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@thekietnguyen267319 күн бұрын
Hmmmm... nah no thx:>
@fantomfang110019 күн бұрын
Why would you shill a scam?
@kashmirha19 күн бұрын
Please, learn to express yourself in a simple way. Your language is so overcomplicated.
@davis313819 күн бұрын
@@kashmirha LMAO
@CatFish10719 күн бұрын
Thanks, I hate their ad copy and am tempted to stop listening to you whenever you start mentioning news sources. How many viewers is it worth losing to take their money?
@OdyTypeR19 күн бұрын
15:53 - I literally laughed out loud. IDK how much footage you had to scan to find the perfect meme-juxtaposition pair of screenshots, but fwiw, your efforts weren't wasted.
@Gametheory10119 күн бұрын
Sometimes the images just fall into your lap, and the game becomes how to write them into the script!
@OdyTypeR19 күн бұрын
@Gametheory101 Not all players would recognize the opportunity from their information set, let alone seize the opportunity, nor execute the joke for such a substantial payoff. Why am I not surprised that your strategy to playing the _game_ has sound _theory_ behind it? 😉
@teeteetuu9419 күн бұрын
Lol... It's as if I could hear 'large' being spoken in my native tongue (very similar to Taiwanese Min-nan)
@JellyAntz19 күн бұрын
*15:50 for the full effect
@cjackfly19 күн бұрын
I died at 12:05! 😂 Now... Looking forward! All steam ahead! 😅
@hipmusicdrumminsingin19 күн бұрын
I think it's underrated how the particular details of Ukraine-Russia and China-Taiwan are different, and how that changes the logic surrounding the PRC's response. China recognizes Ukraine's sovereignty and does not recognize the independence of the LPR and the DPR. Russia therefore fomented seperatism and an illegal, unilateral separation of those two regions from Ukraine as a whole. China (meaning the PRC) views Taiwan as a breakaway, renegade province, constantly at risk of unilaterally declaring independence and running under the security umbrella of a strong neighbor. To me it kinda seems like the PRC doesn't want to provide any more support to Russia's invasion of Ukraine because they view Ukraine's current situation as their own worst nightmare vis-a-vis Taiwan
@RenegadeElite10119 күн бұрын
That is what stopped them initially. I enjoyed the Chinese FM during press conferences on 2022 explaining how China not calling out Russia for helping (more like encouraging if not completely forcing ) the breakup of Ukraine while similarly defending its approach to Taiwan. Though I think a large part is also due to Chinese - European and Chinese - Pacific Island relations. China is reliant on Europe, as it is on the US, for trade and it has a more positive dialogue with Europe than the USA. Meanwhile , while its aggression in the pacific is well known, it openly supporting an open land grab from Russia will likely trigger massive fears that China may do the same to its smaller neighbors. The last thing China wants is for the smaller nations further rallying and allying themselves against it. The nations apart are not a threat to Chinese dominance in the Pacific , but a solidly united Pacific Nation group would cause massive heachaches for China especially if such a group is being supported by the US Navy. TLDR: China has too much to lose to fully support Russia , Russia (who was never in any threat) just isn’t worth it.
@rayhuang615519 күн бұрын
@@RenegadeElite101你的水平就像小学生😢
@emperorjuul19 күн бұрын
@@RenegadeElite101 I completely agree with this statement! Although the way of power is controlled differently in comparison to the West, I also think that China is a lot more conservative about the idea of war - although militarisation seems to be a major concern, I think it's the result of improving technology, as well as the fact that China's become a manufacturing powerhouse. I genuinely believe China wants to cooperate and not go to war...but that'll always remain a mystery. It depends on how America and the West reacts to the economic changes in China!
@hipmusicdrumminsingin19 күн бұрын
@@RenegadeElite101 Yeah, I'm mainly speaking from a purely constructivist point of view in this case. I don't think this is the only reason the chinese are largely sitting out
@dawoifee19 күн бұрын
I think this is why Russia in 2022 immediatly went for Kyjiw. If the legal government flees or get captured Russia can set up a puppet Regime wich agrees to join a Greater Russian Empire. As such PRC could easily agree to it since it is framed as the will of the people and the "Reunification" of a historic Rus People.
@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis971419 күн бұрын
Its about the principle. If the USA send a signal that its willing to forsaken the Allies than China might think it can get away with taking Taiwan.
@adamndirtyape19 күн бұрын
Ask Canadians if they still think the USA is an ally. A Trump-led America is already treating Canada as an enemy. It's not going to stop there.
@IRGodful19 күн бұрын
Ukraine is as much a US ally as Iraq was
@TheMonkeygrunt19 күн бұрын
The U.S. Has done more than it's fair share for the Ukraine conflict. And Ukraine was not and is not an allie.
@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis971419 күн бұрын
@@TheMonkeygrunt "The U.S. Has done more than it's fair share for the Ukraine conflict." No it has not. Its given at most half of what its fair share is. "And Ukraine was not and is not an allie." Yes it is.
@Zolotou260419 күн бұрын
@@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714 No it's not. Israel for example is an ally. Trump doesn't think that they should cut support for Israel.
@argusauge6219 күн бұрын
Danke!
@Gametheory10119 күн бұрын
Thank you!
@geodkyt19 күн бұрын
Your final point about how a declining power may ignore their decline until it is too late, because the immediate benefits are so palatable, leaving the decline to be "tomorrow's problem" underlines something that too many people ignore in their attempts to render every geopolitical problem into objective and wholly rational problems that could then be reaolved mathematically, instwad of acknowledging, *"Humans gonna human, even world leaders."*
@eeekkk3423519 күн бұрын
It can still be considered a rational response because humans discount the future. Thus, an additional unit of utility today is valued more than the dread of a unit of disutility tomorrow.
@JSK01019 күн бұрын
@@eeekkk34235moreover humans make decisions, nations (or powers) do not. Some people prefer to be king of the garbage heap over being a commoner in paradise
@yektaagra74119 күн бұрын
@@eeekkk34235 OP says discounting the future itself is irrational, like how im putting aside studying for my finals to write this reply
@eeekkk3423519 күн бұрын
@@yektaagra741 The future isn't guaranteed but the present is since we're in it right now. Hence, it makes sense to discount future utility to some extent, or in this case disutility.
@Thetarget117 күн бұрын
See also: Global warming, mass immigration, demographic collapse, allowing industry pollution, export of manufacturing and so on and on...
