595 жыл бұрын
You've got Vsauce 2; "The infinite money paradox" and then you've got Vsauce; "Should you eat yourself?" well...
@isaiahcampbell17824 жыл бұрын
Lawful Good Vsauce 2 vs Chaotic Evil Vsauce
@-wingsofwasp-4 жыл бұрын
You're already eating yourself every time you swallow
@nikolaysergeevUSA4 жыл бұрын
@@-wingsofwasp- ummm... nevermind...
@ThomasTheThermonuclearBomb4 жыл бұрын
Don’t forget: How many holes does a human have? from Vsauce
@its_jasonBSF4 жыл бұрын
vsause3?
@Jester_The_Jynxster4 жыл бұрын
That music at the end of every video always gives me the feeling like I've just watched something of monumental importance. Even when I've just watched him run a toy monkey down a piece of string or something...I still come off thinking, "that was deep"....
@SkyRecruit185 жыл бұрын
Did you guys forget the original vsauce password???
@janklitzke26245 жыл бұрын
Maybe that‘s why they‘re sponsored by lastpass
@SkyRecruit185 жыл бұрын
@@janklitzke2624 This deserves a heart xD
@Glac05 жыл бұрын
he's the only one who still remembers his because he uses LastPass
@Jamato-sUn5 жыл бұрын
There are Red episodes
@monhi645 жыл бұрын
Wow a super original comment definitely haven't seen this commented 20 times on every vsauce video for years
@ilyaholt86075 жыл бұрын
Hey Kevin, why did you stop the Mind Blow series? It was every interesting for me and I always got excited when a new episode came up. These videos are cool too, but it would be nice to see some variety. (still better than vsauce1 these days tho)
@Jayberisk37935 жыл бұрын
Vsauce these days? No such thing :'(
@chiggs54835 жыл бұрын
DING is basically a mini Vsauce 1 and is pretty cool
@hamesbone5 жыл бұрын
looking glass was good too... i think thats what it was called any way
@DaBunne5 жыл бұрын
interesting timing Ilya. I was just thinking of mentioning Mind Blow in the comments here too. I've missed that series for a long time, but why did I not have an impulse to say something about it til today?? Now that it's been a few years.. a bet a lot of cool things have surfaced that Kevin could review too. :)
@richardgibson84035 жыл бұрын
Ilya Holt H E Y V S A U C E M I C H E A L H E R E
@Gold1618035 жыл бұрын
"No one is cool with [potentially infinite loss]" Never been to a casino, Kevin?
@bluzingtin4 жыл бұрын
Gold161803 except a casino can kick you out
@unliving_ball_of_gas4 жыл бұрын
@@bluzingtin No. I think he means that the players are the ones who experiences infinite loss and not 'the house'/casino but people still play them.
@Pablo360able3 жыл бұрын
r/wallstreetbets
@RafaelMunizYT2 жыл бұрын
@@unliving_ball_of_gas both experience infinite losses but the house has the power
@codinghub37592 жыл бұрын
@@RafaelMunizYT Except casinoes can be rigged. So, they have a lower probability of losing.
@Kazperian4 жыл бұрын
Vsauce makes everything interesting... Vsauce2 makes everything mathematical
@HoSza15 жыл бұрын
Big problem is that infinite gain comes ONLY after you played infinitely many rounds of this game. Because you don't have that much time, you have to cut in a finite time. Then the expected payoff will be finite after finite length of throws and you can easily calculate the maximal price that results in a positive net income. Even, you can calculate the cost of your time and the opportunity costs also. No paradoxes lurking in the darkness when we remain in the realms of finiteness.
@KP-fy5bf Жыл бұрын
exactly
@amobilway1032 Жыл бұрын
Nope, there's still a paradox. Lets say you have 10 hours to play this game at 1 flip every 10 seconds. That is 360 flips an hour and 3600 flips. At 1 dollar per, thats $3600, but no rational person would ever pay anything close to $3600 to play the game once. That's the point of the paradox, not the infinite expected value.
@HoSza1 Жыл бұрын
@@amobilway1032 Nobody said you can play it only once! You can play it as many times you want to, that's crucial.
@tslex6477 Жыл бұрын
@@amobilway1032 i don't understand your point, why nobody would pay 3600$ when the all time worst theoretically imaginable play is if they always flipped false getting 2 dollars every flip gaining 7200$ dollars. Why would anybody be against playing this game?
