This is BAD | Las Vegas Housing Just CRASHED 40%

[@williamwade6972]

The homes are not worth the asking price in Las Vegas. A home for 275k increased the price to 450k and now 400k is not a price reduction.

[@nathanpeters9515]

In real terms, prices will return to what they were, but nominally, I don’t think prices will drop very much. That’s inflation for you.

[@rdobsrenee9460]

Williams I saw that as well sooo what now?

[@rdobsrenee9460]

@@nathanpeters9515 soooo the homes will remain over priced you think?

[@nathanpeters9515]

@@rdobsrenee9460 I just don’t know, we have so much money here around Seattle that if rich foreign buyers want to pay millions cash for a basic house, they can. I think areas that are not flooded with millionaires will see prices drop.

[@clubmogambo3214]

@@nathanpeters9515 That's the problem here in Vegas. Unlike existing homes, in which the inventory has been on the increase for several months now, newly built homes at this point are not seeing any realistic price drops. This is in part due to the flood of buyers mainly from the west coast who can purchase these homes in cash. At least with brand new homes, it's still a seller's market.

[@daviddarby]

Thanks Lebo

[@leboknows]

My pleasure!

[@godfatherofcinema]

Terrific video.

[@leboknows]

Thanks my man!

[@terriesales]

Honest analysis.

[@brianpannkuk4677]

I always look forward to your videos. When is the August video coming out?

[@terriesales]

It will be interesting to hear about other states.

[@Nookster707]

I've been an Real Estate agent in Las Vegas for the last 30 years and I've lived here for 50. We're about to experience another blood bath. Investors bought everything in sight for the last 5-6 years. They're starting to bail. Forget about selling and wait. There is going to be great opportunities throughout the U.S in about 12 months.

[@artofgarduno]

my friend who works in real estate here in Vegas as an assistant never believes me when I tell him your numbers and stats he always says those numbers are fake. How can I prove to him the numbers are real facts?

[@leboknows]

Well, TODAY the Review Journal finally reported the same numbers. So if he doesn't believe the LVRJ, then... 🤷‍♂️

[@danielobrien3544]

the word is do not buy a house or a car

[@charlesanzalone5846]

Not

[@bigjeep2195]

WTH is "housing absorption"???

[@ginagallegos9081]

Absorption rate calculates the amount of inventory we have based on the demand. For example 2.3% absorption rate would mean should we not list another home we would run out of homes for sale based on our demand in 2.3 months. An absorption rate of 4-5% is considered a balanced market and anything over 6% is considered a buyers market.

[@bigjeep2195]

@@ginagallegos9081 Thank you......

[@leboknows]

Sorry for the late response. Even easier is this. if you have a 20% absorption, that means that only 2 out of 10 homes are under contract. The higher the number, the more in demand housing is. The lower the number, the weaker the market is. Hope that makes sense.

[@OscarLove]

This might be the best source for news about The Las Vegas Real Estate market-keep up the good work

[@leboknows]

Thanks Oscar!

[@mrbear3487]

Las Vegas is a service economy. Vegas cannot support a 3 to 4 thousand dollar house average.

[@mindblownwatcher8536]

My friend Vincent just bought a Houseboat on Lake Meade😄🍪

[@jeremyedwards1427]

A land boat.... lol

[@leboknows]

Hahahaha... Well played sir! 👏

[@superior3384]

People just want to be right so bad 😔

[@marcxu6173]

$400k house, down pay $100K, loan $300K for 30 years, your debt is $600K, 30 years later your house worth $700K plus property tax for 30 years ===$850k , that is investing.

[@Powdermonkey99]

Great information and charts!!

[@ronaldsamontanez8592]

How much price drop should be considered back to relatively normal housing price? $75K $100K $150K $200K $250K I live in Sacramento. And, relatively new in the area coming from the East Coast. I saw a listing now. $550K for a 5 beds, 2 baths, 2,106 sqft, 0.55 acre lot In 2017, it was sold for $238K. In 2018, it appreciated to $266K. In 2019, it appreciated to $282K. In 2020, it appreciated to $436K. In 2021, it appreciated to $505K. In 2022, it appreciated to $550K. These are all based on Zillow Estimates. Again, this particular house is on the market now August 2022 for $550K.

[@tunatony]

BAIL OUT🧗‍♀️ BAIL OUT 🚴‍♀️ BAIL OUT 🏄‍♂️

[@lottiespence2614]

Thanks for your commentary.