@jeremyjackson742919 күн бұрын
As a Taiwanese, I don't know how I should feel about this situation
@kostam.111319 күн бұрын
You should embrace your Chinese heritage but without the CCP
@OffendingTheOffendable19 күн бұрын
China sucks
@oo-xb6gv19 күн бұрын
It literally doesnt matter what governments ruling you, there so much fear mongering rn most governments are the same, China is no different. Don't die for cheap slogans, remove yourself and keep your family safe no matter whats to come. Edit: "stand for your beliefs" As if your beliefs are anything but cheap slogans. Repeat the exact same thing again and again, see what changes. See what tangibly changed after a new government, and spare me the literal cold war level rhetoric. Whats tangible is your family, dont sell them for the interests of politicians. The fact that so many people a violently opposed to this yet will never throw themselves into the grinder this will inevitably create is funny. I wonder. how many of you will have to be dragged to do what you've been screaming about?
@RenegadeElite10119 күн бұрын
@@oo-xb6gvyes because ignoring problems and refusing to stand for your beliefs has such a long track record of working out
@Biobin12319 күн бұрын
As a Georgian, I don’t know how i should feel about this situation
@santiagotorrezsegarra779019 күн бұрын
just wanted to point out that if you deal with russia now, then the european part of nato will be free to send aid to taiwan later, as well as cementing the diplomatic position of the US.
@kumiq1719 күн бұрын
Except they probably won't. If they cared about taiwan they would of been doing so like the US before this war was even a thing and would also be doing so rn because they can be providing taiwan with the aid they can't and wouldn't be useful for ukraine. Europe sees Russia as a threat they merely see china as a rival. Europe will be donating all of its efforts to strengthening its capabilities which it is dreadfully behind in and rebuilding ukraine
@eeekkk3423519 күн бұрын
@@kumiq17 But you in turn are forgetting the US is a NATO member and inserting itself into the Taiwan straits forces China into initiating a conflict not just with Taiwan but also that NATO member of which the other members are treaty bound to aid in the event of attack. The aid might be indirect but I don't think anyone doubts the US wouldn't get backing from Europe in a conflict with a peer rival. This is the true deterrence China faces. A potential hot conflict with a superpower and the rest of NATO.
@stephenjenkins797119 күн бұрын
@@kumiq17 Yeah, they probably won't. But at least it means that the US will not have to waste resources backing Europe if Russia takes advantage of its distraction against China. No matter how you argue it, helping Ukraine benefits the US long run as long as Putin and his cabal are in charge.
@LogisticsWW19 күн бұрын
On paper, maybe. But look how hard Europe is dragging its feet to help Ukraine, actively defending itself from future Russian aggression in the future. It'd be nice if they helped with Taiwan, but I wouldn't count on it given their performance in aiding Ukraine.
@badluck564719 күн бұрын
Europe sees Taiwan as a US problem to solve with Korea and Japan.
@ItsJoKeZ19 күн бұрын
hey y'all - the "first time I've watched in a min" comments are new bots it seems. just report.
@Gametheory10119 күн бұрын
That would explain why there are so many of those comments appearing well after a minute…
@duatchol771019 күн бұрын
@@Gametheory101yeah idk what KZbin and Google are doing. Pro Russian bots are so blatantly rampant on the platform
@nostro194019 күн бұрын
@@duatchol7710 2 pajeeets 🇮🇳 rule google & KZbin so what do you expect
@IFlyIChris19 күн бұрын
@@duatchol7710people are tired of supporting and sending so much money to foreign country. That's why we need to stop the Ukraine and Israel.
@Flight_of_Icarus19 күн бұрын
What worries me is the messaging. If the US forces an unfavorable settlement in Ukraine, what lesson will the world take from that? That, should a more powerful neighbor invade another less powerful country, that country will either fold immediately, or be given scraps for international aid, until the West gets bored. So if the bigger neighbor can hold on for long enough, even if they're completely corrupt and incompetent, they will make territorial gains at the end of the day. That, and the Global West is an unreliable and fair weather partner, that can't be counted on to keep the global peace. China will absolutely exploit the unreliability of the US to try and coerce Taiwan into joining them more peacefully.
@znail467519 күн бұрын
In fairness, Ukraine wasn't allied or even friendly with the west before the chaos that led to civil war and Crimea occupation. Ukraine is getting help more on the basis that the enemy of my enemy is my ally then from obligations.
@kjrom19 күн бұрын
But China is not invading a recognized country. Most countries recognize Taiwan as a province of China. Already defending Taiwan separatism would mean setting precedent of separatism of say Scotland from UK or Catalunya from Spain or whatever local govt.
@sajuente823519 күн бұрын
LEsson is simple. Make yourself strong. Make a war. Get some territory and refuse to move. It already happened after Ukraine all around the world. Even friendly countries without proper army start talking some diplomatic bullshit ''this was ours in past we want it back''. World is on fire.
@1.4billion6519 күн бұрын
Powerful country invade the weak, are you implying USA? sick of people view the US as good guys.
@squirtleawesome106419 күн бұрын
@@kjrom Europe seems to support Kosovo despite that. Besides, Tibet or Xinjiang would be a better analogy. Taiwan has already been independent for long enough and continuously owned by the state known as the Republic of China. I think internationally leaders will understand the nuance.
@brendanmay958519 күн бұрын
15:47 & 15:53 i love that you spent the time getting these body language representions. ❤🎉
@matthewj533319 күн бұрын
It feels like 'But wait! It get more complicated!' a couple minutes after each one.
@mitchellunruh75419 күн бұрын
So excited for the next long-form! You put soooooo much effort in to all of these videos, but those seem extra special.
@dargonxon629119 күн бұрын
I'd love to see a colab with you and Perun
@chrisedwards393719 күн бұрын
that would be legendary
@GabrM19 күн бұрын
yes!!! this please !!!!
@silproost663519 күн бұрын
🙏
@JinKee19 күн бұрын
Have you ever seen Perun and William Spaniel in the same room? Coincidence? I think not!
@jimtalbott953519 күн бұрын
@@JinKeeLol.
@vNCAwizard19 күн бұрын
I always prefer an abstract view of issues and your YT channel gives me exactly that. Thank you, William Spaniel.
@GSXK419 күн бұрын
I love how some point to Putin's stiff, awkward walk as proof he's some super agent. No, he just walks awkwardly.
@Silver_Prussian19 күн бұрын
Bro your jealousy is showing off so much
@wolfiewiggins281019 күн бұрын
Dude he was literally in the kgb
@ace788719 күн бұрын
Dang, what a hot take
@Ballistics_Computer19 күн бұрын
No he looks like a super agent 💀 sorry to burst your bubble but that walk unfortunately is cool as hell
@OffendingTheOffendable19 күн бұрын
Yeah dwarves aren't allowed in special forces😂
@CommissarMitch18 күн бұрын
The reason I love these videos: 60% Information (I could either piece things together through other sources or already know details talked about) 39.5% Visual gags 0.5% Lines On Map
@Swiplys18 күн бұрын
Yeah but the analysis is all BS and even the information is inaccurate as hell
@peterheinzo51518 күн бұрын
95% LoM
@memirandawong19 күн бұрын
It's very complicated...but wait! It gets even more complicated.