@BEN-ys6gu11 ай бұрын
@@amobilway1032 And also, I don't think it's correct to think that you need to play a game of chance x amount of times for it to be worth it. Even if you're only allowed to play once in your lifetime, you should still think the same way, even if there is a high chance that you don't win anything.
@Buttermilk05 жыл бұрын
The question is: *WHAT IF I FORGET MY LASTPASS PASSWORD???????*
@tylerboothman44965 жыл бұрын
I wrote mine down on a paper, and text file on a flash drive, stored in a safe, which is locked by a password.
@muhammadadeelzia44325 жыл бұрын
@@tylerboothman4496 What if you forget the password of the safe?
@joops1105 жыл бұрын
Use another app to remember it for you.
@tylerboothman44965 жыл бұрын
@@muhammadadeelzia4432 prybar
@zyaicob5 жыл бұрын
Use Dashlane
@jacobc8745 жыл бұрын
Kevin should just take over Vsauce because hes the only one of the three that still posts on the main vsauce channels
@AirNeat5 жыл бұрын
D!NG
@jacobc8745 жыл бұрын
@@AirNeat re-read my comment. The main Vsauce Channels, other than Kevin's, do not post anymore. As far as I know, DONG is micheals project
@AirNeat5 жыл бұрын
@@jacobc874 What's DONG? I've only ever heard of the very advertiser friendly D!NG
@thekrieger29595 жыл бұрын
@@AirNeat I see, not a true fan DONG was changed to D!NG along ago
@jacobc8745 жыл бұрын
@@thekrieger2959 r/woosh
@Airwolf-lm9cm4 жыл бұрын
Tell me if I’m missing something but the problem is that the expected value of an potentially infinite game gives no useful information. There is no paradox here. You can still pretty easily calculate that the chance of winning something is very small. You chance to win more than 8$ is about 6%. If you are hoping for 128 that is already less than 1%.
@src1752 жыл бұрын
The paradox isn't mathematical, IIRC, it's more economical. Like, "can you actually convince anyone to both host AND play this game", appears to be the paradox. A lot of the proposed solutions for it are economic theories.
@YellowpowR2 жыл бұрын
@@src175 I suppose in that sense this problem is veridical?
@NorthernRealmJackal Жыл бұрын
@@src175So in other words, the "paradox" is that people don't like taking infinite risks..? I'm still not sure what's so baffling about getting a meaningless result when applying abstract math to a problem about non-abstract risks. Maybe I just don't get it.
@virtualdxs5 жыл бұрын
"...potentially infinite loss, and nobody's cool with that" Short sellers would like a word
@eris47345 жыл бұрын
You have a 100% chance of getting less than the expected value.
@ApiolJoe4 жыл бұрын
Nice! I love that!
@orionlax6264 жыл бұрын
TIL $2 < $1.
@AngeK474 жыл бұрын
@@orionlax626 are you dense?
@orionlax6264 жыл бұрын
@@AngeK47 Nope. The expected value is always $1, right?
@hackerulroman4 жыл бұрын
@@orionlax626 1$ per step, and there are infinite steps.
@accordintojordan42505 жыл бұрын
Love that classic opening: “Vsause! Kevin here” *w a i t*
@Thomfamily55 жыл бұрын
Uhh I'm sorry I will not make you bored of people commenting spelling corrections
@accordintojordan42505 жыл бұрын
What?
@pettiestbutton5 жыл бұрын
@@accordintojordan4250 u spelled vsauce wrong
@harrisonkey6985 жыл бұрын
sauce*
@trunestor5 жыл бұрын
sous
@LilacShowers2 жыл бұрын
"The St. Petersburg paradox reminds us that we're all more than math" he says, after showing that the initial math was simply not good enough and it just boiled down to different math
@youreallinsane5 жыл бұрын
These videos in a nutshell: Here's an illogical mathematical algorithm and here's logical psychology. IT'S A PARADOX.
@Granateseeds5 жыл бұрын
I think that's just the nature of paradoxes based on mathematical principals, since this is a legitimate paradox in academia.
@jetjazz055 жыл бұрын
I'd like to think of it as this is just a piece of the puzzle and our mind is computing much more. It's like if you throw a wad of paper, your brain will take into account more than just gravity because it's so light, and while gravity might be a big part of deciding how hard to throw the paper your brain knows there's more to the real world than just that principle.