[@danielobrien3544]

the people are being screwed money wise ----less income

[@waynemeeks6889]

is the reason for the chaos Las Vegas has only 50 day of water?

[@leboknows]

Hahahaha... I'll be doing a video on this topic! Stay tuned!

[@louisking4060]

It's going down

[@kevinflynn5916]

Awesome

[@scottthompson8946]

Feeling like a genius! I planned to put my house up for sale March 15 2022, but on a whim, let opendoor give me a quote. I bought in 2016 for 193k. 6 years later, I assumed it was worth about 365k. That alone was insane appreciation but when open door offered me 429k, I JUMPED ON IT! I was skeptical until the check cleared! But it did and it pushed me over the top on my retirement number. I'm not a real estate expert... in fact I'm only so so. But, I do recognize insanity (plenty of experience dating in Vegas!) and I knew a bubble when I saw it. A $193k house is not worth $429k 6 yrs later. When you find someone dumb enough to give you that much... you take it and run. I'm retired now at 56 living on a beach in Thailand in a gated community in a 3 bdrm house with a pool in the backyard with a Gardner, pool man and 2 maids. Thanks Vegas! And, thanks to all those biz degree millennials running Opendoor who are going to lose their ass as my old house is still on the market with a plummeting price! 🍻

[@leboknows]

Well, if you watched my "OpenDoor" video, you know my feelings on the subject. Congratulations!!!

[@scottthompson8946]

@@leboknows I did! In fact I started watching you before I moved to Vegas and even after the purchase for the next 6 yrs. While you Crystal ball was not perfect, it was damn near and the data centric approach to your videos help make a great decision. I truly believe you are the best agent in the game!

[@marcusfieldfield4069]

Good timing.... that's 90% of the real estate game

[@Lik3ToSing]

May I know what part of Thailand?

[@jackyu2819]

I called Bryan this morning, and he gave me some good advice. I can tell he's a seasoned realtor.

[@leboknows]

Thanks my man. Appreciated your call! Glad I could help you!

[@karlatucker6743]

Do your statistics include areas such as Pahrump, Mesquite, etc ?

[@leboknows]

No, Las Vegas metro. NLV, Vegas and Henderson.

[@histubeness]

I'm no real estate expert, but if the peak top off was $485K and it's only "plummeted" 20K from that, how can that be a disaster? What comes to a high peak has to come down/fluctuate sooner or later. --in this case sooner.

[@weldingsolutionskck2798]

Good content. Add foreclosure and mortgage days delinquent data. Still a little confused on your custom indicator. Nice work.

[@leboknows]

What "custom indicator" where you referring to? The housing absorption metric? As for mortgage delinquency etc... Not there yet. I follow the NOD's "notice of defaults" every single day. I used to report on it, but its been so minimal for years that its not really worth reporting on. As soon as I see an uptick, I'll commence reporting again as this is a precursor to foreclosures in about a year. So again, too early to worry about that right now.

[@CaptainFights]

I called for a 40% crash in Las Vegas on April 29th. The signs have been there all along. And if you think think it’s bad now, wait until you see it with a full blown recession upon us.

[@LumberjackLandlord]

It hasn't crashed in price at all.... it's still up year over year.

[@rogergomez2846]

@@LumberjackLandlord I can wait🤗

[@aussieexpat]

@@LumberjackLandlord 🤡

[@LumberjackLandlord]

@@aussieexpat I state fact...

[@LumberjackLandlord]

@@rogergomez2846 you and me both

[@Ru4444]

I heard they stop building houses in Las Vegas, is this true and if it is, does that mean home price will stay up high because no new houses are being build? Thanks.

[@kennethyoung1164]

In the 1990 there were friends of my friends that had no money to retire they bought a house in Vargas with a huge mortgage, they owned several houses by leveraging there over leveraged first house. In the end they lost there first house and all the others. That’s what happened when you can borrow 125% of your security. How crazy is that.

[@KP99]

They should legalize gambling in Vargas, then many people will move there, like with Vegas.

[@rangercal1]

The prices will drop to $250k median. Because people will only be able to buy what they can afford.

[@evolverespiritus3990]

Video and information was greatly appreciated. Thank you.

[@leboknows]

Glad it was helpful!

