The Road to Brexit: Are we there yet? | FT

[@FinancialTimes]

Read Robert Shrimsley's latest column on Boris Johnson's government: www.ft.com/content/a5b0a20a-4418-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c. And subscribe to the channel to get notified of more videos from The Road to Brexit.

[@TyranAmiros]

Great series - hope it continues!

[@FinancialTimes]

Thank you Tyran. It will!

[@oliveragag8576]

Hopefully they won't have to

[@jebbo-c1l]

My favourite political content

[@jim7771]

I love the videos these two make together!

[@righteousshift482]

One thing that's become obvious during the negotiations is that the EU have much more skilled negotiators since the Tories sacked our civil servants.

[@hannahberg609]

after all this time I am yet to see the advantage of Brexit

[@redpeony]

The benefits are all for US billionaires. There are no benefits for Britain. It's losses all the way down.

[@redpeony]

​@@geowallace9758 Brexit isn't building Rome. It is taking away citizenship and vandalising Rome.

[@redpeony]

Europe has been united four times but Brexitters are modern day vandals.

[@sjruksjruksjruk]

@@redpeony Grow up you remoaning snowflake

[@redpeony]

@@sjruksjruksjruk Don't worry about the Brexitters, they inhabit a fact free zone. All they have is insult, lies and hyperbole. Evidence Repulsion Shields cover their entire bodies. No fact can make it through. Covering even their large parts? Well, because of these shields, even their small parts are large.

[@Jonpoo1]

I’m not sure how protected our fish industry will be if we do welcome free trade from all over the globe. The hard right of the Tory party would happily sell out our manufacturers, our fishers and our farmers in favour of a highly charged services based economy fuelled by questionable (or, rather, better not to question) money and fed by super cheap food from low labour cost, low regulation countries. Robert’s right that mainstream economic theory would agree. But mainstream economic theory assumes a society of rational actors and anyone watching over the past few years would seriously question that assumption.

[@BigHenFor]

It's dead in the water. Check how much quotas are actually owned by UK fishing companies. A lot of their quotas have been sold on to ships owned by EU companies.

[@jacobjorgenson9285]

As soon as the EU says, everything ells for your service sector, the UK position is undermined

[@edsr164]

Can’t wait for the Netflix series!

[@frederickaeolus1975]

This is great content. The KZbin algorithm buries it for me unfortunately. Is there a chance you could put it out on a podcast feed so we know when you've released a new episode?

[@Asdayasman]

You know you can subscribe, right?

[@FinancialTimes]

Thanks Frederick. We'll look into it. In the meantime, you can subscribe to the Financial Times KZbin channel if you want to be notified of new Road to Brexit episodes. Let us know what you think.

[@DougHanchard]

There are significant gaps both Shrimsley and Green left off the table. In the second half of the year, the issue of existing EU / UK Nationals, Financial Taxation Treaty, Travel, Airspace Rights, Work Visas had better be close to an agreement on the first half or there will be no second half of the year that isn't dominated by all of these. Equalization tariff details is the single biggest deal breaker which the EU will not give up. Fishing is not going to save Scotland. Cars and other high volume mfg industries, will eventually leave the UK over the next 5 years. To avoid negative public backlash, company's will phase in withdrawal of these jobs and move them to the EU. It makes zero sense for them to remain in the UK with new border checks, delays and additional costs for mfg industries. Not all, but many will. This is especially true of manufacturer's that export over 60% to the EU. Those that remain in the UK will continue to heavily invest in automation and robotics to reduce labor costs. I'm also sceptical during the second half, the issue of Northern Ireland and Scotland will be ignored or left off the table. If details of the first half are not solidified, then I believe it will be incredibly difficult to maintain focus on the objectives needed by the end of the year.

[@darrenbellenger1]

The ONS report into the effects of Robotics/AI/Automation conducted by PWC always stated car and mfg industries in the UK would be under pressure, well before Brexit. As countries move to a knowledge economy, the EU's FOM starts to work against a country, especially one as small as Britain with an established and generous welfare state. The issue about Northern Ireland and Scotland is also a bit of a misnomer, as Westminster allows them to run substantial budget deficits. In Britain we are well aware that the SNP operate pretty much as the Bloc Québécois do.

