UBER DISRUPTED BY WAYMO? UBER STOCK CHEAP?

[@unrivaled]

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[@wernerhartwich3303]

Your analysis makes sense, but you make the mistake of seeing the USA from your narrow lens. I live in Europe and it took years before Uber could even gain a foothold because of the taxis. I don't see any autonomous cars driving around here for many, many years because of politics. Currently Waymo is in individual cities in the USA, even if it were approved throughout the USA, the world is bigger than the USA. In Europe in particular, there will be no autonomous vehicles for the next 5 to 15 years. And that's not because of the technology, that will be there, it's because of the politics, the union lobby and the acceptance of the people. It will happen, yes, but it will take forever and Uber has plenty of time to come up with something. a second point that is not directly related. I've never seen a Waymo because I don't live in the USA. But aren't the cars quickly damaged by vandalism? I live in Berlin, a car like this here on a dark street and it doesn't look nice anymore. I think it could end up like the electric scooters. They are now being banned again in many cities in Europe because people simply throw them somewhere and break them. But even if they come to the big cities, what about the small towns? I don't see any Waymo's driving around autonomously in medium-sized cities. I see the threat from Tesla as higher. But if you think about it further, there are counterarguments here too: 1. The technology is not ready yet, and neither is the regulation 2. Does Tesla even allow me to use my car as a taxi and earn money with it 3. yes damn do I want my car to be used as a taxi by people with all the bad things that can happen in it. An old saying goes: never lend women, finances or vehicles

[@unrivaled]

Really thoughtful. Thank you for sharing 😊

[@sumgi1537]

very true. to my it was an market emotional response that emotional investors sold uber stock and cause that dip in their price. i see the cars vandalized in my area. i agree that it will be at least 5-10 years before the driverless car is socially acceptable and becomes the norm. but i think uber is waiting and seeing elon musk fail with Waymo and if he suceeds then theyll just copy and paste his business strategy and become a competitor

[@iamkevinashworth]

Waymo fares going up on L.A. I have used Waymo many times and I like it, but it costs more now than earlier in the year.

[@alexhein6386]

it'll go down over time.

[@unrivaled]

That's the very risk they face. Overtime lower rates, fewer human drivers and uber's supply becomes more concentrated.

[@K-Hopeful]

Wait and see how Waymo does in the winter in heavy snow … LA is great, but bring it to the Midwest and will see if the technology holds up

[@PSSavant]

Uber is global, it's silly to think that Miami affects it's profits.

[@ILoveTinfoilHats]

It's symbolic. If waymo can grow that fast with more profitability it means future doom for Uber

[@alexhein6386]

I think it's because Waymo is getting so big and that autonomy is safer than someone driving an uber. I've had uber drivers who speed and who are weird.

[@kindlyignore]

It won't. Investors are irrational. Hence good time to buy

[@HowardRoark1]

The market looks forward. Go ahead and buy the value trap

[@vrafa1]

Thanks!

[@unrivaled]

You bet!

[@wise_one45]

I dont think you mentioned the global scale of uber and how it would be a challenge from a regulatory point of view for waymo to scale. Right now in the US they have been given that freedom and that is in some cities. What happens outside the cities, and the rest of the world.

[@unrivaled]

Very good pushback! I think the concern is that the technology is clearly going to get rolled out this next decade around the world and how it plays out increases the uncertainty of Uber's long-term durability especially if consumers start going directly to a Waymo or Tesla app.

[@Visionary-t1k]

Uber is a company that is constantly evolving and the CEO has excellent vision along with excellent business acumen. Uber will not get left behind you can bet on that!! Waymo will continue to operate in particular geo fenced locations only. I can sit here and think of hundreds of scenarios that the AV can’t handle in modern day traffic. They will not make a significant impact for at least 10 years. Could it cut into Ubers pie a sliver…. sure… but Dara will get that figured out (possible future partnerships). Also unfortunately all it will take is one deadly accident that’s widely publicized for people to shy away from AVs.

[@unrivaled]

Very reasonable take!

[@Visionary-t1k]

For the record I’m all for AVs. I was just commenting from the aspect of an investor. Unfortunately for Uber shareholders any slight mention of AV companies progress sends the shares tumbling. Positive Uber news only appears to move the needle slightly higher. Even the outstanding Uber quarterly reports are being dissected and made to be a negative . The bar for the earnings is being set so high now it’s gonna be difficult to keep beating. The stock appears to be very susceptible to shorting which also hurts.

[@Tokyo_1031]

I believe with this rapid expansion of Waymo, Uber drivers are having a sense of fear and will eventually find that it is no longer worth to drive for Uber since the market will be disrupted. In turn that would affect Ubers bottom line. One because Waymo is taking ridership. Two because not as many drivers are working to bring Ubers cashflow I’m actually shocked that Waymo is planning to start testing in 2025 and opening to the public in 2026 in Miami. Yes it’s geo fenced areas but their growth has only been exponential. They have the backing of Google. Only thing that could really hurt them is logistical problems and or any high profile accidents.

