Turkey's Economy Cannot Hold Out Much Longer

[@MoneyMacro]

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[@clanholmes]

The following quotation has been attributed to Tytler, although it has also been occasionally attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville:[21] A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

[@ravenkk4816]

4th scenario Money & Macro, turkey quite NATO and join with China to secure a big loan low interest Loan in Yuan. Or maybe it will at least try to use Yuan-liras trade to solve the issue.

[@justsefa1843]

I think there are a few things that were not taken into consideration: 1. Energy prices went up by a lot, which greatly diminished the export-to-import ratio of Turkey. Exports are increasing faster than imports since 2011. It is unlikely that the rapid increase of imports (from last year) will increase (at this rate) post-energy crises. There is good reason to assume that exports will outpace imports. 2. Nominal GDP did increase and is expected to increase for the forseeable future. Additionally inflation is expected to greatly fall to lower 2 digits. It already fell to around 70% is expected to fall to 46% by the end of this year. That is still high, but the point is that this will not decrease its credibility to pay back loans, but increase it. 3. There are multiple projects/trade agreements across the region and with Syria getting back into the arab league, a potential reconciliation and trade with Syria is also on the table. There are already talks with Egpyt and diplomatic breakthroughs in Algeria. All of this can definetly add to the exports/prosperity of Turkey. 4. There is a lot of investment going on in green energy. Just this year Europe's largest solar energy plant was opened in Turkey. This will not only make Turkey less dependent on foreign energy, but also greatly reduce import cost. I dont see a reason to be particularlly negative about the current development of Turkey. Sure it is still quite demanding, but wages are rapidly increasing, inflation decreasing and the economy increasing with promising projects inside and outside the country taking place or planned to be done in the near future.

[@LAYKIRMEN]

Thanks for the video but I wish everyone was aware of everything❤️🇹🇷❤️🇹🇷

[@SamuelHauptmannvanDam]

Are you ever so slightly out of focus in the video? As in the camera.

[@axel708]

For his next term, negative interest rates

[@mauritsbol4806]

That will show the Woke international community who is boss.

[@Kyle-yo4yy]

@@mauritsbol4806While bankrupting a developing economy

[@davec8153]

Boring, Japan already did that.

[@cxarhomell5867]

​@OsamaBinLadensSecondGirlfriend Okay, cool. Erdogan still won.

[@hamidhamidi3134]

@OsamaBinLadensSecondGirlfriend from absolute dependence on western weapons today Turkey is a huge weapons exporter. tens of millions of passenger are passing through Turkish airports annually. looks like developing to me.

[@ravenguard1495]

Funny stuff is that local manufacturers are so certain of lira collapse that are taking advantage of this to stimulate exports. Apart from the advantage of having incredibly low personnel costs due to the collapse of real value of the wages, they are using the relatively low interest rates and easy access to loans to take incredible amount of debts knowing that, thanks to the collapse of lira in the meantime, the value of the repayment of these debts in dollar terms is negative (and they get paid in dollar for exports). This is temporary allowing Turkish exporters to flood the markets with unbelievably cheap priced products while their gains are practically paid by the rest of Turkish population.

[@redbird1f873]

It's like government doing this intentionally to save exporters at the expense of everyone else.

[@kevinu.k.7042]

Great post. Thank you for explaining.

[@zakkart]

So basically capitalists are raking money out of the expense of the majority of the population.

[@tugrulserhat]

as a turkish citizen, I couldn't explain the situation any better. I'm not an exporter or even a business owner but I try to take as much advantage of this situation as I can, borrowing in lira and investing that into dollar paying assets. when buying something, I buy in 12 monthly installment so half of the price of the item is cut in dollar term by the time I pay the whole thing...

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@redbird1f873 They kinda are, and that's no secret. Even the video acknowledges that they're concerned about Turkeys' trade deficit and trying to boost exports. Erdogan is basically sacrificing fiscal and monetary responsibility in order to turn it into an economic powerhouse - IF it doesn't collapse before that. They're determined to become net exporters with big industries.

[@Ginger_Tank]

"They have dollar, we have allah." - How much for the doner kebab? - 10 Allahs

[@BenersantheBread]

It's like 3-4 Allahs actually. Everything is pretty affordable for tourists and only tourists

[@shoja2009]

Construction section of Turkish economy is in bed with government & it’s essential for them to have access to low interest rate

[@okman9684]

So the recent earthquake is more of an opportunity for Turkish economy than threat

[@thomfing1]

Sounds like the USA too.

[@petekdemircioglu]

Easiest way to launder money

[@عمر-ل9ع2ي]

@OsamaBinLadensSecondGirlfriend did erdogan beat the shit out of you before that is why you hate him lol😂😂😂😂

[@عمر-ل9ع2ي]

@OsamaBinLadensSecondGirlfriend what you said was an “illogical fallacy” since you haven’t proven that erdogan is in fact in cahoots with the construction sector of the country

[@Whyoakdbi]

“They have dollars, we have Alllah” that made me lol

[@deebil8099]

Yea, even the most religious Muslims would be like fuck that, give me dollars instead...

[@IskenderCaglarM41B441]

He should've been clown. Tbh he already is...but he should go to circus or something or make stand up comedy.

[@FolkeBernadotte2]

Hey… the Taliban (although I myself despise them) said pretty much the same thing “they have high tech weapons. We have Allah”.

[@CHFEdits_]

:( Türk halkı olarak bıktık

[@widodoakrom3938]

@@deebil8099 as Muslim I agree with u

[@SeeLasSee]

It’s hard to see a country that grows great fruits and vegetables have inflation that makes them unaffordable to the masses. Things like cars or TVs are purchases that can be put off for a few years when interest rates are difficult. But daily food ingredients are different.

[@afro_princess1671]

The answer is simple, it's the west that causes these with sanctions and using gcc countries to destroy turkey's economy and blame it on Erdoğan

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

Yes, but what if the food gets exported to higher priced markets so the farmer can survive? If they go out of business, then next year harvest doesn't get planted or dies unharvested. It is not unheard of food not getting harvested as the farmer loses less money doing so.

[@rashid8646]

That's how inflation works everywhere. And it shouldn't be surprising for middle income nations in economic transition... in fact we should expect more of this in the developing world going forward, as emerging economies try to undertake industrialization policies.

[@RedbadofFrisia]

​@@rashid8646 i'm sorry but Turkey has already industrialised and manufacturing is actually going bust. You seem to be defending Turkey everywhere in the comment section, not so well hidden allegiances?

[@rashid8646]

@@RedbadofFrisia If by "everywhere" you mean a couple of comments, sure. Not sure what you mean by "allegiances" or "defend Turkey". Turkey doesn't have a single opinion on these issues, and I am a Turk discussing my nation as I understand its politics.

[@yasacinar]

And after all of the things he has done, half of the country is STILL voting for him. It's insane.

[@arman3291]

Because the people are jack ass!

[@recaitheshrewd]

Half of those half are Almancilar Turks (German Turks). They don't even live in Turkiye. But anyways, I heard a racist party has won in Germany.....good, now Almancilar Turks will suffer as they deserve

[@sbbeats1082]

Islam comes first, vote muslim leaders

[@erbugbeyfendi5081]

ortodoks çözümü seçtiler

[@onepersonintheuniverse]

@@sbbeats1082 *THE PEOPLE* come first, vote *PEOPLE SUPPORTING* leaders

[@Charvakarishi4669]

Can you cover Pakistans problem as well seems that country is struggling for an IMF bailout

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

Pretty straight forward. The IMF won't/can't do it as it actually bails out China's bad loans which does nothing to improve Pakistan's position. This wouldn't be a problem if China was willing to negotiate collectively with all the other bondholders like normal. China won't as it loses Face, they want to 'flex' by negotiating unilaterally, and they don't want to take a haircut / wiped out. What China is doing is even worse than simply defaulting, they are rolling them over and accounting tricks leading to a lot of uncertainly as to when the whole thing blows up again.

