3 More Months Until it Begins...

[@bravosresearch]

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[@WhatsYourDadSnap]

I've never understood saying a strong wallstreet is a strong economy. It's like 9 rich guys.

[@rrni2343]

its modern day feudalism, when the lords are inconvenienced their subjects are deliberately put through hell.

[@derbacksteinbacker4942]

Buffet going cash is probably the biggest red flag at the moment

[@choski76]

He can wait a long time. He's been getting ready for a few years. What's he gonna buy? What are his targets? Banks? Finance? Tech?

[@jessematheny3636]

ya Im all cash as of last week im holding hysa and seeing how this plays out.

[@raphael39]

Luckly for you he did it on apple which is legit to cash out and 2 months before when we hadn’t proof of employment showing that the econmy is much more resilient than what all experts were thinking. So sure need cash I have a lot ready but the crisis scenario that we see everywhere excepts with global wars and the fights in Middle East that need to stop the situation is not as alarming…

[@S1n1st3r0n3]

"Picking up nickels in front of the steamroller". Then suddenly you realize the steamroller is really a train.

[@whatthefunction9140]

3 month from now is when people will start saying. "I guess this time is different"

[@I_am_Raziel]

XD

[@ghosthdel3098]

this year is different

[@gremlin8604]

I almost clicked off the video because of some "red flags": - 0:46 Infographics without actual values or axis - Mixing graphs together to show a relation, but showing only one of them (the result of an action) when you give a name to this relation 1:52 - "filing for unemployment *every week*" (mixes different units (per week/per year + a "zoom out" on years axis without grid, no specifics on how the units are aligned (average of initial claims per week throughout the year, I assume) 4:00 My brain screamed *ffffraud alert!* automatically, but the calm voice and the actual sources that are provided to the main graphs (and mainly because of a bunch of own free time, ofc) made me consider, and, eventually, actually finding the sources themselves and diving into the whole ocean of articles and information online on the topic, and after hours of own research I can definitely and proudly say: ....uh, I guess your prediction is right? Thanks for the video.

[@avy1]

Shut up nerd

[@TNTspaz]

Everyone thought things were going great in 2008 as well. Every time someone says the economy is booming. I get deja vu. Everyone is struggling but the economy is "booming"

[@Divedown_25]

I am puzzled by the fact that 1929 data is still used as relevant almost 100 years later with all the changes that has taken place in the world? Is the population and financial market acting the same aw we did 100 years ago?

[@oraclechallenge]

Assessment of Recession Probability Next 1 Month: Probability: Low Rationale: Economic indicators like a strong stock market and declining inflation suggest continued short-term stability. Immediate recession risk is minimal. Next 3 Months: Probability: Low to Moderate Rationale: While the economy appears stable, the lagged effects of earlier rate hikes might begin to surface. However, the Fed's shift toward rate cuts could mitigate these effects. Next 6 Months: Probability: Moderate Rationale: Six months out is a window where delayed impacts of past monetary tightening may coincide with potential overreactions in financial markets. If corporate earnings falter or consumer spending declines, recession risks increase. Next 12 Months: Probability: Moderate to High Rationale: Over a year, the cumulative effects of prior rate hikes, potential market corrections, and global economic factors could elevate recession risks. The uninversion of the yield curve, historically, has sometimes preceded economic downturns.

[@rajeshraut6447]

Initial Jobless Claims is broken because it does not include voluntary layoffs. Claims are only paid for involuntary layoffs. Most layoffs by large corporations are voluntary layoffs which is why Claims have not reflected the announced layoffs by tech giants.

[@criminalelement494]

Then it’s good that is not reported. People who quit shouldn’t count.

[@Dr.HowieFeltersnatch]

The chart is the chart

[@squeaky_honda]

Voluntary layoffs due to "Back to the office, no more WFH" dilemmas, right?

[@muds17]

Reading all the comments 1 month later 😂😂.

[@Alex-jh6wr]

simple answer: they do not start the recession before election😀

[@Chosima]

Because, it's election year which means there is no recession this year.

