The rise and decline of Australian Rugby Union - EXPLAINED (w/ GAINLINE Analytics)

A short summary analysis of how Australian rugby union and the national team known as The Wallabies rose to success in the 1980s and then dropped in international standing by the 2000s.
For more information on Cohesion Analytics go to GAINLINE Analytics website: www.gainline.biz/
For more on cohesion, listen to our Two Part podcast episode where we dig deeper with former Wallaby Ben Darwin:
PART 1: www.buzzsprout.com/1544122/10...
PART 2: www.buzzsprout.com/1544122/10...
For more, check out the following links:
Our Website: / golddiggerrugby
Our Podcast: www.buzzsprout.com/1544122
Written, directed and narrated by Matt Durrant
Research and data from GAINLINE Analytics
Design by Lara Juriansz
Motion Graphics by CUB ANIMATION STUDIO, UK
Music by Ryan Papahatzis & Brad Vander Lugt

[@emulevu]

This reminds me of high school rugby, playing along side your mates knowing exactly how they play, having good chemistry. In Fiji, most boarding schools dominate cause of the same players playing along side year after year.

[@netaroberts8996]

@J G as much as that is good for soccer it’s terrible for Australia. We’ll never have a comp that pays as much Europe, any good players will be poached for overseas clubs.

[@franko2053]

This is why in SA high school rugby is so good probably the best school boy rugby in the world, but it doesn't translate to our franchise teams. Because franchise's recruit players based on potential not on peaking at 18 years old. By the time the franchise teams have rebuilt and integrated young and new talent, some of the best/starters go overseas.Breaking team cohesion, the Lions for example broke that trend when their team stayed together for more than 3 years, they ended up loosing finalist in Super Rugby the consecutive years 2016, 2017 and 2018. This is still a big problem in SA but luckily it is starting to change because of good management from Rassie, and other factors such as beter quality nothern hemisphere players and from countries like Georgia being also recruited. As well as a cost cap being introduced meaning teams up north can't buy trophies anymore they actually have to focus on management and coaching. Which ultimately means higher quality players stays in SA. Although the Major League in the US and the Japan have been taking a good junk of SA juniors, the beter salaries are still in traditional rugby nations so they will return with exp.

[@ryanator109]

I'm a New Zealand rugby fan and found this really interesting, Australia losing it's competitiveness has really had an impact on our National Team and since we don't have South Africa in the Super Rugby either now, the only competition we have is mainly against our own clubs.

[@justbecause3187]

Haha typical Kiwi, always looking for ways to shift the blame for their problems onto Australia.

[@hardushelm6268]

As a South african, I agree

[@justbecause3187]

​@@facepalm7345 I think you might have replied to the wrong person, my comment was more of a tease directed at the New Zealanders.

[@anexpertonthematter1468]

cope

[@028TuvaluanHero]

World rugby just created a new International system.

[@LeeWayPanda]

Excellent analysis. I would add that the expansion of the Australian Super Rugby teams also came with little to no expansion to Rugby Union at a grass roots level so not only was the talent getting distributed between the Super Rugby teams, there wasn't enough talent coming through the youth ranks as well.

[@danmac1913]

Soccer will never be number one in NZ or Australia. Rugby is a great game that is far more exciting to watch than soccer will ever be. You virtually never see nil all draws in rugby or rugby league.

[@glennkeppel9836]

@J G Flog. This is about RU. McDonalds is super popular too.

[@stalinmao14]

@JG-bw6lu funny coz i dont remeber asking

[@shezadm6300]

I think it mostly due to lack of talented players in Australian rugby that is the reason for the decline… lot of sportsmen who could have become great Australian rugby players have played or play rugby league and other sports… by the way, the videos on the playlist on my channel might interest some people!

[@laohu5511]

That's maybe true in the northern states but the playing pool in the southern states has increased so has the percentage of players coming through to Super Rugby and the Wallabies. The level of the other international teams is rising the likes of Ireland and Argentina for example. The major problem is it's going to take another generation for the Rebels and Force to have mainly home grown squads on the back of their growing Polynesian communities. There are three Victorians in the RWC23 squad 4 if you include Valentini.

[@bigheadindustry1105]

Great analysis, and admire the presentation. I like statistics being layered out on a page, explaining different viewpoints. Subscribed

[@ragingboarproductions4634]

Thanks for that. Big props to our design team.

[@AgentMoray]

I also subscribed just based on this one video. It's amazing.

