The Real Chances of Russia Collapsing

[@VladVexler]

WATCH NEXT: Why All Russians Are Responsible for Putin's War kzbin.info/www/bejne/mmLTgJSeppmHec0 Why Losing Crimea May Destroy Putin https:/kzbin.info/www/bejne/hGemeJWPhq6JgNU How Putin Fooled the Western Left kzbin.info/www/bejne/ZmKaiHqwf5qZfqM It's HERE: the end of the Western-led global order kzbin.info/www/bejne/bIXQnpuththkZtU ------- You can now support Vlad's work on Patreon! www.patreon.com/vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB ------- WATCH MORE: Why Russian History Repeats itself (Putin and his hero Alexander III) kzbin.info/www/bejne/mIitm6WOi9B5eKM THIS explains why Russia starts insane wars kzbin.info/www/bejne/jGe4mniOp7ulrMk The Postmodern Hell Of Russian Propaganda kzbin.info/www/bejne/lZuZh5ptrrGra5Y Why Russians Struggle To Transcend Imperialism kzbin.info/www/bejne/Z2OzdGl3n6mepNU Why I left the USSR....and why post-Soviet Russia failed kzbin.info/www/bejne/bnPFiaSbjJygsJo The Riddle of Why Russians Don't Protest kzbin.info/www/bejne/gWWyZHdteMuHnqM

[@demitsuru]

Where did you get statistics about ethnicity? ...from Russians? mixed russians also russians? You talk about ethnicity, but many russians look not like slavs.

[@ИгорьДьяконов-п3е]

@@demitsuru More than 150 nationalities live in Russia in peace and harmony. The presenter simply does not know the history of Russia

[@magnusj9628]

Agree. This channel provides super biased opinions based on fantasies. I do not understand how It even has followers@@ИгорьДьяконов-п3е

[@ИгорьДьяконов-п3е]

@@magnusj9628 That's how I understood it, thank you. The presenter is not objective and is not interesting to listen to.

[@timverrecchia1654]

@@ИгорьДьяконов-п3е the point he was making clearly flew over your head

[@paulineisakova7618]

As a proud Siberian of mostly Russian ancestry, I must aknowledge that your understanding of the topic is way clearer than any of the public speaker I've heard has. Great job and thank you, Vlad!

[@Hhggggggguioo-lq8pj]

All Russian go back to Moscow ..

[@johnshelton1141]

The idea to replace the Russia

[@johnshelton1141]

Federation with a Federation of Eurasian Republics, where a Russian republic would just many as Illinois is just one of fifty states.

[@petermcgrath5215]

Except for his Ukrainian analysis

[@gerardvila4685]

The pessimist says "It can't get worse ☹️". The optimist says "Of course it can 😊" Heard in Moscow, end of 1980s.

[@plinpain]

Brilliant

[@bimmebeau]

In Russia, a pessimist is a well-informed optimist.

[@graemesydney38]

........... and PooTin said, 'hold my vodka'.........

[@secretbassrigs]

Lol

[@secretbassrigs]

Are you sure you're not talking about the Communist Party of China?

[@thedownwardmachine]

“Thing are never so bad they can’t get worse.” Both a great book and an important point to remember.

[@formes2388]

There is a point where it CAN NOT get any worse for the species - Extinction. Mind you, compared to destitute struggle to survive - that might be an improvement. Lets hope we never ever get to that point though. I know, I know - devils advocate being an irritating thing, but - there is always a point that is so bad it literally can't get worse. However, that point is so bad it's kind of not easy to imagine what that looks like.

[@zarinaromanets7290]

​@formes2388 That's an interesting point. There may come a point where ethnic people feel like they are on the verge of being erased under the current regime and may use that as a last stand. Who knows if it'll work though. To answer his question "what holds people together in a given location", it has classically been dependency on the state for infrastructure/resources. The way they initially won people over was introduce them to western infrastructure and make the older ways obsolete, so people need them to function now. If things were to get so bad people are willing to give up, say, cell phones, then it has gotten bad enough that it can't get worse.

[@marktrotter8971]

This is a "must watch" for anyone wanting to understand the Imperial/Colonial make-up of Russia and the possibility and implications / mess of any break-up. Thank you Vlad, this has informed me greatly.

[@RowanJones-lp6iu]

I appreciate how moderate and well thought your views are. It’s hard to find content like this anywhere.

[@VladVexler]

Thanks so much.

[@Grace.allovertheplace]

I agree with you

[@DjokovicTheGoat]

Of course a Russian Jew dreams of break up of Russia. Stay in Israel

[@RandomGuy-lu1en]

@@VladVexler are you sure about the russian majority? In many countries with discrimination, people tend to identify themselves as part of the ethnic majority when asked about it.

[@shorgoth]

it isn't "moderate" it is nuanced, big difference

[@frufruJ]

15:20 There's this Czech joke: Q: Which countries does Russia border with? A: Whichever it wants.

[@pkrpawel1]

@sxnap3480 we have the same joke about Polish-Chinese border on Ural :)

[@ffff7164]

huge China. +100

[@Delfigamer1]

@sxnap3480 I seem to not understanding the joke, because if Russia is considered the "Finnish-Chinese border", then there's a pretty major incident happening there right at this moment. 🗿

[@kathrinscharrer3923]

As long as those jokes are no longer about Germany, I'm good.

[@ac12484]

@@kathrinscharrer3923 😂😅

[@Kraut_the_Parrot]

I have avoided this topic myself. I have this weird feeling in conversations about it. Putin constantly plays around with maps redrawing the borders of European nations at will. And for this reason it feels somewhat wrong for me as a Westerner to do the same with Russian maps in response. I am also old enough to remember the horrific ethnic cleansings of the Yugoslav breakup, and believe a repeat of such in Russia would be the worst humanitarian disaster since the second world war.