@TheHippieRat5 жыл бұрын
See I wouldn’t play because I know that a Schrute Buck is only worth 1/100th of a cent.
@dvlce_music5 жыл бұрын
How many Stanley nickels is that
@vasaskyle5 жыл бұрын
@@dvlce_music just use the unicorns to leprichans ratio
@JorgetePanete5 жыл бұрын
@@dvlce_music You forgot the question mark.
@dvlce_music5 жыл бұрын
@@JorgetePanete I bet you're fun at parties, huh?
@drewmur5 жыл бұрын
You have less than 1% chance of winning the 7th round, which rewards you with $128.
@drewmur5 жыл бұрын
@FishSticks True, I should have said you have a less than one percent chance of winning seven rounds consecutively. Although you can't get to round 7 without winning rounds 1-6
@eternalreign23135 жыл бұрын
What's the odds of winning the 20th or 30th round? 20 is worth $1,000,000, and 30 $1B.
@Drummin0035 жыл бұрын
@@eternalreign2313 The possibility of winning any number of times in a row = [(1/2^n) or (1/2)^n], where 1 = the number of possible winning positions on the coin during each round, 2 = the total number of positions on the coin (1 winning position & 1 losing position), n = the number of times you play. Or you can think of the "odds" as 1-in-2^n, where 2^n is equal to whatever the payoff is for that round. The odds for 20 wins in a row is 1-in-1,048,576 and 30 wins in a row is 1-in-1,073,741,824. The "Expected Payoff" is always equal to $1, because you are multiplying the payoff for that round (2^n), by the odds [(1/2^n) or (1/2)^n] of winning that particular round and every round before. The possibility of winning 100 times in a row is 1-in-1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000. If you made $10,000.00 every day (assuming 365 days in a year) it would take you 4,016,947,991,725,950,000 years (4.01694799172595 x 1 Quintillion) to collect that amount.
@KalOrtPor5 жыл бұрын
1 in 1,073,741,824 to win $1,073,741,824.....Mega Millions has gotten higher than that, and with odds of just 1 in 302,575,350. And it's $2 without any kind of extortion racket negotiation.
@ykhenessey39245 жыл бұрын
False. You donth have 50% chance of winning the 7th because if you lose before that you wont have a 7th round. Maybe a 7th first round of a new game but not a 7th round. So that guy was right and you were actually wrong
@RandomDucc-sj8pd2 жыл бұрын
2:05 I tested this with a computer simpulation and for the first few million trials the expected value hovered at around 24.
@travis26595 жыл бұрын
Video summary: "Value is subjective + math + real world examples + {infinite gain (always) = infinite loss}"...Good video!
@Mobay185 жыл бұрын
How to talk about 50/50 chance of winning for 12 minutes.
@OvertonWindex5 жыл бұрын
The add was the important bit. The rest is filler.
@NickRoman5 жыл бұрын
I think the point is for people who think about this stuff: caution: reality is not that simple.
@99xara995 жыл бұрын
It's not 50/50 at all tho. It's 100% to get $2 50/50 to get $4, everything above should be 0,5^n I think.
@Mobay185 жыл бұрын
@@99xara99 No! There are two sides of the coin. With each throw it is always Win/lose. This guy is just overthinking reality.
@silkwesir14445 жыл бұрын
@@OvertonWindex oh I had already forgotten there even was an ad. i skipped it with the right arrow key multiple times. since I discovered that trick, KZbin has gotten a lot easier! My previous method of trying to gauge by the tiny preview picture where the ad is going to end and then clicking to jump to there was much more hassle.
@OrionFyre5 жыл бұрын
"would have to be ok with infinite loss, and no one is ok with that..." Nihilist: hold my Nietzsche
@ChatGPTpowered5 жыл бұрын
Orion Fyre Nietzsche argued that nihilism would be the death of western society.
@bigbadt3924 жыл бұрын
Now that title is easy for anyone to see this randomly at 3am for no reason at all. Specially when there are 69k likes on the video
@Grandflea023 жыл бұрын
3am? Naw, I'm watching at 6am *Sleep is for the weak* And for the mentally stable.
