Did Durrrr Spew on High Stakes Poker?!

[@fejoko7900]

I was really confused that you said you might actually check the flop. I always thought, if there are enough draws, you wanna make value out of them....

[@splitsuit]

Depends on how they might play their draws =)

[@fejoko7900]

@@splitsuit OK, thx :)

[@ThePokerBank]

(Chris here) Thinking about playing the entire range is important. Draws aren't very far behind an over pair here, getting a large flop bet raised makes your entire range VERY difficult to play. I personally like a small bet here (mitigates the issue) but checking is also good. In hindsight, I learned Dwan had been playing mostly short deck and I think his NL game is a bit rusty.

[@mysteryman6542]

@@ThePokerBank can maybe fold the turn, villain is uber polarised with his big sizing, and there's not many natural bluffs that are raising the flop against a big flop bet by dwan, and then over potting the turn that contain bluffs. We are also blocking all of his flush draw with straight draw hands, block half of the qj combos.. also this hand was multi way, which makes villains raise on the flop and big bet on the turn, more polarising. Fold the turn would've been a solid exploitably fold. Once we call the turn, calling the river for 20k is fine. I think villain should jam river and try to get a player like dwan in a hero call mode. 109 being the bottom of his jamming range, we can get called by ace high flush draws and hands like kk or qq.

[@theSpaghettiKid18]

@@splitsuit I don't understand why we are scared of getting check raised by Kenny IF we know he's very capable of xr-ing lots of draws. Board: Td 9s 2s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 68.380% 68.03% 00.35% 59268 305.00 { JhJs } Hand 1: 31.620% 31.27% 00.35% 27242 305.00 { TT-99, 22, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs, Q8s, 87s, 76s, KQo, QJo, J8o-J7o, 87o, 76o Obviously, we are dead versus sets. GG Kenny. How's Kenny gonna like it if he check raises to 17k and we stick it right back in his face to 65-70k? I think he's not gonna feel so great about his check raise then. So the question then is what % of the time is he xr-ing these draws versus the sets? I'd say he's xr-ing a set here a lot cuz so many cards can scare 1 pair/over pair type hands away. So if that is true... then he's xr-ing these draws nearly the same amount if he's balanced (and maybe the same amount or more cuz he's gonna be dealt all the draw combo's more often than pairs). ?? Which means... phuck his xraise and we throw 70k at his xraise!! lol We've got tons of equity here. How am I wrong?

[@accessdeniedx2]

James, I am trying to follow, but please explain the fault in my thinking... I would also take a larger sizing on the flop in order to get value from flush draws and 10s while also protecting from scary over cards. I'd love to hear from you as I don't want to make these same mistakes. I play 1/2$ live with unstudied players so maybe my line would be optimal in the games I play?

[@karlseastrand7678]

accessdenied.. IMO the big mistake here is the big flop bet as it leaves Dwan in a horrible spot when villain will play draws very aggressively. BUT in $1/2 live vs many opponents I believe it is very different as lots of players in position will just flat call with their draws meaning there is no real problem with big flop bets. I play around 1000 hours in Vegas mainly at 1/2 (at a very high win rate) so have a good handle on those players tendencies. But again, in this game the big flop bet creates a nightmare IMO. GL

[@nothingleft2lose-]

These deep dive break downs to me are often blowing smoke... Lets see so on flop... you could bet big on the flop or bet medium or bet small or check.... Got it so every option is available to you? Glad we broke that down in 20 plus minutes of discussion about the thinking behind why there are multiple valid reasons you could really do any raise size even potentially checking some times....

[@nothingleft2lose-]

...Also what about a smallish 1/4 to 1/3 block bet sizing on the turn and folding if you get 3bet a second time? If called then reassess on the river.

[@karlseastrand7678]

Guys, would it be a good line for Schwimer to value shove the river (partly for meta game value) if they are likely to play again in future? It balances his missed draws, may get Dwan to call with an A or if he thinks a shove doesn't make sense Dwan will sometimes even call with his actual hand (as well as QQ.KK). If Schwimer would play draws like this (on flop and turn) then I feel to shove the riv has merit. Do you agree?

