The rise of "heliocentric" offenses in the NBA

Get a free week trial and 50% off at The Athletic here: www.theathletic.com/thinkingba...
Why are players putting up such crazy numbers? There's a new team-building philosophy that's sweeping the top of the league, and a long history of heavy-lifting that led us to this point. This video highlights some of the best players in NBA history along with analytics that lay out the league's fastest growing offensive strategy.
Seth Partnow's article on heliocentrism: theathletic.com/1427059/2019/...
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Book: www.amazon.com/Thinking-Baske...
Podcast: player.fm/series/thinking-bas... or at www.stitcher.com/podcast/ben-...
Website: www.backpicks.com
Twitter: @elgee35
Part 4 of the stats series explaining offensive load: • Beyond assists | Passi...
Ben Taylor is the author of Thinking Basketball, a Nylon Calculus contributor, creator of the Backpicks Top 40 series & host of the Thinking Basketball podcast.
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Footage in this video is owned by the NBA and its partners. It is intended for critique and education.
Player art by @CrumpledJumper
Music: 80s Hairlight

[@ThinkingBasketball]

Give a gift and support this channel with a free week trial and 50% off at www.theathletic.com/thinkingbasketball Would love to know if you think this "heliocentric" trend is the future or a fad.

[@rome8180]

Does this maybe explain why the Nets haven't looked that good with Kyrie? People want to chalk it up to chemistry, but what if it's just that Kyrie isn't quite transcendent enough to run this style of offense? I mean, he's a great player. But I don't think anyone would put him in the same tier as Harden, Giannis, LeBron, or Luka. Maybe you can only run a heliocentric offense if your sun has enough gravitational pull?

[@Kermit_T_Frog]

This is quite good. But unless I missed something, you left out Golden State. But I suppose that an argument can be made that the age of the super teams is over, but until a one star team wins a championship, GMs and the talking heads on TV are going to believe what they have always believed. That it takes 3 superstars to consistently win in the playoffs.

[@fazeedkotta2580]

You said at the end that only the sixers and clippers don't have heliocentric systems but would you not say the Celtics are the same? Kembas usage rate is much lower than 50

[@ball1slife107]

Its because of the generational talents tho

[@OjoRojo40]

Would you mind to define "playmaking". Also, when 3 out of your 5 players are "stars" then you have a good team not some guys saving the team. I always hated the "star" individualistic narrative constructed by the NBA and society at a larger scale. Thanks a lot for your videos.

[@penemuelwatcher2378]

I thought the grey haired character was Bill Russell... I just realized it's Uncle Drew. LOL

[@gqprince2]

realized that too

[@penemuelwatcher2378]

MANCHESTER UNITED F.C I doubt the international landscape will be the same by 2050 with the way things are going now. Some countries may not even exist anymore by then. And even if they still did, I doubt they will still be the same type of people. Nonetheless I agree that football will be the #1 sport eventually.

[@ishmeetsingh2922]

@@penemuelwatcher2378 it won't be probably dying coz of corruption. BORING SPORT

[@Mzee1084]

Haha me too.

[@doktarr]

The Harden bobblehead is worth waiting for every time.

[@kevinhoang9074]

doktarr and the uncle drew

[@VASTSports]

Analysis driven nfl discussion discord.gg/3AdWDgf

[@elcid6301]

@@kevinhoang9074 thought it was Bill Russell

[@pierreaoun9600]

@MANCHESTER UNITED F.C Ok but did anyone ask

[@sebastianclaudio3881]

Wait for the championships then

[@b5thomas7]

Luka arrived to the NBA at the perfect time. Going to be fun to watch him for the next 15 years.

[@Unknown-nc4jq]

actually its not a great time because now is the beginning of the Giannis era. But still fun to watch him.

[@tanver1443]

@James Robert More like full of BS.

[@Kaddywompous]

James Robert Luka is 20 years old. At 20, Harden was a much poorer Harden at Arizona State, and even now he’s not the passer or rebounder or defender that Luka is.

[@obsidianknight7491]

James Robert trae young is def not better and you can’t really compare them they play different positions

[@obsidianknight7491]

no player hits there full potential straight out of college luka has a lot of growth idk wth you’re talking about man

[@MrE_]

4:46 I thought he meant "Mike D'antoni's *sons".* I was like: "hmm didn't know he had children in the nba..."

[@VinceLyle2161]

You're not alone. Two minutes later, I was like, "OH, Suns!"

[@irwinjanlagare8800]

hahahaha. that got me.thinking too.