@Tlactl5 жыл бұрын
darn, we can't use this to stock up on infinite supplies for the area 51 raid
@idontunderstandjokes83085 жыл бұрын
Tlactl that is why we are going in the first place
@Hydra-zr7ks5 жыл бұрын
Can someone explain to me what the whole deal with this Area 51 meme because I’ve even seen it in Minecraft vids so it must be serious or popular
@iamwrong22395 жыл бұрын
@@Hydra-zr7ks It started with a Facebook event post saying "Let's raid Area 51, they can't stop us all". It was a joke but like most things it gained traction across the internet and more people joined in. It has gotten to the point the American government had to issue a statement on it. That's my version of this story.
@sabrinagilberttt5 жыл бұрын
When he said "middle of the night if you can't sleep" I felt that It's 2:17am
@patroohb5 жыл бұрын
I red this at exactly 2.17 am
@jonasbolden5 жыл бұрын
It’s 2:09am for me right now
@airplayrule5 жыл бұрын
@@jonasbolden 2:53am here
@hristijanzdravkovski59705 жыл бұрын
3:31 when I write this
@mkaali5 жыл бұрын
Rookies
@guillis99524 жыл бұрын
I’d pay one dollar, lose at the first round, and then play again with one of my 2 dollars. Bam, broke the system, I don’t need infinite luck
@datdamndog3893 жыл бұрын
But you only get 1 try at the game tho
@akashp94713 жыл бұрын
I am perplexed by the ease of decision making you have shown. But the catch with math is, if it feels easy, it must be wrong.
@hackdano2 жыл бұрын
Assuming you're allowed to play for only 1 dollar. Id charge $20
@WelcomeFellow3 жыл бұрын
Your videos like always are some high quality content, thank you!
@Reddles375 жыл бұрын
But if you get rid of the infinite payout and cap the game at a maximum winning of 2^n, then the expected value is only n. So even if the casino had a trillion dollars to give out, the expected value would only be $40...
@brianvernaglia94495 жыл бұрын
This is huge. I hadnt thought about it this way!
@hellkaiserzane5 жыл бұрын
That sounds right I was also thinking the infinite payout is also infinitely unlikely to happen so the two infinites cancel each other out and your left with 2^n or have I gone horribly wrong here?
@callie45795 жыл бұрын
I am confused!
@rednecktash5 жыл бұрын
@@hellkaiserzane kevin didnt do the math right. in order to get infinite reward from it...you would have to devote infinite time to playing. the maximum reward would be, let's say, 50 years x 365 days x 18 hours per day x 60 minutes per hour x 60 seconds per minute x 1 coin flip per second (this can be done if you have two coins to play with.) this means you could achieve a maximum of about 10 billion coin flips, or a payoff of somewhere around 1*10^3,000,000. unfortunately, there's a 1/1*10^3,000,000 chance of that happening. unless you have the ability to rewind time to a precision within the space between two coin flips, the game isn't worth playing.
@hedgeearthridge68075 жыл бұрын
I love how deciding whether to play a game or not is a game in itself. Including trying to decide whether to buy the expensive Steam game now, or wait a few months for the sale...
@Epikk5 жыл бұрын
"If things go well, then... *things go well* -Kevin
@Oreos_HQ3 жыл бұрын
No one wants to empty their bank account to play this game” Poor people: Maniacal laughter
@Zorro91295 жыл бұрын
It's the economic principle of risk versus reward. What Bernoulli got wrong is assuming that an amount of money MUST be worth more to a poor man than to a rich man. It's easy to make this assumption but compare a poor ascetic who doesn't care about money to a rich miser. EVERYTHING, even money, has subjective value and cannot be measured with "utils" because utility is only ORDINAL. I'm glad that Kevin mentioned subjectivity but he needs to read some Mises. This video is great proof of the subjective theory of value.
@ryantaylor65305 жыл бұрын
This is also known as a Martingale strategy and was originally conceived of as a way to beat Roulette. The problem is that each individual spin or a roulette wheen like each flip of a coin is not determined based on the previous flip (just because the last flip came up heads does not mean the next is any more or less likely to come up tails.) So as the odds do not change the utility of the return decreases after each subsequent flip. The only time I have seen this actually work in any meaningful way is in trading as the next movement of a market has a direct relation to the previous movement and so the odds of up or down for example increase with every subsequent movement.
