Tropics Update: Development Likely Near The Greater Antilles! When Should You Prepare?

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Disclaimer: The following information provided in this video is primarily from official weather agencies, websites, and modeling. Any information not from these official sources are my own conjectures and should be taken with a grain of salt. I am not responsible for anything you do with the contents of this video. Thank you and enjoy!
Also, LISTEN TO LOCAL OFFICIALS, They know better than I do about preparations!
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[@socrates2706]

I assume if we have a parade of Cat 5s compressed in a 4 week period, then this will lower water heat content and also result in interactions which will affect paths. I’m also thinking that Cat 5 storms that form in the Atlantic may have difficulty maintaining their strength as they move east based on the longevity of winds that powerful.

[@HaileyJohn12]

Arcadia really doesn't need another Major Monstrosity. We can't afford it

[@frankpellegrino487]

And I expect to see a yellow cone posted by the NHC for this area within the next 3-4 days if the Euro continues to be consistent with this system!

[@frankpellegrino487]

Euro ensembles have a 50% chance of development today around August 3rd, GFS is out to lunch on this one!

[@LuisEspinosa-oq8yk]

Hello. My name. Luis. Vivo. República. Dominicana. Saludos. Pas. Predictor

[@roxannehudson7410]

Off the coast of Louisiana is 31

[@matthenagan8189]

Why is everyone always a critic, and looking for the slightest things to point out and get upset about? Point being, regardless of his headline on the video, I’m pretty sure that you know and I know, hell anyone who that’s been paying half ass attention should know that by late July to early August that there will be more than a fair share of areas to highlight and discuss.

[@TRGTornado]

Title says, "Development Likely" while the NHC has not highlighted any AIO and the CPC has a near 20% chance. Other main models like the GFS have not even picked up on any tropical chances. Slightly misleading there dude.

[@PatsPathPredictor]

Look at the Euro, and look at the conditions present.

[@TRGTornado]

@@PatsPathPredictor I have, it shows a tropical wave and that is about it. Maybe it can do something in the Gulf but It looks highly unlikely at this point. Relying off of just one model no matter what model is not the best Idea as I am sure you know. we are about a week out from anything potentially being an issue and 2 weeks out from the Gulf. I just think it's too early to be saying development likely.

[@PatsPathPredictor]

I’d argue that considering the uptrend, it’s more likely now than 24 hours ago. Also, shear and dry air will be decreasing ahead of this wave, and the vorticity forecasted is enough to support development. That’s just me, so take it as you will.

[@marciablackman2383]

Because NHC doesn't have up any thing doesn't mean he is misleading. I have seen on many occasions things have been mentioned long before when NHC did.

[@JohnWalton-md5rq]

Prepare for what?

[@InsideCorners]

Good job Pat and thanks for keeping us updated and giving us the visual maps while talking about the tropical discussion. You save a lot of us time who have busy lives. You're appreciated my guy 🙏🧿

[@great-t-crazydogworld2893]

The other models are dead sleeping on drugs thats why they dont show anything.

[@alexeatonexploresamerica5511]

I know for a fact the first week of August Florida is going to be getting destroyed

[@HaileyJohn12]

STHU! Please don't say nothing like that. I'm scared already. And I don't need you to make worse case scenarios.