[@BigPurp9]

I thought it was just me. I was like “I don’t remember that Phoenix team being nicknamed ‘D’Antoni’s Sons”😂

[@colinfloyd5788]

You've never heard of Mike, Dan, and Tony?

[@alphabah49]

That’s quite the list Jordan, LeBron and Curry

[@futurehofer1564]

Just dont show this to bronsexuals 😳

[@hectorgaytan2424]

@Lord Beerus harden and Mike D would be wise to use the regular season to create a team offense instead of having everyone stand around and wait for harden to decide if he is going to shot or pass and just stand at half court. They have a quality team but the pieces are not being used and the more time passes the more it feels like harden is like Westbrook who can do all he wants regardless of the benefit for the team but if they get shipped to another team will not have the same freedom.

[@BoscoTungWaldo]

Lord Beerus Hardens top 10 though.

[@benwoodcock8805]

Yeah I don’t think the rockets will ever be that good as long as harden is doing this much of the shooting. He can get double teamed, and he’ll get tired and it will be more difficult to get results. It looks real good on the stat sheet but in reality it’s not the best way to win

[@Floyd_Steel]

What was the year that Curry did that?

[@jameslearing970]

Is there a way to measure load on defense?

[@TheTariqibnziyad]

@dhsilv2 I think fg% drop is one of the strongest stats out there for defense, you have just to take into account the efficiency drop of elite players, and a big sample size is required to eliminate anomalies.

[@mitchellholcomb1561]

@dhsilv2 Do you think there's a way to factor in shot locations compared to the defender? For example, do teams take more shots outside the paint when Gobert is standing in it? Do teams tend to shoot from the wing opposite Kawhi? Etc.

[@TheTariqibnziyad]

@dhsilv2 that's a good point, but I'll argue fg% drop has its value even here, cuz if it dropped to much then of course no one would like to attack you.

[@TheTariqibnziyad]

@dhsilv2 I prefer to lower the fg% of my opponent than to prevent him from even attacking me, cuz that's good for them they still have the ball, while in the first case ill show them that they can take the shot, but it would be a difficult one, that's why I said you need a huge sample size, it eliminates the effect of the anomalies you discribed.

[@duancalitz7534]

I feel like blocks, steals pick and roll swaps and rebounds could be your best bet.

[@jingqi9106]

Jerry West was a player that delivered high assist totals and scored a lot of points so don't forget Mr Clutch. In 1972 he averaged 25.8 points a game AND led the NBA in assists at 9.7 per game. The year before that he averaged 9.5 assists and 26.9 points per game.

[@Jerry11201]

4:39 looks like nash is running down the court in stilettos

[@lokihve6591]

Please revisit after the playoffs. Let us have a look at how they were each successful in their approach and maybe analyze Let's see how much number 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 teams relied on it. Would be interesting right?

[@unbearablepun8608]

Loki Hve You have a good point. To refute it I shall put forth effort too. We all can agree that the NBA champion is always one of the best teams in the NBA. That’s the same with all sports, the best team wins. During the regular season, let’s say for example the Rockets, don’t only play playoff teams. They also play bad teams. Bad teams normally don’t have great coaching or may not have great players and with less talent and worse schemes, it makes Hardens offensive load more possible. I’ll prove that with this scenario, let’s say the Rockets are playing the Heat in the finals. The heat have many different playmakers as well as good defenders and a smart coach in Spoelstra. The Heat are doing everything they can to win the game, that is drawing up any possible scheme to limit the Rockets best player’s abilities (James Harden). In the regular season, teams don’t have the time to prepare and they also aren’t only preparing for one series. This will cause Hardens load to drop, other less talented players will try to pick up slack and efficiency will fall resulting in more losses. So the argument of let’s see how the seeds end up does not matter, because regular season is different than postseason. Teams with players above a 55% load have not one because of this exact reason. They are suppressed in the playoffs due to better talent and coaching which results in exponentially less efficiency and means losses. All the matters after a season is finished is the champ, and whatever Harden does against my very bad pistons, won’t matter. By the way I love James Harden but in life there’s always only one most efficient solution. I don’t know if he can do it trying to carry the Rockets like he is.

[@noob.168]

hmm what playoffs

[@skyedogg]

@@noob.168 :(

[@pierreaoun9600]

@@skyedogg :D

[@cedarwod_]

These videos get me through the week

[@chucknola484]

1:53 Holy smokes they even traveled back then without getting called for it!!

[@acecheso4958]

basketball is pretty hard to ref 😂

[@snake_eyes_garage]

I agree with Charles Barkley who said he’d ask to be traded if he had to stand out on the 3 point line and wait for the basketball every single play. Boring.

[@pranavjagada9016]

No team would ask him to do that since he's such a bad 3 point shooter.

