Ukraine, and Russia's Invasion Paths

[@kostian8354]

Looking back at your videos after 9 months. It's awesome how accurate it is.

[@FRMaverick6]

Doing the same 2y laters, to see if he's really reliable. Very interesting so far

[@zwieblekopf]

Your arrows don't line up with the map, starting about 2:50. Probably a function of going split screen with video of you.

[@pernaboys]

Your analyses are always very informative and on point. Thanks and please upload more videos

[@godzillasmother]

`Went back and read the Absent Superpower, damn you were right. You saw this coming.

[@neilskinkle3019]

Thank for for fixing your audio, I can hear you in my right headphone again

[@pyrioncelendil]

From the video quality, I'd say he's recording this on his phone, as opposed to a more dedicated recording studio setup.

[@alyenasheremeta4948]

There’s an invasion and you’re concerned about your headphones..

[@sullyman2093]

@@alyenasheremeta4948 correct.

[@dustinhaack9519]

What flies behind Zeihan at 1:24? It looks like a bubbl!

[@christianlibertarian5488]

Thanks Peter. At least somebody is informing us without a political end.

[@castlemappe22]

3:32 Odessa is NOT at the mouth of the Dnieper River, Kherson is. Look it up. This is not the only mistake I noticed in your video

[@sh8zen]

@Castle Mappe. You're both right and wrong. Right from a technical perspective but wrong from a practical perspective. Certainly Kherson is on the river and Odessa is down the coast a bit. However, barges filled with wheat/grain bound for export float down the Dnipro (Dnieper) and simply pass Kherson for the most part and trudge on to Odessa. So as a river transport concept (the point the video was making), Odessa is the destination for most goods being transported down the river. As a port, Odessa does 5 times the volume that Kherson does and can accommodate larger vessels. From a practical perspective, the point the video makes is accurate.

[@WinstonCodesOn]

What happens when the losing side depletes their conventional capability? I think that's something we all have to worry about everywhere. I'd be really interested in hearing what Peter thinks is the possibility of regime change in Russia. Nobody seems to want this war except for Putin.... or is there an appetite for this within Russia?

[@darkfool2000]

Not likely. The Russian elite is 100% on board, and the dearth of Russian youths (usually a catalyst for regime change) is part of the reason why Russia is invading right now, because it won't be able to later. The war was inevitable, because Russia has always been compelled to push westward to the Carpathians to secure reasonably defensible borders. It was either this invasion, or watch as the Russian population shrinks and loses the ability to pacify the non-russians in Russia.

[@markpukey8]

It's a good question. I think darkfool's comment highlights your question. Russian "elites" are pretty much entirely Putin's own created oligarchs. They do what he tells them if they want to remain "elite". But Russia has had peasant revolts before, and this situation seems the sort that might push them over the edge. And I have not heard many "man in the street" interviews with any Russians in the past few weeks. I can understand their reluctance to tell a stranger "Sure I hate Putin! Who doesn't !?", but at the same time, where were the journalists at least trying to do this? I have no idea what Russian popular sentiment is like right now.

[@bissemgill475]

@@darkfool2000 are you sure the russian elite are on board? The incoming sanctions have to be terrible for their oligarchical power moving forward

[@darkfool2000]

@@bissemgill475 What do you mean, that's 40 million more people to exploit. The oligarchs who weren't on board have already left for greener pastures. You keep thinking that this is just Putin, but that's wrong, this is Russia's entire military elite and intelligence agency elite. This isn't some passion project by Putin, this is Russia's main foreign policy dating back to the founding of Russia. Expand westward to the Carpathians to secure defensible borders.

[@JoeMisseri]

@@darkfool2000 "the Russian elite" are also all of Putin's demographic and age. This entire war, if it's not too premature to call it that, is premised on the Past. This feels like old men, living out youthful fantasies of resentment coming to fruition. Their Future generation(s) are going to be left holding the sh*tbag in the end.

[@trevorbyrne8578]

I thought he was going somewhere with the whole "nighttime warfare" thing. So, is the implication that the US could equip the Ukranian resistance with nighttime capabilities, thus giving them an advantage? If so, I say do it!

