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"RBI is being like the ‘George Soros’ of the Indian economy, undermining the currency”

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ThePrint

ThePrint

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 172
@arjunps6776
@arjunps6776 8 күн бұрын
What Deepak is saying is right! RBI is unnecessarily restrictive on dollar investment by Indian Mutual Funds. My SIP in Nasdaq 100 has been suspended as the fund house has exhausted the RBI limit. I find it ridiculous. Why should I lose the opportunity to diversify? It shouldn't be only RBI that's allowed to hold dollar assets. RBI stacking up reserves shows a hoarding mentality of local ration shop owners. If the rupee is allowed to depreciate, it should be allowed to freely appreciate as well.
@Ilikemusic-pl3np
@Ilikemusic-pl3np 8 күн бұрын
That's why people are moving to crypto, RBI oversight is very sterile
@Punch8721
@Punch8721 7 күн бұрын
What concerned me was his statement that the RBI could force you to sell all or part of your investment to bring back dollars.
@intebuddy
@intebuddy 7 күн бұрын
I don't know, but maybe today it's better to depreciate than appreciate. Most currencies are dep'n against dollar. We are balancing against European countries which buy oil products or imports our products.
@ThePrintIndia
@ThePrintIndia 7 күн бұрын
Thank you for your comment and for watching the discussion! - Sharad
@karthikckrishna
@karthikckrishna 7 күн бұрын
The RBI has intervened to an extend they could … the problem is there has been any inflows and only outflows in the last few months …. And forex reserve is mostly gold and RBI should hedge risk with other currencies like EUR etc …. Extreme usage of reserves is only for situations like 2008… reserves are our last resort … and we import more than exports … if this goes on … rupee will set to depreciate further
@Rahul4Kurup
@Rahul4Kurup 7 күн бұрын
Whether the rupee is overvalued or undervalued, the right thing to do seems to be to let the rupee float freely…
@sankalp6872
@sankalp6872 8 күн бұрын
Without a free float regime, we'll never know the true value of the rupee. The general view is that rupee is overvalued. There is no way of knowing how far this person is correct but Glad to hear a contrarion view point.
@ThePrintIndia
@ThePrintIndia 7 күн бұрын
Thanks, Sankalp, for being such a regular member of The Print community and for engaging with our work. - Sharad
@vanjulagg
@vanjulagg 8 күн бұрын
We the people of India … are not smart enough to understand the real impact of Rupee depreciation or Interest rates set by the RBI .. otherwise people would be holding candles at the India Gate .. Fight for the Rupee Fight for the Nation
@stevenlai1199
@stevenlai1199 8 күн бұрын
Practicing burnol therapy at home
@sreenathgopinathan4002
@sreenathgopinathan4002 8 күн бұрын
People are smart enough. India is a net exporter of the Human Resources notwithstanding the software exports and outsourcing. People want to get away from India. In addition to the above fact, India is a net importer of raw materials and that’s the reason why value of rupee is depreciating. Why will anyone fight for the rupee when it is amply evident that Rupee doesn’t have the value
@intebuddy
@intebuddy 7 күн бұрын
Ohh, we the people will suffer because now Gucci is more expensive. Focus on Nominal stats buddy. Best time to dep'n, to conserve our market. European currencies depreciated , if our customers don't have purchasing power then they'll go somewhere else.
@JokerIndian-g1j
@JokerIndian-g1j 7 күн бұрын
@@vanjulagg We were smart before 2014. We got our brainwashed since then.
@ud1235
@ud1235 5 күн бұрын
Very insightful n concerning to hear. It is viral how undia government sees itself in the world view and how it plays its cards in favor or against its citizens. Either there is a sense of fear (doubt in the positive landscape of nations future currently), or a sense of arrogance building within our central bank to manage treasury funds the way it does. I hope either way they reverse their action to precisely what will move our economy in the upward direction. Why let it depreciate if the world is not intending to increase its faith in allowing india to be a exporter of G&S than it used to be decade ago. Hope more people picks on the underlying current that is affecting our today's inflation reducing buying power for tomorrow as well! Repeal FEMA!!
@anuragjain2133
@anuragjain2133 8 күн бұрын
Dollar index has gone up, even some currencies of advance economies have depreciated in against INR
@intebuddy
@intebuddy 7 күн бұрын
That's the point, those Europian countries are our market, if we don't give them purchasing power then they'll shift somewhere else.
@AKumar-co7oe
@AKumar-co7oe 7 күн бұрын
@@intebuddy it has happened due to centbank burning money/forex reserves
@earthling017
@earthling017 8 күн бұрын
Why are we so fixated on superficial metrics like currency strength and forex reserves? Shouldn't the real focus be on driving meaningful progress through increased efficiency, streamlined bureaucracy, sustained GDP growth, robust manufacturing expansion, enhanced purchasing power for the populace, and addressing the trade imbalance between imports and exports?
