2025 Oscar Predictions - Best Picture & more | December 2024

[@kylejohnson4615]

The Award Expert app is such a joy, and makes following the awards race so much easier and more fun!

[@TheGoldenChild23]

I love when you call your brother "buddy" affectionately. That is so sweet.

[@dayvaughnmonroe9540]

I think Ariana Grande’s oscar clip should be from “No one mourns the wicked” the layered acting was superb, it caught me off guard

[@monkeyangelo717]

@@dayvaughnmonroe9540 DUDE, same! I was caught off guard to immediately feeling emotional. Knowing the story, there’s so much subtle pain and sadness in that opening number when she’s singing. The film immediately won me over.

[@jonathanblaze1648]

Nah. The clip should be trying to make a ball gown with the training wand and moving closer and closer to the ground. Hilarious.

[@dayvaughnmonroe9540]

@ so funny, but if they want a clip that shows more of her acting then NOMTW will do better

[@jjtitan27]

Tbh her clip is the dance scene. She gives so much emotion without saying anything. And it’s when her character arc shifts and thus the arc of the story in the 2nd act

[@pb.j.1753]

How about her scoring that nomination first

[@friendlypup5650]

The Brutalist definitely looks like a Revenant to me. Actor, director, cinematography. But add score too. And maybe loses picture to something with better consensus

[@brandonroy7554]

Peeps saying how scared they are for Wicked possibly winning awards is kind of hilarious to me. I went into Wicked thinking I would have a fun time but not love it as much as I am. The sheer amount of work and care put into it should be respected.

[@shaneth138]

Its really not that good of a movie though so...

[@LeeBeeDeeTree51]

I'm old enough to remember what the internet buzz on the movie "Chicago" was like when it opened over 20 years ago. "Chicago" like "Wicked," was a highly anticipated adaptation of a beloved stage musical. Some in Hollywood were skeptical that making Chicago's musical numbers figments of Roxie Hart's imagination would work as a story device. Basically, it was seen as a desperate attempt to attract movie-goers who say they hate musicals because people don't spontaneously break out in song and dance in real life. But the movie got positive if not swooning reviews and was a commercial hit. In fact, its surprising commercial success brought on a bit of an online backlash. Even folks who liked the film began to snipe that while it was an enjoyable, well-crafted film, it couldn't hold a candle to the great musicals of the past. When it won best picture, many film people chalked it up to nothing more than Academy members showing some affection for musicals, a sorely missed genre that people had apparently forgotten how to make and that audiences no longer liked. The parallels Wicked has with Chicago are uncanny. Both are film adaptations of popular long-running Broadway shows that weren't made until decades after they first appeared on stage. Both projects were said to be impossible to be made into a film. Both films were met with skeptical musical fans who took issue with casting choices. Both got better reviews than was expected. And both faced backlash when folks began discussing them as awards contenders and the films started to rake in cash. I think some people underestimate how much industry professionals in general, like the musical genre, especially when they are made with old-school movie craftsmanship as was done in the case of Wicked.

[@MagnitudeReviews]

We’ve also been so far removed from a musical Best Picture winner, that it kinda feels like if one is due. We got incredibly close for a La La Land win. But Wicked could just be the film to do it. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was able to cross the finish line in this wide open year of a race.

[@Theodora7]

Yes. Absolutely. The parallels to Chicago are hard to miss. And looking back, I think Chicago was a great winner. One of my favorites. Wicked would be the same. Also all the boomers I know are going crazy for wicked. That's usually a good sign for Oscar voters

[@sreyangovender3404]

Wicked is half a movie- no way its winning

[@LeeBeeDeeTree51]

@@sreyangovender3404 Good point. But I still think that Oscar prognosticators underestimate the affection MANY Academy members have for genre films like musicals.

[@kassiogomes8498]

The Academy is nothing like it was in 2002. They have international voters these days. International people do not care for Wicked. Wait for BAFTAs' nominations. Wicked will being its descend there.

[@singstreetcar5881]

Sean baker is the writer,director,editor and producer of anora, so he will get 4 oscar nominations for himself Best picture Best director Best editing Best screenplay

[@nickcopeland6915]

I think Original Screenplay is his best shot.

[@pb.j.1753]

I want Brutalist to win everything 🤞🏽

[@amirleo2051]

Is it better than Oppenheimer?

[@pb.j.1753]

@@amirleo2051i personally liked it way more than Oppenheimer

[@idokny]

@@pb.j.1753 Since best picture is chosen via a preferential ballot, it makes most sense that it will win Best Picture.

[@ThisApp]

@@amirleo2051 the second half drags a lot more than the brilliant first half

[@oskari7121]

Watch out for I'm Still Here. The movie is a major crowdpleaser and has a good shot at Actress and Adapted Screenplay nominations.