@owlcaps787619 күн бұрын
I used to visit Ground News daily, but after they put the factuality and ownership information behind paywall they became part of the problem, a news aggregator that presents news without any additional information, meaning they spread the biased news to non-paying viewers like any other would and I stopped visiting it and don't plan on paying because of it.
@fantomfang110019 күн бұрын
They provide no service that anyone with common sense and basic media literacy would not already have. Another scam site to collect user data
@JSK01019 күн бұрын
Eeh or you just pay the equivalent of 2 cups of coffee to save democracy or smth
@owlcaps787619 күн бұрын
@@JSK010 they were saving democracy, until they decided they like money more than democracy, do I have to support that mentality with my money, will they start liking democracy and open information more if I paid them?
@JSK01019 күн бұрын
@ come on they are supposed to work for free now
@owlcaps787619 күн бұрын
@@JSK010 nobody is asking them to work for free, they used to give simple information for free but now they don't, a simple grift, they have their right to do it and I have my right not to support it, end of discussion
@ComprehensiveTechnologyConsult19 күн бұрын
Thank you William Spaniel for all your hard work!
@exquisitedoomlapointe18519 күн бұрын
Spaniel is the goat
@nfriedly19 күн бұрын
"Kompromat" is a Russian term that refers to compromising information used to blackmail or discredit a person or group, usually for political purposes. It can include anything from personal scandals to financial misdeeds. (I had a doozy of a time looking that one up until I realized it was spelled correctly in the subtitles.)
@VinePest19 күн бұрын
Thank you, video was impossible to enjoy for me without this information.
@seneca98319 күн бұрын
That's literally explained in the video itself (though only in text form).
@АлександрСоловьев-п5р19 күн бұрын
Blackmail would be a perfect translation, no idea why would anyone insist on using Russian loan word instead
@seneca98318 күн бұрын
@@АлександрСоловьев-п5р I don't think that's a good translation as it doesn't refer to the act of blackmailing but rather certain kind of information that could be used for blackmailing.
@seneca98318 күн бұрын
@@АлександрСоловьев-п5р I don't think that's a good translation as it doesn't refer to the act of doing that.
@rickb932719 күн бұрын
I'm wondering why the Russian's shadow fleet of decrepit tankers haven't been boarded and inspected for seaworthiness simply for environmental concerns, unless we're expecting the "insurance" coverage provided by the Russians will fully indemnify the disasters that are sure to come. I won't hold my breath.
@nigelgarrett797019 күн бұрын
Possibly because China may decide to do the same for merchant vessels approaching Taiwan?
@yopyop324119 күн бұрын
It’s because Russia has proven to be so incredibly incompetent. The West has always had the ability to shut down Russia’s oil exports. If Russia were seen as a real threat, those Russian oil exports definitely would have been shut down. But because Russia has proven to be so impotent, there’s no sense of threat in Paris, Berlin, etc. Why should the West want to deal with disruptions to the global oil market if Russia is toothless? Even the oil pipelines that run THROUGH Ukraine are still operating. The only plausible explanation there is that the West is telling the Ukrainians not to mess with those pipelines. In addition, as noted in the video, the flow of Russian oil is helping to incentivize China away from invading Taiwan. Further, if China does invade Taiwan in the future, the current setup means that the rest of the world will be able to avoid excessive disruption to the oil market by cutting off both Russia and China at the same time. Remove Russian supply simultaneously as you remove Chinese demand. Another concern is the lack of stability in the Middle East. Conflict could easily break out there at any time. The world does not want to face the prospect of losing both Russian and Middle East oil at the same time. So as a hedge against that risk- that’s another reason to keep the Russian oil machine running for now.
@stephenjenkins797119 күн бұрын
@@nigelgarrett7970 Unlike Europe, there is no excuse of literal infrastructure getting sabotaged. If China does that, then they are the one massively escalating.
@Llortnerof19 күн бұрын
Safety concerns. Inspectors aren't equipped to inspect submarines. I kid. A little.
@frankrenda251918 күн бұрын
russian vessels have nothing to do with the west
@LR-jk2jk19 күн бұрын
One of the best channels on KZbin. Thank you.
@paulyoung442219 күн бұрын
Who is providing North Korea with the raw materials, to make weapons for Russia.
@Corium119 күн бұрын
probably russia
@WILLIAN_142419 күн бұрын
It's mostly old cold war stockpiles, they don't really produce much, just refurbish what is already in stock and send over the border.
Last time I was this early Oceana was at War with Eurasia
@Corium119 күн бұрын
Last time for me they were comrades
@WILLIAN_142419 күн бұрын
@@Corium1 OCEANIA WAS ALWAYS AT WAR WITH EURASIA!
@afelias19 күн бұрын
@@Corium1 that sounds like some wrongthink propaganda
@Chuck-xu8rc19 күн бұрын
come see me at the ministry of love 😍oceania has always been allied to eurasia, at war with eastasia
@Noobsaucer19 күн бұрын
This was a fascinating one, even to Lines on Maps standards. Can't wait for the next feature-length piece!
@arnold376819 күн бұрын
The thing is Trump has expressed his displeasure with US involvement in Taiwan as well.
@christopherkeith650319 күн бұрын
But Trump wouldnt let taiwan fight china alone.
@Cowtymsmiesznego19 күн бұрын
Yeah it's something I've been confused about throughout a bunch of these videos. It's stated as a known truth that Trump wants to go all-in against China, but my understanding of his political campaign has been that he wants to be more isolationist overall. It would obviously apply first and foremost to Ukraine/Russia, but also (to a lesser extent) to Taiwan/China and Israel/Iran
@sonneh8619 күн бұрын
@@christopherkeith6503how do you know? He said he would place "huge tariffs" on China in case of an attack. He's an isolationist, after all
@arnold376819 күн бұрын
@@Cowtymsmiesznego US has a massive trade deficit with China and I believe that is Trump's #1 issue with CCP - hence his famous threats with tariffs. But from his perpective, american allies (Taiwan & NATO) treat US as nothing more than military insurance company which allows those allies to "freeload".
@AyjayAlleyway19 күн бұрын
@@Cowtymsmiesznego it’s really pretty starlight forward: other nato members need to pay their fair share.
@VirtueInEternity19 күн бұрын
This is unrelated, but I love the longer form documentary videos you have put out up to now and they made me get your books.
@MM.x.0013 күн бұрын
Thanks Mr. Spaniel
@Fenrisson19 күн бұрын
I swear I'll buy the books as soon as I get a job, instead of posting Random Comments for Engagement Purposes all the time.
