The Raptors are card-counting in Vegas

The Toronto Raptors exited the Cooper Flagg Sweepstakes early last season, opting to trade OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam for still-very-servicable players including Immanual Quickley, RJ Barrett, Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk, whilst holding onto the likes of Jakob Poeltl despite numerous suitors. The Raptors bet big on upside in 2021 with Barnes (and hit big), 2023 with Dick, and 2024 with 4 rookies, 1 or 2 of whom they expect to be at least serviceable role players.
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The Toronto Raptors are NOT contenders, nor should anyone be penciling them in for a playoff spot in the East. However, with the recent developments in Brooklyn, Washington, Portland, Chicago, and the continued crimes against humanity that are happening in Detroit and Charlotte, the Raptors can be at best the 7th worst team in the league, and at worst, the 14th.
These are not Cooper Flagg odds. These are Dink Pate odds. And with 3 picks in the next 2 drafts, drafts which are loaded with plenty of exciting prospects, the Raptors will at least to start, aim to be extremely competitive. In this video, I'll take you through WHY tanking so rarely, if ever, works, why the Raptors play the odds the way they do, and why the Raptors are in the perfect position to pivot mid-season IF* the odds DO suddenly flip in their favour.
As constructed, the Raptors have a chance to go only one way - and that way is forward. The path to going backwards involved trading Anunoby for a pick-heavy package, taking on bloated contracts like Chris Paul while sending value out, declining Kelly Olynyk's extension, and likely setting Scottie Barnes up for one of the most depressing offseasons of his life.
#Raptors #CooperFlagg #NBA

[@darrylmwarabu5747]

This guy is the face of Raptors KZbin, there’s always great insight in every live, the pensare basketball 2025 leap is gonna be crazy

[@princebeats3767]

Chill his perspectives are interesting but the face of raps youtube is nba chev and raptors digest

[@darrylmwarabu5747]

NBA chev? The guy who said Jonathan Mogbo could be the next precious? Or that Ulrich Chomche is a Giannis type? He aint the face of shit lmao . Yall watch these guys just because they tell you whats pleasing to the ear

[@princebeats3767]

@@darrylmwarabu5747 chomche is a 7 foot 18 year old with a 7’4 wingspan who’s an athletic freak seems like a good recipe for something special in the future to me and no one ever thought giannis would be giannis plus where back to having to best development staff in the nba so the sky is the limit

[@HiAmDerks]

⁠​⁠@@princebeats3767so basically you watch chev because you want to hear what’s pleasing to the ear…

[@youtubewatcherforfun]

Rob is locked in post draft. Having less NBA content to feed off has Rob digging deep in his bag.

[@Tom-qi7vs]

Yea…he’s the kyrie of the podcast game, deepest in the game, the other podcast are either talking only on hot news or rumors… good job sir.

[@rulz2663]

I would say changing our roster is big content.

[@johnhamilton2914]

Your trifecta of lives lately and players choice proves you are a cut above other content creators. I especially enjoyed the one about agents and doing favours. No one else has done such a deep dive in the human aspect of trades. I believe you're right about Cam Johnson, hopefully other teams don't make it more difficult for the Raptors to get him. Well done Rob respect the grind.

[@pensarebasketball]

Praying I'm right on Cam as well. Hope people can understand what a brilliant player he is and how much his stock has fallen right now.

[@michaelpester532]

@@pensarebasketballunfortunately most our fans These have no clue what good players actually are. They just want draft picks.

[@alexanderb2911]

I think the Raptors vision is quite clear, maybe not to most but to some it’s very clear. The Raptors are building a team that’s based off of trust, belief and faith. They are trying to build a team that’s kind of like a family, and what do your families do? They invest in their family. You show that you believe in them with that investment, all you need to do afterwards is let them control what they can control while giving them guidance along to way. If it pans out that’s great, if it doesn’t well you have pivot and find something that works. Some have to take a step back to regroup in order to take two steps forward. The team as constructed is not ideal, but I believe the Raptors are far from finished when constructing their roster come opening night. To be honest this is the most excited I’ve been for an upcoming Raptor season in quite sometime. We finally have a young core, some may say it’s not the most talented young core but I still believe and have faith that this team will grow together and will eventually accomplish great things in the future. The future is finally looking bright, something that could not be said in the past.

[@pensarebasketball]

Amen

[@KarenLHall113]

Very impressive reasoning and presentation, Rob. “You can’t wait for the proof before you see the vision” - I love that. Your theory is fascinating. I can’t wait to see how it all plays out.