[@trancemadmaz]

​@@ragingboarproductions4634Do you do data analytics as a full time job? That was very impressive

[@waffle_burger8499]

This analysis is very accurate and well put together. As an All Blacks fan, it still frustrates me to see how the game has been mis-handled and so badly managed in Australia since 2004-2005. A golden opportunity was missed to really cement Australia as a global rugby powerhouse, and now I'm concerned the sport has almost faded in obscurity. For New Zealand and global rugby fans, a strong Wallabies team is necessary to keep the sport alive in the southern hemisphere.

[@mikespearwood3914]

It's always been an obscure sport in Australia. Australia shouldn't really have had the success they had at international level, but were lucky with a couple of golden generations.

[@thegoldensnitch6312]

Best years of Rugby in Australia were in the 90’s during the war between the ARL and Super League. Once the NRL found its feet they’d strangle Rugby from grass roots

[@minishaw280]

I’ve only ever watched the rugby World Cup once ! Too many times the ref is blowing the whistle and making the flow seeem boring for me

[@ShiNooBi1986]

​@@mikespearwood3914 I'm pretty sure there is a bigger pool of Aus players than Kiwi

[@mikespearwood3914]

@@ShiNooBi1986 Probably half the playing pool in Australia are foreigners like kiwis, PI's South Africans, Britsh, Irish. Take them out and the sport will collapse in most areas.

[@jah211084]

Having kids in junior rugby in Aussie, I can say that issue that was missed by the video is the grass roots level. Expanding the super rugby teams before expanding and developing the base to support those teams is the problem, compounded by competition from other sports/codes

[@chrishodgson2247]

International teams in the modern era are merely just willing to poach mercenary players to fill the ranks to meet the ESG requirements handed down by the ruling elite. This is why we are seeing less cohesion and declining results and less passionate players as a whole.

[@campbellvearing5896]

Yep, I agree. I feel that the expansion could’ve been good, but Rugby Australia didn’t build enough players at the bottom to stop players moving from super team to super team. I would also say that we don’t give enough to credence to the vast distances we have to cover to play both international, super and even at club level

[@heezythecasual]

Same with Penrith, those two teams prove that the grassroots system works@@kata_winhangarra

[@bellingdog]

Rugby does have a big grassroots comp, it's just mainly focused on the upper class of Australian society

[@mikespearwood3914]

The problem is that outside the sports heartland base of middle- & upper-class people in Sydney & Brisbane, it has essentially no cultural relevance in Australia, and is heavily propped up by NZ/PI, SAF/Zim, British, & Irish migrants and their first-generation kids to provide players, match officials, coaches etc.

[@ShadeyFella]

I've said it for the longest time, and will continue to say it: Australian Rugby failed to capitalise on the golden period of the late-90s and early-2000s. League was hurting and recovering from the Super League Wars, the AFL was still in its infancy along the east coast, and the A-League didn't exist. That was the best chance rugby had in decades to dominate the sport landscape. With all the glory, attention and silverware, a national rugby comp should have been established, but it never was.

[@tombarrett212]

Agree fully. Two decades later and we’ve only just begun to step away from the stranglehold Fox has had on broadcasting rights. Hope it isn’t too late 🤷🏼‍♂️

[@mehmeh5471]

no one cares about rich mans sportsball

[@tinasherusike7458]

@@mehmeh5471 thats true

[@straight2thepoiint377]

Thank fuck were not living in that reality 🤣

[@ShadeyFella]

@@straight2thepoiint377 which reality?

[@kohbain]

Interesting analysis and it is true that super rugby expansion spread the talent thinly and overall hurt the wallabies. This was driven by big pay TV deals which put super rugby behind a paywall so only 30% of the country could watch games. Zero of this $$$ flowed back into developing the grass roots system which allowed the players to flourish and come through in the first place. This money was wasted on high performance units and expensive rugby league targets that mostly underperformed (let’s not even mention the Folau fiasco). The ARU got bloated and thought the money would keep flowing but with a confusing 18 team super rugby comp including Japan and Argentina, the Aus teams performed terribly and they lost the interest of fans. Now the competition has collapsed and all players want to go overseas to make some decent $$$. The allure of playing for the wallabies has faded. In the meantime Australia has one HUGE disadvantage compared to every single other rugby nation in that rugby is now the number 3 football code behind AFL (Aussie rules) and NRL (rugby league). AFL has 18 teams and is a thriving competition and NRL has 16 teams, versus 4 super rugby teams and now even that has collapsed. AFL and NRL games are frequently shown on free to air TV. Rugby is getting killed at the junior level because kids are no longer playing rugby here. Participation rates are embarrassingly low. AFL has made huge gains in traditional rugby recruiting grounds of NSW and Queensland. Kids are getting signed out of high school into professional clubs and rugby does not have the system or funds to compete. The reality is that we are losing the most talented athletes to the other codes. They are trying to change things but it is hard after so much terrible mismanagement of a once wonderful system. I love rugby and it pains me to see this slow decline over many years. Unfortunately there is no easy way out of this mess that has been created.

