9-17-24 Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn’t

Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, to be concluded with the latest interest rate announcement. Markets' expectations are for a half-percent cut; could a quarter-percent cut create disappointment on Wall Street? Microsoft announces and increase in its dividend payment (very different from a stock buy back). Kamala Harris' plans to raise taxes on corporations is in fact an crease in taxes on consumers; corporations are tax collectors for the government. Markets' rally in anticipation of Fed day tomorrow. The stock buyback window begins to close today ahead of the next earnings season, removing some of the lift to markets. Lance and Jonathan discuss the pro's an con's of momentum investing (with charts); answers to chatroom and email questions on purchasing ETF's and Treasuries, and the uniquely Texan phrase, going "whole hog." Lance defends comments on the Value of the Dollar vs purchasing power of the dollar (with charts), referenced to article on "Conviction" (link is found below). Investing in Gold, pro's and con's, doesn't have to be an all-or-none proposition.
3:18 - Fed Rate Cut Decision Expectations
14:32 - Momentum Investing Works on the Way Up...
30:18 - ETF Purchasing Philosophy & Post-Fed Treasuries
44:32 - The Value of the Dollar vs Purchasing Power
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge, Until It Doesn’t"
realinvestment...
"Conviction (Or How To Lose A Lot Of Money In Investing)"
realinvestment...
"Market Risks We Are Watching"
realinvestment...
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Prep for Fed Day" is here:
• 9-17-24 Markets Prep f...
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Our previous show is here: "Market Risks We Are Watching"
• 9-16-24 Market Risks W...
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Get more info & commentary:
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#MomentumInvesting #FedDecision2024 #InflationOutlook #StockMarketUpdate #InvestmentInsights #MarketAnalysis #RecessionFears #FinancialPlanning #EconomicTrends #PortfolioStrategy #InterestRateHikes
#Treasuries #Dollar #Gold #Markets #Money #Investing

[@cossack1277]

Remind us everyday to hit the like button

[@HODIUSDUDE]

Good talk on cyclical and defensive assets.

[@spotsonadog]

I work in a survey based industry and have found that I have to remind people to fill it out every single time (otherwise it's only the complainers completing one) :) . Great show .

[@Jalleur14325]

Jonathan is a very patient man! But I will forgive Lance for "hogging" the airtime for that great gold vs stocks analysis. Schiff makes no bones in pumping his gold funds - or expressing pretty chauvanistic views!

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Lance, you're correct with your USD explanation but confusing the issue for your audience with semantics. We need to distinguish price from value. The purchasing power of the US$ is shrinking continuously due to inflation/currency depreciation, that's what most people equate with value. However the exchange rate price of the US$ relative to other currencies varies cyclically, usually with secular trends due to trade and capital imbalances, central bank policy, inflation, and tax policy. The US$ will likely increase in exchange rate value due to the centripetal forces of US Fed policies and UST fiscal policies. As you say, the US$ is the least dirty shirt in the laundry. As always, a great daily review of markets...

[@antcz13]

I bought EPRT back in February and I’m up 30% and it has a $0.29 per share dividend

[@Denver_365]

Liked❤

[@jameshearttech]

I always give you guys a like.

[@originalfred66]

Mortgage REITs have been horrible long term investments. Maybe you can get lucky and time them right, but why even try? It is best simply avoid long term losers. There are plenty other investments out there. Mortgage REITs are a flawed financial scheme.

[@Mr._Rick]

I thought other countries are lowering their exposure to US treasuries and buying gold due to lowering trust that US will sanction or take treasuries after Russia in 2021.

[@Jalleur14325]

They are. The Western world is still not investing large scale yet though. When the west starts investing the price will really spike

[@JustBob-sw4rf]

First you state that the dollar purchases significantly less today than it did in 1900. But, in the next breath you say, “The value of the dollar is not declining.” Talk about contradictory statements. Yes, the dollar isn’t declining relative to other fiat currencies. Yes, global capital flows are still gravitating to the dollar and the dollar isn’t being abandoned, as the fear mongers say. But based on that you can’t say, the dollar isn’t losing value. Lance is starting to sound like an MMT advocate.

[@karlbork6039]

51:40

[@Jorgie1944]

Trumps "tax cuts" increased my working class relatives' income taxes by 10%.

[@theb190experience9]

Cut mine. 🤔

[@originalfred66]

Kind of impossible. The tax percentage dropped, and the standard deduction increased a lot.

[@Jorgie1944]

@originalfred66 it's not impossible, it happened. Straight forward ez file return for someone with uncomplicated finances.

[@pdureska7814]

Kackles and Walz with the same old democratic theme "higher taxes." They have the economic sense of a 2 year old. Look what their "economic plan" has brought the past 3 and 1/2 years. Pain and suffering.

[@Erikpdx]

All that post-Trump pain and suffering? He's the only one whose policies have actually impacted the economy. What do you think kamala has done? You haven't thought this out

[@Erikpdx]

Deficit was higher under Trump. Democrats always have to clean up your "great" economic policies

[@Erikpdx]

Post-Trump pain and suffering*

[@Erikpdx]

So corporate taxes hurts shareholders, and Lance thinks that hurts the bottom 50% of the economy the hardest? Who does he think owns most of the stocks? Sometimes his conservative bias can't help ooze out

[@Jalleur14325]

Well he did say that inflation hits the lowest income the hardest too. But yes conservative bias often comes out!

[@MainCharacterEnergy1]

He stated the taxes get passed along to the consumers in the form of higher costs, which disproportionately affects the lower class. Unless you’re expecting apple and Starbucks to eat the increased costs on your iPhones and Frappuccinos

[@Erikpdx]

@@MainCharacterEnergy1 I don't remember getting lower prices when Trump lowered taxes for corporations. If corporations have pricing power, why aren't they already raising prices? The reality is their earnings change, not their prices.

[@energyfitness5116]

Shareholder value drops, jobs will be cut. Gov rill create guvment jobs and raise taxes to fund them essentially creating jobs that dont produce much. Economy slows. Also, higher taxes on corps, share value drops, pensions lose value.

[@energyfitness5116]

@@Erikpdx The world deglobalized and supply lines shifted during the lockdown. ALso the government injected, what? $3Trillion into the economy? Its all a convoluted mess.