India's flattening rupee-$ rate, economists ask if a ‘strong’ rupee is good or a burden

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ThePrint

Күн бұрын

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@ThePrintIndia
@ThePrintIndia 23 күн бұрын
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@tvpuram
@tvpuram 23 күн бұрын
kzbin.info/www/bejne/j5_Tm6eaZciBjqc Gems of Modi 1
@tvpuram
@tvpuram 23 күн бұрын
kzbin.info/www/bejne/laKYgYOioqZsosk Gems of Modi 2
@HimanshuShekhar1
@HimanshuShekhar1 23 күн бұрын
Still there is sadly a lot of corruption and mafia gangs involved in the Indian bureaucracy and the economy. It is so tough for the small business owner.
@sameerthekingcobra
@sameerthekingcobra 23 күн бұрын
The RBI spent from its reserves to shore up the rupee to cushion it during the earlier phase of Russia Ukraine war. India lost some foreign reserves then. This is known to everyone and the RBI governor himself had come on TV and said the same. Were these economists sleeping under a rock on Mars then? But the things have turned around pretty quickly and the fact that the reserves have increased quiet rapidly since then shows that RBI is doing the right thing. The price control that the central government carries out is an essential component of controlling inflation and this happens everywhere in the world including in the US. This government should get credit for having inflation under check compared to the earlier regime where even a small incidence abroad was used to rip the Indian citizens of hard earned savings by artificially devaluing rupee and increasing inflation. Who can forget the times between 2011 and 2013? I am surprised though that these journalists do not have any wisdom to share when US Federal Reserve is brazenly managing dollar's value while at the same time its printing money left right and center, but had Indian policy decisions compared to failed economies of Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, etc! This hit piece is for those corrupt opposition politicians and their pet journos who have cash abroad and want the most buck in rupee terms than for the common good of Indian citizens. Those days are long gone
@HarmanHundal01
@HarmanHundal01 23 күн бұрын
Some people need to pull their head out of the 56 inch tongue's ass and stop ascribing ulterior motives to any journalist who criticises the tongue's governance. Shekhar has given well reasoned, well researched arguments here. Maybe he is right, maybe he is wrong. But there is no reason to be butthurt. The 56 inch tongue and its chamchas aren't the only patriots in the country.
@sameerthekingcobra
@sameerthekingcobra 22 күн бұрын
@@HarmanHundal01 First of all you need to read clearly and comprehend accordingly and before that, go through the video again. Shekhar explains with great pain that its not his research. Then why are you attributing it to him? Shekhar himself admits that all economics is politics, so why can't it be this research that he quotes from? Every propaganda is backed by research and statistics with cherry picked data. Why are you getting offended personally? It's not going to grow your 2 inches any longer
@HarmanHundal01
@HarmanHundal01 22 күн бұрын
@ You respond with yet more daftness. I was commenting about the mind numbingly stupid tenor of your comment. For 56 inch tongue’s chamchas like you every critic is a conspirator against Bharat Mata. That is an assholish perspective, sorry to say. Stop wasting your life in this chamchagiri and start putting your points across more politely instead of frothing at the mouth in agony everytime someone finds something wrong with the 56 inch tongue’s policies.
@JJ-hi4gh
@JJ-hi4gh 22 күн бұрын
​@@sameerthekingcobraGupta himself is not sure if currency manipulation is happening or not. He is basing this opinion on some commentators columns that Inr is unduly supported by RBI. What is the proof? And Mr Gupta himself agrees the street value of dollar has not increased in india. If INRs value was really heightened by currency manipulation it would have been certainly reflected in the its street price
@chunilalbaldaniya153
@chunilalbaldaniya153 22 күн бұрын
Under the great economist in UPA, inflation rate was always higher than GDP rate
@Sachin-hi3sc
@Sachin-hi3sc 23 күн бұрын
We can not go back to the Nehru Gandhi era of Mai baap sarkar.
@mg.f.9023
@mg.f.9023 23 күн бұрын
Now it’s Modani sarkar
@DataCrusade1999
@DataCrusade1999 23 күн бұрын
Tell that to Modi.
@mg.f.9023
@mg.f.9023 23 күн бұрын
Jay Shah, the current honorary secretary of the BCCI, has been unanimously elected as the Independent Chair of the ICC, starting December 1, 2024.
@kushagravlogs5627
@kushagravlogs5627 23 күн бұрын
Failure of Modi
@Sachin-hi3sc
@Sachin-hi3sc 23 күн бұрын
Socialism is so deep from general politics from Nehru Gandhi family that we as nation don’t even know what’s good for us. Ex agricultural reforms. Gupta ji agrees.
@ManojParashar-h8s
@ManojParashar-h8s 23 күн бұрын
Again a half truth ! A hallmark of Mr Gupta !
@GautamMahara-k1q
@GautamMahara-k1q 21 күн бұрын
Exactly , posing hideously as showing both views but showing strong bias for one side is the what i feel while listening to Shekhar Gupta . He is saying that India should let the rupee fall freely without making sense of geopolitical consideration going around in the world . America can freely print all the paper money called dollar and buy NATURAL RESOURSES of the world . Its just backed by US hegemony and if it is threatened people might loose trust in it and it will devaluate . Better to Buy Gold from that dollar right now , slowly , overtly and covertly .