[@Hesse-Kassel]

I got 60k now and I got no where to dump, everything is jacked up in the stock market.

[@rice4u]

can we define what a recession? the small business owners I've talked to and amount closed down stores, paint a very different picture, than what politicians and media say it is. I overheard a woman at the mall telling her husband which credit card to use since all the other 3 are maxed out

[@lisagarcia3104]

I go for scenario B since I see it daily at my job, several people looking for job and we are cutting labor, on the other hand my opinion, not advice the curve will reach over 1% before everything start to plummet!

[@simonsays2774]

3:09 no argument. The stock market moved sideways/downwards from July 2007. The yield curve correctly predicted the recession, only the NBER labeled the wrong time of the recession. It started in July 2007, followed by another crack-up boom and then the big sell-off. The gray recession bars are not meaningful because the NBER has no clue.

[@mikewood8695]

US jobs is rubbish US figures - look under the hood and you see it's loads of part time government jobs and also a few part time bar and restaurant jobs - full time well paid jobs are dropping hard and fast - which is what we're seeing in corporate earnings announcements

[@walkingDaLine100]

When most financial markets are propped up on fake liquidity for crazy leverage... I don't have any doubts the market will crash.... just wonder how long hedge funds and market makers can keep playing this game. The music is gonna stop.

[@squeaky_honda]

I wonder if things today continue to be bullish due to: - lots of retail investors (it's easier to invest/trade), propping-up the market a tiny bit - the 0% interest rates for a decade, then a massive inflation for a year, affecting the yields. - millennials turning NEET (work is pointless if you can't buy a house/etc, and you can survive with little nowadays), so you see lower unemployment % while actually fewer people are employed. - debt-ridden people taking multiple part-time jobs (skewing the jobs-reports heavily) - more people are moving away from full-time jobs, into part-time jobs (you can see it in the FED reports) Negatives: - With this inflation, companies are profiteering on the backs of customers (shrinkflation). Until people can't buy things like iPhones anymore, thus some companies take a hit. I'm probably wrong, and the indicator is still valid.

[@Avo7bProject]

Plus the convenience of reporting "good" job numbers prior to the election, which can be revised retroactively after it.

[@essenceofveles]

Let's see how this ages...

[@IndieLambda]

The reason why the curves have changed is because we're transitioning to a new system, have been for slightly over a decade, we are moving away from Neo Liberalism, into Techno Feudalism, we're diving deeper into late stage capitalism. The richest people will be fine in this next recession, if we still can call it that, we might need a new name for a new type of event, but regular people, low wage workers, are already starting to go through hell, things might look stable, but workers lives are still worsening.

[@jacksonlange9521]

The unemployment issue in America is one of the most unreported things ever. The issue is with the initial claims graph as it only accounts for people actively receiving unemployment from their State's department of revenue. This does not account for anyone like college graduates from 2022, 2023, and soon to be 2024. Rumor is that over 50% of Gen Z lives with their parents. Does that mean that they cannot get corporate jobs with their new college degrees? Perhaps the corporate landlords are reaping profits with their $2,000/mo 1bed 1bath rents? Thankfully they built all of these massive apartment complexes as of 2020. -Millenials and Gen Z cannot afford single family homes. -Unemployment unreported and the highest it's ever been. (Allegedly by 2027 AI will replace 30% of American Jobs) -Student loan crisis -Tech stocks are criminally overinflated which is where a lot of NYSE players are invested. (except Buffet after he started positioning for recession.) -Boomers at some point will all sell their homes around the same period causing a major housing crash. We are in for something big and i'm not sure what will be the first domino, but I believe it will be worse than 2008.

[@michaelwiebeck3]

Housing crisis, health crisis, financial crisis, cost of living crisis, debt crisis, inflation crisis, Middle East crisis. How many crises can we endure? As I approach retirement with a solid financial cushion, I'm anxious about a potential banking crisis. Is private equity a good option to grow my money securely?

[@elephantmoney]

So what's the plan then Bravos?

