The War in Ukraine: Why 2024 Will Be Decisive

[@AdamSomething]

My comments about the US military coup against a Trump presidency were only half-joking. I recommend everyone to read up on Republicans' "Project 2025". That document, outlining what they'll do after they win, contains gems such as ending the separation of church and state, ending the DOJ's independence, expanding presidential powers, adopting Christian nationalism, and basically dismantling the bureaucratic state. It's a terrifying document if one realizes what they're actually reading. The US military is not MAGA-friendly. In fact, MAGA folks criticize it for being "too woke" more and more. If the MAGA group indeed tries to demolish the US political system in its current form, to replace it with a far-right, Christian nationalist autocracy, I predict the US military would intervene. This is IF Trump gets elected, and IF he manages to do what the Republican party say they want to do. I get that such things are hard to imagine for many Americans. An active war for territorial conquest in Europe was just as hard to imagine for Europeans before February 2022.

[@OkayGrimmy]

​@@TurtleChad1 me when I'm delusional and brainwashed

[@DISASTERJOE]

All of that sounds much better than what is happening right now.

[@mrsupremegascon]

So we trust campaign promises now ? Seriously Adam, it's 2024, maybe it's time to stop with this "far right is a threat to democracy" thing. Every modern far right politicians that got elected end up following a rather regular presidency or term. That was true for Trump in 2016, like Salvini and Meloni in Italy, like PiS in Poland, etc... Worst you can accuse them is to make weird statements, some fucked up decisions, being corrupted and aligned the public media on their narrative. So doing exactly what all other "honest" politicians does. Only difference, is that "honest" politicians have enough friends in the elite, to do it quietly, something that a populist politician can't do. Even the 6th of January was not that big of thing that you would like to think. In the end Trump accepted his defeat and the guys in the Capitol left the building without much fuss after an afternoon of illegal tourism (not different from other 'occupy capitol' actions made by leftist groups).

[@ausiidnd]

Project 2025 is a set of policy proposals created by a conservative think-tank and not an actual political threat from Republicans. I understand wanting to grow support against Trump but it is clearly not "what the Republican party wants to do" but rather, "what a set of Trump loyalists are selling to their voterbase". Making grandiose promises about removing the separation of church and state to appeal to Christian nationalists has been par for the course in subsections of conservative politics for over a century, if not longer. This is nothing new nor is it an actual political threat worth this much fearmongering

[@bronzebackbassing18]

@@DISASTERJOEending separation of church and state sounds good? The 1st amendment exists for a reason.

[@skynoble9125]

If it makes you feel better, Congress did pass a bill a few months ago that essentially made it impossible for the US president to single handedly draw the US out of NATO

[@allliquid6320]

I wonder how easy that can be over turned.

[@skynet3542]

Congerss can change it in the future. But why would seriously Trump make US exit NATO? He wouldn't do it, it makes no sense. It must be a gossip to disencourage voters to vote on Trump

[@allliquid6320]

@skynet3542 he said he wanted to do it when he was in power. Like the pulling out of the afgan War. He literally wanted to pull out of everything. " Not really, but it seemed like it" weird isolationist rhetoric. If you want to cut it all, America will become like North Korea. Tho if trump supports ucrain, I'll be happy. If not, then he shouldn't be president. I'm no American, but it's obvious that ucrain is the defining war of this decade, maybe even of this century

[@Joe-ij6of]

That's good, but GOP majorities could reverse that. I think majorities + Trump in 2024 is very unlikely, but it's a (remote) possibility. In that scenario the maga wing could refuse to vote for border "security" in 2025 unless they reverse the nato provision... that plus arm-bending by trump and rubio & co. will just fold like a cheap suit. Still, very unlikely to be sure.

[@personzorz]

Because he is an ally to the far right wherever they may be ​@@skynet3542

[@medeology4660]

"Israel can level the Gaza strip with the most modern american weapons, while Ukraine, defending itself against an imperialist invasion, gets only 30 year old leftovers slated for decommissioning. " Yes, this infuriates me too.

[@BruhmomentMomentovik]

I disagree with this. While obviously not enough aid was sent, people are seriously downplaying how much aid and assistance Ukraine got, we are talking about ~100 of planes when the F-16s get delivered, ~900 tanks, almost a thousand IFVs, thousands of MRAPs, APCs, IMVs, over a thousand pieces of artillery (self-propelled and towed), a number of radars, SAM systems, ammunition, medical supplies, spare parts, training, intelligence and a whole lot of other things. While granted, there were instances where delivered equipment wasn’t in good condition, calling it all leftovers slated for decommission isn’t really true in my opinion. I also think that people generally don’t appreciate how difficult sending Western equipment like tanks to Ukraine is and that it isn’t just a matter of pressing a button. Getting them over to Ukraine is only one part of the problem, Ukrainian tank crews, service personnel, maintenance personnel also need to be trained and equipped, spare parts, ammunition and fuel have to be allocated and sent, all the while having to strike a fine balance between how much can be sent and how much to send in order not to break down Ukrainian logistics as their arsenal is now filled with all kinds of Western, Soviet and post-Soviet equipment.

[@aaronhernandez2782]

That lets you see the true colors of America and the West. They don't really care for democracy and justice, they only see for their economic and imperialist interests

[@AlbatrossCommando]

Israel pays for its missiles. Ukraine gets them as aid.

[@talkowalski6930]

If you take what Israel got recently from the US and times it by 10 it’s maybe half of what Ukraine got; and don’t forget the EU spent similar amounts of funds towards helping Ukraine too. To station troops in Asia and Europe also cost easily over 10 times what Israel gets annually. The notion that Israel is costing the US its financial future is nonsensical. If any, Israel has been a very successful commercial for the American military industry for decades now, which generated trillions of dollars. Finally, when Israel clashed with the Russian Air Force a few decades ago, it also had to do it alone and with outdated technology. It sucked then, it sucked now, I also hope Ukraine will come out victorious, but saying Israel is getting a preferential treatment here compared to Ukraine is simply wrong.

[@lowgpu1687]

"imperialist invasion", need I remind you that the US was an absolute professional with invading at one point?

[@iamnamelessnfaceless]

The rule based world order that you are talking about has already been broken several times in the past in favour of the makers of those rules.

[@pettycrimesandmisdemeanors]

It's all fine and dandy but the idea of US military staging a coup in case Trump wins seems a tiny bit far-fetched

[@jonaspete]

First in the US history

[@daffyduck780]

The military would only intervene to protect the constitution and then only if all other agencies fail.

[@jointhefist1016]

It is. But it also could be a possibility, having an erratic leader

[@PharadayCage]

Agreed. Consider Tuberville’s unending obstruction of Biden military appointees. I don’t think the sole reason for it is him just being an annoying cuss. I think he’s maintaining the power structure that owes most power to Trump, so there is less chance of a counter-coup when Trump tries to assume power.

[@ruiutomy1]

This guy has no clue about what he says in this video. He is another fake blogger.

[@pikachu7748]

The scale and casualties of this war are terrifying. I really feel bad for all these young men having to die and suffer there for no fault of their own.

[@DanielChizh]

Yep, we most likely gonna die. Thats life, I guess.

[@leonake4194]

Its actually mostly 40 year olds, you can look It Up. This Is the war with The oldest soldiers ever; demographics in eastern Europe are fucked. We are probably wittnessing the last wars in the region

[@OCTO358]

@@leonake4194 "We are probably wittnessing the last wars in the region" not if the US tries to meddle again.

[@k-tech2937]

@@OCTO358 you misspelled "Russia"

[@alexanderbreems2921]

Adam, you are well versed in city infrastructure matters, but your war coverage has been completely subjective. You confidently stated that things would end swiftly in Ukraine’s favor a year ago. That obviously has been far from the truth.

[@c.m.9369]

It‘s actually interesting to see how we went from „if Russia invaded, Ukraine will have no chance to fight back“ before the war to „Ukraine is losing because they can‘t throw Russia out of their country!“ The fact that we‘re disappointed by Ukraine not doing „better“ is mostly because we have forgotten how this war was originally SUPPOSED to go.

[@Buffalo93]

That doesn't really matter, as it not the contest on who does better. If Russia eventually wins, it doesn't change much that it didn't took just three days as initially plans and costed orders of magnitude more. Unfortunately, only the end result matter and not how it compares to any previous expectations.