[@Snp2024]

Is it's like thier 10th imf bailout?

[@sumeettanwar1608]

​@@Snp2024 they had more than 20 actually.

[@anonyKinetic]

He is has done one short on Pakistan, would love to see him expand.

[@niggacockball7995]

@@sumeettanwar1608 how the fuck are they still alive?

[@ChrisisBowser]

Such a depressing situation. I work with a lot of international people, including students coming from overseas to Australia, and the number of extremely highly educated (engineers, doctors, lawyers, etc) Turkish people who are literally running away from their country is eerie. The brain drain factor is going to have further dire consequences for the Turkish economy for sure. It was also devastating to see their faces the day after the result of the election. They're so angry, sad, and desparate. What a terrible situation for this beautiful country with such amazing people.

[@arman3291]

Brain drain is bad for Turkey because it has amazing food. -- Your logic

[@ChrisisBowser]

@@arman3291 Not at all what I'm saying, but I've edited it to make it clearer for you. :)

[@udjfnhdhd4409]

​@@ChrisisBowser😂very funny😅

[@paradasea2082]

I was graduated from one of top highschools in turkey.I decided to study medicine abroad due to having better perks like being able to work in Europe easier .My friends in Turkey will also try to leave after they graduate next year.And i see so many people from my school ( engineers , doctors ) leaving for europian countries.While more of less educated people staying in the country.That will definitely will cause problem unless Turkey finds a way to attract graduates( not only wage wise, doctor wages are almost same as some europian countries but also lifestyle , culture).

[@udjfnhdhd4409]

@@paradasea2082 this is also bad for turkey neighbors, dictators always attack neighbors to rise their popularity and always blame foreign enemies for inner economy problems, hope this .... Tards will not committe second Armenian genocid

[@kevinl8440]

You could have saved yourself 10 minutes. "Erdogan is a moron". There you go. End of video.

[@kayra3554]

hey hey heyy You shared the video as soon as the results were announced. Did you expect erdoğan to win, or was there a second video you would publish if Kılıçdaroglu won? by the way your videos are great. You are one of my favorite channels!

[@walli6388]

I myself favoured Lilicdaroglu but it was clear since the last election that at an participation of 92% Erdogan was winning this one.

[@baris3513]

+1

[@Relaxatihon]

@@walli6388 92% participation isn’t abnormal in Turkish elections, just look at old elections they’re always 80%+ participation and passed the 90% mark at least one other time

[@walli6388]

@@Relaxatihon Yeah, but at 92% There isn't much wiggling room to mobilize a lot more ppl. That coupled with the fact that the 3rd placed would never support a coalition which has Kurds in it you see the writing on the wall. Plus, even if he won, he would be between a rock and a hard place. The AKP won the parliament and Kilic has ran on a platform if more democracy and more power for the parliament. So, he would probably been screwed either way.

[@MoneyMacro]

I had made 2 versions because the main story about the state of the economy now is basically the same. The percentages for the future scenarios are quite different in these versions though.

[@jammas8253]

As a Greek, I fully support Erdogan😂🇬🇷💙🇹🇷

[@mcdonnelldouglasf-4ephanto607]

And as a Turk, I fully support Mitsotakis😂🇹🇷❤🇬🇷

[@jammas8253]

@@mcdonnelldouglasf-4ephanto607 Will be both of us living in ruins but at least we won't have money for war 😂 May God/Allah bless us brother 🇬🇷🤝🇹🇷

[@mcdonnelldouglasf-4ephanto607]

@@jammas8253 Haha, that's true 😂😂 🇬🇷🤝🇹🇷

[@khalilabushahin418]

Holy shit I've never seen a greek and a turk having a good time

[@sleepyuser5189]

@@jammas8253 Για να είμαστε δίκαιοι οικονομικά δεν έχουμε τώρα πάλι κάποια άμεση καταστροφή

[@azirious666]

External validation is hell of a drug

[@Bolognabeef]

It's the same for everyone, not just third world people like Indians Indonesians etc but also Europeans

[@Bolognabeef]

@OsamaBinLadensSecondGirlfriend i don't think so. The only way to solve inferiority complexes is either to have a superiority complex (like the African Americans, they think they're the best and nothing you say will change their minds) or you can genuinely stop thinking about others which is the hardest part

[@TheCat48488]

​@@Bolognabeef or, stop being "human"

[@asingha94]

​@@BolognabeefSuperiority complex will start to exist when you become superior

[@tunahanturann]

I think the social problems in the country are even much worse than the economic problems. This government is digging the grave of an entire republic day by day.

[@arman3291]

nice

[@shanyuUtku]

Definitely. moral corruption and political polarization are at their peak. Everyone is trying to grab something from each other. Government trolls have dominated the entire agenda. He who does not commit immorality is considered an idiot.

[@udjfnhdhd4409]

​@@shanyuUtku can you write more detailed, crime rate growing?

[@shanyuUtku]

@@udjfnhdhd4409 Street interviews are very common in our country and are watched a lot on KZbin. In these interviews, many young students, family men or elderly retirees complain of not being able to get along because of the high cost of living. An Islamist-looking government troll that you can see in every video comes out and says to him, "Don't be ungrateful, everyone has 2 cars. You are a liar. Before Erdoğan, there weren't even shoes. Everything is perfect, you are an western agency, everyone is in abundance." says. This is the summary of the situation in the country. The divide between the rational, poor and secular dissidents and the politically immoral partisan Islamic rich. The monthly salary of the citizen, whom Partizan accuses of being a western agent and ungrateful, is 12 thousand TL. Monthly rent is 6,000, bills are 2,000, food shopping is 2,000 TL. Along with other expenses, the monthly salary ends completely. Just to meet basic needs. Now imagine that this citizen has a child and has to send him to school. Consider how the government trolls I mentioned spread all this vice among citizens who survived despite these hardships.

[@shanyuUtku]

@@udjfnhdhd4409 basically the problem in Turkey is moral corruption and social hysteria rather than visible crimes.

[@yelinbinicisi3642]

At the moment the interest rate in Turkey was raised to 40%! I think there is an update video needed

[@emreapaydn4064]

Yeah, just watched this again and it seems like we're heading to the orthodox recession ending, funny enough, option with the least chance he talked about. I'd love an update for the situation though.

[@m.aydogmus5834]

As a Turk, I have no hope for my country. I am even looking for ways to leave the country. This is not because of bad economic management. My monthly income is $2000 and that's about the same as a doctor's salary. Poor people see Erdogan as a god. Although the poorest people are most affected by this economic crisis, they are Erdogan's biggest supporters. 50 thousand of our people lost their lives because of the government that did not take precautions against the earthquake. And it doesn't matter to people who are poor. Because the government does not exist for the people. The people exist for the state. And this is making me sick to my stomach now. There is nothing I can change. Because I tried and it didn't work.

[@HansPeter-ou5fx]

gonna cry?

[@m.aydogmus5834]

@@HansPeter-ou5fx It is more attractive to cry than to be an AKP supporter who can't even use his real name. :D

[@m.aydogmus5834]

@Andrew Boyd You don't have to leave the country just to earn good money. There are many reasons. But injustice is the biggest reason for me. I could explain this a little more but I don't want to. Because in my country, people can go to jail for what they write on social media.