[@olegadocinematografico_]

The movement here in Brazil about this film is crazy, it's like our own blockbuster, we haven't seen this in like 14 years or something with a national movie (unfortunately, many brazilian people marginalize our cinema, which is sad btw)

[@patrickorourke3710]

The substance should break into best picture lineup for the Oscars!

[@Sharpe1502]

It’s gonna. International voters love it.

[@DerOgraf]

Keiner der Filme bleibt für die Filmgeschichte, vielleicht dann doch letztlich Wicked, dank komplizierter Zeiten

[@kassiogomes8498]

​@@Sharpe1502do they?

[@Gojoseon]

Why? I thought it was a grotesque farce even if it had some good ideas.

[@ithapllai12]

Conclave: best actor, best supporting actor/actress, best picture, best director, cinematography, best sound design, best costume

[@luciennedespota909]

For those of you who liked Sing Sing, the Taviani Brothers produced a prison based Shakespeare theater club in Italy called "Caesar Must Die" 2013. It's more a documentary but just as profound.

[@nicoleann0703]

Completely agree with your top 3 Best Picture noms. As far as Wicked, I wish that either that movie, Anora, or the Brutalist would win picture (still haven't seen Anora or The Brutalist as I usually wait until I can rent since I'm not a critic but I can't wait to see those both, too); - I would be happy with any of those even though I agree with your assertions that Wicked winning picture may be a stretch. (As far as Wicked, I was really impressed with Ariana Grande too, on all accounts. As a huge fan of the play, it was a masterpiece for me and I loved the pacing of the movie better than the play as it was easier to follow along .. also I was bawling during that Elphaba/Glinda dance scene when the character was getting bullied- that's the first time in a theatre in a long time that I couldn't control my tears... Lol). I can't wait to see Nickel Boys, too, and will also see A Complete Unknown in theatres... def agree with the Timothee nom for sure.

[@ad-sd-vids5332]

Rip to The End and The Supremes at earls all you can eat being in your top 10 in march

[@jurney3478]

@@ad-sd-vids5332 the second it became a Hulu exclusive it was disqualified.

[@mauriciojavierrodriguezvel5606]

I will loved that the Oscar winner for Best Picture been between "Anora" or "Wicked". Either of thise deserve best picture.

[@sreyangovender3404]

You mean Wicked part 1

[@bradmuse]

the average age of oscar voters is 63, A Complete Unknown has a way better chance than The Substance or Emilia Perez

[@idokny]

@@bradmuse Which is the exact reason I’m also curious to see if Anora indeed gets all the love people expect, or if it does “ok” because there might be older voters who wouldn’t understand what the hype is about. (I personally love the film)

[@JoshAragon]

Emilia Perez is not getting Oscar love

[@kassiogomes8498]

Not anymore. That stat is incredibly outdated.

[@idokny]

@ What’s the current stat and where do you get that info from?

[@kassiogomes8498]

@@idokny there's no current stat. The academy doesn't reveal its demographics anymore because of #OscarsSoWhite. But this number (63yo) is from 2014. Eleven years ago, when the academy had around 6000 members. Now it has 11000 members. They started expanding in 2016, adding international voters. I doubt the age average is that high. They gave best picture to EEAAO.

[@pb.j.1753]

Emilia Perez backlash in full swing with 3.1 rating on Letterboxd lol. Even Bohemian Rhapsody did better with 3.4, Green Book 3.8

[@Themeparkanxiety]

I couldn’t get through that film.

[@kassiogomes8498]

Why?

[@Alan-fd5py]

I don't see Anora winning BP, honestly. I'm the only person I know so far who found it just to be okay. I truly felt it was a bit thin and emotionally flat. I can appreciate the screenplay for sure and the acting is insane but I think the Brutalist is most likely to end up winning as of now. And I'm not saying Anora won't win just because I didn't like it as much, I genuinely think it doesn't check as many boxes as The Brutalist. Thoughts?

[@mikegonzalez503]

I saw Anora and conclave and don't think either are worthy of a best picture.

[@Theodora7]

Yeah I absolutely cannot see anora winning best picture. At all.

[@pb.j.1753]

„I‘m the only person I know so far“ 😂 ok

[@Alan-fd5py]

@pb.j.1753 What's funny, buddy?

[@Alan-fd5py]

@@mikegonzalez503 Not who you want but, who do you think will win then?

[@axr7149]

I think WICKED is this year's DUNE 1/MAD MAX FURY ROAD in terms of getting nominated in a lot of categories and sweeping the technical awards but fail to win above-the-line (I think it could win anywhere from 2 to 4 Oscars, all in technical categories).

[@DARKgirafa]

Wicked winning technical over Dune 2?

[@axr7149]

@@DARKgirafa I think WICKED wins Production Design and Costume Design at the very least and is a strong contender for Makeup and VFX. That is 4 categories right there.

