A Buses' Theory: Bus Planner Edition - Future TEL Stage 4 Bus Rationalisation (PREDICTION)

[@TheSingaporeBoy]

My opinion: 10: 10 will confirm be on the list but we hope that 10 can wait until CCL 6 opens since it duplicates much of the CCL then you can cut it to Shenton Way. 14: This is a tricky service to amend. The sector only meets TEL at Bedok South and Orchard Boulevard but with many services along East Coast Road, its likely to be a supplementary service along the East Coast Road sector together with 10 and 12 and move to OTA 36: for now 36 will be safe until the sector to the airport opens up. The key sector is between Marine Parade and Marina Centre/Orchard and expect it to drop even further once the Airport sector opens 47: pretty much duplicates much of the TEL and it is likely to be on the list. With much duplication along the sector along the Marine Parade Road belt, it is likely to be on the list of amendments. But hopefully the bus can be amended to somewhere since the sector between bedok south road and MP road is unique, it is likely that they can amend it to somewhere (prob part of ECP service Road sector) 16: 16 can be the SOS service for TEL4 since it serves the unique sector at dakota due to the schools along the route before heading to city/orchard 197: 197 is the service its not mentioned but it is likely to be part of TEL 4 rationalisation. Bedok Marine Parade sector has a lot of bus services (16, 31, 196, 197) and its likely to be cut to L1G/Kallang. Missing sectors can be covered by 31 and some services along Tanjong Katong/Paya Lebar. 853M: Weaker demand for 853M makes it likely to be withdrawn on weekends and since there are many duplicating routes between Marine Parade and Upp East Coast Road, it is high likely to be on the withdrawn list. 966: 966 has a unique reason to be rationalised not because of the route (only meets TEL at Woodlands and Marine Parade, in the future, Mount Pleasant) but due to drivers welfare, it is likely to be cut to Eunos where there are many bus connections to Marine Terrace and Marine Parade. (I will get angry if this bus is withdrawn) since demand is steady from medium to high along the route. This is in my opinion on the bus service that is affected. We can give opinions but the authority has the final say....

[@xianyao25]

But you have to see if the mrt allow them to bring along their luggages into the trains or not. 36 is more or less very important route not only for residents but for tourists as well. as no direct trains that ply from airport to orchard area.

[@andrewsitu3472]

966 can operate between Gali Batu and Amber Circus as WL to BP portion is well served by 187, 960 and 963. 197 can be amended to Bidadari with 196 replacing the eastern leg between Guillemard Road and Bedok central. 853 can merge with 22 and terminate at Eunos. 853M can be replaced by 134M from Bidadari to Marine Crescent.

[@TIB1106EProductions]

​@@andrewsitu347222 would be a very gd replacement to cover between eunos and marine parade.

[@Goodwonderland191]

For Bus 966 mostly likely short to other interchanges instead of Eunos

[@TIB1106EProductions]

@@Goodwonderland191 if let say 966 terminate at upp east coast ter instead of looping at marine parade roundabt, would ppl complain abt the loss of connection between eunos and parkway parade?

[@LoSoulzMemoryTrack2Cache]

10 better to shorten at most to harbourfront, weekday and weekend demand can be somehow stabilized

[@STANEC5929B]

For me it will be from tampines into and loop at Bayshore MRT, I mean just look at the amount of duplication after nearby the MRT station

[@LoSoulzMemoryTrack2Cache]

​@@STANEC5929Bpart of it's eastern route isn't much duplicated between tampines to east coast/Dakota plus it could be a fast option between tampines and harbourfront on weekends

[@andrewsitu3472]

@@LoSoulzMemoryTrack2Cache better than 65 which is carrying the weight of DTL3.

[@PegasusBigBang]

I would argue that TEL4 may actually help boost 16 ridership because it has some pretty unique sectors along Joo Chiat Road and Dunman. 16 will still be needed to connect to Marine Parade MRT from Dunman and Joo Chiat so no way its going to be cut around that area. As for its Orchard - Havelock sector, 16 is well patronized between Old Airport and Orchard/Bras Basah despite CCL being an alternative. Maybe if they really wanna rationalise 16 to reduce duplication with TEL, they can amend 16 to loop around Tomlinson Road like 36 and perhaps 36 can be extended to terminate at Bukit Merah int via 132's route along Tanglin Road, Tiong Bahru Road and Henderson Road. Just my 2 cents.