[@rojpeg]

@@andrewboyd6517 olay sadece ekonomik sebebler değil çünkü '' I think the social problems in the country are even much worse than the economic problems. This government is digging the grave of an entire republic day by day. ''

[@IMPERIALYT]

Another perfectly timed video, really enjoyed it

[@jaysnehpandey7089]

you better get that verified tag soon

[@Dumbledore6969x]

@@jaysnehpandey7089your mom will

[@keremgulsen8663]

Selam Türkiye'den yazıyorum. %10 olasılık verdiğiniz ortodoks politikalar ile faiz arttırıldı şuan %40 seviyelerinde politika faizleri var.Türkiye merkez bankası Mehmet Şimşek ile yatırım bulmaya çalışıyor ancak deprem ve israil filistin savaşlarının etkisi borsada kendisini belli ediyor.Yeni bir Türkiye videosunu bekliyorum.I am looking forwad your videos.

[@enticingmay435]

At this point the people of Turkey have no one to blame but themselves for their suffering. If the death of 50k+ of their people in the earthquake and their daily struggle didn’t change their view of this man than nothing else will. The sane people should just move their talent and dreams to the West where they can live safe, free and stable lives.

[@evilkhamzat]

It’s sentiments like this that ensured an Erdogan victory. Euroid arrogance 😂😂😂 keep crying

[@tommyjohnson9176]

⁠@@evilkhamzat Did you watch the same video? It’s not a good outlook on the future of Türkiye. They could have been a world power backed by the strength of the EU. Instead they will most likely fall into recession.

[@microwaveenthusiast7410]

@@evilkhamzat Spot on. The opposition had a stance where they said "Anyone could beat Erdogan" before the first round. Now they're saying "No one could beat Erdogan". They're a total fucking joke. They had 2 major canditates that could have beaten Erdogan (Because they pretty much did so in their respective local elections), instead they went with the most unpopular candidate. Pretty much dooming themselves in the process.

[@burakbasduzen]

that's right. me and my friend goes to europe before the next election, we are on software industry.

[@AaronVanWolfen]

​@@evilkhamzat is not him that is poor here 😂😂😂

[@shivamx008]

my uncle has a friend from turkey in the us , he says most political influencers stay abroad all year and come to misguide people during election times, because a devalued lira means they live live kings when back in the country after earning through questionable means in euros or dollors with the party's help.

[@seadkolasinac7220]

why does them getting more liras for their dollars mean they aim to 'misguide' people during elections?

[@zodishsoap]

As a turk I can confirm this all these people who left this country even in the 1960-1990s to work(and their offspring) in the EU they all say EU is a mess and all that to trick the ignorant turkish resident and praise the government and this country (which is going downhill btw). Its just sad that all the peasents and their patriotic offsprings stating all those sentences without living in turkey foremost not working in turkey and getting turkish liras. I geniunely hate all those foreigner turkish people who state that turkey is all good and all that. its not.Its just mediocre that all those turks in the foreign countries which they think they represent us(which they dont).If they are too fond of with this goverment they can come here and live here themselves but they dont have the balls to do so.They are keep stating that they have centered their life in a foreign country.Why not come to your homeland since its in a better state and is a good place? Guess its not afterall since they are 2 penny worth people.Safe to say I have more respect to anyone who isnt in this state(besides Syrian,afgan and arab refugees)

[@narniadan]

opposition party''s help. Also Soros tried that with Gezi Park. It was about a Park but Soros sent all those people to Turkey to turn a harmless protest into his money making cash. But it didn't work out. It worked with previous governments.

[@aysanyatak]

Im living in türkiye thats right

[@recaitheshrewd]

Haha, Turks betraying Turks

[@necesitoMuchodiNero]

RIP my country. Those bad days will pass, worse days will come.

[@IskenderCaglarM41B441]

Couldn't care less, it can crush and burn for all I care.

[@Seyma0816]

@Laxman Tiwari Turks don't give a fuck about india, where does this hate of indians towards Turks come from?

[@necesitoMuchodiNero]

@Laxman Tiwari at least our people doesn't believe cows are holly

[@Noirjk]

​@@necesitoMuchodiNero Our people believe in a book written thousands of years ago. A single book.

[@monakandari6160]

@@necesitoMuchodiNero Cause you aren't exactly centuries old rich civilization with agriculture as their main source of Income and you kind of celebrate festivals to slaughter Animals. No we aren't same

[@JM-st1le]

They have dollars, we have Allah 😂

[@narniadan]

at least he's not falling to the floor and doesn't know where he's going or where is the way, or doesn't say my son is a martyr in Iraq. Clean your own garden before pointing to others'

[@cancamhayhay]

every turkish woman do not wear hijabs. hijab is not symbol of turkish woman. according to faith of each single woman wear or not wear. turkey is not iran or the other country…

[@Kenneth_James]

Did you see him handing out money to people after his win? lol, just in the time he took the money from his pocket and extended his hand it lost value.

[@Kemalbasnr]

Lol

[@pateytothefirst]

It sucks living in here. We just want to earn money, grow old and die in peace like our friends in Germany, France or Denmark. I am so tired of this stuff, aren't we all humans? citizens of our country? brothers? What am I supposed to do? Sorry for letting it all out here, this comment will likely get lost in the comment section but even if one person understands and relates to me it's fine

[@meralonde2722]

I am sorry to hear that but there’s nothing you can do. Your passport is getting weaker everyday, will be impossible to leave turkey in the future. Just because you born in turkey, your fate is sealed in poverty and lack of human rights. This is the only reason and it sucks while you see the other people in eu living their lives to fullest just because they born in a developed country

[@kevinl8440]

Well stop voting based on religion.

[@orhanmuratoglu7609]

Thank you for your detailed analysis. Sadly I think attributing Turkey’s economic problems to only monetary policies is over simplification. The root of the problem is the short lived 10-15 year economic growth was solely attributed to construction. Although Erdogan contributed a few hugely beneficial infrastructure projects such as the Istanbul metro., many of the projects were on borrowed money that has added to the national deficit. Most were for show and their economic boost were short lived during the construction phase. Now that their construction is over majority are an economic drain for decades such as the new nuclear power plant where the project is touted as Turkey becoming a nuclear power but in fact it is destined to cost Turkish public to pay the Russians higher than market rate for electricity for decades to come. At the end of the day Russia is building a Russian nuclear plant on Turkish soils. Boosting the economy with short term projects with long term debt is the true culprit of the economic meltdown. Of course the ideological monetary policies make the matters even worse.

[@enzomartin7703]

Tres bien dit 👌👌Erdogan is the most odious ultra-liberal in the world. Prior to Erdogan's arrival, Turkey followed the more rigorous Keynesian political economy of OECD countries. When an economy is brutally liberalized by selling off 80 years of capitalization, short-term opportunistic investors seek to take advantage of the growing bubble, hence the growth between 2000 and 2005. The second is after the 2008 crisis during which the State launched large calls for tenders by multiplying its sovereign debt.

[@sandwarrior5579]

@@enzomartin7703 prior Erdogan the inflation rate was around 110% during 90s, and it was around 80% during 80s. So please do fact checking before posting such things

[@nezgi8220]

@@sandwarrior5579 but turkey was under sanctions on that days (80s) and ratio of public/private dept was not even slightly closed to todays numbers in actual values

[@sandwarrior5579]

@@nezgi8220 comparing public debt to numbers instead of ratio is stupid. The GDP of Turkey was also like 10 times smaller than today. There were no economic sanctions on Turkey in 80s

[@nezgi8220]

@@sandwarrior5579 sanctions of 74 were lifted way later in 80s. Also, there was a military coup on top of all

[@rryhuu]

I am very happy. Now Turkey will become a financial super power Insha Allah 😂😂😂😂

[@gray8091]

Build a toilet

[@narniadan]

@@gray8091 we've built for you.

[@narniadan]

The more they don't want Erdogan the more I know we've chosen the right person for the country.