[@lowgpu1687]

Who ever said three days? I definitely didn't see the Russians say that, it was the West who assumed 3 days, but apparently they can't even stay consistent with that, because I heard others say one week.@@Buffalo93

[@FelixDaleth]

@@Buffalo93 The difference is huge. In one scenario you have an exhausted Russia lording over depopulated smoldering rubble. In the other - Russia steamrolling westward while gobbling up Ukrainian industrial and human resources more or less intact. You could argue that technically Finland lost the winter war, yet 80 years later Finnish resistance clearly led to its civilizational victory.

[@the2theonly672]

@@Buffalo93if Russia wins by expending most of its working class men, they have destroyed their own economy for ever. They do not have the abled body population to come back from this, whether they win or not

[@YujiroHanmaaaa]

@@lowgpu1687 Stop repeating this " It WaS tHe WeSt " propaganda. The Russian POW's in the first war week themselves said that they thought this war aka "operation" would end 3 days or a week, they even had to bring their parade uniforms.

[@xeranthemumannettae]

Ukrainian here. The part about "Zelensky vs Zaluzhny" is a slightly exaggerated issue. There was a point when we all here suspected that this info about their conflict was a psyop. Even if there are some misunderstandings between military and civilian governments the goals are still clear for both and they communicate all the time.

[@sillysad3198]

by this point i am 100% certain Ze is working for russians. and the mil high command is simply numb, bogged down, pacified, insensitive to such matters as patriotism and honour.

[@ryuiyugo8845]

@@sillysad3198 You are 146% right. So, Russian should donate to Ze fund "United24" and make this stupid war end faster.

[@mormatus]

true, was just going to say the same - that's exaggerated out of nothing, or at least nothing substantial. Just copium and hopium from ru propagandons.

[@pantalaemon]

Homie are you okay

[@SkywalkerWroc]

"slightly" is doing some heavy lifting here.

[@Freshline_]

will age as well as your last year prediction

[@tdb7992]

Perun has been a blessing to KZbin. He really raised the bar and destroyed huge amounts of misinformation and terrible journalism.

[@SkywalkerWroc]

True. But then we have Adam saying that US military will coup Trump, lmao. As much as I dislike Trump and think that him winning the presidency would be the biggest disaster for the US since the Great Recession (USA would basically secede from the position of the global superpower), there's *zero* chance of a military coup. Adam in this point is joining the "disinformation and terrible journalism" crowd.

[@tizi087]

He is basically the Nigel Askey of KZbin. Destroying stuff left and right with solid hard data.

[@OperationDarkside]

He's using power point to make a power point.

[@thunderspark1536]

​@@OperationDarksideVery good PowerPoints too

[@ulogy]

Gosh it's like watching paint dry sometimes, but he's great at giving the facts.

[@tobiwan001]

The EU artillery shell production for 2024 is 1.25m shells and for the US 1.2m shells. The problem is that in Europe those are mostly private companies that have to honor their previous contracts and therefore delivered hundreds of thousands of shells to other countries too. Allegedly half a million were sent to Ukraine by the EU.

[@tim19962]

This war has shown we need to dubble production

[@Max-ki6df]

This is confusing 2024 has just started, are you from the future? If EU manages to reach 1.25m shells that's awesome, and most of them will go to ukraine right

[@Loj84]

⁠@@Max-ki6df you don’t have to be from the future to look at yearly estimates.

[@SignificantNumberOfBeavers]

The casual preduction of American military coup is really rattling the comments section 😂

[@ienlevin516]

Comment from Kyiv: 1. The part about Zaluzhny vs Zelensky is a mystery, no one thinks there is such a conflict, but russian media is trying to convince everyone in it. 2. Technological superiority of Ukraine is super small. If we have real superiority we won”t stuck like we did. 3. There are no discussions about “land for peace” in society. But what we discuss a lot is corruption and where our gov-nt spends budget money.

[@Max-ki6df]

Doesn't Ukraine have an army of drones, Nato Satelite and air reconnaissance, and a fing AI to process and evaluate data collected by said reconnaissance? I mean not shitting on the ukraine military, but you did receive some of the newest equipment out there. Which is why Ukraine to russian loss ratio is like 1 to 6

[@stashorodnyansky1258]

Another comment from Ukraine: the russians having worse equipment is essentially outdated information. There are more and more reports from our military that they are pretty well equipped for the most part, much, much better than in previous phases of war. They now have more drones, their drones are becoming technologically better and better, and it is not just a matter of drones. Maybe some specific top brigades in Ukraine have great equipment, but on average we are not that far off from the rus now. So...such things as f16, that provide significant performance improvement, are a matter of life and death for us now essentially.

[@augustuslunasol10thapostle]

@@Max-ki6df actually their talking about their actual equipment f-16 are basically life or death for ukraine as they give massive technological and fire power boost against russia.

[@bogdanignatovych3042]

Also, comments from a Ukrainian: there are proposals to give land for piece, but those initiatives are cut down as soon as they rise by Zelenskiy and his men. Morale is very low, we see draconic mobilization laws, which the gov wants to approve (the latest mobilization law includes a punishment for failure to react to a mobilization notice: your bank accounts getting forcefully closed and you become a criminal, who will be searched by a police) and we understand that things in the army are very bad. There is a belief (a valid one though) that as soon as you are mobilized, you are given a 3 weeks training and are sent to the meat grinder as an infantryman. We see that recently mobilized men aren't given any role other than the infantrymen because roles that have less mortality rate are already taken. Those infantrymen are then forced to charge some worthless ditches in the middle of mowhere without any armored or air support all in order to capture 2 kilometers of frontline and possibly some no name village which doesn't even have a population anymore, because everyone has already left it. Soldiers in the Ukrainian army are essentially slaves. Everyone who applied for the army two years ago never signed up for an indefinite meat grinder from which you can only return either dead or injured. My friend lost a leg in the war - he is finally free and can now leave the country, but he had to pay with his health for this. All this together with western support dwindling and with our gov officials saying that "we" (it doesn't mean them obviously) will fight with shovels if needed and we will fight to the last Ukrainian but not give any territory, makes us realize that situation is indeed desperate. Additionally, our government didn't even become to build our own military complex, instead relying on the arms given by the western countries, and now, when the West decides to cut the arms given to us, the gov tells us we will have to fight with shovels if needed. All in all, these 2 years of war made me from being a really patriotic man who decided that he will stay and fight for his country, even when I had a chance to leave the country and even applied into the territorial defence force (luckily my application was rejected, otherwise I would have became a slave) into a man who lost all hope in Ukraine as a state and just wants not to have to deal with it anymore. I now believe that both russians and the Ukrainian gov want to kill me, and at this point I just want to leave this country for Spain or some Latin American country (I have been studying Spanish since the war started to improve my prospects of immigration and now have steady B1, almost B2 level) where it is always sunny and I can finally live in peace.

[@vyvianalcott1681]

Is Zelensky doing anything about the corruption or is he too busy managing the war? I hope this nightmare ends soon for all of you.

[@trsclips3037]

It sounds like Adam is in the bargaining stage of the seven stages of grief.

[@dukenukem8381]

Solutions has to be Trains and affordable housing.

[@sillysad3198]

housing is not a desease, it is a SYMPTOM

[@allthis701]

trains are gay

[@allthis701]

and so is affordable housing

[@allthis701]

and so is vladimir putin

[@sillysad3198]

@@allthis701 it is less obvious with pootin but definitely he was grown by dems.

[@czarkowskipawelyt]

Remember when every other week was supposed to be "decisive" back in 2022? Those were the days...

[@GabrielPettier]

Well, they kind of were.

[@LS-Moto]

Adam was among those people. I tried to remind people that Russia isn't as weak as people make them to be. Tanks weren't really the solution, because they are pretty easy to take out nowadays with missiles. This is why Zelensky keeps pressing on getting airplanes/fighter jets. The announced counter offensive failed, and destroyed a lot of the equipment Ukraine was provided from the west, so now both sides are just standing their ground. Unless Ukraine geta fighter jets or a big revolt happens in Russia, not much will change this year. Nothing will be decisive.

