U.S.-China Under Xi Jinping: From Strategic Collision to Common Purpose?

U.S.-China Under Xi Jinping: From Strategic Collision to Common Purpose?
Date: Monday, April 13, 2015 - 06:00PM
More video info at iop.harvard.edu/node/1579
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Panelists Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Saich, Director of the Ash Center, and the Belfer Center’s Meghan O’Sullivan joined moderator Graham Allison for a panel discussion to reflect on the future of US and China relations. The panelists discussed Rudd's "U.S.-China 21" paper, analyzing the increased leadership power of President Xi Jinping, and the importance of a common strategic narrative to ensure stable, long-term Sino-American relations.

[@NuestraPatriaGrande]

Realistically both China and the US want to have great deals for corporations. The only difference is that China benefits its state-owned Companies. The US in both internal as well as externally only favors the large private billionaire corporations. The other difference is that plutocracies of the west, including the US, tend to only help themselves to the detriment of the 99% of their populations while the beneficiaries in China are the Chinese People. This last difference establishes an all of China approach to its growth and benefit as opposed to a Western model that makes the rich richer and the rest of us poorer. China is mechanizing and smart cities are actually working. 5G technologies and artificial intelligence are part of a Chinese innovative movement that together with infrastructure building makes China the leader in trade and development. As China develops its consumer market it will become the world's leader in imports. That will in turn foment further expansion of internal infrastructure as well as greater connectivity networks and capacity building within the developing world. Presently The first quarter GDP increase is 18%. As China helps the developing world in reaching normalcy through its vaccines, the trade from these countries will increase as much as the goodwill that China is establishing. It is not in China's interest to exploit other countries like the US and the West do. China presents a purely business approach without forced loyalties. China is filling the vacuum left by US greed and gunboat diplomacy. As developing nations continue to resist US sanctions, they are not alone. China will step in. China will help out! In terms of sensitive issues involving the restoration of territories stolen under Western colonialoismChina knows that these matters will stand the test of time. There is no hurry. If the West wants to press for war China already knows as a result of Vietnam, Korea, that they will defeat any attempt as they have done before. CHINA IS ALWAYS ON THE SIDE OF PEACE. BUT IT IS ALWAYS PREPARED FOR WAR!! The best course for the US is to abandon gunboat diplomacy and unilateral actions. Then, a G2 permanent meeting can from a business perspective, establish guidelines for the creation of a new world order that is equitable to all countries and one that gives The United Nations more power to govern over the rest of humanity. The sooner we become a planetary concern, the sooner that we will be able to abandon nuclear weapons and concentrate on making our planet our heaven on earth!!

[@tl4172]

Well written. The western democracies do not realized the CCP morphed into a fusion of socialist, meritocracy, market capitalists ideology. The pragmatic re-education of the Han into 100 years of shame, and the better quality of life defined by CCP propaganda, has created nationalism to rise in China. The economic infiltration and soft power bribery and coercion used by the CCP around the world is being exposed. Trust in China falls, she does not care. The US is happiest while united against an adversary. Russia will be used to distract, while the CCP accelerates it's power and influence in economic power America. CCP central bank will back a new standard to purchase oil in Yuan. That will signal the run on the US dollar.

[@NuestraPatriaGrande]

@Akimbo Soulassassin - You May be right. But I expect that China will use wisdom, great governance, and best practices to account for Western ignorance, hatred, and greed!!

[@tl4172]

@@NuestraPatriaGrande Chinese Dynasties did not trust the merchant class, so controlled all aspects of citizens economy. For 1000's of years the poor Han scrambled for a meager living while a wealthy royalty and elite ruled. The Western economic zones in China provided the capital to raise the poor out of poverty. The CCP took full advantage of the economic boom, and used every financial private western corporation investment or agreement to gain power and wealth. The CCP Elites send their children to Western economies for education, experience, and relationships. The CCP has economically infiltrated Western society and strategically subverted industry sectors through out the Western world. The One Party State is totalitarian, and effective on the global economic level. Western Societies are aware, passing laws, and have realized the cold war never ended for the CCP. The Pivot to China gave more to the CCP, than citizens of western democracies ever received in return. Greedy US corporations are racing to get woke, before the US government makes them broke. The releasing of a pandemic virus , CCP economic coercion of UN States , territorial expansionist, hostage diplomacy, re-education camps, and supporting the bad actor countries fomenting terrorists, will be the Legacy of the Chinese Belt and Road. The US is a bully, so is China. One uses bullets, the other uses a dollar, to attack it's enemies.

