The Winds of Winter in 2025? What does Dance tell us about that?

[@jaysemitchells497]

Damn, no "i'm probably wrong about half of this," we're cooked

[@trippinzombiez]

He did say “I hope I’m wrong” about everything lol I took it for a reference

[@TobascoCatMC]

:0

[@Wutru36]

Egg, i dreamed that i was old.

[@ranfan1820]

Egg, I dreamed that Winds wasn't finished.

[@lisacook8235]

I dreamed of Spring.

[@raaaaaaaaaam496]

Preston runs a KZbin channel

[@Longshanks1690]

That largely centres on A Song Of Ice And Fire.

[@iamkonner4813]

@@Longshanks1690as such he is asked the question a lot “when is the Winds of Winter”?

[@LEGObiWanKenobi]

As such, he often gets the question: When is Winds of Winter coming out?

[@thomasb.anderson8113]

a bold assumption

[@YarPirates-vy7iv]

Preston runs a KZbin channel?!?

[@QuinnTheGM]

Wholeheartedly agree with you on nearly every point made here, sad as it is. I do think there's one notable shift that isn't accounted for here - I think how GRRM talks about his work in progress has fundamentally shifted in the time since Dance, maybe because of HBO and the show. Even when he was on a hot streak as he was during Covid, his updates were NOTHING like those he gave consistently throughout 2010. I agree that the current blog drought (today nonwithstanding) is a bad sign, but I don't think he'd ever get back to the 2010 state of the blog being essentially a direct line on his progress.

[@dasaggropop1244]

because there is no progress... just knots. the knot of ice, the knot of fire, the knot of steel, the knot of blood, etc

[@matthewodonnellgavaghan]

That's true. I do think that the silence is concerning, but I don't think that just because he isn't talking about the writing process like he did before doesn't necessarily mean that nothing is getting written. He's a lot more busy too. He admitted in his recent blog post that he didn't have enough time to even write about all the stuff he did on his blog. Even if he was writing well, like he did during covid and 2022, would he even have the time to go into as much detail about it on his blog like he did before? Like, he used to give a lot of information on writing some of the characters. Back in 2022, he mentioned nearly being done with Tyrion, but he barely spoke about the writing process of Tyrion in winds. So my silver lining is, even though he's not talking about the writing process of winds like he did with Feast and Dance, that doesn't necessarily mean that nothing is being written. His situation had just changed

[@420bengalfan]

was he really on hot streak or just say that to get people off his back

[@username_hu]

Something Preston never addresses is George’s writing progress on Fire & Blood (and the novellas that it was built from). You can argue the quality and depth is not the same as ASOIAF books but going by word count F&B is fairly close to AFfC (85%) and the updates during the period writing it is nothing like 2011 or earlier.

[@JenksAnro]

​@@420bengalfanthat doesn't make sense, people won't get off his backs until it is finished, and then get on his back for Dream. So I think this is just conspiracy: he has no issue telling us when he hasn't written much, so no reason to think he's lying when he tells us he's written a lot.

[@thomasb.anderson8113]

the real winds of winter are the friends we made along the way

[@hamletfisherman5740]

🥲

[@sharpness7239]

Unironically

[@Einheit091]

Finally a normal scripted preston video, that is not a podcast, has someone else or has a non got topic. Its been a while

[@yami_323]

No minions, just pure preston

[@jrwilliams4029]

Has anyone realized that George hasn’t produced an ASOIAF novel since he got married? Perhaps it’s unrelated but hard to overlook.

[@MarcoAurelio-qo3sj]

​@@jrwilliams4029wait what, grrm is married? I thought he was still a virgin

[@PassivesAbseits]

To be fair to Preston: It is kind of difficult, to create new scripted theories, when the text is basically dead by now.

[@jaipandey7142]

Scripted Preston theory videos are really good & interesting than the podcast one. Hour long videos with less texts and images on screen, and people talking is really boring.

[@madmanjoules]

As someone who’s been watch you since “Frey in the snow” I actually had no idea you ran a KZbin channel. I thought this was your MySpace page

[@joshhoffman5233]

The short answer is no, the longer answer is fuck no

[@PrestonJacobstheSweetrobin]

You mean "fuuuuuuuuck no"

[@joshhoffman5233]

@ thats the longest answer

[@anonymous-hz2un]

It's getting to a point where we all have to wait for George to pass away so the series can finally be finished by a new author.