@JokerIndian-g1j
@JokerIndian-g1j 8 күн бұрын
Currency strength is linked to all that you've listed. How can populace have "enhanced purchasing power" if you have to import so many things and your currency is losing its value?
@xxyz2023
@xxyz2023 8 күн бұрын
There are multiple bottlenecks. We rely heavily on imports from china & crude oil from others. We also have trade deficit with many, 9 out of 10 trading partners. Our exports are too low. While a strengthening rupee seem great, it increase the cost of imports. Even when India is self-sufficient, like in pulses, sometimes, artifical demand, outpaces supply, leading to govt allowing imports. It can cause our farmers in India, to sell their pulses at a loss, while consumer prices remain high. Fdi had reduced due to no action on cronyism. Private investments peaked at 27.5 per cent of GDP in 2007-08 since the economic liberalisation of 1991. At present, India is attracting much fewer investments than it was thought to be, as a lot of investments are going to countries like Vietnam and Mexico because of more regional trade agreements. Vietnam has gained market share, bolstered by FTA & a 10-15 per cent duty concession in the western countries. If we want to become a superpower, we have to first grow per capita to match Asian tiger economies. The manufacturing growth rate has averaged around 5.9% since 2014, lower than the benchmarked 12% to 14%. The current govt has set an ambitious target to increase the manufacturing sector’s share from 16.4% to 25% of GDP by 2022 (has been revised to 2025). India's manufacturing sector has fallen from over 51 million in 2016, to less than 36 million in 2023. India’s manufacturing under shrank from 17% in 2010 & 13% in 2022 to 11.6% or 11.4% in 2023, as per Index of Industrial production performance data. It indicates a 2.9% cumulative growth, in the manufacturing sector from years 2013-14 through 2022-23. For manufacturing to improve in India, govt should first reform or simplify: Complex policies & over regulations, Business environment & ease, The industry has to invest & upgrade in skills & training. Our govt investment in education & r&d, has been kept very low compared to countries like south korea & Israel who have invested in innovation & developing technology for many decades. Russia's also invested on education & r&d during the cold war & it has paid off, enabling russia to develop defense technology despite having a smaller gdp than India. This is a lesson, about the value of prioritizing education & r&d. To achieve the goal of becoming a great economy, union govt must significantly increase its investment in upgrading educational institutes in underdeveloped & bankrupted States. This would not only support state institutional recovery, but also foster r&d which would fuel national progress & development, and then we will be able to compete with top defense exporting nations in the world. Our Education budget: 2024 : 2.5% 2022 : 2.64% 2021 : 2.64% 2020 : 3% 2019 : 3.4% 2018 : 3.48% 2017 : 3.7% 2016 : 3.65% 2015 : 3.88% 2014 : 3.8% 2013 : 4.77% 2012 : 4.97% 2011 : 5% 2010 : 4.5% Our top businessmen, have creative methods of influencing the system, but they don't care about fresh business strategies. And we wonder why we have ultra rich businessmen but no 3M, sony, amazon, google, AMD, microsoft, honeywell, TSMC, Nvidia, ASML, Texas instruments etc. Any economic progress in India, like in IT, is often accidental, & not coz of policies. In India, we don't have great generator of knowledge or great innovative companies. Indian industrialists are not actual industrialists; they are traders. A trader merely deals with logistics & exchange of goods. They are money lenders to kings, but does not invent new things. Real industrialists, invents new things & brings it into the market; but we don't do critical thinking or original ideas in business. Our Medium & Small businesses can create far more jobs than favourite businessman, trains the youth and increases the per capita income of the country. People who pay the most income taxes have no social security or govt pension. Customs process is difficult in India compared to China. So if domestic demand is not picking up, then you are likely to have problems. So do some vikas for Medium & Small businesses who actually create jobs. A1 has created far fewer jobs than any one company, Amul/TATA/any major bank. (P.s India's progress depends on it's ability to adapt & evolve. A nation that is rigid & stuck in to old ways of thinking will only make it very vulnerable, during times there is tense pressure. I believe that religious violence prevents economic progress. So for India to achieve economic greatness, more should support ideology that promotes unity in our country & prevent violence.)
@xcel5203
@xcel5203 8 күн бұрын
​@@xxyz2023 A strengthening rupee will reduce the cost of imports and increase the cost of exports .
@Bhuv-
@Bhuv- 8 күн бұрын
Why is currency strength superficial? Explain that first please
@intebuddy
@intebuddy 7 күн бұрын
Exactly, only nominal stats matter. We are 18% of world population, we are consumers and producers. We are kind of inert to external economic forces
@ankitSharma0808
@ankitSharma0808 8 күн бұрын
Just Mind blowingly smart what he said. Why do we need 12 years worth of dollars and why aren't people like us not allowed to own dollars?