[@DougHanchard]

@@darrenbellenger1 Yes. Automation was already underway before the referendum in 2016. The point is, it has accelerated and has become priority #1 or #2 instead of #5 or #6. As for N Ireland and Scotland, given the results of the Dec. election, I'm of the opinion given which parties won (Nationalist), the push to simply update devolution will be met with strong resistance if the signs of the Brexit deal doesn't go well. The Quebec Bloc has very different dynamics, rationale and political elements and is not comparable.

[@darrenbellenger1]

@@DougHanchard Agree with you on Automation and Brexit may actually help Britain in the transition to a knowledge economy. Boris is the only political leader I have seen discuss it. As Scotland get closer to another referendum (which they will) we'll see whether Scots will stomach reducing that deficit, or the SNP just hold out to be allowed to increase it! thereby acting like the Bloc (looking for money).

[@DougHanchard]

@@darrenbellenger1 Well.... Problem is, automation only makes employment, Taxation, trade tariffs even harder to stave off. What may surprise many is those industries that stay in the UK will be owned offshore, literally in the EU. Such an economic outcome will not go well over time. As for Scotland, they will strive for breakaway and attempt to join the EU. This is where it gets sticky and problematic for the SNP; it doesn't have the time to drag this problem for 5+ years. And the reality is, even if Scotland got a vote for leaving and won, it would take at least that long to hammer out a new EU deal and require giving up the Scottish pound and it's central bank. Two things that cannot be negotiated like Norway and Sweden have managed to do because Scotland will require massive amounts of subsidies and new border control. As for Northern Ireland, it is truly unpredictable what will unfold and far too early to determine what they will do. I do believe there is a small possibility conflict could return.

[@darrenbellenger1]

@@DougHanchard The EU only allows entry to those operating under a maximum 4% budget deficit, Scotland run nearly twice this currently and was nearly 10% a few years back. Northern Ireland also run a deficit and Southern Ireland are already discussing an emergency EU loan post-Brexit, depending on the future trading agreement - so could not afford reunion. Automation is not about making employment, quite the opposite, it does not. The ONS report in 2011 estimated over 9 million job gross losses over two decades, with a net loss of 1.25 million. Removing FOM and introducing a PBI system would alleviate these losses. I would though agree that automation as a whole is beneficial to GDP and is an inevitability, but taxation in countries is generally run by taxation of workers, certainly in Britain. With regards to the future UK/EU relationship, I see happier times ahead due mainly to our friends across the pond who would love to setup a quick fire interim FTA, thus heaping pressure on EU trade negotiators.

[@PEdulis]

"It will become clearer in the middle of the year..." Well, we're there, could you make a new video on how much clearer it became, please?

[@darrenbellenger1]

They haven't analysed the part where a few months in Boris sends a trade delegation to the US to start discussing everything the EU wants. [Edit: In answer to a question - the US can speadily sign interim trade deals through Executive powers]

[@wolfetone2012]

Is that the part where the US house and senate tell the UK to bugger off? After all as long as peace in Ireland is under threat, the US is not going to agree to any tradedeal with the UK

[@hydra66]

the US stands to gain more by prioritising trade with the larger EU block than the UK. We're not a priority unless we give everything away

[@darrenbellenger1]

@@wolfetone2012 Well we can only go on what the US administration have said with regards to prioritising a deal.

[@darrenbellenger1]

@@hydra66 Same answer as to Wolfe, we can only go on what the US administration have said with regards to prioritising a deal.

[@wolfetone2012]

@@darrenbellenger1 or better yet we go by what US law states. Which is that a US president can negotiate a tradedeal, but said deal must be passed by both the senate and the house. So trump, if still in office, can start talking all he wants whilst Schumer and Pelosi are laughing their arses off telling the world it shall never pass congress. Oh wait, they already did that. www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

[@jacobjorgenson9285]

How will the union jack look with just England, Wales and the Falklands ?

[@montygemma]

@frenchie jones Yes, but if Brexit is a success and Scotland get back their fishing rights the SNP will soon go back into obscurity. The Scots make me laugh when they talk about independence, be independent by all means but how can you achieve that by applying to become a very small country in the EU. They'll have them change to the Euro, probably make them drive on the right, they'll have less say than a country like Bosnia.

[@CharlieVane21]

The digital bong was as good as the real thing. if no one had said anything ...

[@amaetfacquodvis2450]

Well done GB! Greetings from germany :)

[@Natasha-tu5qs]

"I just want a gherkin without fins" - don't we all Robert. 😂 Fantastic, entertaining yet also deeply informative content, yet again guys. Well done! 👏 And please continue throighout this ' transition period'.

