Could Myanmar's Rebels Actually Win?

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For about three years now, Myanmar has been under a military rule. But, it appears that the rebels are having a real possibility of winning the conflict. So, in this video, we're going to take a look at why the rebels are on the front foot, why the military is losing control, and what this means for the future of Myanmar.
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2 - thediplomat.co...
3 - www.cfr.org/bl...
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7 - www.brookings....
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9 - www.crisisgrou...
10 - www.usip.org/p...
11 - www.reuters.co...
12 - myanmar.iiss.o...
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[@fiorinopizio4554]

Media giving attention to long lasting unknown conflicts makes me happy

[@soundscape26]

Are you hooked on conflicts or something?

[@motianton]

Happy they get international recognition ​@@soundscape26

[@fiorinopizio4554]

@@soundscape26 *yes*

[@soundscape26]

@@fiorinopizio4554 Seems so. 😄

[@owenlindkvist5355]

It's not an unknown conflict. It's simply an insignificant one.

[@Dan-qy3td]

My mum is from Myanmar (first gen immigrant) and trying to explain the conflict to people is always so difficult because they have no context for it - thank you for making this, pieces like this are so important for shining a light on the “forgotten” conflicts of the world

[@heinhtetnaing3389]

❤ I am still in Myanmar.

[@greendragonspirit1646]

@dan-qy3td my mum is also from Myanmar, it's sad that the best the West can do is sanction Myanmar which only makes the people suffer more , but the west just cares about pleasing their master america. I personally feel that if Britain didn't get rid of the Burmese royal family, the junta would never have taken over the country.

[@a.a.6789]

​@@greendragonspirit1646welll you can't really know that cause Thailand exists and doesn't mean Myanmar would've been non-racist and unified. Plus, a royal family going away is a met positove anywhere, that's one less thing the ppl have to worry about when the Junta is eventually defeated, maybe not in this war but in the mext inevetable one in any military regime.

[@greendragonspirit1646]

@a.a.6789 a royal family is better than a military dictatorship, and I'm certain that the royal family would have been respected by the military . I'm no royal family fan ( especially the British one).

[@a.a.6789]

​@@greendragonspirit1646 I definitely agree on the first point, a military gov is the worst thing that can possibly happen to a country but again Thailand is a country that suffers from an oppressive monarchy and junta at the same time, both respect each other and have zero respect for the people, so we can't be sure that wouldn't have happened in Myanmar.

[@sucramuk]

While it's quite amusing it should be noted that Karen (also Karenni) isn't pronounced Ka-ruhn like the western name, but rather Kah-ren with emphasis and a rising tone on the 2nd syllable. They don't actually need to speak with the manager.

[@rasallyjohansen3951]

dont bother with these ignorant peoples they know very vell theyre just a bunch of children with new toys overusing it

[@joelwieland1767]

They don't need to speak to the manager, they ARE the manager

[@JasonAtlas]

Westerns like myself struggle a lot with tonal languages. Nothing like it in our languages.

[@minimump5248]

Damn I've been pronouncing their name as Kayin the whole time. That's I was taught in school

[@Football_Head21]

@@minimump5248you’re not wrong either

[@Chrissy717]

So many forgotten conflicts with thousands and sometimes millions of deaths...

[@jakobtarrasericsson4295]

Which makes claims that the Israel-Hamas wars that it is somehow 'the worst humanitarian disaster' or 'Gaza genocide' at times disingenious. I do not wish to tone down the horrific circumstances that exists in Gaza at this time of writing, but the entire media focus on the Gaza situation alone forgoes the fact there are also humanitarian disasters/destructive conflicts ongoing in Sudan, Yemen, Myanmar as well beside the Israel-Hamas conflict or the Ukraine-Russian war, with situations that is legitimately as severe.

[@adamelghalmi9771]

@@jakobtarrasericsson4295 the reason the mainstream media is focused solely on that conflict is because "our greatest ally in the middle east" is involved in it

[@wumpyjumps]

@@jakobtarrasericsson4295 The media focus on Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine seems more about the governments being actively involved. Most protests against Israel are because their governments actively help them. The other conflicts are being ignored by the governments and so the media does as well. I don't think that's justified but it makes sense for the media to focus on things they are more involved in. Not to mention that both the government and media are more likely to focus on the countries they do because Russia is a famous opponent of the West and a big threat to Eastern Europe, whereas the Israel-Palestine conflict is famous.

[@legatilegions8055]

Who says they are forgotten, we cant follow every single conflict around the world, im sure if you lived in asia, you would hear more about this, because it effects you, while on the other side of the world, we got our own conflicts to follow, but the neighboring countries should stabalize the country and kick out the military junta

[@Mr_Topek]

​@@jakobtarrasericsson4295 They're not as profitable for media to milk as ukraine or israel conflicts.

[@JustaRandomGuy890]

“Hey boss can you send me the PDF?” My boss:

[@rizkyadiyanto7922]

sends you Karens instead.

[@injest1928]

Run to the Dry Zone, Karen's fear it.

[@Chris14245]

what is it ,what is it " People Defence Force" killing and murdering their own citizens . According to the victims families by PDF

[@Peeoto]

Call your Mons

[@theinthanhlan4386]

Sorry I am joking 🤣🤣 the joke = ☠

[@jochen9367]

I never thought I would hear the words Karen National Army, but here we are

[@LordBathtub]

You didn't, it's the Karen National Union

[@KyawTun-rl2zp]

KNA and KNU both exist.

[@KyawTun-rl2zp]

I think KNA is the border guard.

[@dengist8172]

What about the terrorist group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)

[@muhammedjaseemshajeef6781]

Karen is an ethnic group in Myanmar

[@anlydaly5726]

There are two wars for freedom. The war to win it, which can start and end at any time. And the eternal war to keep it, protect it, and strengthen it. With the eternal war the moment you loose, is the moment you've believed the war is over.