[@tweentycenturyrock]

​​@@axr7149at best it will win Costume, but 'Gladiator II' and 'Dune 2' has better costumes. Production design is going to 'The Brutalist', Makeup goes to 'The Substance', and VFX to 'Kingdom of The Planet of The Apes'.

[@jurney3478]

​@@axr7149its not winning makeup. They LOVE prosthetics and wicked doesn't really have any. Remember when The Whale won? Makeup is either The Substance or Dune 2.

[@axr7149]

@@jurney3478 don’t forget the category is called Makeup & Hair. It could win just for the latter alone. MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM won this category, as has LES MISERABLES. Also POOR THINGS just recently.

[@georgialerangis2123]

Thank you for such interesting observations. IMO- TIMMY & Edward Norton may WIN, also think Demi Moore might surprise and defeat Mickey Madison. Glad you liked Chalamet film.

[@user-bz1sy9vs6k]

Absolutely love the new app!! Happy to support you guys :)

[@KikeNavarrete68]

It’s funny how 21 years later we were having the exact same conversation people had with Chicago, and that movie won best picture

[@WDESJ3]

I think you guys brought up a great point about Wicked at the end that needs to be explored more, that Wicked is a part one. With things like Joker 2 fresh in mind, it would be insanely embarrassing to award part one Best Picture with the possibility that pt2 isn't as good, if not better. It's certainly top five but I can see a path for Anora, Brutalist, Conclave, Sing Sing, or Sep 5 as preferential ballot picks.

[@theprime6439]

I feel like personally the brutalist is frontrunner due to its epic scale but 🤷‍♂️

[@jurney3478]

That didn't help Power of the Dog

[@theprime6439]

@ yeah but power of the dog wasn’t a 4 hour literal epic

[@cinemacola6398]

What movie would you compare The Brutalist to? I'm curious because it seems interesting, but that runtime is making me hesitant. Hopefully every scene has something to it.

[@theprime6439]

@@cinemacola6398 it’s like a Paul Thomas Anderson kinda film a bit like there will be blood

[@cinemacola6398]

Oh, I love There will be blood. That's definitely sells it. Lol.

[@aaronjanlistanco]

I'm seeing this 2025 awards season is has split winner in the Best Picture & Best Director..

[@ChrolliForever]

Brutalist and ANORA then please

[@ithapllai12]

And conclave

[@greghaus]

After Demi Moore's Hot Ones appearance, I think we are going to see some serious campaigning for The Substance and it could really surprise with nominations this awards season despite how bonkers the film is. It is one of my personal favorites, so I have hope. I honestly don't get the hype for Anora & Conclave for a Best Picture win. Mikey Madison is the strongest aspect of Anora, but the film itself drags in the 2nd act and the ending is going to be polarizing for voters. Conclave just didn't grab me at all, but I believe it is still getting multiple nominations. I don't see a clear frontrunner for the Best Picture win right now, although I personally would love Dune: Part 2 to take it. I also really enjoyed Wicked, but I think that hype will fade. Although I haven't seen Sing Sing yet, if A25 does a successful December push, maybe it will surprise the way CODA did. Also, I'm totally loving the Awards Expert app.

[@luisc1703]

Yeah, IF Demi gets in that’s because she has a real shot at winning, she has a strong narrative

[@pb.j.1753]

Yeah. No campaigning has been conducted for that movie until Hot Ones 🤡

[@johnnolan5579]

I agree with you completely about Anora. Much preferred The Substance, Sing Sing, Wicked. Have yet to see The Brutalist.

[@greghaus]

@@pb.j.1753 Demi has been campaigning a lot, but I only bring up Hot Ones because it is shows she's not slowing down.

[@George_Nakhle]

Really hoping 'Look Back' can sneak a nom, even tho the animation category is super stacked. Probably my favourite of the year

[@nadinepineault9407]

The app is awesome! It works great!

[@TheCatIndeed]

Wicked and Anora are my two favorite films of the year that I’ve yet seen so I’m pretty happy however this Best Picture race turns out. Still need to see Sing Sing, The Brutalist, Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown and The Substance, which I really regret not checking out in theaters.

[@dahomey2001]

Kinda ironic how people see Wicked as critique of fascism and racism When the main producer and awards campaigner of the film Marc Platt, denounced Jonathan Glazer’s speech about Gaza and tried to get Boots Riley, a black director, dropped from his agency, for openly supporting Palestine. He himself is a fascist

[@singstreetcar5881]

Isn't he Ben platt's dad?

[@dahomey2001]

@@singstreetcar5881 yes

[@RB-.-]

Who cares leave this woke stuff out

[@dahomey2001]

@@RB-.- wicked has "woke" narratives, so should we leave wicked out of the race too?

