The Sad Truth About The Future Housing Crash

[@matthew8505]

He finally flipped his opinion! The market is about to crash!

[@MrSupernova111]

lol

[@KevinVanGelder]

You forget that a large number of homes are owned by short-term rental companies that are soon to go bankrupt with the lack of customers, forcing a glut of inventory to be released on the market in a short period of time.

[@BPoweredLove]

This entire video makes a good point if you live in a fantasyland where all homeowners sell homes ONLY by choice, never necessity. Unfortunately for the video maker, we live in reality. As for where i live, inventory is already skyrocketing.

[@ca417pc9]

All it takes is layoffs and everything changes.

[@BPoweredLove]

@@ca417pc9 Exactly, and they're coming in more and more.

[@morrival98]

I usually agree with your take but inventory is up significantly everywhere...So you are wrong people are selling because they fear losing value...People will cash out the profits and rent...

[@BrawlDown]

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[@BrawlDown]

She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.

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[@0r00ney]

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[@felixtoulgoat3185]

The situation in Canada is different. For years now, the canadian government has encouraged many immigrants to come in the country, without ensuring that the housing market would follow the increasing demand, hence the rise in prices. And there was also probably some market prices manipulation. As for the US and the rest of the West... I frankly think that the markets should be much more severely regulated. After all, the housing market doesn't serve the same sort of purpose as a financial market, so there really is no reason to leave it completely free: you won't kill the investments or the economy by regulating the prices. There is around a housing crisis every 10 to 15 years in a country, so it is that much pain (and public debt) that could be avoided.

[@FortisPolyPlastics]

I don't necessarily agree. Consumers did lock in low rates during the pandemic. However, taxes were low, utilities were low, food was lower. The same upgraded home they purchased in 2022 now costs them hundreds if not thousands more per month. If they upgrade a car and lock in an avg 7% on a new vehicle at the national avg of 43K they'll be burden again. The macro's are somewhat unprecedented and volatile. We haven't had an inflation event such as this one since the 90s. We'll see, both opinions are valid until something more definitive drives the economy.

[@SeekerofTruthnWisdom]

“…Caught everyone off guard” Speak for yourself, everything that’s going on right now and everything that will unfold I have called and will continue to call down to a tee

[@PatamaGomutbutra]

The asking price is flaw.People can ask high to the moon but no one buy. The more people unexpect the crash the more likely of crash to hapoen rather than just recession.

[@metrisliving696]

I wonder if 7 trillion dollars being handed out had anything to do with the increase in housing prices, supply and interest rates?

[@jamessullenriot]

Canada is not a good comp. In fact, it's a literal mess right now for a few reasons 1: Most people live in the few major urban centers, so prices generally rise based on that. 2: Mortgage renewals. Every 5 years, or less, depending on your terms, you have to renew. This was find for the past 20 years when rates were low, however, now that rates rose up .... essentially every home owner will be getting a higher payment for all the renewals coming up until 2025/26 3: There is a literal clown running the show up here and his name is Trudeau. The election is in in October 2025, so will have to wait and hope he doesn't do any more damage over the next 1.5 years

[@JonSmith531]

Your analysis is flawed. People will sell (death, marriage, jobs, etc) and when they do it sells at the current rate and affordability. The sale prices will reflect the higher rates and this resets all the comparable properties in that area even if people never move. Your logic was also used in 2006 and 2007 by real estate agents to explain why prices would never go down and we all know what happened after 2008.

[@MHFIN]

The people who sell due to those circumstances make up a very small percentage of the overall pie.

[@ralphjessee2688]

I'm seeing plenty of listings that permit assumptions of the mortgage and at low rates. The problem is the outsized price they are trying to get (mostly to cover the outsized price paid).

[@JonSmith531]

@@MHFIN that does not matter. A few sales reset all values in an entire neighborhood. Thats how comparable sales work in real estate appraisal.

[@House_hacker_619]

@@JonSmith531what we have right now is more comparable to 80’s market its called stagflation. In the 80’s inflation was at 12%, interest rate at 18% and unemployment rate at 10.5%. It didn’t crashed market and it took a decade for market to correct.

[@House_hacker_619]

@@JonSmith531last crash happened due to subprime and ARM loan that caused an overbuilding. Now it’s totally the opposite.