[@Theplanettera]

That's a powerfull quote

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@Theplanettera It's a simplistic quote. Completely misrepresents the situation of Myanmar, which is extremely complex. It pretends this is some idealistic war between democrats and autocrats, when in fact there are dozens of armed groups that often don't even get along with each other.

[@ashrunzeda4099]

​@@ArawnOfAnnwn Who's saying the quote doesn't represent the armed groups also?

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@ashrunzeda4099 I am. Not everything is about your ideals. There are other people in the world, with other priorities and even values i.e. actual diversity, that's more than skin deep. In this case, this is very much an inter-ethnic conflict too.

[@davileite780]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn Well, an optimist can hope that the differences between such groups aren't irreconcilable, and once the junta is no longer in control, the new government is able to peacefully decide who wants to join, who wants to join with more autonomy, and perhaps even who wants to secede and do their own thing.

[@Rose-jr4tx]

I've visited Myanmar which is an absolutely beautiful country. Myanmar people are honest, friendly and helpful. Myanmar: From century-long Western Colonialism to decades-long Western boycott/sanction to current Western sponsored civil war.. It never ends. 😔🤷 I hope Myanmar manages to sort things out. Peace and prosperity to all Myanmar people! ☮☮☮

[@plainjane-rb8ky]

Peace!

[@goldenspace902]

@@plainjane-rb8ky We can get peace after overthrowing the military junta.

[@Yadayadayada-su7wo]

@@plainjane-rb8ky Loving peace is all we need in this world. Just saying.

[@VTh-f5x]

True. The western agencies wouldn't let the rebels lose. China won't allow the tatmadaw to lose. Genuinely could go on for next 40-50 years like colombia or afghanistan.

[@knowledgeispower8625]

Slavery, Genocide, War, Colonization, Colonialism, Imperialism, etc are all evil things done and benefited by evildoers. There's hardly any Muslim, Hindu or Christian there up until Colonialism. I suppose it's fair to say that many of the tragedies that the nation is facing today, such as racial, ethnic, religious & territorial conflicts, started with Colonialism. By the way, many thanks for the insightful informative, multi-page comments by 'Lady Luck' at, "Myanmar: Rebel group says its captured strategic town from ruling military/BBC News", on KZbin.

[@IK_MK]

If Adobe Acrobat has taught me anything Its that the PDF is the superior force😤🔥🔥

[@andrefilipe9042]

✊ 🔥

[@mrgarland5210]

Probably yeah. Problem is keeping the factions together. The many separatist factions are the ones who have armed and trained the PDF. They will have a price for removing the military.

[@ravenblood1954]

Wonder what the Chinese will do. Their interference will probably define the future of the country

[@kimwit1307]

Quite. If they manage to overthrow the junta, the biggest challenge will be to keep the various rebel factions from not turning on each other. A balkanized Myanmar might well be the end result.

[@Ugapiku]

Well those rebel factions can act as political parties and go for an election, then they will all split government but in democratic way and no need for war anymore. That's just copium though haha...

[@Brandon210-q4n]

@@kimwit1307 Honestly, as long as it's some sort of peace after all this, I don;t mind.

[@kimwit1307]

@@Brandon210-q4n I can understand that. But history teaches that this rarely happens in these kind of circumstances, unfortunately.

[@JongeKroost]

I really appreciate that you guys are still giving this conflict the attention it deserves!

[@mtrso7920]

Myanmar's situation is under-reported by the global media just because they are geopolitically insignificant, but they're fighting for a very good cause with much effort, the world needs to see this and lend support to the oppressed people

[@birdstwin1186]

No. I find it funny during any other times your kind always say the world is too busy sticking its nose in minority country business and Europeans suffer from savior syndrome, yet when you are in trouble you want those saviors to come save.

[@Justanormalcat7]

So instead of writing an actual refutation of OP's point,You instead resorted to using the strawman fallacy. Where did OP ever say in their comment that europe has a saviour mentality. He's just asking for more media attention in regards to the situation in Burma,Which is extremely under-reported if not almost forgotten.​

[@ASlickNamedPimpback]

@@Justanormalcat7 you replied to the wrong comment

[@Justanormalcat7]

​@@ASlickNamedPimpbackthat comment that I wrote said reply for has since been deleted.

[@danielmaher964]

Myanmar is strategically significant, connecting China to the Indian Ocean.

[@nathanpangilinan4397]

Well, looks like someone really wants to talk to the Manager of Myanmar.

[@dagdamor1]

No wonder they have the advantage, they have veterans of the Area 51 Raid with them.

[@ClassifiedUnit-135]

Still waiting till this gets funny.

[@anti-mate407]

​@@ClassifiedUnit-135same 700 days and counting

[@quinkana1]

When the Karens actually have weapons:

[@Naturenerd1000]

This is insane Myanmar is divided into like 6 or 7 different countries right now. Controlled by different factions and mini states. And the fact the military is being pushed in the center of the county means they will have no supply routes and loose.

[@narsimhas1360]

They will be fine as long as they have a coast

[@jayden7945]

not necessarily, the further theyre pushed in the more centralized their forces will become, the reason the freedom fighters/rebels have been so successful is theyve stretched the military extremely thin by doing attacks all over the country, fold a piece of paper in half, at first its easy but the more you fold the harder it becomes

[@Manomed3]

@@jayden7945 rebels seem to fail near where army isn't stretched thin

[@Peaceforallhumans]

Appreciated from Myanmar 🇲🇲.Means a lot for us when media finally covering the news.

[@Peaceforallhumans]

As for the people who don’t know how we feel maybe try living in our shoes.Although i dont wish for anyone to be born in Myanmar.

[@okasur1]

Not what the Burmese were saying when it was the Robingya 's turn seven years ago. Then, they told the world to mind its own business.