[@OV3RGR4WN]

Will u make a vid about bus 296: new feeder

[@TIB1234T]

Soon but not now. Maybe next two weeks

[@aehighfmcolinchin]

Bus 10 will also be affected by the possible Circle Line Stage 6 rationalisation

[@Iamwhatiam76]

Hopefully they learn something that shortens/Withdrawns is not a good idea

[@TIB1106EProductions]

Any hearsay what actually will happen. Rode 196e just now, demand still ard but not much

[@aehighfmcolinchin]

Sorry to pester you this. Could you do the same for the possible Circle Line Stage 6 and Cross Island Line Phases 1 and 2 rationalisations?

[@TIB1234T]

Not so soon but i'll try to see what are the possibilities to predict under these two rationalisations seperately

[@kangchanyeol]

TEL: Svc 10, 14, 16, 36, 47, 196, 966 (Amendment) Withdrawal: 10e, 14e, 30e, 196e

[@kangchanyeol]

If u think abt it the next interchange station for CCL and TEL is Marina Bay. So I wouldn't be surprise if it is withdrawn earlier

[@pata-hs1qr]

If it happens, 197 can cover for both 16 & 196 as it is one of the bus routes connecting the full stretch of Marine Parade Road to Bedok Bus Interchange, although there is 31 that is at the bus stop opposite Bedok MRT, which may be inconvenient compared to taking the bus from the bus interchange which might be more convenient.

[@SGrailadventure2004]

Bus 43?

[@Cat_face]

Probably wouldn’t happen in a few years but probably a few months after TEL4 open (or at least a year)

[@TIB1234T]

Will take a year to an a half for LTA to conclude

[@SGrailadventure2004]

Have to see the demand for TEL4 first before they decide, similar to TEL3 (but luckily 167 escaped from the withdrawals 'for now')

[@pata-hs1qr]

196 will get cut short to avoid duplicating the TEL from Shenton Way to Siglap, 10 will get affected due to lower demand than 14, with CCL6 & TEL5 opening soon, affecting the demand of 10. 16 & 16M will get combined into 16, just like how 162 & 162M was combined into 162. I can see 197 covering the sector of 196 from Bedok Interchange to Marine Terrace like how 859 was amended to duplicate 167 when 167 was reduced to operate at half an hour interval & how 121 was extended to shenton way when 75 was shortened to bukit merah bus interchange. What do you think? I think the service enhancmenet for 197 from Kallang MRT to Bedok Interchange might be in preparation for TEL Stage 4. 14 will get enhanced frequency to cover for 10 like how 980's frequency was increased when 167 was reduced to 30 minutes interval.

[@kennycai8695]

(Spoilers for the video, you have been warned.) 36 - Not in the short term, like I mentioned in the video featuring the route. 36 still has demand between Marine Parade and Changi Airport from airport workers commuting to and from their workplace. 36 may stay, but as admin predicts, 36 will be an OTA route during off-peak hours. 10 and 14 - Between the two, 14 has a stronger case to be spared, since with the benefit of hindsight, keeping one parallel route has proven to be positive, just look at the demand of 147 post-NEL, which is still pretty good. I still advocate for 10 to be spared, albeit reduced to an off-peak OTA route between Tampines and Shenton Way, since the EWL is already operating at peak capacity, and the DTL does not call at the primary demand point of the financial district: the area around Tanjong Pagar MRT. This is where the "all-MRT" approach does not work out. 16 - I think 16 will be affected by TEL rationalisation, just not for stage 4. Remember, 132 is another route on the chopping block, so my suggestion is to have 16 take over for 132 between Orchard Boulevard and Bukit Merah, since its current sectors are covered by the TEL3 and service 175. Unless another route covers for 16's unique sector along Joo Chiat Road, this route is pretty safe. 196 - My prediction is 196 and 197 will both be affected, in order to funnel all demand into one specific route in the East and the West. Once again, the TEL does not serve Tanjong Pagar, and does not connect to the DTL or EWL in the east, so transfers between lines will be problematic. Plus, Cantonment residents will raise a stink again if another route gets taken away, with 75 gone, 167 reduced to 30 min frequencies, and 121 barely even meeting demand, and 196 is their only route to Jalan Bukit Merah (around Bukit Merah Int) at the moment. 196 gets amended to operate between Bedok and Bukit Merah (with 132 potentially gone, there will be a berth available for 196), 197 is amended to cover for 196 between Dover Road and Bukit Merah, and shortened to terminate at Lorong 1 Geylang so the TEL4 and 196 gets the primary demand in Marine Parade. As for 197's unique sector at Guillemard Road, 47 may be extended to cover for it.

[@andrewsitu3472]

132 must wait till CRL opens. I predict 132 and 165 will be in the spotlight when that day comes.