@ShannonMcDowell715 жыл бұрын
Another excellent video! And when I heard the line, "How much is a chance at infinite wealth worth to you?," my first thought was, "Oh no, Kevin's trying to sell me a multilevel marketing scheme." :-D
@leiftorbjorn56214 жыл бұрын
This is the first vsauce video where I knew this stuff from before and so I completely follow everything that’s going on, I feel so cool
@roccotarli7625 жыл бұрын
“... one plus one, plus one, plus one, plus one, pus whon, wus plun, ous hon, uhs one, uh heh, pleh, huh huh.” - Vsause Kevin 2019
@therealgamer81505 жыл бұрын
I’ve got an easier explanation. The probability of having a net loss approaches 1 the more you are prepared to pay. Which will put you off paying
@gargaduk5 жыл бұрын
Yes. The chance of winning that infinite amount is infinitely small and therefore 0...
@RafaelMunizYT2 жыл бұрын
@@gargaduk at some point the probability of you winning a coin flip will be lower than the probability of humans evolving to chickens
@Anonymous-df8it2 жыл бұрын
Exactly!
@dustinbachstein5 жыл бұрын
The expected value would be more important if not for the fact that the variance is also infinite in this game, which means something like "infinite risk". If one would be allowed to play the game several times in a row, say 100 times for 1 million dollars in total, then this would definitely be a good choice!
@jordanadkins18283 жыл бұрын
This game has one fatal flaw, what if the coin never lands on tails? You'd never get paid.
@cloverpepsi Жыл бұрын
0% chance for that though
@jordanadkins4362 Жыл бұрын
@@cloverpepsi The odds tend towards zero very quickly, but it’s not actually zero. The average human lifespan is around like 78? Can someone flip heads for 70+ years? Doubtful, but with infinite attempts I’m sure it would happen. Actually, that reminds me of the twilight zone episode where the guy always wins at the casino and never loses, then realizes he’s actually in Hell. Lol
@johnathanwhite48785 жыл бұрын
Nothing is Infinite Kevin.. we discussed this
@michuumichowski5 жыл бұрын
Cobblestone and water are.
@SergioEduP5 жыл бұрын
@@michuumichowski once we get to area 51 and unlock creative mode everything will become infinite
@michuumichowski5 жыл бұрын
@@SergioEduP Remember to place beds so we can respawn closer.
@yinyang12175 жыл бұрын
@@michuumichowski yeah and get enderpearls
@PaulMeranda5 жыл бұрын
Death Metal is *forever* 🙂
@tron7_5 жыл бұрын
everybody gangsta til kevin figures out the duplication glitch
@alainart5 жыл бұрын
Mrbeast should get people to play this game, but cap them off at 10 million dollars or something!
@imveryangryitsnotbutter5 жыл бұрын
$8,388,608
@Darkshadow-oq7rs5 жыл бұрын
Do you have a concept of how much exactly 10 million dollars is?
@GreenWoolf5 жыл бұрын
@@Darkshadow-oq7rs is it 9999999 dollars and 99cents?
@yab31464 жыл бұрын
And how likely do you think getting 10 million dollars in this game is?
@mlafleurhua2 жыл бұрын
Just saw this interesting video. It seems to me that the paradox stems from not factoring in the upfront cost to play into the expected value calculation. This then captures the fact that you need to obtain a sequence of a suitable length just to break even.
@thsisnw74505 жыл бұрын
You'll never know, How I got 422 likes 😉😊
@spoopy21804 жыл бұрын
This is a paradox
@hajamaja83214 жыл бұрын
Ths Isnw yoooo this just blew my blown mind
@matteussilvestre85834 жыл бұрын
Welcome to limits.
@emilior9344 жыл бұрын
Time is not infinite paradox solved!
@TheodoreJohnKaczynski9973 жыл бұрын
challenge to watch vsauce explain paradoxs before bed
@crispy0snake1835 жыл бұрын
If the game has one million players, the expected break even price for "The House" is $20.19, the best player in the million wins 19 times in a row before losing, bagging $1,048,576 dollars
@nssimpson3 жыл бұрын
But it could be a lot higher so the house could end up losing billions. I wonder if they had this game at the Trump casinos.
@aayushgupta81293 жыл бұрын
@@nssimpson Did you watch the whole video?
@nssimpson3 жыл бұрын
@@aayushgupta8129 yes
@megusta92685 жыл бұрын
when you pay $2999999 for a lottery ticket with a jackpot of $3000000 STONKS
@FistroMan4 жыл бұрын
THANKS for spending your time so I can spend mine watching your videos!