[@Peaceforallhumans]

@@okasur1 Maybe get your facts straight first.The revolution right now is different from the crisis from Rakhine before.Now all the people living in Myanmar (even Rohingyas are fighting against the common enemy junta).

[@hekashome7539]

@@okasur1exactly, we lived like that as now you are doing… so we are facing this as which you might find yourself in some future.. Myanmar is geopolitically important for both Democratic countries and Communist countries… but so far … Military terrorists are getting effective helps from Communist nations while Myanmar people are getting just Lips services from so called Democratic countries 😢

[@________7811]

How is the situation there in myanmar now???

[@joshpam23]

I've been wanting an update on Myanmar. Thank you.

[@davidbowie5023]

I think the Arakan Army will have the most attention. They are the least favourable to the federation term and have made clear they wanted to restore the Arakanese statehood, an ancient Buddhist empire in the region. Unfortunately, Modi's constant support for the Tatmadaw has made Indian interests received with excessive hostility by the Rakhine locals, and many Indians were even killed there by them. Modi's mismanagement in foreign policy in Myanmar is ruinous for India's interests in Myanmar too as the Tatmadaw didn't receive India as an equal partner.

[@morwickchesterham3875]

What are Indios even doing in Myanmar?

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@morwickchesterham3875 Not much. India has mostly been pragmatic. It maintained relations with the govt, little else. They did cooperate somewhat on the Rakhine issue, but only cos they were fleeing into India, upsetting the locals.

[@lordlegendian0287]

Ya sure blame Modi and BJP but forget the copious amount of trouble India had when it tried to do the right thing? Northwest Myanmar is the haven for anti Indian Armed Groups that often engage in cross border attack and other illicit activities for a separatist ambitions in India and for their own selfish benefit. Without a friendly and cooperating Junta NE India will be a second Kashmir and India enough with dealing the Northern one.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Also Modi hasn't deviated much on foreign policy wrt Myanmar. Even his predecessors dealt with Myanmar. They had to, just as he has to - Myanmar literally borders India, problems there are problems for India too. It's easy to sit pretty abroad and pass judgment on that. The west bungles foreign policy with countries they don't even have to have dealings with in the first place.

[@davidbowie5023]

@@lordlegendian0287 That junta allowed Northeast rebels to establish bases, and you called them friendly?

[@samuela-aegisdottir]

Thanks for providing detailed maps. This is something I missed a lot in TLDR news coverage. Aestetic minimalism is nice, but TLDR used to go too far when designing maps. I have hope that the attitude is finally changing.

[@kenw5104]

So TLDR too is closely watching Myanmar situation that has caused recent trouble near border town with Thai.

[@RealUlrichLeland]

Even if they do win, it remains to be seen what would happen to the country. Would the new government grant independence to the ethnic militias that helped them into power? Would the state be reformed into a decentralised federation? Would the militias be willing to give up their weapons, or be reorganized into a national army?

[@dx-ek4vr]

A common enemy is really good at creating unity between disparate groups, and when that goes away, there's a bajillion ways for things to go pear-shaped. But as the Arakan army's recent actions against the Rohingya proves, a united post Junta nation isn't guaranteed. Either that, or a post Junta nation can form, but would continue the genocidal policies against the Rohingya. I'm not sure what outcome could be worse.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

No it wouldn't. Ending the civil war without tearing the country to bits was Aungs' main goal after coming to power, even over prevailing on the military. That's why she didn't do much for the Ro*ingya btw - they were unpopular even with the public, and she had bigger priorities to focus on than to undermine her support for their sake. One thing both the civilian and military govt. agreed on was that the country had to be held together.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

The militia would also not be reorganized into any kind of national army. Most of them are fighting for independence, and have been for decades.

[@ryanthompson1981]

Or worse, the PLA colonizes them in the turmoil of victory.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@ryanthompson1981 It won't. They'd rather not deal with the headache that is Myanmar. No one wants to deal with that.

[@LegaliseFinland]

I am very disappointed to see you did not use the fitness instructor video

[@ehannasir8464]

they have already used it like 3 times now, let the instructor rest for once

[@TheAmericanAmerican]

Glory to Myanmar and her people 🇲🇲 Long live democracy ✊️

[@Theplanettera]

Loving democracy is good. So why then you have Joe as profile picture

[@TheAmericanAmerican]

@@Theplanettera Simple: he is the only pro-democracy candidate running for POTUS with the best odds of winning. Sure he is by no means great, but it's him OR the inbred son of Hitler and I have had my fill of that BS.

[@howardmurphy743]

@@Theplanetterademocratically elected, unlike trump who didnt win the popular vote in 2016

[@nonradicalnationalist6608]

F liberal democracy

[@howardmurphy743]

@@nonradicalnationalist6608 shut up incel

[@Peeoto]

We suould really call it the 2 brotherhood alliance. 1 of them refuse to engage and sit on the sideway watching their allies win.

[@minalusu]

What the hell...................... You know nothing aren't you . Genius, very very intelligent. You can leave now , go ..go away and do some research.

[@minalusu]

What the hell.................. You know nothing aren't you. Nice, genius, very very intelligent , you can leave now . Go ... Go away and do some research.

[@KSzkodaGames]

Well it seems the Rebels can actually win the war because the Military Juntu would face weapons shortage from Russia as Russia struggles to sell weapons abroad

[@baha3alshamari152]

They are so divided among each others and fight among themselves so they will lose eventually unless India or Thailand decided to support them in big way and forced them to work together which is not happening

[@eilliebillish]

they still got China and Thai at least if not more.

[@baha3alshamari152]

@@eilliebillish China doesn't want to get much involved unless victory is close and guaranteed They are in no position for that

[@secondavenger9775]

@@baha3alshamari152 Isn't China supporting the Wa State breakaway faction?