[@sfcSpidey]

When I see articles or speculation pieces online if winds will come out this year or next year I always roll my eyes because George absolutely let’s us know if he made any progress or positive momentum on his blog with teases or outright confirmation he has been very silent and not positive at all about winds I doubt he has written more than 50 pages since Covid

[@desertraider8628]

That would be fan fiction though ​@@anonymous-hz2un

[@Polkka_Dot]

Winds will come out when the sun rises in the west and sets in the east, when the seas go dry and the mountains blow in the winds like leaves.

[@lichlord9838]

The sun does rise in the east and set in the west...

[@ranfan1820]

​@@lichlord9838So the seas just got to dry and the mountains need to blow away in the winds...

[@alex30425]

If Winds does ever come out, then no one can tell me otherwise this happened.

[@rangarolls6018]

​Its out, I just checked

[@jrwilliams4029]

1100 pages over 14 yrs, according to GRRM, averages out to 78 pages per year. If George is aiming for another 400 pages that’s only another 5 years before he is finished with TWOW.

[@twiss9341]

This kind of analysis of George’s past habits with regards to release schedule is just the right amount of unhinged we as a fandom yearn 😂

[@AndreD97]

You had the perfect chance to close the video with the sentence: "I hope I'm probably wrong about half of this."

[@donaldjgumpofficial5754]

I wonder if he even wants it to come out anymore. He's making his fanfiction.

[@wyomingptt]

I'll take a freaking coloring book that outlines the basic plot art this point.

[@JayBigDadyCy]

Fr 😂😂😂

[@bearcubdaycare]

I've seen a comic book used to finish a TV series...

[@Drowninginantimatter]

A coloring book of ASoIaF could be pretty funny. I'm imagining the page for the Red Wedding.

[@dustinsmith2021]

@@bearcubdaycareangel?

[@StrayCatInTheStreets]

Hi I am talking to you from the year 2525, unfortunately last week in the latest blog post from the A.I GRRM model v173.6.12, he has said it's only going ok. He got some words done over the last few months but the latest news from the election on Ganymede has him on a downer. He is going to take a break from writing for a few days to watch his beloved Jets go 0-16 in the Zero G Football League.

[@hectoraccented5312]

Dammit, they really went full tilt replicating GRRM's mind, no expenses spared.

[@majestichotdog1195]

@@hectoraccented5312you cant cut away any percieved flaws as it would affect the output. The grrm has to grrr..m on

[@idiotsmonthly3969]

Maybe the real Winds of Winter was the horses we became along the way...

[@schrubber98]

My brain read this with a glidus voice lol what in the brainrit has he done to us 🤣

[@idiotsmonthly3969]

@@schrubber98 This is what 14 years of no Winds has done to us...

[@josephstalin2829]

Don’t let TWOW distract you from the fact that Tyrek Lannister was last seen ahorse

[@thekage100]

Yay! Not just a clip from a talk, but a real video! 😂

[@OneOnOne1162]

I studied psychology in college as my major. I think at this point, considering all the videos I've watched, I know more about why George gets stuck on writing and how he progressed on Dance than I do about psychology.

[@cristaldubragg3110]

Lol, all his fans knows how he writes, but nobody knows when is he finishing

[@black_foresst]

Mood: Feeling Excited

[@thewatcher2538]

wait preston runs a youtubechannel that centers on ice and fire? i didn't know that

[@ryanrogers6072]

What?!? Maeve has a daughter!

[@Ancor_Vantian]

@@ryanrogers6072 Lady Gaolbait is her name,

[@66something_77]

Preston is kinda like the "nothing ever happens" guy for asoiaf fans

[@alexsnewhandle]

ironic given all his theories

[@rangarolls6018]

​If everything always happens is that not nothing ever happening? 🤔

[@TheNobleStar9075]

Preston usually says "I'm probably wrong about half of this" at the end of his videos but then at 28:23 he says "I sincerely hope I'm wrong"

[@LoLLOL-kt9fk]

honestly the title "A Dream of Spring" has become more and more poetic throughout the years as we have come to the realisation that its never coming out

[@schrubber98]

Man, every time I hear anything about the magnitude of georges writing and his struggles I just wanna give him a big hug 🥲

[@bepoe2423]

I completely get that gardening is his process, but his refusal to properly plan and just go all in writing these intricate, amazing chapters only to just scrap them is infuriating to me. No wonder he is a chronic procrastinator, it's absolutely heartbreaking how much material he must put in the shredder.