[@keiths9483]

Very personable in presentation and delivery. This is not rocket science. Interest rates have increased 3x and are on their way to 4x. The market is now being flooded with greedy individuals trying to sell due to FOMO on getting crazy high prices or their homes. They are too late to the party. It's going to take some time, but ultimately some home owners will lose jobs, get divorced, pass away, or be forced to more for their job. This will means homes will HAVE to be sold. Once those cracks begin to happen, long time home owners will realize that the massive gains were merely on paper and those who bought in 2020, 2021, and early 2022 will realize that they are either going to have to stay put or suffer a major loss.

[@andrian4400]

The same is happening here in Canada 🇨🇦 it’s plummeting what’s even scarier is I’m one the heads of capital one bank 🏦 we’ve had a increase of over 39% default rate on car loans and over 40% credit card loans our internal memo show not allowing people starting this month to pull more than $600 cash out of the bank so it’s it’s pretty bad and both governments Canadian and United States are not being very honest with her people Great video Brian

[@robertsugarland]

Of course it will plummet. There’s a radical socialist in power who wants to destroy the middle class on purpose!

[@leboknows]

Hey Andria! Thanks so much for the comment. Yes, I've been watching the defaults on car loans here in the US as well. Massive spike in repossessions. Its certainly going to be an interesting 18 months ahead!!! 😬

[@VegasRN]

Might be a good deal on a little secondary, luxury convertible this winter!

[@LumberjackLandlord]

Debt in Canada is all different. I hate to say it but Canada is likely going to experience what we did in 08.

[@andrian4400]

@@LumberjackLandlord much worse hun

[@obama4hire]

There is little to NO WATER in the Las Vegas Area. The major decided to spend $2 billion of tax payers money and stupid Resort fees revenue (without the citizens voting on which is more important) on a Raider Football Statium INSTEAD of a water pipeline from the Sierra Nevada Mountains up in Lake Tahoe area. That was a major mistake !!! Which is more important to Clark County? 😁...😆

[@supertriz]

I remember seeing new construction in Vegas for $135k back in 2015. Damn near made me leave Seattle. Those were the good ‘ole days…. 😂

[@leboknows]

Yeah, those were good 'ol days for sure bud!

[@Orion801airsoft]

Great video. Can you do other markets too?

[@leboknows]

Wish I could. But I specialize in Las Vegas and would be pretty arrogant to presume to intimately know other areas I haven't worked in. Sorry.

[@bhilbert11]

What was the worst month for closings before 2020?

[@leboknows]

My records only go back 10 years. But we sold 1,676 homes in January of 2015!

[@bhilbert11]

@@leboknows You may not know this but what I’m interested in is did the market freeze up for any months during 08-09?

[@joshcrenshaw6041]

Serious question here… purchased new home build 4-5 months ago. House is now set to be completed in September. Love the house but I don’t want to be financially crushed with the contract price. Any advice on negotiating a new price?

[@roostercogburn746]

I would start by finding out what the current homes in that development are selling for. Sometimes, developers don't want to lower the price right away because people like you might walk away and eat the deposit. At the beginning of the last crash, some developers offered free upgrades or other incentives that didn't hurt the sales price. Personally, I wouldn't buy a house right now, but if it's your forever house and you love it, that's a different story. I would setup a meeting with the developer and express what you have learned about price adjustments, free upgrades, or even a mortgage rate buy-down and demand the same treatment. You have nothing to lose by trying.

[@CaptainFights]

This is a very hard place to give someone advice, so I won't. But I would tell you the questions I would ask myself: 1. If I back out of this, what is my new level of purchasing power? (higher rate = lower purchase price = some concessions on what I want versus what I can afford.) 2. Am I ok with the results of #1? 3. If so, how much money do I lose by walking away from this house? 4. Does the answer to #3 affect my decision in #2? Truth be told, rates aren't coming down and you're about to marry that house for the price and rate. Will you be happy with it?

[@joshcrenshaw6041]

Thank you both very much!! I appreciate you taking the time to give me insight. Super scary in this vegas market right now.

[@andrian4400]

@@joshcrenshaw6041 what’s even more scarier than rate and prices is the fact in 3 more years you might be out of water 💦 completely and state declares state of emergency and puts everyone on water restrictions to the point you can’t live there

[@joshcrenshaw6041]

@michael h in Vegas bro?

[@hotchicsf]

Do you think it has to do with the severe water shortage, or is it the interest rate hike, inflation, COVID situation?