[@seethemomenttv4086]

how is this a 50 min video on a some\what straight forward hand?

[@royalflush8173]

How did king 9 stay in the hand?

[@seanupton709]

I just think you surely have to bet the flop. You have the best hand so often

[@ThePokerBank]

(Chris here) don't forget when you check the flop you can still c/raise (even though we wouldn't with JJ). We do expect to have the best hand on the flop when called, but what about when raised? Can we play our ranges to the river profitably if raised? If not we're wide open to our opponents punishing us.

[@seanupton709]

@@ThePokerBank ​ Hey Chris. I'm a relatively inexperienced player - winning online at micro/low turbos and, when I think about it, I am usually playing with 20-30 bb. In this spot, its all in when raised, due to the likelihood of all the draws and top pairs. With 100bb I will defer to your expertise haha. My concern would be that there are over 20 cards that could pose a threat to you on the turn so folding hands that would have little reason to call may have value in itself? If a danger card arises, maybe you check (and balance that by checking flushes). Isn't JJ essentially AA here though? Like all of the hands you are saying would beat JJ, if villain is raising for value, would also be ahead of pocket Aces? Should we check them too? I know you are an expert on this stuff but this was my train of thought! Thanks

[@jonasrenz3216]

@@seanupton709 the problem with betting here is that there are a lot of hands that can call and possibly raise us which could end up really bad when we started with a big flop bet. By checking we can call any turn if BB leads or we can start betting ourselves. This wouldn’t blow up the pot unnecessarily much and turn/river play will be much easier.

[@seanupton709]

@@jonasrenz3216 yeah I see the argument. I may be playing with players who are too straightforward, as well as in turbos where you just sigh shove if raised haha

[@eugenemills]

Thanks James! Cool video. Happy New Year!

[@splitsuit]

Cheers Eugene!

[@LTdrumma]

I really dont know about not folding before, on the turn or even on the flop. I really dont know tho....

[@ThePokerBank]

Folding can definitely make sense in a $1/$2 live game, after watching the full episode villain was VERY capable of bluffing. Can't give up your over pairs like that against capable opponents without leaving the door open for major exploitation.

[@thierryfallingstar]

really interresting. more please

[@grindix]

so on river you wouldn't check raise bluff with JsJh because you block spade draws and QJ J8 combos but you beat those hands and you are not targetting them anyway. seems like a bluff on river would be more exploitative targeting the small sizing that might be a rivered A (As 5s) as mentioned by James.

[@Its__Good]

Great analysis. There's just no right way to play Js ;)

[@splitsuit]

Cheers!

[@markrobertbb]

You gotta learn how to flop sets. That's key.

[@ThePokerBank]

@@markrobertbb LOL!

[@edwardmauer7442]

Bet large preflop. If flop doesn't have any AKQ or made flushes/straights, then overbet. Slowdown/fold to aggression if otherwise.

[@chrishobson129]

Yes give the poker playing public more hand/range analysis. Love the thought processes. Thanks James and Chris. ps. Was that a 1 year old I heard in the background? Lol

[@splitsuit]

It almost certainly was Kingston in the background =)

[@grindix]

if JJ is always a call facing a raise when you bet flop for that big sizing what would be a fold? a weak T? are those even betting this big?

[@cpasa798]

I think that Dwan thought about jaming but he knows Schwimer is not going to fold 10/9 for a litlle more that a pot size bet in tv poker and it really looks like 10/9 or bluff that try to make fold miss draws. If those recreational are at those tables they are not going to fold pretty good hands against Dwan. I think Ax is not betting the river because it beats all the overpairs, maybe AQ AK bets this way maybe. A-9 bets 50-60% pot and close eyes and call all in

[@ThePokerBank]

Schwimer actually said he would have folded to a jam after and Dwan was VERY interested, the big issue with jamming is our hand is TERRIBLE for it, it prevents many of the bluffs Schwimer could have reducing the probability of success a LOT.

