Trump and Harris neck and neck ahead of their first presidential debate | DW News

Tuesday night's TV debate will be the first-ever face-to-face meeting between Vice-President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. At the moment, it's the only scheduled debate that both campaigns have agreed to. With the latest polls showing that the two candidates are neck-and-neck contest, there's a lot at stake. Since many pundits are predicting that November's result will be decided by small numbers of voters in half a dozen key battleground states, swaying those viewers could prove decisive.
Allan Lichtman, Distinguished Professor of History at American University, is the author of the book "Predicting the Next President" and has correctly predicted 9 out of the 10 elections going back to 1984. He gives his assessment of the upcoming elections.
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#Trump #Harris #presidentialdebate2024

[@teresapaskell5459]

Professor Lichtman knows what he is talking about 👍

[@TimMountjoy-zy2fd]

I like this guy - he sticks to his system and tells people the other questions are a waste of time. ie Polls, Policy, Personality which everyone else thinks matter he just dismisses.

[@diazvirdani1059]

*USA🇺🇲 still occupied Samoa, Puerto Rico, Guam, Mariana, Virgin, Baker, Howland, Jarvis, Johnston, Kingman, Midway, Wake, Navassa, Palmyra.* end occupation & Keep peace.

[@windsong3wong828]

Prosecutor V Felon. I am rooting for the law.

[@GabrielBTzar]

czar Vs political prisoner.

[@acbgames1766]

Should have asked what's the difference 2016 vs 2024, and what's the difference Biden to Harris in the past few months.

[@paulallen7334]

Calling RINOs and Open Democrats is crazy

[@tajmajal4197]

As if Trump were a genius!!

[@tonymnQuan]

The DW interviewer just couldn't grasp Lichtman's approach. Stuck in conventional tropes. The media generally lacks subtlety.

[@hape3862]

The poor Prof. has given so many interviews lately with hasty, barely interested, sensationalist American news presenters that he could hardly adapt to the thorough and unexcited friendly German presenter, hehe. Phil Gayle is such an asset to DW.

[@marisabenson1222]

It was an amusing combination

[@Isotempo]

The man was defending his book, I wasn’t trying to purchase a copy

[@MikesLeague]

So what kind of asset are you then?

[@TheTwangKings]

The prof. makes perfect sense. Media is mostly sensationalist and focuses on candidates, but he focuses on data.

[@filipjovanovic]

Kamala ❤

[@eddastrohmayer251]

Kamala 🤡

[@helenpauls1496]

The next President.

[@sihletngcobo]

An endorsement from the Chaney's tells the whole story about the candidacy of Kamala

[@stevekouz7785]

Good Reportage...

[@Eddy12383]

I don’t think he likes Nate Sliver

[@amirmohammadnoormohammad5590]

Remember Afghanistan 🇦🇫 please 🇦🇫.

[@TheTwangKings]

Neck in neck? I guess DW didn't see the latest polls 😊 Harris is ahead in many states, and nation-wide. Polls aside, the prof. is 100% right.🧑‍🎓

[@3x157]

I pray to God that Trump never sets foot in Government again. We need to take back the Republican party.

[@sihletngcobo]

Which God?

[@3x157]

@@sihletngcobo The American God and his son Jesus.

[@WarkoSanchez]

Very interesting

[@jeanlafleur3960]

He said that Biden would be reelected@

[@johnvu7570]

yeap Haris is on the same team.

[@TimMountjoy-zy2fd]

No he didn't give a prediction - he just said a lot needed to go wrong for Biden to lose. Well is losing your mind on the way to the election counted as a lot ? Cos it certainly put him out of the race.

[@hape3862]

He always speaks of the incumbent party.

[@Red1Green2Blue3]

He did NOT say that. He never makes a prediction until after the conventions. He said that Biden remaining as the candidate would ensure that one of his keys (incumbency) was in favour of the democrats.

[@theusareview7960]

​@Red1Green2Blue3 Dude literally is bragging he predicts 3 years before voting day on multiple elections & ur talking abt "he never predicts until tHe ConVeNTion" lmao

[@MichaelStevens-u9s]

White Amy Martinez Susan Jackson Sharon

[@TheNightmoose]

lol anchor seemed patronizing at times, not quite unbiased interviewing

[@BlueJazzBoyNZ]

It's Sanity vs Profanity The Prosecutor vs The Felon

[@theshadowman1398]

So vodka bottle Harris is sane to you ?

[@mrtee3477]

She did put an innocent man in the deaththrow.

