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[@bravosresearch]

🎉 NEW YEAR 2025 DEAL! GET 30% OFF 🎉 👉 go.bravosresearch.com/420JpD4 (EXPIRING Jan 9, 2024 at 11:59pm ET) Subscribe to our FREE Macro Report 📈👉 newsletter.bravosresearch.com

[@財經台-v4q]

Worry when: 1. 10-year treasury drops a lot 2. Unemployment rate goes up a lot

[@mathieubas]

The 10y is not rising on economic growth certainty, but rather on inflation expectations.

[@bravosresearch]

That is highly debatable. Inflation breakevens have not been rising significantly recently, and neither have commodity markets (both tend to track inflation trends well)

[@jordanp.2558]

Government spending has been keeping the stock market rising the last two years. When the presidency switches hands, if the spending doesn’t continue we may see a large drop.

[@KenW418]

We need the drop. Whichever happens, the lower class is getting screwed. High taxes to support government spending, or economic volatility, high unemployment, and recession. We need a good equalization imo

[@timferguson593]

You are correct.

[@snowcross1853]

New job creation is also exclusively government funded jobs. I suspect the unemployment is much higher then what is being reported.

[@arnoldbuskftw]

I highly doubt the incoming commission will slow down the economy in such a pivotal time, when we are on the verge of a technological breakthrough that will change everything overnight, and the stakes to master this technology before China are so high. The feedback loop from the pressure these companies have for performance - to continously outdo their rivals in a ferocious race for shareholder money to continue to expand infrastructure/spend on innovation etc

[@tannerrussell9697]

Trump will keep spending. Has to. Otherwise the U.S. empire will fall.

[@21_my_pobedim10]

3 month yield is NOT durectly controlled by the Fed. Similarly to the 10Y yield the 3 month yield is defined by the market. The Fed controls the overnight rate

[@josephnestelroad244]

I think you guys should do a video on the reason the 10 year yield is rising. IMHO, it's not US speculators, it's foreign governments that are using US treasuries as a safe and liquid asset. China and Japan being at the top of the list by far. Their currencies and economies are not doing very well vs. the US, and they are having to sell their US treasuries to make up the difference to raise enough capital to fill the export-import deficit. And tariffs will only add fuel to the fire.

[@grantgoldberg1663]

We had two consecutive negative quarters in 2023. We already had a recession. It's just the NBER never acknowledged it. We're now in a double-dip recession or should I say depression. What the market is experiencing is the opposite of what the rest of America is experiencing.

[@meiko_kaji]

💯 %

[@chiaroscuro3223]

Wrong!! The 10-year rate is rising because bond traders are fearful of, excessive US government borrowing which will require the debt to be issued at higher interest rates and inflation. It is not a reflection of rosy expectations for the economy!

[@CaptainT1989]

Love these explanations on how and why things work as they do in the finacial markets. Explain it to me in a way that i can understand. Thank you very much!

[@riozz90]

One of the best macro analisys channels out there

[@PukeSkinwalker]

10 year treasury notes measure the business perception. 3 month measures government perception. Business cycle is cooling so the government cut rates.

[@maervo4179]

Let it crash, so i can buy on discount

[@mattbailey112]

All the thanks you guys just gave; right back at you guys!🙏 I would not be where I am today w/o having learneded so much from yous guys!… seriously tho, Thank you for everything you guys do, and let’s have another banger year!

[@21_my_pobedim10]

The reason why the 10Y yield is going up now is that the folks have realized that the interest rate will go down slower than expected. The reason is NOT that the market predicts bright future for the US economy short-term

[@sandeepthakur1010]

Happy New Year Team

[@KristopherHesson]

Man i have heard 3 ir 4 explanations of this and yours is the best and clearest and finally helped me understand it fully. Thank you!🎉

[@Chad_Max]

Uninverted yield curve happens all the time, but recessions don’t. While true that an uninverted yield curve precedes a recession, not all uninverted yield curves signal a recession. Just look at how many uninverted yield curves are in the charts you’re presenting where there was no recession…

[@sonicblackhole3559]

Once the tariffs go in and the fed raises rates I expect a lot of this to come crashing back I could easily see the Dow losing 50% in like 2-3 days might be sometime in late February but markets can be slow to react so it’s hard to tell

[@TomTom-du5qv]

What I've learned is that you can paper over a recession, but at the cost of inflation and at the end of the day no matter what any politician or economist says, it will show up as an increase in National Debt which to me is the ultimate truth teller.

[@jaymoney9721]

This was one of your best, really great informative video.