@blergblergblerg13435 жыл бұрын
That's just misinterpretation of expected value. It determins whether a game is profitable if the game is repeatable. It's necessarily relevant only when you've had several shots. This isnt math failing to describe something we perceive, we simply need to use something to quantify how fast the average gain converges towards the expected value.
@getrekt25265 жыл бұрын
Prénom Nom now this is big word time
@beep30385 жыл бұрын
@@getrekt2526 lol
@yinghungman44714 жыл бұрын
Me: *uses LastPass Also me: *forgets the password to LastPass *_Wait. That's illegal._*
@verdantbf4 жыл бұрын
That's really funny 😂 you've just earned a new subscriber_
@k-dog74424 жыл бұрын
Get last pass for last pass
@ryanxin18484 жыл бұрын
Marco Vissuet what if you forget the password to that
@eladfeldman11525 жыл бұрын
the problem with the game IS NOT the moral expectation.but that fact that in real life you can't really play infinite amounts of times. If you pay 10$ to play a single game, you will need to play 5 games to get 16$(on average), means you will need to pay 50$ for the chance to get 16$.
@prim165 жыл бұрын
Exactly!! Thank you
@raghavbhatnagar23294 жыл бұрын
You are connecting me again to sequences and series -nice to see math people together
@HaydenG_075 жыл бұрын
damn you missed opportunity to say the allergic to peanut butter person would be killed and rhyme it
@Kartik-yi5ki5 жыл бұрын
I reckon that was intentional on his part
@JavaIsnom5 жыл бұрын
he knows the world isn't ready for him to stop dropping bars 😔
@nicholasmachado36685 жыл бұрын
I WANT TO LOVE THIS COMMENT RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!
@LordMarcus5 жыл бұрын
10:12 "The other party [must] be comfortable with potentially infinite loss. And... no one is cool with that, so..." Oh, Kevin Kevin Kevin.
@MrToomanynamesgone5 жыл бұрын
Did anyone get confused when he explained the answer and realized that for his answer you were having to pay an additional dollar when you lost the flip to go for double prize. The payout odds for the game he originally proposed with the single pay at the front for a potential infinite number of flips should have different outcome
@mossadgynist5 жыл бұрын
Yeah, I'd be happy to pay $1 an infinite number of times to play an infinite number of games, but I'm still only gonna pay one dollar to play one game
@JorgetePanete5 жыл бұрын
You forgot the question mark.
@ludvigbergqvist2 ай бұрын
Well the expected value technically approaches $1/4, for the sum of all 1’s approaches 1/4. It’s according to the series 1-2+3-4+5… which can be simplified to 1+2+3+4… Using Ramanujan summation, the first series becomes 1/4 meaning that the second series also must become 1/4. So any price under $1/4 is worth investing.
@learecrouytae51605 жыл бұрын
10:07 "infinite loss and no one is cool with that" Mrbeast: I don't think so
@iane74744 жыл бұрын
Eat your cereal
@internetwizard4044 жыл бұрын
Eat your cereal
@verdantbf4 жыл бұрын
Eat your cereal
@ryanxin18484 жыл бұрын
Eat your cereal
@proloycodes4 жыл бұрын
drink your water
@itsVDROID5 жыл бұрын
Kevin: No ones cool with infinite loss Mr. Beast: I'm about to end this man's whole career
@aliabbaszoher56185 жыл бұрын
Me: I'll pay $10 to play this game Also Me: loses on the first flip 😭
@sergeant58485 жыл бұрын
Am I missing something here? It's not pay per turn, you elect how much you want to pay once for potentially "infinite turns". So pay 1c and watch your investment blossom.
@KalOrtPor5 жыл бұрын
This game would be a racket in practice for anything more than pocketchange since most people would already be out of the game by $4. Betting $2 on a roulette wheel and going all-in on your number coming up twice in a row would have better odds for a better payout.
@flux2025 жыл бұрын
Puts in another $10 and still loses
@StRanGerManY5 жыл бұрын
@@sergeant5848 yes, you are missing something here. You need to pay $10 for every new run.
