Travers 2024 Picks: Thorpedo Anna, Sierra Leone, Dornoch, Fierceness, Corporate Power, Honor Marie

[@petrotmyrcz308]

Good video. I like your picks and analysis. I just may break from my usual plays and put it all on Sierra Leone to win. Good luck everyone. enjoy the races.

[@JarrodHorak]

Sierra Leone always runs his closing race and it should be no different on Saturday. Chad Brown appears to have him primed for a big effort, and Prat can seemingly do no wrong at Saratoga this summer.

[@joshuamiller9779]

You’re right . With dornoch and Thorpedo battling it out wire to wire, this is the perfect race for a strong closer like Sierra Leone

[@JarrodHorak]

I does look that way on paper. Sierra Leone might blow past the whole field this time.

[@cc-de1pv]

But he never get there!😊

[@JarrodHorak]

@@cc-de1pv I am confident that he will get there and that is fine if you do not think so. Good luck with your Travers wagers.

[@CharlesTurk-c9x]

Thank you sir I respect your professional analysis. Will be interesting to see what your betting strategy is here.

[@JarrodHorak]

I will be posting my Travers article with wagering strategies this week. I will come back here and add the link to my article.

[@CharlesTurk-c9x]

@@JarrodHorak thank you Jared you're a classy man. You know I live here in downtown Las Vegas and there's everything in the world to bed on. Seems like horse racing is the hardest. But somehow the most rewarding.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@CharlesTurk-c9x I always enjoyed my trips to Vegas. Used to rack up points betting the ponies on my Station and Coast casino cards back in the day. Gotta get back out there in the near future.

[@JarrodHorak]

Travers article link - todaysracingdigest.com/news/travers-stakes-2024-analysis-wagers/

[@LABoyko]

Very surprised Mr. Horak has Dornoch, Fierceness finishing outside the top four. Positioning into the clubhouse turn is critical. First call needs to be under 47 for Sierra Leone to have any chance. Pace meltdown is very possible.

[@JarrodHorak]

I had to take a stand somewhere and felt Dornoch and Fierceness were the two most vulnerable favorites based on the projected race shape and other factors. Dornoch had to fight very hard to win back-to-back Grade 1's in the Belmont and Haskell, and those efforts had to take something out of him. Plus, Sierra Leone already beat him in 2 of 3 races this year. As for Fierceness, he never runs two alike and is an unknown commodity at a mile and a quarter. Mindframe was supposed to represent these connections in the Travers, but when he was injured, they called an audible and went with Fierceness. Sierra Leone runs his closing race every time regardless of race shape, track condition, and track bias. He can run all day and should get honest fractions to chase.

[@willmorrisusa]

So Dornoch might not have enough gas in the Tank ?

[@joepolander4819]

Hi Jarrod - I see your logic for picking SL first. I will use SL, Dornoch and TA in my Pick5. I like TA to pull the upset. She is tactical and her speed figures are improving. I will play a $10 TRI 1/2,7/2,7.

[@JarrodHorak]

Thanks for sharing your Travers thoughts and wagers. Good luck on Saturday!

[@willmorrisusa]

So Fierceness is 2 for 2 at Saratoga. Travers is at Saratoga..... 🤔

[@italianwaterice9594]

@@willmorrisusa lol... Multilple grade 1 winners and 2nd here... doesnt matter where they run

[@KevinOtis-yj8fh]

Pick one horse who,s gonna win?

[@JarrodHorak]

I picked Sierra Leone. Who do you like in the Travers?

[@KevinOtis-yj8fh]

I think Fierceness beat Sierra leone easy last time out John was easy

[@KevinOtis-yj8fh]

I don't really like the race

[@JarrodHorak]

@@KevinOtis-yj8fh I am sure you will having fun watching the race. Looks like a competitive renewal of the Travers.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@KevinOtis-yj8fh Fierceness had every advantage from a tactical standpoint and the race flow was in his favor in the Jim Dandy at a mile and an eighth. If the pace is honest, Sierra Leone could easily turn the tables at 1 1/4 miles. Should be a good race.

[@EasyGoer-e3z]

The Other Top 3 Contenders Were Ridden Hard to Get Those Final Times/Figures...Thorpedo Anna Been Having it Easy Strutting Through Stretch Eased up With Final Times/Numbers That are Not Far Behind The Males...Point is She Can Probably Run Faster if Need be...Having Said That i Still Have No Idea How She Will Perform

[@JarrodHorak]

Thorpedo Anna gets the acid test in the Travers. We will find out how good she is on Saturday.