@dr.rangarajc9691
@dr.rangarajc9691 7 күн бұрын
Speculators make a killing as they can easily anticipate tax eating government's actions as it's it's their declared policy to intervene in forex markets. The official counterfeiter, central bank , never learns and keeps fooling the politicians.
@stacydoval8403
@stacydoval8403 7 күн бұрын
Not 12 years loser not even 12 months
@sakshambhadoria9998
@sakshambhadoria9998 8 күн бұрын
Is a strong currency an indicator of a strong economy or not?. Supply and demand in the forex market decides the value of any currency. Weaker currency boosts exports but raises the import bill. Its quite ironical that politicians who used the weakening rupee as a reason to attack the then governments are now discrediting the very same reason. India's energy must be focused on sorting out the structural obstacles to growth and jobs.
@thomasastha9007
@thomasastha9007 8 күн бұрын
No, rbi pumps dollar to stabilise making exports costly n imports cheap artifically
@navskygupta5311
@navskygupta5311 8 күн бұрын
hypocricy ki bhi seema hoti hai - spoke our genius in 2013
@lalithrockz
@lalithrockz 8 күн бұрын
​@@xxyz2023 strengthening the rupee will decrease the cost of imports as you can get more dollars for less rupees.
@rajx7120
@rajx7120 7 күн бұрын
Problem is Supply and demand, alone doesn't determine value of rupee. RBI's intervention also determines. RBI bought too many dollars in last 3 years, when dollar was cheap, to keep rupee undervalued. But today, it is not willing to sell the dollars, to make rupee appreciate. What Mr. Shenoy is saying is, RBI should sell more dollars, fast.
@AKumar-co7oe
@AKumar-co7oe 7 күн бұрын
strong currency has no correlation with strong economy unless viewed in conjunction with other metrics. If India creates a new currency tomorrow called NaMo Rupee, which is equal to 1000 Rs, and forces everyone to exchange notes demonetization style, then our currency would become stronger than America. Economy would not change at all - except reduce GDP growth due to waste of time and energy.
@udayakumarmeivelu4736
@udayakumarmeivelu4736 8 күн бұрын
If RBI continues to depreciate rupee assuming it will give export competitiveness exploitation of indian labour and commodities alone will be the outcome. Middle class will only become poorer leading to a poorer country.
@intebuddy
@intebuddy 7 күн бұрын
They are not assuming it'll give boost to export, they are dep'n just to preserve our market in foreign countries which have dep'n in their currencies. Best time to dep'n.
@karthikckrishna
@karthikckrishna 7 күн бұрын
Simple fact: Exports is more than imports …. Demand for dollar is always more than rupee … so rupee will depreciate…..accentuated by FI exodus.. In a country of farmers we import cooking oil instead we can support our farmers ….. the politicians and govt official make money with imports contracts than encouraging farmers … the economist fail to discuss this ….they are academic and stick to their metrics
@amxnraj
@amxnraj 3 күн бұрын
well the farmers in the most fertile region of India only want to grow paddy and wheat. Further, they want their produce to be secured by the govt. instead of letting the cost be decided by the market. No other option other than to import cooking oil.
@atherzaidi5871
@atherzaidi5871 2 күн бұрын
Agree. Focus should be on getting more dollars in than are flowing out. As an NRI, I can buy shares in Chinese BYD, but not in Maruti. Share market should be opened for NRIs on same terms as locals, that alone will bring in hard cash. Also electric cars and bikes should be subsidied to stop oil imports. A 10 % tarrifs on all Chinese low tech items like plastic chairs, toys, utensils etc is needed to reduce imports from China of goods already being made in India. Rupee value is the symptom not the disease. We are lucky that NRIs sent 100 billion+ last year. So there is still a comfortable gap between total external debt and RBI fx reserves. The day reserves go below debt, people will see what crash looks like. This 2% degradation in last 2-3 years is not a crash.
@ranganramasamy6820
@ranganramasamy6820 7 күн бұрын
This is the kind of thinking that led India having to ship gold to avoid default.
@AkashSingh-re5sm
@AkashSingh-re5sm 3 күн бұрын
Pleasure listening to Deepak 🙏
@bijuldesai3097
@bijuldesai3097 2 күн бұрын
Very few sensible people giving genuine commentary
@kapilbhosle5731
@kapilbhosle5731 7 күн бұрын
Awesome explanation!!! Loved it❤
@jaigagandeep.s5100
@jaigagandeep.s5100 8 күн бұрын
I may agree that RBI is not great and undermining the currency but comparing to George Soros in any way is ridiculous.
@AKumar-co7oe
@AKumar-co7oe 7 күн бұрын
in fact it's the other way around - the more RBI props up the rupee - the easier it becomes for people like Soros to short it and force the bank to waste public money defending a currency peg.