[@shawncollins1025]

Quickley and Barnes, have been given the keys to the franchise. All athletes just want the opportunity to shine. It's a Character test. It's going to be fun to watch and cheer!! To how far they can climb the ladder. Thanks for the depth, much better than the off the cuff opinions floating around. Great job Rob

[@JetsCentral]

Love the channel man👍🏻

[@danielharris5913]

Really enjoying the content down here in Australia, keep up these deep dives & great discussions

[@pensarebasketball]

Thanks. Gonna pause for a bit and get back to this next week unless something huge comes out. Would like to make some videos and also just sleep a bit after the last 2 weeks.

[@_kevrae]

Well desserved rest​@@pensarebasketball

[@kickassproductions14]

Anybody who thinks the Raptors intent going into the season is tanking, is way off base, the Raptors wìll give this team the runway and if things aren't looking great around late December going into the new year, that's when you pivot, but you have to give this roster a chance first. Still holding out hopes for a BB trade, I think dragging this thing out until the deadline is the wrong move, hopefully most of, if not all of the GMs convening in Summer League helps expedite the process.

[@AndreInThe416]

That tactic results in picking 7th to 10th. Not exactly optimal but instead relying on good fortune.

[@kickassproductions14]

@@AndreInThe416 I trust that they can find a good player no matter where they'd be picking, that being said I hope we get a lottery pick next year but that doesn't mean I want them to totally bottom out, you can be in the play-in and still be picking 10th. Hopefully if things do start off rough, they will pivot accordingly, also for the love of good pls trade Bruce Brown

[@rovinsingh4698]

This is why you need to get players like Ulrich Chomche. Your next star isn't going to be drafted at 5 like Scottie Barnes but rather closer to Fred Van Vleets undrafted. If you don't have lottery picks, you will need to take swings at low picks with low floors but lottery potential. There aren't many. I can totally see Ulrich Chomche turning into Myles Turner for the Raptors. He's got grown man size and strength, floor spacer skills and has some of the raw tools on defence of Pascal Siakam and Christian Koloko. I liked the pick a lot. Yeah.. can he defend guards and NBA offenses right now? No way. But could he get there, to that level, if he really puts in work? Yeah. I wanna see how much development work this guy puts in because he seems like a guy who's gonna carve out a role in this league based on his work ethic and his size. Give me an athletic freak who can work ALL DAY at the center position! Next Bismack Biyombo.

[@pensarebasketball]

Is he the next Biyombo, the next FVV or the next Jordan. I'm confused.

[@cpnstbn1266]

Your last three videos have been some of the best I’ve ever seen from your channel. It changed my perspective on the draft, trades and the raptors front office as well. I was one of the ones who was mad the raptors weren’t tanking but now I feel better about the teams’ trajectory.

[@pensarebasketball]

Glad you like them!

[@kianlahey608]

Great live I would know way less about basketball if it wasn’t for these lives found this Chanel 2 years ago now I think and haven’t stopped watching keep it up

[@ryank794]

For last two season, i have been your big fan and also big hater. Agree or disagree on your thought, you got an insight that makes me visit here and watch your video.

[@pensarebasketball]

It's cool. Haters and fans alike are welcome. If it's respectful, it's chill.

[@SP.007]

40:45 - I feel like any of the incentives, after the max (like All-NBA) shouldn't count towards the luxury tax, maybe even the salary cap. The voters can manipulate the vote in a way that affects the both.

[@user-qq4vm5bi3n]

Looks like Sasha going back to Greece Rob. What happens with his open salary? If im not mistaken over 6 million a year for 2 more years

[@pensarebasketball]

@@user-qq4vm5bi3n it's not for 2 years. It's for 1 year with a team option on year 2. So really you'd just need to buyout the 1 year for a nominal amount and then use that roster spot on whoever you want to absorb.

[@rontellem1547]

Do we have the money/ assests to get Wiggins and Cam Johnson? That'd be solid

[@pensarebasketball]

I don't think both. But Cam is not only the better player, he's also the much better fit.

[@user-uh6vc5bi2p]

Look at Detroit... Raps will play to win.. Sports Karma is real. Ask Kawai and the clippers. We Should try to win a Chip the upcoming season however unreasonable that may seem. Teams that try to cheat the game will be punished

[@warwolf88]

I always said that tanking was a waste of time u can't bet your teams future on some rookie

[@krooshall]

Flyer on Orlando Robinson, one more project to add to the pot!

[@Matt-ul2rf]

Great video. I think they are in a position to go both ways. If they do not start well, they can still tank by playing a lot of the young players.

[@danielfranklin2344]

Hi Rob what are your thoughts on Jabari Smith Jr? Could raptors trade for him? Possibly with a 3rd team like Pels and Ingram?

[@pensarebasketball]

I really like him. I don't think he's very gettable.

[@rbannister4380]

If the order of next years draft is Pistons, Lakers, Heat. Do you think Cooper Fagg's agent trys to persuade Detroit into not drafting him?