@UncleJoeLITE19 күн бұрын
I've never laughed at Game Theory so much as I do here. Can't help but notice how geopolitics & poker have a lot in common. Thanks Dr S. 🇦🇺
@LA_Space18 күн бұрын
Outstanding video. 🇦🇺✌️
@frankgulla233518 күн бұрын
William, you do have a style of making complicated situations, understandable, if not less complicated.
@emperorjuul19 күн бұрын
Thanks for making this video man. China is always an interesting conversation to have and I hope you make more videos about it! Living in between both the UK and China, I always see a mixture of both sides trying to convey a particular message. You seem to be quite balanced and I appreciate that as it's always difficult to have these discussions.
@howtoappearincompletely973918 күн бұрын
You weren't kidding - that is _quite_ the conundrum.
@mwmoroney16 күн бұрын
William, have you ever considered trying to organize a small, select panel of thoughtful YTubers (like yourself) from across the spectrum of outlooks about the war and conduct a short, focused discussion on a particular topic? A session that enables opinions, supported by facts, presented in a rational way is right up your alley. And a serious "point, counterpoint" segment would really make for great viewing for people interested in levelheaded conversation about the conflict. I know it wouldn't be easy to do, but it would great for serious viewers and I think it would be great for you. Thanks for what you do.
@hypotheticalaxolotl19 күн бұрын
I look forward to that future documentary video, as you call it, on western aligned interests. My thesis is on American hegemony (in specific Canadian contexts) and part of it is examining the common idea of 'American coercion,' and comparing it vs. 'aligned interests,' so more information would be helpful!
@Rmluit17 күн бұрын
Once again such an insightful video for a poli. sci. student; thanks a lot, these really help me understand political theory apropos of current affairs!
@a13Banger19 күн бұрын
Crazy to think ex-NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg is now going to be the president/leader of the Bilderberg group!! (seeing his photo in this video reminded me of this fact I saw in the news yesterday)
@Goodfellow608219 күн бұрын
Crazy ? Nato chief m rutte living in the hague wear bilderberg hotel is 😂😂😂😂
@2149200680890519 күн бұрын
@@Goodfellow6082 did you have stroke while typing that?
@sonofasalesman19 күн бұрын
(((Bilderberg))) hmm...
@JSK01019 күн бұрын
@@Goodfellow6082he comes by bike so it needs to be close
@davidsleith722219 күн бұрын
hey from scotland - merry Christmas and aw the best for coming year, love your video's, cheers
@asan105019 күн бұрын
Thank you very much!
@jtd871919 күн бұрын
Have a Happy New Year, William.
@thedamnedatheist17 күн бұрын
Oh no!!! Not another "Axis of Evil".🙄🙄🙄
@dunzhen6 күн бұрын
The Axis of Evil is America, Israel, and the UK
@andrewwhyte475319 күн бұрын
Pretty densely packed one this time (which is good :) ). Thankyou!
@marrs101319 күн бұрын
The war in Ukraine doesn't need to be changed into this generations Iraq or Afghanistan. Ukraine fights its own war, they don't need troops, they need material. And supplying that means billion dollar comtracts for US companies and endless source of goodwill and influence in the region. The US not capitalizing on that will be seen in a decade as another US foreign policy disaster after Iraq and Afghanistan. This will be seen as the US policymakers just unable to 'read the room': to go where they are wanted, and stay out of where they are not. Utter incompetency.
@steviechubbs523817 күн бұрын
Because the US is dealing with lots of deep and underlying problems in it's own country. It's the same reason we didn't help mexico during the American Civil War, or that we didn't help Europe during the Great Depression, we have bigger problems at home
@diogorodrigues74713 күн бұрын
@@steviechubbs5238 Comparing a full-scale war with serious geopolitical implications to an economic depression is bollocks. You should pay attention to what you write on public platforms.
@hedgehog318012 күн бұрын
@@steviechubbs5238 You've been saying this for two decades now without ever actually addressing any of those problems, it's starting to sound like an excuse.
@steviechubbs523812 күн бұрын
@hedgehog3180 yeah, it's almost like we've been at war since the early 2000s. What, did you think that Iraq and Afghanistan weren't a massive problem?
@tkm238-d4r7 күн бұрын
A problem for Ukraine is that its strategy is largely based on holding at all costs. In Afghanistan and Iraq, the insurgents managed to reduce their losses as to drag on the conflict. Furthermore the insurgents were able to move within the civilian population. Not so sure if the Ukrainian population would be that keen to support a 20 year resistance movement against the Russians. Race in this case is a reality, not a social construct.
@nickisnyder345013 күн бұрын
Thank you so much for your in-depth analysis. I always feel that the main points overlooked in these conversations are: China cannot completely piss off the United States as we are the world's consumer. It has nothing to do with military might. China is the world's manufacturer. We have a consumer relationship.
@sathivv95019 күн бұрын
Have you considered the possibility that it is not kompromat, but straight up bribery at play with many western politicians? In addition speaking of not wanting Afghan light; Trump kept the war going for the entirety of the four years he was in office. So I am not sure I follow this reasoning since he could have ended it any time if it was important to his geopolitical strategy instead of pushing it off for his successor to do it.
@mikes.413618 күн бұрын
Excellent analysis.
@thejudgmentalcat19 күн бұрын
19:41 Michael Scott reference 👍
@NewyJimmy19 күн бұрын
Love your videos. I will stop whatever in doing when they come out
@Homer-OJ-Simpson18 күн бұрын
14:31 Taiwan’s new leader visit to Hawaii wasn’t big news because the prior meeting in California and the Nancy Polosi visit to Taiwan have each helped to normalize such meetings. It’s a loss for China
@Gametheory10118 күн бұрын
Good point!
@EpochNewsUS19 күн бұрын
The analysis of Russia-China dynamics here is intriguing, especially regarding oil prices. However, I think there's another layer worth exploring: how this impacts other Asian economies caught between these powers. For instance, South Korea and Japan's strategic positions become increasingly complex as they balance relations with China while supporting Western sanctions on Russia. Does anyone else see parallels with how smaller Asian nations navigated Cold War dynamics? I'm particularly interested in hearing perspectives from those living in the region - how do you view these shifting alliances affecting your country's future?
@DamienKSC12 күн бұрын
Fails to point out that the population issue is on both sides... Taiwan's population, which has fallen every year since 2020, will drop from 23.4 million in 2024 to 14.97 million in 2070, with the youth population falling by 1.71 million, the working age population reducing by 9.2 million, and the elderly population increasing by 2.48 million.
@jamesrushmoore799919 күн бұрын
Chef's Kiss for this one Will
@AMYV319 күн бұрын
this may be a silly question. where does India stand. ? it’s a large population continent wouldn’t they be someone both sides would want standing beside them ?
@awjaaa19 күн бұрын
India stands on its own and will continue to. They are on track to become the next China... in a long, long time... just like CCP-occupied China.