[@helix8462]

I find it strange that you previously agreed that raising interest rates would have been a temporary solution and would hurt the Economy later down the line What happened?

[@MoneyMacro]

Extreme credit growth in a domestic economy.

[@MoneyMacro]

also super high inflation is starting to get entrenched and real interest rates (corrected for inflation) have now been negative for quite some time.

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

iirc there was also a economic bump from everyone spending their savings before they became worthless.

[@helix8462]

@Money & Macro ok there was this three part series made by a Bosnian by the name of Almir Colan that dived into turkey's economy Have you seen it? What do you think ?

[@helix8462]

@@MoneyMacro kzbin.info/www/bejne/i6qzeqWYrauobpo

[@vidisg14]

Last year, thanks to Erdogan, Turkey had the highest (!) inflation rate in the whole world, why the f*ck do people celebrate his victory in the comment section 😂😂

[@ardagenc4674]

Cause they cant understand the relationship between economy and bad policies

[@jlee4039]

Time to visit Turkey is NOW, while the exchange rate is insanely good for Americans and Europeans but before hyper-inflation and economic misery causes civil unrest and violence.

[@somjrgebn]

The sad part people don't hear about is the social unrest that would have occurred if Erdogan lost. He was the only one who wasn't declaring a deportation of Syrian refugees, which would have been chaos. This was truly why Erdogan won, not for economic reasons. If you look at the funders of the opposition parties, you start to wonder if Civil unrest is what the West wanted. What the West doesn't understand, though, is this: Western nations are now far more sensitive to civil unrest (zero-sum fights between dividing groups) via economic decline than unified cultures like Turkey, Russia, China, etc. The West has lost perspective.

[@harrierr628]

West angry that the regime change they plan in Turkey fail. The economy is falling not because of him it because of reckless US money printing that we are in this mess.

[@TenTenJ]

@@somjrgebn Turkey is not a unified country at all. I don’t know what kind of a fantasy world you’re in. Erdogan won because he is a dictator, plain and simple. He has no real opposition. He’s put everybody in jail. Furthermore, disdaining the west, while turkey collects money from the west is not noble in any sense. If you truly value, tradition and loyalty and good values, you wouldn’t disdain anyone and you would continue to appreciate what the West has given you and continues to offer to learn from.

[@Andre-by4su]

🤡

[@somjrgebn]

@@TenTenJ , Do you live in Turkey? Are you Turkish? How do you know, from Western media? "...because he is a dictator..." According to who? There are plenty of reports on how Turkish citizens feel about their election system. Even Western media admitted they trusted it. How many in the US trust theirs in comparison? "disdaining the west, while turkey collects money from the west is not noble in any sense" You do realize Turkey is applying to BRICS to break away from the west, right? Even Saudi Arabia announced they were joining BRICS. You speak as if the West is more noble... According to who? "If you truly value tradition, loyalty, and good values, you wouldn’t disdain anyone..." I'm not disdaining anyone. I simply stated what Syrian refugees had at stake with this election, which the West doesn't mention much. I also stated the social dynamics the West is missing and seems to have lost perspective on. "...and you would continue to appreciate what the West has given you and continues to offer to learn from." Who said the world doesn't appreciate stuff from the West? According to who? Could it be the West also has some things to learn from the rest of the world?

[@arifyilmaz3970]

2 years ago dollar was raising so much that our people was exchanging liras to dollars as soon as they drew their paycheck

[@Paltheus]

Bitcoin next

[@izachu904]

@@Paltheus I would rather stick to Lira than bitcoin

[@Kemalbasnr]

I think we’re gonna use Allah instead of Lira. Like price of a house is 500.000 Allah 😃

[@animeintensifies]

It seems like Erdogan chose the 2nd option. He gave the green light to the minister of the economy and the freshly appointed central bank governor to increase the interest rates and go back to “rational levels”. While this sounds like a good news and an effort to go back to more rational and orthodox methods, one should not be fooled by Erdogan as he often rapidly changes his mind. Take the year 2020 as an example : at that time the central bank governor, Naci Agbal, increased the interest rates sharply. It showed good signs as the Lira began to stabilize and even increase in value. Only to get fired a few months after as he supposedly failed to contain inflation. Although, this time it seems to be a bit different. The new minister of the economy, Mehmet Şimşek, is respected among Turkish economists as he worked for UBS as an analyst and at Deutsche Bank in the securities department. Meanwhile the new Turkish central bank governor, Hafize Erkan, is a former executive at Goldman Sach’s in the Financial Institutions Group Analytics and Strategies department. She was also the co-CEO of First Republic Bank back in 2021. Now here’s the question, why would a president known for his unorthodox thoughts about the economy would appoint such big names ? Did he realized that his strategy was a failure ? Only time will tell.

[@gandalfgreyhame3425]

I hope you do a follow up on the Russian economy. It's interesting that your last video on Russia put the Russian economy in a better situation than Turkey's

[@kth6736]

Not much inflation in Russia. So its true as inflation is rhe real killer.

[@aravindpallippara1577]

Also the Russian population is rather toughened to prospects of de-globalisation, they have a strong internal economic system with reduced expectations Which isn't something I feel matches Turkey

[@tahiraltay8499]

Yani diyor ki sıçtık arkadaşlar

[@ronnie9187]

Bedankt, altijd goede items om ontwikkelingen beter te begrijpen. Macro economie voor Dummies Plus.

[@mansour9790]

People: Sir our currency is loosing its value. Erdogan: Ok!..lets build a mosque. People: Yes!!!!

[@sayfhs6253]

Oh by doing so your getting Arab loans🙃

[@ahmadutama-cd9pb]

Muslims be like : Stays in the mosque all the time. All praying zero working Allah is on our side

[@uddinbachun7970]

He will turn it around.. He did it before he will do it again. A little bit of patience it will be better.

[@narniadan]

He will turn it around but not good for some people or countries, for their benefit.

[@Feeshermon]

Good video Joeri... Depressing results from Turkey, agree with your %s on likely scenarios. If Erdogan kicks into complete Orthodoxy then he might be able to convince his regional partners, but I agree that it's extremely unlikely based on what he's shown so far. Turkey has a lot of strong economic fundamentals... Complex economy, potential for exports, value-add potential, great geography/location, growing and motivated population. They're being totally held back by this dolt.

[@atix50]

He's just signed a $17 billion deal to connect Iraq to 🇹🇷. I think it's safe to say he's going to desecularise and align fully with Islamists.

[@adhirbose9910]

Unless the elections are rigged, it's the people who are electing the guy. So it's fair enough that they pay the cost of their choice.

[@harrierr628]

West angry that the regime change they plan in Turkey fail. The economy is falling not because of him it because of reckless US money printing that we are in this mess.

[@avgvstvs7]

Growing population is rural kurds and Syrians, actual Turks have birthrates equal to Western Europe.

[@atix50]

@Taylan6847 I've been to Turkey many, many times. Love the country and have friends from Ankara. I don't think people who haven't experienced Turkey realise that there's a cultural division there that in my humble opinion, has grown.. a lot, especially in the last decade. Mediterranean/Persian and Arabic cultures are so different. I get the impression it's becoming 'uncomfortable'.

[@reel1tv587]

Nah it's cool, they have Allah.

[@lynxlecher9547]

Yeah he'll send them more earthquakes, floods... 🤣

[@cagrakyel2936]

As a Türkey citizen thank you for your persfective. We are lookin forward to see the results neither. But the only thing we know the sociaty is the most disadvanteges group in this case.

[@hatcenizmm5905]

Yorumları okudum ve Türkiye ekonomisi çok kötü durumda bunu hepimizi biliyoruz ama Türkler üstüne üstelik kendileri de ülkelerini kötülüyorlar, yabancıların amacı zaten ülkemizin bataklığa girmesi bunu kurtaracak olan bizleriz hicbir sey yapmadan sadece ülkemizi eleştiriyoruz

[@ogulcandursun1665]

@@hatcenizmm5905 siz bu durumu düzeltmek için ne gibi çalışmalar yürütüyorsunuz?