[@TheKolian1996]

Hello. I am from Ukraine, Kyiv. As some other people said already, conclusions are somewhat incorrect. In my circles, there is no one who would like to take russian "peace" agreement right now, and it was the same year ago. Yeah, mass mobilisation exists and unpleasant, but it's nowhere near to panic or tragedy. Year ago in winter, there were a lot of bombardments, now its much more silent thanks to Patriot, Nasams, Iris-T. It's less stressful than before, not vice versa. People are NOT giving up.

[@janark4078]

Have you volunteered for the front yet?

[@annnee6818]

Well an increase from 10% to 20% isn't high and won't be felt in every social bubble. Doesn't mean those people don't exist. Some people are russian after all...

[@Africanhorror]

dead man talking get ready to be mobilized

[@ggoddkkiller1342]

How many casualties Ukraine had during summer offensive? It must be at least 50,000 if not over 100,000. You can not win a war by staying defensive, it will never ever happen and even if russkies run out of some platforms and systems they will just scale down their offensive operations. It was over as soon as they began digging tenches and unless there is something really important like regime change in russia there is no way Ukraine can win this war..

[@Law0fRevenge]

@@ggoddkkiller1342 You might wanna check actual sources instead of just dishing out large numbers that you "feel" are correct

[@Kholdstare52]

My man, you cannot just casually drop a military coup in the United States like... what the fuck?!

[@texanplayer7651]

I think he meant an impeachment

[@GBart]

I think he meant Project 2025 + a repeat of Jan 6th but bigger

[@slapper360]

@@GBartthe fuck is project 2025

[@slapper360]

@@texanplayer7651that is more believable than military coup

[@GBart]

​​@@slapper360MAGA Nazis have supposedly been trying to infiltrate government/security jobs to facilitate a potential coup

[@setlerking]

While the military isn’t super loving of trump a ‘coup’ is highly unlikely. That’s a pretty bad take. Otherwise great video

[@Surukai]

It is TDS big time, but the rest of the vid is still good.

[@sillysad3198]

the military is probably the most anti-rus of all other institutions, russians and dems made a lot of enemies among the mils

[@ecognitio9605]

Terrible video actually

[@personzorz]

The man actually tried to do a coup in 2021. You lack imagination.

[@sillysad3198]

@@ecognitio9605 but 85 rubles are never terrible, Ivan!

[@lordsword4121]

As a russian I can say that the "Political layout" in Russia slide is utterly wrong. Russia is not "more stable than ever" 83% approval rating is questionable, not even all official government sources say that high, but Levada is very biased and social surveys are unreliable in general in modern Russia, because many independant organisations that measure approval rating are abolished and you can get in prison for saying that you are against the war and even saying that what is currently happening is, in fact, war. For example phone survey from ACF showed that 65% of people would support the decision to end the war and to withdraw all the troops from Ukraine, meanwhile only 18 said that they wouldn't support that decision Also "enough volunteers" is a stretch considering that the first mobilization wave hasn't even officialy ended and considering how many people are being taken to war from prison "Stable economy" is also wrong, just recently there was, for example, a MASSIVE soar in egg prices and saying that economy is fine is just false

[@Makimars]

Stable economy more as in stable war production and less as prosperity for the people.

[@olgatrotsenko2153]

Can you please give a link on ACF survey results cause all I've found was recent University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Centre's poll that showed that 63% of russians support the war in Ukraine

[@blablup1214]

I think you have to take the word stable with a grain of salt. Stable in the way that they probably could go on for another 2-3 years without self destruction. They still have enough cash. They still have enough weapons. They still have enough food. They still have enough people. also don't believe that the opinion of the public is that important. It is not like Putin will lose the election or the population will start a rebellion. Many people are used to live in poverty. I could even see them not doing anything even if they would force another million to fight....

[@prplt]

also many relatives of the people who were mobilized in autumn 2022 are getting very mad because they are still on the front line with no rotation and they're not allowed to return 😂

[@GabrielPettier]

I like the "1420" youtube channel to get a more nuanced view of the opinions in russia, but it's still hard to gauge, many people express strong pro-putin opinion (and not just old people, young ones as well) and *also* many either completely disengaged from politics (seeing no possibility of an alternative, or just not caring), or opposed to putin, not understanding why things are still holding together, but apparently they do. I still get the impression that despite many people being against the current order, that order is really strong and people are absolutely not ready to revolt. I'm surprised by your number of people supporting a withdrawal, i got the impression this wouldn't be considered acceptable by much more people.

[@andrewrogers3067]

Even if Ukraine does have to lose some territory it is unacceptable that they accept anything less than NATO membership. Ukraine can’t stop until they accept this.

[@RokeJulianLockhart.s13ouq]

They mustn't accept either, but if they must, I agree.

[@toptiergaming6900]

That's what I'm expecting as the peace outcome, Russia gains some of Ukrane's eastern provenance and part of their coast and un exchange Ukrane gets to join NATO

[@jointhefist1016]

But part of the reason Russia is attacking, is because they don't want them to join NATO

[@ehannasir8464]

​@@toptiergaming6900 i think them joining nato is going to be hard especially as some of their territory is occupied, if they would like to join they have to no longer say those are their lands which is very difficult for them to probably do

[@davidty2006]

Only territory ukraine is willing to give is belgorod.

[@42sraf]

Couple things to add as a Ukrainian: People are getting tired of the war. That took longer than expected but same as support from people in the west. People are willing to sacrifice land to live peacefully. Compare it to beginning when people didn’t want any negotiations with Russia. More strict mobilisation laws made the war waaaay less popular. Ukraine is low on volunteers, and a lot of people don’t really want to go and fight even in defensive war. Also there was almost a law passed about sanctioning Ukrainian men who are abroad who don’t want to return basically. As expected all Ukrainians abroad (couple millions I think) got pretty pissed and their support for the war dropped. Also tik tok trolls play a huge role, there is ENORMOUS amount of big or small bloggers “ukranian” pushing narrative how corrupted government is and hating on Zelenskyy and army All that was expected if the war goes for 2 years obviously. I don’t think that it’s possible for any more or less democratic government to keep morale high after 2 years of war. I still remain hopeful though

[@42sraf]

I commented before watching the video and ht basically said all that. Still think that might as well leave the comment to validate points in video

[@charlesgrimmer6486]

Lol. I wish I could take for granted our military's dedication to democracy as much as you with the casual coup statements.

[@emperornortoni2871]

Oh good, a new Perun video! Wait a second...

[@suigintouivanhoe1167]

Levada poll (and others like it) has an interesting specific - more than 90% of respondents don't want to answer, some due to fear of persecution for "wrong answers". This 50/50 support numbers are for less than 10% of the whole respondents. Ekaterina Shulman, russian political scientist is talking often about it in interviews for western media, you can find it.

[@sillysad3198]

levada is still working for kremlin, which creates more interpretations of the fact of publishing these numbers

[@streamofthesky]

Nearly anyone refusing to answer the poll is an "against" vote that's smart enough to keep their mouth shut. Any western reporting of the polls should show the total percentages: For, Against, and "please don't ask me". Put it in a pie chart and see the true "support level" among Russians.

[@imightbebiased9311]

@@streamofthesky More like "For, Against, and I'm Just Following Orders".

[@Uberpanik]

​@@imightbebiased9311never lived under authoritarian regime, do you? Good for you

[@teimy42]

Good point, also much better source is Russian Field, which manages to be somewhat independent

[@Ganjor420]

I never understood this argument against "long range weapons that can reach propper Russian territory". Have those people looked at a map? There is still a direct border in northern ukrain, EVERY weapon can reach Russia lol

[@mishynaofficial]

How dare you break a US sloppy propaganda? 😡😡😡 Do you want a WW3 or something??? 😭😭😭😡😡😡

[@dsaikon]

I think it's more about reaching key strategic points in Russia. While yes, they share a border, which would make hitting Russian Territory not a complicated task, you might be underestimating the size of Russia. Most of the Land is rural, barely inhabited and simply not a valid target unless you want to waste ammo. Hitting Moscow for example would be near impossible though, simply because of the countries expanse. There's not any point for Ukraine to waste Artillery Shells on uninhabited land, when they have to fight of a Ground Invasion within their own borders. The only reason they could seek to strike within Russia is to hit Logistics Centers aswell as Infrastructure. Though as i said, the vast size of Russia makes hitting infrastructure like streets pretty much pointless, unless we're talking about important bridges here. Thats why you have to make the distinction between "russian land" and "proper russian land". They might share a border, but the next big town is hundreds of kilometres away

[@Ganjor420]

@@dsaikon Yes, that was a legitimate point early on in the conflict. But at this point Ukraine has hit Moskau as well as major Military bases in Russia with drones already. Multiple times. So while I might have agreed with you in summer 2022, now that Ukraine is already able to hit those targets if they really wanted to I don't see the point in holding back.