[@MegaStoneTV]

Uber is also invested in moove

[@Viv8ldi]

Whsts moove

[@JM-ev3ij]

My thing is why are people worried about Waymo taking Ubers share when Waymo chose to partner with Uber to begin with. Not only that they are poised to benefit sooner than later, and not to mention, they can partner with every rideshare company that comes out to provide the benefit.

[@dc1219]

I can see uber being the technology business behind the SDVs. As tesla and google why would you not utilise 160m user base? Uber will run a small fleet of autonomous vehicles but also keep driver taxi's. You'll have a demographic of customers that will want the comfort of a driver.

[@T____W____7777]

I think self driving cars are a niche market. They’re a cool invention that people can ooh and ah at like you said, but I don’t see it working nationwide. There’s some major cities, like LA where it has the right combination of money and interest in that kind of stuff where I think it can work. But I don’t see smaller big cities like catching on as much. I think this is more of a tech fad like electric cars, that has a niche and maybe a dedicated following, but not something I’d be willing to risk long term investment. All that said, I think it’s a good time to jump on the wagon, you just have to know when to jump off.

[@Willyama]

🤡

[@CancelIFR]

My biggest hang up is that Uber as the aggregator might not work long term, as AI assistants become real assistants and people become app agnostic. Imagine there's 20 individual robots taxi companies and you tell Siri to book your ride. You don't really care what company Siri books. If you have a bad experience, you tell Siri to never book that company again. Centralized apps and networks might be obsolete in 5 years.

[@Schmokercraft]

What you’ll find is consolidation among apps. Uber and a couple others will be the main options in 5 years.

[@philippgrinstein7060]

Thank you very much! I delayed it enough and as of today I joined your subscription service!

[@unrivaled]

Welcome aboard!

[@bobjohnson1737]

i agree with 95% of what you're saying Daniel - here's the only caveat, if Tesla chooses not to be on uber and lyft, and they have millions of cars on the road and theyre selling robotaxis so uber and lyft drivers can make money using FSD, then Uber and lyft are completely disrupted because they cannot get to those pennies on the dolllar costs with Waymo as a partner.

[@kurniawanms2]

TSLA robotaxi is just a dream

[@sitarang07]

there are no drivers in FSD only car owners and what makes you believe Tesla is going to be so generous to let all these people make low risk passive income without any risk? Consider that very high percentage of Tesla owner don’t buy or subscribe to FSD and are not interested in using their car for a cab…

[@Watdamarin]

For Tesla to disrupt uber/lyft it needs FSD to be able to take anyone anywhere and safely FSD isn’t ready for that and won’t be for at least 5-10 years plus Tesla needs it to be profitable which won’t happen any time soon. Uber has time to fight off being disrupted but will they that’s the question for now Uber is fine

[@stocksaihub]

There is always a demand and supply, Uber has the demand just like Google search has even though bing is offering ChatGPT. I am not saying Google search will not be impacted but it will take years for significant portion of users to switch. It will always be like Tesla partnering with Uber instead of building its ride sharing app. Becauseeee, never bet against companies which become a verb. Search = Google and Taxi = Uber

[@SwingingInTheHood]

@@Watdamarin Au contraire, mon frere. Elon Must recently announced that he expects FSD to surpass human drivers in safety by the 3nd quarter of 2025. If you Google videos of users who have been using FSD 13 over the past few months, you will see that the consensus is this is going to happen. And soon.

[@philjans1]

Excellent like always 👍

[@mikecole1664]

Uber replaced Taxis. They’ll likely get their own autonomous cars or exclusive partnership imo (hope) 😂

[@saberdz8191]

that's for sure , they are not gonna keep watching

[@JorgeRamos-ix1jm]

Yes, but their entire business model needs to make a gigantic change and that is not always easy. Ask Intel...

[@saberdz8191]

@@JorgeRamos-ix1jm that's very true , but i think uber will be part of robotaxis if not the dominant as you know they are partners with waymo , and recently uber made new partnership in dubai , but still the valuation of the stock is not tempting in my opinion

[@K-Hopeful]

Robots won’t ever replace human. Uber won’t be disrupted! Waymo works well in LA and Miami, but bring them to the winter States and will see how they do in the heavy snow.

[@CaneBTC]

If you think Waymo with its crappy tech (human drivers take over remote often) has a chance to go global, you likely have never traveled, not even Teslas tech would work outside NA.

[@kindlyignore]

True. I live in London and self driving is banned, even in a self driving vehicle. This is not happening outside of US for a long long time, if it ever happens.