[@NuestraPatriaGrande]

@@tl4172 I am certain that we both use the same sources. Yet derive different conclusions due to how we identify ourselves! I can take Chinese feudalism as a fact without concluding that they lacked the entrepreneurial spirit. Quite to the contrary, Chinese capitalism is more intensive than western neoliberalism. Chinese socialism rests on democracy at the village level with meritocratic governance at regional and national levels. China is at the beginning of a development of a social democratic meritocracy in progress. It is in China’s interest to promote multilateral multipolar world with the UN at the center instead of a hegemonic world with the US or China at the center! The US has set a pattern of gunboat diplomacy with unilateral use of sanctions that are usually illegal in terms of existing international norms!! I will not go into the areas of internal concerns in both western colonialism or the Chinese integration of ethnic minorities, as you know very well that these conspiracy theories are unfounded.

[@tl4172]

@@NuestraPatriaGrande It is in China’s interest to promote multilateral multipolar world with the UN at the center instead of a hegemonic world with the US or China at the center! I totally agree that control of the UN is of the utmost priority to the CCP, and China has used what ever means both legal or illegal. The state planned infiltration, intelligence theft, and economic subversion the CCP has employed through out the entire world is on public record. What ever the CCP felt necessary to do, to achieve that shared hegemonic world control, is available to all non Chinese citizens on the internet. CCP Hegemonic control of domestic information, education, and only the approved party doctrine, that denies any other narrative to be allowed in China, captures the Han society's version of reality. The Chinese integration of ethnic minorities, is well established by over 90 years of CCP policy control and is evidenced in Chinas internal migration stats in Tibet, Hong Kong and in previous Muslim majority areas of China. Best estimates confirmed by independent scientists from around the globe reveal that 40-70 million Chinese died, during the socialist cultural revolution. Western economic integration provided financial capital that developed the utopia of a one party state control, and did undeniably raise hundreds of millions of Han out of abject poverty. The greater benefit is seen through out the success, and healthy well being of the over all vast Chinese population. . The ability to control the behavior of over a billion individuals using software learning algorithms, is also being played out on the world's stage. I watch in fascination at the progress, and the extent a totalitarian social democratic meritocracy is willing to sacrifice citizens. The one child policy alone probably killed 100 million unborn female Chinese citizens. The CCP provided ultrasounds and " morning after" medication so enthusiastically, and universally distributed liberally by the Chinese capitalists with a more intensive entrepreneurial spirit.

[@frankh.5378]

One thing I got out of this is how impressed I was with Ms. O'Sullivan in articulating our U.S. stance.

[@jianx20011]

So far China has done much more benefits for mildest and Africa too

[@rdadp230]

from the video content, it seems it was recorded in 2015 and only posted now : ) but most arguments are still sound and insightful

[@jingyin5274]

Date: Monday, April 13, 2015 - 06:00PM

[@geoff9858]

Some of the question make me realise that 1. US thinks it the only country in the world and owns all the rest. If China goes to a country to trade or invest what is the fuss? 2. US thinks it is the only country in the world that must be number 1 in economy. 3. US thinks everyone have to "kow tow" to US if not, will sanction or try to do a "regime" change. 4. US human rights and democracy pretenses are there for all who are "awake" to see. 5. Etc etc

[@andrewmboweni8285]

rest in peace his royal majesty king Goodwill Zwelithini

[@geoff9858]

Question is any strategic agreement between USA will be limited to a 4 year time frame cycle. Look at the JCPOA as the latest of many agreements

[@roblanchi5159]

There are certain measures that will not change the direction that is forming the Cino American policy. China is rising and the United States is declining, and that is a major factor which forms the relationship between this two country. "Trust" is not even applicable in such a situation. China and America both know that, by passing of time, the difference of power grows in Chinese interest.

[@lennyung6042]

Great programs 👍💖🙏🙏🙏

[@stevenmurphy8864]

Very smart man with a EXCELLENT voice of knowledge and integrity 👏👏👏

[@winstonlai4063]

very smart man indeed all he has to do is pretend he is the china expert talk BS about china make some money just like con man gordon chang as simple as that

[@shushi4614]

Great panel and great recommendations! Just a shame none was adopted by the policymakers

[@jianx20011]

US never be able to stable Mideast only made it worse

[@HLC64]

This panel is academic. But the policy makers are sing the song of the people.... Luckily or unluckily the Chinese people sing the song of development but the opposition develop the art to threaten war and enjoying the benefits of Chinese development...cheap goods.. So how will it ends?

[@mateusmahumane8990]

The times are different. We're not in Thucidid's time. In his time there was no WMD, therefore, the stakes are different. Both Chinese and Americans love their lives

[@PhiloSurfer]

Spot on. Graham took 500 years of history and recorded 16 cases of Super power challenges, of which 12 out of 16 ended in war, or a probability of 75%. Two points of objection here. First, ancient history/mentality is unlikely to be applicable to present and future trends. Second, the invention of nuclear weapons. If Graham has used a timeline of last 50 years instead of last 500 years, then 3 out of the 4 emerging power challenges ended in no war, or a probability of 25% of a war. The threat of mutually assured destruction is very real with the advent of nuclear weapons and other WMDs. Hence, policy makers will not be that trigger happy.

[@44bett]

@@PhiloSurfer Let's hope.

