Revealing My Football Trading Set Up
6:48
The Secret Formula to Win at Betting
18:10
Пікірлер
@stevekent3991
@stevekent3991 8 күн бұрын
There is one factor to consider, is the manager called Gareth Southgate? If the answer is Yes, place a lay bet on England to win the tournament. Even if they make the final, they will lose.
@greenscorpio1967
@greenscorpio1967 8 күн бұрын
You might aswell do a day's work to make money,it's not worth the hassle
@misocveticanin578
@misocveticanin578 8 күн бұрын
Stop betting & you make money
@TheMaggsy1
@TheMaggsy1 11 күн бұрын
Variance. Pittsburgh Phil one of the best gamblers once said he had the worst run of loses on the horse fallowed by his best run ever. 😮
@TheMaggsy1
@TheMaggsy1 11 күн бұрын
Interesting that you have to wait until 903 for the to come right. You need patience in this game. Many people give up too soon.
@omgofficialtv
@omgofficialtv 12 күн бұрын
@Kie Millet please can you please make a video with the football predictor called aisportpredictor and tell us how it works ? I saw people won high odds > 50 daily, but I don t know how to use it :(
@martinesr7198
@martinesr7198 14 күн бұрын
I doubt your model really...when you dont know what is best period lengt from past to use then you dont know what model works.period length from past is key
@greatman5836
@greatman5836 17 күн бұрын
Iceland say hello 😂
@greatman5836
@greatman5836 17 күн бұрын
I don't do single bet bro, I do Accumulator bet 😎
@pdawgbetscasually1885
@pdawgbetscasually1885 19 күн бұрын
Hey mate, long time no see. England was the only one that i was indecisive. thanks for the tactic explanation. i am not gonna write my explanations but in short here is the conclusion i came with. My selection is based on value, some selections i don't think they gonna win but i anticipate a nice swing in price so i did a dutching: Germany @6.6 [email protected] [email protected] Belgium@22 Croatia@46 Hungary@120 I might close my position on a couple selections after the group stage. Sending good vibes to you all and have fun!
@bulentklc551
@bulentklc551 20 күн бұрын
❤🖐🙏
@manuelpeteira2731
@manuelpeteira2731 21 күн бұрын
Trading sports betting dont need any historical data bookmakers spend millions to have all that system stats etc .... What you need to focus is to find value true the odds there is edge the back or lay simple as that and ignore the stats everthing have price is not about you predict right is about the price ...
@guinnessharvey4476
@guinnessharvey4476 22 күн бұрын
Great analysis but I would disagree with you about shaw playing the Guardiol role. Assuming he’s 💯 fit, I would be tempted to play Foden on the left and Bellingham as a 10 and have shaw holding the width when Foden cuts inside.
@guinnessharvey4476
@guinnessharvey4476 22 күн бұрын
I genuinely thought you meant are the team not tall enough . Which is also a fair question. For Spain maybe. But England have a pretty tall team overall.
@colinbest8610
@colinbest8610 26 күн бұрын
I will Lay England to a Liability of £100, just like I do at all major tournaments. They never let me down 🤣.
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 25 күн бұрын
Definitely seems like good value!
@richieharkness5535
@richieharkness5535 27 күн бұрын
Brilliant video ,mate . Well thought out , very informative and well presented . These are the 4 I am now using for all my trading both football and tennis .
@simonfitzgerald8255
@simonfitzgerald8255 27 күн бұрын
Come on mate no Foden and a centre back playing left back. Buddy surely just trying to get us to interact which to be fair I’m doing 😂
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 25 күн бұрын
In my hypothetical team, Trent would play RB and invert into midfield, making Branthwaite a LCB of a 3 in possession. Given Luke Shaw still looks injured, the options for left back are surely Gomez, Branthwaite, Trippier or Konsa (3 CB's and a RB). Not like Branthwaite would be miles ahead of the others, but I really like him for his physicality and his left footedness. Also on form he's probably had the best season out of them 4 imo. As for Foden we have seen how less effective he is out wide compared to playing as a 10 for about 7 years now. Unfortunately I think we lack a profile in the sqaud (presumably from LB) to effectively hold the LW position in possession whilst foden moves centrally to play alongside Jude. Perhaps Jude and Foden will work in this tournament (hopefully it will) but to me it makes no sense on paper and hasn't been great when tried for England in previous internationals.
