The next general election: A repeat of 1992 or 1997?

“I would be astonished if the Conservative Party got another majority… It’s not out of the question that Labour doesn’t get a majority.”
Daniel Finkelstein and David Aaronovitch cast their judgment on whether the next general election will be like 1992 - a surprise Tory victory - or 1997 - a catastrophic end after years in power.
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[@Red-px1fr]

I hope the Tories get absolutely obliterated at the next GE and it can't come soon enough. I also hope people realise the seriousness of the damage they've done to the country and never forget or forgive.

[@kordellswoffer1520]

Name me that damage

[@Mr.m107]

​@@kordellswoffer1520you country is new Italy in European continent.

[@horatiohuskisson5471]

@@kordellswoffer1520 austerity, Brexit, corruption, cronyism has all led to public services declining over the past 13 years, the pound being weaker, wages stagnation, inflation being the biggest in the G7 and our global standing permanently damaged. Oh but it’s never been better to be part of the 1% though, Tories take care of their own. They need to be obliterated at the next election. The U.K. needs the Tories to be in opposition for at least 20 years for us to recover.

[@kordellswoffer1520]

@@horatiohuskisson5471 partisan fantasy. The uk is not the weakest nation in the g7 nor does it have the highest inflation. Wages have stagnated since 2008 and that was caused by the recession a recession labour caused. Brexit hasn’t caused harm to public services austerity has and that’s what sane people call financial responsibility. The uk has struggled for many decades and I fail to see how labour of all party’s would help without actually just expanding the fire.

[@seansimkins774]

@@kordellswoffer1520where tonstart lol. Just look around you

[@The_schoville]

Not as big of a victory like in 1997 due to polarization but it'll def still be a landslide! Wishing for the best for the UK from the USA 🙏 🌹🌹🌹🌹

[@ANDY1985UK2011]

very likely as big as 1997 , the tories may get lower than the 165 seats they got

[@johnallen7807]

What a dreadful prospect! We need PR and a completely need set of politicians.

[@Mike-br8zt]

Agree

[@nicks4934]

Yep

[@craigfowler7098]

100% and only way to ensure these self entitled, born to rule Eton / Bullingdon Club idiots never see power again

[@johnallen7807]

@@craigfowler7098 The only worst prospect would be "Cur" Keir Starmer and his mob! lol.

[@craigfowler7098]

@@johnallen7807 We will have to agree to disagree on that one, but support PR

[@craigfowler7098]

Day after 1997 was happiest day of my life Let's hope I am yet to see my happiest day.

[@kordellswoffer1520]

Why it lead to the worst prime minister in the countries history holding power for a decade

[@Randomguy-kz7sk]

⁠​⁠@@kordellswoffer1520”worst prime minister in the countries history”. Two words. Liz Truss.

[@kordellswoffer1520]

@@Randomguy-kz7sk she was barely prime minister.

[@thatweatherman4411]

@@kordellswoffer1520 Yeah, but during her barely time as Prime Minister, she pretty much almost devalued our currency

[@2097xl]

​@@kordellswoffer1520 13 years of labour = 2 prime ministers (Blair & Brown) 14 years of Tory = 5 Prime Ministers (Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss & Shitnak)

[@pip1723]

Labour clearing up the tories mess sounds about right.

[@watchflexwatchflex5956]

Make a change as it has always been other way round

[@pip1723]

Based on what?

[@anonUK]

From a majority of 80 to a total of 80. Here's hoping!

[@endzone13]

"80 to 80" the tories love any 3 word slogan 😂😂🤣

[@Gleifel]

@@endzone13 amazing

[@echo9996]

I have never been a Labour Supporter but this current Conservative party has destroyed what made Britain Great and the standard of Governance is the worst I have seen in my life time ,it is a very very sad situation..They need to Go....

[@rhysholdaway]

I'm hoping it won't be like the 1992 election but more like the 1922 general election. Hopefully, we can then end the Conservative Party's chance of winning an election for the next 100 years.

[@liamb8644]

I think it was the Liberals who suffered that fate in 1922.

[@rhysholdaway]

@@liamb8644 it was... 🤞

[@memofromessex]

Labour's polling is improving strongly, Rishi hasn't been good enough (despite him not being a bad fella) and another leader will be spell doom for the Tories. I hope the Tories lose and lose so badly that they are the third party - and the Lib Dems are the shadow party.