[@xianyao25]

I don't think 10 and 14 will be affected as it goes via east coast road. Maybe 14e may be withdrawn but 10e may not as it is quite popular. For 36 I think may go alternative with 36m per trip and there will be 36m that's go express from ecp to suntec. Then 196 I think this bus will be hard to predict as this will make or break. The 966 and 47 I think will merged

[@TIB1234T]

But because both 10 & 14 has a strong CBD - City bond by travel through Bayshore, LTA will make this tactic to make commuters push by taking 48 to Siglap. Remember that LTA wants a transfer method by changing from bus to MRT

[@xianyao25]

I think either one will amend to go via bedok south AVE 1 or siglap road but I think 10 may stay as it is as LTA need to have a backup in case of overcrowding or trains breakdown. Will become ota like 167. I think 14 amend to go bedok south AVE 1 then bedok south road then bedok south AVE 3 then new upper changi road then bedok north road and so on.

[@xianyao25]

​​​​@@TIB1234Tthen what is the point of being the best public transport in the world when it is so limited ways to travel? It is not just MRT but still have buses taxi and phv. If they just want to use MRT why not put all trains in every houses to workplaces and leisure. Then when the world invent teleportation I think no need public transportation anymore.

[@Jor_Jor_and_Char_chan]

I think 167 will be part of the TEL 4 Bus Rationalisation

[@TIB1234T]

Might review again in a year time from now i guess

[@Goodwonderland191]

@@TIB1234T I feel LTA should not redrawn it . Best extend the route to somewhere

[@YaoboyProd2K15]

I think 15, 966 & 16M will be rationalized in a few years time. All 3 routes will be cut to avoid duplication of TEL, or reduced to OTA.

[@TIB1234T]

Why 15?

[@glenn84]

15 isn't duplicated. Unless you mean 16?

[@chanyongkeong7295]

if 16M withdraws, most likely introduce 851M to cover its lost sector along Jalan BM

[@markraphaeldivina]

36 you better not be axed completely or else… AHHHHHHH anyways 10e/14e/196e, fine you can go since TEL4 stealing your demand 10/14/16 STAY 196 Clementi - Shenton Way/Marina Centre maybe???

[@LunarTesting23]

10e & 14e will 100% discontinue as part of TEL4 rationalisation. No doubt about that.

[@markraphaeldivina]

Well I can’t agree more Mister 7069 Jokes aside, this is kinda similar to how 74e and 151e got yeeted due to low ridership

[@gxw8851]

Nice Video! For bus service 36, the chance of it getting rationalised for TEL4 is about 50% since most commuters would still prefer to take bus service 36 for now as compared to the TEL. For bus services 10 and 14, the chances of it getting rationalised are quite high as it duplicates longer sectors along the TEL. For bus services 10e and 14e, it is very likely to get withdrawn due to the low ridership after the opening of the TEL4. For bus service 16, the chance of it getting rationalised is about 25% because of the high demand at some parts along its route. For bus service 196, I think it will be withdrawn due to low ridership too.

[@glenn84]

36 is a critical route for NE to East coast region since there isn't a quick connection from NEL to TEL

[@ChongLeTianGyss]

will bus 135 be withdrawn

[@UpheavalRacing]

Absolutely not. 135 doesn't even duplicate TEL4 that much

[@irregularedspeakers]

196 is indeed at risk. It has its good days when the TEL4 aint around but now because the TEL4 will cover liek almost 50% of its sector, 196 will see it becoming a West-Central svc instead. I think it may be amended to terminate at Marina Centre or best to loop at Marine Parade considering the other part of Mountbatten’s rd lack of bus services now(12 and 14 won’t help) 16 is also a risk but really dangerous. It has duplicated parts of stage 3 and now with stage 4, it’s gonna be a huge pain to 16’s demand. Tahts why as much as 16M being the most useless bus svc ever introduced, 16 may never see itself in the east or even going to the Merdeka Bridge soon. However for 10,14 and 36, probably unlikely due to their links despite its close proximity to the TEL4. 36 might need to stay since it won’t duplicate the TEL4 fully(yes ECP) while 14 I rather it not be touched tbh, cuz it’s demand is still high as much I am concerned. Same for 10. However, another route that I find at risk is 197. It may sound bias but come to think about it, 197 will also duplicate some parts of TEL4 cuz Marine Parade sector. However, if 196 is gonna face the chopping block, 197 might face a small risk. In short, 196 and 16 can get shortened as much as LTA love it’s toy trains so much, BUT, pls, I hope the LTA bus planners doesn’t relapse into having dementia to withdraw 196.