@simonfitzgerald8255
@simonfitzgerald8255 25 күн бұрын
To be fair I wrote that at the start and it is a very interesting video. Although I disagree always good to hear other peoples opinions. I do agree on foden so I would play him as a 10 and Bellingham as an 8 behind. But let’s definitely not revert to the famous scholes playing left wing 😀
@ulfanfinneriksen4643
@ulfanfinneriksen4643 28 күн бұрын
Gareth will play Rice, Bellingham and Foden in midfield. Gordon and Saka on the wings. Palmer can sub for Foden or Saka.
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 28 күн бұрын
This would be the best version of Bellingham and Foden playing together in my opinion, it does makes the team a little lighter defensively which is why I would prefer to only play one. I just can't see Gareth going down this route though unfortunately (but hopefully I'm proved wrong).
@JamesofQPR
@JamesofQPR 28 күн бұрын
Good stuff!!!
@top11advancedtactics34
@top11advancedtactics34 28 күн бұрын
Bellingham, kane, foden are world class. They need to play. Period.
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 28 күн бұрын
I agree with them being world class, but what is the limit on how many world class players you can fit into one team. If hypothetically Mbappe, Messi, Haaland and De Bruyne were also English, would those 4 plus Kane, Jude and Foden all have to play together?
@Bruno-gj5vn
@Bruno-gj5vn 28 күн бұрын
I didn't watched the friendlies vs Ven and Brazil so I don't know this, but did Jude and Foden ever played together without Saka? I think this could work in a 4-3-3 w/Foden as RW drifting to the center and Jude as #8 on the left and Walker getting license to overlap. Saka would be a supersub.
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 28 күн бұрын
Both the Belgium and Brazil games where played without Saka. For me Saka is undroppable (I think the same is true for Gareth), I can't see Foden starting in any other position than LW or as the 10.
@ryanmirbagheri3268
@ryanmirbagheri3268 28 күн бұрын
What you're not considering is all these probabilities for each route need to be summed to reach the actual market price. yes this is supposedly the most likely route but you can't base it all on this. There are always upsets in major tournaments. I do agree that the price is too short, but i don't think its as underpriced as this video makes it out to be.
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 28 күн бұрын
I agree with your general sentiment here. The probabilities just give an approximate chance of England winning if the "most likely" route to the final occurs. There can/will be upsets of course, but in my opinion these are no less likely to happen against England than they are to happen against the other "big" nations. I think the general point is that as soon as you assume that at some point in the tournament England will have a 50/50 game, then you have to price England very short in the other knockout games to get 4.X as value odds. If England had to play two 50/50 games then it's basically impossible to get 4.X as being back value.
@johnristheanswer
@johnristheanswer 28 күн бұрын
Belgium are ranked 3rd in the world rankings. They are not "an easier game" !
@top11advancedtactics34
@top11advancedtactics34 28 күн бұрын
1 world class player. Lukaku is now international class. Courtois wont go. The big teams will beat them in 90mins
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 28 күн бұрын
England would be significantly shorter to beat Belgium than they would be to beat France. If you think France and Belgium are roughly equal then you should find Belgium (win odds: 22) to be a mega value bet if France are currently 5.4.
@johnristheanswer
@johnristheanswer 28 күн бұрын
@@KieMillett I agree. I don't think they are equal. I only mentioned the ranking.
@Antmoore80
@Antmoore80 28 күн бұрын
bellingham and foden,its the old lampard gerrard conundrum lol
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 28 күн бұрын
It's eerily similar!
@brianlaffey3117
@brianlaffey3117 28 күн бұрын
Great Analysis Kie.Brilliant video agree with you England too short
@alanhaynes9672
@alanhaynes9672 29 күн бұрын
England on paper, have the best team, No doubt about it. Trouble is that they simply do not have the mentality to win it. I may be wrong but i'd price them at 9/1 or there abouts.
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 28 күн бұрын
Personally I still have France having the best team, but it's obviously very close. Its tough to see England's mentality ever changing but it is possible (see Ben Stoke's revolution of the English test sides mentality).
@laser00
@laser00 29 күн бұрын
hi Kie ! I've waited for this ;) took england to win it all at 5.00 and i am from germany. It's time, and France is not gonna win in Germany. Just depends on Spain vs Germany, but I see Germany winning at home and joining England in the final.
@KieMillett
@KieMillett 28 күн бұрын
Germany v England final would be one for the ages!