[@mattmilliken2520]

Your arrows got shifted to the right

[@pyrioncelendil]

And it's worth noting that the shift perfectly fits how much screen space had to be displaced for his camera view.

[@songio77]

Please correct, Ukraine is a bit less than Texas in size. Not twice as much.

[@gviehmann]

Yes, it´s 695.662 km² (Texas) vs. 603.700 km² (Ukraine before 2014).

[@MrMdhaas]

Doesn’t seem like the guy knows what he’s talking about

[@christianlibertarian5488]

@@MrMdhaas Read his book. He predicted this years ago.

[@MrMdhaas]

@Christian Libertarian when you say predicted this, what are you referring to? It's been obvious that Russia was cornered and time wasn't on their side. they had to take measures sooner than later. Is it hard to predict something that Dugin laid out?

[@christianlibertarian5488]

@@MrMdhaas Zeihan relies on demographics and geography. Based on a collapsing demographic, and the geography of a large country, he said in his book that Russia would have to do something within 10 years (the book is 5 years old), and that the Ukraine was one of the most likely targets.

[@joeyjojojunior1794]

3:13 Am I wrong that he means 2014 invasion instead of 2007 invasion? And also he means that Russia succeeded in conquering Crimea "in it's entirety", and not Ukraine.

[@christianlibertarian5488]

Yep. Not enough coffee, I guess.

[@JiffDivingboard5]

@1:24 what flies behind Peter?! RUSSIAN SPY PAPER AIRPLANE!

[@blockchain793]

never under-estimate KGB spies

[@walterbates1654]

Feeding the KZbin algorithm. Great info. Thank you.

[@JD..........]

Would love regular updates on this.

[@florimon42]

Wow this aged really well, spot on in many cases

[@nicholask5078]

good video - big issue is to see how Europe can deal without Russian energy; good news for US energy producers! unfortunately years of poor strategic thinking about energy in Europe has left Europe poorly placed for this conflict I am less optimistic that Ukraine will resist an occupation effectively

[@robertm.9515]

Yep. Ukraine transport fees (unless if Russia fully takes it over) and US gas are the big winners in Nord Stream 2 cancelation. I can't believe Germany energy and foreign policy has been this bad to think they could depend on Russia. Russia doesn't care as much, it is a loss, but higher prices help them and they are building pipelines east.

[@urtyp6596]

Merkel was the worst

[@joeyjojojunior1794]

I, too, give Ukraine months not years until submission.

[@christianlibertarian5488]

@@joeyjojojunior1794 4 weeks max.

[@vladyslavsvystunov]

@@christianlibertarian5488 It’s been 26 days. Hello from free Ukraine. Ukrainian cossacks not the guys anyone should mess with))

[@darkfool2000]

I wonder what's going to happen to Transcarpathia. Even if Russia conquers almost all Ukraine, I don't think they would be able to cross the Carpathians, and so it will be interesting to see what happens to that region if/when Kiev falls.

[@innosam123]

Imagine if Hungary tries to take it back as ‘historical Hungarian land’.

[@darkfool2000]

@@innosam123 Well if Kiev falls, either the Ukrainian government will relocate to there or some other country is going to have to step in and govern it, or maybe what remains of the local government will govern itself, but either way its status will be contentious and perhaps a precursor to other wars in Europe not directly initiated by Russia.

[@donkeysaurusrex7881]

Attention! Attention! Will the nearest Hapsburg please assume the throne?

[@Stevenpwalsh]

Even the taliban has night vision (which admittedly came from us), I just can't believe the Russians aren't equipped....

[@XxXBalderXxX]

There's more to night-fighting than NVGs.

[@pyrioncelendil]

Oh I figure they have the tech, they just can't justify using it and potentially losing it vs what they regard as a rump state. Were they going up against a peer opponent, sure, but they're not.

[@zacharyruiz1542]

They have the economy of Spain but more people they have the tech not enough to equip 200k troops

[@temugenie2698]

You were very correct.

[@matejtanko5117]

is this your official yt channel? I'd like to subscribe if it is.

[@freshprince512]

Why isn't the Russian military equipped for night fighting?