[@ragingboarproductions4634]

Cheers Kurt, you've covered alot of other factors which I agree have had massive effects. Just on the point about rugby struggling behind 3 other codes in Australia, the other country that has a similar predicament but manages to perform well is Ireland. Rugby there is behind Gaelic Football, Curling and Soccer in terms of popularity. However they manage to survive by nurturing rugby in the parts of the country where it is popular (Leinster, Munster especially) and then the entire country gets behind them as a nation when they compete in Six Nations and World Cups. Not to say that you can just transplant the Irish system into Australia and that would work but it shows that you can still get good results in a sport despite it being the third or fourth in show.

[@Bernierua]

Yes. You're so right. It was criminal how poorly managed the system was run. Chasing the $ without proper consideration screwed the grassroots all the way to the national squad. O'Neil rested on his laurels and left before everything imploded.

[@pdaddy4898]

5 super rugby teams mate, not 4.

[@CableB_]

While I’m more of an AFL guy, I prefer Union over League mainly because the NRL has little to no standards with their players behaviour

[@usandusonly32]

@@ragingboarproductions4634 It's hurling not curling. But yes you are 100% correct in what you said. Hurling and gaelic football will always be the most popular sports in Ireland but the growth of rugby in the past 20 years has been amazing.

[@seano4214]

Very well put together. It is good for rugby to have a strong Aussie team as it makes the game even better. As a Boks supporter I am keen to see a strong Aussie team again to make the games as competitive as they used to be!

[@WalsallGooner]

This is a decent analysis. From an English perspective, the 2003 England team had a core unit of Leicester, Northampton and Wasps players with 8, though Wilkinson from Newcastle, Robinson from Sale and Greenwood from Harlequins were key cogs in the machine . Fast forward to 2022, the best performing National sides in the Northern Hemisphere have their core units from Leinster and Toulouse for Ireland and France respectively.

[@liambarr8298]

Incredibly informative and well structured! Thanks for the content!

[@mauricegarvey4631]

Cracking vid visually, backed up with accurate data and a little history lesson for us all - subscribed

[@censu9986]

Amazingly well presented. Insightful and informative. Nice one mate!

[@simonmescal9136]

This is very good analysis. I hope your channel continues to grow!

[@aaanawaleh]

Very high production value for a channel with less than 2k subs. Well done, very informative.

[@ianm6204]

Rugby Union is dying in Australia. It has been for years. The history has been taking players from the Private Schools system or the Club teams they went onto. Lots of these private school boys played Rugby League for Club sides on the weekend. Many private schools now field Rugby League teams in their set up. Selling the game to Pay TV was the worst thing they could have done way back when, the game limited it’s audience and it withered on the vine as it got limited coverage to its fans and supporters. Rugby League and AFL have got the best athletes for decades and Union have been the also rans. Union has been badly managed at the top level for a very long time. Most of the squad would not make a Rugby League NRL team never mind a State or Test spot (I can not think of any) Union in Australia seems to rely on Pacific Islanders that are first or second generation immigrants.

[@troystaunton254]

100% accurate you’ve hit the nail on the head. As I say who’s want to be a wallaby if you’re literally an unknown in Australia. I couldn’t name a single wallaby.

[@ThatGuy-ky2yf]

Michael Hooper maybe? He's pretty world class.

[@matthewlaw5107]

Agree with all said. Remember the Raelene Castle saga!

[@watscrackalacking]

Side eyeing that last sentence….

[@Alaster-]

You make some fair points, and both NRL and union should be both envious of AFL! But this theory (union dying) has been told for years (at least since the 90s). Conversely, last ABS stats (some years ago now, but still well within the time everyone saying Union dying) , Union was actually growing in player numbers (where League incidentally was dropping and AFL & soccer increasing more so ). The Sydney comps are supposedly getting record crowds and increased grassroots following (according to those I know who have followed them for years). So I don't think it's all negative for union there. There's also a swings and roundabouts for talent in NSW & QLD where the private schools scholarship more talent to union, then NRL poaches them back. The NRL feeder school I went to, which was purely league, now fields union teams for regular comps as well (it only had a year 10 knockout team prior to that). Union's biggest failing is it's management at the top. In typical fashion, they have the mentality that the players are there for the management team, not the other way around (this seems to happen at many levels...)