[@VladVexler]

Hello you! I’m with you on these sentiments. Warmest wishes to your channel always.

[@rainingcatsdogs]

That’s very noble of you. Though “constantly plays” is not correct. There’s only one thing Putin has ever wanted - Crimea. If you look at the map, he needs the other annexed regions to secure Crimea. I’ve been saying this all along, the whole war is about Crimea.

[@paulgibbon5991]

@@rainingcatsdogs "Secure" against what, though? The possibility of Ukraine retaking Crimea wasn't even on the table until Putin chose to start a new war. This is Russian thinking, constantly reacting to imaginary threats.

[@rainingcatsdogs]

@@paulgibbon5991 Zelensky said in 2021, "We are taking back Crimea". It is on tape. It was on one of Aaron Mate's channels.

[@Mr2greys]

@@rainingcatsdogs thats typical human behaviour. They want what they can't have (he wanted Crimea and has mostly had it since 2014), so now he wants Ukraine. Once he has Ukraine what else is he going to want? Probably that little gap by Estonia, then Poland because dammit at that point NATO will be invoking Section 5 so why not.

[@piernikowyloodek]

The main channel videos never disappoint, thank you Vlad.

[@VladVexler]

Hee hee!

[@thedownwardmachine]

@@VladVexlerthank you for your hard work in putting together these tightly edited videos, I know so much more work per minute goes into them than your chats and other material, but as a viewer the richness of the content is extremely rewarding.

[@markkozlowski9019]

Ironically, the invasion of Ukraine has made a breakup of Russia even scarier: when Ukraine became independent, it gave its nuclear weapons to Russia based on a guarantee of sovereignty. What sane country that manages to break away from Russia would *ever* do something like that nowadays?

[@Kerorhavbc777]

It was russian nuclear weapons. Same like nuclear weapons of USA in Europe are american not european. They cannot use it.

[@Silver_Prussian]

The nuclear weapons werent owned by ukriane they refused to give back what was never theirs and coerced the russian into signing the budapest memorandum

[@ccvcharger]

@@Silver_Prussianand why does it matter who those nukes “rightfully” belonged to? When playing a game with people who believe that what’s yours is theirs, you need not concern yourself with trivialities like what “rightfully” belongs to them, because they will never repay that courtesy. Ukraine was right to hold onto “Russia’s” nukes until they got some sort of security agreement, however temporary it proved to be in the end. In hindsight, they should’ve just kept the nukes. After all, those nukes belonged to Russia just as much as the land belongs to Ukraine.

[@Silver_Prussian]

@@ccvcharger well arent we all trying to establish some common rules ? Some world order that everyone regardless of their status, money, fame or power must follow, isnt this what the virtuous west has been preaching about ? Seems like it was foolish of most people to belive that they would heed the morals they are purveying. Ukraine according to these international rules had no authority to ask for anything or hold onto anything. And if the leadership of russia at the time had been smarter and wiser, well the ukrianians would have gotten absolutely nothing. Infact I seem them lose crimea by the year 2000. Its really that they had luck when they assumed the position of extortionist.

[@Silver_Prussian]

@@ccvcharger keep the nukes and then what ? How will they use them ? They didnt have the launch codes, they didnt had the funds to sustain such arsenal. They would need an year at the least to reprogram a few of them. By that time the nation would be crippled by sanctions from pretty much everyone for being a threat to world peace and security, until even a possible military intervention is considered. Hell what kept the russians from saying f*ck it and taking whats their by force ? Will the west stop them ? No they will infact support them. The most worrying part was the atrocious corruption within the military and especially among high ranking officers which is what led to the conflict over those nukes. First simple rifles and pistols started missing from the armouries, then armoured vehicles, then aircraft. How long until a nuke or two were missing ? How many would die if those ended up in the wrong hands ? However lets imagine another scenario, the russians decide to be the bigger man and say ok take them we dont need them, how will the ukrianians extort them ? With only a few words their trump card turn to a worthless turd. Then the americans would knock on the door and ask for the nukes so they can dismantle and neutralise them, I doubt ukriane would have refused and if they did, well we are bacl to scenario one. So ukriane would have been left with no treaty to speak of and no garantees for holding onto terrutory that the russians might demand to be returned back.

[@carterpochynok4874]

The story of Putin stealing Robert Kraft's Superbowl ring is a hilarious example of Putin's "your stuff is actually just my stuff that you're holding onto for me until I want it" mentality.

[@way2dumb]

That's so bad. I hope he gets the ring back one day. Maybe after Putin goes to meet Stalin, Hitler, and Lenin in the depths of Hell, someone will return it.

[@joecurran2811]

It seems Putin appreciates that part of Western culture

[@ДокторЯдо]

@@way2dumb 1) You don't really have anything against Hitler, right? 2) Why would Putin meet Lenin and Stalin if he, as a right-wing conservative, dislikes both?

[@way2dumb]

@user-co3uc8vt7e go away Russian troll. If Hell exists, those four mass murderers will be permanent residents.

[@universeslap]

​@@ДокторЯдоDid you have stroke?

[@atypicalprogrammer5777]

The editing and presentation are sharp and on point, neither too short nor going into excessive details and repetition like other video essayists.

[@VladVexler]

Thank you!

[@Mr.Funnyman273]

@@VladVexler У тебя просто жопа горит что наша страна не развалилась за месяц как тебе обещала либеральная тусовочка, вот ты и сидишь за границей и похрюкиваешь, бесишься что у нас тут всё отлично и только лучше становится, только вот и перемоги которые ты выдумываешь существуют только у вас шизов в голове.