@veryCreativeName0001-zv1ir
@veryCreativeName0001-zv1ir 21 күн бұрын
@@GautamMahara-k1q reserve banks around the world generally have a mix of both precious metals and foreign currency because gold is a hedge against inflation, but currency is the definition of liquid which helps in maintaing day to day operations in currency exchange to ensure smooth payments for importer/exporters the US dollar can really only be replaced by another currency whatever it may be not by gold
@rajanikantmohan840
@rajanikantmohan840 23 күн бұрын
The argument is flawed. As long as the RBI is trying to set the price through market trades (buy/sell USD) then supply will meet demand. Hence there is no black market created. If the price is set by diktat, then a black market is created.
@MrKguha
@MrKguha 22 күн бұрын
point is wherther its RBI or market makers if big forces plays with the currency trade for a long period of time it will create imbalance. simply saying its done via market trades so that why okay is not correct IMHO
@devilsmirk5826
@devilsmirk5826 22 күн бұрын
RBI "trying to set the price" is the issue here, supply-demand is something that markets take care of and no entity is smart enough to somehow setup a system where they can dynamically match supply and demand
@sanjanamohan4768
@sanjanamohan4768 22 күн бұрын
point is rbi SHOULD NOT be setting the price. of course it has to go by market trades (what other way is there for such an open economy?) but artificially keeping the value of currency low or high catches up to u since it does not match the macro fundamentals.
@anuragbanerjee2879
@anuragbanerjee2879 22 күн бұрын
RBI does not sets the price, but trues to reduce volatility .. aka reduce risk premium
@rajanikantmohan840
@rajanikantmohan840 14 күн бұрын
@@MrKguha not saying it's ok or it's not-ok. Just saying black market will not be created
@2010anilshukla
@2010anilshukla 22 күн бұрын
Exports have been hit due to Covid, Ukraine war, economic downturn in Europe and China etc but find no mention in this analysis- wonder why?
@rajx7120
@rajx7120 23 күн бұрын
Controlling inflation is the key to seeing a stable rupee. Our key import causing most deficit are - crude oil, natural gas, pulses and edible oil. Renewables policy, and National Pulse and Oilseeds Mission is already working towards reducing these imports. Regarding exports, our exporters should focus on competitiveness. Some of the blame should be put on states, that cross-subsidize energy costs to give freebies. And also, wastage in farm subsidy needs to be controlled.
@sumitsaharan
@sumitsaharan 21 күн бұрын
1. Selling dollars and buying gold (most EM CBs are not just on buying spree but also bringing it home) is a winning strategy when the dollar is overinflated compared with all major currencies. 2. Poor fiscal management in US is pushing their yields up, the yield differential on a 10 yr bond with India has reduced to a historic low of 2.5 percent. If it was not a sharp spike from 75 to 83 in 2022 due to ukraine war, the currency would have been 80ish per the inflation differential logic. 3. Listen to Russel Napier if you will, you will get the idea how china’s manipulation of its currency was instrumental in driving consumption growth in US, with the RMB moving very little for 2 decades despite the exports surging multifolds. With interest rate parities and other theories of economics, chinese RMB was worth more vs USD, if not less.
@saurabhfadia5752
@saurabhfadia5752 23 күн бұрын
RBI may be pegging the dollar to limit inflation which is a major KPI for RBI. Cheaper rupee will make oil cheaper and which will keep inflation in check. Why should everything be seen from the prism of politics or nationalism?
@sekhariyer3980
@sekhariyer3980 23 күн бұрын
Extreme one sided view . If rupee depreciated at faster rate then IT & pharma exports will be high . So will be the inflation & low FDI as the currency is no longer stable to do FDI & FII higher investments.
@anuprungta8181
@anuprungta8181 22 күн бұрын
I will rather believe in RBI than all and sundry economists like Arvind Subramanian RBI governor knows what is good for the country
@Wolfa-tr5sq
@Wolfa-tr5sq 18 күн бұрын
Exactly lol. He in fact lost me the moment he mentioned Subramanian haha.
@TejasJain1991
@TejasJain1991 23 күн бұрын
You force non-economists to watch your video twice / thrice, Shekhar! Excellent information as always! It definitely brings in a new perspective to the age old misconception about a stronger currency being better than a weaker one.
@JohnsonAlima
@JohnsonAlima 22 күн бұрын
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@shayelynne 22 күн бұрын
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@JohnsonAlima 22 күн бұрын
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@deloraprange 22 күн бұрын
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@Georgesam385 22 күн бұрын
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@GeorgeDickey-rw4hj 22 күн бұрын
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@avirajbanerjee6844
@avirajbanerjee6844 23 күн бұрын
Mr. Gupta, perhaps you should have spoken to your staff economist before posting this video. The primary factor that determines exchange rates is relative inflation rates between the 2 markets you want to compare. In this case the US and India. Prior to the inflation targeting regime, average rate of inflation used to average between 8 to 12 percent. Over the last 11 years it has ranged form 2 to 6 percent, and on rare occasions breached those barriers both ways, i.e. going below 2 for a while and also a little above 6 for a while. At any rate the US has managed to keep their inflation rate at 2 percent historically. So instead of having a relative inflation gap of 6 to 10 percent before 2014, we have been able to stabilize the gap to 2 to 4 percent. The decline in average inflation rate has mostly been market driven, with better fiscal management and the formalization of the economy. When you have nearly 200 million Indians participating in the stock market, that will have put an upward pressure on the exchange rate, as even if FIIs sell the significantly larger number of domestic investors in the market can minimize any drastic negative impact the selling off by FIIs have on the Indian financial system. The one last thing I would like to point out is we are now doing all our trade with Russia in Rupees and Rubles. So any dollars we might have needed to buy oil or any thing else from the Russians previously is no longer required. Therefore RBI does have the luxury of selling dollars it does not need to buy oil from Russia that it would have previously have needed in reserves, Further we are buying oil from Russia at a discounted rate and selling it to many countries especially in Europe at a markup as that is what a good business man would do when such a chance for arbitrage exists. This is purely market driven and not a sign of a mai bap Sarkar. The recent stability of the Rupee has more to do with the new conditions prevailing in the global markets than any unnecessary intervention on the RBIs part. Ant if anyone thinks Russia will not sell us any more oil in Rupees because they can not use it, that has been proven wrong. We have been trading with Russia without using the dollar for over two years now. If the Russians could not sell us the oil for any thing of real value in exchange for the oil supplies, they would have halted exports a long time ago. Despite what Brown Sahibs educated in Ivey league schools think, and regurgitate as if they are a priest of some God's temple, perhaps you might want to talk to people who are capable of independent thinking, before producing such videos. The world is changing.