[@RB-.-]

@@dahomey2001 just Erivo

[@PikaYoshi21]

Wicked would need an editing nomination and at least one of director or screenplay. And those nominations are a longshot

[@Theodora7]

I really don't think either are longshots. Especially screenplay. Does everyone forget coda? Screenplay WINNERS can often be a stretch

[@tweentycenturyrock]

My prediction Best Picture - 1. Anora 2. The Brutalist 3. Conclave 4. Dune 2 5. Emilia Perez 6. Sing Sing 7. Nickel Boys 8. Wicked 9. The Substance 10. The Room Next Door Best International Film 1. Emilia Perez (France) 2. The Seed of The Sacred Fig (Germany) 3. I'm Still Here (Brazil) 4. The Girl With The Needle (Denmark) 5. How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)

[@TheClubOrtiz]

After seeing it, I can’t imagine RND getting in

[@tiki1750]

Worried for RND, Substance and Nickel Boys

[@nafischowdhury7375]

I think A Real Pain is in top 8 atp.

[@-datrandomdude-6979]

Im just happy to see Look Back being acknowledged at 6 in animated feature. even tho it has not chance in hell to get in, its one of my favorite movie this year and im crossing my fingers that it manages to somehow push one of them out (which one tho? idk lmao).

[@aidanmchutchison567]

As much as I would *love* The Substance to get into Picture, Director & Actress, I’m being super conservative about it & only have it in for Makeup and Hair & that’s it. I’m personally waiting for the guilds to see if they go for it before I can predict it anywhere else

[@dxvidmcgurk]

The Substance needs in!!! It won’t win but it deserves the nomination, fabulous film

[@manantial773]

I loved Anora, but it is time to be real, it has no real depth (with the exception of the very, very last scene that shows how women like Anora are not used to receive real affection by men), so I am not sure that people that love real movies, will prefer it over Wicked.

[@VinelSeason]

Wicked at #2 is baffling to me

[@iamsoverybored878]

Barbie got better reviews.

[@Rash23215]

I know..... it should be #1

[@arcaea_guy]

The metacritic critics score is quite low at 73

[@zakuraiyadesu]

Love the videos, man. Keep it up!!!

[@mudstyle5288]

Man they look alike the most here

[@ktom5262]

Hmm, English much?

[@mudstyle5288]

@@ktom5262 *Do you speak English much?

[@pb.j.1753]

Black Box Diaries is an incredible film. Searing and unforgettable.

[@jja8750]

My whole thing with Wicked is this: Yes, it's a Part One. Yes, it has funky lighting, at times. Yes, plenty of males in AMPAS won't go for it. Having said all of that, no other film, thus far, has ignited so much interest & passion and, in what's considered a kinda weak-ish year with 'frontrunners' that don't seem to be connecting with general audiences ... I wonder.

[@sreyangovender3404]

You're living in a bubble. No one outside the US cares about Wicked

[@jja8750]

@@sreyangovender3404 This is a good point. Though, I do read that it's doing very well in the UK. But good point. That matters, too.

[@benjamintillema3572]

​@@sreyangovender3404 But the Academy Awards is pretty much an American award show for American films.

[@flynnnolen1067]

Johnny Cash was played by Boyd Holbrook, not Alessandro Nivola in A Complete Unknown

[@haroldandmod]

Was gonna say this too..

[@nms7872]

How could a race still be this open with 1 month till the years end? Crazy. 2 years ago this time, EEAAO was an obvious winner. 1 year ago, same for Oppenheimer.

[@breksen]

Quite frankly it's because this year is significantly weaker than the previous two years

[@noteliassmith]

Sometimes the BP race is as open-ended as an acting category. CODA, Parasite, Green Book, and Moonlight were upsets in their years

[@jurney3478]

@@noteliassmith but we still had presumed frontrunners those years at this point. PotD was far and away ahead of the field. Roma was the front runner for a good while and let's not pretend La La Land wasn't the front runner until Oscar night.

[@jurney3478]

@@nms7872 it's bizarre. Anora would feel so much safer to predict foe BP if it were just slightly less Sean Baker (not a slight. Just an observation on what the academy gravitates towards) or if he'd been able to break in to even just screenplay for The Florida Project. Brutalist feels too cold. Wicked too commercial. Something has to give somewhere.

[@nms7872]

@@jurney3478 agree. The most acclaimed movie just hasn't been commercially big enough. The most commercial.movie (wicked ) just isn't what wins best picture. Something in the middle? I'm not forgetting dune. I just don't see a part 2 getting best picture

[@rachel_dawn_amber]

I’m Still Here should get a nomination for Best Picture and Best Actress

[@Lakejones18]

Kinda crazy how most of the nominations will most likely be for musical films this year

[@nms7872]

Emilia perez and wicked. Thats 2.