[@henrym5043]

It is too sad the US started the new cold world. To deal with the globle problem two countries should cooperate.

[@jazldazl9193]

#whereispengshuai

[@QuizmasterLaw]

Though Rudd of course speaks fluent Chines even he, I fear, lacks the foundation in Maoism needed for an accurate comprehension of the challenges China presents. Imagining a peaceful rising China has been the delusion of the past 30 years. The results speak for themselves. Rather than asking yourselves how you might help China reform into a liberal democracy (which will NEVER happen) you ought instead be asking yourself how you can contain China militarily and compete better economically, for China is a mercantilist state capitalist dictatorship. You have imagined yourselves, with well meaning wishful thinking, into renewed great power conflict with an EFFICIENT dictatorship. The Chinese people and Chinese civilization have very powerful and attractive ideals. Though I do not expect China to be able to develop international institutions of any kind whatsoever, since dictatorships lack stable institutitions and are rightly distrusted by all, i do expect the CCP/PRC to continue to outmaneuver the U.S. elites tactically speaking. You see, a certain hunger in life is a powerful motivator. China could win. By the way, did you know? You are in a space race to Mars, and China might well win that. Likewise, what if I were wrong, and China proves able to elaborate international institutions and stable long term relations? It's not like B&RI or BRICS are illogical and incoherent. Sure, they will be vectors of corruption right? What if I am wrong should be a question haunting the U.S. elites who have presided over 30 years of failed China policies and 20 years of failed middle east policies. Time to clean house.

[@WhiskeyFatimah]

Things are changing now with China beginning to take Palestinian cause and interest more prominently. But the way the politics are in US where the 95% of population are largely absent and ignorant but only good for manipulation by the big business and military lobbies weeks before election, things are not going to change much in US narrative. I just can't imagine many more than a handful men on the street in New York understand nor care any of these subject on debate here. Worst still are those met in Sydney or country town streets. Worst still are our politicians who interests are better served by exploiting such ignorance and disinterest and remain at the disposal of the big business and military conglomerates and jump on any opportunities to support their benefactors to send more children(not theirs anyway) to be gun fodders in those international military conflicts.

[@jimrule8652]

China doing a lot better than Australia Perth Australia has home and homeless and poverty and woman are lot safer on the street in China and this goes Hong Kong human rights are bad like Australia ,and also you will find the be China culture and harmony It is important to understand you will find these help to reduce drug and alcohol ,the west has a lot to learn from China

[@seeseay7993]

Every one is making money by talking about China, including Kevin Rudd，LOL

[@sucui3285]

But few ppl can talk as eloquent as his

[@kamarudding1726]

lllllllpp

[@Hahaha41241]

Chinese aren't invited in the talk.lol

[@yanyannyaany]

I feel like Xi's ambition is to challenge king of kings, cyrus the great the messiah

[@hydroac9387]

Having read Mr. Rudd's 2015 report I have the obvious question: why in the world would the USA voluntarily cede its position to China and then be subject to China as the new hegemon? After all, China is a authoritarian police state that does not share Western values and it is increasingly clear that China desires to impose its own "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" on the world. Chinese cultural/language/religious genocide against millions of Tibetan Buddhists and Uyghur Muslims shows that China is nothing more than neo-colonialists/imperialist power in addition to having a deep streak of intolerance and racism. Chinese Wolf Warrior diplomacy has justifiably alarmed neighbors and set off alarm bells in Europe and the USA. We also see with the current alliance between Russia and China and China's complete endorsement of Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine and Russia's reducing Ukrainian cities to rubble that China is perfectly OK with violating national sovereignty and re-drawing national borders. President Xi's shameless hypocrisy in actively promoting the destruction of a peaceful country like Ukraine while promoting “indivisible security" of nations in the recently announced Global Security Initiative (GSI) is simply breathtaking. All this said, Mr. Rudd does have a good point that there needs to be a strategic dialog between China and the USA. Perhaps a template should be the Soviet Union-American strategic framework that was developed during the Cold War, whereby there was regular communication, arms control, and avoidance of direct conflict. Regarding American-Chinese engagement, a strong China does not need to export to the enormous American consumer market. The USA and Western allies need to strategically and peacefully withdraw economic, military, and research ties to China. We've seen the chaos to Western supply chains due to China's extreme COVID Zero Tolerance lockdowns. We're also seeing that China is no longer the low-cost manufacturer due to extraordinary increases in labor costs due to demographic decline. America took 40 years to intertwine itself with China so re-shoring manufacturing to America, American allies, and friendly nations would take many years, but the benefit is that neither China nor the USA would have economic entanglements. Chinese will then be free to pursue its own goals. When the West and China disentangle from each other then there can be a real contest of ideas. China and its allies Russia and North Korea can try to sell their police states and authoritarian-economies to others in the world. The much more prosperous Western economies can make their best case for the liberal economic order founded by America and institutionalized by the West. May the best system win.