This Could be Why you Aren't Profitable at Betfair Trading!

[@simonround2439]

Psychology is the absolute key. I struggled with this for years. Now I have a semi-automated strategy for this exact reasons. I make the selections but don't watch the games or even check the scores. Because my emotions are not engaged I execute the strategy properly and make a long term profit.

[@KieMillett]

This is brilliant Simon. Psychology is something that affects us all in its own little way and you are taking the right steps to mitigate the problem for your strategies.

[@sunday8646h]

This is one of the best video ever made about anything trading though he focused on football and he's right about it all

[@KieMillett]

Thank you Sunday!

[@caeronseabourne7567]

Another brilliant vid man!

[@KieMillett]

Thanks Caeron!

[@michaelstringfellow]

Another absolutely excellent video Kie. They're getting better all the time. This one actually goes hand in hand with your "Laying The Draw" video. Question: The odds of the draw in an evenly matched game reach odds of 2.0 at roughly the 70 minute mark. You place your trade and lay the draw. A goal is scored almost immediately and you're showing 50% profit on your stake. Do you immediately cash out,, or do you let it run? If you let it run, your trade has now morphed into a time decay dependent bet. If you cash out for the 50% profit you've effectively won a bet at 1.5. This greatly increases your required strike rate as it will take 2 such winners to cover every loss. You could run a series of Monte Carlo simulations which will give you a mathematical probability, but the simple answer is that you should have modelled the game beforehand to determine the likely 1X2 result and number of goals. If you have confidence in your model this will eliminate both risk aversion and risk seeking. I'm very much looking forward to the next video, you've become my favourite KZbin channel.

[@KieMillett]

Very good analysis Michael!

[@michaelstringfellow]

@@KieMillett Thanks Kie, I'm not trying to be clever, just throwing a few seeds for possibly developing ideas for future videos.

[@jonathanjacobsson7402]

What you are saying is true, but looking at it that way, every trade you cash out is simply a bet. So if you cashed out a 90% ROI, you essentialy just won a 1.90 bet.

[@szuperpozicio]

Great video man! ;)

[@KieMillett]

Thanks much appreciated!

[@thegreens980]

And don't lay a dog or a horse! It comes back to bite you on your arse! I know,it's happened to me lots of times but now its finally sunk in that this strategy doesn't work!

[@KieMillett]

I don't think laying horses and dogs as a strategy has anything inherently wrong about it, as with any strategy is simply a matter of select the right market to apply the strategy to.

[@ultrasfener4410]

Will I be able to access your trades live by purchasing courses on patreon? I want to earn money by playing the same bets with you at the same time, is it possible?

[@KieMillett]

Hi, there are some trades on Patreon, however if you just want to blindly follow someone you are probably not in the right moment in life to be taking betting seriously.