[@doubleblocks3446]

@@eilliebillish China isn't here to specifically support the Junta. They are supporting for their own interest and security of those interests. With the decline of the military Junta, China's support will slowly wane towards the rebel forces. We are already seeing that happening in the Northern Shan state.

[@Plexpara]

Never heard about this before. Thank you

[@minimump5248]

Tbh I want the rebals to win. Most of the rebals are ethnic groups that were treated unfairly

[@SayNoToHate28]

I am from India Just now i talked with my friend in Myanmar , he is currently in army for 2 years , He is now 19 year old ! I am here to see How bad myanmar situation is , And it is worse than i think , I just want him to be safe ! He was saying that because of this , many people has flewed to Abroad ! Now i am thinking if there is any way to make hime come to india as a refugee , Since CAA act doesn't include myanmar ! I will make a way for him to come India ! Just here to find about Current situation . If not ,i will try to reach him !

[@seijiwwx]

wish you all the best the youth here are just being used for thier pesonal gains both narcos and the government

[@alexanderromanov659]

I am from Myanmar. I seriously suggest independent medias like you guys to also cover the internet censorship by the military in Myanmar too. They blocked Facebook, Instagram and twitter at first, people used vpns and now they are starting to ban vpns too

[@Nathanwaw-bk7sr]

I live in a country that has problems but I can't imagine how terrible it must be to live in a place that is in civil war.

[@gidi3250]

From what I recall the Myanmar military abandoned most of their countryside outposts and kept an skeleton force on the bases their the vast majority hunkered down in the big town's and city's and have been bombing pretty much anything outside of these towns/city's even non combatant civilians. The majority of their military is still intact, while the rebels are splintered amongst a dozen or so groups all fighting for their own reasons and most likely will keep fighting the government even if someone else takes over.

[@SirShtrumz]

Bro. That “military situation as of may 2024” gave me palpitations. Just a whole bunch of like colors but on different sides of the fight make for a confusing map and visual. My little GIS enjoying heart hurt bro. 😅 Love this news outlet. Thanks for all the work y’all do.

[@allergy5634]

As a Brit, I think we’ve got a thing or two to learn from the people of Myanmar.

[@eavn9684]

You mean you think that the UK should collapse into a nearly 80 year long ethno-political conflict?

[@Justanormalcat7]

​@@eavn9684You just commented my wet dream.

[@VTh-f5x]

Like not colonising Burma?😂

[@KD-xd5ig]

British give the power to burmesse to kill the karen people and ur mouth still open like that?

[@mikesands4681]

Its remarkable how rarley this civil war is covered by news companies.

[@birdstwin1186]

Because its insignificant.

[@stoopidapples1596]

My Burmese friend is extremely confident that the rebels will win in a couple years. I tend to agree considering that the conscription law is extremely desperate.

[@justsomeguyonyoutube3258]

Even so,what will remain? Just another asian Syria.

[@stoopidapples1596]

@@justsomeguyonyoutube3258 Theres no guarantee that this will actually work, but supposedly there is an agreement with most of the EAOs and the NUG to form a federalist state at the conclusion of the war (complete and utter destruction of the military), so the EAOs can continue to exist with some autonomy while still under a democratic Burmese nation. It's quite possible that these negotiations will break down and we'll see prolonged fighting like in Syria, but I do think it's a more promising situation than Syria or Iraq.

[@ryansoe1829]

You must be dreaming😂😂😂

[@stoopidapples1596]

@@ryansoe1829 The rebels numbers are massively increasing by the day. Not only does the conscription law indicate that the military is extremely desperate, it will also cause the collapse even faster, because the economy will be stunted by a lack of young working people and more will want to join the rebels to avoid conscription. The question isn't whether the rebels will win, it's when they will.

[@ryansoe1829]

@@stoopidapples1596 who is going to feed them? You think feeding thousands of people daily is easy? Stop thinking that war is the same as your video games like PUBG or Call of Duty. Real war is fought with logistics. Beside the map they are usually showing on media is bullshit. They control less that 20 % of the map that they indicate on media. You may see more voices supporting on media as it is completely control by the west. But on ground everything is totally different. You may think rebels are the good guys on media but in reality they are nothing more than armed business man that do illegal stuff like drug and human trafficking. Beside a journalist from Morocco that visited KNU region through Thailand border is already killed by ur so called peaceful revolutionist. Becareful what you see on media mate. Many countries have been destroyed by the western world and the news have been cover up by their media so good luck.

[@shahimkoog]

Myanmar is united by paper

[@killickr]

It is really unfortunate what is happening in Myanmar. We met some fantastic and hospitable people there, in both cities and villages. The Myanmar people we have met in Thailand are the same.

[@DacianRider]

FREEDOM to the people !!

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Classic western idealistic oversimplification. You clearly didn't even watch the video, and even it understated just how much of a mess this all is.

[@DacianRider]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn you clearly like talking out your backside...

[@Yahoofiance45]

@@DacianRiderand millions of innocent people are suffering because of this stupid wars between junta and rebel terrorists. I don’t be happy about that. And if you really think freedom will come to people once the rebel drugs lords win the war. Then you are very naive

[@DacianRider]

@@Yahoofiance45 only orc ruzzian propagandists use the word " junta " GFY. russo-fascist !

[@chaosgamer016_5]

​@@Yahoofiance45drug lords? Are you sure you didn't canfuse Haiti and Mynamar let me ask you how wuld you feal if the military overthrow you're democraticly elected leader

[@lokensicarius9347]

Even if they "win" that "country" is screwed. They're the Yugoslavia of south Asia, too many cultural, ethnic, religious and criminal powers players with guns and competing interests.