[@drendelous]

1:42 it is 6am in the morning and im blind now

[@shawn576]

I'm amazed it still hasn't collapsed. Canada's economy is super fucked and RE is crashing, yet Canadian stocks are at all time highs. USA is doing better but not much. Australia is also at all time highs.

[@drury2d8]

Economics of 2008 is different. Yield curve may not be applicable to the current scenario. The number of random folks who are earning thousands through unorganized labor is significant. I have a friend who walks dogs and makes as much as a desk job. This was unthinkable a decade ago.

[@8020drummer]

Do they only cut interest rates because the economy is weakening? I thought they cut rates this latest time because inflation was under control.

[@darademangesh2223]

I'm planning to start investing in Indian stock market from May, 2025..

[@anthonybrink287]

Wouldn’t it be funny if it literally starts today

[@rizwanakarizzy8771]

Not Jan 25, but maybe Mar-Jun 25' everything falls

[@garitboothe3413]

Your content is top notch. I love how it's data-backed, and you stay flexible in for all economic outcomes.

[@markb3866]

Unusual behavior = govt is messing with the numbers

[@patmat.]

Thx for the quick reminder of the yield curve definition.

[@CsondesMateHUN]

It alignes perfectly with the election and the inauguration. Something will happen relating to that.

[@jwashy56]

Been saying this for months. The fed won't let a crash happen with the current administration, it would hand the white house to trump on a silver platter.

[@pokergeniusordonkey6517]

I agree. It makes sense that many big players hold some big decisions until closer to the election. The holiday season is also a thing that gives more clarity to the job market.

[@leonboot9312]

Probably initial panic when Trump wins or a straight up long term depression when kamala wins

[@pristinedetailing5171]

Yield curve inverted again today for a brief moment. Who decides when we are in a recession? The man behind the curtain? History also shows oil is the trigger.

[@The_MaSteR_TRADOOR]

Just short when you think it's right and if you're lucky...a recession comes in🤷‍♂

[@simonsays2774]

Nope. The war in the Middle East distorts it. The oil price is rising again because speculators are driving it up, even though there is in fact an oversupply and it should be falling sharply. You could almost think that the Democrats instructed Israel to start this war so that the oil price would stabilize before the election.

[@Avo7bProject]

I always say keep an eye on auto sales and days of inventory pipeline. Auto sales has traditionally been a good indicator entering and leaving recessions.

[@RoseBalerus]

Would love to know more about the timing between yield curve inversion and recession onset. Is there a typical lag?

[@kurtisparker]

This video is very thought provoking! I am curious if the election of Trump will make this curve perform in an unpredictable manner...since Trump is a rather unpredictable individual.

[@Whatismarketingshow]

How are you videos SO WELL EDITED. IT's crazy.

[@mikewood8695]

I don't care when the recession starts - I'm more interested on whether the US stock market has topped - and I reckon it just has, so starting to short this new bear market!!!!

[@jakubpernal3579]

Yes, yes… when the chart goes above 0, recession is supposedly coming. It's a shame you're all falling for this like lemmings. Has anyone actually asked what an inverted yield curve really means? Well, it roughly means that interest rates are going down. It's a myth that every time this happens, there’s a recession. The creator of the video only showed you what he wanted to show. There have been many situations where the yield curve inverted, and there was no recession, because there are two reasons why rates are lowered. The first reason is that the economy is in trouble, and in this case, rates are lowered to support it. The yield curve inverts, and we get the recession everyone seems to want so badly. The second reason, though, is that inflation has dropped sufficiently, and there’s no need to keep rates high-especially since the U.S. is incredibly in debt. This has nothing to do with the state of the economy. Situation number 2 is happening now: U.S. GDP is still growing, and company profits are as well. Where is this recession? Keep waiting, go on, keep waiting for a recession while I make money in the market! Just from the title of the video, you can tell it’s only about clickbait and views. I don’t know how the creator of such garbage can look at themselves in the mirror. Shameful.

[@ponyswaves8603]

It is inverted again since 1 day.... They pump the yields....