@melbourneplanespotter363118 күн бұрын
India would side with the West, if forced at gunpoint, though the Indian Government would pretend to preach the benefits of non-alignment while the Foreign Minister would make ocassional quips against the West and rack up millions of views online. Russia, while it had been a reliable partner for India in the past (protected India from the US Navy in the 1971 Bangladesh War, for which many Indians are grateful), cannot be seen as reliable anymore because they've been turning into China's vassal ever since the invasion of Ukraine. India and China do not get along at all, and they've gone to war in the past. Both countries have various border issues, and about a day ago, China approved construction of what would be the world's biggest dam, in Tibet. This dam, if built, would potentially affect downstream areas in India, where hundreds of millions live. At the very least, China would get serious leverage on India out of this. The dam is slated to cost $130 billion and take over 10 years to complete. This is just one example of how dire the relations between the two countries are. So, India's only choice remains to side with the West/Taiwan, though it will try to keep up the facade of non-alignment for as long as possible. The West has the ability to provide India with what it needs for development. It's also convenient that significant importers of Indian goods/services/people tend to be the Western countries.
@callmefleet9 күн бұрын
It's not a silly question. India is more or less on their own side. They are very heavily opposed to China but quite friendly with Russia. What makes this confusing is that Pakistan is closely tied to China and the USA but also India's major enemy. So India's not quite an ally of the "West" but they aren't necessarily enemies either.
@martinhartecfc19 күн бұрын
The disappointment you feel when you find out the "mat" in "kompromat" is not the cool suffix you always assumed it was. 😥
@Corvinwhite19 күн бұрын
Thank you for the informative videos I am legally blind and your videos are very helpful
@Thelaretus13 күн бұрын
Trump needs to watch this video.
@HeWhoIsRem18 күн бұрын
I think another point that isn't being talked about is that for China to go on the aggressive with Taiwan they will want to know that they have allies over seas who will be willing to continue trade with them. Loosing the customers they have in the west without a friendly market to move to would destroy China's economy. Producing cheap goods for rich nations pays a lot better. Russia's weakness and western unity is what is hurting China's willingness to support Russia.
@Azaza-p9g13 күн бұрын
There no such thing as so-caleed "Russian weakness". Braindead west propaganda for imbeciles, as always. West would lose Ukraine in catastrophical way for them, like in 1945.
@jakeaurod19 күн бұрын
I'm not sure if the non-linear format gave me a headache or if I already had one and just can't follow along today. I miss the straight-forward format taught by my debate coach of Name-Explain-Support-Conclude.
@VolkerGoller19 күн бұрын
Europe should take care of Ukraine. We are building up a lot mil production capabilities, too.
@Svevsky19 күн бұрын
I'll believe that once German Leopards are parading through Warsaw, until then this is boomer cope
@michaelrowave19 күн бұрын
@3:30 Good point, change minds with sound reasoning not emotional rhetoric. Spaniel logic for the win.
@unknown23hornet2219 күн бұрын
I think that if a war with China happens, the other crinky nations will take advantage of the fact that the US is either busy or overextended. Reliable allies are the solution. But what happens to countries like Israel, who have relied on US backing for their aggressive foreign policy when the US gets busy elsewhere?
@Anglomachian19 күн бұрын
One of the things people often don’t quite comprehend is the fuzzy amoral nature of international politics. Countries can be close, relations can be long and cordial, but they’re not friends. No two countries are friends. For Russia and China, it’s worse than that. In relevant modern history, Russia took advantage of China during their respective imperial periods, then were rivals for dominance of the eastern sphere. A position they maintain to this day. They don’t like each other. At worst, they low key hate one another, but put that aside for mutual gain.
@eliseleonard347719 күн бұрын
It would be great if you could do a video on possible responses to Russia’s attacks on NATO countries’ infrastructure (Baltic Sea cables). I’m curious as to why there hasn’t been a louder outcry and a more vigorous response so far.
@YouTubeExcavation19 күн бұрын
thx William
@Coastfog19 күн бұрын
10:14 Bro can't find *scale* in the effects settings... 😭💔
@mattk691019 күн бұрын
A complex problem for an administration with little in the way of brain power or focus, and dwindling buy in from political forces and coalitions within the population before even assuming power. What could go wrong?
@zenopath119 күн бұрын
Actually, I kind of get Taiwan's perspective. The US economy might be a giant, but it's military is extremely top heavy. A lot is being spent on state of the art stuff not much is being spent on quantity stuff like artillery shells. It's ill suited to handle Chinese army which favors quantity over everything. To put it another way, US military industrial capacity needs to play catch up to Chinese capacity and having more factories building ammo for Ukrainian artillery is a good as place to start as any. Of course as US citizen my perspective is I would rather pay less taxes... which I think is a core value for Trump supporters.
@JB-pu8ik18 күн бұрын
Eh, tax Elon, Jeff, Mark, et al at the same rate I pay taxes as a working stiff. That'll buy a moutain of ammo, and a good chunk of that money will go into the pockets of the other working stiffs making it. Win, win imo. It'll never happen, but a fella can dream.
@zenopath118 күн бұрын
@@JB-pu8ik Yeah. I mean taxing rich people and corporations isn't easy, since they have accountants and lobbyists. Still, I do feel like Trump is definitely more focused on lowering taxes for the rich than he is on lowering taxes on everyone else, so I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.
@laurenjeangreenbean63016 күн бұрын
Will, please accept my sincere appreciation for your approach to this channel and instrumental explanation style. Just fyi, there's nothing sexier in content creator than a sardonic joke featuring both portmanteau and Russian translation without need of explanation. Truly, Domo arigato, Professor Roboto! ❤ from Prince George VA ❤ cant wait to see 1mil subs for an actual intellectual actually sharing facts rather than the shameful and damaging propagandist clichés on nearly all other channels...
@djpleasureeux19 күн бұрын
Really informative video 💪🏿
@jessvagnar495714 күн бұрын
Excellent video, thank you. I haven't been following the 'pro-russia' narrative, but this helps me understand and temper my blatantly pro-Ukraine forever viewpoint. Democracy > Russia, and we can dampen China at the same time? Thank you!
@NAFO_MythicPlague19 күн бұрын
A bad peace is worse than war.
@KoenDeKapoen18 күн бұрын
My opinion doesnt change, we have to win in Ukraine to prevent future war. Lose there and we are in for one hell of a ride.
