The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach for Public Policy

Government Foresight Community (GFC) Masterclass seminars
with Rafael Ramirez, 2024/04/03
Scenario planning can play a crucial role in governmental and organisational contexts but only if the user and purpose of doing it are defined explicitly. It is dynamic in nature, evolving in response to shifting context and can address imminent challenges and shape strategic decisions effectively. Central to this approach, ‘’Strategy Reframing’’ is one of the essential steps for effective foresight and a key methodology to combat misleading prejudgments and failed strategies that can lead to inaccurate predictions. Strategic reframing enhances decision making by immersing stakeholders into future-scenarios which challenge deep pre-conceived assumptions and provide a structured approach to address future uncertainties. When designing scenarios, a holistic vision is required, recognizing the differences between the narrow and immediate perspective and the broader contextual environment. Contrary to a positivist view, the Oxford approach gives emphasis on understanding the causal dynamics of turbulent environments from the specific user’s point of view, challenging organisations to consider external contexts rather than focusing solely on internal strategies and re-asses underlying assumptions.
Government Foresight Community (GFC) Masterclass seminars are monthly virtual seminars, open to foresight practitioners across the world, invite foresight experts to present their experiences and practices followed by Q & A. Recordings of the speaker's presentations and related materials are made available online.
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Speaker bio: Rafael Ramirez | www.linkedin.c...