[@Mojoman49AD]

I recall lots of people in upside down mortgages with no place to refinance and craploads of credit card debt. Today, we have the same and it is exacerbated by insanely high lone rates in the open market… I’m backing out in December…

[@robmarley45]

What tool do you guys use for these charts and the animations? PowerPoint is not this good

[@NMAMxRE]

Nice analysis, hard to know from the charts presented, but current jobless claims not increasing could be a seasonality issue. Post holidays claims start to rise as cuts begin…???

[@sonpollo8995]

so what does it mean now that its inverted again?

[@simonsays2774]

It follows the falsified labor market data which, if calculated correctly, would have risen to 4.5% and not fallen to 4.1%. Falsified labor market data can be used to manipulate the yield curve downwards.

[@deseosuho]

Just that bond investors got a little ahead of themselves positioning for rapid rate cuts, and they're now predicting slower rate cuts. All FOMC statements of the last few months suggest that hikes are over and the only open question is how fast to return to what they estimate is the neutral rate... somewhere between 2% and 4%

[@Avo7bProject]

@@deseosuho That's how I see it. The current rise in rates has not spooked me out of bond holdings. I think volatility will bring us back to September's highs in bond values. Or one of the various geopolitical concerns boils too hot, and pushes a move back into the US treasury market.

[@GeorgiZahariev]

Where can I find these charts? Is it on the Bloomberg website? Can't find them there...

[@GenoLoma]

I need nickels.. lots of them actually.. How do I dance in front of the steam roller and survive..? Should we hedge against now.. or wait till the storm has knocked everything over, and buy the scraps at pennies..?

[@kiaser21]

It's a lagging indicator, anywhere from 3 - 18 months

[@WarriorsPhoto]

This is some good research. I like your way of presenting economic situations. I feel like I could do well in this downturn with the knowledge you've given me. 😊

[@ljubomirculibrk4097]

Inflation, printing money is masking things. But bying power shows all

[@rupertsmith6097]

Another thing to look at is the reverse repo as it runs down to nothing.

[@makethingshappen8427]

Higher yields on short term than long term doesnt make sense and is a sign of a euphoric market.

[@myyootube]

The creator of the yield curve inversion is the Canadian economist Campbell Harvey in his 1986 PhD thesis at the University of Chicago. He now gives very little to no weight on this metric.

[@proudbill117]

Fantastic and very well informed video! Great job

[@paulm9500]

Government deficit is the largest noise in this data - How much higher can federal debt go. That's what will define the turning point

[@gnomidomi]

Isn't this just when the fed raises the interest rates, the economy slows down, but with extra steps?

[@jordiecash]

Are banks not flush with liquidity this time around? It seems they haven’t stopped lending at all

[@marksurgeon9266]

Are you aware of the 18 year cycle? The historic date you reference all align with the 18 year cycle. There's a number of economists that have been saying around 2026 as the start of downturn for many years, and the next 1-2 years will boom quite a bit more up to the start of the downturn.

[@danpowell5286]

All this is assuming all the players remain the same, everyone of those economic meltdowns were avoidable as is the next anticipated. Since there’s a new sheriff in town and word of that remedy is whispered, we shall see. One thing is certain, if we don’t make some significant changes this system is kaput.

[@vikraal6974]

I love how youtubers diss Technical Analysis for trading stocks and then use the same Technical Analysis to claim recession is coming. I used the stones to kill the stones.

[@default_user_id]

The last trump term gave us world wide disease with recession, this one will cause Huge Depression. Especially with 200% increse in imported goods. Deportation of 90% of food workers, and massive government employee layoffs. Food rotting in the fields, job sites sitting empty for years, millions unemployed.

[@kontito2]

Great video, good job.