[@thomasb.anderson8113]

the shredded lord

[@amysteriousviewer3772]

Especially something like the arrival in Meeren. It seems like that would be far easier to figure out in outline form instead of writing a bunch of chapters to see what works and then discarding most of them.

[@LeninistLink]

plus gardeners can guide were their plants grow and trim branches

[@anakin007darth]

Yeah. Or he can write a chapter without being worried about the pros and beautiful writing. Just focus on the story... Then if its good, he can spend more time with the pros. Because doing good writing snd good story at the same time is time consuming.

[@matthewparker9276]

I think he does plan situations in this way, but then he goes along to write them and dislikes how they start turning out so he scraps his progress and goes back to the drawing board.

[@darkdude103]

At this rate we have more when will the winds of winter come out by preston jacobs videos than actual winds of winter chapters

[@nateh9917]

Welp this video convinced me. We’re never getting a finished winds. Best I can hope for is for what has been written to get released after he dies. I’m sure what we get will be great, but it won’t be an ending. Oh well, at least we got 6000 pages of the best stuff I’ve ever read

[@booknerdlover3675]

I have no doubt depression is a part of the delays. Many of his friends, some were very close friends, have died in the last few years. That, coupled with him dwelling on his own mortality, can lead a person into a massive despair. That being said, 10 years ago I was hopeful. Now I’m just “meh”

[@KRISTIANITY_]

Oh my god, these blog posts make me feel so old, reading crap from 2004,6,7,10. The times of Anna Nicole, Sarah Palin, Bush and Iraq. And even then, there was George bitching about not knowing what to write.

[@anonymous-hz2un]

Even the GoT show itself makes me feel old by this point. This stuff is 14 years old by now. Kids who were born in 2011 are now in high school and date around.

[@tuomosalo2029]

Not to worry. I heard the orange guy is going to sign an executive order to mandate the release of the book.

[@rangarolls6018]

GRRM is the father of Trump theory????

[@jordankristoff5406]

@@rangarolls6018 Preston would become a MAGAman if true

[@Canario_27]

Winds of winter, great book, I'm telling you is the best book in history of books, probably ever, what a book, a true American book. Is going to be FAN TAS TIC

[@retriever19golden55]

Hardly...orange guy is pretty challenged in the reading department...if he were able to read it, he'd hate seeing women with power, renowned warriors who are gay, disabled people with power, etc.

[@cristaldubragg3110]

DO you mean orange Jesus?

[@thedragondemands]

George is too _humble_ to admit The Winds of Winter is almost finished!

[@lisacook8235]

Let us hope!

[@TylerOntario-ve5fw]

@@lisacook8235 Let us cope

[@justdirt]

Since I finished reading the books in late 2022-early 2023, I have become a writer myself and although I am no where near George (I have a few fan fics and a novel like 20% done), but the experience has given me a lot of insight into the writing process. It has made me understand George so much more. Some writers can just sit down and write a story start to finish. The have the characters in mind, the plot planned out, and they write one chapter at a time until the last one. Not all writers are like that tho, and at least for me personally, I jump between chapters and characters and sometimes even projects. Sometimes you just run into a part of the story where you don't know what is gonna happen and you just can't get the words down. Even if you have an end goal in mind for said chapter, sometimes there is a struggle to reach that point as well. Add on top of all of this the sheer scale and complexity of A Song of Ice and Fire and this seemingly erratic way of writing makes way more sense, at least to me.

[@matthewodonnellgavaghan]

I agree! I'm thinking about becoming a writer myself and I have to say that I feel that most fans underestimate how much the writer process can take a toll on the author and the story getting finished, especially with a story as complex as asoiaf. I know Preston complained that a lot of the Tyrion, Jon, and Danny chapter could have been cut, but I f you think about it, a lot of interesting and important suff happens in those chapters. For instance, Jon discussing food rations and weddings is important for the politics at the wall. I have faith that in George. And even if I am frustrated with how long teh book is taking, I understand that it's not an easy task

[@mihaelo7333]

I get excited every time PJ uploads. Too excited…

[@Cuzane]

Another book would bring another 10 years of your soothing voice giving a breakdown...