[@brianmacadam4793]

BoJo has an electoral "advantage" at present. Based on winning a majority with 29% (+/-) of the electorate. While his majority gives him some important advantages, the fact that a large majority has voted against him could become a significant counterweight. Huge demonstrations can "sensitize" political electoral advantage.

[@CharlieVane21]

Japanese car manufacturers we'll leave regardless of Brexit, they now have FTA with the EU so there is no reason for them to manufacture cars in the EU(see Honda). Miranda should know this. Mark Carney didn't say 'might', he was adamant that the City should diverge. He's right, staying the same will see seepage more than divergence would.

[@jaysterling26]

At least Tony Hart isn't alive! Actually, I think he'd just enjoy two adults drawing anything ( what a godlike genius he was). Well done ( non patronisingly said).

[@markbriggs5531]

Most enjoyable and informative as always but be careful how you draw Robert - your fish looked more like a "gentleman's part"! I couldn't hear the audio at the time as the kettle was boiling and I wondered want on earth was going on!

[@stevehardwick8681]

Love these videos. Could you do one on the expected benefits of Brexit please?

[@FinancialTimes]

Thanks for the suggestion Steve. We'll ask Robert and Miranda to look into that question.

[@Barrheedyin]

Well 2 years on, it seems to there are no tangible benefits, loss of European workers have left us with farmers, haulage , care sector and hospitality and more struggling to find staff, fisherman may have more control over the British waters but as the eu buys most what we catch, with new customs checks and hold ups at ports this industry it is now on its knees. On top of this the Irish conundrum over the protocol rumbles on. Northern Ireland seems to be doing well better than Britain as it’s still in the singlemarket. I conclude thhis price so called sovereignty is to high and is imaginary anyway.

[@noahbowie5985]

Did anyone else find it ironic that the first TV show after Brexit was hosted by an Irishman

[@Iazzaboyce]

No. All of Ireland used to be part of the UK and some of Ireland still is part of the UK.

[@martinoleary5268]

@@Iazzaboyce You've put your finger precisely on the sole cause of wars, terrorism and for most of her history, economic under development in Ireland. That was (and still is in NI) English interference.

[@joshkennedy4476]

Brilliant as always

[@montygemma]

If Boris doesn't get the fish back that will lose him many seats in the future and certainly the end of the love in with Farage. It's a very sensitive issue because it involves sovereignty which is probably the main motivation for Brexiteers.

[@b00i00d]

Brexit more important than Graham Norton? Imagine that!...

[@domr8796]

Love this

[@TheYanbibiya]

We are out. No deal. Bet yer. And that's great

[@BrianMcGuirkBMG]

No detail. No plan. No clue. Marvellous.

[@martinoleary5268]

@janday Sorry, you're still in. It's called transition.

[@95winston]

Parliament has always been sovereign whether in or out of the EU

[@MyEconomics101]

Robert Shrimsley had neither dry January nor Veganuary.

[@balham456]

Has anyone seen footage of the French police and French fire service brawling in Paris? If Macron fails to secure access to British fishing grounds for the French fishing industry, he’ll have a problem.

[@jacobjorgenson9285]

They will get access because the Brits do not eat enough nor process enough fish. And if the UK wants to sell those fish, EU boats will catch them

[@runedyrting8476]

The Nissan FT!

[@lennylaa1686]

More sinister propaganda from these rather obvious globalists. Times/FT = far left globalists. The New Dictators/NWO.

[@harold4506]

The road was sabotaged by remoaners, but now they have been Silenced.

[@mrsmith9031]

DOWN WITH BREXIT

[@Asdayasman]

:^)

[@edricaldones9639]

Cringeworthy Brexiters are creating bloody blue, white and red bongs, while overlooking all the stuff that is yet to be negotiated.

[@edricaldones9639]

@Ray Von I understand very well what your ilk were voting for. I'll never accept it as a good reason. The only traitors here are Brexiloons.

[@edricaldones9639]

@Ray Von 11 months, nitwit, that's when the transition period ends. But you obviously wouldn't know that.

[@scambodia147]

Edric Aldones I know that you are a bad loser,get urself a cartoon of tissues you immature unpatriotic negative twat!

[@edricaldones9639]

@Ray Von Dream on, laddie! You'll be fought every step of the way by people with brains.