[@RatelHBadger]

This was masterfully done with great analysis. Bravo!!!

[@hickeyrecode]

Great video. The success of the Wallabies in the 90s really did owe a lot to cohesion. You had an entire front row from Randwick/NSW (Daly/Kearns/McKenzie) an entire second row from Brothers/Qld (Eales/McCall), an entire centre pairing from Souths/Qld (Horan/Little), plus the halfback/flyhalf pairing from the Brumbies (Gregan/Larkham). That's just off the top of my head.

[@TheKinky4ever]

Wow great video really enjoyed it. Keep more coming!!

[@SuperRjBrown]

What an awesome presentation and graphics, subbing for the upcomming content

[@bodhid]

Great analysis and the voiceover has a very relaxing manner.

[@imnw2263]

I'd just like to comment saying that the animation and audio is fantastic. A really technically well put together video

[@mattpower138]

This is such a well-made video. Love the info and animations

[@MrBarkaro94]

So well put together The delivery the content, the animation, the authors voice what a video

[@kasparstrugar5280]

Really impressive production level and content nice work

[@briancurtis5796]

Fascinating analysis, well done!

[@anon7705]

Honestly - one of the best videos I have seen on KZbin

[@Aritro77]

The graphics are unreal. Well done mate.

[@jan7539]

Quality is next level. Finally we have a rugby channel like this

[@Sageta89]

Great vid! Would love to see more!

[@jvkanufan8115]

About the best analysis of pretty much anything on YT. Congrats!

[@JaydenDCampbell]

This was very well put together.

[@RobertSturrock]

This is such a superbly done video with great insight and analysis

[@tpshunter72]

This was a great analysis thanks for creating this.

[@Kalesttam]

Great stuff! more of this please

[@pdogzNZ]

Visually the best graphic analysis Ive seen for a Rugby feature.

[@Shannerz]

Fantastic analysis you deserve more subs 👏

[@charlesdurrantplasticsurge9451]

Great summary, Matt. Really looking forward to ‘Gold Digger’

[@tristanwhitehead6029]

Very well put together. Lots of work went into this. I’d love to know how this was made and why you made it.

[@Fl_OODY]

Very good! Great analysis mate.

[@AgentMoray]

This is brilliant. Fantastic and in-depth research and the motion graphics are flawless, I can watch this 5 times and not get tired of it. The only contributing factor that seems to have been ignored is coaching though - I do believe that influential coaches can make a difference if one looks at an Eddie Jones or Steve Hansen or Rassie Erasmus. Thinking coaches that come up with innovations.

[@lesblase3667]

Freaking subscribed mate. Ffs that was some bloody work you put in mate

[@jasonlee5279]

Really great video. I've always had a hard time figuring out what has gone wrong in the last 20 years and this provides a very logical argument.

[@donaghocallaghan8302]

Fascinating, would of never looked at the decline from this perspective and I think your right !

[@simon30469]

Just wondering will be making a video using this system for the upcoming international season it would be very interesting to see. Thanks for the content good stuff bro 🤙🏽

[@Villafarrell]

Amazing research, stats & graphics!👍👍 I'd forgotten how many years Oz had the Bledisloe in the late 90s, wow!

[@truebloodnz]

Really interesting points that you bring up, the data backs up your presentation. The issue for the game in Australia is how do you achieve sustainable grass roots growth beyond the private school model. The lack of new talent coming through in the numbers you need to sustain the current teams is concerning. The public has lost interest and the appeal to play union at junior level is probably at its lowest for sometime. Two teams provide an advantage to the national team, but neglects growth strategies and ultimately reduces your talent pool due to lack of opportunities. Rugby Australia still needs major organisational reform to ensure long term strategies are created and implemented. The Melbourne market is difficult to break through the AFL stronghold, but union is not marketting itself well to try and lure people to the sport either as active or passive participants. I understand a strong national team engages people, but neglecting the second tier in all markets leaves the sport vulnerable during lean years.