@sahithyaaappu
@sahithyaaappu 3 күн бұрын
Rbi will never let rupee appreciate , we will have phone calls from IT companies like infosys and TCS literally yelling and scolding the RBI if they do so
@vikasnagaraja1657
@vikasnagaraja1657 6 күн бұрын
Sir this is one of the best explanations I have seen on currency
@chintansurana9017
@chintansurana9017 8 күн бұрын
INR is not undervalued by any stretch of imagination.
@PoliticalMatter
@PoliticalMatter 7 күн бұрын
Says uneducated youtube commentator
@chintansurana9017
@chintansurana9017 7 күн бұрын
@ no I’m a bhakt, believe-everything-godi-media-says, graduate of WhatsApp university
@chintansurana9017
@chintansurana9017 7 күн бұрын
@ according to you education this must be a Soros conspiracy 🤣🤣
@prashanthb6521
@prashanthb6521 8 күн бұрын
Both are among my favs regarding economics. Thanks for this discussion.
@TheKakarot_itachi
@TheKakarot_itachi 8 күн бұрын
who is Deepak Shenoy?
@vijayyg466
@vijayyg466 6 күн бұрын
Your comparison of RBI to George Soros is very disgusting and unprofessional. This is not expected of a channel like yours. Why do you stoop down this level? You just want to give a sensational tag to your video! Very cheap and mean.
@Bulldozz1-1
@Bulldozz1-1 7 күн бұрын
This is an excellent excellent discussion. Always look forward to Sharad’s videos ❤
@ThePrintIndia
@ThePrintIndia 7 күн бұрын
Your feedback is very heartwarming! I will try my best to continue to do the quality work that you look forward to. Thank you! - Sharad
@uzwalkumarchatterjee7074
@uzwalkumarchatterjee7074 8 күн бұрын
Amazing video ! Eye owner and makes a lot of sense !
@PritiAnand1BSG
@PritiAnand1BSG 6 күн бұрын
Superb! I heard this podcast twice 🎉🎉
@saratchandraprayaga6930
@saratchandraprayaga6930 8 күн бұрын
Great insight. We are slaves to china commercially by running huge trade deficit and slaves to USA by hoarding dollars just to satisfy the middle class mentality of howmany rupees you have in conversion terms due to American salary 😮😢
@avishekm1985
@avishekm1985 7 күн бұрын
I do not buy this idea. Rupee should be a free float currency. India runs a current account deficit and hence depreciation of rupee is a normal course of thing. If we do not let it be a free float when renminbi is depriciating we will be a dumping ground for cheap Chinese goods.
@AnandGupta-d2u
@AnandGupta-d2u 8 күн бұрын
17:35 When the RBI will let the dollars go, the same person will be criticizing the government that our nation's foreign currency reserves are decreased this much.
@intebuddy
@intebuddy 7 күн бұрын
Exactly, that's why he is here and RBI guys are in office. Guy said most things right in most convoluted way I've ever heard. We need to preserve our market and countries which import our products had suffered currency dep'n. RBI felt, we can give those customers some purchasing power otherwise they'll shift their import to any other country.
@pkmkb007
@pkmkb007 7 күн бұрын
I learned recently that China keeps their currency artificially weak so that their exports are cheaper and no one can beat their exported good prices. Here in India we become nationalistic when rupee goes down.
@nikhilchandra9243
@nikhilchandra9243 7 күн бұрын
Did you miss the part about trade deficit and trade imbalance? India imports more than it exports so a weaker currency does hurt us overall
@ick-625
@ick-625 7 күн бұрын
​@@nikhilchandra9243 True. I wonder if they are letting slide to make Indian exports more attractive in short term to survive the tariff and restrictions storm once Trump takes office till the dust settles down.
@Bruh-og8rb
@Bruh-og8rb 7 күн бұрын
Doesn’t weak currency also makes the import more expensive? India imports alot more then it exports
@pkmkb007
@pkmkb007 6 күн бұрын
@ You are right, i missed that part. Overall India needs to become a export surplus economy.
@raghavgopal4363
@raghavgopal4363 6 күн бұрын
Remember China has a trade surplus because they import less.
@ArunRamakrishnan
@ArunRamakrishnan 7 күн бұрын
Deepak makes excellent points on how RBI behaves like a clown in a kabuki theatre. Our value added exports like services will do just fine with much stronger INR. In fact our competitives is being eroded by lack of reform and special tariff regimes given to other nations like BD by EU.
@priortokaraew7569
@priortokaraew7569 8 күн бұрын
Depressing. It incenses me. We really need sharper minds running the country.