[@ravenblood1954]

I mean, is their breakup Yugoslavia style really a bad thing? It sounds like none of the rebels have the strength to overtake the other. Makes more sense to break the country up then force them to fight it out

[@lokensicarius9347]

@@ravenblood1954 If history has taught me anything its that it won't stop them at least trying to gang up on each other. breaking up wouldn't be bad if they had a strong mediator to enforce the peace but the UN is useless and myanmar is currently situated between 2 *very* large neighbours who have it out for each other currently.

[@ravenblood1954]

@@lokensicarius9347 So it boils down to the foreign policy of India and China. You know, I kinda wish that all these nations would look at the incredible failure of colonialism and realize there is a reason those empires dissolved. But it seems like all the emerging powers of the world seem determined to repeat the mistakes of western empires, only they lack the actual experience and technical advantage that the western empires had over the locals during their age of expansion. Truly I think China and Russia are dreaming of things that will ultimately ruin them even if they did succeed

[@furinick]

One could hope for some degree of federalization would keep everyone happy

[@cloroxbleach9222]

If I'm not wrong, none of the major rebel groups want to break up Myanmar, most have been part of the Burmese state in some form before Britain's colonisation and so it is already partly part of their identity. Arakan is the only rebel group that publically stated they want sovereignty If Myanmar does breakup it might be due to political disagreements instead.

[@thawshangoak]

The military government tried to shut down ( already banned in some places ) Social platforms such as Facebook, What’s app/ youtube and others . So most of the people in myanmar must use VPN to have an accesses to use social media. The worst part is - If the military solider found VPN in someone’s phone it can lead to Jail , or get beaten till death .

[@vaidphysics]

A news channel that actually seeks to inform rather than inflame? Count me in!

[@maozedong537]

Myanmar is a country that is better broken apart than kept together

[@Blah888]

can be said about all countries with more than 1 ethnicity

[@lokensicarius9347]

Maybe but If the Balkans have taught me anything without a strong mediator to keep the peace they'll still genocide each other even if separated, plus separation makes them more vulnerable to being gobbled up by their much larger neighbours.

[@carlrodalegrado4104]

The middle kingdom long united, must divide, long divided must unite as it has always been -romance of the three kingdoms

[@easytiger6570]

That's not going to help

[@ndorobei4391]

​@@Blah888Indonesia has more than 700 ethnics and peaceful

[@luishernandezblonde]

Myanmar's problems lie long before the British arrived. The Burmese were warlike people, they were ferocious and violent, hell they created some of the largest Southeast Asian empires. However, their unsustainable system and brutality toward ethnic minorities enabled the worst later on, which the British and the Japanese maximised.

[@lordlegendian0287]

So do most nations and its just nonsense to say they just were barbarian like there were peace, agreements, Alliance and other manevours it's just that Myanmar has been gifted with an utterly mind boogling leaders and a brainless council that is destroying the country in its efforts to stop losing to democracy groups.

[@mitsunori222000]

You are referring to the majority Bamar ethnic group who have been bullying the smaller ones for centuries. Yes, this legacy of hatred was useful to the British and Japanese and will complicate matters enormously once the entirely Bamar military is put back in its box. How long the current fragile ethnic solidarity against their oppressors will endure is a major concern.

[@okasur1]

Err...the British involvement with Burma stated when the Burmese attacked British India. And as someone who lived there for four years I found that the older Burmese agreed that life was much better under the British. And it's wrong too, to say the Japanese exploited the ethnic differences as they tried to put a stop to Aung San's massacre of the Karen (then in the Irrawaddy Delta) which they did because they had adopted Christianity.

[@luishernandezblonde]

@@okasur1 I am talking about much older history, long before the British arrived.

[@madgavin7568]

A much forgotten war is the Sino-Burmese War which lasted from 1765 to 1769. Long story short, the Burmese humiliated the Chinese.

[@diomuda7903]

People mostly ignored the fact that the Japanese invasion of Burma in 1942 triggered the violence in Burma. The country was already fragile when a system of brutal rule was established by the British, but it exploded by the Japanese when Japan armed radical Bamar and Arakanese nationalists to slaughter Christian and Muslim minorities backed by the British. Both the Japanese and British did nothing to address it and Britain's departure allowed this unsolved. Even if this war ended with one winner, there is still unlikely to have peace.

[@daltongalloway]

Sounds more like shifting around blame instead of actually trying to solve the crisis 😂

[@rilrahoneybee9621]

Thank you for information!

[@ashleyberkowitz8772]

The Myanmar conflict really scares me. The military's getting desperate and committing atrocities, but the ethnic militias are also committing atrocities. The situation is absolutely horrible and it's hard to say if democracy and peace can be returned to the region

[@napoleonfeanor]

Can anybody tell me why they couped? As far as I remember, they still had huge influence in the democratic era.

[@lordlegendian0287]

The recent election results had the NLD Aung San Suu Kyi wining landslide and their own backed parties heavy losses hence they feared losing their influence

[@farhanatashiga3721]

Yeah they do but their puppet political parties were getting increasingly driven away by the purely democratic ones, and they did not like that one bit and so fabricated claims of electoral fraud as justification to take over.

[@Toonrick12]

Sure, but their influence was decreasing. I assume they launched the coup when they did, while the rest of the world was busy fighting Covid.

[@irvingnavarro1394]

China wants it under its influence so they talked the army into abandoning democracy

[@redfalconsmdx]

The military being military. Them and their families are power hungry and greedy. They want the country to be "democratic" as long as they are still in charge behind the scenes so that their sons and daughters conglomerates profits and are the top of the country. Fyi, the military due to 2010 constitution (if I recall correctly) states that 25% of seats in parliament are given to military. No matter what the election outcome so they have the veto power for any laws that may arise. Then there's the other "source" that local news have been reporting. Allegedly, the bastard of a commander in chief "Min Aung Hlaing" was in talks with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (democratic party leader and prime minister) a few months prior to election and post election apparently asking for the NLD to nominate him as president. It was his personal ambition apparently. But Aung San Suu Kyi apparently replied with "go ask the people not me, and see if they are willing to let you be the president". And apparently that was the straw and they accuse NLD of electoral fraud with no evidence. And then welp... The rest is history now. We may never know the actual ACTUAL reason but from these rumors and news and whatevers. We can probably infer what happened. And for the record, yes I am Burmese and I am really hoping the right side of history will prevail in a year or two. It's getting really bad.