[@hatcenizmm5905]

@@ogulcandursun1665 seneye sınava gireceğim, inşallah üni kazanıp ekonomi okuyacam ve ulkeme hizmet edecem. Atatürk diyor ki: Ey Türk gençliği, birinci vazifen Türk istiklalini ve Türk Cumhuriyetini ilelebet muhafaza ve müdafaa etmektir. Sizler pes etmiş olabilirsiniz, milletimiz yavaş yavaş yurtdisina gidiyor, oralarda çalışıp oralardaki insanlara hizmet ediyor. Ülkemiz bataklıkta olsa bile önemli olan sana bırakılmış vatan için fedakarlık yapmaktır. Hükümet kötü olabilir ama ülkemizi degistirecek olan bizleriz. Hükumet yüzünden ülemizin halkının ülkemize kibirlenmesi inanın çok zoruma gidiyor, bari sizler yapmayın. Turkiyeyi kötüleyen çok insan var yorumlarda belki ekonomimiz kötü ama onlara tepki göstereceğimize yorumlarda onları destekliyorsunuz

[@erkinyldrm6579]

@@hatcenizmm5905 Her koyun kendi bacağından asılır. Yabancıları dert edene kadar ekonomik politikaları dert edin. İç düşmanlardan çektiğimizi hiçbir dış düşman yaşatamaz merak etme

[@izachu904]

@@hatcenizmm5905 merkez bankası başkanını biz mi seçiyoruz? faiz politikalarını biz mi yönetiyoruz ? enflasyonun maaşlarımızı eritmesini biz mi yönetiyoruz ? Dünyanin en pahali arabasini , telefonunu alirken hayat standardı Meksika seviyesinde olan bir ülkede tomarla vergi ödüyorum. neden bir şey yapmamı bekliyorsun ?? Ustelik muhalefet olarak nitelendirmişsin. Amerikalıların dolarla gelip senden güzel yaşamasına izin veren ekonomik politikalarla gelişen bir ülkeyi uçurumdan aşağı iç karışıklığa sürüklemeye karşı çıkmak mı muhalefet ?

[@noahgeerdink5144]

Here’s another senario: erdogan watches your videos and finally understands how intrest rates work. Ge decides to ask you for help and 4 years later you become the president of Turkey

[@alexisvladimir8148]

You are probably a turk 😂

[@webstar9237]

🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@ataaytekin1427]

I would vote him rather than Erdoğan. We have a joke here in Turkey. Erdoğan vs yellow wc slippers who would win?

[@noahgeerdink5144]

@@ataaytekin1427 this is such a problem is so many of our democracies. All too often you can only choose between a buffoon or a clown.

[@EA-jf8ls]

​@@ataaytekin1427 Erdogan won though, so it's a joke only for a half of the country

[@boceksiadam]

Damn, you had the video ready😅

[@carkawalakhatulistiwa]

Only western imperialism Made this video😂. Western hypocrisy

[@xabiervillanueva5147]

A small note about the ideological opposition of Erdogan to high interest rates: in traditional Islam, lending with interests is considered a sin. Moreover, there is even a concept called "halal banking", that tries to provide banking services without lending with interests.

[@exfinen_2919]

Erdogan would love US, they have "zero-interest rate policy" (ZIRP), it is used to fix the economy following 2008 financial crisis. Europe and Japan are also known to have used this strategy.

[@carhac66]

@@exfinen_2919 I live in the usa, the zero & low interest only applied to the bankers & super rich. the people have always had high interest rates.

[@nezgi8220]

which is nonsense because eventhough erdogan claims to support islamic ideology it's a pure lie given the current interest rates of the loans

[@muhlisdisli]

Thats not why he is lowering the intrest rates, he lowers it bc he wants the people be more happy.

[@steviewonder417]

How would keeping rates high, they are already sky high btw, help when that means printing inflation through the interest rate channel? Lowering rates in recent months along with falling oil has actually cooled inflation.

[@LAYKIRMEN]

Thanks for the video but I wish everyone was aware of everything🇹🇷❤️🇹🇷❤️

[@stevenhenry5267]

The fact that he was reelected says a lot about Turks.

[@aizawa_classic2735]

The main opposition in Turkey is pretty much a failure. Which is %90 of the reason the elections were lost. Statistics showed everything, yet they decided to go with the policy and canditate that had the highest chance to lose against Erdogan. Welp, here we are now.

[@microwave5408]

its rigged there are like loads of videos of it

[@aizawa_classic2735]

@@microwave5408 Yeah but all elections to this day were rigged, it's the oppositions failure to not be prepared for the same shit that keept happening over 20 years.

[@Lili_Chen2005]

It's not shocking, but it is disappointing. Ataturk is rolling in his grave over everything Turkey has become under Erdogan. I just hope the country can recover from this and isn't going full Neo-Ottoman mode over the next decade.

[@jedrzejgorski5437]

Dream on.

[@faxmachine5306]

It won't go neo-Ottoman, Erdogan is cooked after this election- he's not running anymore. I don't like forecasting but given the nationalist parties were the king-makers this election, it's pretty clear that it'll be Turkey-first, but also Turkey-first on immigration and etc. We wait until 2028 I guess.

[@Lili_Chen2005]

@@jedrzejgorski5437 Dream on to what, Ataturk devoted his life to the secularization of Turkiye and to detangle the country from trying to control the Lavant. He even created a state that led the world in women's rights and charged the military with protecting democracy. Erdogan on the other hand aligned with the conservatives and religious, purged the military, is edging toward a break with Europe, and is increasingly involved in Syria, Iran, Iraq, and the Caucuses.

[@jedrzejgorski5437]

@@Lili_Chen2005 Regarding secularization, don't present your ideological subjective biases as objective truths. That borders Islamophobia. Post kemalist military has been there, often in cahoots with the US, to fight the outcomes of the Turkish democracy which the US did not like. Yet the botched 2016 coup proved that Turkish military took its nation's side for good. There is absolutely no evidence for Ergogan's neo~ottoman designs except for Western opeds. Domestic issues with Kurds and domestic demographic trends within Turkey in this regards are sufficiently troubling for the Turkish ruling class. They don't need to exacerbate this problem by taking over more non ethnically Turkish lands.

[@abctutnichtweh1]

@@jedrzejgorski5437 Islamophobia.... Its weird you always get the same response if you vaguely criticize regressive policies in muslim countries. It means nothing anymore

[@goinggoinggone535]

The people of Turkey deserve the policies they have voted for.

[@masterp401]

Cry harder, why you outsider care about who rules Turkiye? doesnt fit your agenda?😂

[@goinggoinggone535]

@@masterp401 I care because I'm a human being, and watching the suffering of people by their leaders due to manipulation of people by religion is always a horrid thing, no matter the country. Yet the people of Turkey decided to destroy their own economic future just so they could hate gay people. This is nonsense, and you know it.

[@monsterboomer8051]

@@masterp401 I like how neutral statement makes simps like you go nuts :D You just see whatever you want in it, right?

[@artimkalash3347]

@@masterp401 because Turkey keeps building mosques here xD pls stop , they are empty anyway

[@masterp401]

@@artimkalash3347 🤣 hindutva fairy tales🤣 Ashvamedhaaa right? what kind of "God" asks for Ashvamedha? thats insane!

[@Gruyntake]

We prefer gold than dollar, thank you

[@SeeLasSee]

Expect a lot of complaining from the Erdogan regime about the dollar’s and the euro’s financial hegemony harming Turkey. Never mind that this was a self inflicted injury. Completely unnecessary.