[@snake_eyes_garage]

I was at a Spurs-Suns playoff elimination game. The game was tied, Spurs we’re losing momentum late as they would do in those days. Barkley dribbled the ball down the court, and held up at the three point line guarded by David Robinson. Charles knew he had nothing to lose as he taunted Robinson to come up on him closer. David knew that Barkley could blow by him and so he took the chance like you said. With the clock winding down, Robinson bit and got up on him, Barkley hesitated a drive, backed up and hit the three. Dagger. Great game but for a Spurs fan that was a tough loss.

[@JaredTG.]

I'd stand on the line and take 0 shots a game for an NBA contract. Just getting paid to travel basically.

[@thedarkfrost2351]

Conradk65 lmao cool story but that’s one game, he’d still never be asked to stand by the three point line

[@snake_eyes_garage]

@@thedarkfrost2351 Ha yea it wasn't a three pointer - just found the game - it was a two, but he made at least 2 three pointers that game. But yea - the round mound of rebound was his specialty... :D kzbin.info/www/bejne/iXSoiYGQdredg7c

[@itchyballz300]

Westbrook at 74 percent his MVP year?!??

[@shyshka_]

well yeah if you think about it. 31 points and 10.4 assists on 42.5% volume shooting and 5+ turnovers while averging ONLY 34 minutes per game.

[@290TheEmpireRecords]

@@shyshka_ houston is proud to have #44...clutch city!!!

[@BoscoTungWaldo]

Monumental achievement and unhealthy at the same time.

[@Geassmaster55]

@Rodzilla lol what about last year with a healthy CP3 and no KD and Steph with 0 points at half

[@Getloose360]

@@Geassmaster55 😂😂😂 true story. If they diversified their offense even slightly, they would have beaten them. D'antonio's inability to make adjustments kill his teams.. oh well.

[@DocEsquire]

One of the best videos on the channel. It’s amazing to see trends that we notice subliminally explained in so many clear ways. It all makes so much sense, and it’s brilliant analysis. Thanks for what you do, Thinking Basketball!

[@gt12kar]

you are insanely good. one of the best videos of the year. great breakdown

[@nikekilla]

Thinking basketball>BballBreakdown

[@VictorFPoB]

Easily.

[@James-jy6et]

Totally agree. BballBreakdown is too annoying/pretentious (that's just one reason).

[@BoscoTungWaldo]

Thinking Basketball > any basketball related content.

[@Terror832]

Thinking Basketball is the Michael Jordan of NBA analysts

[@Tethloach1]

true in recent years

[@christianestrada1316]

earned a sub always trying to grow my knowledge about the game and gaining different perspectives.

[@Oncopoda]

By far the best basketball analysis on KZbin. Appreciate you man.

[@James-jy6et]

I don't think I've encountered better. But Laker Film Room is really good too.

[@elgato49]

I love, love, love your videos!!! Massively underrated channel. I hope you blow up one day... figuratively speaking.

[@kushagraagrawal7292]

Can you please make a video revisiting this topic? It would be interesting to see whats changed in the last 2.5 years and what has worked for teams

[@lakkuto]

Excellent video, I'm always waiting for the next one

[@513morris]

Basketball in 1955 looks like a modern high school PE class.

[@fabolousninenine30]

They had different rules back then and less offensive freedom. They still had moves. Look at Wilt, Frazier, Pistol Pete, Big O, Jerry West, etc.

[@PorkTips]

Idk bro that play at 1:49 never happened in no PE game I ever seen

[@thelatest1968]

I agree,basketball PE class in the 80's very similar to the 1955

[@willrich7209]

I like that you bring in the older eras with your analysis a lot of people today disrespect the previous eras like they weren’t skilled

[@nikagogibedashvili6476]

This video matches with Ringer's similar video very well, but much more depth + historic aspects as one would expect

[@dlano67]

Data is beautiful. Great narration too, sir. It's gonna be fun watching Doncic and Giannis for the next decade!

[@maxtu7859]

Couldn’t wait for another video it’s been a while

[@bennytao2546]

basically Heliocentrism win MVP, while balance teams win championships

[@DragonXXXX1000]

Yup. I have a feeling Philly going to win the chip this year.

[@osemudiame123]

Didn’t the Lebron James cavs Win a championship

[@bennytao2546]

James Esch Duran my point is heliocentric more often works in regular season but not so much in the playoffs thus win more mvps but less championship

[@bennytao2546]

James Esch Duran heliocentric style the top guy needs to play make and scoring right , which means all eggs in one basket. It’s easier to defend in 7 game series. It’s also easier to construct your team because it can work when you have a superstar and four role players. This is the product of point forward and star having more control so the coach have to cater to their way of playing. Which contributes to more triple double stats .