[@obsidian00]

Just here to support your docile and smooth tones Preston...and we're NEVER getting the last 2 books...IT IS KNOWN!!!

[@richardtabor8686]

Ty for the analysis. I enjoy how you've got a handle on the real world history of his progress which helps explain plenty of things. Ty for the content.

[@Lissagalli]

I got excited when they released the new covers last year. They dont usually do that unless they’re adding to the series or it’s a limited/collector edition

[@wyomingptt]

I think they're just desperate to make _something_ off this franchise.

[@durianthesleepy]

A Dance with Dragons was released on July 12, 2011, 13 years, 6 months, 18 days ago. Duke Nukem Forever was announced on April 27, 1997 and released June 10 2011. It was in development for 14 years, 1 month and 14 days total. Brace for August 24th, because you're going to be hearing this comparison a whole a bunch this year.

[@johnreynolds2512]

I read the first book in paperback in 1997. This video made me realize we've gotten only one book out of George in the last 20 years.

[@jakemccarroll9414]

I believe what’s causing the delay is the invasion of the others needs to happen earlier than he thought and Danny’s invasion will happen later than he thought

[@maltormash1048]

I think we will be lucky to see a meaningful update this year let alone a book.

[@drewdrewson1384]

thinking about all the history and tech releases that have taken place in between those blog posts, conventions, etc is wild

[@dancingdragon3]

George really needs to let go of no new povs. As a writer who also writes long and slow, he has probably invented more new characters by now that don’t have a pov on them but should. And he can have only one prologue in twow 😅

[@ted73318]

After 13 years, I wouldn't be surprised if George actually forgot most of the details of the story (loose ends he set up in the earlier books). This would make it extra difficult to write for him and mean that we're in a vicious cycle: the more distant the story grows, the harder it becomes to pick up again and so on...

[@anonymous-hz2un]

What a wet fart of an ending for a once glorious franchise. One of the cornerstones of the 2010s pop culture.

[@VinnieMF]

​@@anonymous-hz2un One of the problems was it being a "franchise" to begin with. Should've kept as books.

[@FlimsyPickles]

LOVE YOU PRESTON

[@N0N5T0P]

When will the winds of winter be released...? When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east...When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves...

[@DreamVikings]

George: “Tv is tough. Producers always want to CUT. With my pooks I can have all the characters and battles I want!” 25 years later: Preston “… It starts with the Mereenese knot. What is, the Mereneese knot?…”

[@tornado4708]

Here's my cope about lack of GRRM commenting on his progress, he is a changed man from 10 years ago and isn't detailing his progress as he doesn't want to let us down or be seen as a liar, "we'll get it when we get it" type of thing. Also I remember someone on the stream talking about how GRRM didn't talk much about Fire and Blood on his blog posts (though to be fair, a lot of that book is just rehashed stuff). Even with my cope though, everytime GRRM is interviewed about Winds, he sighs and says "it's coming" and that look of despair does not inspire hope.

[@aaronl4935]

the king has returned

[@bram_412]

He's going to publish one more slender novella-length installment, to make sure none of Preston''s work can be canon.

[@iceberg_dmb]

I love the audio and flow of your script and narration in these pre recorded videos.

[@coreyw2124]

Any day now baby

[@jamesberkeley390]

Any year now

[@4rthurzz]

This is the best breakdown yet.

[@reecev2087]

The fact that some dance chapters were written in 2001 is a painful thing to hear

[@cstevenross]

Omg this is a real deal PJ analysis and I love it

[@alex30425]

At this point George needs someone else to help him figure out the plot lines and tell him what to cut so we don’t have another Dance on our hands.

[@TheHammertime51]

ASoIaF content is my comfort content. I use it for escape and relaxation and for sleep. I won't stop listening anytime soon. I accept that Winds will not be published in GRRM's lifetime.