@prashanthkamath7437
@prashanthkamath7437 22 күн бұрын
Another way of looking at it is this: Have the foreign exchange reserves increased or decreased from 2022. They have increased. It is more complex than that. One point I would like to make is that, post the pandemic, when the developed world was hit by inflation, India had a sedate inflation regime. There are complex elements at play. I doubt even the central bank or the economists really understand them. Interest rate and inflation rate differentials. Terms of trade - Is what is produced in India more valuable than it was a year ago. This is relative. If the Indian goods and services bundle gains by 2%, and another country one's gains by 3%, then the rupee should depreciate by 1% wrt to that country's currency. Capital inflows and outflows. Expectations and speculation. ...
@bikashsahoo360
@bikashsahoo360 22 күн бұрын
Rise in export competitiveness with depriciating currency is a simplistic economic argument, this holds in theory but not in practice for india bcz india does little value addition to imported stuff and exports it like api to medicine, engineering goods and refinary products. If import is costly then export becomes costly. This being said allowing currency to depreciate in an orderly fashion is logical but saying it has such a huge impact on export competitiveness will be an overstatement
@sudip_curiousmind
@sudip_curiousmind 23 күн бұрын
A very simple question - all this while rupee falling was a problem, now rupee not falling is the problem! What am I missing here?
@polstarnavigator
@polstarnavigator 23 күн бұрын
He explained it so well and if you still didn't understand, you may be missing a "brain" here😅
@sanaksanandan
@sanaksanandan 21 күн бұрын
@@polstarnavigator Does Gupta uncle has one?
@nileshsharma6934
@nileshsharma6934 20 күн бұрын
What about stability of the currency in order to be a global currency. Any thoughts Mr. Economist​@@polstarnavigator?
@SeeLasSee
@SeeLasSee 23 күн бұрын
The Same argument has occurred in the USA. While it remains the largest precision manufacturer in the world, the lower cost manufacturing was not lost. Since WW2 the USA had no industrial policy until 2017. Both administrations have continued the policy. National interest had been neglected for short-term profits. Less so in Europe and Japan.
@rakeshvaidyanathan2807
@rakeshvaidyanathan2807 22 күн бұрын
My understanding was rbi was buying the dollar to keep rupee from appreciating
@vedantyesade2532
@vedantyesade2532 23 күн бұрын
Hey SG, loved the episode, but I think the arguments need a bit more nuance. I'm purchasing a "Super Thanks" so that my comment catches your attention and you pin or like it for other viewers. While I am in favor of depreciating the rupee, the current trend of stable prices is not because of "currency nationalism." Here are a few points from my side: 1. In 2016, the Modi government introduced an inflation-targeting mechanism and set up the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, which was mandated to keep inflation around 4%. It has been mostly successful in this regard. As a result, the divergence between inflation in the US and India has decreased, contributing to the stabilization of the exchange rate. 2. Although India's export growth has slowed, the last few years have seen subdued global demand. However, India’s services exports have grown substantially during this period. Beyond IT services, there is growing optimism in higher-end services, thanks to Global Capability Centers (GCCs) that are setting up in India. And remember India's exports are primarily in services sector. 3. India's oil intensity by GDP has reduced significantly in the last 10 years (by more than 60%). This reduction has also contributed to exchange rate stability. So, while it may seem that the RBI is controlling exchange rates, these structural changes in India over the past few years are worth considering.
@DataCrusade1999
@DataCrusade1999 23 күн бұрын
But RBI does inject dollars in the market. While I agree with your points these points don't explain RBI intervention. Assuming your points are true then RBI shouldn't intervene as rupee will correct itself automatically but that isn't happening.
@VikasAlva
@VikasAlva 23 күн бұрын
@@DataCrusade1999 As somebody said in a comment, the RBI spent from its reserves to shore up the rupee to cushion it during the earlier phase of Russia Ukraine war. India lost some foreign reserves then. This is known to everyone and the RBI governor himself had come on TV and said the same. Those were extraordinary times and we were just getting out of Covid shock. Things have turned around pretty quickly since then and the fact that the reserves have increased quiet rapidly shows that RBI isn't doing anything wrong. As far as intervening is concerned, it's done as per a well defined mechanism set up by the RBI. Every country does that, the worst being the Federal Reserve 🙄. It's perfectly nomal
@DataCrusade1999
@DataCrusade1999 23 күн бұрын
@@VikasAlva I'm sure RBI has a mandate, but let the market decide the rate. RBI Governor took umbrage when IMF said that rupee isn't free but artificial. Sudden up and down movement is what RBI should be concerned about not keeping rupee at 84.
