Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex

www.ted.com Economics writer Tim Harford studies complex systems -- and finds a surprising link among the successful ones: they were built through trial and error. In this sparkling talk from TEDGlobal 2011, he asks us to embrace our randomness and start making better mistakes.
TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Featured speakers have included Al Gore on climate change, Philippe Starck on design, Jill Bolte Taylor on observing her own stroke, Nicholas Negroponte on One Laptop per Child, Jane Goodall on chimpanzees, Bill Gates on malaria and mosquitoes, Pattie Maes on the "Sixth Sense" wearable tech, and "Lost" producer JJ Abrams on the allure of mystery. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and TEDTalks cover these topics as well as science, business, development and the arts. Closed captions and translated subtitles in a variety of languages are now available on TED.com, at www.ted.com/translate.

[@CircusOfBedlam]

great talk, i agree completely everyone around me has the god complex "Follow those who seek the truth, run from those who claim to have found it."

[@karlav2023]

We all need to hear this!!! This is exactly what I’m trying to do introspectively and something I want to talk about. We need more humility in our world. I’m willing to get it wrong. I have many times, but I can’t fall for the lie that WE, our humanity, is doomed. I see examples of humility and vulnerability and personal emotional bravery. I work on these things and explore the grey between the clear black and white posts of all the things.

[@Vellwander]

I don't know what schools he went to but my schools were always clear that you could only be right or wrong on questions which were of that nature. The grade was otherwise founded upon the depth of the discussion to the problem, how much insight is displayed and how plausible the conclusion or solution is.

[@HibernumMortis]

Thank you for your kind response, glad you found it to hold some truth. Like Voltaire used to say: 'Ecrassez l'infâme' - smite the indecent. Strife for truth, no matter what. Stranding halfway there and coming up short is far from shameful when a goal is as unachievable as it is sublime.

[@Icy_Sparks]

This video shows me again how important it is to leave ones comfortzone and try things. Plus: I don't feel bad about failing anymore as long as I'm aware of the mistakes done and I admit that even though I'm a self-critical person, it's hard to see that I could have been part of the problem... especially in LOL, still a huge thx to gbay99 for giving the comunity something to think about.

[@JPO1618]

One of the main points I struggle with when thinking of supporting trial and error, and the scientific method in general, is the cost involved in a fully scientific world. The one thing that can be said for the god complex is its low cost both financially and energetically.

[@IAMGiftbearer]

This makes alot of sense, and I love how Archie Cochran made his point to the room full of doctors! It really illustrates that their system has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo even when they're proven wrong and new data proves old assumptions outdated. Throughout history almost every famous landmark in medicine was made by a person who was persecuted by the peers of his/her era, and then later was recognized as a great medical achievement and accepted by the mainstream. Some of us patients are trying to change the status quo in medicine and change it back to where doctors' first responsability is to their patients and rather than letting a patient just suffer to try things to help them. If they wait for Placebo controlled clinical trials to act on behalf of their patients many will die waiting for these empirical treatments to be accepted by mainstream medicine and be considered "standard practice".

[@PeterBormannValonqua]

What a wonderful talk by a brilliant speaker: kudos to Tim Harford!

[@Icemario87]

Pure genius. This should be a mandatory viewing.

[@eLurkr]

good talk, we could do ourselves a favor by approaching things in this honest and humble manner

[@eazyevan1]

I am more aware of myself for watching this! Thank you for the upload!

[@analog_cafe]

Very inspiring, brilliant talk.

[@johnnielawson]

A wonderful and insightful talk by Tim, it certainly has inspired me to be more aware of the differences we all carry around with us. My task now is to see how I can translate that into my service that I provide for people in every corner of the planet, there has to be ways of reaching out to more people than I am at present. Again thank you for stimulating my thoughts around offering something that fits more people. Johnnie Lawson

[@sashakid]

amazing i have shivers all over my body from the story about the mathematician great talk and it is needed to be emphasized more the idea of trail and error i have just looked at my self and well :P god complex is present in me thank you :]

[@libertyvoicejustice]

I enjoyed this and look forward to learning more about Tim Harford. I couldn't help thinking that the trial and error process is a great description of the free market, if only certain economists and politicians (and others) would let us! And I couldn't help but think about Ron Paul when Tim described a politician saying he didn't know all the answers, but it would be good to try different things!