[@bennytao2546]

James Esch Duran it’s easier to key on one player in the playoffs because close outs are better defensive pressure are much tougher so the spacing you are talking about gets tighter, it’s just easier to defend . There’s reason why most heliocentric star stats deminish in the playoffs. Playoffs and regular are different games that’s why I said they win more MVP but less chips

[@TELEthruVOXx]

Me and my buddies call this the LBJ system. And to my eye it works for regular season games when defenses don’t want to close out. Luka and the mavs run this a lot.

[@DJ-ys9pv]

Except for Lebron, Curry and Jordan it worked in the postseason as well

[@Lenrom12]

Thinking Basketball and The Ringer are far and away the BEST NBA content!!

[@traeyoungshair1023]

You should join the ringer. Your content is amazing my dude, keep up the good work.

[@yoda112358]

I find it interesting that the Warriors have been so successful without doing this, in large part because of the ability of three of their best players over the course of their run (Curry, Thompson, Durant) as off-ball players, coupled with having multiple playmakers on the floor at any given time with Curry, Green, and to a lesser extent Durant and Iguodala.

[@oluwaseyijohnson3162]

Having 2 of the best 3 point shooters of all time and the second best player in the league would do that to you. Don't know how that's impressive though

[@Hak616]

@@oluwaseyijohnson3162More like 2 of the Top 5 players on 1 team, that was insane. That too the best shooter amd the best offensive player, they were unstoppable.

[@BullyMaguire387]

@@oluwaseyijohnson3162 They developed them, you guys just seeing the result, other teams will not develop Klay and Curry the way they are now you just can't admit that, cause you are a typical person who only see the result of success and will say "that's too easy", yeah you are that type of guy and sets you as a big example of it. 🥶

[@acommenter4252]

@@BullyMaguire387 They signed ONE GUY. Everyone else was basically homegrown talent.

[@yvesmija]

i love this so much thank you for this

[@Antzzz_Manzzz]

Great analysis 👍🏼

[@schlomostern4913]

Thanks, excellent content. Heliocentric model--love it......

[@nathansky8017]

I really like your explanation! In my honest opinion, increased usage and offensive load really improve the player in the eyes of the public, as the news can say "He did ALL he could, what more could you have asked?" However, the level it has reached, with Harden in 2018, Westbrook in 2017, and to some extent LeBron this year, has really taken away the beauty of planned basketball. For me, even though Jordan, Curry and LeBron had those huge loads on offense, the teams around them still felt like... Teams. You still had Pippen/Klay/Wade, you still had Rodman/Draymond/Bosh, and you still had those role players in Kerr/Barbosa/Chalmers, etc. And of course the monster's head was a great coach, that directed the offense to work as a team. Now, you feel as if only that one star, whether it be Harden or Westbrook, have the power in the team. It's nowhere near as balanced. Sure, I enjoy watching 60+ games, but (and I don't want to admit it), they have become repetitive. So much so actually, that they don't feel special. It feels like the player is benefitting from the system TOO much. It's fine if it's a game or too, after all the playoffs are known to feature more star heavy offenses than the regural season, but when it's every game? I really don't enjoy it.

[@seanhurley4003]

In addition, all players are trained in this style. Used to be only Stockton/Malone and Nash/Stoudamire who had killer picknroll games. Now moat guards are at least decent at it, and most bigs know how to move to get into a good passing slot to recieve the pass

[@jihming7270]

The Ringer did a video on this subject recently as well. What great overlap imo.

[@pedromdcc13]

You think you could do a video on CP3 or Duncan one this days? I would love that

[@seano6859]

Thanks for not overloading with ads

[@kwamehameha4359]

Awesome analysis

[@pieroangela1119]

Your videos are too much for us, we don't deserve them. You're incredibile, man.

[@Eastcoastplayer187]

Valuable info asfff🚫🧢💯

[@hippystyle6551]

Dope Video 👍

[@nofuture_at_all]

It's effective on regular season but as you said, it didn't get championship. Basketball is teamwork and ball movement is more fun to watch than these players carrying the ball the whole possession.

[@JohnnyScumbagg]

Love the videos !