[@leboknows]

Zero percent (right now) having to do with water. Although, this may become a major issue in the forthcoming months. Mostly due to interest rate hikes and just the market NATURALLY calming down. Very bizarre 3 years across the board. Unnatural purchasing activity and post-pandemic moves sparked a unique situation. I think it's just a culmination of multiple events occurring at the same time.

[@hotchicsf]

@@leboknows Thank you for the response.

[@razojacqueline]

I am in California and have been thinking of relocating to Las Vegas since I can work from home but the water shortage has definitely put my plans in pause. Without water vegas would become the next detroit.

[@hotchicsf]

@@razojacqueline I was thinking the same thing. Water (or lack thereof) is a valid reason why entire regions throughout the ages migrate away from where they lived.

[@ELIRAXPRT]

Real estate market became a circus over the last two years. I’m not surprised. It needs a reset to come back to earth. It’s jut not normal for prices to climb so fast and for people having a ton of cash offers well above asking on the first day a home hits the market

[@WindingRoad]

20-16.6% absorption rate is equivalent to 5-6 months supply, which is considered “healthy” in most markets. Not sure if this is all doom and gloom let.

[@leboknows]

I agree with your assessment. The larger issue is that our inventory continues to INCREASE while sales plummet. So what appears to be 5-6 months NOW could balloon. Thats the point. We're JUST getting started... Hopefully its not a major crash. Not where my hopes are. But a settling of values is well needed.

[@jrstsb1353]

It will be a buyers market when there's no water, am I right?

[@hfrealty7007]

why do you think sales are down so much?

[@leboknows]

Pretty obvious. The market is decreasing. Buyers don't want to purchase KNOWING they'll lose money. The danger here is a self-fufilling prophecy. If buyers don't purchase, prices decline. The more prices decline, the more buyers hold off on purchasing. So on and so forth. Thats how things go from "Bad" to "worse" quickly.

[@hfrealty7007]

@@leboknows that made PERFECT sense and is kinda what i had formulated in my head. thanks for the input.

[@JasonBay-RealEstateInvesting]

prices are $60K higher than last year according to the graph you provided. 1:45 I hardly call that a crash.

[@leboknows]

LOL It never is.. Until it crashes. Cmon man. We could go back to 2008 and show that the median price was up X amount over 2007. Thats just silly. Median price has plummeted $20K in two months. I think that is more indicative than looking backwards.

[@JasonBay-RealEstateInvesting]

@@leboknows My point is that saying the housing market just crashed 40% (or crashed at all) is misleading. You present some great evidence indicating that things are not looking good. Perhaps a "crash" is on the horizon, but I think we both know that's it's not happened yet. Will it happen? Maybe, but neither you nor I posses a crystal ball. I enjoy your content though. Keep making great videos my friend :)

[@cjswag130]

Funny how this same guy made a video betting money the vegas market wasn’t crashing anytime soon he said we can put the funds in escrow lmao

[@leboknows]

Really? Really? Clearly you haven't been watching me for months. The moment I saw the signs I reported. Just like I put this video out a WEEK before any news outlets picked up the story. Only TODAY did the Las Vegas Review Journal report what I put out a week ago. Cmon now CJ. 🙄

[@Noah-jr5sh]

The fed will eventually have to come in and add empty houses to their balance sheet

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

Inventory has tripled in a few months in Henderson (immediately South of Vegas) and prices are already coming down. It's not much but the reductions are appreciable. Just the first inning in my opinion.

[@BubblesBath]

Definitely overpriced in summerlin......I was lucky to find a townhouse for under 400,000 .......prices are coming down

[@jeremyedwards1427]

Where you gonna get water in 2 or 3 years

[@leboknows]

Valid question.. Video forthcoming!

[@majid8743]

excellent report.

[@leboknows]

Thanks!

[@workabekele5370]

Can you do the information every day. Vegas is getting harder ...

[@louisdufour4106]

Im glad housing is crashing. My wife and I are disabled senior citizens who was given a no cause eviction from the reality company after owner died. We had lived in our home for over 15 years, and the reality company raised the rent 3X to what is equal to southern California and Malibu. I'll be dead within year from my cancer and I hope I live long enough to see the real estate company crash

[@AuroraBoarder1]

Unfortunately, this is becoming quite common. It's even happening in senior housing.

[@mariopaul8413]

So what does this mean for someone who is looking to buy in about 6months? Better deals or will homes be harder to find? I jus seen inspirada mark Everythjng down 30k, will they go lower? Thanks

[@WasThatWrong]

Yes, because besides stagflation Nevada has a serious water problem. Don’t buy there.