[@TuckMengSoo-dd6gd]

Very interesting analysis. Not so good for the people of Myanmar who seem to be facing war and instability for awhile yet.

[@esense9602]

First of all, rebels is not united. They have a different agendas. The reason why they're fighting because they hate Tatmadaw. The only advantage the military junta has is their forces is organize than the rebels.

[@digitalatom6433]

As stated, even if the military is defeated, what unified the rebels will disappear, and they'll end up fighting one another. But at the same time, the opposite would be an equally bad situation. I can't blame people for packing their bags and going anywhere but home.

[@RhombusOfTheJ]

I can see that they win, and the separatists get autonomy or their own state

[@MichaelBattle-ri6ei]

The Army headed by min Aung Hlaing must be wiped out totally.

[@skullrevenant9573]

As a burmese,not with the current state.EAOs are too divided and some just want to do their own thing.Even NUG itself has some corrupt officials stealing donation moneys.The only thing pushing the PDF to success on the field currently is motivation

[@rilrahoneybee9621]

Really?

[@alex_zetsu]

I think the pro-democracy forces will just end up being used by separatist forces. Military rule might not be ideal. But if opposing it results in the country being divided, it just isn't worth it.

[@explosivereactionstv7414]

I think they can and will do so and here's a reason why I believe they can do it. I believe the rebels can and will win the civil war because regardless of the reasons they fight, they have something to fight for whether they're the People's Defense Force or the Karen Liberation Army among other rebel groups. The government forces do not really have that much to fight for and they aren't as motivated as the rebel groups are.

[@Perrirodan1]

... The government fight for the country to stay united? Maybe that's big enough of a motivation?

[@michaelk4896]

A very naive assessment.

[@lordlegendian0287]

​@@Perrirodan1yea the same government which carpets bombs the heck out of any suspected rebel holdouts? Recent news the "government" has meanwhile forbade business from using dollar for trade or even payment and asked them to find ways to barter trade yea 21st century "barter trading".

[@mappingshaman5280]

That's the most Liberal wallop I have seen in a while. The government forces have their own power to fight for considering its a military junta. Also militaries tend to be nationalistic which will mean that they'll want to keep fighting to make sure the unity of myanmar remains and it is not divided between all the ethnic groups. Also having something to fight for doesn't make you immune to planes, missiles, tanks etc. Hell we see this in gaza. What do hamas have to fight for? A free and independent Palestine. What do the IDF have to fight for? Keeping the status quo? Annexing a tiny strip of land smaller than some cities in the world? Yet we both know which side is winning.

[@meteorknight999]

​@@mappingshaman5280while I agree with you the military haha myanmars own military has given up on myanmar and there are rebels in military taking over battalion defect with base and land they on

[@PinPin-cb2ng]

လူသတ်စစ်တပ်ကြောင့်ပြည်သူပြည်သားများသေကြေပျက်စီးနေရပါတယ်ကျေးရွာအများအပြားမီးလောင်တိုက်သွင်းအစုလိုက်သတ်ဖြတ်ခြင်းလဲခံနေရပါတယ်အကြောင်းမဲ့ဖမ်းဆီးခြင်းသတ်ဖြတ်ခံရခြင်းအတင်းစစ်မှု့ထမ်းဆောင်ခိုင်းစေခြင်းအစရှိုတဲ့ယုတ်မာမှုတွေကိုမြန်မာ့တပ်မတော်မှကျူးလွန်နေပါသဖြင့်အမှန်တရားကိုလူအမျာသိစေလိုပါသည်။

[@alexcortez3007]

Even without outside help, they’re taking territories. Imagine if ASEAN or the Western powers help. The Junta’s days are numbered.

[@pantherhmtd2683]

Based and accurate report sir. You are right about some higher ups in junta military wanting to replace Min Aung Hlaing(current leading general of the military) because of his ineffective methods and uselessness in not just military operations but also others fields of country such as economy and inter relationship. But the truth is Min Aung Hlaing is not only one who is useless at handling things, and the whole active council right now is hopeless.

[@Ben-rz9cf]

We support the independence of Myanmar from authoritarian junta rule and a fair and representative democracy is clearly the only way to balance the varying interests of so many groups and ensure everyone gets a seat at the table.

[@relaxedleisure4766]

“The Rebels” are all opposed to one another, the civil war is like between 12 different factions.

[@aaryanqureshi5326]

Rohingya😢 persecuted by army and rebels😢

[@adrianrodgon3485]

I wonder why....🤔

[@madcatz3702]

Totally had it coming lol

[@Mahapadmadipatu]

Like arab invasion of bryzantine and sassafras

[@BeorEviols]

Care to explain why they have it coming? Not trying to doubt what you're saying, I just genuinely want to know more because I know so little about them

[@gtr5860]

Rohingya originally from Bangladesh

[@adamc3442]

Good to see someone atill talks about this coup

[@piesezpetersburga7254]

So it all comes down to how we interpret victory. Can the rebels be defeated by the army? Possible. Will peace then be achieved? I don't think so. I doubt that ethnic groups that set out to overthrow a government they don't like would simply replace it with another one that, in their opinion, is equally bad. As you said, these rebellions have been going on not since the military coup, but since regaining independence. We can sooner expect Yugoslavia 2.0 rather that everyone reaching an agreement.

