If I’m Right On The 10-Year Yield, Watch How Bearish Everyone’s Going To Be | Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy.
In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation, including crypto.
Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system.
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
biancoresearch
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro
0:59 Macro picture
1:49 Stickier inflation
4:27 Bifurcated economy
6:06 Interest rate policy outlook
7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political
9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5%
12:00 The Fed doesn’t change policy in the summer up to election day
13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5%
19:59 Demographics
24:01 Bitcoin ETF
31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million
34:10 Parting thoughts
#economy #stockmarket #bitcoin

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hey everyone! I'm so happy to welcome Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, back on the pod for episode 165! Please join me in the comment section with your feedback. Thanks so much for your support and watching my channel. You all really are the nicest people on the internet.💙Julia

[@georgelien]

Jim is the Red Pill

[@mjbucar]

An excellent guest speaker. I always enjoy listening to the realistic insights of Jim Bianco.

[@LouisJanYoung]

Jim is the best!!!

[@davidcpugh8743]

Julia show pure gold. Keep it growing!

[@MonteRosa849]

Excellent discussion. Love to listen to the wisdom of Jim Bianco! Thank you.

[@marcfd3756]

Great guest! Great interviewing by letting Jim go into lengthy explanations without interrupting! Well done!

[@davidbenson553]

Jim Bianco.is one of the best commentator, much better than another grumpy old man

[@davidcpugh8743]

Long time practitioner of investing and economics. Seen this movie. Great series of interviews by knowledgeable practitioners.

[@4000angels]

Excellent interview as always. Thank you.

[@pete7674]

Thoughtful questions make for an excellent interview. Thank you for your efforts.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

How can you honestly think they can cut rates? They are too low

[@petergodfrey4783]

The problem with the analysis is that it is predicated on the government providing honest data. Who can trust them at this point?

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊

[@stephtraveler7378]

Love the show and format.

[@amandagreen8898]

Jim is the 👑

[@davidcpugh8743]

Very interesting

[@bondtrader8567]

Great work sir

[@mc-kz8zn]

Appreciate Jim's thoughts on bitcoin. 100% agree his callout on the lost narrative. However, he needs to know that building out the infrastructure for mainstream adoption is really hard, and 15yrs is barely scratching the surface. It will get there, but will require a lot of capital, there will be lots of lawsuits, and technical hurdles. But none of those detract from the fact that bitcoin is the first manner to transact value without a 3rd party in the history of humankind, and that is very profound.

[@msims6054]

And to his point that bitcoin flourishes in a weak dollar setting .. well yes that’s the whole point. Bitcoin showed up just as the world needed an alternative to the dollar , this is a feature not a bug

[@galandoftruth6730]

Good video!!!

[@larrybarken8443]

Great guest

[@Barr894]

Look at the rate at which bond yields are going up. Huge momentum. They will easily pass 5.5 percent.

[@1301thecolony]

I watched a youtube vid showing a transaction in Singapore I think. It took 2 different cellphone transaction along with a couple of other cash register transaction. 2 minutes compared to Visa or Apple Pay? 5 Sec.? 10?

[@fredcrossman5133]

Bitcon

[@fredcrossman5133]

"As a global payments network Visa has the capacity to execute more than 65,000 transactions per second."

[@Ascendsean35]

Loving the fixed income returns. Especially for those of us lucky enough to have 30 yr fixed mortages at low rates. It's about as bulletproof as you can get

[@dabronx340]

We are in peak layoff period . For over a year layoffs have driven the loss of full time positions in favor of part time positions. So part time employment is driving the cooked unemployment numbers. No one want to pay healthcare so we are defaulting to a 30 hour work week

[@eu7435]

Bitcoin and gold ETFs are in Roth retirement accounts because ppl do not want to pay the government 50% of their appreciation in taxes. Sorry if that reinforces "Centralization", Jim.

[@Julie.Cohen1]

So years from now BTC will reach a Mil, I think a lot has changed since Blackrock and other whales have come into the crypto market. I'm still not sold that the 4 year cycles hasn't changed or will change. I think BTC will hit the million dollar mark before 2032. Also, we're not granted to see tomorrow, I purchase BTC now and and actively trade,I make sure my children have BTC stored away but I plan to make my millions way before then BTC hit a million by trading....managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.4Bitcoin to a decent 18Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@travisb442]

Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!

[@JonathanSumaray]

The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….

[@flushrock]

This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.

[@JorgeGetas]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@ptitridon]

It really helped trading with Francine Duguay analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..

[@davidcpugh8743]

Fed is political! Majority of voting governors are president appointees. FDIC facing continuing bank meltdowns like first republicans. Plus impact on non banks. Getting interesting out there. This could scare Federal Reserve?