[@TIB1234T]

Theres a rumour to let 197 end at L1G the moment new ITH opens

[@andrewsitu3472]

@@TIB1234T back to the original route before it merged with 41. If this indeed happens 196 can replace the eastern leg from Guillemard Road onwards.

[@irregularedspeakers]

This rationalisation gonna be something very interesting As much TEL3 has done it, TEL4 will uncover more flaws of LTA’s handling on almost every bus rationalisation they’ve done so far(this is like rationalisation in a sector heavily reliant on buses so yea)

[@andrewsitu3472]

@@irregularedspeakers the wheels of LTA rationalisation exercises started to fall off since DTL2 days.

[@pata-hs1qr]

​@@andrewsitu3472 merging 197 with 41 is the same as combining 162 & 162M into 162, to optimize resources.

[@aehighfmcolinchin]

It doesn't only apply to Stage 4 but the final Stage 5 also

[@SGrailadventure2004]

Bus Service 43 is likely to be affected unfortunately as it copies the stretches between Marina Parade and Sungei Bedok stations, but hopefully it can be saved

[@_ranD0m_perS0n_358]

What about 966? will it be shortened to Eunos Int😮😢😢

[@andrewsitu3472]

Makes more sense to make it operate from Gali Batu instead of Woodlands.

[@TRANSLASLionsCityMovia]

@@andrewsitu3472Woodlands - Petir Road got demand hor..... same to PIE (Jalan Toa Payoh).

[@andrewsitu3472]

@@TRANSLASLionsCityMovia WL to TP can take TEL to Caldecott then switch to 235. WL to Petir Road can take 960 and 963.

[@TRANSLASLionsCityMovia]

@@andrewsitu3472 mind you, the 966 route is already too long. Please be considerate for BCs also. There have been few cases of 966 BCs have to stop halfway go toilet..... If you think all these, yes & no.... but bare in mind. Moving to Gali Batu will not even help the BC Welfare also.....

[@andrewsitu3472]

@@TRANSLASLionsCityMovia going by your logic 972 should be extended to SWT so the drivers can layover.

[@sg1705g]

why not amend 36 to shenton way to go to changi airport via express and city?

[@TIB1234T]

Wait till LTA charges tourist with express fares. They arent stupid to take the big advantage to profits

[@andrewsitu3472]

16 could lose its DD fleet.

[@TIB1234T]

I dont see the point of having DDs on 16 tbh

[@andrewsitu3472]

@@TIB1234T it already has some.

[@johngay8]

let’s us predict whether 966 will also be withdrawn for good or not too.. 😢😮

[@andrewsitu3472]

966 becomes, at worst, Gali Batu to Parkway Parade.

[@Yyyy12311]

I’m jus glad sv 966 was not mentioned but ure right in a sense all these services that was mentioned above is definitely a great danger

[@Ruffytheboy]

Actually, there are more bus services that probably get rationalisation, some of them are unconfirmed. But for now, let's get to my opinion, shall we? 36: Actually, there are still number of people taking 36 from CGA to City. And with TEL stage 4 opens, there's no doubt that this service will get shortened as I still think that people will continue to take svc 36. But maybe when TEL extension of Changi Airport terminal 5 station opens, service 36 probably gonna get rationalisation. But again, people will still take service 36, even with TEL. So this one, don't touch. 10e & 14e: We already know that this 2 service, along with 196e will get withdrawn due to TEL Rationalisation. So I will not comment on this. 10 & 14: This however, 14 is likely to be spared from TEL Rationalisation since the demand is actually quite high. But unfortunately for service 10, it is mostly get shorten to Shenton Way since the demand is quite weak between Kent Ridge and CBD. But what I can suggest is that can shorten to Habourfront. So that people can travel from Tampines to Habourfront via CBD. OTA wise, it's up to LTA. 16: I may not know wheather if this service will falls under TEL Rationalisation. All I can suggest is to merge with 16M. Simple as that 196: I think we know (if not, some) that this service will falls under TEL Rationalisation. Now, there are 2 scenarios that I can suggest. 1. Shorten to Bukit Merah from Bedok which at least bedok residents can reach to CBD 2. Clementi to Marina Centre or Shenton Way which may sounds unfortunate for Bedok residents. However, there is a solution. The solution is to let svc 197 to replace 196 sector and shorten to L1G/Kallang ITH. However, with 196 from Clementi to CBD, in Marine parade they can any of the services replace svc 196 sector. But bcuz of TEL, I didn't want to suggest even more since TEL4 exist. Some svc like 853M & 966, might be under TEL Rationalisation too. Fortunately for svc 966, due to BC welfare, it is likely to get shorten to Eunos. So thats all I can say this for now