@stevenlai1199
@stevenlai1199 8 күн бұрын
Modi Ji to hai mumkin hai
@dannycbe949
@dannycbe949 8 күн бұрын
Yes sir... irrespective of the party in power ..RBI has not changed... Singh Chidu, Nimmy Makes no difference to them
@rajx7120
@rajx7120 7 күн бұрын
Amazing. Liked every word of Mr Shenoy. Allow rupee to appreciate. Now, even if this causes loss to exports, or a drop in salaries of IT service folks, it will be offset by cheaper petrol, that we would benefit from.
@jaishree427
@jaishree427 8 күн бұрын
Wow,hè has many points.Makes so much sense.🎉
@ThePrintIndia
@ThePrintIndia 7 күн бұрын
Thank you for watching! I will be sure to convey your message to Mr Shenoy. - Sharad
@RajasNadkarni
@RajasNadkarni 7 күн бұрын
I'm sure Mr Shenoy has investment that could go bust if RBI doesn't support the dollar. Generally, weaker rupee is far bette for increasing exports and earning more. Just look at china which artificially weakening it's currency to boost exports.
@sbaskaran7638
@sbaskaran7638 7 күн бұрын
Like Deepak’s contrarian logic. Not only Nation pays more for imports due to devaluation but the sliding of INR demoralises the sentiment when RBI intervenes ONEWAY . I wish RBI listens to Deepak. Play this game of keeping INR. more or less stable ( with a band) for a change and see the other side of the issue. I watch with glee Raghav’s face turning pale with Deepak’s brutal assault on “ conventional” economists. Enjoyed this very much. Moral : Let RBI play the game both ways.
@amishaghadai8769
@amishaghadai8769 7 күн бұрын
such a great discussion
@Kishlayamisra
@Kishlayamisra Күн бұрын
Very good discussion
@mcharanm
@mcharanm 6 күн бұрын
it’s been bought from 60-87 in 10 years , with out appreciation , rbi unilateral decisions ,
@jw8752
@jw8752 8 күн бұрын
A different but potentially workable perspective! Nice!
@ThePrintIndia
@ThePrintIndia 7 күн бұрын
Thank you for your feedback! - Sharad
@SB_0x89
@SB_0x89 8 күн бұрын
Mr. Shenoy's arguments seem to be the exact opposite of the recent CTC episode on the same topic. This topic got even more cluttered. Are these the opposing viewpoints of the importing and exporting lobbies? Liked this argument to free the Rupee.
@AKumar-co7oe
@AKumar-co7oe 7 күн бұрын
'free the rupee' but he can't then say 'RBI should spend more dollars into the market' speaking with both sides of his mouth.
@Venkateshmerc
@Venkateshmerc 8 күн бұрын
Fantastic analysis. Mainstream media does not even come close to discuss in-depth like this.
@AnilJenaa
@AnilJenaa 7 күн бұрын
Halfwitted analysis. Doesn’t take into account the External USD loan liabilities of Indian Corporates. He is advocating 20% volatility 😮. Consultant mindset.
@anuragbanerjee2879
@anuragbanerjee2879 8 күн бұрын
We should start moving towards full convertibility of rupee and make gold a legal tender
@abhinavsrivastava1461
@abhinavsrivastava1461 7 күн бұрын
Very interesting discussion!!
@SanjeeviNarasimhan
@SanjeeviNarasimhan 8 күн бұрын
Sharad, I am loving your work. (Sans Shekar Ji). This is a fresh perspective on the current state of INR slide. Looks like RBI is making a conundrum of its own.
@nuranichandra2177
@nuranichandra2177 7 күн бұрын
China manipulates her currency dynamically to stay ahead of the game. Like India they also have a sizable presence in IT revenue. The fact of the matter is the IT revenue of China is nothing compared to the revenues from raw materials, retail and commercial manufacturing sectors. India can never achieve that level of diversification and hence the rupee will constantly remain in a state of flux.
@surtaal2803
@surtaal2803 8 күн бұрын
I agree with the penalist to some extent, the other side i.e the cons of rupee appreciating are not discussed enough. But agree that India should consider itself as going concern while formulating policies and not 12 months or 18 months worth of imports. It should also have policy to utilize those $800 billion to make itself developed do fastest and make it's people wealthier
@squarecut4761
@squarecut4761 8 күн бұрын
Chinese weakened their currency artificially for trade benefits but we Indians can't afford it. Why ?
@Bhuv-
@Bhuv- 8 күн бұрын
Because we are a democracy and have people's voice? Or have we shifted to a autocracy already, I cannot make out anymore. I am a proud BJP voter of 2014 and 2019, but didn't vote in 2024, so don't make me out to be a radical.
@ashboy7968
@ashboy7968 7 күн бұрын
Even if we weakened the rupee, there is no surge in manufacturing and it ends up only enriching the crony capitalists, as someone said the BJP is nothing but Congress with a Cow
@RajasNadkarni
@RajasNadkarni 7 күн бұрын
Because people like Mr Shenoy will lose their money. This interview is purely PR.