[@WhelmedButReady]

For the Back To The Future reference alone this channel deserves a half million subscribers

[@poiszg23]

Cousy travels at 1:53 LOL

[@dasdet6505]

That's the NBA missing blatant travel since 1955 then I swear we're going to find footage of George mikan getting away with travel any day now

[@cookiefp]

laughed at that also haha

[@Frankincensedjb123]

Today's offense: stand at the 3 point line while one guy dribbles around

[@billmilligan7272]

You know, it's funny ... I used to see you commenting a lot on FZ videos, and now I see you commenting a lot on NBA videos, and I'm pretty sure I've seen you comment on other things I've watched. Are you my long lost twin with my exact same interests or are you just youtube-ubiquitous?

[@lorenzo6mm]

@@billmilligan7272 the three point line is a load of bull

[@sp123]

Bill Milligan it happens to me too, I think KZbin is targeting you guys with the same algorithm

[@sp123]

Frankincensed it’s called the 4 out offense

[@beemajic5773]

No different than teams like the 90's Rockets dumping it to Olajuwon and waiting to see would teams double before scoring or kicking it out to shooters. Just an inverse.

[@gardreropa]

A great concept and a great video! I find it interesting to see how the "heliocentric" teams perform when their superstar player is out... Currently, Luka is injured, and the Mavericks seem to go along just fine... So, how much "heliocentric" really are the Mavs? Keep up the good work and greetings from Slovenia!

[@Sylvestror]

A form of sustainable heliocentric type of team needs a second star to pick up the slack and be that star which the rest of the team orbits. For example the Mavs have Porzingis, the Lakers AD

[@tiggerk2392]

Ooh that's very interesting! I wonder how an analysis of the Raptors this season could look like considering they dont have established "superstar" players?

[@jasonholbrook8845]

It’s crazy to hear how good Bob Cousy was He’s basically my neighbor who lives about 5 streets down for me in Worcester Mass. I first met him when I worked in the dermatology office back in 2004 and to look at him was like in awe

[@johnjensen4430]

You’re voice and analysis of the game is second only to David Attenborough and documentaries!

[@isaac.avena33]

The full court pass from dwade to lebron was absolutely insane

[@Lemon_Drums_USA]

Great great content, in every way

[@dantheman6888]

Harden has that off rating at 77 when wb is on the bench bcs wb does so well at taking the pressure off of him when harden sits. The rockets play really well with wb on the floor and Harden on the bench. Before no one could alleviate that off load for harden thus he would get gassed having a high off load. Now with wb taking more of that load, harden can go off when hes on the court and wont be as gassed. They are also missing Eric Gordan which im sure would lessen hardens off load. You can see harden is less gassed bcs he tries more on defense now.

[@TheElectronicsMan100]

Very interesting video to put these players statistics and playstyles in perspective. Is this a better offense than a more evenly distributed offense? I'm inclined to say no, but we are definitely about to see

[@imperial7873]

The best content plus nice promo hahaha

[@ubadman1]

in the deep playoffs these systems seem to struggle becuase elite coaches and teams force the center of these offenses into fatigue, high stress, and mentally drain them. we have seen westbrook, harden, lebron, and curry all fall in the playoffs because these systems dont and cannot adjust on the playoff sries format. facing the same team for 2 weeks in the playoffs makes these player-centric reads and offenses struggle. having a system demands a string coach sure but it also allows a team to adjust in playoff series.

[@CoolStuff-yr8ye]

Lebron led the GOAT postseason offense in 2017, with that player centric model, so idk about that one.

[@JimmyKillem69]

we have seen many more teams/systems fail to win despite having a more balanced load we don't have enough data

[@devvv4616]

Lebron's probably the only one who successfully done it and win, although he still had Kyrie who can do the same. There's a big difference with a spread type offense consisting of multiple playmakers like the Warriors or the Cavs had compared to having only 1 go to guy like the Bucks. In the Buck's case, once you shutdown Giannis like the Raptors did, they fall easily (same case with Harden's past Rockets teams).

[@ubadman1]

@@JimmyKillem69 teams with coaches that have talent and hine thier systems has resulted in juggernaut teams like 2017 warriors and 2014 spurs. Those teams you could see were just so much better.

[@darkoneforce2]

@@ubadman1 Pretty much. They were basketball's Brazil 1970.

[@martinhodell8465]

a graphic suggestion: use a stacked bar (one bar with sections for scoring load and playmaking load) rather than side-by-side. it'd be easier to understand, as you started referencing things (% of load from playmaking, total load overall) that were hard to see on the chart.

[@Caesarsinclairjr17]

greatest channel on youtube

[@casualfandestroyer2503]

I love when you include pre merger content

[@supune]

That was great analysis. I hope some of the hot take shows use your content to drown out some of the uninformed hot takes that dominate sports journalism. Made me wonder if you could syndicate your content into those mainstream shows

[@stuff2z]

I feel like this trend will decline when teams start to realize this formula doesn’t win chips, it’ll slowly decline. Give it 5-10 years and these crazy heliocentric offenses will be incorporated at a smaller scale.