[@Lakejones18]

@ im counting a complete unknown in it, like a good portion of acting noms could go to those 3 movies

[@DanielRester]

Every film but one to win the World Cinema Documentary Jury Award at Sundance the past 8 years has gone on to an Oscar nomination. So don't underestimate 'A New Kind of Wilderness.'

[@singstreetcar5881]

When the academy pushes zoe saldana out of the supporting actress category cause she has more screen time than the lead and forces her to compete in best lead actress category

[@shadysorkin9214]

They should she is very clearly the lead character in the movie.

[@nate-it9xq]

if they were inclined to do this they would’ve done it every other time this has happened

[@cherswigmaker]

@@nate-it9xqwell, they did it at least with Kate Winslet back in 08. Not saying the will do it this time but there’s a precedent

[@nate-it9xq]

@ *A* precedent sure, but why would they undercut Gascon like that?

[@jurney3478]

@@cherswigmaker big difference in general there. Kate had two films in contention and no co star competition for either slot. I seriously doubt the academy would want to undermine a potential historic nom for Garcon

[@flynnnolen1067]

The Looney Tunes movie opens wide on February 28th 2025, so I can’t imagine that would be seen enough to be nominated. That’s like a week before the Oscar ceremony even happens. I don’t think it’ll drum up enough buzz before nominations happen

[@arcaea_guy]

It is quite challenging for a kids movie to be in best picture

[@sheldong1031]

Nice work!

[@roxy5588]

I am hoping Wicked at least gets nominated for best picture and a supporting actress nomination for Ariana Grande. Her performance was phenomenal. Part 2 may get the dominant performanace in 2026.

[@anthonywilliams2231]

The Last time all 5 SAG ensemble nominees were nominated for best picture was 10 years ago so I would be careful going with that predicted lineup. Anora to me seems like the classic film that could miss since no one from that movie is super well known and the movie is marketing itself as the Mikey Madison show

[@Theodora7]

as someone who didn't like wicked the first time i saw it (in 3d, it looked bad) and loved it the second time I saw it (looked much better), I think that it can withstand backlash. repeat viewings improve it significantly. it actually really really holds up. and the good parts about it (ARIANA GRANDE) get even better.

[@DrMichaelJAdams]

Ariana Grande had one of the weakest performances I have seen in my whole life. If anything, she is one of the worst parts of it.

[@bitchchile]

@@DrMichaelJAdams well you might just be an idiot.

[@Theodora7]

Well I'm sorry to say you will be disappointed at the Oscars this year if you feel that way. ​@@DrMichaelJAdams

[@PolarianSymphony]

​@@DrMichaelJAdams did the Emilia Pérez team pay you to post this?

[@Raghy07]

Saturday Night top 15 looks crazy

[@mrjoker5087]

Like exorcit or getout ... nosferatu can nominate for best picture ... amazing movie

[@aaronjanlistanco]

Wicked might be the CODA of this awards season...

[@Sharpe1502]

I think Lord of the Rings would be a better comparison since they all end in cliffhangers with the exception of the third one and they were also made at the same time/were released within a year of each other. Additionally, both films created sets that are going to become iconic in film. They’re also the rare fantasy epic movie that is taken seriously by the academy.

[@nafischowdhury7375]

they are most definitely not the same... also CODA was an anomaly.

[@nms7872]

CODA a small independent movie bought from Sundance? These are not the same

[@RodneyDollar]

That seems fair

[@RB-.-]

Sing Sing is the closest thing to CODA

[@Shane-jg6pr]

I find it funny everyone fears Wicked winning, but can’t collectively point to one other movie that “deserves” it more. Can’t wait for everyone to get more and more pissed off next year! I think it’s going to over perform in nominations alone and that will shock everyone.

[@ZlatanHu.]

Anora The Brutalist Conclave Sing Sing Dune II Nickel Boys The Substance Real Pain just to name a few that are waaaaaaay more deserving than Wicked 😁

[@Sharpe1502]

⁠@@ZlatanHu. Explain why those are more deserving. Specifically Dune II.

[@aidanobrien6156]

​@@Sharpe1502 For me specifically, The Brutalist does everything for me in terms of editing, cinematography, and pacing better than Wicked. Plus I thought Brady Corbets direction and the acting were leagues above with the exception of Cynthia Erivo who was excellent.

[@DrMichaelJAdams]

@@Sharpe1502 The Substance, for instance, had two knockout performances from a female duo - one leagues stronger than Wicked by far. I adored Moore and Qualley, who had some of the best acting of the entire year, period. The pacing was also much better than Wicked, but some of the other films were even better than that, like Anora and Dune II.

[@shaneth138]

I have seen 50 better movies this year better than Wicked lmao.

[@JesseGallaghers]

Correction for International: Georgia didn’t submit APRIL. They submitted THE ANTIQUE.