@Bulldozz1-1
@Bulldozz1-1 6 күн бұрын
@@RajasNadkarni lol no, China is a huge net exporter so weaker currency helps. We are a net importer so a weaker currency makes it worse. It is a fact, nothin PR or political about it. Please get your head out of the sand.
@MahboobIslam
@MahboobIslam 6 күн бұрын
Because Indian imports heavily.. not much export.
@rajulutg2167
@rajulutg2167 8 күн бұрын
Mr Shenoy is in for trouble as he is only forcibly stating that RBI is controlling rupee, which World Bank said a year back and entire administration and political establishment aided by media countered it. While there is some validity in unnecessarily understating the REER, it may not be that simple that as USD is coming in rupee will appreciate. There are questions on the data including GDP from many quarters and this sense of unreliability is adding to discomfort.
@thomasastha9007
@thomasastha9007 8 күн бұрын
Let ruppe be weaker, to that we have intent to import less and export more
@jnanadas1250
@jnanadas1250 8 күн бұрын
That is a good idea .... except for the fact that we import oil, and if the rupee gets weaker, then imported oil will cause inflation. Hope you understand. If not, let me know I will explain.
@thomasastha9007
@thomasastha9007 8 күн бұрын
@@jnanadas1250 let ppl get buy petrol n diesel, go more for public transport.
@jnanadas1250
@jnanadas1250 8 күн бұрын
@thomasastha9007 Great point... as long as you have train connectivity, it works...but otherwise, the condition of public transportation in rural India is really horrible.
@AKumar-co7oe
@AKumar-co7oe 7 күн бұрын
​@@jnanadas1250 doesn't matter. At country scale Oil is paid for in dollars not in rupees so cost to country is the same (in dollar terms). If we overvalue the rupee we are implicitly subsidizing oil imports by making it appear cheaper than it actually is while taxing it at the pump - which is idiotic. Let the rupee float freely. Oil prices will go up, consumption of oil will go down - but renewables, EVs domestic energy sources will get a boost.
@ABHYUDAYSARKAR
@ABHYUDAYSARKAR 4 күн бұрын
@jnanadas Please explain how rupees weakening makes petrol more expensive?
@gurbachansingh_macrofinance
@gurbachansingh_macrofinance 8 күн бұрын
A very good conversation. One may differ here n there but that’s ok. At least someone is thinking and saying what he thinks. It’s getting away from Groupthink, which is actually hardly any think, it’s just a common narrative said in different words. Thank you
@ThePrintIndia
@ThePrintIndia 7 күн бұрын
Thank you so much, Dr Singh. Coming from you, this is a great compliment. - Sharad
@bharatsuchakhuf2731
@bharatsuchakhuf2731 7 күн бұрын
Can the reason for this depreciation be the result of RBI/ Government buying Gold ?
@AKumar-co7oe
@AKumar-co7oe 7 күн бұрын
it wouldn't make sense because Gold is counted as forex reserves and Gold has appreciated - so if RBI had hypothetically moved all their reserves to gold - the reserves would have gone up not down
@Indianmalayalee
@Indianmalayalee 7 күн бұрын
I don’t know, “you made so much money, so give me half of it” makes any sense. 😂 companies provide services, and get compensated based on a signed contract. So give me half because you are making so much money makes sense!! He is just trying to prove a point.
@rakadus
@rakadus 8 күн бұрын
I would like to know which substance the writer of the heading consumed.
@aryanpasham
@aryanpasham 3 күн бұрын
the substance which is formed by using condom.😊
@mohdshariq5814
@mohdshariq5814 8 күн бұрын
Blame everyone but not modi
@loveinthelandfill1124
@loveinthelandfill1124 8 күн бұрын
Do not dare ...... Do not dare. Our Emperor is infallible.
@realsbs
@realsbs 8 күн бұрын
Disagree with his points
@AKumar-co7oe
@AKumar-co7oe 7 күн бұрын
same. I think we need the huge reserves and to keep rupee slightly depreciated to prevent pakistan phenomenon, build macroeconomic stability and investor confidence (which lowers interest rates) and to help our merchandise exports. Loosening capital controls, I agree with - you can't attract investment with capital controls like this. Also I think the huge forex reserves should not sit statically - we should start a sovereign wealth fund or something to start getting a return on these assets instead of lying flat. We could get 40-60B just by investing 2/3rds of the forex reserves.
@abhishekinfra
@abhishekinfra 7 күн бұрын
The rupee is NOT overvalued. The idea that India's rupee fall must match inflation rate is flawed because inflation is determined not just by dollar strengthening but also by our domestic fiscal deficit. Suppose our fiscal deficit miraculously goes down to 0. Then, we won't have to import that much at all, and rupee will zoom upwards.