[@Ryan-yu5kt]

Youre only saying this because of Houston. What you mean to say is that this formula isnt able to beat the best team ever ina healthy Golden State, along with EVERY other system as well.

[@Thanosdidtherighthing]

YeetGod McNeckAss Replace James Harden with Michael Jordan, and the Rockets win two back to back champions.

[@t4d0W]

I mean to win chips, you need balance. You need multiple players who can play at a high level who can be versatile scoring threats and can play both ends of the floor. Lebron was a one man wrecking crew for the Cavs in his first run but the quality of his teammates was not on that level to be able to win a chip. Take him to South Beach with Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and a bunch of shooters/solid role players and lo and behold two chips in 4 finals appearances.

[@gravityfel7896]

dunno. People had once said 3-point shooting doesn't win championships.

[@Ryan-yu5kt]

@@Thanosdidtherighthing So youve now concluded Jordan is better than Harden.. Wow bud.. Youve really come upon a realization with that. Jesus christ lmao

[@ryamjohnbaylon8583]

Heliocentrism offense is pretty much MyLeague with a 99 overall player in a team with a lot of shooter

[@pinkfloyd36123]

i think you should have looked at the eastern conference finals from last year where you had the absolute peak of heliocentrism (the bucks) against the total opposite (raptors). the team with more spread out playmaking ability won, and they won precisely because of that. playoff defenses will always force the ball out of the hands of stars, and if the roleplayers around them are only used to catching and shooting, the offense falls apart. heliocentrism wins regular seasons, not playoffs.

[@deeperson7711]

dre facts

[@Thanosdidtherighthing]

That’s not why the raptors won lol. The raptors won because their superstar Kawhi Leonard can shoot so he could take his time and picks his spots offensively. Giannis on the other hand can’t shoot so he has to force shots at the rim over contested big men. Kris Middleton is better than Kyle Lowry.

[@Eggmancan]

I would wager this is trend we will see for the next few years, if not the next decade. Analytics has pushed the game to threes and layups, and a "heliocentric" system is perfect for achieving that. Either the rules changes or there are some serious innovations in defense that stop heliocentric play. I'd be curious how someone like Jokic fits in with these guys. He's definitely the star of the offense and is great at playmaking, but he rarely initiates the offense.

[@t4d0W]

IMO Jokic doesn't fit in part because he's not as dominant offensively as Lebron, Doncic, Harden or Giannis. Lebron can do it all from the perimeter and the occasional back to basket moves. Doncic has displayed the best PnR mastery this year and dicing up opponents going to the hole. Harden of course is always a threat scoring inside. Both men absolutely exploit the step back 3-jumper in the best way possible. Giannis is transcendent transition scorer and nearly unstoppable coming downhill even in half court. It also happens he's working on a very consistent 3-ball jumper too. And all 4 guys have great court vision to make plays as Jokic does and at better positions on the court besides the top of the key, the elbow or the baseline.

[@paquinraino8180]

@@t4d0W Jokic can be a monster in offense too with his post move , the fact is Jokic inspired his game from Boris Diaw, Nash, Kidd or Duncan, that's mean no flashy play, no stat padding, he really don't care about the stats but more about the team winning, look at his last playoffs when he went he is an absolute monster

[@fleshyspeakers]

1:57 holy shit that footage is smooth asf

[@Mzee1084]

Interesting that you didn't mention any rule changes that may have had an impact on the appeal of this model. I would think the defensive rule changes such as zone or hand checking would have a big impact as it enabled much higher scoring games, and for players like Harden and Lebron to get much higher points and assists.

[@deepthreedesign]

Damn these videos are good

[@supachef_dmoney_4]

Thinking Basketball, your content is Bible when it comes to analysis

[@1969GrassHoppa]

@Thinking Basketball, thank you. I enjoyed this video. It's my first. Not my last.

[@aasedf2083]

If only one player is supposed to be making 70% of the decisions then you're gonna struggle whenever he's not in form (jumpshot not falling, fatigue, struggling against one specific defender that gives him problems...), not on the court (just saw that with LAL v NUG yesterday) or when a specific defensive scheme is drawn up to stop him (giannis last year). It is overall a 'safer' system to get wins because you live and die by the decisions of an excellent player whose gonna make the right one more often than not, but the strength of the system is also its weakness. One of the reasons why a heavy offensive minded soccer team like guardiola's 09-1X barca was unstoppable is because all the players were capable of making the right plays, beating their guy in a 1 on 1 (different ways depending on the player) and on top of that had a player that had the ability to be a one man offense - Messi. It was the basket ball equivalent to doubling all the opposing team's players on the court, which meant you were always atleast one pass late no matter how athletic or smooth your defensive rotations were. That's what the spurs of dunc-gino-tony were like.

