The Most Insightful Hour in CRE - Part 17 with Dr. Peter Linneman

Willy was once again joined by Dr. Peter Linneman for the Most Insightful Hour in CRE - and if you didn’t catch it live, you’re going to want to tune into the replay.
They discussed topics from the newly released Spring Linneman Letter, including inflation projections, job growth, vacancy and absorption rates, GDP growth expectations, immigration, household wealth, a breakdown of the asset classes, the tie between economic growth and climate change, and much more.
Watch or listen to the replay.
If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions.
Key Points In The Webcast:
00:00 Introduction
02:00 2023 Q4 outcomes
06:51 Where is true rental headed?
10:40 End-of-the-year Fed funds rate outlook
11:47 Should interest rates be a cause for concern?
14:26 GDP growth and the factor of immigration
20:29 Is consumer confidence declining?
25:50 Unemployment, government support, and individual net worth
33:15 Managing the increasing government debt
37:15 Consumers’ financial health: a downward trajectory?
40:33 Money market funds: where is it going?
44:02 Office spaces are not in demand
47:46 Bank default rates and delinquencies
51:29 The future of single-family and multi-family development
56:13 Private stock prices and cap rates
01:01:51 Is the Paris Accords worth the trade?
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[@WalkerDunlop]

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[@golfinguru11]

So many gems in here. My favorite segment on this podcast (the only reason I watch really). Waiting on part 18.

[@brentbarker3233]

Inflation from quantitative debt is significant - due to the low productive period during the virus business. The Fed has few tools - one is rates. The rest is policy - energy, immigration, etc. 75% of the new job growth goes to immigrant cheap labor. All are driving the standard of living to the bottom.

[@Captainsmileydude]

At 27:29 So you both know, it’s not that people age 62 years or older are choosing not to work, it’s that they’re NOT GETTING HIRED! And. they can’t file for unemployment insurance becuase THEY’VE BEEN OUT OF WORK FOR LONGER THAN THEIR ELIGIBILITY. Everyone I know in this age group who want to work CAN’T GET HIRED.

[@davidj3100]

As the host pointed out, Linneman has been wrong on interest rates for quite a while. He is still most likely wrong on his view today that big rate cuts are coming this year.