[@ragingboarproductions4634]

Couldn't agree more. Simply cutting teams isn't actually the solution anymore despite the fact it may boost Wallaby performance in the short term. The neglect of the development tier has hurt Australia and for years the lack of support in schools rugby amongst the public schools means it lacks awareness and interest in the younger generations coming through. This actually isn't a hard fix except for the fact the union is currently cash strapped and many of the existing schools competitions like GPS are reluctant to deviate from their existing competitions.

[@micsunday14]

I think rugby is choked off at a societal level

[@carloscerda8421]

Your graphics are amazing!

[@JanSanono]

This is very well made. I've always felt that the ARU lacked any kind of real vision on how to actually grow the game and instead just pumped money into a new team every now and again before turning around and deciding that they had too many teams again. There's no structure to it, it's just trying to grow the game by setting up shop somewhere when people already had their own teams to support. That and putting everything they could behind a paywall.

[@mikespearwood3914]

That's not true. The pressure came from NZR for the ARU to drop a franchise. This was NOT an ARU decision!

[@Pabsie1974]

Greeting from Wales. Really interesting video. Well narrated. Now subscribed.

[@AngloKiwi]

Good timing showing up in my recommended.

[@williamcarter3933]

Loving this! You can apply this situation to a lot of Rugby nations, its going to be great to see the knock on effect on Fiji and Co with them having proper provinces.

[@marlonclarke_]

Great video man!

[@Gallalad1]

This is an interesting analysis. Your point about feeder teams and how the Celtic nations reformed is particularly interesting. I'd love to hear your thoughts on how the IRFU uses Connact as a special sort of feeder team which takes in foreign players and then acclimates them to the Irish system before they go national. Mack Hanson and Bundie Aki being standout examples of this pipeline. Personally I think it's a core part of Ireland's rise in rugby. Each province serves a purpose in creating a national whole

[@nicohio3246]

Quite happy that I randomly stumbled upon this. The basic problem I noticed seems to be that Australia is the only top level rugby nation that is increasing their pool of teams, while all other nations around them that have maintained their level or improved have decreased their team pool or kept it the same. At first glance I thought if having 4 or 5 teams is making it harder for them then why does New Zealand not struggle with this? While you could give a chunk of the credit to the seemingly everlasting high level of play and players of the crusaders, I came to think its probably the fact that the system hasn't change for New Zealand is decades. Im now wondering if in the future with the amount of teams New Zealand has to choose from will to become a problem and will we see a level of play from New Zealand drop because of this?

[@Flyingsquirrel69420]

Interesting point/s, I'm going to add my 2 cents. I think the problem for New Zealand has already started. They've had a player drain issue since the early 00's, only over the past few years has it started to become a larger problem. The number of players they lose in every 4 year cycle is staggering. To use an example, the combination of Nonu and Smith in the centres was arguably the best New Zealand have ever had. If they had lost one of those players, they could've replaced them with someone almost as talented. What they couldn't replace is the immense experience those two players had playing beside each other. I think in the end Oz and Nz will need to work together to keep themselves competitive.

[@wilzilla]

England has 12/13 teams and seems to be OK. I think until Australia makes RU more accessible (like NRL) and keeps it as an old boys club then they're not going to get anywhere.

[@hanoitripper1809]

Nz always had the grassroots comps to feed those teams.. when super ruga started in 96 it was a case of who to leave out/ who to amalgamate with whom, whereas in the perth and melb markets they are Afl saturated

[@thefobbieii2888]

I disagree. As a product of NZ rugby the sport is NZs national game and from that NZ rugby has moulded such a internal strong model from schoolboy rugby to club rugby to provincial rugby to the ABs! Such is the strength of XV rugby, NPC rugby, Super rugby has created such a strong filtration process that it not only develops combinations but player depth! Such is the strength of XV rugby in NZ that NZ rugby will be never short of talent and depth because these competitions just keep churning out the players - this is where NZR has invested its money in this system! However these are the issues NZ rugby is suffering from a) Since the advent of professional rugby, club rugby has suffered because of the 2nd level of XV players not making provincial academies look to overseas contracts b) the rise of other sports c) mothers very vocal on their boys NOT playing rugby due to the rise of polynesians in NZ rugby competitions e.g. the banning of the game "bullrush" in schools d) the shift of provincial/Super rugby game times from traditional kick-offs to tv time slots has affected the support attendance of families, especially kids, attending live matches due to the late kick-offs! Catering for money from tv rights e) NZ is still a small population therefore financially not making money. Lot of provincial unions operating on scant profits or making losses NZ is predicted to hit the 10 million mark in terms of population by 2030 - this could have a financial impact on rugby then if the NZR can invest in club and NPC rugby again!