[@TBasianeyes]

The job market is much worse than what the stats tell us. Government employment has been increasing by a lot in the last 1-2 years but in the private sector jobs are getting cut. How are these government jobs financed? With debt which equals inflation. It's a different form of QE. We are clearly in late cycle

[@JimmyHuynhdesign]

Finally someone covered this

[@ThePhase-l2n]

You. Are. Brilliant. Mr Bravos.

[@ftapon]

1. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from around 6.5% in 1972 to nearly 8% in 1973, before the recession began in 1973. 2. 1980 Recession: Before the recession in 1980, the 10-year Treasury yield increased from about 10% in 1979 to over 11% in early 1980.

[@jointhearmy555]

hot take, but i don't think yield reversions are a reliable indicator in a world with a more aggressive fed.

[@BhargavKrishnaReddy79]

Rise in Treasury yield is actually a bad sign. It indicates that the buyers don’t trust the government to pay back the debt and hence higher yields expectations. It also indicates that the government is going to spend massively and cause inflation and market is pricing that in

[@Dorothy-s9p]

Amazing content. You are still the best! It's been a year since I found ways to improve my finances and by working with a recognized professional, I was able to achieve financial independence. I have to say this; "As long as you have determination and work hard, you can achieve anything you set your mind to."

[@maraamadel]

How do you find recognized professionals?

[@rajeshraut6447]

Recessions reduce demand for long term borrowing, but a reduction in supply of capital can force borrowers tooffers higher interest rates. Public sector borrowers (who are less recession sensitive) maybe in the process of crowding out private sector borrowers.

[@gillian32]

I'm sure the tariffs will fix everything. 😁

[@WealthyChronicle]

Interesting that bond yields are moving up while unemployment rises. Could this actually signal more time before a recession, or are we just delaying the inevitable? 💼💸

[@itsMohak]

Always very nice examination and intel.

[@mistermcluvin2425]

Good video, great information. thanks!

[@krzysztofc3785]

What if the bond market tells us that stagflation is coming? The reinversion of the rates indicates coming recession and higher yields only indicate that inflation will stay at higher levels..

[@ThatGuy-kv1kw]

was this one of the longest inversions?

[@wilsonpe]

I'm loving all this optimism, that is when the market will come down. Stay optimistic my friends, recession is far off

[@dannylo4807]

Can't quite get my head around which is cause which is effect 😅

[@MutualistSoc]

Credit card delinquencies are at an all time high. Alongside Trump has said he's going to start making Millions of Americans start making payments on their education debt again. I'm sure they'll help an already struggling economy, pulling an additional hundreds if not thousands of dollars out of average American monthly bank accounts. This depression is going to be EPIC. Will Trump flip off his base and enact progressive economic policies or will he enact the austerity measures we all expect and trigger a depression.

[@sloshedtrain]

There are plenty of scenarios on how the economic bubble will pop. It's only a matter of time. It would have been the same thing regardless who won the election, but what matters is the response to the economic downturn. It's gonna get bad and the country (and world) is not ready for it.

[@bubcat54]

You think not paying college loans has no affect on the economy? By that standard, nobody should pay any loan back. That would really stimulate things. Bwhaaaaa haaaaa haaaaa haaaaa

[@da0ud]

It's always been true, except when it wasn't.

[@skyyefinance]

What about the possibility of stagflation?

[@JRPLAWOffice]

@7:14 extending the recession until when?

[@777jrg]

So basically a recession is in the cards but the stock market will still grow in the foreseeable future? Probably a crazy blow off top 2025 and recession in 2026?

[@jurgenpommerenke8150]

Employment could anticipate the tariffs and the need for more employees then. Second reason could be the rising numbers of employees in the government. This has to be taken in account to assess the employment numbers.

[@Roogs]

10y-3mo doesn't give you a yield curve, it gives you a spread.

[@eduardomaxwell7817]

They just didn't announce it yet

[@RahulMehra0361]

They will not announce it , that's where the tricky part is , we have already been in recession.

[@chrisrickmears3826]

Very helpful. Thank you

[@patmat.]

Happy new year and thank you for your channel.

[@williewest5574]

Actually, since the Economy is bifurcated, the yes, the lower and working class is already in a recession

[@dontlookhere...whyareyou]

When is it? The Greater Recession?

[@Ayo22210]

Great video

[@rovanmohammed6995]

Just subscribed , great job

[@blue7lvn245]

Man I've been waiting for this

[@ricardogomes4788]

Great video!

[@Ayo22210]

You guys should do a video on the great depression, and how countries implement a tight monetary policy to try and get the gold convertibility rates back on track in the late 1920s, to pre-World War I levels. When they suspended their gold standards to fight World War I.