[@KevinBeavers]

13:55 He demonstrates his own fallibility by saying infallibility instead of fallibility

[@wizard970]

Another great video, thank you TED.

[@GypsyLeah]

He even finished perfectly on time. Nice speech.

[@spaceshipable]

we did trial and error at school in maths. like x^3 + x = 10 work out x (i think it was like that) you estimate then move up or down until you have an answer between two approximate points and eventually narrow it down. It worked in the same way as if i say I have picked a number between 1 and 1000 you ask if its above 500. I say yes. You say is it above 750 i say no etc. My point is trial an error is taught.

[@slickxbt]

This is why I love economists. Brilliant, gets you to think!

[@PR0H0LDEM]

the best and the most true statement I heard recently, thanks a lot

[@Mrgonzalez12345339]

What a beautiful lecture.

[@SagarVibhute]

Loved it! It is indeed very difficult to make good mistakes ...

[@DSBrekus]

@NevilleRhysBarnes I can see that my comment was a bit jumbled so I'll try to clarify. Yes artists do try random things and what sells sells, so you can see some of the trial and error/evolution in art. But the reason they try random things is 1. there's no societal risk for failure and 2. they are simply driven to express themselves in some odd form and have intuition that it will be good. Also, art IS subjective, tastes change over time so there will never be a "right" kind of art.

[@BTinHD]

This was refreshing to watch.

[@AFriskyGamer]

This was a very wonderful find!

[@uiuiuiseraph]

This is brilliant

[@thejonjon5000]

Keep moving forward.

[@thisisnotanick]

@shakyl008 Im not entirely sure, but I think he was emphasizing the difference of making a mistake while doing something you are convinced is correct, as opposed to making mistakes because you are trying out different things to find a solution. Or something along those lines.

[@maguilunavia]

“It is very difficult to make good mistakes”... mind blown.

[@ninjack5255]

this is a really effective presentation.

[@LordKilmir]

@MomoTheBellyDancer Yes it is, that's why talks like these are needed. People need to realize that making mistakes isn't bad if you eventually get something better. In fact, several companies are already using a trial and error system to get results. Look at Google for instance; they throw loads of things at the wall and expand on what sticks. Nobody can deny the results.

[@Skeluz]

Awesome talk.

[@lowerlowerhk]

@KingRockets I think it means that making mistakes as an progress of improvement is actually an art difficult to master rather than an act due to laziness and stupidity.

[@1voluntaryist]

Wasn't there a computer or program that used this approach? It ran simulations, discarding most of the less successful, then doing variations on the remaining, and continuing this over and over.

[@LIANG14]

@guitarplayer1293 I can see your point, however you have to remember that evolution didn't have a sentient being that could pick out the 'best' evolution, unlike us where we can (like he described with the nozzle) find the best within a few months. I think encouraging mistakes is the best way, it'd make students feel more confident and willing to question their actions. As long as you also teach them to query their mistakes.

[@dookiecheez]

This is precisely the approach I'd like to see in politics. Trial and error, hypothesis, experimentation. The scientific method in parliament or congress in essence.

[@jonescaleb12]

@derek24hudson Correction: "close minded" people use exactly the same tactics. As a Christian I absolutely LOVED this as well as many other TED talks. The God complex is easy to get sucked into. You reach a certain level of understanding on something and decide that is enough and you don't need anymore information. It happens to religious people and atheists alike. It is part of the human condition. The moment you close down to new information (no matter the source) you have the God complex.