@prabakarsantanam2931
@prabakarsantanam2931 22 күн бұрын
I would add that fiscal deficit has been largely significantly lower. When your fiscal deficit comes down the forex rate goes stronger. This is basic macro economics. Also inflation under control is also a result to some extent of the fiscal deficit being under control. If we move to a fiscal surplus position - that is what happened in the Vajpayee regime - the rupee will go super strong or tend towards it. If I remember right we saw a visible strenghthening of the rupee during that period of Vajpayee regime. We also saw a trade surplus and the forex reserves crossing the 100 billion dollar mark at that time. So the arguments being given by Mr.Gupta are based on micro factors of forex trading whereas the macro economic factors all suggest that rupee depreciation is behind us to a large extent. In fact why do we need 700 billion dollars in forex reserves? We can invest a good portion of that money in the Indian economy instead of giving it out at abysmal rates of return to fund the dollar economy. So there are a lot of factors that are not come out. This article is not cutting the clutter in any way
@VikasAlva
@VikasAlva 22 күн бұрын
@@DataCrusade1999 I don't know what are you talking about. I have never seen rupee stuck in at 84. Rupee is at 84 now, it wasn't so just a month ago. I dont think RBI has any intention to keep rupee at any particular level, it just wants it to be stable. This is evident from the Governor's commentaries and interviews. It has slipped in its value steadily in the last two years
@Cancan-ts3hv
@Cancan-ts3hv 23 күн бұрын
A couple of economist think they are better than the people on the job.. 🗑 report..
@sharanbansal1897
@sharanbansal1897 22 күн бұрын
Shekhar ji , sorry to say but two very important data points you’ve missed out on : 1. The currency depreciation of any developing economy has to be seen in comparison to the currency performance of other similar size emerging economies . 2. It is perhaps not correct to assume that export performance is hindered by a non depreciating rupee only - being an exporter I can tell you that there are a whole plethora of reasons for low export performance from india - some of them being - large economies like Europe doing poorly , global trade uncertainties due to conflicts , high import duties in india for key raw materials , export incentives being reduced by Modi govt in india as an act of fiscal prudence . 3. Another big reason for low exports is also the high domestic demand in india presently where a lot of producers just don’t have the time to focus on exports .
@SamirSeth
@SamirSeth 23 күн бұрын
This is rather one-sided. Maybe Mr. Gupta should at least quote what our excellent RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has said on this matter: “Rupee is a freely floating currency and its exchange rate is market-determined, RBI doesn’t have any fixed exchange rate in mind. The RBI intervenes to curb excess volatility and anchoring expectations," - It seems he is very clear, and doing a great job - increasing our reserves by about 100 billion or so in the last year and a half, while reducing unnecessary volatility caused by temporary, speculative flows.
@ashutoshpandeyz4508
@ashutoshpandeyz4508 23 күн бұрын
This is Mr Gupta not owns story. The story is ordered by someone else..
@SamirSeth
@SamirSeth 22 күн бұрын
@@ashutoshpandeyz4508 It's sad to say that you are probably right. This is hardly surprising news - as Shaktikanta Das says : "After all, this is the very purpose for which we had accumulated reserves when the capital inflows were strong. And, may I add, you buy an umbrella to use it when it rains!,". Why not present this side of the story - which is quite simple and commonsensical?
@devilsmirk5826
@devilsmirk5826 22 күн бұрын
@@SamirSeth That's not what he said, money being freely floated is comparative to the previous regime of license-raj, however as was apparent from the sources that were shown in this piece the govt is trying to meddle in the exchange rate more as it used to do few years ago.
@SamirSeth
@SamirSeth 22 күн бұрын
@@devilsmirk5826 What Mr. Gupta is doing is conflating managing volatility and keeping rupee high. The RBI governor is very clear that he is only ensuring volatility (caused by speculative / temporary inflows or outflows) is kept low. This is not "meddling" - this is one of the reasons we have accumulated reserves in the first place.
@devilsmirk5826
@devilsmirk5826 22 күн бұрын
@@SamirSeth The line b/w what meddling and "ensuring volatility" seems to be quiet thin in your case, if artificially keeping currency high for a 5 year period is not meddling then what is?
@MrPoornakumar
@MrPoornakumar 14 күн бұрын
Key factor in India's foreign trade is going to be reduction of our imports from PRC with the slogan of Atma-nirbharata (self sufficiency). The stable & long term strategy lies in copious production of Si metal & ICs called "chips" (at least the low-end chips the advanced producers have moved away from, but have a huge demand in India & otherwise). If India sets her mind in it, she can become a huge manufacturing hub, in global supply chain.
@hemant05
@hemant05 23 күн бұрын
Awesome episode!