[@marcodena4679]

100% economic collapse chances

[@Firepowered]

Turks will defend this collapse as a 4-D chess move, somehow

[@souravjaiswal-jr4bj]

You need to change politicians after some time just like you change your underwear. It will get rotten.

[@monsterboomer8051]

Also old. Like seriously. Why is every big country politician and those who run against them extremely old senile zombie? These people can't keep up with anything. Stupid Boomers.

[@ardagenc4674]

You are wrong man some people just want to leave in their shit cause they will claim there wasnt underwears before so its all good

[@tonysu8860]

Amusing that every country that can't manage its finances in the world today isn't running to China (or have and been denied). Their new go-to when turned down by reputable financial institutions like the IMF and world bank is the Middle East. I wonder why Saudi Arabia was willing to provide those billions to Erdogan in the run up to the election, because they thout it was preferable to the opposition in power? Anyone lending to Turkey nowadays has to know the likelihood of getting repaid are slim and not.. Same thing applies to BRICS inviting Saudi Arabia and the Emirates to bankroll BRICS projects and a new currency. A fool and his money are soon parted.

[@monsterboomer8051]

This new magical "currency" will be 100% chinese RMB. Just watch as Xi takes over all of BRICS. Just watch.

[@TheEvertw]

They are buying political influence and leverage. That is not foolish.

[@randomlygeneratedname7171]

Suadi Arabia gains nothing from this but good relations. Iraq is what happens if you go against US wishes and isolated with bad neighbours willing to act as barracks and airbases.

[@yudeok413]

Erdogan was running interference EVERYWHERE in the middle east for a few years to show he's a boss. It was the same strategy he used with EU regarding refugee, Greece, Nato expansion and the US regarding NATO arms, Syria and Russia. Saudi Arabia have been paying him to sit down and stop meddling. His problem now is that the situation evolved already so it will take time and money to ramp up his interference again, plus he's broke. The Saudis will want something tangible this time in exchange because his nuisance power is diminished. They will be likely to team up with the IMF, same reform. Contrary to western prejudices Saudis are not dumb. Charity is one thing, and they are generous, but business is all business and that's whole other thing.

[@aydemironur35]

So many Arabs getting Turkey citizenship and buying gorgeous lands from goverment by paying so little for last couple years. Before the election, the other alliance have promised to cancel those citizenships and get those lands (which was goverments property) back. That's why Arabs supported Erdoğan that much. I don't understand those guys either. They have money, they don't wanna live in Arab countries, they want to be free on a secular country. But they trying to turn our country to like theirs, at least they support Erdoğan who is aiming that.

[@G4nd4lf]

My view of this: 1 scenario 15%, 2 scenario 5%, 3 scenario 30%, 4 scenario with 40% being some combination, when Turkey liraization turns out to be more effectie then predicted, some loans are acquired, rate is stabilized at curreny level and some spending cut is done which leads to some form of stabilization with still hight inflation about 50%.

[@NorwayChallenge]

I hope the people who voted for him have fun with the economy.

[@abdolrahmanhamed2821]

Like your own European puppet economy that was being controlled by USA i guess ?

[@minglee9288]

almost 60% of turkish germans voted for erdogan probably won the election for erdogan. now turkish citizen have to live with this for the next 5yrs. tbf most turkish germans voted for him to have cheap vacations when theyre there for a month in a year.

[@ardagenc4674]

People that voted for him doesnt even know what economy means 😅

[@abdolrahmanhamed2821]

​@@ardagenc4674 Actually yes they know what economy means other way they will not choose Erdogan to be their Prime minister from 20 years and a President from 9 years ago,unlike you and your friend.They (the Turks who voted for Erdogan who you alongside your western media called him a dictator and autocrat before the elections even begins) didn't want a fool western puppet candidate to be their President

[@erenucar1486]

We have told them about this fot years. Only way they'll learn is they have to live through it.

[@LucasSchimmel]

He raised the interest rates.

[@ataguner4740]

Aahhh my lovely country with the best geograpy, within 2 countinents, in the center of the world! When will you get rid of ignorance, millions of imigrants, bad leaders, bad exports, bad use of energy, bad education, getting worse life quality for poor people each day… We miss you 😢 ❤❤Atatürk❤❤ Problems fixed 100 years ago still exist because of bad politicians😢 SECULAR DEMOCRATIC 🇹🇷❤️

[@hamlet557]

"in the center of the world!" Someone seems to believe that the earth is flat and hasn't looked at a globe yet. Or, as he admits, bad education.

[@BenersantheBread]

@@hamlet557 It's a figure of speech dumbass. Though I'm not a fan of this level of nationalism myself

[@hsd0g]

EUROPEANS IT IS TIME WE GO TO TURKEY WHERE WE GET 25 TIMES OUR POUNDS

[@sachin2842]

Very sad for turkey 🦃🦆

[@narniadan]

No, we''re happy, or majority of people in Turkiye. Looking at your face , you''re sad.

[@davidgoggins679]

*This Comment Was Deleted By The Turkish Government*

[@kahbebizans1713]

We are lost 🤬

[@JitzyJT]

I'm not Turkish but don't you think it's not sustainable to have a 6 party coalition

[@____1395]

@@JitzyJT Its not even a coalition, just trying to get rid of the mobster thief that hurts everyone.

[@mhmdshady8986]

They flipped the deficit to a surplus, hit record reserves, and even kept growth and employment relatively stable, defying most projections. It's like they cooked up a unique economic dish, blending elements of different scenarios with some bold spices. While your analysis from before still offers valuable insights, this unexpected turn shows Turkey's got some extra tricks up their sleeve. However, it's too early to call it a culinary masterpiece. Challenges like high inflation and political uncertainties are still simmering, and the long-term recipe needs careful evaluation. So, cheers to the current progress, but let's keep a close eye on how this economic feast unfolds!

[@Lider_Bs.]

We lost bro we lost ...

[@masoudmardani]

Sorry to hear that from Iran 😔

[@Hellodumbbitchs]

we love dumb people here in the Middle East

[@abdullahimahamudbile]

You didn't Lose bro. Your Dignity is Far Greater than a Bread and Water!!!!

[@Hellodumbbitchs]

@@abdullahimahamudbile what the hell are you smoking ?

[@dragonfire3727]

​@@abdullahimahamudbile lol say that when you starve

[@BGRYT]

9:25 Don’t you know? Erdogan said “we paid debts to IMF and this IMF nightmare won’t come back again.”

[@ssa6227]

IMF is slavery. Besides Turkey needs structural change not band aid solutions like interest rates or IMF. These will only complicate problems and leave Turkey a failed puppet of the West. Look at Pakistan removed Imran Khan and now puppets are grinding the people.

[@diehardmetalhead3797]

And he said "IMF wants yo borrow money from us". Day dreamer amk.

[@sametyilmaz1543]

@@diehardmetalhead3797 Every 5 years IMF members renew their subscribtions with SDR. SDR from my understanding is holding set amount of money in deposit at central bank, in case of potential withdrawal from other central banks. Basically IMF uses other central banks SDR's to print money then gives it to another member. IMF itself dosen't hold the money it only says; in case of emergency hold this much amount for me and I'll take it from you. In addition, It shouldn't be payimg back since looks like a member fee so no borrowing.

[@onuroskay8613]

He famous with his returns.

[@sawtooth808]

@@diehardmetalhead3797 🤣🤣🤣 is right

[@rashid8646]

I've been out on the streets of Istanbul filming... the energy is crazy. He really is a massively popular leader. The economic question isn't everything, even if it's usually that way in secular, democratic states. But it is more than half of the picture. I'm very impressed by your channel's insightfulness and timely releases.