[@johnsaintilma8872]

Heatcheck and Thinking Basketball are the Magic and Bird of Nba Analysis

[@Zvilll]

Holy i just got enlighten !!

[@thearacit1878]

Great video as always but please bring the old background music back! It was way better

[@mako4874]

bst show on the internet- best basketball show in the world. better than ESPN and breakdown combined. hope u get all the success in the world

[@magic4412]

8:10 - 8:37 Interesting points! I have the impression this is a result of moreyball influence on the game. Offensive systems like the triangle and motion depended on players with high IQ to be executed, it was more fun to watch as a viewer... Nowadays most teams play Moreyball, a low IQ system that reduces players agency and alienate them since it limits them to shoot the most efficient shots instead of having a versatile read of the game!

[@GianlucOne88]

I agree with you most teams play moreyball nowadays, but it's because, as you said, it requires less IQ to be run properly, and let's be clear, not every player in the NBA is a basketball savant. As a team, you work with what you have: if you have smart players who are able to make smart reads of the game, you'll run a more versatile game style; if not, you run moreyball. I think that's the point.

[@magic4412]

@@GianlucOne88 I understand that moreyball is the new trend! I just think that having no flexibity on your offense is a huge liability in the playoffs when you face elite defensive teams, as seen by D'Antoni and Budenholzer teams. Do you think it's a coincidence these coaches are known for not making adjustments? They put too much faith in analytics!

[@willhooke]

Are you sure the Triangle takes smart players? It should not, in my opinion 😊 It is just a series of progressions that require drilling and humility from players to submit to it, rather than thinking they know best. But you have to practice the drills!

[@t4d0W]

On the contrary Triangle (and the derivatives like motion based stuff) depended on personnel than just high IQ. There is a reason why when Phil successfully ran the triangle he always had players like Jordan, Shaq and Kobe who were absolute double/triple team threats and it simplified the game by easily moving the ball where the opening was created because of the gravity of those players. And Steph is such a threat with his shooting that even teams have to account for him when he's moving around on the floor like a wing. So it benefits player like Klay and Dray who can put the ball on the floor to score or kick it to Curry outside for the 3-ball. You can have high IQ players but if they aren't a major scoring threat that opponents aren't trying to scheme double teams on them immediately, all that ball movement falls flat since the defense can just lock down easily. If anything much of the successful perimeter/wing players now trying to be successful with a 5-out offense have to be better with read/react decisions AND have a respectable 3-point jumper. Even better is that the good playoff teams who are a threat to go deep have those kind of perimeter/wing players who can PUT the ball on the floor so they too become a threat for defenders to try double down besides the best player of the team.

[@johntachristmas6894]

Great point! I wished the NCAA paid its players. So much of basketball IQ is developed at the collegiate level. Players jumping straight into the league miss out on developing a deeper understanding of the game by going straight to the NBA which breeds moreyball players instead of well rounded ones.

[@bryanyplee]

At 3:36, shouldn't play making be in green? Or are the the play making and scoring columns reversed?

[@jamaallewis3520]

He just put the 18% in the wrong spot, the heights are accurate.

[@badLuckRiley]

Jamaal Lewis but the green bar for MJ doesn’t show 18%. It’s somewhere below 10% if I’m reading it right

[@giorgioIP]

The graph is a mess

[@toteispoe4]

@@badLuckRiley 18% was to show how much of Jordan's load was from playmaking and was not that saying that his playmaking load was 18% of his team's offense.

[@RRAAII17]

Since then we have seen the Heliocentric Lakers, Bucks, and Warriors win rings, and loaded teams like the Bubble Clippers and Harden Nets flame out. It works

[@anqipu6021]

It seems that a heliocentric player, a finisher and 3D players can easily conjugate a championship team... role players' capability matters significantly

[@nicford1486]

I miss old basketball. Or what you can still see in college. Complex offenses, team chemistry, ball movement, etc. that basketball is so much more fun to play and watch. The ball centric stars that pound the ball the whole possession, drive and either kick or score are... a shallow version of basketball. It’s high art and low art. Low art is easier to consume. The Star, drive and score/kick is easy to digest and create.

[@TheTariqibnziyad]

I think the main problem with this model is defense, your star cannot have the energy to carry a +50% offensive load and play elite defense, unless it's Wilt or MJ, and that is what makes the difference in the playoffs.