[@Flyingsquirrel69420]

@@thefobbieii2888 lol

[@andyklyen6885]

Excellent, thank you - Subscribed!

[@GnJs6PackTraining]

Wow, love the analysis of cohesion. Ive seen somewhere that Dupont and few other French guys have played together sine they were 5 years old! Cohesion.

[@sinnersavedbygracethrufait8933]

Excellent explanation!

[@how2digitalowen]

Phenomenal video, love it. I really hope Aus bounce back to form - so much more entertaining that way, I have always loved the Aussie style of rugby. Much love from Wales.

[@aikidoshi007]

Great presentation, thanks!

[@levvezvous1426]

Great video and beautiful infographics. Do you think this is merely an Australian phenomenon in world rugby, since the recent success of the Springboks has largely been attributed to the mix players, playing abroad in Europe and players, playing for South African sides in the URC?

[@presterjohn9624]

Superb! What a gem of a mini-doco. If you can do one on first class cricket I'll put you in my will.

[@markknopflerisnot]

Excellent presentation and analysis...providing a valuable insight perhaps a 'Moneyball' moment is on the cards as reward for your hard work

[@darbyjudd5872]

Most informative content I've stumbled upon in a longe time. For once I can feel justified when I exit my KZbin binge warren.

[@dimsum947]

Quality presentation 👌

[@Ivan-ev1yx]

Interesting perspective, it would also be important to add that the player base mostly comes from the same private schools and unlike other sports in Australia, rugby is not nourished by players from different socioeconomic spheres. That is why the good results began to appear with a new coach who added a substantial number of island players like Samoa, Fiji, Tonga or from rugby league.

[@sicboi]

This is a fantastic take and analysis, well done! This is definitely a new way of looking at this puzzle for sure, and speaks to what is common sense to organizational/team management practice but in an applied sense to my favourie sport to watch.

[@hosi292]

Very nice analytical perspective!

[@GenoAtkins]

Really interesting perspective on team construction. Here in England, Saracens made up the backbone of our national side going into the World Cup but now, there’s no dominant side and a lack of cohesion subsequently.

[@ragingboarproductions4634]

Eddie Jones is a massive believer in this philosophy. Watch and see him work towards it over the next year leading up to the WC in France.

[@dalenewton9697]

@@ragingboarproductions4634 HOw many tests does it take to build up the optimal cohesion level? With the players spread out amongst so many clubs now it's hard to see how he's going to achieve it by any means others than tests and camps.

[@Mumbles_]

This video is so spot on!

[@pabloexpulsado]

IMPRESSIVE!! Loved this!! Please do Argentina some day!!

[@longshot6566]

Great presentation and well explained. The visuals along with the stats really help tell the story. Curious - you’re put in charge at RA, what do you do? Do you keep all 5 teams? Bring back the NRC? Stay is SR or form a purely aussie competition like the nrl of afl? Somehow put rugby back on free-to-air?

[@ragingboarproductions4634]

Fair question. In a purely commercial sense you would reduce to 3 Super Rugby teams and put the extra resources and dollars into an NRC competition. This increases the standard of the top 3 SR teams by pooling the most elite 80-90 rugby players together and will flow into a better Wallaby team. That second tier needs to be created to allow players to bridge the gap between amateur and professional. Too many SR players that don't get higher honours can only fall back to club rugby which they are probably too good for. However, none of this comes without upsetting the various sections of the rugby community as evidenced by the Force getting cut back in 2017. In the situation that reducing SR teams just isn't possible, an NRC competition that has 15 to 20 rounds is imperative to allow the 5 teams to build good depth and be consistently competitive.

[@scruffystuff5494]

love the video brother

[@johnevans5196]

Best explained video on rugby to date?

[@Waywind420]

If you look at the team selections for the QLD Maroons and NSW Blues over the last decade, you'll notice the Maroons dominant era made minimal changes to their team sheet and kept strong cohesion...but the blues threw new players at them every year unsuccessfully ...until finally the maroons players all reached their 30's and aged out. Familiarity, combinations and cohesion. thats how you find success.

[@ragingboarproductions4634]

Absolutely. Their key playmakers were essentially the Storm trio (Smith, Cronk and Slater) plus players they had history with (Thurston and Inglis) and then players from only about 3 to 4 clubs. More recently there is a massive Panthers/NSW alignment which is seeing similar results forming.