[@pessimisticpenguin]

A counterintuitive thought about lowering interest rates causing housing to skyrocket higher, it is likely that if we reduce interest rates then current home owners who are "locked in" to houses with mortgages at 3% or lower will be able to sell those homes and move, since this is a large part of the cause for such tight inventory, we may see an actual fall in housing prices if interest rates lower and locked in homes flood the market.

[@DaveDDD]

I agree that this would increase liquidity, but not necessarily availability. If someone is selling their house to buy another, then the net gain is 0. We need more availability - either by building more affordable homes or by adding homes back into the SFH market by incentivizing people who own more than one home (landlords, short term rentals, vacation homes, etc) to sell, probably through higher taxes.

[@user-oh6ox9hz9c]

Why do ALL these youtubers forget to mention the 40% of homeowners have no mortgage and are not locked in and are free to move at anytime. If you also add the 20% of mortgage holders that do not have a low rate. This means there are 50-60% of homeowners that can sell at anytime without worry.

[@shanerogers9386]

What bout that 30 percent of all homes sold nationally for the past 3 years are scumbag flippers and investors. And in some areas it’s 50-75 percent. Completely fake run and and will not sustain

[@soniasbooks]

They probably also have a low property tax payment that would be much higher if they bought another house.

[@studentaccount4354]

They also forget to include the real price of maintenance. Floors, ceilings, walls, plumbing, electric, appliances, cabinets are just a few examples of home wear and tear. It can be expensive to replace rotting deck wood, roof shingles, gitters etc. we are talking unexpected expenses in the tens of thousands. Throw in unexpected person health expenses and affordability is not just interest rates and disposable income.

[@ralphjessee2688]

This video is making a very large false equivalency. Most of the recipients of the EXTREMELY low interest rates on a mortgage paid EXTREMELY high purchase prices. (Sure- If they stayed the thirty year term and if they could juice the taxes and if they could make the insurance and if the place was well build and didn't require expensive post warranty repairs and hang onto their job). Lots of ifs.

[@sanbetski]

Hey the guy needs to make videos regardless of accuracy. So called youtube gurus

[@ThatGuy-uv2br]

We will continue to be in a difficult housing market if inventory does not increase. However sometimes people are forced to sell and can't just wait it out. Divorce, deaths, layoffs, and loss of insurance all cause people to sell - even if they want to keep their rate. Layoffs and insurance issues are definitely affecting certain markets more than others though. Not only that, but inventory can come from builders as well, which is the case in Texas where there's lots of homes under construction. Who needs existing owners to sell if there's plenty of new houses on the market with special deals?

[@AgainstOdds]

Kind of pathetic to compare January to April to exaggerate when you can compare the same month across.

[@ryukirito2616]

The only issue is that with tax increase and home/multifamily insurance problems that could (unfortunately) get people sell and leave their homes with those low rates locked in.

[@Dee-w5y]

Home values are declining, nationally.

[@KippinCollars]

Judging from this data, we're in for one helluva crash.

[@edgarmiranda1822]

Why nobody addresses the elephant in the roo? As soon as unemployment goes up, demand for housing will greatly decrease! We are close to record low unemployment, are you telling me unemployment will stay this low for a long time?

[@MHFIN]

No but I don't think it will change the overall price outlook for homes. People don't panic sell unless they are underwater, and right now they have so much equity (due to value going up 40%+), even if there was job loss, they could always just reach into that equity to extend payments

[@edgarmiranda1822]

@@MHFIN You're making a huge assumption, and that is that mortgage holders will be able to easily find someone to refinance. We both know that lending standards are increasing. Although I am not making a comparison, it is an analogy and an example that there are circumstances in which no bank is willing to refinance with previous valuations, and I am referring to China's current housing crisis, home values collapsed and no bank is willing or able to refinance a mortgage with previous valuations. This is my theory: House prices will decrease greatly, but they have been inflated so much in the past three years, it will be a haircut instead of a housing crash. It makes sense to wait at least until the yield curve re-inverts and unemployment goes up a couple points. If six months after that happens I see house prices increase or stay stagnant, I will admit defeat and jump in the housing market.

[@sean32038]

"lowest interest rate in 5,000 years" 🤦‍♂😂

[@fsaldan1]

At the same time interest rates were negative in Europe and Japan

[@MichaelGolpe]

You've explained the alternate theory quite well. I am curious how "hidden inventory" may come into play.