[@harrisonash6]

That “Anora” at 45:42 was hilarious

[@commandZee]

Thanks! I have a lot of catching up this year. I ran out to catch _The Substance_ and _Anora_ as soon as it was near me, but I hate that I'm intellectually obligated to watch _Wicked._ The money is enough of an award for _Wicked,_ I felt similarly after watching _Barbie,_ but I was at least excited to watch it.

[@lilbigman777]

1:06 [START]

[@rafaeldantasthedesco6466]

Dennis Quaid and Margaret Qualley are amazing in the substance! Wish they are also nominated somewhere.

[@connorstevens8020]

I saw Nickel Boys at the indie Memphis film festival and I loved it!! RaMell Ross deserves a Director nomination and I also think Aunjanue Ellis should WIN supporting actress

[@monkeyangelo717]

I haven’t seen The Brutalist, Anora, or A Real Pain but Wicked is the best picture I’ve seen thus far. Cynthia and Ariana are just terrific. I especially admire the editing.

[@DrMichaelJAdams]

That is an... interesting statement

[@shaneth138]

You need to see more movies if Wicked is the best movie you have seen.

[@sebastianpacheco1178]

what happened you guys use to release so many videos a week now it feels like we get one video once a few weeks.

[@idokny]

My current predictions for nominees for BEST PICTURE (NOT the win, just chances of getting nominated for BP): 1. Conclave (Focus) 2. Wicked (Universal) 3. Dune 2 (Warner Bros) 4. The Brutalist (A24) 5. Anora (Neon) 6. Emilia Perez (Netflix) 7. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) 8. Sing Sing (A24) 9. Nickel Boys (Amazon/MGM) 10. Gladiator 2 (Paramount) 11. Challengers (Amazon/MGM) 12. A Real Pain (Searchlight) 13. The Substance (Mubi) 14. September 5 (Paramount) 15. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) 16. Blitz (Apple) 17. I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) 18. The Piano Lesson (Netflix) 19. Saturday Night (Sony / Columbia) 20. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Neon)

[@poihpioakarp8845]

My current predictions on the app (as of 5.12): *Best Picture:* 33. The Life of Chuck 32. Joker: Folie à Deux 31. Evil Does Not Exist 30. Hard Truths 29. A Different Man 28. All We Imagine as Light 27. Maria 26. The Wild Robot 25. Didi 24. Queer 23. We Live in Time 22. I'm Still Here 21. Juror No. 2 20. The Piano Lesson 19. The Room Next Door 18. Challengers 17. Saturday Night 16. Gladiator II 15. September 5 14. Blitz 13. The Substance 12. A Complete Unknown 11. A Real Pain --------------------------------------------------------- 10. The Apprentice 9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig 8. Conclave 7. Nickel Boys 6. The Brutalist 5. Wicked 4. Sing Sing 3. Emilia Pérez 2. Anora 1. Dune: Part Two *Best International Feature:* 12. Come Closer (Israel) 11. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand) 10. Flow (Latvia) 9. Universal Language (Canada) 8. Vermiglio (Italy) 7. Evil Does Not Exist (Japan) 6. Kneecap (Ireland) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark) 4. All We Imagine as Light (India) 3. I'm Still Here (Brazil) 2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) 1. Emilia Pérez (France) *Best Documentary:* 8. Black Box Diaries 7. Will & Harper 6. Sugarcane --------------------------------------------------------- 5. No Other Land 4. Dahomey 3. Daughters 2. Soundtrack to a Coup d'État 1. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin *Best Animated Feature:* 13. Chickens for Linda! 12. The Most Precious of Cargoes 11. Transformers One 10. The Lords of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim 9. Orion and the Dark 8. Moana 2 7. Look Back 6. Piece By Piece --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Memoir of a Snail 4. Flow 3. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl 2. The Wild Robot 1. Inside Out 2 *SAG Ensemble:* 24. The Life of Chuck 23. Joker: Folie à Deux 22. Queer 21. The Room Next Door 20. A Complete Unknown 19. The Seed of a Sacred Fig 18. Kinds of Kindness 17. His Three Daughters 16. Nickel Boys 15. Gladiator II 14. Blitz 13. Juror No. 2 12. The Piano Lesson 11. The Apprentice 10. The Brutalist 9. Saturday Night 8. The Substance 7. Wicked 6. September 5 --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Dune: Part Two 4. Conclave 3. Anora 2. Emilia Pérez 1. Sing Sing *I just want to note that International and *especially* Documentary are categories I have kind of a poor knowledge of, so definitely take my predictions there with a grain of salt. P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!

[@poihpioakarp8845]

UPDATE: removed AWIAL and EDNE from International after discovering India and Japan respectively submitted other films. Didn't make any new additions or change any placements, so Kneecap is now in my 5 films getting nominated.