[@BubblesBath]

Definitely wait.

[@LumberjackLandlord]

Loving this as a shopper in the vegas market. I'm patient. I can wait for inventory to keep building. I only need 1 desperate seller. Awesome job Sir!

[@leboknows]

Hahahaha.. Right on my man!

[@davidjewett112]

You'll have several desperate to choose from

[@WasThatWrong]

Got water? Big problem in the southwest.

[@gusdavos8158]

I had a Realtor call me off a contact card from two years ago. Things are getting tough.

[@dmguk68]

Will rent prices start to go down

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

Might take a while. People who are forced to sell their unaffordable homes will be tossed back into the rental market. BUT eventually house prices will come down and relieve that pressure. Add to that the fact the home builders have a lot of homes in the pipelines (including apartments) and the fact that job losses are mounting, and I predict that maybe in 18 months there will be some rent reductions.

[@leboknows]

J Garcia answered this one quite well. I wouldn't expect to see rental prices decline unless mass unemployment occurs. Less people PURCHASING homes means more renters. Frankly, I don't see rents going down.

[@receiptsmlu5073]

I don't think it's a crush, housing price is currently correcting because it has gone up so much.

[@vegasprogambler5336]

the levels they've 'collapsed from' were stupid high to begin with. they doubled in 5 years. thats laughable. let us know when they get back to reasonable levels. ideally 2008, but thats not going to happen...so maybe 2012?

[@seannotaro473]

Wow, its starting!.....

[@tc102167]

Vegas is not really a preview for the rest of IS cause there is this thing called water there that is literally disappearing.

[@mrfine00]

SBA loans repayment starts this October 1st, there's more fun to come to next

[@clubmogambo3214]

This is a bit misleading. A 40% crash in sales is not the same as a 40% crash in sales prices. When this fella says median price of sold homes "plummeted" by $15k, he didn't mention that this was only a 3% drop. No doubt the long expected pullback is taking place, and there will be a stall, even a pullback in prices. But new home sales in Vegas are still soaring, and it's new home sales that ultimately drive the market. Until they start to fall flat and builders start throwing a ton of incentives to get people to buy, don't get your hopes up on prices suddenly plummeting in the Vegas market, and certainly not 40%.

[@Stridermd]

Builders started the incentives a month ago. Those incentives are exploding now. They are desperate. Stay tuned for his next video about all of that.

[@clubmogambo3214]

@@Stridermd Not sure where your new home community is, but here in the Northwest new homes are still selling like hotcakes. The builders might be throwing in a couple of bones here and there, but for the most part the houses are selling for the original listing prices. Now existing home sales are a whole nuther story. The inventory for these, even in the Northwest, has almost doubled in recent months. Personally, I'm hoping the prices do begin to sink even for the newly built homes, would love to snag one, but only at a reasonable price.

[@leboknows]

To clarify, Darin is correct. New home builders NATIONALLY are scared. A million news articles about this topic. Good for your area, but I'm guessing that will slow down soon. Not sure what was misleading to you though. Sales were down 40%. Thats the point. And yes, median was down 3%. But 3% in ONE MONTH is massive. Again, this is just the BEGINNING. It will likely get much worse before it gets better. No fear mongering, but stating obvious truths here.

[@ViceCoin]

The Vegas hospitality economy is 100% dependent on consumer discretionary spending. The US recession may last for years.

[@alanasky7406]

Red Rock Casino and area didn't see any of that in 2008... Don't paint a blanket over Las Vegas..

[@beninformato9040]

Hey Bryan ... Just came across your channel. Great content. I like how you're keeping it honest and real. Keep up the good reporting. I know we can't time the market, but I would be interested in seeing your data and predictions on when you think, based on your years of experience, when it would be a good time to buy in Clark County. A video on that would be great. Thanks!

[@leboknows]

Thanks for watching Ben. Well, the truth is that its fluid. We KNOW prices are falling. How much, is the only question. So I'd hold off for 3 months and see how things settle during the holidays. There will be PLENTY of deals. Some may make sense. Or, it might make sense to wait another 3 months. Depends on what type of product you're looking to purchase. I don't think theres a "universal" answer for EVERY buyer. Some areas will implode. But it will take some time to bottom out. Many of these high end neighborhoods haven't even started their big declines. Meanwhile, others never really inflated too much and will be more resilient to the declining values.

[@WasThatWrong]

Never, if they don’t have water. Think it over.