@SunilNair-s5h
@SunilNair-s5h 3 күн бұрын
Great analysis Guptaji
@nimaybolar
@nimaybolar 22 күн бұрын
we should focus on improving the quality of our exports and building resilient customer bases, more than worrying about making our exports being "more expensive" and losing their competitiveness. The better our products the more they will withstand an appreciation of the ruppee. Yes this can be debated back and forth, but this is just my opinion ::)
@ch1234ak
@ch1234ak 23 күн бұрын
India still imports a lot of oil....so a big rupee depreciation may not be good
@rex_schd
@rex_schd 22 күн бұрын
dollar Rupee exhange rate : How it affects a common man ? This is happened to me I bought external hard drive for 8,500 Rupees in 2021 . Yesterday in 2024 I bought same HD for 10,400
@jnanadas1250
@jnanadas1250 21 күн бұрын
Couple of things Mr Gupta missed here is 1) if the price of Gold rises, then the govt will run into trouble because it created SGB without holding any gold. 2) the weeker currency is net beneficial for a country if the country is in trade surplus. Thats is simply not true if the country is in trade deficit. 3) India is a oil importer country, if rupee depreciates then the higher price of oil will lead to higher inflation which will be a problem. 4) Holding an ever increasing amount of dollar reserves is not not great compared to holding an ever increasing amount of gold which RBI is currently doing, because the value of dollar depreciates where as gold appreciates.
@gauravtamhane
@gauravtamhane 19 күн бұрын
Buddy why do you say that GOI holds no gold against SGBs. At last count the GOI has reserves of 840 tonnes which are more than 5x of all the SGBs issued.
@jnanadas1250
@jnanadas1250 19 күн бұрын
@@gauravtamhane Thats because that 840 tonnes of gold isnt against SGB. That is national gold of the country and belongs to every citizen of that county. THAT GOLD WILL NOT BE USED TO GIVE THE MONEY BACK AGAINST SGB. If push comes to shove, the govt will rather print the money. ALSO GOI cant use that gold to settle SGB because there are legal hurdles as well.
@JohnWatson-h4g
@JohnWatson-h4g 23 күн бұрын
A GOOD REPORT... Thanks
@Peaceforall10
@Peaceforall10 23 күн бұрын
India’s best bet is to deal and buy crude oil in non dollar currency. Except for oil other commodities can be bought in dollar and US can to convinced to see this as an exception
@dhumaladitya
@dhumaladitya 23 күн бұрын
Just stop intervening unless it's really necessary!!
@neelabh1745
@neelabh1745 18 күн бұрын
Before anything, I want to make something very clear. I used to sell a bag for ₹8500 in 2020. That was $115, now it’s $95 give or take. You know what’s not gone down? International shipping rates. Barely anyone is India is buying at these prices in India, to ship to UK, my total cost ₹12,0000 total. In 2023, I have to change my price everyday to justify why I suddenly need to change ₹18,000 while incurring lower profit for the same bag and feel like my work isn’t worth anything. Shipping cost is worth more than product, bye bye business. Secondly, I’d like to point out that this is a Completely flawed ideology. Competitiveness of economy should be based on development of value added products and cannot be compared to essential commodities. Onions and pencils, both are basic and essential products. It is essential to keep these commodities at a fixed rate to ensure stability. This idea of letting pencils and onions fluctuate is going to collapse the value added section of the economy. Market economies work very different from how you’ve explained, governments play a large role even in the west to balance the currency value. On the other hand, If the free market should flow based on your ideology, why artificially horde the dollar rather than letting the market take charge? What was the point of having foreign exchange reserve if not to balance the rupee value? On the last point, artificially subsidising import goes against the idea of self sustainability thay India prides itself. Also this subsidy only benefits large corporations and businesses and devastates locally owned business and high value export products. It’s a travesty to see such a complex topic be so badly analysed and explained.
@DataCrusade1999
@DataCrusade1999 23 күн бұрын
Shaktikant Das rebuked IMF when they said in a report that Indian currency is not free but artificial. Now here we are.
@giffenman
@giffenman 22 күн бұрын
Currency nationalism has not worked according to Guptajee: what about China?
@maniaphobia4719
@maniaphobia4719 23 күн бұрын
If Exports have come down to 50 percent , How the Forex Reserves have gone upto Reasonable/ Satisfactory levels ; Is it by magic (or ) Is there any logic ; What the Finance Minister / RBI Governor has to say on this !!!!!! Media talks are OK and informative ( mostly highly opinionated) as they do not have to walk the talk !!!!!
@awadheshkalia
@awadheshkalia 23 күн бұрын
An excellent choice of CTC today. It’s something that should be more in news and there should be more opinions in print and video media. SG sounded careful in expressing opinion but nevertheless the concern was evident. I believe, that’s, as SG mentioned, because the economic editor is away. Exports coming down by 50% is a huge concern. We should be looking at experts on suggestions on how to raise the exports and at govt on the steps being taken to shore up the exports. I hope there is a review of progress on this on CTC after a quarter. This CTC should be viewed as sounding the bugle on this slippage of exports.
@AB034TX
@AB034TX 23 күн бұрын
Much needed information.
@akomurav
@akomurav 21 күн бұрын
If that is the case … US would have never used its strategic oil reserves to manipulate crude prices … Countries are sensitive to some commodities.. so we cant use the same brush
@continuity1845
@continuity1845 19 күн бұрын
Always have this argument of opposing the currency manipulation but in 2014 rate was 60 ..but now it is in 80s...but what about exports growth So don't give a blunt argument in favour to it over export competition
@nileshsharma6934
@nileshsharma6934 20 күн бұрын
I am buying his argument totally
@deepakjoshi5827
@deepakjoshi5827 23 күн бұрын
We are giving back dollars to USA which is printing it rekalessly . Why hold a currency which you know has no actual strength ?
@thecomment9489
@thecomment9489 22 күн бұрын
Rupee depreciation is being promoted probably to sell more and more Indian assets and resources to US oligarchs who can print money at will.