[@rbettsx]

(First of all, I want to say how much I learned from this, on second and third viewing.) Funnily enough, I was going to come at this from the other direction, from a film-making point of view. I felt continuously run over by the momentum of this piece.. a little like listening to a recorded Beethoven sonata, with all rests and intervals spliced out of the tape. Full-stops have their place. There has to be a beat during which one sentence, one idea, is absorbed, before the next is introduced. Jump-cuts are always disruptive, agitating. If you use them, you should mean them to be so. Camera moves and visual aids should always be expository, never merely decorative. This criticism is meant to be constructive. You'll have to forgive me if it is of deliberate stylistic decision. I can see how much work has been put into this composition. If anything, I'm suggesting there should have been less :) Your thesis is fascinating. I feel your edit obscures it.

[@piccalillipit9211]

I watched a 6 hours video on the Titanic the other day, I have to say, I did think it was a BIT long. Could have done with a bit of editing.

[@piccalillipit9211]

@@rbettsx - On the other hand I thought it was as close to perfect as it could be. And I'm autistic so these things you. mention tend to jar on me if overdone.

[@GabZonY]

"we shouldn't let optimism detach our political thinking from wisdom" beautiful quote, writing that down

[@dave0x]

Self determination is key as you say. We don’t want to fall into the trap of removing people’s agency as Putin always does.

[@VladVexler]

Absolutely.

[@speedyguydima]

Same with Crimea, glad they used self-determiniation to leave Ukraine.

[@andriyandriychuk]

Crimea was occupied by Russia. Has nothing to do with self determination.​@@speedyguydima

[@p_serdiuk]

@speedyguydima It's a sad sight to see, someone who even when presented with the clear and unambiguous message that replacing self-determination with military force is wrong, still argues that an event where military force masqueraded as self-determination was positive.

[@porterhouse937]

@@VladVexlercorrect, Donbas has the right to self determination, and it chose to leave Ukraine. Democratic, European, bold, brave.

[@ohhhSmooth]

This covers a blind spot I knew I had for many years now. Thank you very much, you are doing really important work and you have a beautiful soul.

[@jahazbrooga309]

I agree. Vlad educates me for sure. Thank you.

[@blueclue57]

That was my thought, much more succinctly said.

[@DarkestAlice]

Thank you, for putting my feeling into proper wording! I agree, especially with Vlad's beautiful soul. Well put. 🇺🇦 Заради життя кожного українця! 🇺🇦

[@VladVexler]

Thank you so much!

[@alexanderthef8]

Yes this is eye opening, Russia in the west is always talked about as one big entity, basically just Moscow. This is kind of perspective changing info

[@larsrons7937]

Vlad, thank you for this video. I've watched it ½ year ago. Now, the second time, it was really eye opening, provoked new thoughts.

[@TristanJCumpole]

I am happy to have this entire conversation again in a post-Putin world. What happens beyond there will be what it will be. One step at a time I think.

[@criscruzparra2243]

Thank you Vlad! Long awaited and no disappointing, by the contrary!

[@VladVexler]

Thank you!

[@HaraldEngels]

That was an excellent analysis. Worth every minute watching it.

[@VladVexler]

Thank you!

[@LaimisMatas]

I just got a feeling that I need to check KZbin for Vlad.. and my gut don't disappoint me. Love from Lithuania, Vlad. 👋

[@VladVexler]

Love back from East London!

[@123sabong]

@@VladVexler Conversation. 🇷🇺VLADIMIR PUTIN: "Listen, you have said that the world is breaking into two hemispheres. A human brain is divided into two hemispheres: one is responsible for one type of activities, the other one is more about creativity and so on. But it is still one and the same head................what a creative way for a dictator to manipulatively express his want for world domination..... what's your take on this??????

[@fraudebs8786]

Ahhh Vlad.. The second movement. Breaks my heart over and over ❤💔 Also, great stream! 😍

[@Lou.B]

BRILLIANT characterization and plausible forecasting! Well done!

[@DerekLarp]

Very good video. IMO worth the long wait. I feel very grateful for the work you do on KZbin 🙂 Much love from Germany

[@VladVexler]

Much love back - I'm grateful to have you! At the moment the imbalance between frequent posts on the Chat channel and rare posts here is a bit too much, but it's a product of my health limitations.

[@pinkpanther8427]

​@@VladVexler dont worry about it. Quality often doesnt mean quantity. To constantly achieve both there will be a toll on health condition earlier or later.

[@pierresaelen3097]

​@@VladVexlerDon't bother too much about KZbin's feedback. It's designed to function as a treadmill that never pauses. I see vloggers who are healthy like 'Reporting from Ukraine,' Konstantin from 'Inside Russia,' and Lei from 'Lei's Real Talk' struggle with a burnout, or too many colds ans sore throats. They alll learned to take a distance from YT's feedback by either lowering their output schedule or by taking irregular breaks. The output you generate in your condition, is already tremendous, especially given the level of subtle nuances you aim to offer us. When a brain quickly gets tired, that's no small feat. Beware of overdoing yourself, because in your condition this can push you in a downwards spiral once again. Your body has found a kind of shaky balance that permits you to function somehow. Don't put that balance in jeopardy. It's not your weekly, monthly, quarterly or annual output that matters. It's your total output that matters given the unique niche you've created for yourself. Most people with CFS/ME are people who always gave their very best, relentlessly so. So, don't just beware of KZbin's automated feedback. Instead do know that a loving community can be very patient and will always put your health first.

[@nerzhul2455]

AdoIf would be proud. But dissapointed at same time...

[@jan.remennik]

Thank you for this analysis, Vlad! As far as i'm concerned, you deserve a michelin star in the food for thought category.

[@innelator6941]

Idk what you saw, but he definitely deserves Darwin award for being so stupid propagandist

[@jan.remennik]

⁠@@innelator6941 Im afraid we will be participating in very different award ceremonies then. His takes seem very level headed to me and add great value to the conversation. What makes you think it’s propaganda?