[@willmorrisusa]

Think it's between Fierceness ( if he can get the distance ) , Dornoch & Sierra Leone ! Dornoch really fought down the stretch in his last vs. Mindframe. Impressive !

[@JarrodHorak]

Dornoch is a fighter and that is an admirable trait. He won't give up without a fight. The four favorites in this race all have the credentials to win and I am really looking forward to this contest.

[@omegatheoriginal]

Don't forget, the Belmont was also 1 1/4 miles.

[@JarrodHorak]

The 1 1/4 Belmont Stakes was run over a speed favoring oval this year and the early-pressing types had the race flow in their favor. If the track plays that way again and the flow is the same, the early runners will have the edge. If the pace is honest and the track is playing fair, we may see a much different result in the Travers.

[@italianwaterice9594]

i agree w your pick,,, absolutely a 2 horse race

[@JarrodHorak]

Sierra Leone is the one to beat if this race plays out the way it looks on paper.

[@italianwaterice9594]

@@JarrodHorak people dont realize Batten Down pushed him to the rail.. causing him to go off his lead leg and almost stop.. Prat wont let that happen,, hes much the best imo

[@JarrodHorak]

@@italianwaterice9594 You are right, and Johnny V rode a smart race aboard Fierceness and took away the outside lane and that forced Prat to go inside. I am expecting Prat to be ready for anything and ride with confidence.

[@willmorrisusa]

I'm going with Fierceness ! ! 2 for 2 at Saratoga & that every other race Streak has been Crazy ! 😂

[@malathaat74]

I respect your channel and opinion so not being hateful; just think everyone not just you getting too cute

[@willmorrisusa]

Like that Fierceness is on the outside post & he only racing 6 other horses ! This only his 2nd race since the Kentucky Derby, so he should be fresh !

[@bradstewart9205]

I agree on the winner but I’m going honor Marie as a second with dornoch third

[@JarrodHorak]

I would like to see Honor Marie put it all together with blinkers on. He has had some bad luck in his recent races and has shows flashes of brilliance. There is probably more in the tank and the 1 1/4 miles distance should suit him.

[@paulv7554]

Well, I'm going with Sierra Leone once again. As you said, he is the most trustworthy. I'm going to put Thorpedo Anna as my 2nd choice.

[@JarrodHorak]

It is time for Sierra Leone to step up and get back on the winning track. Everything seems to be in his favor this time and I am hoping that we see a very big effort.

[@paulv7554]

@@JarrodHorak I'm still rooting for Sierra, as disappointed as I was the past two races. The Derby was a real shame. A mere head bob away from the win. My gut feeling is we'll get a pace similar to what we were expecting in the Jim Dandy.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@paulv7554 I still think he is the best 3-year-old. He has had legit excuses recently. Lugging in cost him the win in the Derby, and the track was speed favoring and the race flow was against him in the Belmont. He was the only closer making up any ground in the Belmont, and ditto the Jim Dandy, another race that did not set up for a closer. The Travers sure seems to have pace to chase and he appears to be sitting on a top effort.

[@paulv7554]

@@JarrodHorak I also believe he is the best 3 year old. I think Thorpedo Anna is going to dispatch the rest of the males, and Sierra runs her down.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@paulv7554 That is a very plausible scenario.

[@pedronegron2274]

Me Deven $160 Dolla en la track Indiana Down pues me robaron $160.00 y ciempre dise gue estan penddy gue pasa

[@pedronegron2274]

Fock

[@CharlesTurk-c9x]

After hearing your analysis I'm going to have to come off fierceness. In the back of my mind I can't help but think in the Jim dandy Sierra Leone was taking huge strides. Wilderness shortened up his.. it feels like it's Sierra Leone's to lose click your second choice too

[@JarrodHorak]

Fierceness is a very talented horse but he is inconsistent, and I am just not sure how he will handle a mile and a quarter race with an honest pace. Sierra Leone can run all day and the Travers race flow might be to his liking.

[@malathaat74]

This is just silly; Dornoch is clearly best 3 year old; Thorpedo is great story but Dornoch is single for me. And get over drunk driving Sierra Leone.