[@cpasa798]

@@ThePokerBank mmmmmm, I don’t believe him. These players that have a lot of money don’t fold when they have big hands, they blame luck but don’t fold

[@cpasa798]

@@ThePokerBank I didn’t say that was a good play, but I disagree with the jamming from Dwan because I don’t think of any better hand that could fold, like I said maybe AQ/AK maybe

[@karlseastrand7678]

@@ThePokerBank if Schwimer is gunna say that I really hope he never intends to play with Dwan again (or was lying and just trying to get Dwan to over bluff even more in future). Nice video.

[@chessbrilliance8783]

Durr is for sure no GTO player , he plays on his wild image and try to maximise his EV whenever he can. Schwimmer has been doing some bold moves against Dwan if I am not mistaken. I think there had to be some kind of metagame between those two.

[@johnnyw.3029]

43:36 Hi all, any thought on the solvers betting A2s but checking A4s at the river? Thank you.

[@ThePokerBank]

I'd guess it's about blocking flopped sets, that relative strength difference in those hands shouldn't matter.

[@johnnyw.3029]

@@ThePokerBank Yeah. That's the only "humanly" answer I can think of... But in reality, Dwan plays sets aggressively probably.

[@ThePokerBank]

@@johnnyw.3029 I would say bet / calling a set a deuces is the standard line on the flop. Yes some % will check-raise the turn but a correct range will also be protected with hands like sets c/calling.

[@clayvision]

out of curiosity, why wouldnt you want to 3bet dwan in position?

[@TheChaosFactory1]

Did you two switch audio? You both look like you should sound like the other person..

[@ThePokerBank]

(Chris here) haha no switch, I've always had the oddly deep voice.

[@jamorgan4]

I don't want to play against Chris. He sounds too good.

[@ZoroBr7684]

Funny, that makes me want to crush him on a table even though I know way less

[@riccardogalvanin5940]

The site you show at 7:10 is free?

[@splitsuit]

GTO+ is a premium software by the same team that makes Flopzilla. It's available bundled with the GTO Crash Course over on Red Chip Poker: redchippoker.com/gto-poker-course/

[@riccardogalvanin5940]

@@splitsuit thanks

[@randolphgallagher7942]

You bastards, you killed Kenny!

[@plinden]

this is so weird! Obviously you have to bet on flop, to either win it there, or get extract value from draws. why give them a chance to catch up for free?

[@derekdaddyo2557]

I would've checked shipped the turn

[@georgialeksandroff9370]

amaizing analis keep walking

[@sp-gt1mq]

Was a terrible call based on the behavior of the rec player. The speech was hilarious and he still gets paid off. All this analysis isnt needed if you can interpret behavior. havent seen much play thats very impressive tbh. Most Poker players still not using behavior. And apparently durr didnt either. Was shocked he called.

[@ThePokerBank]

JRB actually made a joke on a later episode about "always value bet" the math guys when he bet small into Dwan later :)

[@royalflush8173]

This is just durr bing aggressive as he always is checking or betting 2500 is a horrible play

[@ShiningNova1]

Sucks that you are at the bottom of range here. Villain makes mistakes we can smash with all great hands.

[@splitsuit]

Being at the bottom our range is a common theme for interesting hands =)

[@ShiningNova1]

@@splitsuit Absolutely, that's where you have to make the tough decisions and bring in aspects like ICM, Exploitation, live tells.

[@StickyWraps]

MLB pitcher.... BANKROLL BABY

[@paulpena5040]

I'm at @20:00 in the video and I TOTALLY disagree with the idea that you can't fold here. IF and it's a HUGE IF you know this is really someone with a 1/2 or 2/5 mentality you can definitely fold. You're TOM DWAN a person with a KNOWN reputation for aggression. You RAISED preflop, you led out on the flop with a 3/4 pot bet and a rec player is raising you?? It's pocket 9s or 10s folks. Remeber if he has A10 here and wants to get cute you know darn well Durr could just ship it with a Set or a strong over pair. Is there ANY chance this ISN"T a set? You have to think like Rec players think. They don't like to take risks. To raise this early in the hand screams a monster. Ok at end of video and it was 2 pair, similar idea. I just think they missed out on the extra information that he's a rec player. They "claim" to know this and yet ALL of their analysis was centered around the way Kenney would have (and did) play it. You are not using the information available to you.