[@glen4662]

Any video is great. But I prefer the individual player profiles.

[@melmartinez7002]

The Celtics definitely leaned on this model with Isaiah Thomas and then Kyrie Irving. But this year have moved away from that with The Two Jays both taking on more playmaking. When Hayward is healthy they have 4 players who seem to share the offensive load fairly evenly. Yes, Kemba is still the primary, but he seems to shift smoothly to a secondary or tertiary role as the matchups dictate. And seems to love it.

[@NiceTriGuy]

Interesting analysis but how do you discount last years champs without even a mention of how they did it relative to your theory?

[@akeemjames2409]

Did this video creator study Jared from Wisecrack? The styles are roughly similar with different nuances. This guy Ben has a Jared like touch with assimilating non-basketball lexicon into his videos without sounding cheapishly constructed, he's fluid with something like "Cousy was able to quarterback the offense". He says it with such touch and ease that you don't really buy into the idea that he's mixing terms, it's like he's giving a different dimension to the player with such an explanation.

[@williamli3872]

If anyone else is confused by the graphs, I am pretty sure the playmaking load % should be in green above the green bars.

[@sairam7669]

I found this video quite interesting. Can i know how much players like charles barkley, tim duncan or even shaq/kobe shouldered during their prime years before the 2010's? should be an interesting comparison i feel

[@n0body550]

Huh you went as far as having the animated players height represented, small detail but smart

[@Alexvudoo]

Bring back “Csus instrumental” 😢

[@JWB19]

Yoooo. This shit most definitely changed my mind about Kawhi Leonard and why he should be considered top 5 instead of top 3.

[@09lowkey]

It's interesting to consider what this increased load will do to the expected length of these player's careers. Does the increased load decrease the amount of time they're able to play professionally? Lebron can be seen as an exception because of his natural physical acumen. But say a player like Westbrook, will his heavy load decrease the amount of time he'll play. For instance, Steve Nash wasn't physically able to play come the end of his career. How will that effect basketball historically? I think the state Luka's career 10 years from now will say alot, given he's so young.

[@celticpredator6981]

Great video but I was curious about teams that made 1000 3s in a season and found that it was the 15-16 Warriors and not the Cavs that were the first team to hit 1K 3s in a seasoj

[@jaccbolton]

Yet no one ever says that Steve nash changed the game. Much respect OG Nash

[@brianlee8327]

Who else here likes Ben’s videos before you watch them?

[@alexhernandez3482]

I would - but I get unreasonably paranoid KZbin will somehow discount it. So I wait until the end

[@MrE_]

@@alexhernandez3482 lmao what? You sound like me lol

[@denmarkcollo]

And BOOM!!! They got the championship!

[@Johnrap]

On my son Nick's 8th grade CYO team last year, a typical winning game the team would have 30 points, with Nick scoring 20 points and having 5 assists. Additionally he'd block about 10 shots a game on defense. The team lost their first 7 games of the season. Then they won 8 of the last 9, to finish the season 8-8. The first 7 games they tried to mix it up. The last 9 games they just gave the ball to Nick every possession. Nick would either drive to the hoop and score, or drive and kick to a shooter. The only loss in their Nick Heliocentric games was a 3 point loss to the first place team. That first place team finished 16-0. The Nick-centric play style was a heavy burden though. Nick had shin splints at the end of the CYO season and ending up missing two months of AAU season.

[@The1stFishBone]

Trey Young and Kyrie Irving are proving this style of offense only works with an MVP caliber player.

[@b1bbscraz3y]

Kyrie is MVP caliber for his talent, he just has the mentality of me score first make plays for teammates later. love the dude but that's what it is

[@idk970326]

Trey Young is really good and with better role players would succeed. Kyrie on the other hand is just overrated because his mentality and decisionmaking is pretty bad. Boston and nets are showcasing exactly that where the team is just better without him

[@WinterFrostx]

Kyrie was always the Little Brother that he doesn't want to be Better as a lil brother to LeBron and will be when KD returns

[@b1bbscraz3y]

@@WinterFrostx hopefully, the best thing KD will do for Kyrie's game is make him a more willing passer and get the ball out of his hands. he has to trust others more

[@WinterFrostx]

@@b1bbscraz3y Kyrie can't be your main scorer/ballhandler History has shown

[@emwafa]

great video but the graphs are confusing. would have been better if it was stacked, like a bar is offensive load, a portion of it is for playmaking

[@starfyre59]

Graphs were fine, you just gotta pay attention

[@emwafa]

yeah it’s fine, but could’ve been done better (the bar graphs, i mean). great graphs are supposed to help you see the narrative visually and not add to things your brain has to process