[@niriop]

The problem with trial and error in use of public policy is that mistakes could potentially be so desvastating on such a large level that experimentation becomes an impossible practice, and that many effects may not be felt for years that indicate whether or not the policy was a success. Human beings and societies are not infinite subjects to fiddle about with; entire generations could pass on before the right way is hit on.

[@Bones469]

If they gave thumbs down they prolly dismissed this video without any thought and therefore may very well still possess that self same god-complex. Not everyone is ready or willing to entertain the thought of change. Ideas that require deep introspection of our own belief structures seem to be the most painful. I'll just have to trust God and/or the Universe that even the 68 are learning what they are ready to accept and precisely what they need at this time for their own progression.

[@mohibthepaki]

a grate talk!

[@Bigkaizokufan]

Im with you Raynor!

[@leo333333able]

He's so right.

[@freelowgame]

Mind. Blown.

[@milescend]

Very insightful :)

[@colourmegone]

This seems to me to feed directly into the debate on religion as well, which I would expect given the title. It contrasts two opposing viewpoints, dogma vs nature.

[@YoungdigitalgroupAu]

We're also told to have confidence in our beliefs. If we second guess ourselves, progress can become more difficult. I can see the God complex being a problem, but without it, it could make us more inhibited.

[@ksturgisful]

i Feel agency, trial and error go hand in hand, which we all have and do. anyone can complicate Something which can capture your attention but to find simple truth's even a child can comprehend "trial and error" would prove to be more effective. things have always been simple prior to complex. starting points to evolved ones.

[@FrankFloresRGVZGM]

@tommy605 What questions specifically? I will take on the challenge of trying to answer those questions as a society over the unbelievable circumstances we've created for ourselves in the present system.

[@niekvdbogert]

@KemaTheAtheist However, the kind of T&E he seems to talk about is more of the genetic kind, selection and variation. And with the nozzle example, "we have no idea how or why it works". As with the scientific method those two questions are the questions we try to answer.

[@CJ700777]

@shakyl008 I'm not sure either but it might have been a reference to the trial and error bit he was pushing. So by making mistakes in the "right direction" one is using selective pressure and moving toward positive results in the future.

[@ImagineTheWorld100]

That is really cool.

[@iSideD]

Brilliant.

[@shaunphillimore338]

Archie Cochran had the world record for eating pickled eggs whilst standing on a haggis

[@Kerrian]

@shakyl008 It'll be about making directed errors so not just making a mistake and not learning anything from it. To try and test the right things to either confirm or deny if it improved.

[@conman2317]

@sugatoniik I'm glad you agree with me in relation to the discussed activity.

[@Destro7000]

Amazing talk, essentially speaking out against Arrogance in society.

[@FrankFloresRGVZGM]

When discussing a resource based economy, many people get hung up on the question "who makes the decisions?" A far more relevant and important question is "How are decisions arrived at?" Using the tools of methods of science in application to human concern, we can have access abundance for all people and significantly decrease crime, hunger, poverty and war. To learn more, please look into the Venus Project and the Zeitgeist Movement.

[@xtheakmalx]

Yeah, that is the only problem with this method. In life, you have a limited number of resources that you can use. So its not just try anything and see what fails, but try the most logical solutions and see what doesnt fail. That connects to the evolution thing too, thats why life is so rare in the universe (from what we know).

[@Jarocho2003]

@So5loW Better late than never...as long as you acknowlege the problem then you have a chance of correcting it! Thumbs up!

[@ElCapitanPupuPipi]

For some reason, when he started, I thought he was going to talk about Magneto :P

[@icped]

@blasel33 the basis here is to not care about error and see it as a means to an end because that is what it actually is, unless one just gives up halfway.

[@LudicrousTachyon]

@qtutoringhelps What he does conclude in his talk is that the government should try many different things. They are trying charter schools in some states, some will fail, some will work, and from that we can see what works best. This isn't an excuse to privatize everything, it's merely an excuse try as many options as you can. Banks fund businesses regardless of whether they fail. Where does the failing 10% get their money? Every experiment is an investment toward the best solution.