[@bartklein4362]

Hahaha 🤣

[@andrasferencz7948]

Man, you've quoted so many times the 2nd movement of Rach 2 in this video, that I had to stop halfway through, and listen to the whole concerto.

[@spudbono5747]

🎶 allll byyy myselffff... 🎶

[@andrasferencz7948]

@@spudbono5747 yepp, that one 😊

[@dulata3583]

Kazakhs composed only 1/3 of Kazakhstan's population during USSR's breakup, yet they launched one of USSR's first national protests in 1986. I think the argument about ethnic composition is overemphasized, it's mainly about political will.

[@BigHenFor]

That's ignoring that ethnicity is only one dimensions in ones identity. Of itself, it is only a glue, if there is something to join together. A proto-nationalism based on ethnicity is a cherry but not the cake. Seccession is the last option to be chosen, because there has to be a political establishment within any region wishing to secede that can offer governance and stability. Without them and the institutions, secession isn't an option. That's why they want autonomy, but don't even have that.

[@catch_2022]

Valid point, however they've also had their own system of governance, more independent than that of the Russian regions

[@ZhovtoBlakytniy]

How many of these people identify as "ethnic Russian" who are not, too, because it was the preferred political answer that doesn't raise suspicion?

[@forrestorange]

So you think an exception disproves the rule?

[@lastsong7159]

​@@forrestorange tell me what rule in politics doesn't get broken.

[@katleigh4513]

A very empathetic and well articulated position! Thanks for sharing

[@VladVexler]

Thank you for seeing!

[@jerrellholder8382]

​@@VladVexler what's the big obsession with russia breaking up?? Why not the United Kingdom breaking up or the usa breaking up....u mention russia is a settler colonialism hmm but which country did u leave russia for???😂😂

[@thomasflenegan-wm9ef]

@@jerrellholder8382The answer is simple: 1) There is no obsession with splitting up the Russian Federation. 2) It is important to stop Russian wars of aggression. 3) Permanent warfare is currently vital for the survival of the Russian regime. 4) Unsuccessful warfare is highly likely to lead to the collapse of Putin's government. 5) The collapse of Putin's autocracy can lead to the collapse of the Russian Federation. 6) It makes sense for the supporters of Ukraine to start thinking today about how to react politically to such a collapse of the Russian Federation. 7) From a strategic point of view, possible reactions are thought backwards from possible future target states. 8) It therefore makes sense to analyse the possible consequences of a secession of the Russian Federation. Btw, in 2024 UK + U.S. are not leading wars of aggression against their neighbors

[@BillyMcFarland-v7n]

I could listen to you talk all day dude, refreshingly open and real analysis from someone who is in a position to know what they are talking about. Bravo👏

[@henriikkak2091]

As a Finn, I know something about the state of the so-called Finno-Ugric republics and I must say that I don't see any of them becoming independent in our lifetime. Not as ethnic nation states. Rather, I see some of those groups going extinct in this century as well. Russians don't care. They've told me that it's a natural process. Which, coming from someone from, say, Karelia is outrageous. The region is 5-10% Karelian. This was not the case before Stalin. I am old enough to remember the latest collapse of the Russian Empire, though -- the collapse of the USSR -- and I can see that happening again in some shape or form. It just doesn't mean that independent republics in our linguistic and cultural sphere emerge in its place.

[@tylerprudhomme]

don't many of the finno-ugric peoples have higher birth rates than the russian average? which is intself trending down obviously

[@lucianboar3489]

​@@darenzywell, it does, if you're lecturing someone with a worse record :)

[@rosschops9509]

@@darenzyupset? Lol

[@terjeoseberg990]

@@darenzy, Maybe they should send all the ethnic Russians back to Moscow before try break away. Then Moscow can survive without stealing the natural resources of others.

[@darenzy]

@@lucianboar3489 I never said where I'm from. But nice try. By "worse record" I can assume that you meant I'm from the US?

[@Habacook1]

Best one yet Vlad!

[@VladVexler]

Thank you!

[@gyorgyangelkottbocz9766]

this was the best, most tought through, well supported commentary on the subject I've heared recently. well done Vlad! I think our political leaders should pay attention to what you've just said!

[@YujiroHanmaaaa]

Hey Vlad, i remember in one video you made a last year or two years ago, where you predicted that many "right wings" or even conservatives in USA will starting to show sympathy to Vladimir Putin, can you do an extra video about that topic. After Tucker Carlson Interview with Putin it's starting to look right on your prediction

[@njswampfox474]

As a Constitutional Conservative and Reagan Republican, the MAGA crop of Republicans are a disgrace to the memory and values of the Founders.

[@a5cent]

This prediction came true long ago. Tucker's interview represents the very tail end of this transformation. Not the beginning. The Republican party has fractured into two groups: 1) Traditional Republicans Think Ronald Reagan 2) MAGA cultists Right wing populists, in many ways similar to 1930s Germany. The latter feels Putin is their man. Partly because he openly supports Trump, partly because he shares their culturally conservative language (although US evangelicals have not yet caught on that he doesn't mean the same things).

[@a5cent]

This prediction came true long ago. Tucker's interview represents the very tail end of this transformation. Not the beginning. The Republican party has fractured into two groups: 1) Traditional Republicans Think Ronald Reagan 2) MAGA cultists Right wing populists. Similar to 1930s Germany. The latter feels Putin is their man. Partly because he openly supports Trump, partly because he shares the culturally conservative language favored by Evangelicals.

[@a5cent]

This prediction came true long ago. Tucker's interview represents the very tail end of this transformation. Not the beginning. The Republican party has fractured into two groups: 1) Traditional Republicans Think Ronald Reagan 2) MAGA cultists Right wing populists. The latter feels Putin is their man. Partly because he openly supports Trump, partly because he shares the culturally conservative language favored by Evangelicals.