[@JarrodHorak]

Dornoch was best in the Belmont and Haskell, but I have my doubts that he can do it again after such two grueling efforts. Sierra Leone finished in front of Dornoch in 2 of 3 races this year and I am expecting him to beat Dornoch and the others on Saturday. Good luck singling Dornoch in the Travers. I am sure he will give you a run for your money and won't give up without a fight.

[@italianwaterice9594]

Fierceness just loves Saratoga i guess.... its almost impossible to bet him in these races lol

[@JarrodHorak]

Fierceness got great tactical trips through moderate fractions from advantageous outer posts in the Jim Dandy and Travers. He is a fast and talented horse, and he backed up wins for the first time in his career. You are right that he loves the Spa.

[@willmorrisusa]

If it was 1 & 3/8 mile or more.... I wouldn't pick Fierceness , but I think he can pry get the Mile & 1/4 here at Saratoga ! Should be interesting in the stretch run !

[@paulv7554]

I had Sierra Leone pegged as a special horse that didn't need a hot pace in order to win. Seems like everything absolutely has to go his way in terms of pace. He is a very consistent and reliable horse but not for the win. That is my disappointment in him. These last several races it's been the same story. Moderate fractions and he can't close the deal. I just thought he was better than that. He is a good closer but not a super horse that's for sure.

[@JarrodHorak]

The only closer that I have ever seen since I have been following racing that did not need a hot pace to win every race was Zenyatta. Those horses only come along once in a blue moon. Sierra Leone is very good and right at the top of a wide open division. He is not a super horse and I never thought he was. None of the 3-year-olds are super horses at this stage. I did think he was the best 3-year-old out there and I still think he is right with the best sophomores but definitely not head and shoulders above. The speed ratings for the 3-year-olds are not spectacular but they are getting faster as the year progresses just like they should. When you have multiple, classy, early-pressing types and they go at a moderate pace, there is no way that all of them will come back to a closer no matter how good that closer is, unless they are in Zenyatta's league. Sierra Leone is fine and by far the most consistent 3-year-old male in the country. He continues to get faster and has put all of his bad habits behind him. Just like all talented closers, he needs a lively pace to run at and the speed horses to soften each other up. That did not happen in his last three starts but it did happen in the Derby, and he was immature in the spring and lugged in and blew that golden opportunity. I would not be surprised if he won a big Grade 1 down the road under the right circumstances, but I would definitely want a better price to take that gamble. He was overbet in the Travers. I thought he might offer a bit more value but he took most of the action due to his perceived race flow advantage that never materialized.

[@paulv7554]

@@JarrodHorak I wasn't following horse racing when Zenyatta was running. I've watched all her races on replay and it was remarkable how she closed every race regardless of pace. Do you remember how you played the 2010 Breeders Cup? I saw the Mike Smith interview after the race and he blamed himself. He was pretty busted up.

[@JarrodHorak]

@@paulv7554 I remember singling Zenyatta in Pick 3, Pick 4, etc, and I had Blame underneath. I was Track Handicapper at Louisiana Downs in 2009 and Blame was my top pick in the Super Derby that year, so I always liked him but did not think he could beat Zenyatta in the BC. He really got a great trip in the BC and Zenyatta should have won that race.

[@user-wm7mp2fl1p]

Sierra Leone needs rest too much seconditis Dornoch and Fierceness are tired horses the race is all Thorpedo Anna a fresh set of legs by a filly with plenty ability end of story

[@JarrodHorak]

The trainer and his or her team are the only ones that know if their horses need a rest or not. Thorpedo Anna is one of four logical win contenders and we will find out how good she is on Saturday.

[@andrewcarpenter687]

Its the 155th Travers, a filly hasnt won since 1915...we have a woman running for president and TP shows up in the Travers...ummm...since its all scripted by the powers at be and antonoccie won last year as a woman on secretariats anniversary and Krones belmont...ThorPEDO Annas name bugs me for obvious reasons...she has a 551 and its the 155th...jockeys do what they are told to do like any scripted athlete...its all one big fraternity...10 panels and its year 24 and you chose 2,4....lets see the track bias and go from there...

[@JarrodHorak]

It would be a great story if Thorpedo Anna was able to get the job done vs. the boys. She has a world of talent and should be in the thick of things from the outset.

[@andrewcarpenter687]

@@JarrodHorak look for a potential scratch before the race of 1 of the colts...it's a big narrative and the election is around the corner...definately 10 panels makes a difference verses 9....