[@offtodamoon]

@@ragingboarproductions4634 That's a great point. It'll be interesting to see if the rise of the Cowboys and Broncos in the next couple of seasons will lift QLD to series win. As a Blue I hope not!

[@JohnWick-rc6or]

@@ragingboarproductions4634 do one on the panthers or storms

[@johnmcdonald4455]

I think the relationship between minimal team changes and winning games is more of a correlation rather than causation. NSW had a pool of players that were less talented and consistent than the legends that QLD had to choose from - also it would be ridiculous to keep selecting players who are losing and a sure-fire way for the coach to get sacked.

[@KendallCove]

Brilliant illustration.

[@tommytrinder.1226]

If Australian rugby could just harness the wonderful talents playing attractive,open,expansive rugby for Eastern Suburbs,South Sydney,Penrith,Canterbury-Bankstown,St George,Cronulla-Sutherland,Wests Tigers,Brisbane,et al NO ONE would ever beat them.Ever.Ever again.Thats the real reason Australian rugby is terrible.Its called the NRL.

[@tylerf381]

The problem lays within the fact that the nrl is a lot better at making money and keeping talent

[@magnusmcgee993]

Two different games. Look at SBW: Forward in NRL, Back in Union.

[@ablewilling2778]

Lol ok 😂

[@TarsoBsAs]

I tend to agree. 1st reason is that donestically Rugby Union can't attract the best players as they choose AFL and League over Union and 2nd reason is that even with a limited pool of talents the ARU is not as organized as it used to be in order to maximize the use of that limited talent pool. This video explains #2

[@ORYXGREEN]

Nice analysis. 😊

[@coochwindgrass1606]

Great points. Points also to note, the ARU spends naff all on junior development in contrast to the AFL. I grew up playing rugby and stopped playing at 40 (most of my time was played In the bush). None of my mates I played with or against have their children playing Rugby. They are playing Aussie Rules, League or both

[@rdlogan68]

An enlightening presentation considering I’m viewing this as the rwc 2023 pool games finish.

[@wouterswanepoel5753]

Outstanding presentation of cold, hard facts. What a massive pity it is that Aussie rugby has taken such a dip. Regards from South Africa.

[@douglasgardiner664]

So while the video strongly suggests that too many teams is the source of Australia's decline, it also, perhaps accidentally, suggests that more provincial games is a potential solution. I note that last season was our most successful international season in some time, arguable on the back of playing a domestic provincial competition followed by a trans-tasman one, meaning players had the opportunity to build their cohesion within their team and within the nation before facing overseas competitors.

[@ragingboarproductions4634]

Not accidentally at all. We need to play more games in order to get better. Super Rugby at it's peak was an 18 game season with 3 weeks of finals if you got there. By comparison, the English Premiership has around 22 rounds plus the 6 games you get if you make the European Cup. So minimum 10 games a year. Plus each club in the Prem has an A side that plays underneath. Unfortunately Australia needs far more alignment underneath it's current Super Rugby structure to build up the cohesion needed to be more consistent. If you have that then you have a better chance of a Wallabies squad that has comparable levels of experience at a pro level and more game time with or against their teammates.

[@douglasgardiner664]

@@ragingboarproductions4634 Borth the ARC and NRC could have provided some really valuable additional game time, both for experience in a higher level than club and for building those relationships, and indeed Queensland's buy-in to the NRC is the basis of their current successful crop of youngsters. The politics associated with that, especially coming out of Sydney, and almost in the vein of cutting off the nose to spite the face.

[@huwtindall7096]

@@ragingboarproductions4634 Don't forget the Prem Rugby Cup comp (a 3 pool league with semis and a final) has another minimum of 5 games so the teams crack a minimum of 28 domestic games. Add Euro games and it's 34 and remember 10 of the Premiership clubs qualify for euro games across Champions Cup and Challenge Cup so pretty much every premiership rugby team has 34 games per year. Super Rugby is a part time job in comparison!

[@theultimatesharpshooter6734]

@@ragingboarproductions4634 Back in the golden era of Aus rugby when they played in Super 12 with those 3 franchises, even though it was basically 11 rounds + finals it was the equivalent of facing an international side every week and the internationals played every game.

[@simonskates9666]

@@douglasgardiner664 100% they still need that level just below super rugby. They need to bring back the NRC and get more players playing on a regular basis to provide a path for those players to get to super rugby. More Australian players playing games against each other to produce more super level players to make all 5 teams more competitive.