@prembagui7104
@prembagui7104 23 күн бұрын
The movement of our currency on a bad day is something to see. The next day after that, you'll get a better understanding of the policy than any economic article can give you. If the rupee starts the day by depreciating a lot, it usually goes back up to a higher level by the end of the day. But the next day it covers the gap. The RBI is trying to make the rupee weaker against developing countries and stronger against developed countries, which actually hurts both imports and exports.
@jojosoni
@jojosoni 22 күн бұрын
Strong or weak doesn't matter as long as it is stable.
@5amyak
@5amyak 23 күн бұрын
SG is too cautious, this one needed an expert as well. This is a very important topic.
@psenthilkumaran6092
@psenthilkumaran6092 23 күн бұрын
It is with the assumption that Dollar is going to be strong currency for ever. We need to move out of Dollar slowly. World leaders are now planning to bring down its dominance. Then you may have to rewrite your analysis.
@amartyaray
@amartyaray 23 күн бұрын
The onion analogy for currency was naive - at many levels; perhaps, borderline childish. I think: though journalists, as individuals, ought to have the right to personal opinion, they shouldn't be allowed to express such opinions via journalistic means.
@devilsmirk5826
@devilsmirk5826 22 күн бұрын
Can you present why it's childish?
@amartyaray
@amartyaray 22 күн бұрын
@devilsmirk5826 let's ask TCA Sharad Raghavan & Radhika Pandey - upon their return. :)
@devarsinegi3217
@devarsinegi3217 23 күн бұрын
Very good analysis Sir!
@jaydeepgadhavi5465
@jaydeepgadhavi5465 23 күн бұрын
Has anyone seen the movie 'Shakti' starring Nana Patekar? Karishma kapoor gives SRK US dollars & said $1 = 48 INR. SRK in the climax kept on repeating 48, 48. And today USD 1 is......... Well
@Sach973
@Sach973 23 күн бұрын
Not an expert but I think the pencil analogy is bad. If government fixed pencil price artificially then that would be like doing it out of thin air unlike central bank selling dollars to satiate the dollar demand.
@nrusimha11
@nrusimha11 23 күн бұрын
I remember the headlines when Bharat's USD reserves were just shy of $600B. There were breathless headlines from the gyani every time they dropped by $1B. I now suspect there was some wider coordination behind the headlines.
@arindamkumar7725
@arindamkumar7725 22 күн бұрын
Let the ruppe be flexible and remove import duties in crude oil and gold
@Pvm0601
@Pvm0601 23 күн бұрын
These articles are too theoretical. Practically, stable & predictable exchange rates are better for business people. Forex reserve of 700 billion is too much for India.
@ASingh1699k
@ASingh1699k 20 күн бұрын
Does that include adani?
@gargsamyt
@gargsamyt 19 күн бұрын
The amount of borrowing & money printing done by the US is insane. Any other nation that does it, will find their currency worthless, inflation at 1 million % & the economy collapsing. The way the US escapes this fate is by controlling the Fx price discovery mechanism
@whaddoiknow6519
@whaddoiknow6519 22 күн бұрын
If imports exceed exports, then it seems to me having a weak currency hurts you, and vice versa. It is also true that if your currency strengthens, exports suffer, so the moral of the story is clear to my simple minded brain. For a strong kick-butt economy, reduce your imports relative to your exports. This is what China has done, and now they are kicking butt. Import substitution is the key, and this does not happen overnight. China started with cheap plastic toys and chairs and tables and moved up to electric fans and refrigerators, then to solar panels and batteries, and are now making electric cars. This is not just a matter of currency manipulation -- they are actually making stuff, and pretty good stuff at that.
@jackbal7623
@jackbal7623 23 күн бұрын
The Rupee is tied to the US dollar. The US dollar is too high so, the Indian Rupee is too high. Compared to other currencies, It is doing just fine.
@ud1976
@ud1976 23 күн бұрын
Well explained, Prof Gupta. The oil import subsidy concept in particular should reach the powers that be.
@mopash
@mopash 23 күн бұрын
It’s good to declutter but you try and declutter so much that it all becomes a mess and I lose the track as to what are trying to say.
@sandeepwagh
@sandeepwagh 23 күн бұрын
Sound is too low .. check other sites and podcasts.. compared to them it's low
@jigjagjoo
@jigjagjoo 22 күн бұрын
How convenient to remember 4 years of Bajpai govt and jump to 12 years of modi govt saying , they had 400 billions of reserves, this intelligent guy scapes the entire 10 years of Manmohan singh government . Best of godies
@umangdesai4136
@umangdesai4136 23 күн бұрын
So many loopholes and oversight in this piece! 1. Inflation has been curtailed in Modi's second term (Modi doesn't deserve all the credit there, barring some like buying oil from Russia). 2.Currency valuation depends a lot on country's economic activities, exports and imports. We still have higher imports compared to export. 3. Modi govt has been punching above their weights in international standing for India - much more successfully, and at that table the countries with more stable currencies have a better say on matters. 4. If India wants other countries to do trade in our currency, our currency must have stability which attracts them to save in our currency. 5. Weak currency doesn't always mean higher exports. If so Zibambwe, Argentina, Venezuela etc would have been export powerhouse of the world! All above points and many more that I couldn't think on my feet have been missing in this piece!
@Asura_clan
@Asura_clan 23 күн бұрын
But we just took 60% of gold reserves from the bank of england
@rajx7120
@rajx7120 23 күн бұрын
​@@Asura_clanThat gold is owned by India only. Just that location was changed. These days, you never know, if West can confiscate our reserves, like they did with Russia's dollars.