[@JitzyJT]

Populist leaders are like gods.....Turkey is not an exception

[@broken_abi6973]

It's not just the economy that matters in secular, democratic states. The embarrassing handling of the earthquake in Turkey would be enough to take him out of power, if he was in a really democratic country with free media.

[@RedbadofFrisia]

Economy isn't everything, until common people go hungry.

[@rashid8646]

@@broken_abi6973 people really misunderstand the earthquake issue - yes, corruption was involved in lack of preparation for such a disaster, but the reason that Turks didn't blame Erdogan for it is A) they don't trust that the opposition would have done any better given its own corruption and B) cutting corners on safety standards is something that the people of these region WANTED, to keep proces lower and growth up for their regions businesses. Unfortunately Turkish people are a bit foolhardy... perhaps its a middle income nation attitude - they will sacrifice a lot to remain internationally competitive - though I imagine some other mid income governments would have acted more responsibly in this situation. It isn't just the government that put money over people in this case - Turks preferred to gamble against the odds of disaster in order to cut costs during a booming (and then flagging economy).

[@broken_abi6973]

@@rashid8646 A) If I had to choose between a party that could but likely wouldn't have done better over a party that was confirmed to have done terribly, I don't think I would hesitate that much. B) This only shows that the central government was weak at setting regulations and safety standards and just preferred to let the corruption of regional governments win. They basically closed an eye. So, I totally reject the idea that the central government didnt share part of the blame.

[@guydreamr]

This is what happens when you try to run a country by holy writ rather than modern economic theory.

[@MHG796]

Lmfao,he is atheist, he knows that collapsing lira will boom the exports and his rich friends will get richer(because of low labor cost) by the expense of average citizien, he knows what exactly he is doing.

[@mistyfaderia]

Turkish conservatives will never understand this.

[@nickverschoore4351]

What would Turkey be so much better had Atatürk still ruled....

[@jevizcipanter]

"They have dollars, we have Allah" funny... I thought Turkiye was supposed to be a secular country.

[@richertrichgreen4023]

Bir turk olarak söylüyorum bizim ekonomimizi bizden daha iyi analiz etmişsiniz 👍👍

[@brokenarrow5590]

Good news.

[@cringeboi66cringus99]

If you are too happy to see this I would like to ruin your happiness. Bad news friend. Erdoğan appointed Mehmet Şimşek as minister of Economy. Mehmet Şimşek is famous for being a competend and highly skilled economist and someone that critisized Erdoğans approach to Economy. So that means Turkish Economy began to fix its problems.

[@kostas0352]

​@@cringeboi66cringus99 one economist cannot save an economy this big, the inflation problem continues, investors have left and government still isn't trusted about real GDP numbers

[@BenersantheBread]

@@cringeboi66cringus99 Kaçıncı ekonomist?

[@ligdjumvidja8294]

Economic crisis is big concern but there are also other possible apocalypse scenarios for Turkey on the horizon. Good luck to people who live in Turkey because it will only get worse from here.

[@Eoin-B]

I was talking to one Turkish person who voted for Erdogan who said some things are more important than the economy, like keeping the country from splitting up. Which I think is insane because nothing screams secession more than an economic collapse. Look at the USSR and Yugoslavia. Another said that he showed that keeping on the course stabilised the lira lately and he knows what he's doing and said that sometimes raising interest rates doesn't work. So the economists could be wrong. So you see their mindset, blind loyalty for some reason. It must be how their new frames things.

[@ligdjumvidja8294]

@@Eoin-B Exactly , the blind loyalty made him win once more. If you ask me this country has never been this close to a dissolution like in Yugoslavia. People are so polarized(as local I experience this even in family , almost every conversation revolves around economics and politics) , economy collapsed and civil unrest might occur any moment.

[@Eoin-B]

@@ligdjumvidja8294 Good luck to you for the next 5 years, whats worse when the country comes to its senses the economy will get even worse when they raise interest rates to stop inflation and raise taxes to bring down government spending. Ireland went through austerity brought on by our IMF bailout and the EU. But we bounced back better than ever after a few years, though we are paying 2% more tax on our wages forever. So it'll be a very rough 10 years ahead and I hope your not so mad at the austerity that you bring back that dipshit :)

[@madonebo9249]

@@Eoin-B he is a moron. Literally our borders are open to any illegal immigrants that are potential criminals. That's the main threat of the country, not the economy. Does that Turk live in Europe? Turks in Europe who vote for Erdogan are freaking morons and have no idea about the country's problems. They visit Turkey only once a year, and they claim they know the country better than mainlanders.

[@exfinen_2919]

​@OsamaBinLadensSecondGirlfriend why is interest rate in US is as low as 0% but other country is told to raise interest-rate? US uses unorthodox strategy just like what Turkeyi trying to do. Japan also do use 0% interest-rate before and look now did anything bad happen? Nothing will happen, 5 years will pass by in Turkeyi and there will be another election like normal.

[@loudora]

Four things... 1. Turkey has a massive unrecorded economy. Official GDP per capita numbers are underrepresented. Read: Everyone still has an iPhone in their ass pocket, including the guy that does my yard work at my Summer house, and his wife and two boys. Sure, income inequality exists but it is not as bad as it seems on record. 2. Turkish inflation is not happening because of an "overheating economy" despite what your ECON 102 Intro to Macroeconomics text book says, regurgitating the good ol' keynesian theory designed for a perfectly functioning, laissez-faire free market economy. Look at the unemployment numbers. They are high. Instead, it is because of its oversized reliance on foreign imports. Energy, tech, agricultural raw materials, etc. As such, the "orthodox" strategy of cooling off the economy AS A WHOLE by raising the interest rates isn't the best idea here. Instead, killing the excessive consumption on dollar denominated stuff is. That's why cars, gasoline, tech gadgets, etc. are significantly more expensive in Turkey than elsewhere in dollar terms. Why? Import and luxury taxes! Instead of the kill-it-all interest rate hike, they are thruttling consumption by taxing the shit out of dollar goods. Feels right to me. 3. Low lira makes exports more competitive. Turkey exports a lot and not just tea and hazelnuts. Maybe that extra profit doesnt immediately get into the hands of the working class but it does eventually and is good for the economy. 4. IMF isn't a charity. There is zero trust in Turkey to IMF because of their troubled history. Turkish public and the administration see it as a political entity under direct control of those countries that fund it; not naming names, we all know who they are. So, if a country is interested in maintaining some degree of political autonomy from the global powers to be, IMF isn't necessarily her friend. The conventional wisdom of knocking on their door when going gets rough means giving political concessions to those who control it. This school of thought is part of their "Turkish Century" doctrine.

[@harshjain3122]

I really strongly agree with the first point that yes, higher interest rates crush a lot of things however, the only long term solution is to have local industries which can be an alternative to the things which are highly imported. What they are doing now, can't be the long term strategy.

[@loudora]

@@harshjain3122 And this is precisely what they are doing. Domestically produced automobile (TOGG, electric), defense industry, and intensified gas and oil exploration efforts are examples. It takes decades of intentionality to undo that dependence.

[@TheGradeFootballer]

4:40 😂😂😂😂 Tbh, world runs on economic policies and diplomacies, but they run on social policies like religion. It is bound to clash sometime in the future of humanity, terrorism is the symptom.

[@Shkodrani7]

Water sleeps but enemies never sleeps, Long life to best leader Erdogan 🔥🔥🤲🏻☝️

[@narniadan]

The opposition brings someone who couldn't even run SSK, lost every election 12 times 😂😂😂😂 and even after losing 12 times still on his seat, and these people calling Erdogan dictator and us not being intelligent. Long Live Erdogan.