[@dsaikon]

@@Ganjor420 The Question is, whether they are holding back, or actively trying but only succeeding in small quantities. We simply lack the intel to tell for sure because we don't know their military strategy. But since they have hit them before, I don't believe they are holding back on hitting them. It could just be a very complicated task that has a lower success rate than say for example hitting targets at the home front. At this point it would be more of a logistical or tactical question than perhaps a question of capability. We shouldn't underestimate Russias Anti-Air Defenses either, especially around Key Strategic Points

[@СоюзниксОкинавы]

@@Ganjor420 There is difference between hitting it with drones that barely damaging anything and with something like ATACMS.

[@SimonMester]

What a lot of leaders didnt understand, is that regardless of what society you live in, democratic or not, conscriptions will not be popular. You cant, as easily whip people into a war fervor anymore. Nobody wants to die for old men fighting overa strip of land. We have more educated populus now, wiht a lot more to take their attention, fill their free time and enjoy life. Even in the most far right areas of thw world.

[@xfom4008]

Because it no longer makes any fucking sense. Warfare is extremely,stupidly, absurdly expensive and rewards a state with cities and infrastructure destroyed to rubble and massive amounts of starving conquered people YOU have to feed. War only serves one purpose - moving money from the hands of the budget to military officials and government contractors. It's an unprofitable and brutal activity that facilitates theft, nothing more.

[@undefined6341]

A military coup in the US is super unlikely. If Trump wins, the USA will be more isolationist, which likely will garner a lot of support from the military, because contrary to popular beliefs on fringes of the internet, most people do not enjoy going to dumb meaningless wars, not even in America. Just ask veterans about how they feel regards Iraq or Afghanistan.

[@schadenfreude000]

Actually, that's true. Trump polled well with the military and veterans because of his promise to get out of foreign wars. He was the only president since Jimmy Carter years who didn't get involed in a new war.

[@CarlosKTCosta]

I simply love how humans everywhere are all the same “please send people to die for our cause but not me”

[@elwendigo2]

Adam: it's a myth that time is in Russia's favor Also Adam: a frozen conflict is the second worst scenario that I can imagine for Ukraine

[@Jun-o3l6t]

Yeah he's just saying shit at this point, thinking back to his other Ukraine videos they're actually quite laughable at times Especially all the hype about the big summer offensive

[@LS-Moto]

@@Jun-o3l6t He knows things about society and social concepts, but that does not make one a war expert. A lot of things he predicted have not worked. He insists on tanks, when airplanes and missiles are what makes progress in war. Tanks are easy to take out with missiles. Ukraine lost quite a few of them because of missiles.

[@skah5651]

@@LS-Moto There are also corruption in Ukraine. Im convinced that most of support sent to Ukraine is just soled to fuel expensive houses in some fancy places.

[@LS-Moto]

@@skah5651 Of course, there definitely is corruption in Ukraine, even cases where it has been exposed. But what also needs to be mentioned, is that Ukraine and Zelensky are indeed working on fighting corruption in the country. Ukraines goal is to become an EU member. So in oder to be considered, they need to get a few things accomplished in their country, one of which is get rid of corruption. This however, is not a battle that is done within a week or a month, but years. So we have to give ukraine time in that regard and observe, how they develop in that area. Ukraine and Ukrainians are very motivated to bring their country into the EU, so I don't think they will existing corruption kindly.

[@lurmpfh0ne]

Time is not in Russia's favour, he is correct. Eventually their own bandage aid to their own economy is going to implode, people are going to get sick of the war, and they will run out of shit. The whole point of this video was to demonstrate how recently the Russian economy and society is 1. More stable than previously thought and 2. Aid is falling to Ukraine. These two factors would undeniably contribute to a Russian advantage in a frozen conflict, as Ukraine's economy is mobilising but is still highly reliant on US and EU aid. It IS a myth that time is in Russia's favour. They can't keep fighting forever. But neither can Ukraine, and even less so than Russia, which is why it's concerning.

[@p.strobus7569]

Getting a new lada as recompense for the death of a soldier is even worse than one might think. By summer of 2023 roughly 70% of Ladas delivered to dealers required additional repair because of incomplete construction.

[@imightbebiased9311]

So they're like the car that Michael Keaton tries to drive out of the factory at the end of Gung Ho?

[@tunemaki_izlasitrlv6835]

Don't worry. LADA will probably offer a bottle of vodka as compensation for delivery issues.

[@bmw_fantopdrives5501]

New Ladas also dont habe Abs etc? Because thats from BOSCH, No?

[@TherealRTZ973]

"It will be over by Christmas" "2024 Will Be Decisive" Perhaps you can't predict the future and we all know like 3% of what is actually happening behind the scenes.

[@JackFroster]

You are smoking something mighty strong to come out with that US coup idea

[@nandocastiglione9742]

Blue-Pilled Orange Man Bad mentality

[@BadJellyman100]

It's a harsh dose of reality. Something MAGAts don't usually like.

[@catswork]

jan 6th be like

[@The_Poro_King]

Project 2025

[@JoaoSantos-ur1gg]

You realize you wrote that comment after January 6th 2021, right?

[@Win32error854]

Gotta say i'm weirded out by a few points. The rules-based order is kind of an iffy thing to talk about, if it exists it's mostly enjoyed specifically by those countries at the top of the totem pole. But bigger is your seemingly guaranteed assertion that a trump victory leading into autocratic actions would definitely result in a military coup. Citation needed imo.

[@friedwaldderlebendige8494]

wait what? where di he suggest that trump victory would lead to a military coup?

[@SamMorseBrown]

Agreed

[@zanthar1873]

@@friedwaldderlebendige84944:55 my friend he also mentioned it later.

[@Win32error854]

@@friedwaldderlebendige8494 4:50

[@joshuanishanthchristian5217]

Same here. Obviously, most people who watch this channel quite dislike Trump, and that includes me, but I cannot imagine him pulling the US out of NATO or going so extreme that the US Military sees the need to topple him. His election could still be quite problematic for Ukraine though, although I can't imagine it'd be as singly dramatic as the way described.

[@dmitryyurin3916]

So, there is a statement that according to Vladimir Putin russian personal losses are: 315-360K... Is there a link to prove that?;-) I'm pretty sure that not)

[@TervelBG]

To anyone who sees this comment - check all his past videos about the Ukrainian war and you'll see that every prediction he has done ended up false. Thats all you need to know about the validity of this channel...

[@Edu_Selva]

I wish there were a "rules-based" world order. In reality the more a country aligns with the US, the more flexible are those rules for them. And if it's the US, they just do whatever they want, whenever they feel like. I guess rules-based doesn't apply to all latin American countries that had a coup staged and supported by the USA. To still believe in an "International rules-based" order is naive beyond words....

[@Mastakilla91]

"but also the international rules-based world orderbut also the international rules-based world order" Oh really Adam? You mean like when NATO bombed and invaded Serbia and helped Kosovo declare independence ?

[@officernealy]

I wonder what Serbia did in Bosnia & what they planned on doing in Kosovo to warrant the world's wrath so much to the point that they green-lit NATO to bomb them?

[@tubsymcghee7169]

" If a country can start a war of territorial conquest and get away with it that would mean others could get away with it aswell." My man, the USA and it's friends have been getting away with that for a very long time indeed.

[@helmaschine1885]

Like Israel? The world is dark.

[@AirKIng74]

I think it's safe to say a US military coup would fuck things up for more than just the US and Ukraine.

[@pardox2783]

When i watch your viedeos and you recommend supporting politicians who care for this issues. I sometimes wish i live in a more geopolitical "important" contry. Being from Uruguay there is little one can do. But at least its peaceful in here.

[@an_kol]

thank you, Adam, for your support❤️

[@iamtondro3747]

The rules based world order surviving? Haha! Nope! You're on Mr. Bone's Wild Ride.

[@XOPOIIIO]

The positional warfare is hard to win is because defending side always have advantage. So you either keep your ground or you're losing, that's why frontline is so hard to move.