[@matt37221]

What stack do you use for editing your videos?

[@lexluthor9509]

extra crispy with cheese sprinkles

[@MrFernandogj]

Sorry to tell you but there will be no more inflation, the consumer is absolutely crushed currently. The only thing that is helping the consumer right now are asset prices which are the last thing needed to be dropped in order to guarantee we have no inflation issues moving forwards. Remember, the fed will tell you they dont wanna crush the market but their main concern in general is inflation in the end. They cut rates, they would not risk cutting if they believed inflation could be a problem.

[@marcelorachevsky8944]

Nice job.

[@supamat]

Happy new year 🎉

[@CsondesMateHUN]

No sane investor will keep lending to the government for 10 or 30 years at these rates. The rates on the long end will explode higher because of inflation caused by government spending. Hyperinflation here we go!

[@johnsmithee6660]

I'd be more worried if it's a bull steepener uninversion. Right now, it's a bear steepener uninversion with the 10Y yield going up and killing long bonds.

[@PedestrianPony]

Waiting to see if the new admin does actually implement sweeping tariffs on China and Mexico. If they do, well, there's your recession.

[@RedOneM]

This time is truly different: AI ☺

[@donsgames6022]

They need to lower the rates like crazy in order to release the Bonds so that flows into the economy

[@4hartrich]

Well, I think it means that people are demanding a higher interest rate for having money 10 years out because all of bonds our government has been selling

[@joeschmoe3665]

I hate this market it's pumped and dumb beyond belief

[@Pickle1762]

"So, should i buy or sell?" "Yes"

[@TimAZ-ih7yb]

2020-2024 showed that if the federal government can deficit spend, essentially without limit, then recessions can be postponed indefinitely.

[@SwissJacques1963]

Many many thanks.

[@kawinp2530]

Won't be a market crash until AI narrative is over. That will happen when Nvidia misses earning

[@242bleek]

For the first time in history the market is working independently of the American peoples spending habits. I dont see a good outcome here.

[@mykeprior3436]

Until the steepness is approaching 2006 I do not care. Market go up. They will bleed bears dry. Once the steepness is finally in recession territory, the bears will be gone. We are young in this cycle. Normalization of the curve has nothing to do with it. That's when it begins. The yield curve when it cannot be SUPPORTED by the economy is the real issue. We aren't even CLOSE yet. Free advice to my fellow men. Don't stay poor, don't listen to the fear, don't listen to the news they use to control you, listen to the inflows/outflows.

[@TurnkeyTrading]

so the clock is ticking?

[@Blackearthexcavationandtiling]

More war ...add a drought ... stagflation

[@blue7lvn245]

Stock market needs a 70% correction eheheh

[@Bradspa55]

One of the best explanations I have seen. Thanks

[@russellobrien6441]

I don't buy the logic that, because the 10 year yield is trending up the recession is delayed. With a Trump presidency, there are likely surprise shocks that could disrupt the trend.

[@buehlerbilly]

Can the economy just crash already

[@kevinho4504]

It will happen in 2026

[@yj677]

interesting

[@TushhsuT]

How one can use 10y curve for prediction of something when 2 strong not-normal unexpected crisises happened in last 4 years? First Corona, then f..Putler-started a nazi-ruzzia war against Ukraine?! In US people might think thia war is far away from them and there is no influence, but just look at the stocks - many us stocks also had a strong drawback in 2022! So - only after one somehow subtract these two events out of 10y curve, one can try to predict something.

[@dderuy]

End of 2026

[@starofchaos]

The market only goes up

[@Patrickweyland87]

20th

[@BillyJ10]

💯

[@a.markov5170]

Bro is giving me mrbossftw vibes with that voice

[@MitarIzDubicha]

it's really crazy how nobody is talking about the book the elite society's money manifestation, it changed my life

[@AwtaMadik]

When the high end call girls start declining in yearly gross revenue that's when you should worry....

[@CrashBr0]

Prepare for a severe recession.

[@otterconnor942]

Yay....

[@Barsss_777]

6666 - final target snp500👹👹👹

[@Tetus7]

Great Depression 2: Electric Boogaloo will happen under Trump

[@rileyclose8069]

third?

[@lotezk]

🎉❤

[@bprosperie]

Third

[@lexluthor9509]

by Half...

[@jippylip1309]

first

[@lexluthor9509]

Test Dummies usually are...

[@AkioHonnami]

Thank you Lord Jesus for the gift of life and blessings to me and my family $14,120.47 weekly profit Our lord Jesus have lifted up my Life!!!🙏❤❤