[@meteorknight999]

The surrounding countries will come and make land bordering them their proxies so no its not yugoslav at all

[@thealienwatcher540]

What were Myanmar's Military Forces thinking. People have tasted Freedom and guess what they weren't just going to sit down and let a dictatorial regime take over and tell them how to live their lives

[@redpanda3339]

You know, recently I've heard rumors some people don't want either side to win. Some people wanted the conflict to keep going because it profits them. Apparently both sides are struggling to get supplies and armaments, thus other parties step in to establish business. But it was just rumor spreading through refugees.

[@lordlegendian0287]

Your right on point both are suffering attrition type of warfare the Junta is running out of manpower and busy destroying any semblance of private businesses for it's war machine while the resistance are gaining territory at the cost of carpet bombings by regime although they do gain manpower they lack the equipment and quality.

[@lordlegendian0287]

Except for the established old ethnic minority armies who just used the conflict to consolidate and expand the newly bloomed pro democracy groups lack equipment and quality tho they are able to use drone warfare efficiently and dominate the non urban areas.

[@deidresable]

Both junta nd the rebel is not the good guy

[@lordlegendian0287]

@@deidresable yea so the USA is the good guy here?

[@deidresable]

@@lordlegendian0287 Idk but they are funding the rebel through india

[@tauhongngonyen3522]

All ethnic groups should fight unitedly to defeat Junta

[@meilinchan7314]

Myanmar is proof that absolute power and autocracy are not guarantees for peace, order and stability.

[@muayboran6111]

Without the support of their people, the government has little control. As with Romania, the people decides at the end of the day or there will be conflict. If the government kills them all, who are they a leader of?

[@dontforgetyouraccount3181]

Under junta goverment economic has downgreaded and 40 % inflation

[@eleutheriossideras]

Karen National Union...they wanna speak to the Manager

[@Thorite_Gem]

The Myanagar

[@doubleblocks3446]

@@Thorite_Gem 😂😂😂

[@Mr.Nichan]

2:00 There are a lot of similar colors on this map. They're hard to tell apart.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

No one is going to 'win' from this. Foreigners were quick to condemn Aung for not championing the Rohingya, without ever understanding the position she was in. Most of the population *ated them, so it would only have been political unaliving for her to do so. Ultimately she had bigger issues to worry about - she was fighting to keep the country together in the first place. And the end result if the junta are toppled is going to be even worse - civil war.

[@its_me_v13]

Myanmar rebel's victories are now at the peak. For 60 years, anti-military campaigns could not come this far. Now, rebels have already captured many cities and trade ports. Military has lost 30% of their man-power last year. So they're forcibly conscripting young people into their army. A couple of months ago, a high ranking military official attempted coup against military junta and that attempted coup ended with arrests of several important military officers. This shows military is in panic state and they're beginning to get disoriented. On the rebel's side, the issue is that each group of rebels have very different goals. Although they common enemy (junta) now, the future after is quite uncertain.

[@Campaigner82]

This conflict teaches me that nations need to be homogeneous to be successful.

[@birdstwin1186]

This has been known for thousands of years.

[@Justanormalcat7]

Have you ever heard of malaysia,Morocco,Indonesia and india,And also singapore.These are exampels of multi-ethnic states that've done well for themselves.

[@daltongalloway]

Not even true 😂. Just look at the United States

[@Justanormalcat7]

​@@daltongallowaythere are other examples of sucessful multi ethnic state's that you could've used,Just saying.

[@lden15l87]

The countries you mentioned aren't very well known for being stable

[@khammuanthang]

Thank you TLDR NEWS GLOBAL 🙏

[@chavezchavo]

Right now all these groups have a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". While I'm looking forward for the government junta to be defeated (which is still uncertain), what next when the groups finally don't have a common enemy? Will it get worse off? Hopefully the people of Myanmar can be at peace as a country.

[@leachblah6313]

If they want separate country of their own, we are willing to give them. I'm currently theorizing that NUG would form a group of nations(after giving them separate countries) just like ASEAN rather than trying to regroup everyone under one nation. The senseless bloodshed should be stopped and will be stopped. Even if ethnic group are to fight against each other, most wouldn't. They have been wanting to retire for many years.

[@NahMyTurn]

​@@leachblah6313 so, basically the HRE but Myanmar, yea, I can see that

[@RedXlV]

There is no such thing as worse off than the current situation.

[@HdjdjdDhhdj-b8r]

It’s depending on how other countries help Myanmar people freedom.

[@hughjass1044]

"Could Myanmar's Rebels Actually Win?" Which rebels? There's like a million different kinds. And at this point, what difference would it make anyway? Ya think there's gonna be peace with that dog's breakfast of a country? Sheesh; what a mess!

[@morwickchesterham3875]

A dog's breakfast will be the new reality in Britain also... with the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis carving up parts of England... the way they are spreading like wildfire on welfare... I'd give it another 50 years.

[@asiangaming8409]

I love the military and all but never should a government be controlled by the military, military and politics do not work together.

[@arvidgreat]

If they win and manage to become a democracy again that would be a HUGE WIN for democracy!

[@DacianRider]

democracy isn't absolute, ruzzbot !

[@testingmysoup5678]

Democracy doesn't work in states like these, the USA will usurp the democracy and turn it into a military base and more terrorism will kick off. An authoritarian may be able to manage it if it resists coup attempts and brings stability with a good relationship with china and a good economy. Democracy has basically failed everywhere. Europe has the EU which isn't democratic and the USA has legalized corruption for over 50 years. Democracy isn't an inherently good thing and it's very warlike, why idolize it

[@lordlegendian0287]

​@@DacianRiderNor is blind NK style authoritarianism

[@DacianRider]

@@lordlegendian0287 yes, it is. you are a troll / bot. go away with your nonsense propaganda ! you're either payed to type such lunacy or simply insane and mentally defective....

[@curzethemall]

Gross

[@Eduthedude]

This seems like it may be even worse when it’s over.