[@thefireman285]

The FED is the Bolshevic tribe.

[@rickpearl1529]

My ultra short term bond fund is having a good year...6+%

[@masterDarcy13]

When you ask them about the" macro picture", can you ask them what they think it will be like in 18 months E.G. Interest rates, GDP, employment,, Dollar,. get how hard guessing the future is , but just idea of how everyone is thinking would be insightful as nearly all finance channels speak what has just happened or what will happen a long time in the future.

[@markreid7]

Not an expert but I see 18 months now being pretty good overall as I think infiation is down to at or right under 2% so rates should be about 6.0 or 5.75 on mortgages and that spurs the economy as well as companies being able to borrow. I think it will be pretty round for a year though. Slow growth but inflation will very slowly drop imo.

[@markreid7]

Betting odds now has it over 50% to have cut in Sept and Nov.

[@asafprivman]

What about stagflation? Last time you both talked about it, I thought there would be an update on whether he sees it coming

[@asafprivman]

😢

[@dabronx340]

The federal government has possession of 400k BTC . When BTC is $500k they should peg the dollar to 2000 sats. That will cover the entire US money supply easily. You’ll need to end the Fed and fractional banking along with stopping the printing bubble f money. Open a BTC window at the treasury like the old gold window at the Fed. That will stop inflation and convert the future at dollar to hard money. It leaves the rest of the world room to adjust their currencies relative to the US dollar and indirectly to BTC.

[@dinosgura]

Julia😍

[@Ballistichydrant]

Two percent to three percent is a fifty percent difference. It’s definitely a big deal

[@brianpereira7483]

Especially when its really 10%

[@walterblake1]

What Jim doesn't know is that 87% of bitcoin is in private wallets amd 1% is in the whole ETF world. The rest of the 12% is held by exchanges. Jim... you need to get some sleep buddy

[@fredcrossman5133]

Buffett and Munger: "It's a ponzi scheme-rat poison." But what do they know?

[@1301thecolony]

Jim you're right but 5-5-1/2 won't do it in this environment. Inflation is closer to 20% than 2%.

[@therighteous802]

Gotta love people pulling percentages out of thin air to sound smart. He says 10-20% max of rate cut until nov. I'll take that 5:1 bet.

[@rof8200]

Bonds are the things which the government will use to distribute losses over the next decade.

[@raymond_rnt]

I'm 35 and about to buy my second investment property. Going to be finishing up my current one and selling this fall or next spring. Worst case I rent it out and pay the note no the next one with the income. Other than that I have gold, silver, and like $35k in mutual funds in IRAs I don't touch. I don't want anything to do with stocks anymore. Lost my ass on crypto in 2022. I have money in a HYS at 5%. I understand real estate. I'll stick to working on houses.

[@KapteeniKaaos]

Good for you, man. Just be careful with leverage.

[@brianpereira7483]

@@KapteeniKaaosexactly but if he does it within his means, he will be ok

[@jjvaldes1]

The average of s%P 500 is not 8%, wrong data

[@jjvaldes1]

Debasment plus inflation is 12% ,bonds will lose a lot of money

[@randywhelchel4674]

He has Missed when the Fed said 4% unemployment and POOF rate CUT we are .01 away from that point in time 😳😳😳

[@MARTINA-gc3tq]

Real inflation is well over 5%……interest rates will be going up not down.

[@jjvaldes1]

he needs more study of btc

[@dabronx340]

The jobs numbers are cooked every month and haven’t be adjusted downward after 2 months every month. So the top line numbers BS.

[@POSNER001]

Singles and doubles

[@Bagged_UP]

He does know that when we say boomer we don't literally mean the baby boomer generation but any older person right?

[@Kristofur77]

Over half the people now 61 live above eighty, you make it sound like they're all gonna be gone at eighty

[@Resmith18SR]

Most of them will.😂

[@Kristofur77]

@Resmith18SR I just looked at an actuarial table. If you're 61, the odds, are you gonna live to 82. The older you get, the more likely you're going to live past 80

[@Resmith18SR]

@@Kristofur77 And so what?

[@maxwolf8055]

🤣👉 Funny guy without knowledge of economy and finance

[@spencerme3486]

“I’m long Bitcoin…” Haha, not listening any further. Bye

[@sankalp3513]

The Fed is doing their best not to raise rates to help Joe Brandon

[@randywhelchel4674]

He has Missed when the Fed said 4% unemployment and POOF rate CUT we are .01 away from that point in time 😳😳😳

[@randywhelchel4674]

He has Missed when the Fed said 4% unemployment and POOF rate CUT we are .01 away from that point in time 😳😳😳