[@colourmegone]

@BitterBurst There isn't really a "league", it's an expression meaning an ordered list, in this case of countries. Criteria include longevity, access to health care, per capita income, and so on. Search on "prosperity league tables".

[@thisisnotanick]

@Tradd20 Thats subjective. I think this was an excellent talk.

[@imdallask]

Whiskey and Tartan... that's a good one!

[@skinniyah]

13:52 "It's so hard to admit our own infallibility" - He means fallibility. He has a point, but it is not an across the board point. Much of the world is complex, but not everything is. His point about trial and error should be applied in areas of complexity, but binary issues still exist. 2+2 still equals 4. Wisdom is knowing where to apply what, and not arguing for universal uncertainty - otherwise our future generations will keep reinventing the wheel.

[@Silhouette93]

@tvswnet Not using trial and error does not mean staunch rigidity. What I'm saying is we should make educated and informed guesses at what is best because, in politics, error can be catastrophic.

[@lisa8220]

@Ko252 That's right, he/she can breath deep and draw all reality in and breath it out. It is the year of the Dragon, and we are his/her breath.

[@iMuffinsx3]

Thank you gbay99 :)

[@johnybravo5089]

Tim Harford has given a very insightful lecture on a very obvious though vitally important concept of trial and error. He makes a solid point that business organizations, politicians, etc. should incorporate trial and error into their decision making process. But this concept works only for engineering or technological development. When human resource is involved, this doesn't really work. If you do too much trial and errors, your organization will become slightly unstable and the employees might become frustrated. Even in the case of national development, it is extremely improbable to succeed in your first attempt. Let us just take the case of demonetization in India. In his manifesto in the 2014 elections, the Prime Minister had promised people to reduce the black money in the economy. This was a big promise and wiping out black money is considered extremely difficult, if not impossible. He made his first trial attempt by demonetizing the currency notes and replacing it new ones in the hope that black money will be rendered useless. This can be said to be an experiment, a good one, because it FAILED. He recieved a huge backfire from opposition parties and the citizens, to the extent that it might cost him his chair in the next elections. There are dozens, or even hundreds of experiments for his goal out there, and there is one out there which might work. But can he do even one more experiment?

[@tommy605]

@Lightrider4444 Not everyone is motivated by money. Many are motivated by power. Some aren't motivated at all. But the point is, once a group of people start to use something as money (ie, "I'll trade you this for that" type of thing) then you start to put a demand on some items, giving them a monetary value. Now that things start to have a value to them, you get people that start to collect and hoard those items, creating a short supply, increasing the value, making the holder wealthier.

[@kOaMaster2]

great!

[@HeavyMetalMouse]

"We do what we must, because we can." :)

[@FrankFloresRGVZGM]

@tommy605 You have data to support your assertions?

[@Grishnackolyte]

I like this guy.

[@ghostbuddy]

@SystemLordNemo I don't get a different impression from further re-reads. Your second comment seems to further justify this interpertation of the events. " but come now would you support a state even if you would know it would do some utilitarian good(what it DOES)? " . From a utilitarian perspective, the issue is weither a state maximizes what is "good" , "utilitarian good ", is different from "good". In that it assumes the cost benefit utilitarian analysis is in the states favor.

[@dennissullivan2285]

Don't say you are beautiful. Makes you sound shallow. Think of another genuine compliment. A way to save face, feel less shy; ask if she is seeing anyone. Then she probably get the idea, and say yes or no. You could use trial, and error, with different people. See what works best. It could be tested, with large numbers of people.