[@edricaldones9639]

@Anonymous UK ok, then: a majority of voters voted for remain/2nd referendum parties on 12 December, so Brexiters are all traitors.

[@andressanchezcasado4433]

EU is a peace project

[@dandarth-kc9cf]

Who cares. Goodbye and buzz off!!! Don t come back.

[@idems75]

If boris ws serious about no deal and half competent , he will expande uk custom number and infrastructure like the rest of europe to at least start to mitigate the problem at the borde on uk side who will happen if there is not a open border between UK and EU. By wto rule you have to treat all country with whom you have no trade deal on the same basic no discimination. So UK have control all good EU include or doing the worst starte for trade deal negociation by not follow WTO rule So stupid or boasting you decide ???

[@LouisEguchiWale]

Hilarious sketching attempts

[@FinancialTimes]

Thanks Louis. Watch the whole series here if you're interested: kzbin.info/aero/PLrhpR40o4n5yDWeoRMX1lKbUmW42Q_Ace. Let us know what you think.

[@danielwebb8402]

If there is going to be a year of tiny recession / 0.3% growth. As he says, have it now. Will be a one-off blip before back to basically unchanged growth before next election. Strategically "cliff edge" sooner is best.

[@BigHenFor]

Dream on. You're going to lose a huge amount of your manufacturing, and Agriculture too.

[@peteroneill2991]

It is very simple Bozos (or should I say the money behind brexit) real prize is a (great ?) trade deal with the USA, Hence a border in the Irish sea and not on the island of Ireland. Huawei will be part of the trade negotiations you could say a bargaining chip.

[@jaysterling26]

Ah, someone is asking the fundamental; " who benefits?" question. Game theory suggests a no deal. Then suck & see , then more talks, ad infinitum. Johnson bends more to US(!). Any job losses blamed on scapegoat(?). War breaks out with Denmark as Faroe Island Fishermen ( & women/ trans fisherhumans - v. progressive them Danes) invade Shetlands. War over in 24 hours without a shot; Faroese just wanted more whisky; bad news escaped unoticed. Population unaware. G'night!

[@leocavalcante6203]

It's not Brussels time,it's Berlin time.

[@1669Python]

"Grape shot" Interesting comment @ 19.18

[@dean1039]

'Grapeshot' was a type of ammunition used in the 17th & 18th centuries, consisting of several small projectiles being fired at once from a cannon. So in this context, he is referring to many arguments being debated at the same time.

[@1669Python]

Thanks @@dean1039. I was interested to see how many would understand the context.

[@Charlie_Ses]

How's that second referendum looking?

[@ShadeReckless]

Like it would have been a good idea

[@Charlie_Ses]

@@ShadeReckless The delusion is strong.

[@mickgreer2146]

Miranda, stop putting your hand on your chin, it muffles the sound.

[@maxminkin6227]

Hwarwey

[@boykovasilev8834]

Stop talking and leave! Get Brexit done!!👍

[@someoneelse531]

FT Remoaners

[@someoneelse531]

@There's No God Perhaps you should have done some research before moving halfway around the world. You would have found out that Deutsche Bank is bankrupt! turning the EU into a 3rd world continent

[@Charlie_Ses]

Remainers until the end. It's all rather dull.

[@swanky_yuropean7514]

Yes, they don't promise any unicorns, how boring.

[@Charlie_Ses]

@@swanky_yuropean7514 A persistent negative mindset is tiresome and demoralising. And impedes our ability to thrive. I voted remain too, but at some point you have to get over it, and look forward with positive energy and determination. Doom and gloom will lead to exactly that.

[@swanky_yuropean7514]

@@Charlie_Ses Well its pretty hard to be positive if no one can actually point to anything substantial that will be changed for the better.

[@Charlie_Ses]

@@swanky_yuropean7514 Stop being so miserable, it's depressing. Seriously. By that logic you'd never be positive about anything new that you didn't know the outcome of. The outcome is what we make it. The future is never known, in or out, either way it's important to remain optimistic.

[@swanky_yuropean7514]

@@Charlie_Ses Thats just stupid, its like saying you should look forward to having cancer. If there are clear advantages to a decision people tend to be more positive. Brexit however as i pointed out before seems to lack any advantages. Even Brexiteer seem vindictive instead of being happy, despite having supposedly won. Brexit resembles perfectly the "sunken cost fallacy".

[@benenty692]

These people don't know anything

[@Charlie_Ses]

So negative.