[@proskipper1]

Tories need to learn that they are public servants and that Govt is not just a means to line own pockets and inflate their egos.

[@xavierhucklenbruch1798]

It's going to be way worse than 97. I think the tories will fall to 20 seats

[@baltasarnoreno5973]

Thats 20 too many

[@Da1Dez]

I'll look forward to returning to this comment when it's happened.

[@kordellswoffer1520]

You’re clearly insane.

[@BossySwan]

Lol

[@user-bu9nb8wr6e]

I just spoke to 3 ladies that I know that voted for Boris last time and all 3 said no way this time. I don't know one person that is going to vote Conservative this time around and I know a lot of fairly well of people.

[@Matt-cz6ti]

My father voted Tory religiously for 30 years, including at the Blair landslides in 97 and 2001. He says he’ll never vote for them again

[@pip1723]

My neighbours both side's are stornch tories but to my surprise whilst chatting they said they will be voting Labour at the next election.

[@xavierhucklenbruch1798]

Same here.

[@nicks4934]

Silly moos

[@kordellswoffer1520]

@@Matt-cz6ti than he’s a fool.

[@Lamilton82828]

Liberal communist??????

[@dub604]

Starmer reminds me of Kinnock sometimes... 😟

[@tyronebiggums8660]

Why

[@dub604]

@@tyronebiggums8660 You obviously don't remember Kinnock.

[@Da1Dez]

​​@@tyronebiggums8660 Trying too hard and thinking he's already got it before we've even had the election.

[@tyronebiggums8660]

@@Da1Dez are you advocating that a leader of a political party trying to be prime minister should… try less? And I don’t think it is true that Starmer thinks he has already won. He has actually been very careful not to be complacent.

[@andymatthews9132]

Oh no way, completely different people and personalities!

[@Da1Dez]

I want to believe it'll be 1997, but I don't since Labour are far too behind in seat numbers and some of the seats labour will apparently gain, according to the current polls, I really can't see going red. For example, Suffolk Coastal going red..... seriously??? A constituency with Southwold, Felixstowe and Aldeburgh?... the retirement towns for posh elderly who love Tories! It will be 1992 situation, please prove me wrong if you are from the future.

[@briandelaney9710]

Canterbury went red

[@Da1Dez]

​@@briandelaney9710 Because it has a university filled with left wing students, some of the predicted seats don't have that.

[@moynanplayz5379]

Won’t be a Blair majority but it will be big with labour winning around 380-85 seats

[@endzone13]

I think it will be a quiet 1997. The only difference is 1997 was happy and exciting and 2024 is sad and depressing. When a seat like Mid Bedfordshire goes red for the first time ever, not even red in the Blair Landslide it shows alot about the next election.

[@Da1Dez]

​@endzone13 Still dunno what Redwall voters think of Starmer though.

[@davidnichol6282]

What about the silent voter who doesn't show their hand until election day? No poll can monitor that situation.

[@justintcb5189]

18 minutes to say 'I don't know what the result will be'

[@rogerpenroset.blaine4233]

I mean there's no SNP-controlled Scotland in 1997. Labour's win will be big but never be as big as tony's

[@DSQueenie]

Have you seen the SNP lately?

[@rogerpenroset.blaine4233]

@@DSQueenie yeah I know, i wrote that like months ago. SNP without sturgeon will be struggling too

[@DSQueenie]

@@rogerpenroset.blaine4233 things are changing so quickly lately to be fair.

[@endzone13]

Just another update, Labour took a seat from the SNP with a 22% swing. We are used to them from the tories to Labour but from the SNP is absolutely insane. Almost all SNP seats are marginal even a 2% swing in every SNP seat would be devastating the SNP and Tories are facing a joint wipeout at the next General Election, its gonna be like 1997-2004

[@grampawwillie1665]

it's not history that repeats itself: it's human behavior

[@progressivepath1995]

Most likely the Tories will get around 120 seats next time. There are still that silent hardened voter base of 20-30% that won’t go away that will vote on election night. Means the SNP wouldn’t be the official opposition. But yes the Tories have really stuffed up this time and deserve to be out for 25 years.

[@DSQueenie]

Frankly I think it’s likely the SNP will lose seats to Labour and the Conservatives.