[@HELLF1RE9]

The worst case scenarios are very painful to think about. As an estonian, Ukraine is fighting russia for the same noble cause of peace and freedom. A combat defeat is one thing, but western powers being overrun by isolationists and abandoning a friend and a nation to their own enemy is beyond imaginable. Glory to Ukraine! 🇺🇦❤️🇪🇪

[@xitrou]

It's more democracy and freedom in Russia, rather than in your nazis countries.

[@tunemaki_izlasitrlv6835]

The worst-case scenario is simple. If Ukraine loses we both are probably dead. Everybody knows if Russia wins it will never stop at Ukraine and we are next on the list. But unlike Ukraine which can fight war, the reality is that in our countries we simply have absolutely nothing to stop an invasion. I live in Latvia and we are currently in terrible shape. Almost nothing has been done since the invasion. We can't even build a fence on the border for 3 years. As you probably know about 30-40% of our citizens are Russians, and less than half of them can't even remotely understand the Latvian language after living here for 30 years. If a war comes to us you can imagine which side will many of our Russian citizens be on. And to be honest our economy is not that much better than security. Third lowest wages in the EU, while having more expensive food and clothes than in most West EU countries. Infrastructure is crumbling away. Our Education system is a total disaster. Not only does it work badly but also it is split in half. Latvian schools where subjects are taught in Latvian and Russian schools where every single subject is taught only in the Russian language 30 years after the fall of the USSR! This is why our population is split in half and the West doesn't even want us to get rid of that system because we have to offer Russians the opportunity to teach the Russian language. Less than 1 million people still speak Latvian meanwhile Russian is spoken by hundreds of millions. If they want to be educated in Russian then go do it somewhere else! Sorry, I went on a bit of a rant here. We have so many issues in our country, but honestly, since the invasion, we are trying to fix all those issues, which honestly should have been solved a lot sooner. It would be a shame if Russia would put a stop to all of this. Finally, we have our own country and even if it is in bad shape this is the only place where we Latvians at least can speak our language.

[@luigimrlgaming9484]

Abandoning? At this point they would be helping. Maybe they finally realized that Zelensky has been fooling them for all this time and he literally cannot win this war. A nation is made up of its people, and if it has no people left, then that’s not winning.

[@1k-RebelProductions]

Talking about rulebased world order and naming the Israel/palestine "war" had make me laugh out loud not gonna lie

[@screamskilos3951]

it's such a weird thing, Adam seems to be ambiguous about the "war", i feel like he supports the IDF or at least doesn't condemn them which is inconsistent with his views on Ukraine.

[@1k-RebelProductions]

@@screamskilos3951 Iam not even sure if he is pro israeli, his comment in the video suggests otherwise, I think. I just feel like he got pushed into the narrative of the "good US/Nato" holding the world together point of view maybe a little to much. Calling the world "rulebased" while the Israel Palestine war/slaughter, the ongoing genocide in myanmar, or the nato member turkeys brutal suppression/war against the kurds, or constand happy friendship deals and alliances with slavestates like Saudi Arabia, together with massive arms deals, is just absurd as a whole. Nato may be the lesser evil compared to autocratic capitalist russia. but its still a very big f***** evil.

[@beijing_duck6861]

The fact that in The UK there is pretty universal support of Ukraine from most classes and political groups makes me proud to be British 🇬🇧❤🇺🇦

[@mormatus]

❤👍

[@malcolm4737]

Based Brits at it again.

[@someguy3766]

Yeah somehow even with our pretty toxic domestic politics, Ukraine has not become a divisive issue between left and right here. Most see it as between right and wrong, and believe that Ukraine needs to be supported in its fight for freedom. Britain is never going to abandon Ukraine!

[@tiborklein5349]

rare Britbong W

[@SkywalkerWroc]

Yep. It's crazy just how much more geopoliticially-aware the British politics proved to be, as opposite to the debacle in the American right-wing (or rather: alt-right). Really goes to show that British weren't the largest empire in history by accident.

[@TV-8-301]

I really appreciate your analysis. I'm glad your reporting is level-headed and not trying to be alarmist or oversimplified

[@Nikkikoo99]

Man thx for making videos about the war in Ukraine , many people switched to something else like Israel , Yemen etc , it's important to not forget about whats happening there and how significant elections in the US can be

[@bigclimax8443]

“Rules based world order” my guy do you see what’s happening in Gaza? There is no rules based world order, but i guess that doesn’t matter when the perpetrator is a ally of the west.

[@rodrigox.8037]

talk about a military coup in the US is a loooooooong stretch of reality

[@manghariz2211]

Usually I find your videos to be good This one is still great as a general overview. But I dont understand about the US Milirary coup thing. Can you elaborate?

[@evansnyamesah1755]

Cos US democracy is being threatened by some who thinks saying you will be a Dictator for a day is a good idea. So now we have a democracy vs Authoritarian across the world and USA is the helm of democracy so it can't lose that so this year will be a 🔥

[@Julez60]

He pulled from his ass, it's ridiculous.

[@personzorz]

One of the men who is in the running for President of the United States tried to do an authoritarian coup against the elected government in 2021. He is going to try again. Once that happens, a lot of things are possible that you didn't used to think are possible

[@salce_with_onion]

@@Julez60 Just like your 100 rubles, Ivan

[@Troonielicious]

He doesn’t know what he’s talking about 😂

[@peolin]

Oh my god.. The first picture.. This is the fire next to my apartment building on 2nd of January 2024. We woke up at 4 am from the air raid alert and stayed inside our bath, since there are no shelters close to our home. At roughly 5:40 am we heard loud bangs, the whole building was shaking and the sky turned red.. Electricity and water dissapeared. I waguely remember myself frantically dressing up in whatever was closer and running downstairs. The night before that we were looking for a parking space for our car and almost parked it right where the fire broke out in the morning.... All of the exploded cars, burned to hauntingly white color, are all still there. Each and every day I have to go past them as it's the only path out of the apartment complex...

[@vipermad358]

I like the notion that YOU will tell ME which channels to believe. 😂

[@tasfa10]

LOL "WHETHER THE RULES BASED ORDER SURVIVES OR NOT" AND "THE ADVENT OF A NEW WORLD ORDER WHERE MIGHT MAKES RIGHT" God, those were some good jokes

[@FireJach]

I didn't expect this kind of content on your channel

[@sillysad3198]

when there is a world wide battle between Good and Evil, you expect anybody to remain neutral? really?

[@artyb27]

Why? He's given updates on the Russo-Ukrainian war on this channel before.

[@economicserfdom4087]

He is a shameless NATO propagandist

[@obz1357]

Good and evil?? Really? Things aren't always black and white my guy ​@@sillysad3198

[@Atesz222]

I prefer it when you stick to topics about logistics and public transport because at least in those cases you kinda know what you're talking about

[@mk1st]

The thing that irks me is that the F-16s could have been used last winter - while there was minimal on-ground fighting - to disrupt Russia’s massive defensive trench building. This seems like an opportunity that was wasted.

[@streamofthesky]

Yup. From the start of the war I was one of the people screaming to give Ukraine jets and frustrated that we didn't. How many Ukrainians lost their lives during the failed southern counter-offensive that were a result of all the time Russia had to prepare defenses? It's utterly infuriating, and lends credence to the conspiracy theories that the US doesn't want Ukraine to win decisively and swiftly, but rather to use Ukraine to grind down Russia over many years (at the expense of Ukrainian lives). I'm so fed up w/ our tip toe approach of not wanting to "anger Russia", so then we wait a year and do the thing we claimed would anger them anyway, far too little and too late.

[@peabody3000]

last year there were no trained ukrainian pilots at the ready. the US and allies have had to roll out their support cautiously over time to decrease the risk of russia escalating to drastic measures

[@mishynaofficial]

​@@peabody3000escalation bs yada yada. If US wanted they could start training Ukrainian pilots since March 2022.

[@keiyakins]

​@@mishynaofficial Try 2014. It was pretty obvious Crimea was just testing the waters.

[@meegz149]

@mk1st ukraine has already used weapons that will be on the f-16 like JDAMs. F-16s and especially the scant numbers being sent, will do F all.

[@MagnusMoerkoereJohannesen]

Another A++ follow: Anders Puck Nielsen, a Danish Commander at the Royal Danish Defence College, and a legit expert on Russia.