[@beninformato9040]

@@leboknows : Thanks Bryan I appreciate the feedback.

[@onezero9512]

Awesome videos, great balance of entertainment and information. "Absorption" -- another way Econ geeks say this is "market clearing price" ... love that you are using your brain and working things out on your own. Bro, can you track lake Mead, that's making national attention. Probably good traffic for your channel too. If you put that great mind of yours to work, you could probably build a forecast model predicting house price declines correlated to decreasing water levels (actually daily use quotas) but the info graphic would be irresistible. More than finances, water is going to have its say in LV (and CA, AZ, Mexico) before this is over. Might also track ongoing cloud seeding efforts just to point out that you're smart enough to look up.

[@leboknows]

Dude!!!! I'm literally working on that exact topic as we speak!!!! 👏

[@ji-inroh495]

Why would you sell right now when you're sitting on a 3% (or sub 3%) mortgage? So you can buy another house at 5.25%?

[@dsj9831]

When your wages increase 5% but inflation increases at 20%. When your property taxes also increase. When your roof needs replaced,a/c needs replaced and you bought at the peak of the market and you have no cash reserves or home equity to draw from. When a person gets laid off and can't find a similar paying job. When your spouse files for divorce. See there's a myriad of reasons.

[@ji-inroh495]

@@dsj9831 Yes. It's just a really really bad financial move. I consider a 3% mortgage an asset. Especially, when inflation is running at 15-20%. It's debt destruction.

[@leboknows]

To be fair, there's not necessarily ONE right answer for EVERYONE. Maybe you were planning on moving NEXT year. Better to take your proceeds now vs. losing $100K next year right? Hard to pass on a locked 3% mortgage. But again, not everyone is in the same position.

[@GM-ke7kf]

How many of these homes on the market are flips? It seems like a lot of them were bought within the last year or two and now are for sale at ridiculous prices.

[@nathanpeters9515]

Funny, I hear over $1.5 million being considered ultra luxury, yet 1960s ramblers are going for $2.5 million in good school districts around Seattle-Bellevue. That’s the new middle class home close to work, what a working class person used to be able to afford.

[@leboknows]

Real estate is local right! What the "average" is in San Francisco, is LUXURY virtually anywhere else. Difficult to compare on a national level.

[@nathanpeters9515]

@@leboknows we are targeting a home about 2.5x our annual income, meaning where we are looking, we need to earn around $1.2MM/year. I cannot help but believe households are stretched.

[@kristofreiter2027]

The absorption rate statistic has an artifact that needs to be corrected any time listings change. A listing does not "mature" to the sale stage immediately. Therefore you should be using the listing # of some point in the past, I'd use today's date minus the average # of days it takes to get under contract, then divide that listing quantity by the # of contracts today. You should find that this smooths out the result in a way that makes it less intrinsically biased toward showing low uptake when the overall quantity of listings increases. I'm curious to see the result.

[@herbertadams8681]

good job

[@leboknows]

Thanks!

[@artofgarduno]

This is concerning considering the layoffs in Vegas haven't really hit yet.

[@mrrightorwrong6272]

Meanwhile i get calls daily for jobs, hell they even practically beg me to interview 🙃

[@Dave-zl2ky]

As will parts of AZ, CA, TX, and FL.

[@obama4hire]

You forgot to add the greater Seattle Area. 🙂

[@24what24]

Hey B ... when (if it hasn't happened already) do you think interest rates will play into pulling the market down even further?

[@HateDietPepsi]

Bad is good and good is good for the stock market. Wait a decade, when Lake Mead runs dry, then houses will be had for $5000.

[@milenahadzhieva2218]

$485K was UNrealistic anyway. This hype had to slow down and allow the "blue collar" to be able to qualify for buying a home again!

[@clankster0000]

This is just the beginning. When the layoffs go into full bloom, the inventory on the market will be staggering.

[@christianherrera101]

There will be and they show it coming people just don’t care and the dollar will devaluation bad with all this money they’re printing won’t mean much minerals! China and Russia already got it going on

[@Mountainman524]

I hope so and no I’m not saying that so I hope it goes back up. I wish homes stay cheap forever

[@guyz7777]

There's plenty of jobs our there...unemployment has never been lower

[@clankster0000]

@@guyz7777 Again, check out all of the layoffs happening and its only going to get worse.

[@obama4hire]

@@guyz7777 there are plenty of LOW paying jobs in Las Vegas.