@Asura_clan
@Asura_clan 23 күн бұрын
@rajx7120 yeah
@abhiwins123
@abhiwins123 23 күн бұрын
@umang your points sound nice but aren't supported by economics. As a MSME manufacturer, imports are cheaper than what we produce. We are subsidizing the imports, rolling carpet to them so that we die of starvation. Before you accuse me of illiterate, I have MBA in finance from very reputed college. ✌️
@ohboeeboee
@ohboeeboee 22 күн бұрын
​@@abhiwins123 you lost me at subsidising imports!!!
@mg.f.9023
@mg.f.9023 23 күн бұрын
Tourism in India has a tremendous potential to earn foreign currency besides export of goods and services. Only if the law and order situation in our country was not getting from bad to worse. Single women around the world have increased solo traveling. How many women around the world would be comfortable traveling solo around India?
@Harsh-rf9k
@Harsh-rf9k 23 күн бұрын
Piyush goyal was saying that rupee is going to appreciate in future How is that possible?!
@ATK2724
@ATK2724 22 күн бұрын
All these economists are feeling sour in their mouth. History graduate had shown them their place.
@vodanor4997
@vodanor4997 18 күн бұрын
Shekhar ji, pollution level came down significantly because of investment in Sheeshmahal
@Utubeisevil
@Utubeisevil 20 күн бұрын
There is no free floating currency, by changing interest rates the federal reserve essentially affects the availability of dollars not just at local market levels but at global levels.
@Behemoth456
@Behemoth456 23 күн бұрын
Was the Ans in your explanation? Strong currency means subsidized imports. What is India looking to Import? Defense equipment. India is expecting and preparing for upcoming war.
@thecomment9489
@thecomment9489 22 күн бұрын
Strong rupee? What? Rupee was at 75 to a dollar just 3-4 years ago. Now it nearing 85 to a dollar. I don't think that counts as stronger rupee. And what exactly is India producing that is being exporting in large quantities and which other countries are not able to buy because of this so-called strong rupee? And isn't it contradictory that if the rupee weakens further then the forex will go down not up? It seems like we are in the same era as Russia was in 1990s during which the Western puppet Yeltsin weakened the rouble and Russian assets were sold to Western oligarchs. Thankfully for Russia they had Putin after that horrible saga ended. Will we find our Putin?
@ravinakuwar1407
@ravinakuwar1407 23 күн бұрын
Weaker Rupee as compared to USD is a lifeline for NRIs. Whose entire existence is dependent upon this high Exchange Rate between USD & INR. Which makes a half decent salary of 70,000 USD per annum in USA to 6 million INR in India.
@gurusastropalmistry2214
@gurusastropalmistry2214 21 күн бұрын
Not true. NRIs who remitted money in 2014 and earned interest on those deposits,have lost all the gains because inr has depreciated by more than 38% in last 8 years
@PseudoProphet
@PseudoProphet 23 күн бұрын
We should let the market decide what it should be. That's the way we can easily avoid middle income trap and keep consumption high.
@sivayyanaiduakula9543
@sivayyanaiduakula9543 18 күн бұрын
Our government should not even control crude oil
@ATK2724
@ATK2724 22 күн бұрын
So RBI is keeping ruppee strong while at the same time growing its forex kitty. Maybe these economist need to get their head checked.
@gautamganguli1221
@gautamganguli1221 19 күн бұрын
I disagree with Subramaniam's view. As you have observed yourself- the exchange rate with the dollar is a matter of fierce debate between economists. The RBI's job is to act as a shock absorber between the consumer and the market and to stabilize the rupee -dollar rate as far as possible; slow down an abrupt rate of change which delivers more of a shock than the same change compounded over time. And to say-" oh RBI lost x billions" is disingenuous because they make no comment when RBI saves the same amount at another time. And to adopt the US disapproval of "interfering with the market" is wrong. They evangelize for US benefit. The market can deal massive blows. This is a job for the RBI and the Finance Ministry- not sundry economists.
@vicky7100
@vicky7100 22 күн бұрын
@22:08Crux of this episode is "All Economics is Politics" No wonder so subramnium and josh felman disguised their political will as economic hypothesis .
@ArkoProvoMukherjee
@ArkoProvoMukherjee 23 күн бұрын
Thanks!
@ThePrintIndia
@ThePrintIndia 21 күн бұрын
Dear Arko, Thank you for supporting our journalism!
@billumandal
@billumandal 22 күн бұрын
This is a joke of an article. The market value of the rupee would be higher if it’s allowed to float. The economist at the helm of ThePrint seem to only look at trade forgetting capital import and remittances.
@lordabhikingfisher8087
@lordabhikingfisher8087 21 күн бұрын
India should make Re fully convertible. This artificial pegging does not work in this day and age.
@manukunder
@manukunder 23 күн бұрын
Sir the argument you are making was built in response to East Asian financial crisis. The targeted countries pegged their currency and their financial system let in big flow of short term debt as they had no capital control. The crisis was planned well to exploit this weekenss, when Wall Street triggered their exit of short term debts and hedge funds started selling targeted currencies, currancies had to be devalued as US blocked other countries to lend USD and wanted IMF to interfere in order to impose Washington consensus which would be in their benifit. Wall street and US was the sole superpower then and it was no use negotiating or fighting them, so in order to prevent it countries started building larger reserves and putting capital control on short term debts. Also the other reason was to build savings for imports. The conditions are different now, both US and Wall Street are not sole superpowers, while US is volnerable due to its high debt and weekening millitery and Wall Street is in old system driven by greed that would self canabilise itself if it stretches too much. There are many other countries with sufficient USD reserve to lend now as seen with crisis in Srilanka and Pakistan which was not possible earlier and India has capital control and strong domestic financial system to counter sudden rugpull. India might be joining other countries to lower its USD reserve as it can use the opportunity to push its own currency system for international patment. The savings it can get from holding billions USD bonds at 2-3% rates leading to loss of over 4-5% annually due to inflation and capital loss will also help indian ecconomy a lot if it can pull this off!