[@easyBob100]

I share this video as much as I can. #EconNerd

[@sumyuenchan6959]

this is do like the life, we all want to know what is our future, but actually the answer is life itself. Trial and error, trial and error, and then find the life for you

[@Krazeel]

There was a time I'd go to church to hear wisdom and coherence. Now I watch ted. (sorry if it sounds like an ad :) )

[@KingRockets]

i didnt get his last point about the japanese guy, can someone please explain? Thanks

[@tommy605]

@Lightrider4444 I've already gone through these on one of the Venus Project videos. Actually, not even all/ Just a couple. We couldn't get past the human behavior and motivation to do dangerous work problems that are obvious problems. What I wanted to ask is what about those that do not want to join this project? All the resources will be mined within the city, so how do I get my water and gas and such? Since there's no need for a money in the city, I can't just pay for it. Or, are they forced?

[@elchafa337]

@KemaTheAtheist I'm with you man, the moment before him saying "trial and error" in my mind I was thinking "science".

[@BishweshJoshi]

@tvswnet perhaps it is and I won't deny it, we all generalize which is why we all are fallible but still i'm only focusing on one specific issue which you claimed and that directly contradicted with the my knowledge of history and that's the only thing I'm pointing out.

[@HippopotamusPencil]

@dm7g The thing about should is that it doesn't have to be possible, it just has to be the best possible situation. His statement might be naive, but that does not draw away any truth from it.

[@HigherPlanes]

@KingRockets He's saying that we should all learn to make good mistakes thru trial and error instead of pretending to known everything (i.e. the God Complex)

[@Kyorusan]

Awesome. :)

[@niekvdbogert]

@KemaTheAtheist I think you have a point there. Strange enough, while I was watching the video i was like: "jeah right, like the scientists dont know why it works AFTER the ifnal product". Somehow I parroted the speaker im my comment to you. Thnx for the reply! Kind regards

[@Jarocho2003]

@xinlo I think all these statements of "denial" of having any faults are in the same ball park as "I'm sorry", "I was wrong", "please forgive me!", and so on...all point to a God Complex Disorder!

[@SevenDeMagnus]

Hi. Tim just needed to sum it as just another form of faith & reason. Representing both with 1 (Trial & error and God). There's no argument at all. Just use both you'll have a more complete answer:) (1)reason + (1)faith = 2 (1)Trial and error + (1)God = 2 You gain more by a good combination of two time tested (truths) tools: faith + reason. You try and get the error to form your facts things that work thing that don't, you try it once & sometimes get no error & then add faith as well. Gbu

[@shandcunt9455]

@FmMan33 I think EmmaTheAtheist summed it up for me, telling people that trial and error are useful is similar to saying exercise can be good for you. "Sometimes trying something and failing can be a good learning mechanism" -WOW REALLY......

[@ghostbuddy]

@SystemLordNemo That was also intended to be a consequentialist statement. I have no idea what the rest of your comment is refering to.

[@meowmeami]

@2bsirius is living in australia on the oppisite side of the world, i ask myself is marmite just Vegemite that england claimed as their own?

[@Silhouette93]

@tvswnet I'm not saying we shouldn't learn from our mistakes. I'm saying we have enough expertise to make informed decisions - we need not trial a political model, we should put in place a model which we believe will actually work (then make adjustments if needed). The space of available political models is far too large to "trial" and the damage caused by the trial-ing would be catastrophic.

[@2bsirius]

Maybe if we all gave up on finding the 'right' answer and convincing ourselves that we are the gods of our God complexes, we might find that making progress easier....because we'd be looking for something that works and not for enforcing our own infallibility.

[@jovinjw]

Tokyo,London, New York ........ where have i heard this......

[@eroliva]

El complejo de Dios" nos enseña (en especial a los economistas) que no podemos aspirar a entender como funciona la economía. Es un simple proceso de "ensayo y error" el que ha hecho que llegemos a comprender algo del funcionamiento de la economía.

[@colourmegone]

@BitterBurst It's being done. There is a league table of countries which uses a range of social factors to rank countries. Socialist societies trump capitalist societies on all standard of living factors, e.g. education, social welfare, health care, etc. Capitalist countries trump socialist on economic growth. Depends on how you want to live. Unfortunately most of us are stuck with where we're born.

[@Jarocho2003]

@stlyes good one! I don't know either!