Why being uncertain is a hidden strength | Annie Duke

We’re often ashamed to say “I don’t know” - but this professional poker player thinks it’s one of our greatest strengths:
❍ Subscribe to The Well on KZbin: bit.ly/welcome...
❍ Up next: Un-sabotage yourself with intrinsic motivation • Un-sabotage yourself w...
From a young age, society teaches us to avoid expressing uncertainty: saying “I don’t know” is a hallmark of failure and shame throughout our formative school years. But former professional poker player Annie Duke contends that admitting uncertainty reflects a more accurate understanding of reality.
While being certain may provide a false sense of security, it can close our minds to new information, hinder the fair calibration of our beliefs, and inhibit fruitful collaboration. Duke also highlights the crucial difference between confidence and certainty: while the former can be beneficial in specific contexts, like facing an opponent in poker, the latter can lead to overconfidence and hubris.
Duke argues that acknowledging uncertainty invites collaboration, as individuals actively seek out diverse opinions to form a comprehensive understanding. In contrast, certainty can limit learning and growth, potentially becoming a real obstacle to success.
Read the full video transcript: bigthink.com/t...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
❍ About The Well ❍
Do we inhabit a multiverse? Do we have free will? What is love? Is evolution directional? There are no simple answers to life’s biggest questions, and that’s why they’re the questions occupying the world’s brightest minds.
So what do they think?
How is the power of science advancing understanding? How are philosophers and theologians tackling these fascinating questions?
Let’s dive into The Well.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Join The Well on your favorite platforms:
❍ Facebook: bit.ly/thewellFB
❍ Instagram: bit.ly/thewellIG

[@The-Well]

Life is all about balance. How do you distinguish between healthy skepticism and being overly skeptical when it comes to uncertainty?

[@Torbu6286]

Skepticism is always healthy, what people commonly mean by over-skeptical is "radical skepticism" the academic skepticism, the one Socrates was "I know that I know nothing" this is bad, this is not skepticism at all, it's being dogmatic, it's self contradictory. And what people mean by overly skeptical is they assume truth exists and rule out that nothing is true, kinda epistemological nihilism which again is dogmatic... asserting something is not is seen as skepticism but it is not, well said in the video that being open is skepticism, not attaching beliefs to ourselves and asserting something's negative or positive is not skepticism. In a non-philosophical way the word skepticism is used as "denying" and ppl take this to the extreme and assume it's skepticism which is wrong. To be skeptical is to be pyrrhonic, it's what I'd say is healthy skepticism, which is what Annie Duke was kinda touching on.

[@rodrigodiaz5003]

It is so fulfilling to listen someone who is so articulate, so clear and clever

[@The-Well]

We agree! Thanks so much for watching!

[@MicahScottPnD]

Ive been telling people this for many years. But not nearly as well as Annie Duke does here. I understand every word of this one.

[@Science_-]

ikr! like, who am i, i know nothing, but i contantly meet people who act 100 percent sure on topics we know nothing about. wtf

[@Proxicus]

I think part of what it takes is someone well-spoken really and credible. That's partly of what it comes down to. People usually don't take people seriously until something important happens and then people start trying to get serious about their situation.

[@ismailwayne644]

Ig we human beings love to "feel" so, anything that doesn't spike our emotions we never really accept it.

[@aawiggins314159]

And I have been telling people this as well…if only the majority of the internet and podcasters would take this seriously

[@MicahScottPnD]

@@aawiggins314159 What you said is so nice to hear

[@bethra.flowers]

❤❤❤ Great points! I am finding that to be very true in my life of nearly 50 years. The more I learn the more I know that I don't know much.

[@darrianphillips]

This is why I’m agnostic, despite an extreme religious background. The identity associations she mentioned are such a huge part of why people don’t change their stances, imo. The embarrassment of having been wrong, among other factors, stops them from learning anything further about a given subject.

[@grooviechickie]

Me too. I cannot say for certain that there is or is no god(s). I feel it's actually arrogant of me to say so either way because I have no definitive proof.

[@slrdspirit]

I don't know about y'all, but what she is saying is making a tremendous amount of sense to me. And quite possibly one of the most complete understandings of life ive ever heard

[@mrdonetx]

Why would you not say you don't know? I say it every time I happen to not know something. It is usually followed by someone teaching me something new, doing research to figure out the answer or the best educated guess for the situation.

[@The-Well]

You have it figured out! This is considerably one of the best strategies! 🧠

[@infxmhc]

I grew up watching Annie Duke play poker. Great video ❤

[@jameslowellblakenship2192]

Believe in your self is the best thing you can have. If you fail then you have the knowledge of why you have failed. That is more valuable than what you started out with. What you learn in school is bullshit. What you learn in life is what you make the next day to control your strategy for the next day.

[@randomone4832]

This is called Bayesian reasoning, and it’s a very powerful way of thinking.

[@The-Well]

Thanks for the new vocab word!

[@catrocastre8215]

I think its a trauma that run in my family, and daresay, in my country for generations. It was/is not safe to say “I don't know".

[@Always.Smarter]

this may apply to someone who wants to be a successful scientist or academic, but not for a business person or politician. people don't want to hear that you don't know, nor do they really care about what is true, they just want someone who will make a decision and take responsibility for what happens, regardless of whether they turned out to be right.

[@t0pz87]

In the short term, maybe. In the longterm, those same folks will skin you alive for having made multiple bad calls because you were being ignorant at the time for the sake of temporary glory.

[@Always.Smarter]

@@t0pz87 assuming your calls were bad, yeah of course.

[@VuPham-bq7te]

I think it should be a balance between those two.