[@alw56]

I just bought a $1.2 million dollar home in California for 750!................................................................................................................................Sike! I'm waiting for the market to keep rollin rollin rollin yeah! 👏👏🍀🍀

[@davidjewett112]

Maybe you bought a $750,000 house that someone was asking too for.

[@AB-fq4mr]

I guess if inventory doubled in my city since early June, I can see something similar to Vegas in a month or two. Finally home shopping is about to be a fun experience again like it’s supposed to be.

[@grownupgaming]

i kno rite? biggest purchase of your life should be awesome but it sucks now

[@Mountainman524]

Home prices going down is a good thing for the majority of people. Everyone needs a home we as a society should want and do all we can to make homes as cheap as possible through increasing productivity etc. it amazes me how people think having crazy high home prices is a good thing it’s not it’s terrible

[@andrian4400]

It makes them feel warm and fuzzy inside like they’re doing well

[@NJ-wb1cz]

If house prices are going down it means people can't afford them which is bad. Prices themselves aren't the problem, if people are unable to afford things that's bad.

[@NJ-wb1cz]

Oh, and when those house prices are dropping because people can't afford them, it means corporations, elites and foreign countries will buy up those houses when the prices are down, making house ownership less and less feasible for US citizens

[@msk384]

And the Video was FANTASTIC TOO, as Always! 😊😊👍👍💕💕

[@leboknows]

Thanks for the love!

[@Greenlantern30]

While it may take a few months to see this 40% drop you mention, my home has been going up in value 4k to 6k each month. Only time will tell.

[@RickyGutierrezyoutube]

The rich stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then the poor stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich

[@RickyGutierrezyoutube]

Now with the recent economy, To get financial FREEDOM you have to be making money while you're asleep

[@trentmsteel]

Well the party had to end sometime for home owners like us. The other side is for sure thinking. “You guys got fat while everybody starved on the street. Now it's my turn.”

[@808Tornado]

Agreed My house went from 440k in 2017 to 820k in 2022 If it drops down to 400 or 500k It simply is what it is Same thing happened to me in Hawaii Bought a house at 530k in 2005 By 2009 it was 900k Then over a few years it dropped down to 500k Then a decade later I sold it at 900k Nothing last forever

[@dmguk68]

Preach and prepare......I like the level geaded approach. Vegas Girl chanmel is kiking out lies and bad information

[@leboknows]

Thanks for the heads up. Gotta check this one out!

[@athenasack5232]

Thanks for continuing to put out the great info! I’m looking for a home to house hack or possibly just an investment property. Seems like my chances of finding a great deal here in Vegas in the next few months is increasing!

[@leboknows]

I agree. I've been finding a few deals already here and there. Come winter, you'll be pleased!!!!

[@videogarage9221]

Love the stats man. Does this change your outlook from a few videos ago ?

[@leboknows]

Not really. I think I've been steadfast these past few months about the market change. In the beginning of the year I stated that prices would likely level off in August. I was two months late with that prediction. And while I saw a possible correction on the horizon, I didn't think it would come THIS quickly.

[@tbugher62]

Nonoe of this video is true,I live in Vegas.

[@markoraimius4339]

So many people think that when it takes 3 to 4 months to sell a home it's a crash or the end of the world. My company sold 40,000 homes from 1986 until 2011 in Vegas and other than the freakish up and down years 3 to 4 months to sell a home is normal. 20% absorption in one month means there is a 5 months supply of inventory. But Brians numbers are always solid and I'm not disputing this will be like coming out of hyper drive. It will be drastic compared to a freak year and slow compared to a good year. But I'm certainly not ruling out the possibility of real crash albeit probably short lived. The Fed is already hinting at rate cuts in 2023. But really, Rates go from 3 to 5.75 in 120 days and prices up 35% in two years so this is proportionate so far to these freakish changes. BTW, from August to December the seasonality of the market slows each month and then picks up in January through spring and summer. This trend happens about 95% of the time except in freak up or down markets. So that will make this falls stats even worse.

[@leboknows]

Love your analysis. I don't even dispute your opinion. I think this is very fluid. I can see a multitude of scenarios for 2023. Yes, we've been living in a bubble for the past x amount of years. Whats "abnormal" activity has become "normal". So a 3 month listing seems like FOREVER now. I agree with that assessment. Its more the fact that sales have PLUMMETED that's the concerning part. If EVERYONE suddenly decides NOT to purchase out of fear, then prices freewill and therefore reinforce everyones pensiveness. The more prices fall, the more people WAIT. Until its so low, you simply HAVE to buy. Then investors come in and the market resumes. So again, this is fluid. We'll see how BAD the market gets, and then never underestimate the power of the government and fed. Rates come back to 3.5% in April, the market could recover quicker. Just a lot of "ifs" out there.