[@a5cent]

This prediction came true long ago. Tucker's interview represents the very tail end of this transformation. Not the beginning. The Republican party has fractured into two groups: 1) Traditional Republicans Think Ronald Reagan 2) Right wing populists Similar to 1930s Germany. The latter feels Putin is their man. Partly because he openly supports Trump, partly because he shares the culturally conservative language favored by Evangelicals.

[@b1rds_arent_real]

You couldn't have timed this better. I'm excited to watch!

[@rossm2868]

If someone says we need to de colonise russia but don't say the same for native Americans r hypocrit s

[@user-zd5dp4ls7m]

They also don't want to decolonize Africa.

[@vin.handle]

Andrei Amilrik wrote a book in 1970 titled "Will the USSR Survive Until 1984?". The book was prescient in many ways.

[@ak5659]

Another book added to my list, lol. Thank you. It should make for interesting reading in comparison to my college professors in the early eighties. They predicted the dissolution of the USSR and sequele pretty accurately. Their only major error was that they figured everything would start ~2010.

[@R3TR0221]

Technically the system still lives on in russia. However long russia has left as a state is unknown though.

[@Titanioid]

@@ak5659 Gorbachev made one which may have saved Russia’s buns today. Perestroika (aka democratic Russia)

[@quedtion_marks_kirby_modding]

I always find it funny how many russians often express recentment towards the muslim population of their own country, yet they leaving Russia is one of their biggest fears.

[@rajlowkie6616]

Putin is setting up deep friendship FRIENDSHIP, between African and the Middle East .

[@mikeriley3556]

Same with Turkey and the Kurds

[@ffff7164]

America and black people

[@Delfigamer1]

The answer is simple: they want their territory without their culture.

[@forecaster182]

@@ffff7164 What? I don't think black Americans declaring independence is a topic anyone is entertaining and certainly not the black community themselves. What are you talking about?

[@ajeetgrover4422]

Fantastic analysis. Love your content Vlad and appreciate your efforts to keep the content going and continually providing a unique and analytic approach to interpreting Russian Politics and the War. This an example of the power of youtube to provide a forum for independent voices

[@sned_music]

25mins of one of my favourite thinkers... Let's go 🙂

[@VladVexler]

Oh thank you!

[@shesathome]

Your favourite dreamer I must admit! Dreaming dreams of his own making.

[@lucianoosorio5942]

“How many dictators does it take, to turn an empire into a Union of ruinous states? It’s a disgrace what you did to your own people! You’re a superpower but who paid the price, with the endless destruction of Russian lives!” Rasputin

[@rickybiggy1]

Epic rap battles of history

[@radar536]

This very sentences you used can be used to describe the US. The only difference is the "package".

[@Earthball_Productions]

​@@radar536Not very comparable

[@casper6014]

@@radar536the US didnt starve MlLLlONS just because its leader was paranoid. The CIA didnt kiII thousands of generals and leaders because its leader was paranoid. You can never compare the USSR to the USA

[@sumiland6445]

@@radar536 there's not very many natives peoples left in the United States as compared to the countries that make up 3/4 of eastern Russia.

[@CourtAboveTheCut]

Absolutely brilliant content, finally someone saying things from a middle ground rather than all of the western or Russian bias. Have subbed

[@effingsix3825]

When it comes to war, we’re all stuck in a doom-loop of reflexivity.

[@elcerrado]

Russia has been waging a criminal war of extermination in Ukraine for two years. And you don't hear anything from the Russian population. Anyone who does not act against the Putin regime in Russia is complicit in the worst crimes and genocide.

[@DJWESG1]

According to Beck, Giddens and Lash, we've been there for a while.

[@effingsix3825]

Yes, thank-you. Bookmarked! Life has to be lived in defence of the persona, no mater how contrived it is.

[@murphy7801]

Eh, I mean yes no. The 1990s was an interesting time and not that long ago. I think it shows that it's possible. I think the stage is ATM that wealth disparity is getting high so populations using the internet still a new tech is causing lots of unfortunate situations. I feel once nuclear fusion is invented this will help calm the world.

[@Matu007]

As an Estonian, thank you for this video

[@VladVexler]

My pleasure!

[@1celloheaven]

Brilliant insight and overview Vlad. I'm somewhat in awe of your big brain !

[@aliwalil4160]

hahaha fake country

[@cassandra2249]

That was the most sensible conversation I have ever listened to about the possible future of Russia and also the most optimistic for it's people, who deserve security and happiness like every one else.

[@blueclue57]

Wow.. another wonderful and intelligent sorting out of this topic. I spent 15 years working within Russia, and I cannot say what the people there desire. I certainly have my strong opinions and wishes for the future, but I understand Vlad and his categorisation of these exercises as “fashionable politization.” Thank you for checking me on that. You are so correct that the people of the communities must themselves decide.. and not just Moscow alone.

[@JSK010]

My in-laws are Russian. What the people desire is I think "to not be noticed, to go under the radar, to not stick their neck out lest it be chopped off"

[@Hadescat]

@@JSK010accurate. As long as the "powers that be" do not notice them, they can survive. They also don't think they have the power to change anything

[@neilpountney9414]

The Russian people will never be given the opportunity to decide for themselves. The Country does not and will never run that way under its current structure. Short of a revolution and overthrowing of the regime it will never change.

[@rustr01]

You are really besotted with propaganda. «Russians are afraid», «Russians want to survive under evil regime» - are not very objective words, huh? It is especially funny when Westerners (and Russian traitors) with joyful faces show some maps with possible fragments of Russia.

[@apples1290]

Between the population statistics of the ethnic republics and your assertion that breakup would be a disaster I was suddenly reminded of the Partition of India and how unbelievably bad it was.

[@lexi1031]

Yeah the partition of the British raj was a disaster. That is still affecting the world.

[@yariklyashenko5400]

90‘s in Russia were terrible after USSR collapse. Thousands of people died from different reasons, others will never forget how tough this time was.