[@BlueJazzBoyNZ]

@@mrtee3477 Thanks' Putin..

[@mrtee3477]

@@BlueJazzBoyNZ ok gong fei

[@JeffBilkins]

@@theshadowman1398 You replied to "sanity vs profanity" with 'vodka bottle harris"? Please continue making an absolute fool of your cult.

[@picklethepirate]

Wow this professor is FURIOUS! Calm down, brah!

[@barumbadum]

Wrong

[@theshadowman1398]

So in real life Trump has a 10 point lead.

[@JeffBilkins]

10 points in the polls this professor just demolished?

[@fgadenz]

Oh boy, this guy should be less insecure… half of the interview, no matter the question, was he talking about how incredible and infallible his method is.

[@JeffBilkins]

He was there because of his method and the book he describes it in. Would be weird to talk about the weather.

[@SathyaCR]

🥹😇🤔

[@DG-ie5ip]

Your system is BS !

[@maddious9520]

Make your own system with out your bias, back test it with all previous selections.

[@Cinnuhminn]

Learn to make a claim using arguments that undermine your claim and at best use an example to illustrate your point. His system actually has a thorough academic process that has always been the same. It's without any bias. It has predicted both Trump's 2016 victory as well as Biden's 2020 victory.

[@egomod]

lol

[@TimMountjoy-zy2fd]

Maybe your thinking is BS cos his system seems good but lets see .....

[@brownmold]

Cope.

[@Bheemagni]

Over hyped analyst

[@lvanvan]

his system or whatever is just absurd and still he is on all tv channels talking how 9 out of 10 50% chances are something magical...

[@YN-ot9jk]

This guy says economy is doing ok😮. We had historical inflation. Go and ask how people are doing. Using crude GDP and not adjusting it to inflation is useless "key". You can have same amount of gross domestic product, but measured in inflated dollars will give you a perception of economic growth.

[@TimMountjoy-zy2fd]

GDP is ALWAYS adjusted for inflation else it would be meaningless. His measure on economy is "NOT in Recession" at the time of election. I find it hard to share his rock solid confidence on Kamala and while I will vote her I have huge doubts and Trump is a ferocious and very very good campaigner and will be fighting to the end so I have NO confidence my choice is going to make it.

[@YN-ot9jk]

@TimMountjoy-zy2fd it depends if he's using nominal or inflation adjusted GDP. Also, the definition of recession has been recently changed. Just look around and ask any middle class or person of lower Socio-economic status if they are doing better economically now or 4 years ago. I can say that me and any person i know have been hit really hard by inflation.

[@hape3862]

"We had historical inflation." - If you 'Muricans weren't so self-centered, you'd know that the whole world has had inflation too, in some countries far worse than the US. Is Joe Biden to blame for their inflation too, or should you perhaps applaud him for bringing it down?

[@Red1Green2Blue3]

The US economy is growing at a great rate. It grew by 2.5% in 2023. The key (which is what he's talking about) isn't about anecdotal and subjective opinions of random individuals, it's based on objective facts, has there been a bad recession or not. His method has been correct for every election, you have no evidence to the contrary.

[@2532robh1]

Total BS.

[@johnvu7570]

Yeap, trump is the loser.

[@harshab007]

Trump 2024 for sure.

[@Catnyp2828]

😂😂 Nope!! No fascists for the United States! We just got the Cheneys! Two of the biggest conservatives!! You have kid rock & chachi😂

[@JeffSichoe]

lol that professor just talked for 1 min straight about the 2016 polling and how he was so so right and everyone else was so so wrong, but then he spends very little time talking to how Trump is going to win in a landslide. Wack

[@TimMountjoy-zy2fd]

His prediction is Kamala - did you not listen ? She wins based on his 13 keys system. Lets see .....

[@heli398]

It actually be more fun if trump is elected, Harris's policy and government would be identical to Biden. It would be a uncertainty with trump elected again

[@maddious9520]

If your a anarchist I'm sure it will be more fun, if your still alive that is to enjoy it. You dont seem to understand the current geopolitical state of the world or remember trump first term.

[@heli398]

@maddious9520 Meh not everyone live in usa, who ever become the president changes little for people outside usa.

[@hape3862]

@@heli398 "… who ever become the president changes little for people outside usa." - Tell that the Ukrainians!

[@heli398]

@hape3862 Ukraine is not going to win the war, no matter how much aid it is receiving. Trump would just make losing faster

[@Catnyp2828]

​@@heli398If only that was true!!