[@pensarebasketball]

Gonna be hard. No I think in that case he'll just have to go if he's the clear #1.

[@RyanSheppard-tq4pg]

Tanking? What is this 98'?

[@1dimedroppa]

Very engaging video 🔥

[@pensarebasketball]

Thank you 🙌

[@AndreInThe416]

If Zach Edey starts, he will likely lead rookies in win shares.

[@pensarebasketball]

I was thinking that too after the video. You're right.

[@bryanlouro140]

Branden Carleson can probably contribute right away.

[@pensarebasketball]

I very much doubt he can physically compete right now, esp defensively. But he should get 10-12 games to prove his worth if the season goes south. And worst case, he CAN shoot.

[@mjad7]

Win shares is a flawed stat in team basketball since it relies heavily on how many wins the team has had and how much playing time the player had. Lively is 1st mainly because he played 24 minutes a night on a 50 win team. That means they had 150 total win shares to distribute to players. Whereas the spurs only had 66 win shares to distribute. Naturally a 12th overall pick that gets a lot of playing time on a winning team should lead in win shares.

[@pensarebasketball]

That's not entirely accurate in terms of how win shares are calculated. Do me a favor and go check how many TOTAL win shares the Spurs had and tell me when you get to 66. Actually you won't even get to 30. Wemby had a terribly inefficient start to the season. I acknowledged the stat isn't perfect. But literally any stat would lead you to a very similar distribution

[@illDefine1]

"Win Shares is a player statistic which attempts to divvy up credit for team success to the individuals on the team." Not perfect but certainly more of an individual stat than a team stat.

[@OakTree34]

Thank you for expanding on your initial thoughts from the last live into a well thought out hypothesis.

[@Biggdirt1]

How can you have alot of winshares when you play for a weaker team?

[@pensarebasketball]

Check out basketball reference for the full Win Share breakdown and calculation. It's perfectly possible for a very good player to have high win shares on a bad team. Good example would likely be Michael or LeBron in their early years.

[@jeanraymond9114]

Great video

[@pensarebasketball]

Thanks!

[@lijo-xw4mg]

Brilliant live rob. Great insights as always.

[@michaeltodd9753]

Raptors content that always leaves me feeling content! Thanks Rob👏

[@pensarebasketball]

My pleasure!

[@grahamkennedy5748]

Great video Rob. I can’t handle another season like last year. I am sure it is worse for those guys. Masai is obsessed with winning. All the guys on the team have won their entire life, they aren’t programmed to tank. We will continue to find and develop talent wherever we draft.

[@OakTree34]

BTW. Loved your The Panel live. Indeed your VORP is increasing there, I would say it's going hyperbolic.

[@pensarebasketball]

Good to know! Heading for that Jokić VORP

[@r.d.vaughan4541]

Great facts to back your argument. I'll also say I sure hope they you are right that they balance this roster to Darko and core has a chance of advancing the "plan".

[@sedchff123]

Good job 👏 👍 👌

[@pensarebasketball]

Thanks

[@416nameless]

Rowberto doing God’s work.

[@lancescott9851]

Great content. Well explained and logic driven. Now sleep please!

[@pensarebasketball]

😴

[@natesportsfanatic4670]

i dont think you understand what that means lol

[@pensarebasketball]

Understand what? Card counting?

[@natesportsfanatic4670]

@@pensarebasketball what you are implying is that the raptors are cheating. That's what card counting is

[@pensarebasketball]

@@natesportsfanatic4670 I'm implying they're tilting the odds in their favor by factoring for the math of success as variables shift. Do you understand now?

[@natesportsfanatic4670]

@@pensarebasketball I understand what counting cards is and that's cheating if you are saying the raptors are counting cards you are saying they are cheating so if that's not what you are trying to say then you need to say something else

[@pensarebasketball]

Cool. I don't really want to debate this further since we're going in circles. Counting cards is a form of generating an advantage through math. Here. Google search results has an answer for your concerns. "The biggest myth in casino gaming is that card counting is illegal. It's not, but casinos don't like it. You're on the casino's private property, so they have the right to remove you at any time."

[@pimhoff]

Brilliant take. Winning a championship requires a bit (or a lot) of luck. Being a consistently competitive team requires a solid scouting, coaching and development process. Without that, you have no chance at championship luck.

[@cpnstbn1266]

Yeah the analogy to cards was a good one. Like in poker it takes both skill and luck. The raptors pushed all in with Kawhi and Gasol and it worked out, as GS had some bad luck with Thompson and Durant. Hopefully at some point they develop enough assets to be able to do the same in the future and be stacked on the bench, at Center etc. Trade for a star on an expiring contract and push all in when the time is right