[@progressivepath1995]

@@DSQueenie Yeah, since I said that 2 months they seem to be tanking in Scotland with the Tories staying around the same figure, so the Tories will retain what they have and if things don’t change Labour might win around 20 seats in Scotland. In Wales I think the Tories won’t get any BTW.

[@catmonarchist8920]

​@@progressivepath1995Not even Monmouth and Pembrokeshire?

[@progressivepath1995]

@@catmonarchist8920 No think even David Davies will be out next election.

[@moynanplayz5379]

Exactly what I think will happen at the next election

[@dnlphlptt]

"Not out the question neither Labour or Tory score a majority at the next GE"

[@samuelmorel9340]

Im from the US so my info is just academic, but I could see a labour lib dem coalition

[@shaun906]

funny, ive been asking myself the same question. 92 was the first election i could vote in and it was depressing.

[@stephenwise2735]

Why worse? Surely a heavier defeat for the Tories is better!

[@rohitballal5654]

Remember the Times is a Tory paper.

[@BillsCountrysideAdventures]

I hate the tories now, I really hate this country and used to love my country, but I'm voting reform UK.

[@spartacusforlife1508]

Isn't the next election likely to result in a Labour minority government? I don't see a tidal wave of support for keir starmer even with the worst government of modern times. I believe the SDP will make large inroads into Conservative seatsand LABOUR making some

[@endzone13]

The support is there it just isn't showing like in 1997 because things are extremely depressing and nothing works and there's no hope among the population after the last 14 years. It will probably be a 1997 like landslide nonetheless because labour connects with the mood of the country

[@BossySwan]

I wouldn’t bet on a Labour win just yet.

[@arlosmith2784]

What about the possibility that the next election will produce a hung Parliament? Remember voters in UK have more than two choices.

[@Joe-og6br]

5 months later. Polls are still 20%

[@arandmorgan]

According to the pols it will be much better than that

[@davidnettleton7084]

Neither. No two general elections are the same.

[@cobbler40]

GB news/TalkTV/Radio will be in overdrive if it looks like labour will win.

[@horatiohuskisson5471]

Many Tories flocking to reform as well as Labour, also people are more adept to tactical voting which would benefit Lib Dems and Greens. They could end up with sub-100 seats.

[@Joe-og6br]

Yes they local election were interesting. People in some places dumping Labour to get the LibDems to win. In other places it was the othernway around. I really wish the Greens didn't compete in the GE as they take away a vital few percent from LibDem or Labour.

[@cobbler40]

A lot more suffering for mortgage holders before the election

[@BossySwan]

Only suffering for the foolish individuals that have overstretched themselves.

[@Joe-og6br]

I reckon Tories will win. This has 2015 written all over it. Miliband was ahead in the polls for ages. But when push came to shove people just didn't think he'd do the job.

[@BossySwan]

Exactly

[@thatweatherman4411]

Miliband had Leads of 2-5%. These are leads of 25-30%

[@moynanplayz5379]

The polls are consistently 15-20% ahead while Miliband never had more than a 7-8% lead but most polls had them 3-5% ahead which never guaranteed them to be even the largest party let alone a majority

[@endzone13]

Governments VERY rarely get 4 full 4 or 5 year terms. If the Tories win the next Election, they will have been in longer than Thatcher and Major the mood of the country is changing and the Conservatives are running for the bus to stop

[@ianlewis2813]

I have always voted conservative, but for the first time in my life I am not going to vote .. I just can't vote Labour.

[@col.hertford9855]

You have my pity. Such tribalism is beneath you.

[@BritishRepublicsn]

Not voting will change nothing. If you absolutely can't vote for anyone, spoil your ballot, or vote for joke parties. Not voting will just put you with the 'too lazy to vote' crowd. It won't send any other meaningful message. V O T E

[@andymatthews9132]

Someone so brainwashed they can't see past Tories. At least put your cross by someone😮

[@peterfox2538]

Depends what party the WEF want,vote reform.

[@californiadreamin8423]

What do I do to become a member ? Edit: No answer after 2 weeks !!! Wonder why.

[@arandmorgan]

No. They have no future. They hate migrants. We have an aging population and our birth rate is shrinking. It's either we have more children or we take on migrants to find the taxes to pay for the pensions. It isn't possible for many to afford children and relationships are becoming more unstable. Who will pay for the pensions?

[@danielsanderson4926]

Nonsense claptrap 😂