[@ackwebde]

I would assume it would be costs. Night vision is not cheap, even the russian produced versions for infantry use. But for combined warfare operations (especially planes etc.) you need more expensive equipment they can't field in mass. The majority of their tanks are old T-72s with 2-4 stacks of upgrades, they just could not afford the new stuff.

[@pyrioncelendil]

@@ackwebde I have to figure Russia will be fielding old antiquated stuff because they're not going up against a peer opponent nor are they expecting to. If Ukraine were a NATO country, they'd have had to pull out all the stops to steamroll not just Ukrainian forces but deployed American, British, and Polish forces. It would've been the absolute latest and greatest kit. So in the sense of it being costs, it's less a case of Russia not being able to afford it and more Russia not being able to justify it vs just Ukraine. And if they lose any old hardware in the process, it's less old stuff that they still have to maintain, so I doubt they'd be that broken up about it.

[@sunes3049]

I think this aged quilte well :)

[@andrew.r.lukasik]

That was insightful, thanks.

[@yuriynestor]

Ukraine is not twice the size of Texas, it’s slightly smaller than Texas. Otherwise, I enjoy your videos.

[@george.carlin]

Bingo. Ukraine is a bit above 600.000 Sq. km. Texas is almost 700.000. France is 550.000 Sq. km.

[@milaemouse8442]

you either have lots of spirit orbs around you, or your hotel is overrun with bugs. :/

[@kchall5]

What happens if Putin's Ukraine gambit becomes a long, protracted grind? Russia has formidable military assets, but do they possess the capacity to maintain, replace, and reinforce them? Perhaps the big question is WWJD (What Will Jinping Do). Will Xi cozy up to Putin or just squeeze him from the other end? Putin has staked his entire legacy and survival on this. If he falls short he may find himself on the business end of a short rope.

[@darkfool2000]

Ukraine is flatter than Kansas. A prolonged war is very unlikely. Somebody is going to get flanked and encircled.

[@darkfool2000]

@@choomaque Really what? So I was wrong, the war in Ukraine is a grinding stalemate with no end in sight, with neither side having a real advantage.

[@jeanieoates]

The US has 1,782 billion cubic ft. of natural gas in storage. Where do you get the fact that it’s all claimed and unavailable? The price of natural gas in the US is incredibly low because of the excess storage levels.

[@FRMaverick6]

Yep, very nice prediction

[@thomasbakpedet]

No Ukraine is not twice the size of Texas...where do you get your statistics from? Texas is 695,662km2, Ukraine 603,548 km². Texas is bigger.

[@adamren7467]

Fact: everything is bigger in Texas, 'statistically' it's larger than Australia and Alaska combined...

[@jornstache2793]

Not so optimistic thoughts about the prospects of military resistance from Germany: 1. it's an urban industrialised European populace, even if they want to, they are relatively unlikely to wage a big war and afterwards a partisan war; 2. all the 200,000 soldiers in weapons, I fear, are not more than a lame duck, without a functioning air force and air defense systems, which the Russians claim to have already taken out completely after six hours of fighting. I fear, with them it will be something similar as with the Armenians last year - they thought they were so good fighters and then came the drones and within some days they had to practically surrender.

[@kevinraper114]

:44 whoa there buddy Texas is a little bigger than the Ukraine according to the data I see.

[@hallaisback]

Yang Zeihan 2028

[@garryrichardson4572]

Some bridges are gone.

[@chakani0001]

France is in the smartest position, with 70% nuclear. (not "nu-cu-lar").

[@JoeMisseri]

They have the military record to prove it.

[@Nanamka]

And it was exactly like that

[@douglassun8456]

It looks like Peter is transmitting from an undisclosed location in the middle of the night rather than a hotel room first thing in the morning. Keeping his voice down just makes it eerier, like the Resistance trying to evade the Gestapo while sending secret messages to MI-6. But anyway, I am grateful for someone smart who is taking the long view on a morning when everything is breathless headlines that tell you nothing more than, "there are explosions in the Ukraine." To add to that, my understanding is that the Russian military hasn't succeeded in weaning itself off of conscription. So I am wondering about how much of Russia's occupation force will consist of barely trained and poorly motivated draftees. And if the Ukrainians remain committed to fighting for their sovereignty, what happens in Russia as those conscripts come back in body bags? There's already domestic opposition in Russia; casualties will only make Putin's domestic position less tenable as former supporters bail on him.