[@Ayoayoayoayoayoayoa]

We’ve really gotten to know George better in these years of waiting haven’t we

[@XellossBoi]

Thank you so much for this! Your analyses are such a breath of fresh air.

[@UnderBarrowBog]

Nothing but pessimism is a breath of fresh air?

[@OfficialArthusamakh]

Would've been cool to have a side note on the fanfic for comparison. I dunno where you're at now exactly but last time I guessed it felt like ending the AFFC/ADWD storylines and giving an update on the cliffhangers would take up something like 30-40% of Winds or so. And that's just like finishing the last 2 books really. Which leaves 'Winds proper' at the size of AGoT maybe? That's not much.

[@Nordy941]

Bro how you not gonna mention the New York Jets. Really the main reason we don’t have winds.

[@jrwilliams4029]

The WoW dilemna (sic) is vastly different and more challenging because it involves subverting human nature. I call it the Da Vinci syndrome which is a reference to the maestro’s penchant for not finishing his commissions only to take on a new project that piqued his interest. In point of fact many art historians postulate the “The Mona Lisa” is unfinished which underscores Da Vinci’s tendency to shirk a project when be lost interest or focus. GRRM exhibits this same boredom with ASOIAF which is his magnum opus tantamount to “The Mina Lisa” being Leonardo’s. Martin also has a plethora of new projects to pull him away from finishing what made him a household name. I would be astounded if Martin ever “fully” finishes TWOW, ADOS is simply out of the question.

[@Ollidor]

I firmly believe that 2028 is the year that the winds of winter will come out and i'm so certain about it that I made an empty space on my bookshelf next to ADWD. See you all in 2028

[@aripeters2412]

Bring me back here in 3 years 🫡

[@JohnnyRaven69]

I believe the year is 2026

[@jamesberkeley390]

2028 that’s pretty optimistic

[@Ollidor]

@ nah I’m very certain. 2028 is the year of TWOW. 2035 for the next dunk and egg novella written by GRRMBOT3000

[@faithrefer9852]

WE LOVE PRESTON! Preston if you see this I love your videos and appreciate your hard work!

[@maxmercer1931]

If George thinks he was in a Dany rut in A Dance with Dragons, wait until he finds out Dany is in the Dothraki Sea, RIGHT NOW

[@DownWithTheBees]

Good video, Preston. Reminds me of your earlier work. Keep it up. 💯

[@drakengarfinkel3133]

Your analysis also reveals what part of the Sweetrobin fanfic (it's amazing) feels the *least* like Martin's ASoIaF: Its speed. In order to, in AdmiralKird's words, "fit The Winds of Winter into The Winds of Winter," every chapter of the fanfic acts like its on a strict time budget and needs to end as many plotlines as possible. Because it is. And it does.

[@JimminyB]

03/04 were the Patriots back-to-back SB years when GRRM mysteriously lost the will to write. The 2008 Jon/Mel chapters align with the Giants going 12-4 and winning the division. Finishing Dance is right in the middle of their better years, including that weird Super Bowl Run just after Dance is released. Currently, the Giants gave up their star player to a hated divisional rival and now Giants fans get to watch their former beloved player go onto the Super Bowl. GRRM isn't going to be writing for a long time. Send tight tackle.

[@Gui101do]

Preston King! Preston King!

[@newchip35]

I didn't want to hear that! Also, thank you it was a fun listen.

[@ModuliOfRiemannSurfaces]

So much of the Dany and Tyrion stories in ADWD simply could have been condensed or deleted entirely.

[@Paul_Caruana]

Oh boy, just as I was getting slightly more optimistic after GRRM very latest blog post, the George whisperer comes along and pretty much slams shut a potential 2025 publication date 😅😅! Oh well, let’s hope for an unexpected, positive, surprise this year 🤞🤞

[@iksarguards]

The short answer is no. The long answer is nope.

[@brodyestes2376]

My fresh baked cookies whispered to me in my dreams that winds would be released this year

[@TortssMacKenzie]

What a fantastic video. I'd love to see you do an analysis of which parts of the ADWD Jon, Dany, and Tyrion stories could best be shortened. I just did a re-read and it felt like every other chapter from one of them could have been easily cut, combined, or trimmed.

[@tychoclavius4818]

Didn't he give you that exactly in this video?