[@e.e-dn4oh]

​@@narniadanlol ak trol

[@KuboOnYt]

Turkey should never accept IMF intervention they are wayyyyy to risky and they are terrible, this will cause a economic depression to happen

[@Loundsify]

Worked in the UK in the 1970s.

[@KuboOnYt]

@@Loundsify that was a miracle, with turkey the people are suffering already, anymore would lead to a revolution

[@narniadan]

That's what the USA want, that's why the USA has been trying to bring the puppet.

[@dansolo5854]

“They have dollar we have Allah” Is Allah going to rain down food and medicine when turkey runs out of foreign reserves?

[@widodoakrom3938]

Lol yeah

[@ardagenc4674]

Yeah god is gonna send us the next prophit that will turn air into food and beer thats what happens when you are a true muslim that just steals and pray

[@gray8091]

Provider of rizq is Allah,one outht to to have tawakkul after doing what is necessary

[@QUINTUSMAXIMUS]

I guess it will be 21 TR to 1 USD by next week. 17 cents away. It was 19.7 a few weeks ago. Now it's 20.83. You have so many of these "German" Turks celebrating the win of an anti-West, anti-democrtic, anti-Germany leader.

[@klariskb4497]

Turkey is done

[@CMarkem]

Nice pass me a drumstick i love turkey

[@xamsedalabay6809]

Western world hagomeny is done.

[@serebii666]

@@xamsedalabay6809 "hagomeny" 😂😂

[@klariskb4497]

@@xamsedalabay6809 your name shows and says enough. Stop mixing religion with politics

[@kennethadler7380]

​@@xamsedalabay6809 so is the lira

[@user-bw7oe7gf9p]

Did you pre-produce this video? Amazing job, thanks for the video!

[@sagagis]

probably yes. I also imagine him recording an alternative version where the opposition won

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

He's said in another comment that he made two slightly different versions.

[@serena-yu]

I heard people who have travelled in Turkey complain: the local people take only USD or Euros if they find you are a foreign visitor. No one wanted a payment with Lira.

[@saeedeyvazinejadfirouzsala6319]

You are just repeating poor words as Erdogan's religious belives about the economy etc. It shows that you have superficial info about Erdogan's party's policy. Dislike as I did not know anything new form your video.

[@Naxt366]

fo sure, Erdogan won't slip into poverty by trying playing with their Turks money

[@juzores1]

Love how this victory make these imperialists weep, best days ever.

[@narniadan]

Probably this guy is paid by imperialist to make this video. The usual the US games, always.

[@kennethadler7380]

They voted for this

[@abdullahimahamudbile]

Yeah, you wanted a western Puppet, but you got the Puppet's Owner🗿

[@dragonfire3727]

​​​@@abdullahimahamudbile they got a Russian puppet, way worse than being a western puppets since you would not have high standards of living and human rights

[@narniadan]

@@abdullahimahamudbile Well said! They enjoy puppeteer's show.

[@kennethadler7380]

@@narniadan enjoy your Chinese owned puppet

[@emirhankartal1230]

Turkish central bank announced the incensement on the interest rates, So probabilities changed. This new situation requires a new video :)

[@yasamakbudegil]

But people are still happy with the condition according to they selected erdogan again. So, no more to say, good luck to turkish people with another 10 million refugees.

[@leandrokataoka2435]

Will you be updating the situation on Turkey? Thanks for the content!

[@lu881]

I feel like after the results of this election, the ANC will also win in 2024.

[@FictionHubZA]

Nah. The anc is definitely going below 50% They would only win if they get over 40% by bribing smaller parties. That would only stall their death not stop it. The qnc is hated all around. Unlike erdogan who appeals to religion and reactionaries. The anc hasnothjng to and the poor are tired of small checks. Many more want jobs now.

[@Twishcopacola]

Turkey and Egypt are a bit similar but look at Egypts currency even though they increased their interest yet the currency went from 16 to almost 40 in the black market in almost 3 years. I think the lost in budget to interest payments that produce no good is better used to increase lending for businesses.

[@patnutoris4054]

Interest rate have little influence on inflation when the basics of the econoy is poor. In Turkey's case, they have too much energy imports which is driving the inflation while little value added industry. The primary solution to inflation in Turkey is a better tax system, education and production industry.

[@abdullahcosgun]

It is not just the interest rates. Economy is a social science. Trust lies beneath the value of the currency and neither Turkish nor Egyptian people trusts their government. What the governments are doing is very shady and value of the currency is going down due to that

[@عمر-ل9ع2ي]

In Egypt our situation is completely different than Turkey actually, our military dictator is just a western puppet that has no interest whatsoever in improving the economy, and is more interested in borrowing money and sending it outside the country

[@narniadan]

sorry but not even close. First, we're not the USA government puppet and also we've chosen our leader unlike Egypt!

[@AlephOmega-zy5qs]

How much money is Egypt printing to build that new capital in the middle of the desert?

[@leandrovitaver7438]

Please do a Argentina video sometime! It's a really intresting and problematic economy (especially if you live here).

[@SuperBlueroad]

Last 20 years you guys say the same thing, but Turkey still running well. Look at Europe people think 10 minutes to buy a cucumber,

[@taab84]

i see people are more worriying about Ordogan election than turkish economy, like turkey economy was wonderful before erdogan era

[@kevlee80rudals]

Turkeye deserves the government they have. Anything that happens from Erdogan’s policies is on the people of Turkeye, good or bad, they deserve it.

[@billsykes5392]

You forgot that Erdogan could peg the Lira to Bitcoin. At least the Lira would be more stable 🤪

[@noelcollins2355]

What do you mean by peg? Do you even know what you are talking about? What you just wrote is equivalent of someone saying Zimbabwe should just peg their currency to the US dollar and that will solve their inflation problem. The value of a currency has critical factors that determines whether it rises or falls. pegging to bitcoin or whatever is not the solution!!!

[@kth6736]

They would need btc to maintain the peg. Which costs $$$. Read some economics before making an economic joke. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

LOL

[@narniadan]

Little kid

[@adhamosman7425]

What I am wondering is how Turkey could have a Lebanese scenario. Lebanon has a debt to GDP ratio above 100%, it is nearly impossible for it to borrow any money. However Turkey only has a debt to GDP ratio of around 32%. So although not ideal, it has plenty of breathing room to borrow money which it could use to stabilize the lira

[@Patangy]

If the government borrowed more money that means they would be spending more and creating additional demand, thereby increasing inflation. Increasing the debt to GDP ratio doesn't help stabilize the situation in this case.

[@adhamosman7425]

@@Patangy but the inflation here isn’t necessarily caused so much by an increase in demand as as much the depreciation of the currency

[@Patangy]

@@adhamosman7425 It can be caused by both things at the same time, doesn't have to be only one or the other.

[@ayhankaracaoglu6845]

These are all wishful thinking this guy blows. There is uncontrollable amount of foreign currency arriving in Türkiye although they try to create a chaos.

[@acy5836]

Yes but you are forgetting the amount of gdp difference because Turkey is bigger. The amount of loan is going to be riskier.

[@hakimboxing6672]

Erdogan did raise the interest rate. The exports are heading fast into a surplus as well. So far it’s working. Also, Arabs aren’t going to let go of turkey and let it collapse. It’s not Pakistan.

[@TheWskiller]

Did you also make a video for when the oppent won? Show us that one😂😂😂

[@MoneyMacro]

Yes. I did, hehe. The problems would be the same. But, the percentages in the scenario analysis would be very different, having a much higher likelihood for the interest rate hike - IMF loan - austerity scenario.

[@FictionHubZA]

Time to bet against the Lira. The profit is going to be insane.

[@ardagenc4674]

I would suggest to wait until september, the summer will probably be relatively stable cause of the tourism and stimulates from governments officials own wealth to make it look like everything is okay but in september yeah bet everything against it