@SabinStargem19 күн бұрын
There is a ton of good and useful reasons for NATO nations to support Ukraine: 1: Supplying military hardware allows them to get their manufacturing and logistics into good shape. Furthermore, the hardware is field tested, allowing for better versions to be developed. Also, the understanding of modern warfare in actual practice would be very helpful. 2: Sending a message about whether NATO-aligned nations oppose China or Russia. If they back down, that is indirect permission for Russia-China to act freely. This determines whether existing alliances and trading partners continue to cooperate. 3: There is serious economic boons in supporting Ukraine - not only for supplying them now, but also post-war. Ukraine has grain, oil, uranium, and is going to need redevelopment. A surviving Ukraine would be an ideal trade partner, and would readily accept migrants or temporary workers from other nations, which means that money will flow. Russia isn't attractive on this front, since that nation is hostile to notions of democracy or fairness in general. 4: Helping a budding democracy to bloom will allow democratic nations to have another like-minded ally when the time comes. ...Russia, as we know it, isn't really going to help on any of these points. The same can be said of China.
@ИльяСолдатов-э8п13 күн бұрын
Surviving Ukraine most likely would not be somewhat prosperous in next 50 years. Their demographics looks just as bad or worse then Russia's. And then war inevitably ends Ukraine would open their borders. If war does not end with decisive Ukrainian victory lot's of economicly active population will leave it cause of possible round two of war (or their borders could be kept closed which is not very good for business). Future of Ukraine after the war does not look bright to me with their only option is what they can bargain from EU and US with their weak bargaining position. But who knows maybe US will make example out of Ukraine like they did it with West Germany.
@hedgehog318012 күн бұрын
@@ИльяСолдатов-э8п “make an example out of” is actually an idiom in English that means something to the effect of “punish to scare others” so you can't really use it to describe Western Germany. Instead a more appropiate phrase would be “turn into a model nation” since that implies putting extra effort into rebuilding a country so it'll look good on the world stage. Also when it comes to the rebuilding of Ukraine those plans have already been pretty much hashed out and some small things like mine clearing has already begun. It's meant to be a joint EU project with the eventual goal of having Ukraine join the EU, and each EU country has been tasked with specifically taking care of one specific region and they also have specific areas of responsibility, like Nordic countries being tasked with anti-corruption efforts since historically they've been pretty good at that.
@FPoP191119 күн бұрын
Treating russian and chinese on the same front would show a distinct lack of any understanding of their complicated history and the fact that at the end of the day, they're kinda more worried about each other and the US.
@davidcrawley947919 күн бұрын
Both China and Russia are permanent security council members for which attempts at UN security council resolutions or other forms of diplomatic pressure are totally ineffective. They are both large and largely self sufficient countries for which sanctions have limited effectiveness. In short they are both in the position to break international law at will. The primary thing that stops them is the belief that its a loosing game to do so. Causing Russia to loose the war in Ukraine by means of strong western intervention demonstrates that attempts at breaking international law will be met with a vigorous western response and will thus dissuade China from doing so. As such we should not engage in half measures in Ukraine - we should give them everything they need to quickly defeat Russia.
@prosl1119 күн бұрын
Stupid analysis, russia can not be defeated as it a nuclear power so unless you want a nuclear war go ahead and talking about breaking so called international law you should look closer at home they have broken many times the inter
@tkm238-d4r7 күн бұрын
The Western strategy was never to defeat Russia directly. It was, as in the words of Peter Hitchens, using Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia. Furthermore, the West has been significantly helping Ukraine since 2014 in various military and political ways. The problem is with Ukraine's own management of resources. The only thing we have not done yet is Operation Barbarossa the sequel.
@lobstereleven461019 күн бұрын
Two points regarding this topic. 1. while it is true the needs of UKR is somewhat different from the needs of TW in terms of war materiel, one being a land war and the other being a sea theater, there are significant similarities in terms of the need for anti-air assets (Patriots/THAADs/SHORADs) and unmanned drones (both UAVs, kamikaze drones and USVs). Furthermore, UKR right now is already near-parity to RU in terms of artillery ammunition and is making up the deficits with their own drones. What the UKR is lacking significantly is personnel, this has been addressed by both the UKR themselves and very good Western analysts like RUSI and Mike Kofman from Carnegie. Thus in terms of anti-air assets there absolutely is a zero-sum game. the US only produces so many Patriots/THAADs a year, and with bases in ROK, JPN, and Guam, plus upcoming possible basing in the Philippines, in addition to other foreign markets, there's just not enough of those to go around. 2. regarding cheap oil, i think this is a bit of missing the forest for the trees, China has just completed the Power-of-Siberia pipeline with Russia to transport Russian gas directly. An investment costing somewhere between 50B-70B USD just for the construction with estimated contract worth 400B USD, this isn't made as a short term investment, even more so with the planned Power of SIberia 2 pipeline on the way. China and Russia are already committed to energy deals as both sides see this as a win-win. So no matter how the war goes in UKR, China will continue to consume and buy RU energy. Trying to limit Chinese economy using energy is a dead end strategy, as the old saying say, "The enemy always gets a say" and China is investing heavily not only to diversify energy sourcing with the noted pipeline, but also investing in tighter relationships with oil states in the ME (just as the US is looking to extract itself from that region)
@stefanogandino919219 күн бұрын
You miss one point: if you enable russia to invade ucraine you enable china to invade taiwan the same as enabling taliban to retake afghanistan enabled Russia to invade ucraine. If you show commitment to defend ucraine you show money-hungry chinese that it would be a costly effort that won't really benefit them to try to invade taiwan, the same as invading ucraine was a costly effort that hasn't really benefit russia up untill now.
@ADobbin119 күн бұрын
It never will benefit russia even if they annex the whole country. They will have nothing but rubble and empty land they have to rebuild and repopulate with a declining population and massive embargos dragging their economy down.
@Svevsky19 күн бұрын
There is just one problem: the war is costing the west way more than it is costing russia, and despite the west's superior propaganda, involvement in the ukraine is getting unpopular. While Russia can always spin this as a new patriotic war, westerners will always perceive it as a new vietnam. Trump getting elected is a sign of this. No geopolitical argument is going to convince someone hit by the housing crisis that the refugees caused
@tkm238-d4r7 күн бұрын
No, enabling Russia to invade Ukraine contradicts the right of mainland China to re-unify with Taiwan. In this case, Ukraine is China, Crimea is Taiwan, Donbas is Hongkong and Russia is the USA. As far as mainland China is concerned, if relations with Russia can be put aside, Ukraine has the right to re-take Crimea and to go after armed rebels in Donbas.
@stefanogandino91927 күн бұрын
@tkm238-d4r lol no, first because ucraine is a former ussr state and therefore the entire ucraine is taiwan to russia, second because these are all excuses to imperialism, which is the only things that matters.
@General12th19 күн бұрын
Hi Dr. Spaniel! How the turntables tables.
@bigbluebuttonman113719 күн бұрын
Geopolitically, the Ukraine Affair is *much* more important for the future of Europe; consequently, it's also important for the future of the US if it's going to be at least nominally involved in international affairs. See: both world wars for that point. But the reality is that Ukraine and Taiwan are two separate stories. Depending on how the Ukraine War goes, Russia's capacities as a power will be considerably reduced for some time, but that's more or less the gist. Personally, I want Ukraine to win, but Europe has plenty of ways to support Ukraine.