[@MrMdhaas]

Boy that’s awfully optimistic, basically foolish.

[@douglassun8456]

@@MrMdhaas Foolishly optimistic? Perhaps. But you may have missed my use of the conditional "if." I'm simply riffing on arguments that Mr. Zeihan has made elsewhere. And what has happened in the last few days? We know the Ukrainians have decided to fight for their sovereignty. We know that the Russians are taking casualties, and they aren't having things all their own way. The truth, almost certainly, is somewhere between what the Ukraine Defense Ministry claims and the Russian government grudgingly admits, but by definition the Russians are running through their prewar men and material. We know that there are serious antiwar demonstrations inside Russia already, and Russia is so diplomatically isolated that not even Kazakhstan and Chechnya are giving their full support. So we'll see how foolishly optimistic I am.

[@douglassun8456]

Here's something else that occurs to me: I was born when the Cold War was barely one-third of the way through. If you had told me in 1979 that the Red Army would withdraw from Afghanistan in disgrace and that I would live to see the dissolution of the USSR, I would have called you foolish and overly optimistic. Putin's regime isn't nearly as powerful as was the Soviet Union, and it's even more fragile. I think I understand what Putin is up to here, but it's a desperate act.

[@MrMdhaas]

@@douglassun8456 obviously the long term prospects for Russia are dim. However in the short term Russia will definitely achieve their objectives in the Ukraine, I guarantee it. And I can guarantee the reports of these Hollywood victories, ghost of Kyiv, the soldiers on the island, super models holding AR 15s are fake and expected propaganda

[@douglassun8456]

@@MrMdhaas I don't give any credence to the "Ghost of Kiev" stuff either. But if the Russian army had control of Kiev and Kharkov we'd have heard about it by now. If you agree that Russia's long-term prospects are dim, then we're arguing over whether the glass is half-full or half-empty. While I don't have access to Russian planning documents, I strongly suspect that Putin's short-term goals have already been frustrated because he needed a quick, decisive victory to maintain the illusion of strength and dominance. It has already reached the point where he can't flex about how things are going, he has to resort to screeching about putting his nuclear forces on alert. To use a sports betting analogy, Putin's team may be winning but he needs to cover the spread to win the bet, and that's already beyond his reach. Remember what happened in 1939-1940: The USSR "won" the Winter War in that they got concessions from Finland, but the Red Army showed weakness and this helped convince Hitler to launch Barbarossa. And while the Soviets "won" that war, Russia's demographics are still paying the price for it today.

[@lolololololo97]

I think your a little optimistic on resistance. Historically the vast majority of people don’t do much of anything during invasions and occupation.

[@nwj486]

You’re making the mistake of thinking the dynamic is simply support/oppose. The Russians need active support from the Ukrainian population if this occupation is going to succeed, they’re not even close to having that level of support. It’s not good enough for the Ukrainians to be indifferent to control by either Kyiv/Moscow. You’ll probably have a breakdown of ~10% actively opposing Russia (in close proximity to their bases of support), ~10% actively supporting Russia (but mostly from breakaway regions that are, as noted, a Texas away from their geographic bases of support), and 80% that are “indifferent” and just want to be left alone by both sides. Those are not good odds for an invading force, as insurgencies (especially those being equipped by higher-tech countries) always have the handicap in these sorts of occupations.

[@overengineer7691]

boo hoo Germany has to turn the nuclear reactors back on. How awful it must feel to wrong.

[@darkfool2000]

It will be amusing as the traffic light coalition bend backwards to justify why it has to completely reverse course.

[@urtyp6596]

@@darkfool2000 yup

[@loganprichard1439]

'It's not like 10 years ago, the Ukrainian citizens will put up a lot of resistance!' Idk the videos I've seen the Ukrainian guys just talk some shit to the Russian soldiers then go on about their day.

[@poruto22]

Is there even a possibility of nuclear deployment?

[@jfarmer1711]

That is the concern based on Putin's implied threat.