@laser00
@laser00 28 күн бұрын
@@KieMillett yeah! especially if you guys win it in penalties finally ;)
@sirhoopalot1125
@sirhoopalot1125 29 күн бұрын
Holy shit 😮
@SuperYtc1
@SuperYtc1 Ай бұрын
Yeah, as if the betting companies aren't already doing this, with far more sophisticated models, lol.
@ehsanmirzai1074
@ehsanmirzai1074 Ай бұрын
I really like this strategy but can you make a video where you put this method in practice. Thanks
@oswaldo6494
@oswaldo6494 Ай бұрын
Amazing!! Thanks
@businessmonitor6939
@businessmonitor6939 Ай бұрын
Ben Michaels, Sports Trading Life, is one creator with good courses for beginner traders IMO.
@benjaminkimwei7689
@benjaminkimwei7689 Ай бұрын
Interesting I use Pearson's Distribution Coefficient (r) and I am getting respectable prediction percentage on Double Chances of match outcomes. I will definitely try this and see whether it can improve my ability to predict Single outcomes to a respectable degree.
@mikebloise471
@mikebloise471 Ай бұрын
Parlay or Straight Betting or Money line ?!
@louisyork8120
@louisyork8120 Ай бұрын
9:45 ... I think that the sudden shift in Arsenal's tactics caused an unforeseen challenge (out-of sample problem) for predicting the Overs market using historical data. As time passed, the market adapted, becoming more efficient and diminishing the previously identified positive expected value (EV).
@JamesofQPR
@JamesofQPR Ай бұрын
Good stuff..cheers
@pryncv
@pryncv Ай бұрын
Ciao amici inglesi, qualcuno che ha provato questa strategia, sa dirmi mediamente a che minuto si viene abbinati a 1.01? Ho un database con circa 8.500 partite sarebbe interessantissimo sapere il minuto medio di abbinamento
@LUXXY_vi
@LUXXY_vi Ай бұрын
can you make a video about how to reduce stake in lotofoot
@ashfaqahmed3926
@ashfaqahmed3926 Ай бұрын
I use betpro horse game and Greyhound how change rate odds help me
@_RACEHORSES_
@_RACEHORSES_ Ай бұрын
60% tax what a con Bet Fair trully is , just another internet con.
@brianh5075
@brianh5075 Ай бұрын
For UK based people trying out betting strategies I suggest you invest £6 a month in Gruss Betting Assistant. It is a Betfair-approved software which works best on WINDOWS, not MAC devices. It connects to your BF account. So what ? Crucially, it allows betting with 1p, 2p, 3p .... stakes. So you can safely back or lay to test out a plan, to test the results without any risk of noticeable loss. Afterwards BF will give you a good record of your bets and you can transfer this to a spreadsheet for further analysis. With a new strategy I often put on as many as 50 'fire and forget' bets - at 1p a time - and then comeback after the events to assess the BF record. That is how I came up with my own preferred strategy which has allowed me over 100 substantial lay bets - without one loss.
@thewordshed
@thewordshed Ай бұрын
The variance argument is surely as good a reason not to buy a course as it is not to sell one. Irrespective of that, the flaw in it is that you assume only one strategy is being used by the course provider. No successful trader is going to use only one strategy for this very reason. Any decent pro should be employing many strategies that will turn a profit overall, even if some are in a downswing. So we're back to the question 'Why not just scale up?' I do, however, think your points about the benefits of timesaving and undervaluing your own time are bang on, and that courses can represent a worthwhile investment if assessed in those terms, i.e. purely as learning resources.
@pnr8uk
@pnr8uk Ай бұрын
Betfair have been trying to close their Exchange down for many years now. It's so unprofitable for them compared to regular bookmakers/sportsbooks Paddy Power just want to get rid of it and are driving it into the ground. Add to this the uncertainty around affordability, cost of living crisis etc., and you can see it's a great way for PP to make it disappear. BetConnect are a true exchange. The others Smarkets, Betdaq are pure bookmakers (They ceed their own markets). However, until BetConnect get some kind of API going, it won't appeal to ladder traders etc.,/
@pnr8uk
@pnr8uk Ай бұрын
Argued this very thing many times during my early days of trading. The 'if you're so good why bother selling courses' argument. I worked in IT in the City for years making very good money until I realised I could make less money but much more easily by teaching people. No one ever called me a scammer for being a teacher/trainer. Great video again Kie
@ualterreis8220
@ualterreis8220 Ай бұрын
Hello, where can I get this spreadsheet?
@21stcenturyparadigm91
@21stcenturyparadigm91 Ай бұрын
£1 min is too high for me