[@THEONLYRIAAN]

I hope all of these new nations will become official and I would proudly help support them with my taxes if the USA helps give them independence and makes them USA and nato allies

[@declanhealy8162]

Great video. Much appreciated as always

[@VladVexler]

Thank you!

[@kcgeil]

Smashing video mate. Great encompassing of a sprawling situation.

[@valeriebluteau3612]

your Russian/British accent is probably the absolute best accent I've heard in my life

[@VladVexler]

That is very lovely of you!

[@trleith]

That was worth the wait.

[@VladVexler]

Thank you!!

[@james82184]

The long-awaited long-form video! Thank you Vlad!

[@SigmundJaehn]

This is so good, thank you for this. It’s fascinating.

[@-Gramps]

Hey, Vlad! I hope you’re doing well. I enjoy your analysis, opinion, & dissertation.

[@andreidmny]

I'm glad that you've finally managed to release this! Thank you, Vlad.

[@timverrecchia1654]

very insightful and well put together, I always learn a lot from your content. thanks for your hard work!

[@VladVexler]

Thank you!

[@sneep66]

I really value this content and your opinion. Being from Russia you talk about Russia. You moved to Israel before settling in London. I'd really like to hear your opinion/commentary on Israel and Anti-zionism. Also the propaganda and protests. Thanks man!

[@bruceferry6229]

Vlad’s Back on the Main Channel !! Awesome!

[@VladVexler]

🌻

[@a5cent]

Fantastic. Very interesting. Thank you Vlad!

[@caster863]

Russia: *balkanizes* China: Hippity hoppity, Siberia is my property!

[@muslimayupov]

china is way scarier than russia

[@salvatorenostrade3331]

China would really only want Vladistokov and Outer Manchuria realistically. The rest they'd probably use as proxies at best. Id say its more likely for Mongolia to push for a unification with Buryatia or any other Mongol ethnic territories. Japan would probably attempt to seize Sakhalin by that logic too.

[@Ts_n_Cs]

First to post! Vlad, I've been anxious to watch this since you announced it!

[@chrismeese3666]

Thank you for taking time to share your knowledge.

[@VladVexler]

Thank you for being here!

[@TenaciousDmitchell]

Great job Vlad. I like the fact that you injected videos here and there.

[@marty5627]

Hey Vlad, I’m so used to watching the videos on the Chat channel, I sometimes forget that the production values of the main channel are intentionally much higher. Very well done video!

[@VladVexler]

Thank you!!

[@kevley26]

Great video, as always I am grateful for your work :)

[@VladVexler]

Grateful to have you.

[@howardatherton3889]

Thanks very much for posting.

[@_amalfitano]

Just in time for my mid-afternoon sit! Good to see after a long few days.

[@republicofhandball8815]

It's unlikely for Russia to break up, because most of its citizens are packed in some large cities west to Urals, like Moscow, St Petersburg, Voronetz, Rostov on Donu, Volgograd etc ...

[@lucianboar3489]

Well, Novosibirsk is the third largest. Break up doesn't mean that a large part won't continue to be an offical country called Russia, that contains Moscow , Sankt Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara etc. But I give it almost zero chance, most things remaining equal around the world. Just not for the reason that many large cities are in Europe.

[@andriyandriychuk]

It is very likely for Russia to collapse.

[@DarmoeD88]

Россия никогда не распадётся. Сам народ этого не позволит. А то что порой выступает всякая оппозиция, где хотели бы отделиться, это оооочень маленький процент. Их очень мало, но их больше всех слышно.

[@andriyandriychuk]

@@DarmoeD88 брехня, она распадается с 1917, она уже потеряла Балтику, Финляндию, Польшу, теперь она теряет Украину, дальше она потеряет страны Северного Кавказа, Татарстан, Башкортостан, Тыву, Бурятию, Якутию.

[@andriyandriychuk]

Беларусь тоже.

[@gabemoothart7943]

Thanks!

[@JuanJoseSoto-un9nd]

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis as always Mr. Vexler. It's always a treat when you release a new video on the main channel

[@philpaine3068]

So far, Canada has survived as a country by rejecting an ethnic definition of the state and taking the concept of federation seriously, i.e. the provinces preserve most powers of governance, and cultural conformity is neither imposed nor sought. On one occasion, our country came close to breaking up, because of old grudges combined with romantic nationalism professed by a regional elite. In reality, the bulk of people did not really feel the grudges as much as the intellectuals imagined. People moderated their views, made concessions, and reduced tensions because most people, no matter how diverse in their customs, believed that chaos and strife should be avoided and fairness was a value worth pursuing. Canadians are perfectly content with many of Quebec's population thinking of themselves as Quebecois first and Canadians second, while many others think of themselves as Canadians first and Quebecois second. The people of Quebec manage their own affairs, just as the people of every other province manage theirs. These split loyalties can be found in the other provinces as well. The Province of New Brunswick maintains a bilingual society without internal stress, where its francophone citizens are quite proud of not being the same as the francophones in Quebec, and celebrate their own history, dialect, and traditions. Similarly, Newfoundlanders see no difficulty in maintaining their unique culture, traditions and strikingly different dialect of English while being part of Canada since 1949. Far from resenting these differences, most Canadians are delighted by the uniqueness of Newfoundlanders, and flattered that they have chosen to be with us. . . . This pattern of embracing differences goes back to the founding Confederation in 1867, and intellectually much earlier to the ideas (and intimate friendship) of Robert Baldwin and Louis-Hippolyte La Fontaine. For that matter, it can be traced to the alliance of First Nations, French Canadians, English Canadians, and European settlers to defend against an American invasion. And further back it has its roots in the democratic councils and complex multi-ethnic political institutions created by First Nations. . . . I have friends in our Territory of Nunavut who only a couple of weeks ago celebrated the devolution of many federal government powers to the Territorial government, and the transfer of title to vast areas of land and resources to the people of Nunavut, who are overwhelmingly Inuit. I was even pleasantly surprised by our Prime Minister pronouncing Inuktitut words close enough to correctly. This met little opposition because most Canadians think it's fair, and fairness usually trumps other things in public discourse. Most Canadians in recent generations have grown up believing that old injustices should be acknowledged, apologized for, and corrected. And most Canadians want everyone to be treated fairly. Canada has plenty of problems and potential internal divisions, plenty of failures of policy, plenty of mistakes to embarrass ourselves. But so far, for 157 years, we've managed to make things work more or less, and can look at a history with very little violence. . . . Is it possible for these ideas to establish themselves in a future generation of Russians and the diverse ethnic minorities? No matter how repressive the regime in Moscow becomes, it is becoming increasingly difficult for rulers to keep their citizens cut off from the outside world. History has been dominated by people and parties motivated by a yearning for dominance, a yearning for stolen riches, a yearning for violence, or a yearning for orthodox conformity. But there is another yearning --- the yearning for fairness --- that can motivate people if they understand it.