@steviechubbs523817 күн бұрын
America is trying to pivot to an east Asian mindset, since that's where the main enemy is. Anyone worth their salt knows that even a weakened Europe can absolutely keep Russia and it's allies down, but Chinese capabilities are both unknown and potentially far greater
@Azaza-p9g13 күн бұрын
West would lose its again its "drang nach osten" like in 1945. Kiev terrorist regime would not exists in end of war.
@dunzhen6 күн бұрын
Delusional. Westerners are all so deeply delusional it's at dangerous levels
@ietsbram15 күн бұрын
It doesnt matter if you think russia and china are 100% committed to each other. A strong russian militairy will tie down lots of european and us resources no matter what they do. Only woth russia and iran unable to do anything major can the us militairy focus on china
@scaper1212319 күн бұрын
I feel like a lot of this discussion is irrelevant. Trump isn't going to look for the best long-term strategic choice. He'll just take the option that lets him spout headlines in vehement speeches and then get pissy when his ego isn't appeased.
@Adriaticus6 күн бұрын
cannot wait for the next video
@Andriy_Sklyar19 күн бұрын
As a Ukrainian, I strongly ask the author not to make inserts with lines of "partition of Ukraine", we will either lose or win, we will not allow half of our country to turn into a second North Korea.
@Kodakcompactdisc19 күн бұрын
Well said 👏🏽
@seneca98319 күн бұрын
Partition is something that *might* happen whether it's wanted or not.
@awjaaa19 күн бұрын
You should watch more of the earlier stuff and understand the entire purpose of the channel name. This is a game theory channel. Moving, imaginary lines on maps are only a useful illustrative tool he has used since the beginning to share the concepts of game theory.
@Nyarurin19 күн бұрын
a loss or a win can mean different things to different ppl. I would consider a win any type of good security guaranties and a decisive step towards integration in to the western family. Basically EU membership with solid security guaranties and a path to future nato membership would be a big win for me, regardless of what would happen with the captured territories. No path to western family and shaky security guaranties would be a big loss even if we would get some territories back - because it will simply mean that we will remain in rus sphere of influence which it will then use to strip us of any remaining political and military independence. As for the unrealistic goals of "getting everything back" - well, it is an unrealistic goal. The west collectively is not interested in our big victory and we don't have resources to do it without them. The best we can hope for - is to secure the rest of the country and our future while minimizing the losses.
@chrimony19 күн бұрын
You're commenting on this from the front lines, then?
@stewartmckenna313619 күн бұрын
thank you
@SpocksGlock19 күн бұрын
I’m just here for all the angry trumpers in the crowd who have suddenly changed there mind about you
@danwylie-sears113414 күн бұрын
No one can possibly believe that Russia and China share a limitless friendship. A dragon does not ally with a gnat.
@neolithictransitrevolution42719 күн бұрын
Id love to see some Coverage of Japan and Pacific NATO equivalent. Japan appears eager to be more involved in its defense, sharing bases and having equal ownership of US strategy in the region. And Trump wants the Pacific paying for itself. I think America will be able to push a defense alliance of SK, JP, and Taiwan (and itself) since they all have mutually aligned goals and American focused equipment. Which will likely be able to pull in Vietnam and Philippines. Plausibly, Japan and US might be able to pull in the QUAD countries. And France, via New Caledonia (and maybe the UK through Pictan), who is trying to make a play and a Military presence may be willing to join as a Nuclear power and high end arms provider. india, France, or the UK would provide a nuclear umbrella guarantee in the event the US pulls out further, which I'm sure the core members would appreciate. Canada as well (particularly if you've pulled in the UK, Australia, and New Zealand) has a Pacific coast and may join as well, albeit offering limited military advantage, may join as it has a Pacific coast. And that may be useful, alongside the US and Australia, for resources and logistics.
@hmhmoinsdk19 күн бұрын
I heavily doubt new Zealand would want to join such an alliance - they very much enjoy their geographic isolation which makes them essentially uninvadable anyway - why would they put a target on their back? Similarly India is unlikely to join a formal western alliance - they were a leading country of the non-aligned movement. Taiwan being an official member in such an alliance also seems unlikely - after all; all potential members don't even recognise Taiwan - inviting them to an alliance would very much violate the us strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan . While SK and Japan share an enemy (nk) south Koreas relationship with china is a lot better than Japan's and in a way SK does not have to care about Taiwan one bit - while it is quite vital for Japan.
@neolithictransitrevolution42719 күн бұрын
@@hmhmoinsdk About NZ I agree, it's certainly a minor point there, but with significant American Pressure and the fact NZ realizes on a safe maritime regime largely policed by the US, and the normalization presented by the other Anglo Pacific countries being included in an entirely defensive alliance, I think it's possible. I also agree about India. The point there was there are several countries in the region which could offer a nuclear umbrella. And of course, the India of the last century is not today's, which clearly attempting to be a global power. Add to that the Indian concerns with China and that a defensive alliance might help them ensure no incursions, and that some Indian Client states could be brought in along side, again I think it's possible. I disagree with the point on Taiwan. The US is legally required to support already. Certainly you couldn't have a NATO type requirement on no border disputes, but that wouldn't have worked for a Korea that considers itself the only legitimate government on the Peninsula or a Japan that claims half an apparently Russian island. I agree with your point on SK, but I think American support is far more important, and if the US says they will withdraw it if SK refuses to support wider US strategy in the region, and with the benefit of clear Japanese support against any NK action, I think it would go through.
@neolithictransitrevolution42715 күн бұрын
@@hmhmoinsdk so on NZ I agree, and it's a minor point, in terms of what is brought to defense. But I do think it's possible with American pressure and normalization via other Anglo countries joining. Particularly considering how NZ depends on international shipping. In terms of India, I largely agree (as with AUS, I think bringing in QUAD is less likely). However, India today desiring to be more assertive and influential than in the past. And the defensive alliance is largely focused on China; at least from India's perspective. That's a benefit to India and it's client states. Being a nuclear power in such an alliance could be a very relevant and enticing role.. I disagree in terms of Taiwan. SK recognizes itself as the sole government of Korea. Japan has border disputes. Obviously a NATO type requirement for fixed borders wouldn't work. I think US pressure for defense is far more significant. I agree that Japan has far more to be concerned with Taiwan than SK, but I think SK would role over pretty quickly for US defense guarantees.
@nerdnalist19 күн бұрын
China freaked out when the new Taiwanese president went to Hawaii. They said it was a grave provocation. I don’t think it got much attention because there wasn’t much to it. China did a few months later perform war games around the island but when don’t they do that.