[@whattherichardd]

Such a good video, reckon you could do something similar for the Socceroos?

[@izzyvulaca]

Just came back from watching the AUS vs FJ RWC game, and I am guessing this analysis would be the same with the Drua team and relation to Fiji's current streak (AUS/ENG/ and what should have been WAL)

[@cormacmccoy1]

Super informative :D cheers

[@clay_arr]

Awesome analysis mate, I've been saying the same thing for years, obviously not as in depth as your explanation, I'm sure rugby Australia knows this, and you can see that the wallabies squad is getting better, but we have a long way to go. We will be back up there, I can't wait to see us winning consistently again.

[@johnreinho8862]

I'm not so sure Rugby Australia does know it.

[@spacecadetmcgee7349]

Eh, no.

[@SpawnofChaos2010]

Not much of a Rugby fan but I found this video exceptional. Would be very interested in how these sort of analytics are used to develop and adjust Grand Strategy, particularly in regards to national defence policy. Thanks for the presentation!

[@Calmdown1354]

This was a brilliant analysis. I always had an understanding on what these factors must contribute, but your analysis made it very clear, and covered many good examples. It's similar of what Eddie Jones did when he first took over as England coach, after our dismal 2015 WC, in basically selecting most the Saracens team, and the results were overnight! Would you say Rugby League is a big contributing factor in thier decline. It is a shame the way Union has gone in Australia of late! But I feel the wallabies are on the way up again!! Looking forward to the decider tomorrow!! 🏉 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

[@Mangocomatose]

as a fan this was a grim watch but as a piece of analysis it was a great video. Awesome analysis backed up by a unique and convincing metric.

[@ethanmann509]

I think since around 2013 and after in Soutb Africa we really stepped our high school rugby up. We by far have the most dominant under 18 rugby worldwide with top teams going on international tours and usually coming home unbeaten.

[@samuelcmercer]

Some valid points but the main reason is the NRL completely dominates in Australia and all the best talent plays Rugby League.

[@MrAdamh220]

well done .. really like it

[@johnliuaana6914]

Really good points however, I do think if Australia had npc type between super rugby and the Shute shield/qld club rugby etc. the tmi you talk about will increase as the selection of players will be from this comp and the cohesion will grew from the and their will be a wider talent pool to pick from to fulfil all the super teams needs

[@thecalculator1000]

This is great work. I really appreciate your insights. It's been a tough thing to support the wallabies since the glory days of the 80s, 90s and early 2000s. I'm sad to say I've stopped watching them.

[@domenico1373]

Great content!

[@davidsheeran5144]

Well explained background story of International Football Union Rugby team choose players for International countries Football union teams at International level. I enjoyed the video well done and keep up the hard work.

[@rh5466]

Splendid analysis. Really enjoyed the presentation. Perfect length too. Any longer than that and I would have started to tune out, such is my short attention span since the rise of KZbin and social media. I'm interested in how high levels of cohesion can in fact start to have a detrimental effect over time, such that players on the 'outside' stop pushing in the face of the near-impossibility of becoming part of the in-group (becoming part of the 'inside'). You can see this when a team with a high level of cohesion starts to tank after a success, whereby there was no new blood (young players) regularly brought into the team and the very cohesion that saw the team do well turns into a kind of monopoly that kills competition and creates insularity, complacency and stagnation. We can see this on the broader societal level too, with the tension between protectionism and free trade, or even more broadly conservativism and liberalism. There is strength in each, but only to a point. Diversity leads to little cohesion, and thus an inevitable movement toward social disorder and breakdown of 'the machine', and high cohesion means no diversity and a slow but inevitable movement toward fascism and thus inner-decay. The pendulum swings back and forth, and either the sweet-spot needs to be found for the sake of consistent strength or any given team (country) needs to go all in for cohesion for a primary, short-term goal. Western countries today are starting to crumble due to relentless 'diversity' policy and rhetoric; policy and rhetoric that was at one time in fact sorely needed because the system had become oppressive to people who were deemed 'not part of the team' and 'not good enough to be'.

[@1991quince]

Excellent video.

[@krismou9332]

very good video mate

[@maverickg3gbls132]

This is an excellent breakdown. Can't underestimate the power of animation to bring to life the audible stats. Especially for dumb-dumbs like me:) Also have subscribed.

[@foggy7577]

SUCH A GOOD VIDEO, christ i love analytics