[@notfreeman1776]

Did you seriously just casually drop the statement "If Donald Trump wins the election he will initiate an autocracy causing the Military to enact a coup to remove him" as if it was the most certain thing in the world? that is pure derangement talking

[@rais1953]

Extend your imagination for a moment. If Trump is elected and after some time settling into the position the military see that, in their view, he is demolishing Constitutional government in favour of extending his own rule beyond his term, a military leadership might consider itself forced to remove him in order to restore Constitutional government. I'm not saying it's likely, just that it's not impossible. I'm not judging Trump's intentions myself, I'm not American, just an observer with a good knowledge of Constitutional government.

[@notfreeman1776]

@@rais1953 this is a downright apocalyptic scenario and its not being based on any real concrete evidence

[@mathiasrryba]

Trump openly endorses Putin and recently was sharing his total dictatorship wet dream of the position of POTUS being above all law and no consequences for any crimes committed while president. @@notfreeman1776

[@lurmpfh0ne]

I agree a military coup or trump installing a dictatorship is unlikely but there quite literally is a plan to install an autocracy if he wins power, it's on Wikipedia for everyone to read

[@BadJellyman100]

​@@notfreeman1776was Jan 6 just a friendly pizza party then?

[@dr0ogie]

there is no rules-based order. it was always the stronges who has the say. but the us is crumbling and its hegemony is falling.

[@Bob-jn8jt]

Thank you for making this video and updating us on the situation. Crazy how Israel can get all the advanced equipment to fight a very one sided war unaliving more civilians than combatants but Ukraine who is actually fighting a real war that is a real threat to our world democracy has to campaign for funds.

[@IsamuDyson]

Most of the advanced equipment is of israeli manufacture. Also, pretty much all the ordnance being used was already stockpiled. Also you're downplaying the conflict since they are fighting a legitimate war with a valid casus belli against a genocidal organization that uses asymmetrical warfare using civilians as cannon fodder mainly for propaganda purposes.

[@ahmadzahraniAAZ]

Is it any wonder why more and more people are joining terror groups? Probably they're trying to repeat the success of Europe, the oldest terror group.

[@killedya3450]

⁠@@IsamuDysonimagine still giving Israel undying support even after nearly 30,000 civilians have been killed by their brutal actions

[@meegz149]

@Bob-jn8jt "real war that is a real threat to our world democracy" OMG , I can't. I knew if I scrolled long enough, I'd see some really 70 iq takes. Your comment did not dissapoint.

[@legrandliseurtri7495]

@@meegz149 It is a real war, and a democratic nation falling to an authoritarian one is a threat to world democracy. I don't see what's wrong with this comment.

[@mats8375]

I will add Dylan Burns to Adam's list. He is an American streamer who is reporting from Ukraine, dodging the shells. Guy has 22 years, but he's a better journalist than half of CNN.

[@wodekw6862]

I think he went home for holidays

[@mats8375]

@@wodekw6862 Yeah, he is streaming from the US now. He's going back in the spring if I remember correctly.

[@thijmstickman8349]

Yeah they've interacted in the past, hoped he mentioned him considering how underrated he is and his financial issues

[@007ShaolinMonk]

As a Ukrainian, I can say it is a pretty good video, these points of view are really filling the current affairs. I would like to also mention, that the 'Security assurances' or 'pseudo guaranties' are frowned upon by the society because of previous Budapest memorandum being highly unpopular nowadays in Ukraine. Nobody wants to make this mistake twice and people think that giving away our nuclear weaponry and arsenals (which is being directly used against us now, apart from nukes ... for now). This time people would be not likely to swallow an empty promise, so this is realisticly unlikely that these agreements would be enough to force us to go for 'peace talks' with the russian terrorists.

[@Sir_Cole]

Could Ukraine theoretically build new nuclear bombs? No right?

[@mahatmarandy5977]

@@Sir_Cole No, I don’t think they could. It requires a fairly intense and specific industry to do it.

[@mahatmarandy5977]

If it’s any consolation, nuclear weapons have a relatively short shelf life. They require lots of periodic maintenance and the fissionable material has to be replaced fairly frequently. I don’t think Post-Soviet Russia ever had the money to keep that up anyway, and given all the graft and corruption in their military, I’m sure most of the money allocated for it went to oligarchs. So more than likely most of the old Soviet warheads no longer work. I mean, I’m sure they have more than enough to cause a hell of a lot of trouble, the ones on their subs certainly work, and those alone are more than enough to trash several countries, but of the 5800 or so they claim to have, probably 75-80 percent are inoperable.

[@JonMartinYXD]

@@Sir_Cole Nuclear weapons are not worth the cost. The money required to develop and maintain them can buy vast amounts of conventional weapons you can actually use. What is the benefit of a nuclear bomb if you can develop the means to drop a 500 kg conventional bomb on Putin's house? The US is currently planning on replacing its aging silo-based ICBM fleet, but the only reason they are doing so is due to political pressure from the companies that will build the new missiles and the representatives of the states the silos are in. I have seen independent cost estimates as high as a trillion dollars. Keep in mind that the US already has the silos, the warheads, and all the warhead maintenance infrastructure. The money for the replacement project is just for new reentry vehicles to put existing warheads in, and new missiles to put those reentry vehicles on.

[@JonMartinYXD]

@@mahatmarandy5977 And if there is one place in the military where it is easy to get away with graft, it is in warhead maintenance. It is all super classified so there is very little oversight and very few people that have to be in on the crime. And the likelihood of getting exposed is very low: no one is willing to use nukes, and in the incredibly unlikely event of a nuclear war no one is going to be left afterwards to conduct an inquest into why 95% of the warheads turned out to be full of yogurt.

[@ianm1462]

5:00 - man, I’ve heard some wild takes on this channel, but ‘the US military will coup Trump if he’s elected and starts acting autocratically’ takes it. Go back to ragging on Elon, you’re much better at that

[@Julez60]

Military coup in USA? The world is "rules based"?Lmaooo Youve been drinking your own Koolaid too much bro 🤡🤡🤡

[@aaronhernandez2782]

Why do you keep saying "rules-based world order" and not "international law"?

[@valdasdr8432]

rule-based world order is just a codeword for being a puppet peasant following orders of powerful psychopaths no matter what as long as everything is justified in operation mockingbird media. Dude is too brainwashed.

[@Andrey_Catsman]

Thank you gratefully for the light on our war man in media. Glory to Ukraine.

[@skah5651]

Light? Maybe. But he did said speculations. i do not believe this war is so simple now.

[@Andrey_Catsman]

@@skah5651 of course there would be speculations, it's the Internet after all.

[@sabbyd1832]

Great summary Adam. Whatever Ukraine chooses, I am with them. Ta for the info on Perun.

[@Dovoline3]

What's really needed is a comprehensive and coordinated vision for supplying and modernizing Ukraine with equipment, and letting Ukrainian officers take the lead with planning. The Counteroffensive largely failed because NATO planners forgot that just because Ukraine can shoot down hundreds of cruise missiles and the occasional fighter, doesn't mean they *actually* have air superiority. They need an F-16 fleet to be able to do that. Ukrainian officers have much more experience operating under conditions where the main push has to be made on the ground, against fortified enemy positions that have not been softened by air power. NATO planners involved with the next counteroffensive should limit themselves to making sure no old Soviet tendencies creep through, e.g. making sure units actually collaborate on a large scale rather than acting independently, making sure upper ranks don't try to micromanage the field, and making sure that the diversionary operation actually stars BEFORE the main counteroffensive instead of a week and a half after.

[@Alan0000able]

No F16 fleet is gonna able to grant air superiority here. Just because the front lines are now to dense with AA systems that prevent aircraft from doing much. Even on Russia's side that has plenty of aircraft to spare, we see that pilots are not risking to fly too close and often just shoot long-range missiles. Idea that the F16 will appear and turn Top Gun Maverick on Russian Air Forces is flawed not to mention that much more important is what missiles will be provided along side them.

[@pierrebegley2746]

You're deluded if you think F-16s were going to magically save that counteroffensive.

[@Dovoline3]

@@Alan0000able F-16 fleet will have no trouble establishing air superiority. Kit the Russians are using is no different from what we saw in Desert Storm, and even aircraft far older and heavier than the F-16 were never even remotely threatened by those AD systems. Russian aircraft aren't risking flights because Russian aircraft fundamentally cannot defeat modern AA missiles.