[@catrocastre8215]

I read somewhere that politicians do not receive all the information on purpose, so they can wash their hands more easily pleading on ignorance. I think IA could help us make smarter and ethical decisions if used wisely.

[@acsody]

The key here is to have an attitude that allows for an accurate representation of reality and, thus, good decisions. Maybe it turns out that being a businessman or politician isn't one ...😅

[@gramadafilip]

One funny thing that seems to constantly pop up in my life, whenever I find myself being 100% certain of a thing, the exact same opposite happens in the near future, or something that makes me question that exact belief or certainty. It s like the Universe is saying: you fool, you smart again, aren t u?

[@vitaminkplus]

“I don’t know, but I’m willing to curiously engage”. The second part is important. Some only remain at the first part and never progress from there.

[@baddayoverdosed]

Her point about people demanding the answer to a coin flip deserves more exploration because it feels like people make those kinds of demands so frequently in life. Will it rain tomorrow? Well, there’s a %60 chance of rain? So you’re telling me I have to cancel my son’s birthday party!? Well….

[@acsody]

I would tell you that there is a 60% chance your party is better off indoors.

[@Proxicus]

I think what Annie Duke described is from 3:45 to 4:15 is basically bounded rationality which can be caused by motivated reasoning and bounded rationality with confirmation bias. Sometimes we can be wrong, and sometimes we can be right. A lot of this video describes basically how we are limited by not enough feedback. I believe that's why the concept of Trash in, trash out is an important concept in machine learning. With the advent of AI being released for public and private use, it's important to train AI in the good way and ask hard-hitting questions and develop it properly to immerse the players without disrupting their immersion. That's my opinion at least. All I can say really.

[@The-Well]

Very well said! Thank you for sharing!

[@rashidabaakza8554]

💯true 👍 we always believe in whatever we know (maybe very little 1/100). World is full of information and knowledge, we just need to learn as much as possible every single day.

[@sudarshanbadoni6643]

Thanks. Being quite old can say an old saying " there are so many slips between cup and lips is an uncertainty principle coined by some one there in Europe beside Heinsberg UNCERTAINTY principle. Certainty is the money in the pocket and uncertainty is where that will go and certainly is thrilling uncertainty. Thanks again.

[@bronstadheim164]

Fantastic insight

[@The-Well]

Happy to hear this! Thanks for being here!

[@Torbu6286]

Well said

[@observingsystem]

I love this!

[@The-Well]

We're glad! Thanks for watching!

[@dumb_gril]

i’m aware that this is potentially undermining the message and the work she’s done but it is actually quite hard for me to keep this is in: she is adorable and so beautiful 😭

[@sivaprasadks8781]

very useful

[@teoengchin]

I'm 80% certain this is good advice

[@pauljimerson8218]

I'm not sure

[@polymathematics5837]

Sadhguru has been teaching the seeking philosophy fir a very long time. I agree and his message is reiterated here.

[@tontongasy]

As truth as embracing uncertainty is a strength, what makes the difference is if you're having a positive/negative mindset...are you telling yourself good/bad stories following that "I don't know"?

[@grasshoppa666]

The story of the Chinese farmer is a good example of this.

[@ArtinJ]

Well, isn't the state of being certain that uncertainty is the way to go inherently contradictory? What is the solution to this?

[@Science_-]

brillliant

[@tadrb1577]

Never forget what her brother Howard Lederer did to poker and to all the people who lost so much because of him!!! There is no way she didn't know everything and didn't profit in some way as well. F Annie Duke

[@ToughGuyWithaGun]

The way I see it, all of the full tilt insiders and talking heads are fully culpable.

[@mmmmai_]

Actually, you should organize what you are going to talk. As a non-native english speaker, i find it hard to follow because the script is not coherent enough

[@isakekelund]

Cartesian doubt

[@jaqsro]

👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽

[@JeremyHelm]

4:28 where's the approach of addressing why they think there's a link to autism? Not all stubborn beliefs have as clear of an upside for abandoning them as protection from deadly diseases.

[@SaojininiranjalaNethu-xi8mw]

❤️🥴🔥

[@NewLife-qj9mx]

I want to like this video but im just not sure 🤔

[@lazy8528]

I already knew uncertainty and luck matters. I'm just here 'cause she's cute ❤

[@5hydroxyT]

that all sounds great but....that’s not how you win on the internet

[@dionzapata7959]

Add "yet" to "I don't know" And "I can't do it "

[@The-Well]

Love this! 💡

[@ZeroPeopleSkills]

I really wish I could tell people how wrong they are as beautifly as she does...maybe I wouldn't get punched so often.

[@deleted_why]

this might bear weight...

[@LD-wf2yt]

What is uncertainty? There is no simple answer. We could address the question by asking different questions: What matters to us? Why is something important to us? Try WOOP. We could systematically engage in System thinking, Scenario Planning, Critical Thinking, Full stack thinking, Inversion thinking, Paradoxical thinking, Provocative thinking, Audit (Health check) thinking etc. Uncertainty vs Change (Ego). Experiment, think differently. Uncertainty as a range (probabilistic, confidence interval). Uncertainty vs Risk. Uncertainty vs Disconnect. Find a common goal, then reconnect! In VUCA Uncertainty has a few "friends": Volatility, Complexity and Ambiguity. In VUCA 2 the counterpart of Uncertainty is Understanding. Ask questions. Observe. Uncertainty as a scale between emotions of the Worst case scenario and Best case scenario with stages in between. Uncertainty causes hesitation, doubt, fear, anxiety, stress which drains our energy. Get out of that state, ASAP.