[@SixSamuraiUnited]

This Wicked conversation is terrifying…

[@mauriciojavierrodriguezvel5606]

Why? It is a good movie.

[@theprime6439]

@@SixSamuraiUnited honestly it’s a part one and really isn’t all that

[@ryyaannn_]

@@mauriciojavierrodriguezvel5606because people love to hate good and popular things and undermine them just because they’re successful, even though wicked deserves all the praise and critical success

[@mauriciojavierrodriguezvel5606]

​@@ryyaannn_ agreed

[@tristanmayer5373]

Pretentious film people get so mad when they’re reminded that Hollywood filmmaking is entertainment focused and not a purely artistic endeavor

[@MrGMovieReviews]

Lamorne Morris deserved supporting buzz.

[@pb.j.1753]

Who?

[@leviturner4565]

The substance is one of those movies that’ll win best picture and it’ll seem so obvious in hindsight

[@mikegonzalez503]

I sincerely hope so

[@pb.j.1753]

what in the film twitter is this comment

[@leviturner4565]

@ you’re thinking small. Think Big

[@mikegonzalez503]

@leviturner4565 demi should win too

[@idokny]

Gladiator 2 gets the biggest push from Paramount (more than September 5) and don’t forget that Killers of the Flower Moon received 10 nominations (please tell me who LOVED that film). I still think that Gladiator 2 has chances to crack the top 10 in Best Picture. It’s fighting with several others but it still has a chance.

[@nafischowdhury7375]

gladiator 2 has no shot atp since the audience response is nowhere near the first one. not to mention the box office for that is not huge either.

[@idokny]

@ That doesn’t change the fact that Paramount is behind it and that many people worked on it and are themselves academy members of are friends with members. So deciding it has no chance seems illogical to me. In my eyes there are several film vying for the last three spots.

[@purekinema]

There are many people who care a lot about "social justice issues" (like myself) and also care about nuance, specificity, and objectivity. I haven't seen No Other Land, but from all reviews I've heard, it portrays the reality in the West Bank in a completely one-sided way, as purely the simplistic social justice issue you say it is. Hollywood has many liberal Jews (and their friends and family) who care a lot about Palestinians but also know much more than you do about this conflict, and recognize that this anti-Israel narrative is completely out of touch with reality. It pains and angers them, and they would never award a film with a distorted narrative that demonizes Israel as another villain in the battle they support for social justice.

[@calidofrio13]

Memoirs of a Burning Body from Costa Rica is gonna upset international feature. It has won everywhere it's been.

[@raymonddavies2934]

I really liked The Outrun. Definitely in my top 10 and Saoirse Ronan probably my best actress.

[@BROJANGSTER]

wicked at #2 is craaaaazy!! but it could win adapted screenplay (there doesn’t seem to be a clear frontrunner), plus supporting actress (fingers crossed), plus techs

[@nicholasjoseph8297]

Wicked is bottom 5. Best Day is Supporting Actress win and Sag Assemble. The Brutalist will win GG Drama and Bafta while Anora will win GG Comedy, Critics Choice and PGA. If Sing Sing makes a comeback it will be Sag Assemble and WGA if Conclave is not eligible.

[@Sharpe1502]

I’m unsure how you are coming to that conclusion. But I guess we’ll see. The Brutalist couldn’t even win the golden lion or get into the TIFF top 3. That’s not people’s favorite movie and they’re not just going to vote for it because it’s impressive (See Boyhood vs. Birdman). The Brutalist is going to be an acting win, Wicked is going to win the techs that The Brutalist is up for (Production Design/Editing). The academy votes for movies that obviously move them emotionally or else Coda, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Nomadland, and Parasite wouldn’t have won and movies like Power of the Dog, All Quiet on the Western Front, etc. would’ve won instead.

[@nicholasjoseph8297]

@@Sharpe1502 Room Next Door won cause the jury picks favorites and it didn't screen enough at Tiff. Everyone who's seen it loves it.

[@nicholasjoseph8297]

@@Sharpe1502 The Brutalist is a frontrunner in Actor, Director, Cinematography and Score. Wicked will 3 awards on its best day. A family blockbuster that is no ware near Director or Screenplay nominations that critics only like hasn't won since Oliver which won in a more musical friendly time. The Brutalist being Power of the Dog makes sense but Wicked is no ware in this sicario. This not a 2014 year. This is more like (Spotlight vs Revenant). Anora could go home with just Screenplay and Picture (if Moore is a threat for actress) and Brutalist is a Director, Actor and a tech or 2 that is to long and artsy to win.

[@nicholasjoseph8297]

@@Sharpe1502 the feel good moving one is Anora. I like Wicked very much, but it has no shot to win Best Picture. It will win Astra and E Peoples Choice. The only underdog is Sing Sing maybe.

[@luisg.m.garcia6972]

It's Christmas already

[@chrisluscri8721]

Sing Sing is winning Pic, Actor & Supporting Actor.