[@marcelo55869]

Any word on US participation on agitating the region? CIA sponsored groups? no words? convenient...

[@PhilSophia-ox7ep]

ah, yes, great way of discrediting a rebellion against a military junta. You're very moral.

[@marcelo55869]

@@PhilSophia-ox7ep Have you seem they are trying to do in Thailand and Georgia and many others? They are trying to politically capture the government and get sympathizers into power... just like they did in Ukraine... then they use the country as cannonfodder to pressure rivals... Myanmar is yet another "to be" unsinkable carrier base on China border... There is a plethora of NGO funded by CIA to influence foreign politics an western media turns a blind eye to it all.

[@PhilSophia-ox7ep]

@@marcelo55869 The military junta's overturning of democracy, and the rebellion against that junta, was in no way determined by the actions of the CIA. Do you have evidence otherwise.

[@marcelo55869]

@@PhilSophia-ox7ep kzbin.info/www/bejne/rJTcnKpubMiVfas

[@marcelo55869]

​@@PhilSophia-ox7epanother one kzbin.info/www/bejne/j2PQiXiFodODrs0si=iQwW-rCG0ssZyY_F

[@Catto-d2y]

The civil war will not end until Myanmar dose not exist Edit: I am from Myanmar

[@carstengrooten3686]

The map you used is kinda shit. There are areas on it with colours that are not present in the legend and the other way around.

[@harrisafiari6938]

Soon, Myanmar will be the democracy country, optimistic.

[@madoxxxx06]

The West obsession with Gaza is not due to anything exceptional happening, very low casualties but high media coverage, its just because Israel is involved.

[@theoaksvibechannel722]

Interesting, want more news from Myanmar from you.

[@gantulgaganhuyag717]

They are not rebelling. These people are freedom fighters! rebels do rebel against even progressive governments. but these people, they are fighting for their rights, their dignity and freedom from tyrannical government

[@slovakiaballif24]

20 bucks says that if the rebels win, the differing factions will turn on each other almost immediately

[@radilmahbub4690]

slight correction at 3:15, the word Rakhine is spelt like (ra-kha-ain). But otherwise an excellent and unbiased video

[@Gmoro00]

Educate yourself and raise awareness about Myanmar! 🇲🇲🇲🇲🇪🇺❤️

[@marhaenthemchannelreupload1344]

EU suck please dont intervene !!!

[@martincarsley5307]

Thanks!

[@py8554]

It’s entirely possible that the rebels will win if the military junta loses the favour of the Chinese government, and this seems to be happening.

[@ravenblood1954]

Losing favor? Isn’t one of the larger rebels groups outright sponsored by the CCP? We are long past the bridge of the Chinese withdrawing support, they are sponsoring the overthrow of the government at this point xD

[@nicholasavasthi9879]

There’s some evidence that that’s already happened. Operation 1027 was on the Chinese border and immediately afterwards the rebels busted a slave ring holding many Chinese citizens captive. The Chinese government has in the past attempted to get the military regime to go after these sorts of operations, but with limited success. This coupled with the specific weapons some of the rebels were carrying requiring 3d printing to manufacture suggests that the CCP have decided that the rebels may make better allies.

[@SomeoneFromBeijing]

Both sides were begging for Beijing’s help. Cyber fraud was a huge issue in China, and Chinese-speaking gangs were running those operations in Myanmar. Both the military junta and the rebels were hunting down those people to hand them to China to gain favours. My sense is that Beijing slightly favours the rebels now.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Lose to who? And to become what? You're severely underestimating just how much of a mess this all is, and always has been. This isn't some heroic idealistic fight between democrats and autocrats. There are scores of armed groups.

[@ravenblood1954]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn Conflicts are rarely black and white. Certainly most of the rebels are a kinder alternative to the Junta, all things considered

[@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket]

I'm not overly optimistic about their future due to being in China's back yard but I sure do hope things work out for the people of Myanmar and the rebels fighting for their rights.

[@Sudupe16]

Even within the last week the Junta has committed massacres against civilians. A great source for following the conflict in Myanmar is The Irrawaddy.

[@vegyi5459]

I would like to ask the international community to take action against the coup military group that does not value the lives of the people.

[@kitanahasw7830]

" Nah I'd win" : Some random 4ft dictitor

[@KcoolCkat]

Lmfao 🚶

[@helicalactual]

Stasis is calculable now. Rule of stasis works, rule of law doesn't really. If someone does something that is either too orderly or too disorderly you're able to calculate the effect on the entire entangled system. It's no longer subjective It's calculable

[@El_Presidente_5337]

They're not rebels if they're fighting to restore their democratic government. They're freedom fighters.

[@yahyazekeriyya2560]

Not when that "democratic government" committed a genocide against the native Rakhine Muslims.

[@PhilSophia-ox7ep]

​@@yahyazekeriyya2560....which is exactly what the military junta did as well. There goes your objection.

[@yahyazekeriyya2560]

@@PhilSophia-ox7ep I'm not pro military junta AT ALL. My objection stands, a "democratic government" that commits a genocide on a native ethnic group is not democratic, nor are they freedom fighters. Unlike you, I don't see the world in black and white.

[@PhilSophia-ox7ep]

@@yahyazekeriyya2560 You don't have to see it in black and white to support the rebels. It's black and white thinking which places the rebels on the same footing as the junta.

[@TonyA-ex1sj]

​@@PhilSophia-ox7epthe military junta for you is a pro democratic group jajajaja

[@moeenuddin6467]

Yep, let's just ignore the Rhongiyan genocide.

[@paperpenpencilboxruler]

What happens when PDF wakes up an choose violence instead of being a portable document format. 😂

[@ThawZin-t1v]

100 Percent Yes and We are stand with Myanmar and We are Myanmar

[@spadegaming6348]

Wow I'm early.