@rajx7120
@rajx7120 7 күн бұрын
Fiscal deficit has nothing to do with imports. And fiscal deficit is not a problem, as long as GDP grows more than the deficit, to cover that up. Now, how you use that borrowed money is what determines, how much GDP growth will happen, and hiw much inflation will happen, as it is dependent on the multiplier effect. Infra spending has multiplier of 3, whereas subsidies and revenue expenditure have a multiplier of 0.95. It's the difference between taking loan to enjoy life vs taking loan to upskill yourself, and get a job that pays back your loan. Still India's FRBM Act mandates a limit of 3.5% fiscal deficit, which was breached after pandemic, but has been coming down since. And your blaming of fiscal deficit, breaks down in the case of US, which enjoys printing the reserve currency and exports inflation. Lastly, even if fiscal deficit becomes zero, doesn't mean imports will become zero. Import and export are dependent on needs of the economy. We don't produce enough crude oil, edible oil, and pulses. And we buy lot of gold for cultural reasons. Now, if govt borrowing is used to say, discover an oil field, or build nuclear power plant, and build better highways that improve fuel efficiency, then our energy imports will come down. For pulses and oilseeds, we really need to diversify out agriculture. Some of the inflation of fruits and vegetables, are due to broken market linkage because of which farmers destroy the fruits and vegetables for lack of a better price. Enabling direct sales between farmer and buyer would fix this issue, and was part of the APMC Amendment Act that is now repealed due to pressure from Punjab. Rupee is made to fall, to benefit exporters, and to have a buffer of dollars in critical times. Deepak Shenoy argues that, we have too much buffer, that we are hurting today's growth for fear of tomorrow's uncertainties.
@abhishekinfra
@abhishekinfra 7 күн бұрын
@@rajx7120 fiscal deficit is solely a function of domestic government expenditure. That in turn is a major factor of inflation (alongside imports exceeding exports). So, REER just cannot be the metric to determine rupee's true value. It's current value is indeed the fair value. Also, merely having a trade surplus doesn't guarantee a rising currency. Brazil is an example. It is a next exporter and runs surpluses, and yet It's currency keeps depreciating because it runs a high inflation, which in turn is due to massive fiscal deficit.
@rajx7120
@rajx7120 6 күн бұрын
@@abhishekinfra Fiscal deficit alone is not the major factor. Overall productivity of a nation matters. If the deficit is used to improve productivity by investment then you won't get inflation.
@abhishekinfra
@abhishekinfra 6 күн бұрын
@rajx7120 since 1991, our deficit has been almost been equal to growth rate on an **average**. What's the point of such a deficit if it's not resulting in significantly higher growth ? It implies much of it is mismanagement (like over budget infrastructure, excessive subsidies, corruption and tax evasion). The solution is better fiscal prudence and *not** to sacrifice the rupee by allowing its free fall.
@rajx7120
@rajx7120 6 күн бұрын
@abhishekinfra No. Our deficit has not been equal to growth on average after 1991. During Vajpayee era, UPA 1, and pre-pandemic Modi era, fiscal deficit has always been less than 3.5% and GDP growth has always been above 6%. Only during UPA 2 and post-pandemic Modi era, did fiscal deficit grew beyond 3.5%. Yet, inflation was less in Modi era than UPA 2, because UPA 2 used the borrowing for revenue expenditure, whereas Modi 2.0 used it for capital expenditure. So, it's not about "mismanagement". It's about right policies vs wrong policies. And the rupee has never been "allowed" to fall, but it wasn't allowed to rise either. As long as America has power of dollar, all other currencies will suffer. But, liberalizing the currency, will allow periods of appreciation as well. That's the crix of the discussion.
@vanjulagg
@vanjulagg 8 күн бұрын
If the RBI is holding USD which is depreciating as per US inflation rate.. India is importing US inflation.. US treasury alternatively at least has some coupon
@indukuri123
@indukuri123 8 күн бұрын
I guess he means US bonds when he means Dollars.
@AKumar-co7oe
@AKumar-co7oe 7 күн бұрын
We don't hold USD directly we hold US bonds I guess - which are returning signiciantly higher returns than inflation currently.
@deccanheart
@deccanheart 6 күн бұрын
I am so disappointed with the ‘The Print’ in labeling the title of this episode associating and unnecessarily maligning Soros. Why? It speaks more of your bias in Journalistic ethics than Soros himself
@gargsamyt
@gargsamyt 8 күн бұрын
The INR has been steadily depreciating for the last 40-50 years. This is all match fixing by the West, particularly the US - why does the global Fx turnover average more than $7.5 trillion per day? According to recent data, real global trade per day is estimated to be around $90 billion. Theoretically, one needs to exchange currencies to the tune of approx $100 bn daily, so why this huge Fx daily volume? I'm not impressed by arguments that these trillions, even quadrillions, represent "notional" amounts. Reality is that the notional amounts are kept very high by design. The daily mark to market requires daily settlement of huge amounts - it is a barrier to entry for all except those recognized by the Fed i.e. have a direct pipeline with the Fed (the very entity which prints money in the dark). In reality, the Fx markets are a scam perpetrated by the big G7 banks. It is designed to keep their own currencies high because they have no choice but to cross-sell each other's high-priced goods to each other. The only way that is possible is if their own currencies are kept high. If any nation, other than the US, printed the amount of its own currency or took on as much debt as the US, its currency would have collapsed overnight & led to hyper-inflation.