[@haroldandmod]

I want that Brutalist photo so much

[@deltamagnet]

"Mars Express" is the potential animated film surprise.

[@pb.j.1753]

Does it have a US distributor that campaigns for it?

[@JorgeLCarneiro]

I'm still here should be nominated for best picture and win international feature.

[@matthewmcculloch2560]

If the choice is between Anora and Wicked, I would genuinely prefer Wicked to win. Sean Baker is not a good filmmaker. The best films that can realistically get in are Nickel Boys, The Brutalist and Dune Part 2.

[@haroldandmod]

I really hope Grand Tour can make the shortlist

[@haroldandmod]

I wouldn’t call Emilia Perez a lock for sag at all, there’s really only 3 performances that they’re pushing which most would agree isn’t really enough also The Favourite had that model

[@rogermaves7862]

always curious of what you guys do for your day jobs?

[@PeterRabbit4Eva]

Mark my words, Emilia Perez is this year’s award villain ! 😁

[@thespagent5718]

As a swede who has seen our submission I just want to give a little heads up. If my country actually commits to campaign the film, The Last Journey (Den sista resan), it could really be dangerous. It’s an enormous crowd pleaser and success in theatres in Sweden. It’s a really good documentary which blends feel good with very emotional beats. You should keep an eye on it, if not for the race, maybe simply because it’s a great film!❤

[@pb.j.1753]

Who is the US distributor of that film? That is an important factor.

[@thespagent5718]

@ it’s Universal who has picked up the rights of distribution, so could definitely have some potential

[@hothotheat3000]

Wicked being a Prt One is going to ensure it doesn’t get BP. It’ll get a lot of precursors but it’s not winning.

[@sailingsam3815]

Wicked is now taking over best picture.Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, Ralph Fiennes and Keiran Calukin. Jon M Chu for director. Wicked for😢😊 best sets and costume, hair and makeup.

[@heatherparisi8250]

Wallace and Gromit getting a nomination would be cool

[@PikaYoshi21]

Wicked is the Cynthia and Ariana show, the supporting actors dont get enough to do so i dont think it will win SAG ensemble

[@TheBlueFuton]

Wicked isnt winning...it is a Part 1. Call it. The same can be said about the actresses. Nomination two years in the row? We will see...

[@eltondealmeida2654]

I think The Brutalist, Conclave, and Wicked have the stronger cases. All three thrive in the combo importance + heart, and tackle issues that can grab voters' subconscious attention in the wake of Trump 2.0.

[@axxellein]

TRES Cool/Heavy=Conclave!!

[@michaelkennedy4571]

I think Gladiator 2 is done but the audience hate it take is weird considering how well it's doing at the box office and it's audience score on rotten tomatoes being in the 80s

[@victorhartnett]

I'm still here (Brazil ) 🇧🇷 ♥️ best movie of the year

[@michaelnorris6280]

I’d also argue musicals do better in the BP category, than Director and Screenplay. Les Miserables and Moulin Rouge were not nominated for those but got a ton of nominations including acting and BP. I think they give musicals a little leeway because the songs and performances factor in so much. You can have good directing and writing and be elevated by the music. I think we’ve seen that a couple times and we might see it again.

[@jamielee7943]

Wicked has bypassed The Brutalist in your predictions to win Best Picture?? Seriously??!! That’s crazy to me. I can totally see it being the new Barbie & being nominated heaps but 2nd to win… wow. That a choice. For me this year there are 2 films that are the strongest to win in the Picture, Director, Actress, Actor & Supporting Actor categories The Brutalist & Anora. And they are both completely deserving & worthy. They just scream Oscars films to me. Wicked not so much. Also I think people are forgetting this is only Part 1. Wicked will likely get more accolades with Part 2. Just like how I think Denis Villeneuve won’t win Best Director until Dune Messiah. Similar to how Lord of the Rings didn’t start dominating until Return of the Kjng. It’s usually the last film that gets the prizes.

[@ezracampanelli7888]

Am I the only one who wants the Oscars to go back to single clips rather than short montages for the performance categories during the Oscar broadcast? I have no pull on Twitter so I’m posting this here 😅

[@stephenkeen5737]

Can I ask how Sing Sing belongs to this awards period when it's officially labelled 2023. I know general release was 2024 but doesn't the year on the label be the one that affects the awards? That's why some are officially in awards even though nobody has seen them.

[@carlaperezgavilan2312]

I agree with Emilia Perez-the storyline is very creative, but as a native Spanish speaker, it felt inauthentic to me. I got excited when I saw that it was set in Mexico City, but the Spanish used sounded very inauthentic and a little cringy at times. Also, I had a hard time connecting with the characters. Perhaps people who don’t speak Spanish as their first language might like it more, I honestly did not enjoy it much