[@WasThatWrong]

And you don’t have enough water. So, there’s that.

[@calvinlong1321]

Please don't put anything to watch in the last 20 seconds, contents are blocked by pop ups.

[@leboknows]

Ahh... Thats a bummer for sure... But thanks for the heads up! Didn't think about that one...

[@ViceCoin]

"Homes are for living in, not for speculation," Chairman Xi, CCP.

[@OneRentalataTime]

Amazing job!’ 40% crash in transactions, I know someone who called that

[@leboknows]

Hahahaha!! Tip my hat to you sir! ;)

[@danielobrien3544]

vegas is a boom bust town

[@tonyburzio4107]

Anyone care the reservoirs watering Las Vegas are empty?

[@leboknows]

If they don't, they soon will.

[@brandenleeyang22]

Of course las vegas will crash 40%, a single studio costs almost a million dollars.

[@greenfly0917]

Where in Vegas is a single studio almost a million dollars?

[@3x3mm]

We don't care ab that-investors just stop screwing over renters.

[@808Tornado]

My house dropped from 820 to 800k over the past 6 weeks Is 6xx possible a year from now... Most likely

[@seanneiberger4199]

If you didn’t actually sell your house, the numbers are meaningless. Put it on the market and you might be shocked that no one’s buying in this market. Just the start and prices will plummet over the next 6-12 months.

[@seanneiberger4199]

@J C My point was regarding the comment, my property dropped from $820 to $800 in value. That's not relevant unless he actually sold for $800k If the property is listed for sale, he may find the value is far less than $800.

[@808Tornado]

@@seanneiberger4199 I have a better chance than most. 5k SQ feet and in culdesac less than a mile from Summerlin. Because I'm not in gated community and not officially in the Summerlin line my house is actually a great deal at 800k To me it's the people in gated communities who have 2.8k SQ feet homes that were valued at 800k who would have the harder time. But I'd never sell. A 5300 SQ ft mini mansion with a 15 foot movie theater screen and upgraded everything with custom shark aquarium and yada yada yada with a 1.75% interest rate I only pay 1900 a month for with principal, interest, property taxes and insurance included. Easily cost me a million plus to have the same house anywhere. 5k a month vs my 1900 for the same exact thing. But if you read my thread. My other house was 5xx k in 2005 Then 9xxk in 2009 Then 5xxk in 2012 Then I sold it for 9xxk in 2021

[@seanneiberger4199]

@@808Tornado Sounds like your in a great position. Good for you!

[@808Tornado]

@@seanneiberger4199 I actually replied to the wrong thread lol. Sorry

[@decimgames2163]

I really like people that throw the numbers out and compare....plus who wants to go to Vegas in this heat??? August numbers are going to be horrific!!!

[@smitha775]

Remember the Reventure Consulting smack down video?? Well, that aged well…

[@leboknows]

Did it really? I mean, if you look back on my channel I've had people predicting a crash for 8 years. (Eventually they'll be correct). Broken clock effect. And much of his rationale never came to fruition. Wave of foreclosures? That video was a year ago. No foreclosures still. Thats like me predicting prices will go up. Eventually after the crash the prices will go up. So in 3 years we can look back and say I was a genius for predicting it? I try to stay grounded and based within the confines of logic and reason. Not wild predictions that may or may not come true.

[@bhilbert11]

In the neighborhood I watch I have seen a number of houses fall out of contract and go back on the market. One house in particular had an offer in one day that was canceled the next day had another offer that was canceled in one day and is now on the market with a 5% price reduction. What is your guess as to buyer behavior? Are most buyers legitimately scared Or are they canceling thinking they will get a bigger better deal soon?

[@leboknows]

Well, difficult to speculate on EVERY buyers behavior. But there is tremendous fear amongst buyers out there.. Now this home could have poor inspection history. Or, could just be bad luck with buyers. You have to be SO careful right now purchasing when you KNOW the market is going down. In most cases I don't think it makes sense to buy. IN some cases it pencils out. The more buyers read and watch how the market is decreasing, the more likely we are to see additional cancellations!