[@sixgunsymphony7408]

Jacques Parizeau pointed out that Canada brought third world immigrants into Quebec so that the French speakers would not have a large enough voting majority to get secession from Canada.

[@westho7314]

Canada seems like a broken colony French/east- English- west. Funny people/ many men seem stubborn,arrogant & bigoted racists much like Australian manly men act

[@baldersn4474]

Your crmininal gangs, immigrants , and left wing Communists are a massive problem in Canade..

[@TheJustinJ]

The primary thing all Canadians seem to unite against, is industry and enterprise. If it involved natural resources, even renewable ones, might as well be outlawed.

[@brotherhoodofsteeld.c.chap1917]

There is another side to this though; the USA, even more decentralized than Canada and has even less secessionist sentiment than Russia and Canada despite its 50 member-states being much more sovereign than the respective oblasts and provinces. This has largely come with the cost of extremely slow decision-making and oftentimes contradictory policies, though when these highly autonomous states are united by a common goal they are near unstoppable by any enemy. Thus the extreme federalism of the USA is either a great advantage or disadvantage depending on how willing the states are to work together. The USA depends largely on social cohesion in a way unitary states largely don’t have to. In eras where the USA doesn’t have that cohesion, you get Gavin Newsome meeting with China and Greg Abbot meeting with Taiwan; Overseas great powers used as proxies in a cold civil war between California and Texas.

[@DenisMaksymowicz]

Vlad, there is too much to unpack here as a simple lesson.

[@paulsabucchi]

Thank you for all your effort making this video

[@VladVexler]

Thank you Paul!

[@jakefaulkner8381]

Putin: The borders of Europe will be re-drawn! Russia: Yes Putin: Wait

[@dorotazapolnik234]

Russia’s empire died with the collapse of the Soviet Union . Presently Russia is an oligarchy fighting for the next breath of air. Huge miscalculation going into open war with Ukraine is thinning oxygen in that air even faster . Russia is a failed state on the verge on economical , democratic ….collapse .

[@dorotazapolnik234]

Correction … demographic

[@elduquecaradura1468]

@@dorotazapolnik234 yes and no, I mean, democratic too: very rarely the collapse of a nation leads to the birth of many smaller states they start in democracies. Usually a strong hand makes a dictature trying to hold the power either for their own sake or trying to reinstate somw order, either way leading to a regular dictatorship, it can on the long run finish in a democracy like South Korea and Taiwan, or stay as a dictature by political party or dynastical like North Korea or PRC But yeah, if the Russian Federation collapses (and it doesn't have the army to force the secesionists nations to stay and even less as the war with Ukraine elongates further) definitely they will be born a lot of new nations most surely under dictatures

[@dorotazapolnik234]

@@elduquecaradura1468 The collapse of Russia is unavoidable for numerous reasons . Putin is cannibalizing his own nation pretty efficiently and after western corporations left Russia taking the “knowing how to “ with them and most young , well educated , tech savvy Russian escaped the country Russia is running on fumes of previous glory . What’s going to stay in place is small , Slavic Russian nation memorizing their past and portraying themself as victims of circumstances in a well known to the world , well established for generations Russian way . Central Asian ex Soviet republics like Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan , Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan are all independent state now and even it’s impossible to talk about democracy in Muslim run state they all not only surviving but are thriving in their own way . Georgia is still partially occupied by Russia , but mostly independent and democratic state . Ukraine was on the way to shake Russian influence , corruption and control stoped by Putin’s imperialistic appetites . So, nobody can predict what the total collapse of present Russia will bring locally and globally , but is happening , it’s unstoppable and is spreading up

[@АлександрОрлов-п9ч]

People are talking about imminent collapse of Russia since the first month of the war... I don't see any sings of this yet

[@future62]

Great work as always Vlad. A case study in the phrase "be careful what you wish for". Also a bit presumptuous of us westerners to demand democracy from Russia when we barely do enough to protect our own.

[@CLaw-tb5gg]

I feel the shadow of Francis Fukuyama hangs heavily over any discussion of this.

[@VladVexler]

The shadow of Frank from his 1989-1992 period. He has evolved a lot since then!

[@ekesandras1481]

@@VladVexler He had his 15 min of fame. His book "End of History" didn't only carry his personal view but the view of a whole generation in the 1990ies. That's why this book is so iconic. Whatever he is writing now is of less importance, because it was never about him but about this thought, that he was just lucky to prominently write down first.

[@Pan_Z]

Fukuyama's viewpoints always seem to mirror whatever popular sentiment is. Nowadays he talks about the need for social democracy, restraints on capitalism, why forfeiting more power to the government is a good thing, ect...