[@Dovoline3]

@@pierrebegley2746The counteroffensive failed primarily because of Russian air superiority. F-16s would have denied that and allowed the counteroffensive to proceed unimpeded.

[@Dovoline3]

@arlekino4688 That's still a good 35-40 years ahead of what Russian AD systems are actually capable of engaging.

[@kosmori9898]

Thank you for your support. I love your content and clear stance.

[@wfb.subtraktor311]

Serious question: If my only choices are anti-Ukraine Politicians who do not support Israel in its genocide of Palestinians, or Pro-Ukraine-Politicians who do support said genocide, which do I choose? Cause both options seem equally necessary and unconscionable simultaneously.

[@JoaoSantos-ur1gg]

In your situation I'd choose the party which is better on domestic affairs, which would probably be the first option (tankies tend to be OK on domestic affairs but awful on foreign affairs because, similarly to the right, they think some kinds of imperialism are better than others). I'd vote on an empty stomach tough, otherwise I'd vomit in the polls.

[@wfb.subtraktor311]

@@JoaoSantos-ur1gg Die Linke (the German left) is hardly a tankie party at this point, all of those left the party recently due to an internal rift. The remaining people are democratic socialists but they still think we shouldn't send weapons to Ukraine cause "weapons = bad". Meanwhile the greens have gone full fash on the Israel/Palestine issue and have long abandoned everything they used to stand for apart from their silly opposition to anything related to nuclear power.

[@ntPingu]

Reading the news the last week on Ukraine was horrible abd left me quite confused. This is why I actually eagerly awaited an zpdate of yours. Thanks! ❤

[@feylezofriza]

Tell the Gazan children buried under rubble about the rules-based world order

[@ammarabu-qalbain616]

Right? But do you guys know why adam hasnt done any work covering the GENOCIDE in gaza as far as i know. Isreal has literally killed almost 3 times as much civilians in the span of a few months as russia has killed in 2 years. This guy doesnt even try to hide his bias and it fucking infuriates me how hypocritical he is being

[@woomicky]

Literally a Nato propagandist

[@sH-ed5yf]

No kid. Just an accurate description of current stalemate

[@woomicky]

How come Ukraine keeps losing territory then? The RF keep making advances.@@sH-ed5yf

[@sH-ed5yf]

@@woomicky cause russia is throwing insane amounts of goons and equipment into the meatgrinder. Hundreds of vehicles and thousands of man, for a single street or a acre in the country side. Russia wont win a war by spending such casaulties while gsining 1% of ukraine per year.

[@dosa2990]

​@@sH-ed5yfaccurate description😂? Lol, all his previous videos have shown how far from reality this Ukrainian propaganda KZbinr is. The facts can be manipulated for a while & loop sided arguments made, but eventually time reveals all truths. Just look at his library of war videos shows the level of "accuracy " against the test of time

[@sH-ed5yf]

@@dosa2990 Sure kid. Then tell us all what inaccuaracy you find here

[@salce_with_onion]

ADAM HAS BECOME A POWER POINT GUY OH MY GOD PERUN WHAT HAVE YOU DONE

[@soggymarshmallow]

Whilst losing US support would be a significant headache for Ukraine, I'd doubt that Germany and Poland would sit on their hands.

[@Don8Maverick]

as far as I remember the US gave as much military aid to ukraine as all the other countries combined and If i remember the numbers correctly from my memory, its 3 times as much as poland and germany combined, there's a threshold to how much a country can give. so yeah losing the us aid is gonna be disastrous if it happens.

[@ignatz2]

@@Don8MaverickPoland has mostly been focused on preparing themselves for the worst outcome, since they're literally right next to the war. When they have that sorted out they should start providing Ukraine with more aid.

[@bixbysnyder-00]

Germany is still sitting on their hands.

[@naturalnonsense]

Poland’s too busy blocking borders :/

[@birdinmotion1525]

"The US military will inevitably coup him" I don't know if I trust the military to break down the autocracy that enables them

[@gergogeczi8127]

You talk about the rule based system where no country can invade another for any reason when the reality is that this rule applies only to countries that are not the USA or it's allies like Israel. We've seen what they permit to be done to the palestinians and what they themselves did just recently against the houthies. You're right there is no real justification for war, if there is a just, fair sytem in place, where countries can settle diputes in a civilized manner.

[@vinvillian4621]

These are scary times but I really appreciate your well researched work in this topic. Let’s hope we are on the best possible outcome timeline with everything said here.

[@magnem1043]

Rules based Israeli leadership amiright guys, licking boots for foreign actors 😂

[@ryanfallon885]

I think that one other channel to follow on the Ukraine war would be Dylan Burns, he's a wartime journalist/streamer who embedded with the Ukrainian troops one multiple occasions and generally has been very invested with this as a journalist. He has a bias (in favor of Ukraine) but everyone does and he seems to get a lot of on-the-ground information

[@gg_sam7847]

Literally all of that went into one ear and out the other. But you're enjoyable enough to listen to that I don't mind wasting my time on it

[@AyubuKK]

I’ve seen news sources discussing how the war in Ukraine and Israel-Palestine, as well as tensions between the US and China, is changing modern geo-politics.

[@Harry._.Thompson]

Is this new news to u? Lol

[@MEGA7155]

@@Harry._.Thompsonit’s News in general, you don’t need to be dismissive just because you think it’s cool

[@sillysad3198]

@@Harry._.Thompson wait for him to inject here a ru prop link.

[@Nerobyrne]

One thing which is likely going to be HUGE going down the road is that this has massively changed the attitude towards defense spending and the military in general in Germany. A few months ago I read in the paper that our minister of defense said something along the lines of "Germany will be the military back bone of Europe". Used to be that Germany wasn't that interested in building up an army. In fact, our military was more of a joke. Sure the tech was good, but we weren't using it ^.^ After all, why? Who was gonna attack us? Well, Putin sure answered that question. Now it seems like in Germany and also the rest of the EU, the need for a strong military is once again on everyone's minds. I'm quite certain that no matter how this war turns out, it shifted the road we take over the next decades considerably.

[@conors4430]

Honestly, this nonsense that Putin wants to take the rest of Europe is just bullshit. He has reasons why it made sense to attack Ukraine. The rest is just the western world trying to claim that he’s nuts and another Hitler. Whether anybody wants to admit it or not, it made sense to attack Ukraine if you are a paranoid Russian establishment. Because nato was very clearly going to incorporate Ukraine, putting NATO 300 miles from Moscow for the first time ever. People wanted to act like the Russians are just batCrap crazy, like that’s the end of the story, while also forgetting that promises were made by George Bush senior and Bill Clinton at the end of the Cold War that NATO would not move any further east than a reunited Germany. NATO then spent the next 20 years, moving closer and closer to Russia. It is also part of NATO rules that no country can join the alliance while it has territorial disputes, which is probably why Russia, invaded. Aside from that, Russia has shown no interest or movements whatsoever to attack anywhere else in Europe, let alone a NATO aligned country. He’s a bad dude but stop believing absolutely everything. Not every crazy world leader is adolf Hitler.

[@augustuslunasol10thapostle]

This actually is kicking off something interesting did you notice Germany taking a more keen interest in the Philippines and the south china sea in general? Maybe im wrong but it seems like the western powers are now more interested in making sure weaker non-nato allies and friends don’t get gobbled up by a authoritarian regime.

[@zanizone3617]

That's assuming we _have_ a few more decades to leisurely prepare. And that shysters like Orban don't take over more EU/Nato countries.

[@VerityFraser]

The end of NATO is a terrifying prospect, but against my better judgement I at least hope that the non-US members see it as an opportunity to strengthen their bonds and face a 'post-America' world (in that the US is increasingly hostile or indifferent towards them). I always felt that NATO could be the stepping stone to a trans-pacific super state, forged in the blood we're facing (and will face), but I also know that I get a worrying number of people asking, "What's that?" and pointing to the NATO flag I have on my leather jacket. So..... yeah, a non-US NATO would be realistically catastrophic, but this Canadian is holding out hope we'll still be there to stand on guard for thee, whether it be us or our friends overseas.