[@CaneBTC]

@@kindlyignore London is a great example, but even that is on easy mode if you compare to like Mumbai or Nairobi, they are eons away from actual self driving. Although NA might be enough though stock price wise

[@matthewkeron1448]

Its a classic innovators dilema similar to what google is facing with chatGPT. The answer to these dilemas is thr company under seige MUST lean into thr innovation as much as they can or theyre toast (think kodak and digital cameras). If uber dont find a way to partner with an AV company they are done for in the long run. Short term its unlikely youll see waymo have any impact on uber for atleast another 5-10 years so this could be a good buying op for a short term play but definitely not long term.

[@vitolazlo5767]

I just do not see UBER making it. I think they will be disrupted. It won't happen for a while but who needs to think about that. There are other opportunities.

[@AG-en5y]

Surprising uber not asking all the drivers to sync all their drivers’ cameras to build an a.i

[@watchgagootz]

Waymo doesn’t need uber.

[@chillywilly9585]

Once tesla has enough cars. There is no reason to partner with uber. They can ceushs them. Cost per ride is 30-50 cents at scale per mile.

[@WealthyChronicle]

Interesting perspective! But do you think Uber's partnership with Waymo is a smart move, or are they just delaying the inevitable? 🤨

[@batmonybatmon2023]

Grab at 3 was an easy buy you missed it

[@dareeltoro6681]

Everyone keeps mentioning autonomous driving as the main thread to Uber. This is not even close to happen at a high scale.

[@unrivaled]

The concern is that they'll grow exponentially and start disrupting one lucrative market at a time. Phoenix, Los Angeles today, tomorrow Miami and Tokyo...

[@Nilcha-2]

Waymo is more dangerous to Tesla than Uber

[@philippgrinstein7060]

Hey Daniel, is anyone who is subscribed to your service is part of the ''UNRIVALED NATION'' or only those who have the premium (discord included) subscription tier?

[@unrivaled]

Discord is only for the Premium tier, but any paying subscriber is part of the UNRIVALED NATION!

[@watchgagootz]

Smoke and mirrors. What is the gross and net.

[@mattbeliaew912]

Tesla will be the one to disrupt Uber, not Waymo.

[@MeBee-fl2ow]

Uber is market leader and will be leading for the next years

[@ericjon257]

Can you do an evaluation video on $NBIS Nebius Group N.V. Shs formally Yandex.

[@michaelribeiro2272]

They're already buying back shares

[@crispyduck1706]

Uber need to partner with Tesla or they are going to be toast

[@wernerhartwich3303]

I don't see it from Tesla's side. They are not interested, they will release their own app.

[@rogergr5019]

​@wernerhartwich3303 just like in fintech where people state that X would be a payment platform. Elon is screaming for robotaxis for years now, have we seen it yet? No! It will take years and years before this will happen. Also, consider the fact that uber will not just watch tesla eating their lunch. They will implement their own self driving vehicles....think man

[@gergelyovics]

Short Uber

[@johnhuston650]

Uber is investing in Waymo.

[@danapordel1383]

You’re overcomplicating it. Uber isn’t a long-term winner because it lacks unique underlying tech. Spending $10 for a membership won’t build user loyalty-customers will always switch to apps that lower costs. Uber may grow short-term, but it’s bound to lose relevance eventually.

[@jsolo890]

If true, the next question would be how soon is "eventually"? 2, 5-10 years?

[@danapordel1383]

​@jsolo890 They have no moat or protection in any part of their business. Everywhere you go, there are alternatives to Uber for every service they offer. Take Bolt from Estonia, for example-lower taxes and arguably better service in many countries. Why invest in any of them?

[@etiennepoulin7578]

Who want robotaxi ?

[@manfredludtke6006]

Not Waymo, but TSLA ;)

[@asafprivman]

It's all because of Tesla's FSD version 13!!!

[@iakobkv271]

why are you spending your valuable time on dying companies, Daniel

[@unrivaled]

It's funny to call a company growing at 20% with billions in FCF "dying." That said, out of curiosity which companies are you thinking about that are very much alive?

[@iakobkv271]

@@unrivaled biosyent wink wink 😁🤝🏻

[@unrivaled]

:)

[@iakobkv271]

@@unrivaled on a serious note: - it's not an 'obvious growth' story, more like obvious dying story from robotaxis (they have their own but it's not competitive)

[@rogergr5019]

​@@unrivaledexactly my thoughts....❤

[@Oneeyedoyster]

Uber is going the way of blockbuster video

[@riumudamc4686]

Will Uber buy Waymo?

[@alexhein6386]

I think uber and Lyft will buy waymo's self driving tech sensors and cameras

[@jayshankarchandran321]

I would never take a Waymo in my life , we were lucky to be alive after missing a narrow accident.

[@BK-sh3wx]

man up

[@asafprivman]

Wooohoooo!