[@SocialismForAll]

Housing is an essential need. Why are we doing civilization if not to make sure everyone has what they need? Also, people with low mortgage rates may not be willing to move now, but when a recession hits, and they can't afford payments anyway, there will be forced selling.

[@drewbsn]

This captures my sentiment. Taking my time (haha 4 years of waiting wasn’t enough?) to buy because it still feels risky, but I am still trying to buy

[@MEWOVER9000]

My cope is that, as millenials and Gen Z age into prime voter age and the boomers die off, Government policy will shift to incentivize new construction and put downard pressure on the housing market. The signs are already showing of this happening. This would take over a decade to sufficiently drop prices, however... In the mean time, I'm just going to pay cash for a condo and continue living my life.

[@MrSupernova111]

The problem isn't lack of inventory. The problem is large institutions hoarding residential real estate. No amount of new construction is going to alleviate prices when institutions keep hoarding inventory as fast as it gets built.

[@deanayer3822]

I know someone in Connecticut that just sold out at a really high peak price and started renting in anticipation of a substantial market correction. Even if they rent for three years they will still come out well ahead if the market just goes back as far as early pandemic levels.

[@jameswilson9361]

If someone faithfully paid the same $750 rent for ten+ years he deserves to keep his low rent since he basically paid for half building itself. Its not like he signed a lease agreement.

[@straightdrive6192]

home prices are only determined by supply, has got nothing to do with demand, demand is always there and will be there. There will always be people who want to buy a house because everyone grows old every year, thats how time works 😂 , a 20 year old is 30 in 10 years down. there are so few houses for sale because people who bought for 2-3% never will need to sell. I only see home prices are going to keep increase to unreachable for many because fed at some point have to reduce rates. People who already own a home will see their equity in their homes sky rocket in next couple of years. Congrats to all those who already own, For those prospective buyers hard luck, mostly you will be house poor.

[@arandmorgan]

People don't bring up demographics when talking about house prices. The population is decreasing, demand will fall, prices will decrease and no longer be an investment option. This is inevitable. Artificially inflating the market bubble is futile and will only put people who bought into it, in massive negative equity.

[@johnsmith-ol9qj]

Yeah so the problems isn’t the people with low cost options. The problem is the people too greedy to just continue making homes for that low price.

[@ritchierobershaw2093]

Same problem with Prop 13 in CA, no incentive to sell which drives up prices :)

[@findingsuccess6457]

Talk about wages and the monetary gap of rich and poor

[@miked1542]

Thanks for this informative post. I’d love it if you could also show impact of institutional buying and short term rental investment buying during recent years as continuing to low inventories we see in many local markets today.

[@miked1542]

Meant to say …contributing to…

[@josephweiss2271]

A dynamic similar to what is happening now occurred in the late '70s to early '80s is the most likely scenario. The market slowed, inventory was low, and people only bought and sold if they had compelling reasons/circumstances. House swapping was in vogue and assumable mortgages were a big selling point. Many people became landlords renting homes they couldn't sell. The market didn't collapse, most people didn't walk away from their homes, they found a way to carry on and unfortunately some suffered foreclosures. So the market was stagnant or in a stasis. Most people just stayed put, creating a low plateau in housing market activity.

[@internetpointsbank]

Mortgage and taxes are $2000 a month at 3% but the place can rent up to only $1750 a month.

[@josephweiss2271]

​@@internetpointsbank Then rent until the market forces align so that owning is more cost effective relative to renting.

[@internetpointsbank]

@@josephweiss2271 Agreed, I dont blame anyone for buying right now. Even in the hot areas there is plenty of houses to choose from in many price ranges. 6 months to 2 years ago its was crazy. You buy what ever was available, pure fomo.

[@kalef1234]

I'm not buying nor will i be in the market for a LONG time. The market IS kicking people out, I am building a box truck into a house and that's where I'll be for at least 5 years saving way more money, investing and living whereever I want. fuck real estate.