[@mseeross]

Nato should never have been expanded past Germany. Do you really think the Canadian public would support a mass mobilization if Russia invaded the Baltics? Had Nato stayed smaller it would look more competent, more exclusive and carry a stronger influence. George F Kennan bitterly opposed expansion, but Clinton wanted it "just feels right".

[@personzorz]

​@@mseerossThe bigger the more powerful and the less likely the need to engage it

[@sillysad3198]

The end of NATO is a terrifying prospect for russia! because NATO was created to bureaucratize and entangle all potential anti-soviet initiatives. bog down EUrope into a "defensive stance"

[@sillysad3198]

@@mseeross Baltic states were accepted into NATO in order to undermine a more effective anti-russian alliance between the recently liberated nations.

[@50043211]

The EU has something like Article 5, even more binding then the NATO one. Funnily enough, it would not only be a disaster for the US but for Turkey was well, because suddenly, no NATO, while Greece and Cyprus are in the EU and whats more, the Turks are illegally occupying territory of a EU member state while no more US protection.

[@holygooff]

I respect your optimism on this theme, but I'm not on the same page. I think the morale drop in the West and in Ukraine are significant. Before Ukraine was a strong united front. They almost laughed into the face of danger. Ukraine was strong and would obtain victory eventually, whatever it might take. Now that front is shattering. Being on the front for years, without having andy idea when it might end, when you might be relieved or if it would lead to something will eventually crush your morale. We saw the same happening with the insurrections in the French army in WWI. I think it's very hard to continue to believe in the united nation when a large number of mean are trying to avoid being drafted or are living rather comfortably in Western-Europe. I very much understand why people would want to avoid the nightmare of the front, but you cannot deny that this reality destroys the illusion of a national effort. This will lead to divisions and resentment in society, even long after the war. 2024 will be a very tough year. 2025 might be better if Ukraine can overcome these problems and if the West won't enter an age of fascism.

[@allliquid6320]

The moral in ucrain is high. The moral in the west seems more apathetic then low. If the war goes into the background out of the public eye it's actually easier for the government to support ucrain. If the population isn't complaining bc they don't care then the government may have its fun. I don't think there are enough western folks who want to see ucrain fight all alone with out support. I think there are polical reasons for thier stance trying to get something for thier side before giving the green light to ucrain. Its all rather selfish.

[@dukenukem8381]

I am Ukrainian and my morale didn't drop one bit, only bit dissapointed how west easily persuaded by vatnik lies.

[@42sraf]

Your comment is spot on, as a Ukrainian. Filed offence was indeed a devastating blow on morale, we also see rise of popularity in far right government which makes future seem very pessimistic. From ukranian point of view russia has basically limitless amount of men, weapons and money even if that’s not the case. It’s really hard to keep being optimistic

[@mishynaofficial]

Nothing will change until the West supplies the REAL game changing tech. That's my honest opinion as Ukrainian.

[@ricker024]

Average age of Ukrainian at the front lines is 42 Years old. They are running out of their prime population for wartimes. War of attritions are Russia’s Forte. Even if they have artillery they don’t have the men to man it unless it’s imported in from the EU or NATO which… is a WHOLE different case of Fooking risky.

[@TheCkap35]

Thanks so much for continuing to cover the war in Ukraine.

[@lordofutub]

Nice PowerPoint presentation

[@Dreju78]

8:40 weeeeeeelll..... As a Pole, I'd say they were the aggressors back then too. It's just that their partner in crime turned on them. Pretty sure all of the Baltics would agree with me on this. Finns too, perhaps. And Moldovans / Romanians (Bessarabians?). I like the comment I heard a few times. Russians speak of the Great Patriotic War, because that's the part of WWII they don't have to be ashamed of (too much).

[@IssabekovR]

Maybe one day Adam will realise that its not enough to just destroy the bridge to capture Crimea. The land bridge exists, with roads, existing rail roads and new railroads being built all the way to Crimea. That was the entire point of capturing the land bridge - to avoid complete reliance on the bridge. Plus there is an entire fucking sea that can be used to supply Crimea via transport fleet. The landing ship that was destroyed is not the only way to transport equipment.

[@ggoddkkiller1342]

The rules based world order already collapsed in Palestine, in fact it always had double standards anyway. We are one step behind figuring out our differences as we always did for thousands of years. As a Turkish person i can't say im surprised nor disappointed, blood price always works, simple and efficient..

[@TheSquirrelChaser]

Oh yeah, I never miss an epic Perun PowerPoint. His depth of knowledge on defense economics is matched only by his ability to communicate his understanding of it to the viewer. I'll have to start following your other suggestions ad well.

[@jannepeltonen2036]

Thanks for the analysis.

[@vitalimaly]

as ukrainian, I’m so depressed and hopeless regarding this 2024 year. another year of bombing, deaths, plus high chance of me dying if I am drafted into this. awful. nothing will change most likely until the US elections. good analysis tho

[@mausegetlit363]

Hopefully you are drafted

[@vitalimaly]

​@@mausegetlit363 enjoy your brainrot

[@skah5651]

@@mausegetlit363 so you are crazy and see no value in life and best thing you can think of is give your life. But unfortunately you will die for no reason, this conflict is a bloody mess, which might have ended already, either regaining territories from russia or and just negotiating for peace. There are corruption in Ukraine as i remember second corrupted state just before russia.

[@vxicepickxv]

In an effort to reduce the inflation in Russia over the price of eggs, they imported a lot from Turkey. About 20% of the eggs tested positive for H5N1, a form of avian flu that can transmit to humans.

[@52flyingbicycles]

“If Donald Trump gets elected and goes full fascist, there will be a military coup” *starts hyperventilating into paper bag*

[@thisdudegotreal]

I would love for it to be true that majority of US military cmd is anti-MAGA but I have serious doubt of that....

[@seanj4119]

This is actually a pretty interesting thought exercise. Any successful coup against the president would need the backing of Congress. Any would-be coup leaders would need to cover their asses legally and financially after the fact. The new presidential administration would cover the legal side with immunity from prosecution, but only Congress would be able to cover the financial side through guaranteed backpay. Problem is that if Trump wins, Republicans would take the House and maybe the Senate. MAGA may be a minority in both chambers, but most Republicans would toe the line. Then come 2026, which would likely be the most fraudulent, interfered-with election in American history. Democrats would be subject to voter and candidate intimidation, as would any remaining Republicans with a spine. If a critical mass of Democratic and non-MAGA Republican congressional leaders get pressured too far, a Congressionally-backed coup could happen to "preserve the sanctity of the 2026 Election," with MAGA sidelined in Congress either at the ballot box or by the end of a rifle. There is some precedent for this. When Andrew Johnson's lackluster post-Civil War Reconstruction program didn't pan out to Congress' liking, Radical Republicans in Congress effectively seized control of the government and Reconstruction to pass civil rights, voting rights, and expand the military occupation of the South, all overriding Johnson's vetoes. When Johnson tried to reshuffle his Cabinet to resist, the Republican Congress impeached him and nearly booted him from office.

[@52flyingbicycles]

@@seanj4119 I think the core of a military coup would, in the United States, would come from confusion about who the commander in chief is. I.e. the military does not know who to take orders from. So if there is real voter intimidation or fraud (not just mindless assertions by MAGA) that bring into legitimate question who won the presidency, the military would have to choose who they take orders from. In a Bush v Gore situation, the Supreme Court handed down a verdict and the military was convinced. Similar for 2020, where a distinct lack of evidence of wrongdoing meant the military had no doubts. The goal of the 2021 insurrection would have been to present the alternative slate of electors to confuse the military enough to keep Trump in power. I doubt the military would have accepted this, and had January 6th succeeded, the military would have ousted Trump in a coup to install the rightful winner: Biden. Trump being out of office now somewhat mitigates the coup risk, since I highly doubt Biden would try to stay in office even if there was actual evidence of wrongdoing. Then the coup may come as a result of Trump ordering the military to perform an unconstitutional order, which they refuse, and he attempts to bypass the military hierarchy. This military rift would result in the anti-Trump faction either standing down or overthrowing him. Lastly, funding. The USA has a lot of allies that rely on it. If there is unity among our allies, they could fund a single side to either back or quash the coup, and dissenting allies would sit out for stability’s sake. If the dissenting allies decide to fund their side… that’s civil war

[@otdewiljes]

Oh, hi Perun, didn't know you had annexed this channel.

[@omgurheadsgone]

I’m excite!