[@kroniskparanoia]

Great video, Preston. Already looking forward to 2028 when you release the next update on GRRMs Winds of Winter progress. My prediction is that the totalt manusscript page count will have been reduced by 100 pages by then.

[@AUserName-fv8zj]

Only info with any accuracy: He's got 1500 pages of something done. Unknown whether he needs to rewrite any of that. The book probably needs splitting. There is a non-0% chance that it comes out in 2025, just as there is a non-0% chance it comes out in 2026, 2027... etc... At this point there is no 'more likely to come out in [year]'. The only time that changes is when he announces its release.

[@leftofyou]

I'm a prophet on this matter. 2025 is the year!

[@dmk_games]

We aren't even up to the WoW split yet.

[@B1RKSY]

I can not believe it's the year of our lord 20 frigging 25, and we STILL don't have this book. And there's another to come after this! I've officially accepted the blackpill We're never getting an ending bros.

[@sainttaint3585]

Tell us you’ve been smokin it up in a ancient Chinese copium den

[@Lfsnsmo1n]

Preston knows this content generates engagement, Father needs money after all those fanfic chapters

[@anakin007darth]

Whats your problem?

[@ranfan1820]

We'll get crabs in our bellies before George even thinks of finishing Winds

[@theAggrocag]

Excellent analysis, as always.

[@EdAnsbro]

Hey Preston great stuff, but hell yeah we’re getting “In the Lost Lands” in theaters!

[@BubblegumCrash332]

If you made a 10 hour video about George's writting progress I would watch

[@trendkillWLM]

Dang this is the best video I’ve seen on the topic. Hope you’re wrong

[@thekinghass]

I honestly believe you can write book about analysis of when the winds of winter will come and the best part you can annually edit it and release again

[@alexsnewhandle]

9:23 My God you can really see just how little happens in the entire book

[@SSSS-bn5hw]

TBH, at this point I just want there to be plans after a particular event that is inevitable, for there to be a one chapter release, every year for the next couple of decades, on GRRMs birthday. Would be the ultimate slow cooker of suspense and keep these stories relevant for years to come, give us something concrete to look forward to and debate and of course a great pipeline of content. Even if the story is incomplete, we won’t find out until the last chapter is rolled out 😂 Great video. His writing videos are fascinating

[@tomatotamale4546]

A great meta-story. Re-reading AFFC & ADWD his excitement about new POVs like the Ironborn & Martells is palpable, while Jon, Dany & Tyrion feel like slogs to get through. It's like he feels stuck in a stagnant relationship w/ them

[@sharpness7239]

I'm also suspecting that the effects of aging have made george's brain not work quite as smoothly as it did before for complex tasks so it's even harder than before.

[@blaineheaton7846]

Girth!

[@SHARKVADERS]

Winter Is NOT Coming

[@Clothy22]

In case you didn’t know. Like I haven’t been watching your videos for over a decade 😂

[@ztcgamer9652]

I’m legitimately curious to see what formed the winds of winter eventually takes Because no matter what the notes will be released I wonder who they would get to finish the story ?

[@wyomingptt]

I honestly think George will adamantly refuse the option to pasd the story to someone else. And he has no real family that would need the money.

[@chellybub]

Brandon Sanderson

[@craigmills6275]

It only tells us how bad it sucks that winds will never happen. Dance was such a fantastic book. It is time to lay ASOIAF to rest. I will continue to re-read the books every few years until I die I’m sure. Such a shame.

[@cellardoor4773]

I'm calling my shots. The Winds of Winter won't release in 2025. Also, there were too many folks that said that it would release in 2024. Needless to say, it never did.

[@ianpatterson6552]

Preston shadow writes the ending and gives it to Martin.

[@klindt5776]

You could view the mega prologue idea after he decided to get rid of the 5 year time jump as him adding 6 new pov characters in the iron islands and dorne to help him get out of his writers block after deciding to scrap the 5 year time jump, he now has around 20 povs, if he’s stuck with all of them we might have 40 povs by the end of winds …. lol

[@arvaakuka8568]

Is Walgrave a Florent considering his mother has a mustache?

[@anakin007darth]

Maybe we will have winds by 2029. Lets be optimistic!