[@danman1287]

its bad to compare different mkts but they always pick n choose no one compares ours with the architect of FEd policies Japan they r giving homes away now ... RE deflated there n took many years have have YET to exceeded bubble prices despite zero rates Italy is giving homes away n soon Canada is a major Disaster unfolding (THE BEGINNING)

[@barryballinger6023]

In other words, we need legalize missing middle in every city. At the same time, punitive taxes on every home owned after the first and higher taxes on vacant land in upzoned areas.

[@dennisleise5393]

Wait, you mean after 4 years and dozens of videos the sky ISN'T falling?

[@internetpointsbank]

If paper rectangles is the sky then yes

[@skippy_g_]

Do you have a video on what happened in 2008? Most of your timeframes start in 2018. Kinda a joke if you’re talking macroeconomics with housing

[@randomguy2809]

The government should probably provide tax breaks to real estate developers who build multifamily units, although the real solution is going to be changing zoning laws to allow people to build duplexes and multifamily on their own land.

[@soniasbooks]

Instead the government charges developers a lot of money…

[@randomguy2809]

@soniasbooks if you want less of something tax it. The inverse is also true.

[@cranjusmcbasketball7247]

Not Sad for everyone!

[@NAC_Exec]

Maybe I will be able to buy a home by the time I am collecting my social security checks.

[@marionalbergo1146]

Your premises is wrong. People that bought years ago will sell and use that to buy a house for cash ……

[@mr.gamewatch7547]

But they will have to buy another house that is just as ridiculously overpriced

[@MHFIN]

That quite the assumption

[@House_hacker_619]

Not everybody I still have my 1st rental property in San Diego. I purchased in June 2009 during crash and I’ll never sell it.

[@M1Fortunes]

Excellent presentation

[@sandrawesseln9619]

I clicked off in an angry rage.

[@MHFIN]

Oh no

[@userperson5259]

The "US government" does not control interest rates (4:30). The Federal Reserve does, and it is a privately owned bank.

[@MrSupernova111]

You have no idea what you're talking about. Go take a money and banking course.

[@userperson5259]

@@MrSupernova111 You think the Federal Reserve is a govt. entity? Think again, friend. Do your homework before you reply. The govt created the Fed, but the stockholders of the 12 regional banks are all private banks.

[@jasoncarter4343]

This will take time. A good, hard recession will put things into proper perspective for many leveraged buyers and loosen up inventory. I still expect a housing decline into 2027 coupled with lower mortgage rates.

[@studentaccount4354]

I think housing needs are a cash cow for banks🎉😂❤

[@BigMobe]

Thank COVID-19 for its continued contribution.

[@kaneworthington]

It's simple what will happen. Mass defaults on mortgages by 2025, over supply and under demand due to sustained high and ever increasing interest rates. Rates go up whilst prices come down, this opens to door for the hedgefunds like Blackrock to continue buying up private retail. Remember, the goal is you own nothing by 2030. They will milk the rental market, before legislation comes in 2025-2030 to then crack down on rental rates, artificially supressing them to then appease the public with a perceived 'win' now that they cannot buy homes anymore. Meanwhile, private landlords are now screwed over and have to sell up. Prices then continue to rise for private home owners, whilst interest rates rise on all lending, but rental prices come down as the market switches to majority renters due to hedgefunds. So the only 'out' for homeowners by 2030+ is to sell for a record high, but it will also be very difficult to then buy back in with high prices and interest rates. The only viable option is to then rent, but have money in the bank to invest elsewhere to afford to buy back in.

[@williammorris3334]

No, the US isn’t one housing market. It’s hundreds. It all depends on where you live. Where I live housing is still fairly reasonable and and prices are stable for two years now. GET OUT of the big cities people! Life is soooo much better in a rural county. Imagine no gangs, no cartel, no Anitfa, no traffic, no looting or riots. Three dollar gas and four dollar dozen eggs. Homes for sale in nice neighborhoods for less than 300k

[@MrJimbo1212]

you have been talking about a housing crash for 3 years..... this is getting old,,,, I'm unsubscribing

[@matthew8505]

Bruh, he just stopped talking about it

[@Josh-hz8vz]

In this very video he’s basically admitting he was wrong though..

[@leighann8457]

This guy flip flops all over the place. I take everything he says with a grain of salt.

[@bluesagebrett]

Trump 2024

[@user-fv5ms4sz8e]

It's called ACCELERATION.

[@MarcusAurelius7777]

Haha this is great news if you already own property outright is the US!