[@0xC47P1C3]

Dow is down 400 points today

[@queensburyio4773]

Great job, gents! We're going to get a few weeks of surprise new jobless claims over the next few weeks because of Helene. The damage to the economy has been massively understated and, IMHO, hasn't been fully priced into the equity markets. Hurricanes are typically normal occurrences for this time of year, but western NC in particular is only just now starting to emerge from an information blackhole. My very uneducated estimate is an unexpected increase of between 400k and 600k new jobless claims over the next month from this region alone, based on the region's demographics, the geographic spread of catastrophic level damage to critical infrastructure in the region, and the slow pace of recovery made exceedingly difficult by the terrain. Not to mention, that the health of the entire semiconductor industry depends on the health of this region. Nvidia's forward P/E depends on nearly perfect performance over the next two years, and if this storm disrupts the high purity quartz supply chain to any marginal degree, we could see earnings slip and then a possible deterioration in the weighted indices. I have net bearish options positions, cash, and Yen, but I've had them since August.

[@thomaskirejczyk6668]

arent the jobless claims usually revamped one year later and have a tendency to be poorer? could explain the lag or

[@rannyacernese6627]

With the bull in the China shop being elected, January sounds about right.

[@llawliet9443]

2 more months to go?

[@Currentlyhappening2]

Caught me off guard until I saw the graphs 😂😂

[@guitaringjarmin]

To really gauge the chances of a recession, you've got to compare it to economic data, however, if you believe the data currently being issued I have this wonderful bridge for you to invest in

[@ralphsimpson4593]

War Economy

[@xinglinli9874]

Now, Chinese stock market is rising in a very fast speed. I think that’s not a good signal

[@Checkm8156]

the curve looked like shit in 2020 and 2021 and 2022 but those were some of the greatest years for crypto and stocks. Whats the math there? Doesnt make sense.

[@30yearstockcycle]

How about the DJ Transportation Index? Remember Dow Theory.

[@VinNewYork-zv9rn]

Your name is Peter ? From USA you sure?

[@Ratboy2004]

B is my guess. Greed is the intent in 07 08. And we know where we are today.

[@zeecomando13]

great video!

[@oevers]

That basically means that as soon as Trump is in the White House, we might see a depression immediately afterward.

[@egv9]

when you uploaded this, inverted again

[@Gary65437]

Seems I heard rates re-inverted today..

[@TakeBackTheMoralOrder]

Another excellent video

[@ELIOSANFELIU]

Thank you guys¡¡

[@denialphasebitcoin5639]

🇺🇸 GDP is up Because war supplies on two continents

[@princecamelblu245]

There is a lot of global tension going around, isn’t that good for the American economy? Like how many countries are buying weapons from the USA. Also nato countries had to apply the 2% spending to their defense budget. America has like crazy advanced weapons. Isn’t that filling the jobs and non farm payrolls? Let’s not hope for a recession

[@Avo7bProject]

The world doesn't have to be in synch... The US weathered the Asian currency crisis of 1997-98. But the case for a US recession soon rests with so much debt and unresolved structural problems in the economy.

[@Jarjarb1nkzz]

Please make an update on this video in a few more months

[@RModillo]

Steep or inverted?

[@momobabo50]

it won't

[@michaelmurray6197]

If there is an election coming up and the current incumbent party has the ability then they will do everything possible to keep the country from going into a recession. If they lose then they no longer have any reason to prevent a recession from happening.

[@hoddtoward]

I got absolutely cooked today due to stupid hurricane hurting insurance companies lol

[@AVDS85]

Great content

[@appleztooranges]

Does it matter if Trump or Kamela wins?

[@ChickFilA_Sauce]

With the times old man! Recessions are a thing of the past!

[@scottyarellano]

X is an excellent indicator that the job market is absolutely cooked. Scenario B.

[@aaronquadd3019]

Do you think the next election can circumvent this?

[@johnmknox]

Scenario B. The jobs could be going in the same direction as the yield curve. The government and Federal Reserve could be lying about that and putting out manipulated stats. The market knows the truth though. I think we can expect that they will need to drastically cut government spending imminently.

[@derekborders9647]

Lot of unhighlighted steep sections on that plot.

[@marshonmellows]

Anddd it’s inverted again lol

[@afa304]

Love Game of Trades

[@CromLine]

What did you make this video on?