@ankitagrawal1572
@ankitagrawal1572 7 күн бұрын
What does TCA mean? Referring to "TCA" Sharad Raghavan.
@DoveSharma
@DoveSharma 8 күн бұрын
Can someone explain the logic of the calculation: Ideal currencey depreciation = inflation differential
@viswanathanseshadri1047
@viswanathanseshadri1047 8 күн бұрын
George Soros is a great warrior for democracy. So RBI is a great warrior for democracy.
@rajatdeeprana
@rajatdeeprana 8 күн бұрын
20:00 It matters... contrary to the understanding of the panelist
@shrekanu
@shrekanu 6 күн бұрын
Good Stuff!
@AnandGupta-d2u
@AnandGupta-d2u 8 күн бұрын
12:57 we are net importer, true but what about employment generation in goods production for exports.
@VirafKatrak
@VirafKatrak 8 күн бұрын
Well researched.
@srinivasanpr1112
@srinivasanpr1112 8 күн бұрын
when fpi has purchase 1.2 lac cro worth of govt bond ; something is missing ; some gap in the data coming to public
@DuskyRisky-n4w
@DuskyRisky-n4w 6 күн бұрын
How will we manufacture if Nirmal aji puts 18% gst on msme manufacturing machinery to start manufacturing and putting costum duties on raw materials, semmi raw materials of manufacturing and cheap manufacturing machinery too but she didn't put 200% terrif on chinese finished products shameless disgusting
@SeshadriVyas
@SeshadriVyas 8 күн бұрын
Sane analysis. Thanks.
@_rohit97
@_rohit97 8 күн бұрын
100% agree Bunch of buffoons doing day trading with the currency 😂 If you look at the kind of swaps RBI buys is so insane They are gambling with our currency
@sundarraman6206
@sundarraman6206 8 күн бұрын
Awesome 👍
@maheshsuryawanshi3596
@maheshsuryawanshi3596 8 күн бұрын
Don't agree to the conversation.
@vends919
@vends919 7 күн бұрын
Horrible clickbait header analogy. For this header I am downthumbing
@parthsna
@parthsna 8 күн бұрын
RBI should just be a central bank, stop poking its nose in everything. Make a separate regulator for banks and financial services. Finally they should stop manipulating markets all together unless its for defending the rupee, not to boost exports or stop imports or anything like that.
@Buddhl59
@Buddhl59 8 күн бұрын
I give up on the economics section. This stuff belongs on Instagram or worse far away from anything posturing for journalistic excellence. I hear the experts here also going to teach at the school of journalism. 30 minutes is criminal wastage of subscription fee and more importantly human time. Made haste with subscription renewal
@ThePrintIndia
@ThePrintIndia 6 күн бұрын
Hi, thank you for your comment. As always, we strive to be better. Please would you tell us what, in particular, you find objectionable about our economic coverage? That would help us improve. Thank you! - Sharad
@gpv007
@gpv007 7 күн бұрын
Deepak is not an economist but a fund manager.
@prateeksharma7435
@prateeksharma7435 8 күн бұрын
What is this guy saying... And he is supposed to be managing portfolios..phew
@arjunps6776
@arjunps6776 8 күн бұрын
His PMS is quite good at managing money. What he says makes a lot of sense. RBI is still living in a post colonial hangover.
@madhumadhusudan494
@madhumadhusudan494 8 күн бұрын
Disagree...bulk of reserves can go away anytime.....
@satishsharma9925
@satishsharma9925 7 күн бұрын
As always The Print always talk negative for India.
@prajakt0789
@prajakt0789 7 күн бұрын
*Kejriwal lao desh badlo. Ek hi paryay hai.*
@TheKakarot_itachi
@TheKakarot_itachi 8 күн бұрын
Who is deepak Shenoy? Pass out from mere NMIMS. Just another mere portfolio manager
@shash704
@shash704 8 күн бұрын
Force to sell them and bring dollars back from mutul fund investments is a crazy idea for sure 😂😂
@YankeeForever2001
@YankeeForever2001 8 күн бұрын
THIS GUY IS MAKING WORTHLESS POINTS. When rupee falls our imports get very expensive. And we import more than export
@rajatdeeprana
@rajatdeeprana 8 күн бұрын
I agree
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