@sergeant58485 жыл бұрын
@@StRanGerManY Nowhere in the first 5 minutes (i didn't bother to check the rest) does the video say you need to pay $10 per turn (or at anytime any value other than your initial wager). It implicitly asks how much would you pay for the privilege to play. Because I know the "trick" to this trick, I'd pay 1c. Even if I lose on the first round I'm guaranteed $2. If this is not the expected behaviour of the game, then Vsauce2 failed to explain the trick properly.
@someweirdstuff1256 Жыл бұрын
1:33 *”if things go really well, then things go really well.”* -vsauce2 best quote ever
@nameforcomments40925 жыл бұрын
"Who would ever want to play the part Of anonymous numbers on a governmental chart?"
@emanueleragno56165 жыл бұрын
gonna answer to this in about 5 years when i get this in my reccomended
@freds21504 жыл бұрын
8 months close enough.
@lusamine79254 жыл бұрын
1 year is better than nothing, 2020 has been pretty bad recently. May not make it...
@chrisschmeitz11393 жыл бұрын
@@lusamine7925 just what the heck man?!
@emanueleragno561629 күн бұрын
zamn
@jamespowers.gpa.5 жыл бұрын
I love Vsauce2 and 3 but micheal explains things in a way that makes me immediately get them where I feel here I’m hearing an explanation that’s 20 steps ahead of where I am watching it for the first time, don’t get me wrong I love it but what can I say micheals the best
@trentoninnewjersey2 жыл бұрын
I wasn’t exactly sure what this video would be as I didn’t read the title (as it autoplayed) but he asked “How much is a chance at infinite wealth worth”, and I thought “There is no way he’s asking this”
@xFlRSTx5 жыл бұрын
the value of money does not scale linearly... pretty simple
@xFlRSTx5 жыл бұрын
@@theloniousswitzer6258 maybe if he programmed it it would lol
@Zorro91295 жыл бұрын
Naturally, there is always a diminishing return on more of an identical good, making further units worth less. It's a basic economic principle and I recommend reading "Man, Economy, and State" by Murray Rothbard to delve into it further.
@eksskellybur5 жыл бұрын
Thank you, Kevin, for being my Math Teacher.
@saumitrachakravarty5 жыл бұрын
6:59 What do you mean by *Utiles* of Prize on the fourth column header? What does a large tropical African hardwood tree with timber have to do with all of this?
@DeonGaming5 жыл бұрын
I don't understand it either, but I googled large african hard wood, and I think I have a new fetish now.
@hehh71614 жыл бұрын
I'd pay my entire bank balance to play this. *laughs in £0.42*
@pendantperuke94403 жыл бұрын
*laughs in american* what the hell is that symbol
@pineapplesandwich39063 жыл бұрын
@@pendantperuke9440 euros I suppose
@CowsCanCook3 жыл бұрын
@@pendantperuke9440 it’s British pounds
@YellowpowR2 жыл бұрын
@@pendantperuke9440 WELL AT LEAST
@jeremeyodell4 жыл бұрын
The chart you drew is inaccurate. The first time I've EVER noticed an inaccuracy in your video. The $2 prize doesn't come from a 50% chance. It comes from a loss. The $4 prize comes from a 50% chance. So the expected value should be $2 down the whole column.
@zacharysancartier34543 жыл бұрын
ok smart guy. what percentage is the first $2?
@jrlopez1027.4 жыл бұрын
Mark rover that does a trick to flip heads or tails infinitely: *_BOSS MUSIC STARTS PLAYING_*
@fatsausage-animaatioita47173 жыл бұрын
Yoo crazy I didn't know they sent a new rover to Mars
@Chyllstorm5 жыл бұрын
"No matter how unlucky you are, you can't win less than $2!" Ha! With my luck, if I played, I'd owe $5800 in the first two minutes.
@Chyllstorm5 жыл бұрын
@@sebastianstan9655 issa joke
@sebastianstan96555 жыл бұрын
@@Chyllstorm oh sorry!
@sebastianstan96555 жыл бұрын
@@Chyllstorm I need to improve my humor actually... sorry 😂
@Chyllstorm5 жыл бұрын
@@sebastianstan9655 No worries. Hard to tell if people are joking sometimes online because of lack of tone and facial expressions!
@sebastianstan96555 жыл бұрын
@@Chyllstorm yeah
@robemeister4 жыл бұрын
I played this game 10 times and my winnings would have been $20. If I would've put in $5 a pop like I thought I would be losing by $30. So much for infinite gain.