[@firmonkey8782]

Прибежали в избу дети, Второпях зовут отца: "Обманул нас Фукуяма, Нет истории конца!"

[@JoJo-ez3pv]

Great example of unbiased critical thought.

[@jop4833]

Great as always

[@lewisjohnson8226]

2:18. "11 time zones over 17 square kilometres". Yeesh, that sounds like a logistical nightmare. Youd need to adjust your watch when going for a walk down the street! (I think you might have missed the million part there 😅)

[@jan.remennik]

Actually you wouldn’t. It would just be a very very slim piece of land about 2 m thin but still 10 thousand kilometers long. So, you wouldn’t have to adjust your clock, you’d just need to make sure you don’t trip and accidentally cross an international border.

[@VladVexler]

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!

[@Ne_Ne_Vova_UA]

Really interesting to see a close political analysis

[@southend26]

This is so so good.

[@VladVexler]

Thanks so so much!!!

[@raedok3041]

Thanks as always for your insight Vlad!

[@WackadoodleMalarkey]

Aww Highland cows are adorable ❤

[@Charl-Viljoen]

Brilliant and worth the wait. Many thanks Vlad

[@Cuzthatwouldbeweird]

What a great video!

[@VladVexler]

Thank you so much.

[@GloriaHoulihan-z4n]

Apparently 60 Buryats to one Muscovite die in this war.The ethnic minorities are being skillfully reduced.

[@innelator6941]

What’s your source? Oh, wait, you just made it up!

[@p_serdiuk]

@innelator6941 Ah, of course, it's sooooo hard to track when people die in the Internet age. An almost impossible task.

[@innelator6941]

@@p_serdiuk as easy as spread propaganda misinformation I have seen so many people “die” and magically appearing again alive

[@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u]

Haha. This is just like the law; if a comment contains the word Muscovite, the comment is most likely simply inadequate.

[@romanromanchuk7718]

Go back to the front ukropchik

[@2eyeson2b]

Vlad, you always cut to the chase. Clear and logical presentation. History has many examples of imposed boundaries not working out well. Agree with the comment that all world leaders could learn from your observations. Thank you.

[@dougk2932]

Russia is more united with a sense of national identity than most people know.

[@P1000H]

For many years the elites have been trying to take possession of Russian resources. Fortunately, they haven't succeeded.

[@comment6864]

Exactly. If you just look at the US from a bird's eye view, and then same at Russia, it's pretty clear even to a child that Russia has a much stronger identity and unity right now than the US, actually BY FAR. And it's got a lot more history and national experience, so to speak. Contrary to the hype, the US is actually a very young experiment - not even 300 years, which is nothing in the greater context of history, and most of that barely out of the 'wild west' phase, and only now, the last couple of decades or so really coming into its really first greatest challenges to its unity. So far lately the trajectory is NOT looking great, on many levels. Practically irreversible things have happened and the experiment might be unwinding even now. Empires have stood for a thousand years and fell. 200 years is nothing to write home about. Ironically the challenges now run even deeper than at the time of the civil war, just different in nature, but more fatal in the long term. Russia and the 'collective west' are in many ways on opposite trajectories of wellbeing, and it's looking better for Russia. It's lucky for the west that Russia is NOT aggressive.

[@janethompson5153]

You are on fire 🔥 excellent reporting. Really appreciate the insight and it was engaging with full explanation

[@VladVexler]

I'm so glad.

[@Sebastian-xb6wn]

One of the best and thoughtfullest video I've ever seen

[@mrowlbert]

Much to think upon here, Vlad! Thank you for doing the heavy lifting and allowing us to see the contours of this debate and the implications of a break up of the Russian state.

[@itwasntme9687]

Thank you so much for another excellent video - and for holding my hand again 🤩.

[@alexbayer2365]

Holding hand for separatists republic? Are u insane?

[@VladVexler]

My privilege.

[@itwasntme9687]

@@VladVexler You have done remarkable work over (at least) the last 2 years with all the brillant insights in your videos, and not only that, you have been extraordinary respectful and tolerant even to intolerant comments (and that's not even taking your health issues into account). I love learning from your expertise with russia, but I love it even more to learn (and hopefully emulate) how you deal with opposing opinions. You really earned the privilege to hold my hand. Lots of love from Germany. 🌻

[@jordansmith4040]

Our desire to break up Russia seems to me like shortsightedness and wishful thinking. The fall of Imperial Russia did not break most of it it up. The fall of the Soviet Union did not break most of it up.

[@amichaelthomas83]

Excellent video, very well balanced consideration.

[@petergeddes6652]

It always strikes me as hilariously (or perhaps tragically) naive when any says something approaching "it can't be any worse than this, surely?", especially when it comes to a country like Russia. Keep up the good work, this is a very helpful video

[@eastbaystreet1242]

Russians have an amazing capacity for suffering. I spent a decade working there, so I made close friends. They have been conditioned to expect these awful events. Things will get much worse there before they get better (decades from now). It will be horrific, the human suffering. All for this one little putz.

[@colinbodnaryk7518]

Always remember, it's never so bad it can't get worse!

[@aperson806]

Dense with information, and thoroughly illuminating, as always.

[@VladVexler]

Thank you son much!

[@seanlander9321]

The regions that didn’t escape when the Soviet Union failed aren’t likely to leave now, they obviously have a dependency on Russia or just don’t have the confidence to express their identity.

[@handofsutekh]

British Empire didn't fall apart right away, happened in phases over 70 years. Could be the same here

[@GuyAnderson-b8i]

Fantastic video

[@psicologiajoseh]

There were a lot of interesting data and history in this video, but the more abundant thing in it was wisdom. Thanks for creating this content!

[@GlowingRoseDoesGeo]

Small error: Tartarstan also tried to seperate, but Tartarstan doesn't have good geography basically got them invaded in two days in 1994

[@ayron419]

Awesome video, definitely subscribing.