@Strykenine19 күн бұрын
It's a good thing Trump and his entourage are so intellectually gifted. He will certainly find a way through the weeds.
@peterdavid503419 күн бұрын
More like a sociopathic toddler brandishing his Daddy's gun
@Trickaz9419 күн бұрын
@@Strykenine said literally nobody ever
@marcpaulus629119 күн бұрын
is this irony?
@deborahborlase710019 күн бұрын
I sure hope so.. @@marcpaulus6291
@tc-tm1my19 күн бұрын
Smart or not, he's intuitive. He recognizes problems even if his solutions aren't always the best.
@suzanashomova289119 күн бұрын
Great video! ❤
@mjouwbuis19 күн бұрын
An economically more developed China does NOT create as much customers for imported goods as you'd think, unless they change policies dramatically.
@jackshultz202416 күн бұрын
Europe is facing an economic catastrophe. As a result of the war in Ukraine, European industries have lost access to cheap Russian energy, making them globally less competitive, and having bought into the US anti- China trade policy, they have lost access to their 2nd largest market at a time is threatening their industries with higher tariffs and is boasting to base that he is stealing jobs from Europe. Given Europe’s predicament, I don’t know how Europe can replace the US in financing and arming Ukraine. Can’t happen.
@HaukeLaging19 күн бұрын
It seems to me that there is an elephant in the room. It seems the best case (not necessarily the one with the smallest risks, too) for both Europe's and Taiwan's security is the permanent destruction of Russia as a threat to NATO. That would mean the fall of the Putin regime, followed by something much better and/or the breakdown of current Russia into several independent countries. If Russia is no longer a mafia state then they have neither the means nor a motivation to threaten NATO or support China. And with China paying much more for Russian oil, natural gas, and food(?) China would be much less of a problem, both militarily and economically. If I remember correctly then Europe / NATO expected the Russians to become kind of nice people after the fall of the Soviet Union. Obviously we overestimated the Russians as a people and underestimated the evil in Russia (like e.g. Putin). But that does not mean that it cannot happen yet. I am by far not an expert for Russia but I do not see how another mafia state (which is based on money after all) should "successfully" become the successor of the Putin regime. Everything in Russia is falling apart. Even Russian stuff outside Russia if we consider their ships. There is no hope of life becoming "good" for the majority of Russians ever again if they remain hostile to the only economic superpower NATO. I understand that the thought of Russia falling apart might be terrible for western leaders. Nukes falling into the wrong hands, warlord states arising. But all that may happen anyway so NATO should do something about it. Make the clear statement that we will buy all their nukes after secession and that NATO would take violent action against warlords. The EU and the US can offer certain immediate trade relations and support for producing oil and natural gas. The Russians need a very realistic vision of a better future in order to make the right decisions. And let's set the date, around October 2025, for the Russian revolution so that everyone in Russia can prepare.
@S41GON19 күн бұрын
Using the word evil in a geopolitic discussion makes serious people instantly disregard anything you wrote.
@HaukeLaging19 күн бұрын
@@S41GON Maybe. But intelligent people would no longer take someone serious after such a reaction.
@d.f.914019 күн бұрын
Well, let's put it that way, history showed that it is possible to make it somewhat sure to get rid of an aggressor that threatens the whole balance. Let's say Russia looses and the collapse is already in motion, depending on how hard they hit the ground, there are some possibilities hypothetically speaken. After Russia lost reparation needs to be demanded to built up Ukraine and strengthen its infrastructure and economy. That in turn will guarantee with a white peace in conjunction a secured border of Ukraine that is the black sea and the direct Border. The reparations force Russia to pay in oil/gas and other assets and here it becomes iffy. Let's say part of the peace plan includes demilitarisation of Russia with clear terms such as Disarming from a nuclear power to a conventional one and getting split. The threats were made and as such complicated the whole mess. Russia wouldn't need to be completely demilitarized but would not be capable of threatening the world and use it as a pressure point. That releases pressure also regarding China, as it is known that Russia flexes on China with mitary power and as such, plus the oil trade, would enable Russian splinter countries to stay in trade, rebuilt, but when also paying reparations, on a controlled level. China on the other hand would stay the top of the crop in economy, isn't pressured by Russias military anymore and the US patrolling near Taiwan would secure the south. Now Europe gets into the mix, as Russia sells gas and oil to the EU, the Russian economy is dependent on European ties, Wich already has relatively neutral ties to China. When the EU can (and that also means Ukraine) further watch over Russia, chances are better to get the already more peaceful attempts to lead a continent, to keep it at bay, like done with Germany after ww2. It isn't even needed to, but possible to divide the administary to the divided parts of Russia, so now smaller states under supervision the chance to become independent and stay neutral because of the divided power. This would open a market that is more leaned towards European measurements and in return would make the complete north of Asia and coast lines basically secured. If China now stays friendly, the only country that threatens with nukes and isolates itself is North Korea. But North Korea gets kept in check by China AND now due to supervision European countries. Taiwan would be secured, every east European e,X sovjet union country would have the chance to be independent by default and the only letters left are MAYBE NK, I, Y depending on how China reacts. But it is more likely that it straight up when getting the from Russia taken parts back, simply stays just an economic and military power, but saturated as it can trade with northern ex Russia regions supervised by the EU. What happens next is, the hoothies and near east conflict, as Turkeyj is already in get's clearer, USA and T need to stay on contact and the conflict over there is dealt with without another party involved and we can basically watch what happens in South America and Africa, while step by step raising the former Russian parts to independent trustfull partners for the west and east and hope the best that neither China overreact, North Korea is kept in check, and not another Saddam Hussein or Assad rises in the near east or elsewhere. Sounds that like a plan.. Because I'm German and we are basically the only country this was ever done to and it worked. If the separated ex Russian countries will partially or as a whole will find each other, and if they want this is then up to them. We just need to make sure (hard enough) that no iron curtain again rises, and that European laws and plans inspired by the Marshall Plan don't fail.
@leventekocsis910319 күн бұрын
@@S41GON 'Evil' was not used a singular time in his comment.
@avroarchitect179319 күн бұрын
@leventekocsis9103 2nd paragraph.
@SukacitaYeremia15 күн бұрын
Steelwilled on the font sizes of your infographics? That's Spanieling!
@AKAyourdad245819 күн бұрын
Did you really said "And thus, if you really cared about Gina 12:06 (China).😮
@uss-dh790918 күн бұрын
As someone behind Trumps effort to end the war as fast as possible, this breakdown is shifting my perspective on the whole thing... So many lines of dominos... Doesn't seem to be any positive way out of the current situation, just less objectively bad ones.
@OffendingTheOffendable19 күн бұрын
Banks not forgiving loans
@bossboy7119 күн бұрын
William you helped me so much in Game Theory Thanku very much Lots of love 💕 from india 🇮🇳