[@joeyjojojunior1794]

5:27 "Pacify"? Id est "Launching projectiles through Ukrainian heads."

[@suchendnachwahrheit9143]

Ukraine is about as big as texas, not twice, no?

[@xyzero1682]

Great video, get some sleep, welcome to WW3 everyone.

[@daves2520]

Something overlooked though is our provocation of Russia. We allowed two close neighbors of Russia, Poland and Romania, to join NATO. We also placed missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, in both of the aforementioned countries. And lest we forget, Russia was invaded by the West twice in the 20th century. Both invasions were led by Germany; the second one accompanied by Hungary and Romania. So with these considerations in mind, it makes sense that Russia does not want the Ukraine to also become a member of NATO. How would we feel if Canada became allied with Russia and the latter then placed missiles in the former. No, we should stop poking the bear and mind our own business for a change.

[@b46ene]

Stop placing an equal sign between RU and US and comparing placing missiles in Romania with missiles in Canada. Russia is not the super power that it was in the past. In addition to that, countries around RU such as Poland and Romania have suffered for decades under russia nothing but death destruction and suffering. Everywhere russia stepped there was nothing but suffering and none of these places are going back to russia willingly.

[@daves2520]

@@b46ene I think that you are overlooking the bullying that the United States has been doing around the world in order to maintain its worldwide hegemony. We place financial sanctions on countries simply because we do not like their foreign policy - this is an abuse of the unique position in which we have been placed since WWII. That is, at least for now, the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency; but even that is in jeopardy as we pile up enormous amounts of debt (about 30 trillion) so far.

[@bjensen]

If the US treated Canada the way Russia treats the Ukraine, your point wouldn't be so silly, and Canada would then be smart to ally itself with our enemies.

[@daves2520]

@@bjensen Nonetheless, the U.S. has placed missiles in countries quite close to Russia, namely Poland and Romania. Remember the Cuban missile crisis of 1962; we almost went to war with the Soviet Union because they had placed missiles in Cuba. It is not wise to threaten a fellow major, nuclear power like Russia.

[@pietrolofria2100]

No one in the 21st Century wants to invade Russia so those past events are just an excuse to justify Putin's invasion which is how you're wording your argument there.

[@tokbucks]

One example is Loitering ammunition from Drone, and look Ukraine is now committing war crimes search YT for "Russia says Tochka-U rocket was fired at Donetsk by Ukraine armed forces, kills 20 including kids."

[@tokbucks]

He conveniently forgot to mention BioLabs operating in Ukraine for 17 years, as per Tucker from FoxNews. Example "Tucker: Why are we funding this?" Another side effect, although Zeihan did mention that in full detail, so I give him full credit where it is due inflation=> "Tucker: This could very easily get worse." From Zeihan's search on YT for "Russia Sanctions and Nickel." I personally think Tucker is very eloquent, but they are both excellent. I am all for helping Ukrainian people, but our funds get directed to stuff like this. So sad, search YT for "Al Qaeda Fighters Join Ukraine."

[@BioLogicalNerd]

Ah yes, biolabs... Quite an atrocious defence of an invasion- even if Ukraine had biolabs to create the dreaded combat mosquitos, so, if, and, what? Also if you're relying on Trucker for your info regarding Ukraine, you've got a lot of problems coming your way.

[@laszlokovacs6154]

How wrong is this guy. 😂 He predicted five years ago the collapse of Russia 🤣

[@Starbuckanear2012]

There is nothing more dangerous than a wounded animal. This IS the collapse of Russia under Putin.

[@pyrioncelendil]

He predicted Russia's inevitable collapse if it didn't attempt to fix its immediate neighborhood with military force.

[@GeorgePennellMartin]

Stable and Normal states don’t invade their neighbours. This is a symptom of Russia’s degeneration.

[@sshaygan6726]

What about Taiwan Peter? Please discuss that in your next video as Chinese occupation of Taiwan would likely be 10 times worse for the world than the occupation of Ukraine

[@vanillasnowx]

Youre just gonna ignore the conflict zone he suggested that might occur in eastern europe? (Which is happening as we speak) What comes first a country collapse or a war?

[@xltoth]

Very poor analysis

[@vibratoryuniverse308]

Irony