@nitinpatel1039
@nitinpatel1039 23 күн бұрын
One of the most developed economy south korea has even worse dollar won ratio than rupee as long as u have strong macroeconomic fundamentals, this debate over rupee-dollar is futile, rbi now has close 700 billion dollars foreign reserve any heavy fluctuations will be easily handled by them,
@mg.f.9023
@mg.f.9023 23 күн бұрын
the growing trade deficit with South Korea, which stood at about $9.5 billion in 2021-22,
@srinivasanvedantam7964
@srinivasanvedantam7964 22 күн бұрын
I think the author is one sided without understanding grass level
@homt7427
@homt7427 23 күн бұрын
Currency speculators getting pinched hard.. flexible or speculative
@NihalRanjan
@NihalRanjan 22 күн бұрын
Well articulation. I guess Erdogan also followed similar and now Turkey is in big trouble
@thakurvk
@thakurvk 22 күн бұрын
One sided and biased view . India avoids western pressure by balancing exports + remittances with imports. Economy with such a political bias is very clear .
@kallachi729
@kallachi729 23 күн бұрын
Are we to understand that India the experts in Government etc. do not know what they are doing?
@divyang4482
@divyang4482 17 күн бұрын
China's currency manipulation help them to make their export competitive. but it is not discuss at all.
@Kundanagaricookingchannel
@Kundanagaricookingchannel 22 күн бұрын
Thank u sir
@govindapoduvalkg2889
@govindapoduvalkg2889 23 күн бұрын
The portion on effect on imports is not at all convincing.
@ckakunje
@ckakunje 22 күн бұрын
What is the point of reading some report and telling a story without bringing any counter point or doing any research?
@mg.f.9023
@mg.f.9023 23 күн бұрын
Is FII’s outflow because SIBI’s credibility has been undermined?
@rajx7120
@rajx7120 23 күн бұрын
FII outflow happens when world starts buying more dollars, to safeguard their money. This happens when:- a) US Fed raises interest rates. b) there is global recession fears c) war like situation in the world. a) is not true anymore as Fed has cut rates. But b) and c) are quite true.
@Pooja-db9me
@Pooja-db9me 22 күн бұрын
SG Sir you should stick to politics and history. If you try to mix politics and economics then there is more clutter. How does reducing import tariff's reduce forex outflow? Instead lower prices will further increase imports resulting increased forex outflow putting further pressure on the rate of the rupee. There are far more topics up your street that you should address.
@AkshatSharma1505
@AkshatSharma1505 20 күн бұрын
One case I can see lower import tariffs decreasing forex outflow is if the imports in question are goods needed in the supply chain for the manufacturing of a value added final product (kind of like how we import crude oil and export petroleum derived products).
@manjulashanmugasundaram706
@manjulashanmugasundaram706 23 күн бұрын
Happy Deepawali Professor
@rohanch07
@rohanch07 22 күн бұрын
In this one Couptaji shows that he has no friggin clue.
@HRC294
@HRC294 21 күн бұрын
This a bad one Guptaji. There are so many omissions, commissions, and neglects in today's videos that frankly one can write a thesis on loopholes in this video. I will point one - The author of the paper argues that there is a fall in exports after 2019 - Well we have had a triple whammy of COVID, the Ukraine war, and the Gaza War which has created enormous supply chains and economic issues. This is the main issue not the RBI currency buyouts. RBI buys and sells dollars in a free market. It does not set the rate by diktat. All Shekharji says here can be considered meaningful if RBI did that. Currency buying and selling is legal and done by all. Nothing wrong there. I will not make other points. Almost the entire comment section has counter-argued with important points. Today's video reads more like propaganda.👎
@PG-fy2oo
@PG-fy2oo 22 күн бұрын
Economists should tell not ask?
@glenmascarenhas7885
@glenmascarenhas7885 22 күн бұрын
Rupee is in the ICU
@abhiwins123
@abhiwins123 23 күн бұрын
Is government artificially keeping rupee stable so as to keep big traders happy on cost of MSME development? If rupee gets weaker(street price)i.e 90-95rs to dollar, our MSME can double or triple the exports as we become competitive. No wonder modi is surrounded by importers at dinners and MSME is for only photo covers
@dilsekibaat529
@dilsekibaat529 22 күн бұрын
This is what happens when a political news editor tries to become financial analyst One way thought if at all you were to give figures should have been 2004 to 2014 n 2014 to 2024 Export is on Decline as after 2 years were lost due to covid Comparing a control on INR with 700 biiion in kitty woth Soviets is comparing apple with oranges. Should have contacted someone in RBI to take there view point also
@essm4179
@essm4179 23 күн бұрын
Very bad analysis. As per your argument, China which pegged it's exchange rate to the Dollar for the last 2 decades was foolish? There are trade offs in each scenario and the Indian Government economic leadership decides to what's in the best long term interest of India, according to the continuously evolving macro conditions and Geo politics.
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